Dynamic evolution patterns of the degree of ground resistivity anisotropy and the seismogenic process

Following a new train of thinking, this paper has explored first the potential information in the ground resistivity data observed by the existing geoelectric observation system, investigated and proposed a new dimensionless geoelectric precursor factor, the degree of ground resistivity anisotropy, S, and studied the characteristics of dynamic evolution pattern of S during the seismogenic process. The results show that, during the seismogenic process, the degree of ground resistivity anisotropy (S) displays a process of 'normal' →'abnormal strengthening (amplitude, range)' →abnormal weakening' → 'earthquake occurrence'→ 'normal'. The earthquake would occur at the time when the S value has entered the late stage of strengthening and turns to weaken and in the gradient belt on the margin of S anomaly region. The dynamic evolution pattern of S reflects the changes of the tectonic stress field during the seismogenic process. Therefore, it would be possible to trace the process of earthquake generation and occurrence from the dynamic evolution pattern of S so as to service earthquake prediction.     

On the relation of moderate-short term anomaly of earth resistivity to earthquake

IntroductionMany anomalies due to earthquake have been recorded in observation of earth-resistivity for30 years and over, which showed that there objectively existed the anomalies of each-resistivity.The crustal strUcture and medium conditions are quite complex, so the complexity of the temporal,spatial and intensive development of the anomalies is inevitable. Both of time and amplitUde ofanomalies among some stations near an epicenter are different (even among different observational directi…     

A discussion on the records of water level ‘precursors’ in Well Shuozhou, Shanxi Province

A lot of slow fluctuations of water level have been observed in the original recording maps of subsurface fluid in Well Shuozhou, Shanxi Province. Some typical recording maps of the “precursors” are introduced in the paper and the features of the “precursors” recorded by the well are analyzed. The results show that 38% strong earthquakes possess this kind of record, which has a fluctuation period arranging from several to tens of minutes and appear mostly two days before the earthquakes. Moreover, the mechanism, transmission and responding conditions of well water level are discussed, as well as the scientific meaning and practical value of the “precursor” of the well water level in earthquake predictions. Foundation item: State Natural Science Foundation of China (19973011).     

Study on the pattern and mode of vertical crustal deformation during the seismogenic process of intraplate strong earthquakes

Ｓｔｕｄｙｏｎｔｈｅｐａｔｔｅｒｎａｎｄｍｏｄｅｏｆｖｅｒｔｉｃａｌｃｒｕｓｔａｌｄｅｆｏｒｍａｔｉｏｎｄｕｒｉｎｇｔｈｅｓｅｉｓｍｏｇｅｎｉｃｐｒｏｃｅｓｓｏｆｉｎｔｒａｐｌａｔｅｓｔｒｏｎｇｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓ杨国华，桂昆长，巩曰沐，杨春花，韩...     

A kind of information on short-term and imminent earthquake precursors—research on atmospheric electric field anomalies before earthquakes

The long-time practice of observational research on earthquake prediction has shown that the information on short-term and imminent earthquake precursors can hardly be detected, but it is very important for practical and effective earthquake prediction. The result of analysis and study in this paper has shown that the anomaly of quasi-static atmospheric electric field may be a kind of reliable information on short-term and imminent earthquake precursors. On such a basis, the 20 years’ continuous and reliable data of atmospheric electric field observed at the Baijiatuan seismic station are used to study the correlation between the anomalies in seismic activity and relative quiet periods bear on the occurrence of near earthquakes within 200 km range around Beijing after the Tangshan earthquake. The observational results recently reported before hand in written form and earthquakes that actually occurred in near field in corresponding time periods are compared and analyzed. The efficacy of these written prediction opinions about near earthquakes in the recent 10 years is tested. From the test results, the brilliant prospect that the anomaly of quasi-static atmospheric electric field may really become a reliable mark for making short-term and imminent earthquake predictions is discussed. Besides, as a preliminary step, some judgment indexes for predicting earthquakes by use of the observational data of atmospheric electric field before earthquakes are put forward. In the last part, it is pointed out that it would be possible to obtain more believable judgment indexes for determining the three elements of near earthquakes before greater earthquakes (M _S≥5) only if a relatively reasonable station network (2–4 stations every 10 000 km²) is deployed and further investigation is made. Contribution No. 97A0040, Institute of Geophysics, State Seismological Bureau, China. This subject is sponsored by Program No. 95-04-05-01-04, State Seismological Bureau, China.     

