Structured decision making as a proactive approach to dealing with sea level rise in Florida

Sea level rise (SLR) projections along the coast of Florida present an enormous challenge for management and conservation over the long term. Decision makers need to recognize and adopt strategies to adapt to the potentially detrimental effects of SLR. Structured decision making (SDM) provides a rigorous framework for the management of natural resources. The aim of SDM is to identify decisions that are optimal with respect to management objectives and knowledge of the system. Most applications of SDM have assumed that the managed systems are governed by stationary processes. However, in the context of SLR it may be necessary to acknowledge that the processes underlying managed systems may be non-stationary, such that systems will be continuously changing. Therefore, SLR brings some unique considerations to the application of decision theory for natural resource management. In particular, SLR is expected to affect each of the components of SDM. For instance, management objectives may have to be reconsidered more frequently than under more stable conditions. The set of potential actions may also have to be adapted over time as conditions change. Models have to account for the non-stationarity of the modeled system processes. Each of the important sources of uncertainty in decision processes is expected to be exacerbated by SLR. We illustrate our ideas about adaptation of natural resource management to SLR by modeling a non-stationary system using a numerical example. We provide additional examples of an SDM approach for managing species that may be affected by SLR, with a focus on the endangered Florida manatee.     

Potential impacts of climate change on warmwater megafauna: the Florida manatee example (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

Most discussions of impacts of Climate Change have focused on species from temperate or polar regions. Impacts to species inhabiting warm climates are often believed to be small relative to those of species living in cooler climates. However, it is evident that some tropical/sub-tropical species, including some marine megafauna may face potentially serious consequences from a changing climate. For example, larger, warmer oceans may appear to benefit marine wildlife species like cold-sensitive Florida manatees; however, findings regarding the impact of global climate change (GCC) on estuaries and nearshore areas of Florida indicate that predicted impacts of climate change may be detrimental to endangered manatees. An examination of how projected impacts of climate change will affect threats to manatees and their habitat indicates that threats may be exacerbated. The most significant threats to the Florida manatee population, such as cold-stress, watercraft collisions, and harmful algal blooms likely will increase. Habitat is likely to be degraded under future climate scenarios. Alterations to Florida’s marine environment are ongoing, yet current manatee management plans do not consider the impacts of climate change. The ability of manatees to adapt to change will be influenced by the speed of change and the degree to which human activity impedes or alters it. To minimize impacts to species we must recognize the influence GCC may have on populations, and begin to identify and implement ways to slow or reverse negative impacts arising from it.     

Facilitating adaptation to global climate change: perspectives from experts and decision makers serving the Florida Keys

Slivers of land amidst the world’s third largest barrier reef, the Florida Keys provide unique insights on the emerging challenges associated with adaptation to global climate change. While political will and public awareness are gradually shifting on the imposing risks, analysis of survey responses from experts and decision makers serving the Florida Keys (federal, state and local personnel) reveals insufficient resources, limited direction and leadership, and lack of institutional frameworks to facilitate the adaptation process. Against this backdrop, we investigate experts and decision makers’ interest in an array of adaptation measures including their willingness to support a proposed ‘Community Adaptation Fund’ (CAF) to mobilize resources and lay the foundation for adaptation initiatives in the Florida Keys. We also explore potential funding sources for establishing the proposed CAF, and test the feasibility of a diverse set of financing mechanisms. We discuss implications of our findings in the context of enhancing adaptive capacity in the Florida Keys and beyond.     

