Projected shifts of wine regions in response to climate change

This research simulates the impact of climate change on the distribution of the most important European wine regions using a comprehensive suite of spatially informative layers, including bioclimatic indices and water deficit, as predictor variables. More specifically, a machine learning approach (Random Forest, RF) was first calibrated for the present period and applied to future climate conditions as simulated by HadCM3 General Circulation Model (GCM) to predict the possible spatial expansion and/or shift in potential grapevine cultivated area in 2020 and 2050 under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Projected changes in climate depicted by the GCM and SRES scenarios results in a progressive warming in all bioclimatic indices as well as increasing water deficit over the European domain, altering the climatic profile of each of the grapevine cultivated areas. The two main responses to these warmer and drier conditions are 1) progressive shifts of existing grapevine cultivated area to the north–northwest of their original ranges, and 2) expansion or contraction of the wine regions due to changes in within region suitability for grapevine cultivation. Wine regions with climatic conditions from the Mediterranean basin today (e.g., the Languedoc, Provence, Côtes Rhône Méridionales, etc.) were shown to potentially shift the most over time. Overall the results show the potential for a dramatic change in the landscape for winegrape production in Europe due to changes in climate.     

Sea water surface energy balance in the Arctic fjord (Hornsund,SW Spitsbergen) in May–November 2014

Maize is grown by millions of smallholder farmers in South Asia (SA) under diverse environments. The crop is grown in different seasons in a year with varying exposure to weather extremes, including high temperatures at critical growth stages which are expected to increase with climate change. This study assesses the impact of current and future heat stress on maize and the benefit of heat-tolerant varieties in SA. Annual mean maximum temperatures may increase by 1.4–1.8 °C in 2030 and 2.1–2.6 °C in 2050, with large monthly, seasonal, and spatial variations across SA. The extent of heat stressed areas in SA could increase by up to 12 % in 2030 and 21 % in 2050 relative to the baseline. The impact of heat stress and the benefit from heat-tolerant varieties vary with the level of temperature increase and planting season. At a regional scale, climate change would reduce rainfed maize yield by an average of 3.3–6.4 % in 2030 and 5.2–12.2 % in 2050 and irrigated yield by 3–8 % in 2030 and 5–14 % in 2050 if current varieties were grown under the future climate. Under projected climate, heat-tolerant varieties could minimize yield loss (relative to current maize varieties) by up to 36 and 93 % in 2030 and 33 and 86 % in 2050 under rainfed and irrigated conditions, respectively. Heat-tolerant maize varieties, therefore, have the potential to shield maize farmers from severe yield loss due to heat stress and help them adapt to climate change impacts.     

Spatial impact of projected changes in rainfall and temperature on wheat yields in Australia

Climate projections over the next two to four decades indicate that most of Australia’s wheat-belt is likely to become warmer and drier. Here we used a shire scale, dynamic stress-index model that accounts for the impacts of rainfall and temperature on wheat yield, and a range of climate change projections from global circulation models to spatially estimate yield changes assuming no adaptation and no CO₂ fertilisation effects. We modelled five scenarios, a baseline climate (climatology, 1901–2007), and two emission scenarios (“low” and “high” CO₂) for two time horizons, namely 2020 and 2050. The potential benefits from CO₂ fertilisation were analysed separately using a point level functional simulation model. Irrespective of the emissions scenario, the 2020 projection showed negligible changes in the modelled yield relative to baseline climate, both using the shire or functional point scale models. For the 2050-high emissions scenario, changes in modelled yield relative to the baseline ranged from ?5 % to +6 % across most of Western Australia, parts of Victoria and southern New South Wales, and from ?5 to ?30 % in northern NSW, Queensland and the drier environments of Victoria, South Australia and in-land Western Australia. Taking into account CO₂ fertilisation effects across a North–south transect through eastern Australia cancelled most of the yield reductions associated with increased temperatures and reduced rainfall by 2020, and attenuated the expected yield reductions by 2050.     

