Stream Temperature Trends in Turkey

Stream temperature is an important property of water and affects most other water quality constituents. It is also a property which is very much influenced by exogenous factors like air temperature and stream flow. This study investigates long‐term trends in stream temperatures measured at various stream monitoring stations in Turkey to better understand links with climate change. It was found by statistical trend analysis that more streams have experienced decreasing trends than increasing ones. Moreover, stream temperatures show a rising tendency in most stations over Turkey. Flow‐adjusted temperatures were computed to eliminate flow dependency and these show more positive than negative trends. Management plans of streams and watersheds need to take this into account and incorporate the implications into plans.     

Temperature and heat wave trends in northwest Mexico

Increase in temperature extremes is one of the main expected impacts of climate change, as well as one of the first signs of its occurrence. Nevertheless, results emerging from General Circulation Models, while sufficient for large scales, are not enough for forecasting local trends and, hence, the IPCC has called for local studies based on on-site data. Indeed, it is expected that climate extremes will be detected much earlier than changes in climate averages. Heat waves are among the most important and least studied climate extremes, however its occurrence has been only barely studied and even its very definition remains controversial. This paper discusses the observed changes in temperature trends and heat waves in Northwestern Mexico, one of the most vulnerable regions of the country. The climate records in two locations of the region are analyzed, including one of the cities with extreme climate in Mexico, Mexicali City in the state of Baja California and the Yaqui River basin at Sonora State using three different methodologies. Results showed clear trends on temperature increase and occurrence of heat waves in both of the study zones using the three methodologies proposed. As result, some policy making suggestion are included in order to increase the adaptability of the studied regions to climate change, particularly related with heat wave occurrence.     

1975-2007年中亚干旱区内陆湖泊面积变化遥感分析

中亚干旱区内陆湖泊的湖面变化反映了气候波动和人类活动对流域水文过程的影响.本文以中亚干旱区平原区尾闾湖泊、吞吐湖泊和高山湖泊三类典型内陆湖泊为研究对象,利用1975-2007年Landsat遥感影像,基于归一化水体指数提取湖泊水域边界信息,分析近30年来内陆湖泊湖面变化特征.结果表明,近30年来,研究区内有超过一半的内...     

Climate Change in the Urals,Russia, Inferred from Borehole Temperature Data

Borehole temperatures in the central and south Urals were analysed for the past ground surface temperature (GST) signal. 31 highquality temperature logs were selected for this purpose and inverted with algorithms based on the generalised least squares theory. The signal to noise ratio was improved by averaging the results of individual borehole inversions. No distinct regional trends were found in the studied region except for some indications of more pronounced warming in the south. The mean GST history (GSTH) was characterised by cooling down to –0.6 °C in the 18th century and subsequent warming to 0.5 °C above the longterm mean at the beginning of this century, and to 1 – 1.5 °C by 1980. The stability of the mean GSTH was tested in dependence on the number of holes used for the averaging. It showed that any subset of 15 holes yielded a GSTH similar to that obtained from the whole set. A surface air temperature (SAT) time series comprising the period 1832 – 1989 was combined from 17 meteorological records. Its least squares warming rate of 1.1 °C per 100 years is somewhat higher than that of the GST (0.7 – 0.8°C/100 years) in the same period.     

Trends in the timing and magnitude of floods in Canada

This study investigates trends in the timing and magnitude of seasonal maximum flood events across Canada. A new methodology for analyzing trends in the timing of flood events is developed that takes into account the directional character and multi-modality of flood occurrences. The methodology transforms the directional series of flood occurrences into new series by defining a new location of the origin. A test of flood seasonality (multi-modality) is then applied to identify dominant flood seasons. Floods from the dominant seasons are analyzed separately by a seasonal trend analysis. The Mann–Kendall test in conjunction with the method of pre-whitening is used in the trend analysis. Over 160 streamflow records from one common observation period are analyzed in watersheds with relatively pristine and stable land-use conditions. The results show weak signals of climate variability and/or change present in the timing of floods in Canada during the last three decades. Most of the significant trends in the timing of spring snowmelt floods are negative trends (earlier flood occurrence) found in the southern part of Canada. There are no significant trends identified in the timing of fall rainfall floods. However, the significance of the fall, rainfall-dominated flood season has been increasing in several analyzed watersheds. This may indicate increasing intensity of rainfall events during the recent years. Trends in the magnitude of floods are more pronounced than the trends in the timing of floods. Almost one fifth of all the analyzed stations show significant trends in the magnitude of snowmelt floods. Most of the significant trends are negative trends, suggesting decreasing magnitudes of snowmelt floods in Canada over the last three decades. Significant negative trends are found particularly in southern Ontario, northern Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia. There are no significant trends in the magnitude of rainfall floods found in the analyzed streamflow records. The results support the outcomes of previous streamflow trend studies conducted in Canada.     