Hurricane effects on subtropical pine rocklands of the Florida Keys

We investigate the effects of Hurricane Wilma??s storm surge (23?C24 October 2005) on the dominant tree Pinus elliottii var densa (South Florida slash pine) and rare plant species in subtropical pine rocklands of the Lower Florida Keys. We examine the role of elevation on species abundance in 1995 (Hurricane Betsy in 1965), 2005 (Hurricane Georges in 1998), and 2008 (Hurricane Wilma in 2005) to investigate if hurricanes influence abundance by eliminating plants at lower elevation on Big Pine Key, the largest island in the Lower Florida Keys. We compare densities before and after Hurricane Wilma over the 2005?C2008 sampling period and examine the role of elevation on changes in pine and rare species densities three years after Hurricane Wilma. We use elevation to assess the impact of hurricanes because elevation determined whether a location was influenced by storm surge (maximum surge of 2 m) in the Lower Florida Keys, where pine rocklands occur at a maximum elevation of 3 m. In 1995 (30 years after a major storm), elevation did not explain the abundance of South Florida slash pine or Chamaecrista lineata, but explained significant variation in abundance of Chamaesyce deltoidea. The latter two species are rare herbaceous plants restricted to pine rocklands. In 2008, 3 years after Hurricane Wilma, the positive relationship between elevation and abundance was strongest for South Florida slash pine, C. deltoidea, and C. lineata. Effects of Hurricane Wilma were not significant for rare species with wider distribution, occurring in plant communities adjacent to pine rocklands and in disturbed rocklands. Our results suggest that hurricanes drive population dynamics of South Florida slash pine and rare species that occur exclusively in pine rocklands at higher elevations. Rare species restricted to pine rocklands showed dramatic declines after Hurricane Wilma and were eliminated at elevations <0.5 m. Widely distributed rare species did not show significant changes in density after Hurricane Wilma. Abundance increased with elevation for South Florida slash pine and C. lineata after the hurricane. In an environment influenced by sea level rise, concrete plans to conserve pine ecosystems are warranted. Results from this study will help define conservation strategies by strengthening predictive understanding of plant responses to disturbance in the backdrop of sea level rise.     

Coping with scarcity: The construction of the water conservation imperative in newspapers (1999–2018)

As water-stressed areas are expanding worldwide due to climate change, water conservation has become an important tool for managing water resources in drought contexts. Within a political ecology framework, our research questions the success story of water conservation. To do so, we conducted a quantitative textual analysis of 520 daily local press articles dealing with drought and water issues in Phoenix and Tucson (Arizona, USA). Using two open-access lexicometric software, our analysis traces the rise of the water conservation narrative in the press. Our results show how newspapers can become an instrument of public policies to work towards their social acceptance. Moreover, water conservation is framed as a consensual tool. It reassures that threats associated with water scarcity will be successfully managed to sustain urban growth in arid regions. In this sense, water conservation operates following a logic of fix, in line with the successive hydrosocial fixes that helped the development of arid lands and does not question inherited power structures in water management.     

Impact assessments and policy responses to sea-level rise in three US states: An exploration of human-dimension uncertainties

Uncertainties in the human dimensions of global change deeply affect the assessment and responses to climate change impacts such as sea-level rise (SLR). This paper explores the uncertainties in the assessment process and in state-level policy and management responses of three US states to SLR. The findings reveal important political, economic, managerial, and social factors that enable or constrain SLR responses; question disasters as policy windows; and uncover new policy opportunities in the history of state coastal policies. Results suggest that a more realistic, and maybe more useful picture of climate change impacts will emerge if assessments take more seriously the locally embedded realities and constraints that affect individual decision-makers’ and communal responses to climate change.     

Between the devil and the deep blue sea: Florida��s unenviable position with respect to sea level rise

This paper introduces and summarizes a series of articles on the potential impacts of sea level rise on Florida??s natural and human communities and what might be done to reduce the severity of those impacts. Most of the papers in this special issue of Climatic Change were developed from presentations at a symposium held at Archbold Biological Station in January 2010, sponsored by the Florida Institute for Conservation Science. Symposium participants agreed that adaptation to sea level rise for the benefit of human communities should be planned in concert with adaptation to reduce vulnerability and impacts to natural communities and native species. The papers in this special issue discuss both of these categories of impacts and adaptation options. In this introductory paper, I place the subject in context by noting that that the literature in conservation biology related to climate change has been concerned largely about increasing temperatures and reduced moisture availability, rather than about sea level rise. The latter, however, is the most immediate and among the most severe impacts of global warming in low-lying regions such as Florida. I then review the content of this special issue by summarizing and interpreting the following 10 papers. I conclude with a review of the recommendations for research and policy that were developed from group discussions at the Archbold symposium. The main lesson that emerges from this volume is that sea level rise, combined with human population growth, urban development in coastal areas, and landscape fragmentation, poses an enormous threat to human and natural well-being in Florida. How Floridians respond to sea level rise will offer lessons, for better or worse, for other low-lying regions worldwide.     