The characteristics of variation in inhomogeneity of temporal-spatial distribution of short to imminent precursors before strong earthquakes

IntroductionShort-to-imminentprecursorsstillarethemainbasisforearthquakepredictioninthepresenttime.Strongquakes,especiallythosewithnoforeshocks,canbeforecastedtosomeextentbasedonabundantshoat-to-imminentprecursorsandcombiningwiththemid-to-longtermvar...     

A possible UL Fseismice lectro-magnetic emission

ＡｐｏｓｓｉｂｌｅＵＬＦｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｅｌｅｃｔｒｏ－ｍａｇｎｅｔｉｃｅｍｉｓｓｉｏｎＸｉｎｇ－ＣａｉＬＩ；（李兴才）Ｈｕｉ－ＸｉｎＣＡＯ；（曹惠馨）Ｔｉｅ－ＨｏｎｇＹＵ；（俞铁宏）ａｎｄＺｈｉ－ＹｏｎｇＣＨＥＮ；（＠２陈智勇）（Ｉｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏ...     

Analysis on the master event method and precise location of 1997 Jiashi strong earthquake swarm in western China

IntroductionEarthquakelocationisoneoftheoldestinverseproblemsinseismology.Preciseearthquakelocationisthebasisoftheseismicresearch.Theprecisionoftheearthquakelocationdependsonmanyfactors,suchasthequalityofthestationnetwork,theprecisionoftheseismicwavearrivaltimemeasured,andtheknowledgeaboutthecrustalvelocitystructureandsoon.AccordingtotheresearchmadebyZhao(1983),thehorizontallocationerroroftheeanhquakelocatedbythetraditionalabsolutemethodinthecentralareaofNorthChinaisabouttZkin,intheedgeregio…     

AIC analysis of categorizing data for earthquakes and velocity structures in North China

ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＥａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｉｓａｎｏｕｔｃｏｍｅｏｆｔｅｃｔｏｎｉｃａｃｔｉｖｉｔｙ．Ｉｔｉｓｏｎｅｏｆｔｈｅｍａｉｎｓｔｕｄｙｔａｒｇｅｔｓｏｆｓｅｉｓｍｏｌｏｇｉｓｔｓｔｏｕｎｄｅｒｓｔａｎｄｔｈｅｄｅｅｐｇｅｏｌｏｇｉｃｓｅ...     

Some results of modeling D-D seismogenic pattern by the fracture model experiment of large-scale rock samples (I)

Using the natural limestone samples taken from the field with dimension of 500 mm×500 mm×1 000 mm, the D-D (dilatancy-diffusion) seismogeny pattern was modeled under the condition of water injection, which observes the time-space evolutionary features about the relative physics fields of the loaded samples from deformation, formation of microcracks to the occurrence of main rupture. The results of observed apparent resistivity show: 1 The process of the deformation from microcrack to main rupture on the loaded rock sample could be characterized by the precursory spatial-temporal changes in the observation of apparent resistivity; 2 The precursory temporal changes of observation in apparent resistivity could be divided into several stages, and its spatial distribution shows the difference in different parts of the rock sample; 3 Before the main rupture of the rock sample the obvious “tendency anomaly” and “short-term anomaly” were observed, and some of them could be likely considered as the “impending earthquake” anomaly precursor of apparent resistivity. The changes and distribution features of apparent resistivity show that they are intrinsically related to the dilatancy phenomenon of the loaded rock sample. Finally, this paper discusses the mechanism of resistivity change of loaded rock sample theoretically. This subject is supported by the key project during the 8-th “Five Year Plan” from the State Science and Technology Commission of China (85-04-04).     