北京良乡、赵各庄井水位、水温同震响应对比研究

收集了2001年以来北京地区良乡、赵各庄井水位、水温的同震响应资料,从其同震响应特征中发现,虽然两观测井水位的响应灵敏度相差不大,但良乡井水温的灵敏度要好于赵各庄井。在对比两观测井水温日变化幅度以及气泡脱逸模型的基础上,结合两观测井含水层的水文地质特征,对于两观测井水温响应灵敏度的差异给出了较为合理的解释。     

Trends and drivers of marine debris on the Atlantic coast of the United States 1997-2007

For the first time, we documented regional differences in amounts and long-term trends of marine debris along the US Atlantic coast. The Southeast Atlantic had low land-based and general-source debris loads as well as no increases despite a 19% increase in coastal population. The Northeast (8% population increase) also had low land-based and general-source debris loads and no increases. The Mid-Atlantic (10% population increase) fared the worst, with heavy land-based and general-source debris loads that increased over time. Ocean-based debris did not change in the Northeast where the fishery is relatively stable; it declined over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast and was correlated with declining regional fisheries. Drivers, including human population, land use status, fishing activity, and oceanic current systems, had complex relationships with debris loads at local and regional scales. Management challenges remain undeniably large but solid information from long-term programs is one key to addressing this pressing pollution issue.     

Stormy geomorphology: an introduction to the Special Issue

The degree to which the climate change signal can be seen in the increasing frequency and/or magnitude of extreme events forms a key part of the global environmental change agenda. Geomorphology engages with this debate through extending the instrumental record with palaeogeomorphological research; studying resilience and recovery of geomorphic systems under extreme disturbance; documenting the mediation by catchment organisation of transport processes during extreme events; applying new monitoring methods to better understand process‐response systems; and illustrating how process, experimental and modelling insights can be used to define the buffering of geomorphic systems and human assets from the effects of extremes, providing practical outcomes for practitioners. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Microseism Variations in Response to Antarctic Seasonal Changes in Sea Ice Extent

The temporal and spatial distributions of Antarctic sea ice play important roles in both the generation mechanisms and the signal characteristics of microseisms. This link paves the way for seismological investigations of Antarctic sea ice. Here we present an overview of the current state of seismological research about microseisms on Antarctic sea ice. We first briefly review satellite remote-sensing observations of Antarctic sea ice over the past 50 years. We then systematically expound upon the generation mechanisms and source distribution of microseisms in relation to seismic noise investigations of sea ice, and the characteristics of Antarctic microseisms and relationship with sea ice variations are further analyzed. We also analyze the continuous data recorded at seismic station BEAR in West Antarctica from 2011 to 2018 and compare the microseism observations with the corresponding satellite remote-sensing observations of Antarctic sea ice. Our results show that:(1) the microseisms from the coastal regions of West Antarctica exhibit clear seasonal variations, SFM with maximum intensities every April-May and minimum intensities around every October-November; while DFM intensities peak every February-March, and reach the minimum around every October. Comparatively, the strong seasonal periodicity of Antarctic sea ice in better agreement with the observed DFM; and (2) microseism decay is not synchronous with sea ice expansion since the microseism intensity is also linked to the source location, source intensity (e.g., ocean storms, ocean wave field), and other factors. Finally, we discuss the effect of Southern Annular Mode on Antarctic sea ice and microseisms, as well as the current limitations and potential of employing seismological investigations to elucidate Antarctic sea ice variations and climate change.     

How to construct future IDF curves,under changing climate,for sites with scarce rainfall records?