The effect of climate change on hydrological regimes in Europe: a continental perspective

This paper outlines the effects of climate change by the 2050s on hydrological regimes at the continental scale in Europe, at a spatial resolution of 0.5×0.5°. Hydrological regimes are simulated using a macro-scale hydrological model, operating at a daily time step, and four climate change scenarios are used. There are differences between the four scenarios, but each indicates a general reduction in annual runoff in southern Europe (south of around 50°N), and an increase in the north. In maritime areas there is little difference in the timing of flows, but the range through the year tends to increase with lower flows during summer. The most significant changes in flow regime, however, occur where snowfall becomes less important due to higher temperatures, and therefore both winter runoff increases and spring flow decreases: these changes occur across a large part of eastern Europe. In western maritime Europe low flows reduce, but further east minimum flows will increase as flows during the present low flow season – winter – rise. “Drought” was indexed as the maximum total deficit volume below the flow exceeded 95% of the time: this was found to increase in intensity across most of western Europe, but decrease in the east and north. The study attempted to quantify several sources of uncertainty, and showed that the effects of model uncertainty on the estimated change in runoff were generally small compared to the differences between scenarios and the assumed change in global temperature by 2050.     

Climate change and Quebec's ski industry

This study presents the results of a second-generation climate change assessment for three key ski regions of Quebéc incorporating snowmaking as a climate adaptation strategy. Potential economic ramifications for ski operators are assessed separately for the main revenue-generating period and shoulder seasons. The paper concludes that climate change does not pose a threat to the Quebéc ski industry under 2020s scenarios and that, while adequate snow base can be maintained with additional snowmaking under even the warmest scenario for the 2050s, the combined economic impact of lost revenue opportunities from a shortened ski season and increased snowmaking costs will likely prove prohibitive for some ski operators.     

Impact of climate change on low-flows in the river Meuse

In this study observed precipitation, temperature, and discharge records from the Meuse basin for the period 1911–2003 are analysed. The primary aim is to establish which meteorological conditions generate (critical) low-flows of the Meuse. This is achieved by examining the relationships between observed seasonal precipitation and temperature anomalies, and low-flow indices. Secondly, the possible impact of climate change on the (joint) occurrence of these low-flow generating meteorological conditions is addressed. This is based on the outcomes of recently reported RCM climate simulations for Europe given a scenario with increased atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations. The observed record (1911–2003) hints at the importance of multi-seasonal droughts in the generation of critical low-flows of the river Meuse. The RCM simulations point to a future with wetter winters and drier summers in Northwest Europe. No increase in the likelihood of multi-seasonal droughts is simulated. However, the RCM scenario runs produce multi-seasonal precipitation and temperature anomalies that are out of the range of the observed record for the period 1911–2003. The impact of climate change on low-flows has also been simulated with a hydrological model. This simulation indicates that climate change will lead to a decrease in the average discharge of the Meuse during the low-flow season. However, the model has difficulties to simulate critical low-flow conditions of the Meuse.     

Consequences of climate change for the soil climate in Central Europe and the central plains of the United States

This study aims to evaluate soil climate quantitatively under present and projected climatic conditions across Central Europe (12.1°–18.9° E and 46.8°–51.1° N) and the U.S. Central Plains (90°–104° W and 37°–49° N), with a special focus on soil temperature, hydric regime, drought risk and potential productivity (assessed as a period suitable for crop growth). The analysis was completed for the baselines (1961–1990 for Europe and 1985–2005 for the U.S.) and time horizons of 2025, 2050 and 2100 based on the outputs of three global circulation models using two levels of climate sensitivity. The results indicate that the soil climate (soil temperature and hydric soil regimes) will change dramatically in both regions, with significant consequences for soil genesis. However, the predicted changes of the pathways are very uncertain because of the range of future climate systems predicted by climate models. Nevertheless, our findings suggest that the risk of unfavourable dry years will increase, resulting in greater risk of soil erosion and lower productivity. The projected increase in the variability of dry and wet events combined with the uncertainty (particularly in the U.S.) poses a challenge for selecting the most appropriate adaptation strategies and for setting adequate policies. The results also suggest that the soil resources are likely be under increased pressure from changes in climate.     