Research on the completeness of earthquake data in the Chinese mainland (I) — North China

In terms of the temporal-spatial distribution features of earthquakes, we study the completeness of historical data in North China where there is the most plenty historical data and with the longest record history by some methods of analysis and comparison. The results are obtained for events withM _s≥4 3/4 are largely complete since 1484 in North China (except Huanghai sea region and remote districts, such as Nei Mongol Autonomous region), but quakes withM _s≥6 are largely complete since 1291 in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River. Contribution No. 94A0049, Institute of Geophysics, SSB, China. This subject is one of the important projects of the State Seismological Bureau (No. 85-05-01-01-01).     

Differences between magnitudes of Taiwan earthquakes from catalogs of Taiwan and Beijing

IntroductionTaiwanlocatedinthecollisionboundalbetweentheEurasianandthePhilippineSeaplatesisoneofhighseismicityregionsintheworld.HundredsofearthquakeswithM25occurredperyearandmorethan40withM27since1900.Amongtheseevents,shalloweventswithdepthofseveraltensofkilometersandintermediate-deepeventswithdepthof100-200kinexistwhichrepresentsacharacterofthesubductionzone.ThemagnitudesofTaiwaneventslistedinthecatalogofChineseearthquakesaretakenfromsomehistoricaldocumentsandGutenbergandRichter'sworks(19…     

Time distribution characteristics of regional macroseismic activity in the Sichuan-Yunnan region and its significance to mid-long term prediction

IntroductionThe development and occurrence of macroseismic activity come from the specific structUreenvironment and stress condition. So the space-time distribUtion of strong quakes appears to bevery inhomogeneous. Earthquakes with Ms27.0 in a seismicity period presented often a speeding-up pattern with time in different seismic provinces. That is, the cumulative frequency of earthquakes with Ms27.0 increase with exponent N(t)=ae', in a seismicity period (ZHANG, FU, 1989).It means that t…     

Numerical calculations of tectonic stress field of Chinese mainland and its neighboring regions and their applications to explanation of seismic activity

IntroductionChinesemainlandliesinthesoutheastofEurasianPlateandisclampedbyindian,PacificandPhilippineSeaPlates.Besides,itislocatedatbetweenthetwobigseismicactivebeltsintheworldatthesametime.Differingfromtheshowoftwobigseismicbeltswhichhaveseismiczonaldistributionalongplateboundary,Chinesemainlandanditsperipheralareahaveapeculiarcharacter,expressingseismicallylargestrength,highfrequency,widedistribution,shallowfocus,seriousdamage,multiplestyles,extremelynonuniformspace-timedistributionandsoo…     

天山地震活动区地下水中碳同位素的初步研究

介绍了中国新疆维吾尔自治区地震局和乌兹别克斯坦共和国科学院地震研究所近 1 0年来地震科技合作在地下水碳同位素方面的基本研究成果。结合天山主要地震活动区 2 0 0余个水点的碳同位素观测资料 (其中乌鲁木齐地下水中碳同位素资料是第一次公布 ) ,分析了水中碳同位素的区域分布规律、来源及影响因素 ,探讨了碳同位素地震前兆异常的某些特征。     

Dynamic Evolution of Precursory Field and Its Relation With the Group of Strong Earthquakes

Spatial scanning is done for two regions in Chinese Mainland,where displayed a denseprecursory network during 1994～1998.The two regions are the mid-southern segment of theNorth-south seismic belt(20°～35°N,95°～110°E)and North China(36°～42°N,110°～120°E).We took 0.5°×0.5°as a spatial window with a step of 0.25°and 4 months as atemporal window with a step of 1 month.For the two regions,the anomaly density is scannedfrom 1994 and 1995 respectively in the two regions.The precursory anomalies are all fromthe Division of Seismic Trend in China and the Division of Seismic Trend in the Capital Area,Center for Analysis and Prediction,China Seismological Bureau.A seismogenic tectonicmodel is introduced to explain the scanning results.In the model,the frictional strength ofthe focal sources is distributed randomly.After the boundary plate motion rate and all othergeological parameters are given,the stress of the sources in the system changesinhomogenously due to the variation of the frictional streng     