中国生物质能源植物种植现状及生物多样性保护

随着国家对可再生能源的重视和扶持,我国以麻疯树等为主的能源植物种植业呈现快速的产业化发展势头.这种生物质能源植物的产业化种植可能会对生物多样性带来影响,如对生态系统与栖息地的影响等,但这些影响还存在着诸多的不确定性和争议.从防患于未然的角度,对我国的生物质能源植物种植业发展提出了相应的建议:在生物多样性敏感地区的种植规划和项目应进行生物多样性影响评价,应尽可能使用当地物种并进行合理的配置,尽可能减少大规模单一物种的种植模式,注意原有生境的完整性和生态廊道的维持;同时,需要政府部门加大科学研究支持力度并做好监测工作,以实现我国生物质能源植物种植业和生物多样性保护的双赢.     

Regional assessment of climate change impacts on coastal and fluvial ecosystems and the scope for adaptation

Ecosystem changes in floodplains could be a major issue during the twenty-first century as designated habitat areas are affected by climate change and floodplain management options. As part of the RegIS project, a Regional Impact Simulator has been developed to investigate these potential changes. This paper presents the methodologies and results of biodiversity metamodels used within the Regional Impact Simulator for two regions of the UK: East Anglia and North West England. Potential impacts and adaptations to future climate and socio-economic scenarios are analysed for three habitat types in floodplains (saltmarsh, coastal grazing marsh and fluvial grazing marsh) and selected species. An important finding is that management choices, which can be linked to socio-economic futures have a greater potential impact on habitat viability than climate change. The choices society makes will therefore be key to protection and conservation of biodiversity. The analyses also show that coastal grazing marsh is the most vulnerable habitat to sea-level rise, although there is a scope for substituting losses with fluvial grazing marsh. These results indicate that these methods provide a useful approach for assessing potential biodiversity changes at the regional scale, including the effect of different policies.     

Trade, transport, and sinks extend the carbon dioxide responsibility of countries: An editorial essay

Sea-level rise (SLR) due to climate change is a serious global threat: The scientific evidence is now overwhelming. Continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions and associated global warming could well promote SLR of 1 m in this century, and unexpectedly rapid breakup of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets might produce a 3–5 m SLR. In this paper, we assess the consequences of continued SLR for 84 coastal developing countries. Geographic Information System (GIS) software has been used to overlay the best available, spatially disaggregated global data on critical impact elements (land, population, agriculture, urban extent, wetlands, and GDP), with the inundation zones projected for 1–5 m SLR. Our results reveal that tens of millions of people in the developing world are likely to be displaced by SLR within this century; and accompanying economic and ecological damage will be severe for many. At the country level results are extremely skewed, with severe impacts limited to a relatively small number of countries.     

Perceptions and responses to climate policy risks among California farmers

This paper considers how farmers perceive and respond to climate change policy risks, and suggests that understanding these risk responses is as important as understanding responses to biophysical climate change impacts. Based on a survey of 162 farmers in California, we test three hypotheses regarding climate policy risk: (1) that perceived climate change risks will have a direct impact on farmer's responses to climate policy risks, (2) that previous climate change experiences will influence farmer's climate change perceptions and climate policy risk responses, and (3) that past experiences with environmental policies will more strongly affect a farmer's climate change beliefs, risks, and climate policy risk responses. Using a structural equation model we find support for all three hypotheses and furthermore show that farmers’ negative past policy experiences do not make them less likely to respond to climate policy risks through participation in a government incentive program. We discuss how future research and climate policies can be structured to garner greater agricultural participation. This work highlights that understanding climate policy risk responses and other social, economic and policy perspectives is a vital component of understanding climate change beliefs, risks and behaviors and should be more thoroughly considered in future work.     

Expert views on biodiversity conservation in an era of climate change

Adapting conservation policy to the impacts of climate change has emerged as a central and unresolved challenge. In this paper, we report on the results of 21 in-depth interviews with biodiversity and climate change adaptation experts on their views of the implications of climate change for conservation policy. We find a diversity of views across a set of topics that included: changing conservation objectives, conservation triage and its criteria, increased management interventions in protected areas, the role of uncertainty in decision-making, and evolving standards of conservation success. Notably, our findings reveal active consideration among experts with some more controversial elements of policy adaptation (including the role of disturbance in facilitating species transitions, and changing standards of conservation success), despite a comparative silence on these topics in the published literature. Implications of these findings are discussed with respect to: (a) identifying future research and integration needs and (b) providing insight into the process of policy adaptation in the context of biodiversity conservation.     