Climate scenarios for 2010 and 2050 AD Australia and New Zealand

The various bases for making Australian and New Zealand scenarios of climate change at 2010 and 2050 AD are discussed. Atmospheric greenhouse gas increases will cause historically unprecedented warming by 2050 AD, but the likely regional rainfall changes are uncertain. By 2010 AD greenhouse gas climate change should be detectable with a warming relative to the present of 0.5–1.5 °C. At 2050 AD Australian and New Zealand temperatures will be 2–3 °C higher, the frost free season will be longer and the snowline higher. Rainfall changes will be very much determined by regional airflow and storm tracks, and the state of the Southern Oscillation. In order to obtain unproved and more detailed estimates of climate at 2010 and 2050 AD existing climate models need to be improved. For Australia and New Zealand models need to focus on the south west Pacific-Australia region.     

Probabilistic forecasting of seasonal drought behaviors in the Huai River basin,China

Results from high resolution 7-km WRF regional climate model (RCM) simulations are used to analyse changes in the occurrence frequencies of heat waves, of precipitation extremes and of the duration of the winter time freezing period for highly populated urban areas in Central Europe. The projected climate change impact is assessed for 11 urban areas based on climate indices for a future period (2021–2050) compared to a reference period (1971–2000) using the IPCC AR4 A1B Scenario as boundary conditions. These climate indices are calculated from daily maximum, minimum and mean temperatures as well as precipitation amounts. By this, the vulnerability of these areas to future climate conditions is to be investigated. The number of heat waves, as well as the number of single hot days, tropical nights and heavy precipitation events is projected to increase in the near future. In addition, the number of frost days is significantly decreased. Probability density functions of monthly mean summer time temperatures show an increase of the 95th percentile of about 1–3 °C for the future compared with the reference period. The projected increase of cooling and decrease of heating degree days indicate the possible impact on urban energy consumption under future climate conditions.     

Changing growing season observed in Canada

It is theoretically interesting for climate change detection and practically important for agricultural producers to know whether climate change has influenced agroclimatic conditions and, if so, what the potential impacts are. We present analyses on statistical differences in means and variances of agroclimatic indices between three 30-year periods in the 20th century (i.e., 1911–1940, 1941–1970 and 1971–2000). We found many occurrences of statistically significant changes in means between pairs of the three 30-year periods. The findings consistently support agroclimatic trends identified from trend analysis as an earlier growing season start and an earlier end to spring frost (SF), together with an extended growing season, more frost-free days (FFD) and more available heat units were often found in the later 30-year periods as compared to the earlier ones. In addition, this study provides more detailed quantitative information than the trend signals for the practical interests of agricultural applications. Significant changes were detected for SF and FFD at a much larger percentage of stations between the latter two 30-year periods (1941–1970 vs. 1971–2000) as compared to the earlier two periods (1911–1940 vs. 1941–1970). In contrast, changes in variances of the selected agroclimatic indices were less evident than changes in their means, based on the percentage of stations showing significant differences. We also present new climate averages of the selected agroclimatic indices that can be useful for agricultural planning and management.     

Modelling potential impacts of climate change on water and nitrate export from a mid-sized, semiarid watershed in the US Southwest