Evolving patterns of the fluids within the TAG hydrothermal field

The mixing of seawater/hydrothermal fluid within the large seafloor hydrothermal sulfide deposits plays a key role in the formation processes of the sulfide deposits. Some issues attract considerable attentions in the study of seafloor hydrothermal system in recent years, such as the relationships among different types of vent fluids, the characteristics of chemical compositions and mineral assemblages of the hydrothermal deposits and their governing factors. Combined with the measured data of hydrothermal fluid in the TAG field, the thermodynamic model of mixing processes of the heated seawater at different temperatures and the hydrothermal fluid is calculated to understand the precipitation mechanism of anhydrite and the genetic relationships between the black and white smoker fluids within the TAG mound. The results indicate that the heating of seawater and the mixing of hydrothermal fluid/seawater are largely responsible for anhydrite precipitation and the temperature of the heated seawater is not higher than 150°C and the temperature of the end-member hydrothermal fluid is not lower than 400°C. Based on the simulated results, the evolving patterns of fluids within the TAG deposit are discussed. The mixed fluid of the end-member hydrothermal fluid and the seawater heated by wall rock undergoes conductive cooling during upflowing within the deposit and forms “White Smoker” eventually. In addition, the end-member hydrothermal fluid without mixed with seawater, but undergoing conductive cooling, vents out of the deposit and forms “Black Smoker”. Supported by China Ocean Mineral Resources Research and Development Association Program (Grant No. DY115-02-1-01) and National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. G2000078503)     

Investigation of rupture process of the 1999 M =5.4 Xiuyan, Liaoning, earthquake sequence

Conclusions The sequence of the November 29, 1999 Xiuyan, Liaoning, earthquake withM _S=5.4 is relocated, and its rupture process is analyzed. Results are as follows: The rupture extended mainly before the January 12, 2000,M _S=5.1 earthquake. There are two phases of rupture extending: The first phase was before the November 29, 1999,M _S=5.4 earthquake, epicenters were situated within a small region with a dimension of about 5 km, and the focal depth increased. It shows that the rupture mainly extended from shallow part to deep in the vertical direction. The second phase was between theM _S=5.4 earthquake and theM _S=5.1 earthquake, earthquakes migrated along southeast, the focal depth decreased. It indicates that the rupture extended along southeast and from deep to shallow part. Foundation item: The Project of “Mechanism and Prediction of the Strong Continental Earthquake” (95-13-05-04). Contribution No. 01FE2017, Institute of Geophysics, China Seismological Bureau.     

基于构造的地震活动参数扫描短期预测方法研究

应用山东省和江苏省地震局“九五”地质研究成果, 在华东地区共选择49条断裂和7个构造块体作为地震活动性研究的构造基础, 选用频度、 ΔT-T、 小震调制比3个参数, 对构造两侧各20 km宽度范围的地震资料进行参数时间扫描。 通过普查, 得到的构造优势映震距离为300 km; 得到了10个敏感构造及其映震特点。 通过对华东地区13个中强地震震例的构造异常的综合分析, 得到如下认识: ① 震前存在场的群体异常特征, 表明华东中强地震“前兆”是在构造应力作用下表现出的、 区域性的整体过程; ② 异常的构造常常分布在震中周围; ③ 地震常常发生在平静异常的构造附近; ④ 高频度异常常常发生在震中外围, 并常具有步进性; ⑤ 震中周围的构造在震前2～3年开始先后不断出现高频和平静异常, 平静后出现多处小震调制比高值是孕震中期向短期过渡的时间转折标志。     

Crustal structure in northern margin of Tianshan mountains and seismotectonics of the 1906 Manas earthquake

Introduction The Tianshan orogenic belt between the Tarim and Junggar basins has re-uplifted in Cenozoic due to the collision and the northwards push-compression of Asia-India plate. The special active tectonic zones have been formed along both south and north margins of the Tianshan mountains (FENG, et al, 1991). The Tianshan seismic belt is one of the major seismic belts in China. A se-ries of strong earthquakes occurred in two flanks of the Tianshan mountains in 20th century, such as …