Mapping conservation priorities and connectivity pathways under climate change for tropical ecosystems

Climate change and land use conversion are global threats to biodiversity. Protected areas and biological corridors have been historically implemented as biodiversity conservation measures and suggested as tools within planning frameworks to respond to climate change. However, few applications to national protected areas systems considering climate change in tropical countries exist. Our goal is to define new priority areas for biodiversity conservation and biological corridors within an existing protected areas network. We aim at preserving samples of all biodiversity under climate change and facilitate species dispersal to reduce the vulnerability of biodiversity. The analysis was based on a three step strategy: i) protect representative samples of various levels of terrestrial biodiversity across protected area systems given future redistributions under climate change, ii) identify and protect areas with reduced climate velocities where populations could persist for relatively longer periods, and iii) ensure species dispersal between conservation areas through climatic connectivity pathways. The study was integrated into a participatory planning approach for biodiversity conservation in Costa Rica. Results showed that there should be an increase of 11 % and 5 % on new conservation areas and biological corridors respectively. Our approach integrates climate change into the design of a network of protected areas for tropical ecosystems and can be applied to other biodiversity rich areas to reduce the vulnerability of biodiversity to global warming.     

Conditions influencing the adoption of effective anti-deforestation policies in South America’s commodity frontiers

Reducing large-scale deforestation in commodity frontiers remains a key challenge for climate change mitigation and the conservation of biodiversity. Public and private anti-deforestation policies have been shown to effectively reduce forest loss, but the conditions under which such policies get adopted are rarely examined. Here we propose a set of conditions that we expect to be associated with the adoption of effective anti-deforestation policies in commodity frontiers. We then examine whether these conditions have influenced policy adoption in South America’s major soy-and-cattle frontiers: the Brazilian Amazon, the Cerrado, the Chaco, the Chiquitano, and Paraguay’s Atlantic Forest. By collating empirical data from diverse sources, including literature review, extensive expert interviews, and analysis of primary and secondary data, we show that the Cerrado, the Chaco, and the Chiquitano differ from the Brazilian Amazon in multiple ways that might have inhibited adoptions of effective anti-deforestation instruments. These conditions include: a higher importance of the agricultural sector within the respective countries, lower carbon stocks and species richness, higher prevalence of private land tenure, and higher baseline compliance with forest reserve regulations on private lands. We also observe that the adoption of the most effective private anti-deforestation instrument, commodity moratoria, may respond to similar conditions as those influencing the adoption of public instruments. Incentivizing public and private actors to adopt effective anti-deforestation policies in the Cerrado, Chaco, and the Chiquitano will likely be more challenging than it has been in the Brazilian Amazon.     

Adapting to climate change in The Netherlands: an inventory of climate adaptation options and ranking of alternatives

In many countries around the world impacts of climate change are assessed and adaptation options identified. We describe an approach for a qualitative and quantitative assessment of adaptation options to respond to climate change in the Netherlands. The study introduces an inventory and ranking of adaptation options based on stakeholder analysis and expert judgement, and presents some estimates of incremental costs and benefits. The qualitative assessment focuses on ranking and prioritisation of adaptation options. Options are selected and identified and discussed by stakeholders on the basis of a sectoral approach, and assessed with respect to their importance, urgency and other characteristics by experts. The preliminary quantitative assessment identifies incremental costs and benefits of adaptation options. Priority ranking based on a weighted sum of criteria reveals that in the Netherlands integrated nature and water management and risk based policies rank high, followed by policies aiming at ‘climate proof’ housing and infrastructure.     

Global evaluation of shark sanctuaries

Due to well-documented declines in many shark populations there is increasing pressure to implement new management and rebuilding strategies at the national and international scale. Since 2009, fifteen coastal countries in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans have opted to ban commercial shark fishing altogether, and have laws that prohibit the possession, trade or sale of sharks and shark products. These ‘shark sanctuaries’ collectively cover >3% of the world’s oceans, a similar coverage as all currently established marine protected areas combined. Despite their prominence, and an intense scientific debate about their usefulness, the condition of shark sanctuaries has not yet been empirically evaluated. Here, we report results from a global diver survey used to set baselines of shark populations, human use patterns, public awareness and threats in all 15 shark sanctuaries, and contrasted with observations from 23 non-sanctuary countries. Specific results varied by country, but there were some general trends: i) shark sanctuaries showed less pronounced shark population declines, fewer observations of sharks being sold on markets, and lower overall fishing threats compared to non-shark sanctuaries, ii) bycatch, ghost gear, marine debris and habitat destruction are significant threats that are often not addressed by sanctuary regulations and need to be resolved in other ways, and iii) participants in sanctuaries were more optimistic about the survival of shark populations in local waters, but also highlighted the need for further conservation efforts. These results suggest that shark sanctuaries, as seen through the lens of local experts, may be a helpful conservation tool but likely not sufficient in isolation. There is an urgent need for higher-resolution data on shark abundance, incidental catch, and markets to direct priority conservation needs and optimize the conservation benefits of existing and future shark sanctuaries.     