The impacts of climate change on water and nitrogen cycles in arid central Arizona (USA) were investigated by integrating the Second Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) and a widely used, physical process-based model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). With statistically downscaled daily climate data from the CGCM2 as model input, SWAT predicted increased potential evapotranspiration and decreased surface runoff, lateral flow, soil water, and groundwater recharge, which suggests serious consequences for the water cycle in this desert catchment in the future. Specifically, stream discharge is projected to decrease by 31 % in the 2020s, 47 % in the 2050s, and 56 % in the 2080s compared to the mean discharge for the base period (0.73 m³/s). A flow-duration analysis reveals that the projected reduction of stream discharge in the future is attributable to significant decreases in mid-range and low-flow conditions; however, flood peaks would show a slight increase in the future. The drier and hotter future also will decrease the rate of nitrogen mineralization in the catchment and ultimately, nitrate export from the stream. Since mean mineralization rate would decrease by 15 % in the 2020s, 28 % in the 2050s, and 35 % in the 2080s compared to the based period (9.3 g N ha^?1 d^?1), the combined impact of reduced catchment mineralization and reduced streamflow would predict declining nitrate export: from today’s mean value of 30 kg N/d, to 20, 15 and 12 kg N/d by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively.     

Shifts in African crop climates by 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation

Increased understanding of the substantial threat climate change poses to agriculture has not been met with a similarly improved understanding of how best to respond. Here we examine likely shifts in crop climates in Sub-Saharan Africa under climate change to 2050, and explore the implications for agricultural adaptation, with particular focus on identifying priorities in crop breeding and the conservation of crop genetic resources. We find that for three of Africa's primary cereal crops – maize, millet, and sorghum – expected changes in growing season temperature are considerable and dwarf changes projected for precipitation, with the warmest recent temperatures on average cooler than almost 9 out of 10 expected observations by 2050. For the “novel” crop climates currently unrepresented in each country but likely extant there in 2050, we identify current analogs across the continent. The majority of African countries will have novel climates over at least half of their current crop area by 2050. Of these countries, 75% will have novel climates with analogs in the current climate of at least five other countries, suggesting that international movement of germplasm will be necessary for adaptation. A more troubling set of countries – largely the hotter Sahelian countries – will have climates with few analogs for any crop. Finally, we identify countries, such as Sudan, Cameroon, and Nigeria, whose current crop areas are analogs to many future climates but that are poorly represented in major genebanks – promising locations in which to focus future genetic resource conservation efforts.     

An assessment of regional vulnerability of rice to climate change in India

A simulation analysis was carried out using the InfoCrop-rice model to quantify impacts and adaptation gains, as well as to identify vulnerable regions for irrigated and rain fed rice cultivation in future climates in India. Climates in A1b, A2, B1 and B2 emission scenarios as per a global climate model (MIROC3.2.HI) and a regional climate model (PRECIS) were considered for the study. On an aggregated scale, the mean of all emission scenarios indicate that climate change is likely to reduce irrigated rice yields by ~4 % in 2020 (2010–2039), ~7 % in 2050 (2040–2069), and by ~10 % in 2080 (2070–2099) climate scenarios. On the other hand, rainfed rice yields in India are likely to be reduced by ~6 % in the 2020 scenario, but in the 2050 and 2080 scenarios they are projected to decrease only marginally (<2.5 %). However, spatial variations exist for the magnitude of the impact, with some regions likely to be affected more than others. Adaptation strategies comprising agronomical management can offset negative impacts in the near future—particularly in rainfed conditions—but in the longer run, developing suitable varieties coupled with improved and efficient crop husbandry will become essential. For irrigated rice crop, genotypic and agronomic improvements will become crucial; while for rainfed conditions, improved management and additional fertilizers will be needed. Basically climate change is likely to exhibit three types of impacts on rice crop: i) regions that are adversely affected by climate change can gain in net productivity with adaptation; ii) regions that are adversely affected will still remain vulnerable despite adaptation gains; and iii) rainfed regions (with currently low rainfall) that are likely to gain due to increase in rainfall can further benefit by adaptation. Regions falling in the vulnerable category even after suggested adaptation to climate change will require more intensive, specific and innovative adaptation options. The present analysis indicates the possibility of substantial improvement in yields with efficient utilization of inputs and adoption of improved varieties.     

Potential impact of climate change on ecosystems of the Barents Sea Region

The EU project BALANCE (Global Change Vulnerabilities in the Barents region: Linking Arctic Natural Resources, Climate Change and Economies) aims to assess vulnerability to climate change in the Barents Sea Region. As a prerequisite the potential impact of climate change on selected ecosystems of the study area has to be quantified, which is the subject of the present paper. A set of ecosystem models was run to generate baseline and future scenarios for 1990, 2020, 2050 and 2080. The models are based on data from the Regional Climate Model (REMO), driven by a GCM which in turn is forced by the IPCC-B2 scenario. The climate change is documented by means of the Köppen climate classification. Since the multitude of models requires the effect of climate change on individual terrestrial and marine systems to be integrated, the paper concentrates on a standardised visualisation of potential impacts by use of a Geographical Information System for the timeslices 2050 and 2080. The resulting maps show that both terrestrial and marine ecosystems of the Barents region will undergo significant changes until both 2050 and 2080.     

High-resolution Projection Dataset of Agroclimatic Indicators over Central Asia

To understand the potential impacts of projected climate change on the vulnerable agriculture in Central Asia (CA), six agroclimatic indicators are calculated based on the 9-km-resolution dynamical downscaled results of three different global climate models from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and their changes in the near-term future (2031–50) are assessed relative to the reference period (1986–2005). The quantile mapping (QM) method is applied to correct the model data before calculating the indicators. Results show the QM method largely reduces the biases in all the indicators. Growing season length (GSL, day), summer days (SU, day), warm spell duration index (WSDI, day), and tropical nights (TR, day) are projected to significantly increase over CA, and frost days (FD, day) are projected to decrease. However, changes in biologically effective degree days (BEDD, °C) are spatially heterogeneous. The high-resolution projection dataset of agroclimatic indicators over CA can serve as a scientific basis for assessing the future risks to local agriculture from climate change and will be beneficial in planning adaption and mitigation actions for food security in this region.     

Impacts of thermohaline circulation shutdown in the twenty-first century

We discuss climate impacts of a hypothetical shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (‘THC’) in the 2050s, using the climate model HadCM3. Previous studies have generally focussed on the effects on pre-industrial climate. Here we take into account increased greenhouse gas concentrations according to an IS92a emissions scenario. THC shutdown causes cooling of the Northern Hemisphere of -1.7?C, locally stronger. Over western Europe cooling is strong enough for a return to pre-industrial conditions and a significant increase in the occurrence of frost and snow cover. Global warming restricts the increase in sea ice cover after THC shutdown. This lessens the amount of cooling over NW Europe, but increases it over North America, compared to pre-industrial shutdown. This reflects a non-linearity in the local temperature response to THC shutdown. Precipitation change after THC shutdown is generally opposite to that caused by global warming, except in western and southern Europe, where summer drying is enhanced, and in Central America and southeast Asia, where precipitation is also further reduced. Local rise in sea level after THC shutdown can be large along Atlantic coasts (pm; 25,cm), which would add to the rise caused by global warming. Potentially rapid THC shutdown adds to the range of uncertainty of projected future climate change.     

Future Climate Impact on the Productivity of Sugar Beet (Beta vulgaris L.) in Europe

The impact of future climate change on sugar beet yields is assessed over western Europe using future (2021–2050) climate scenario data from a General Circulation Model (GCM) and the Broom's Barn simulation model of rain-fed crop growth and yield. GCM output for the 1961–1990 period is first compared with observed climate data and shown to be reliable for regions west of 24° E. Comparisons east of this meridian were less reliable with this GCM (HadCM2) and so were omitted from simulations of crop yield. Climate change is expected to bring yield increases of around 1 t/ha of sugar in northern Europe with decreases of a similar magnitude in northern France, Belgium and west/central Poland, for the period 2021–2050. Averaged for the study area (weighted by current regional production), yields show no overall change due to changed climate. However, this figure masks significant increases in yield potential (due to accelerated growth in warmer springs) and in losses due to drought stress. Drought losses are predicted to approximately double in areas with an existing problem and to become a serious new problem in NE France and Belgium. Overall west and central Europe simulated average drought losses rise from 7% (1961–1990) to 18% (2021–2050). The annual variability of yield (as measured by the coefficient of variation) will increase by half, from 10% to 15% compared to 1961–1990, again with potentially serious consequences for the sugar industry. The importance of crop breeding for drought tolerance is further emphasised. These changes are independent of the 9% yield increase which we estimate, on the basis of work by Demmers-Derks et al. (1998), is the likely direct effect of the increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration by 2021–2050.     