How robust are global conservation priorities to climate change?

International conservation organisations have identified priority areas for biodiversity conservation. These global-scale prioritisations affect the distribution of funds for conservation interventions. As each organisation has a different focus, each prioritisation scheme is determined by different decision criteria and the resultant priority areas vary considerably. However, little is known about how the priority areas will respond to the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we examined the robustness of eight global-scale prioritisations to climate change under various climate predictions from seven global circulation models. We developed a novel metric of the climate stability for 803 ecoregions based on a recently introduced method to estimate the overlap of climate envelopes. The relationships between the decision criteria and the robustness of the global prioritisation schemes were statistically examined. We found that decision criteria related to level of endemism and landscape fragmentation were strongly correlated with areas predicted to be robust to a changing climate. Hence, policies that prioritise intact areas due to the likely cost efficiency, and assumptions related to the potential to mitigate the impacts of climate change, require further examination. Our findings will help determine where additional management is required to enable biodiversity to adapt to the impacts of climate change.     

Estimating coastal recession due to sea level rise: beyond the Bruun rule

Accelerated sea level rise (SLR) in the twenty-first century will result in unprecedented coastal recession, threatening billions of dollars worth of coastal developments and infrastructure. Therefore, we cannot continue to depend on the highly uncertain coastal recession estimates obtained via the simple, deterministic method (Bruun rule) that has been widely used over the last 50?years. Furthermore, the emergence of risk management style coastal planning frameworks is now requiring probabilistic (rather than deterministic, single value) estimates of coastal recession. This paper describes the development and application of a process based model (PCR model) which provides probabilistic estimates of SLR driven coastal recession. The PCR model is proposed as a more appropriate and defensible method for determining coastal recession due to SLR for planning purposes in the twenty-first century and beyond.     

Historical change and future scenarios of sea level rise in Macau and adjacent waters

Against a background of climate change, Macau is very exposed to sea level rise(SLR) because of its low elevation,small size, and ongoing land reclamation. Therefore, we evaluate sea level changes in Macau, both historical and, especially,possible future scenarios, aiming to provide knowledge and a framework to help accommodate and protect against future SLR. Sea level in Macau is now rising at an accelerated rate: 1.35 mm yr-1over 1925–2010 and jumping to 4.2 mm yr-1over 1970–2010, which outpaces the rise in global mean sea level. In addition, vertical land movement in Macau contributes little to local sea level change. In the future, the rate of SLR in Macau will be about 20% higher than the global average, as a consequence of a greater local warming tendency and strengthened northward winds. Specifically, the sea level is projected to rise 8–12, 22–51 and 35–118 cm by 2020, 2060 and 2100, respectively, depending on the emissions scenario and climate sensitivity. Under the +8.5 W m-2Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP8.5) scenario the increase in sea level by2100 will reach 65–118 cm—double that under RCP2.6. Moreover, the SLR will accelerate under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, while remaining at a moderate and steady rate under RCP4.5 and RCP2.6. The key source of uncertainty stems from the emissions scenario and climate sensitivity, among which the discrepancies in SLR are small during the first half of the 21 st century but begin to diverge thereafter.     

Linking Adaptation and Mitigation in Climate Change Policy

How people privately and collectively adapt to climate risk can affect the costs and benefits of public mitigation policy (e.g., Kyoto); an obvious point often neglected in actual policy making. Herein we use the economic theory of endogenous risk to address this optimal mix of mitigation and adaptation strategies, and examine how increased variability in climate change threats affects this mix. We stress that a better understanding of the cross-links between mitigation and adaptation would potentially make it possible to provide more risk reduction with less wealth. Policies that are formulated without considering the cross-links can unintentionally undermine the effectiveness of public sector policies and programs because of unaddressed conflicts between the strategies. We also discuss the cross-disciplinary lessons to be learned from this literature, and identify important research questions to spur discussion in the next round of inquiry.