Food security in the face of climate change: Adaptive capacity of small-scale social-ecological systems to environmental variability

Improving the adaptive capacity of small-scale irrigation systems to the impacts of climate change is crucial for food security in Asia. This study analyzes the capacity of small-scale irrigation systems dependent on the Asian monsoon to adapt to variability in river discharge caused by climate change. Our study is motivated by the Pumpa irrigation system, a small-scale irrigation system located in Nepal that is a model for this type of system. We developed an agent-based model in which we simulated the decisions farmers make about the irrigation strategy to use according to available water flow. Given the uncertainty associated with how climate change may affect the Asian monsoon, we simulated the performance of the system under different projections of climate change in the region (increase and decrease in rainfall, reduction and expansion of the monsoon season, and changes in the timing of the onset of the monsoon). Accordingly to our simulations, farmers might need to adapt to rainfall intensification and a late onset in the monsoon season. The demands for collective action among farmers (e.g. infrastructure repair, meetings, decisions, etc.) might increase considerably due to climate change. Although our model suggests that investment in new infrastructure might increase the performance of the system under some climate change scenarios, the high inequality among farmers when water availability is reduced might hinder the efficiency of these measures due to a reduction of farmers’ willingness to cooperate. Our modeling exercise helps to hypothesize about the most sensitive climate change scenarios for smallscale irrigation farming in Nepal and helps to frame a discussion of some possible solutions and fundamental trade-offs in the process of adaptation to improve for food and water security under climate change.     

对气候变化背景下中欧易北河流域可用水的评估

The Elbe region is representative of humid to semi-humid landscapes in Central Europe,where water availability during the summer season is the limiting factor for plant growth and crop yields.especially in the loess areas with high crop productivity having annual precipitation lower than 500 mm.This paper summarizes the results of the first phase of the GLOWA(GLObal WAter)-Elbe project and tries to assess the reliability of water supply in the German part of the Elbe river basin for the next 50 years,a time scale relevant for the implementation of water and land use management plans.One focus of the study was developing scenarios which are consistent with climate and land use changes considering possible uncertainties.The concluding result of the study is that nature and communities in parts of Central Europe will have to deal with considerably lower water resources under scenario conditions.     

Analysis and mapping of present and future drought conditions over Greek areas with different climate conditions

Estimation of drought in a certain temporal and spatial scale is crucial in climate change studies. The current study targets on three agricultural areas widespread in Greece, Ardas River Basin in Northeastern Greece, Sperchios River Basin in Central Greece, and Geropotamos River Basin in Crete Island in South Greece that are characterized by diverse climates as they are located in various regions. The objective is to assess the spatiotemporal variation of drought conditions prevailing in these areas. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to identify and assess the present and future drought conditions. Future simulated data were derived from a number of Regional Climatic Models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES European Project. The analysis was performed for the future periods of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100, implementing A1B and B1 scenarios. The spatial analysis of the drought conditions was performed using a combined downscaling technique and the Ordinary Kriging. The Mann-Kendall test was implemented for trend investigation. During both periods and scenarios, drought conditions will tend to be more severe in the upcoming years. The decrease of the SPI values in the Sperchios River Basin is expected to be the strongest, as it is the only study area that will show a negative balance (in SPI values), regarding the drought conditions. For the Ardas and the Geropotamos River Basins, a great increase of the drought conditions will occur during the 2021–2050 period, while for 2071–2100 period, the decrease will continue but it will be tempered. Nevertheless, the situation in all study areas according to the SPI classification is characterized as “Near-normal”, in terms of drought conditions.