Optimal designs of stormwater systems rely very much on the rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves. As climate has shown significant changes in rainfall characteristics in many regions, the adequacy of the existing IDF curves is called for particularly when the rainfall are much more intense. For data sparse sites/regions, developing IDF curves for the future climate is even challenging. The current practice for such regions is, for example, to ‘borrow’ or ‘interpolate’ data from regions of climatologically similar characteristics. A novel (3‐step) Downscaling‐Comparison‐Derivation (DCD) approach was presented in the earlier study to derive IDF curves for present climate using the extracted Dynamically Downscaled data an ungauged site, Darmaga Station in Java Island, Indonesia and the approach works extremely well. In this study, a well validated (3‐step) DCD approach was applied to develop present‐day IDF curves at stations with short or no rainfall record. This paper presents a new approach in which data are extracted from a high spatial resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM; 30 × 30 km over the study domain) driven by Reanalysis data. A site in Java, Indonesia, is selected to demonstrate the application of this approach. Extremes from projected rainfall (6‐hourly results; ERA40 Reanalysis) are first used to derive IDF curves for three sites (meteorological stations) where IDF curves exist; biases observed resulting from these sites are captured and serve as very useful information in the derivation of present‐day IDF curves for sites with short or no rainfall record. The final product of the present‐day climate‐derived IDF curves fall within a specific range, +38% to +45%. This range allows designers to decide on a value within the lower and upper bounds, normally subjected to engineering, economic, social and environmental concerns. Deriving future IDF curves for Stations with existing IDF curves and ungauged sites with simulation data from RCM driven by global climate model (GCM ECHAM5) (6‐hourly results; A2 emission scenario) have also been presented. The proposed approach can be extended to other emission scenarios so that a bandwidth of uncertainties can be assessed to create appropriate and effective adaptation strategies/measures to address climate change and its impacts. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seasonal variability in mesopause region temperatures over Fort Collins, CO (41°N, 105°W) based on lidar observations, 1990 through 2007

Nearly 900 nocturnal temperature profiles (85–105 km) from the Colorado State University Na lidar at Fort Collins, CO (40.59N, 105.14W) from 1990 to 2007. After the removal of an episodic warming attributable to Mt. Pinatubo eruption, the time series is analyzed as the sum of the climatological mean, annual and semiannual oscillation, solar cycle effect and trends along with possible annual/semiannual modulation of the latter two. The direct seasonal variation is consistent with the concept of the two-level mesopause. The trends in summer and winter are comparable 90–96 km at −0.15±0.1 K/year. The summer trend turns positive above 96 km. The winter trend is negative with minimum of −0.3 K/year at 100 km but positive at 104 km. The negative trend values are a factor of five smaller than an earlier analysis of the early part of this data due to removal of an episodic event.     

Temporal trends of hydro-climatic variables and their relevance in water resource management

Identification of temporal changes in hydrological regimes of river basins is an important topic in contemporary hydrology because of the potential impacts of climate change on river flow regimes.For this purpose,long-term historical records of rainfall(P),runoff(Q)and other climatic factors were used to investigate hydrological variability and trends in the Tajan River Basin over the period 1969e1998.Actual evaporation(E),rainfall variability index(d),evaporation ratio(CE)and runoff ratio(CQ)were estimated from the available hydroclimatological records.Mann-Kendall trend analysis and nonparametric Sen's slope estimates were performed on the respective time series variables to detect monotonic trend direction and magnitude of change over time.Rainfall variability index showed that 1973 was the wettest year(δ=+2.039)while 1985 was the driest(δ=-1.584).Also,decades 69e78 and 89e98 were recognized as the wettest and driest decades respectively.The gradient of variation of climatological parameters showed that during the study period,all three parameters of rainfall,evaporation and runoff have decreased and the variations of rainfall and evaporation were significant at the 95%level.Investigation of hydrological changes due of dam construction(1999)showed that the amount and annual distribution of discharge were completely different pre and post-dam construction.Discharge decreased in high water months and increased in low water months to meet water supply demands,especially for agriculture.The relationship between temperature and rainfall trends is compared for three stations in Mazandaran Province(Gorgan,Babolsar and Ramsar)from 1956 to 2003 and nine other stations with different statistical periods of 19e36 years,relating trends to northern hemisphere and global trends.Decreases in temperature were accompanied by decreases in rainfall,and vice versa.These trends were not observed in northern hemisphere and world scales,where temperature increases are accompanied by decreases in rainfall.These variations of hydroclimatological parameters show undesirable water resources situations during the statistical periods if the trend continues severe water resource crises.     

Changes in the thermal structure of moderate to large sized lakes in response to changes in air temperature

Interannual variability in the thermal structure of lakes is driven by interannual differences in meteorological conditions. Dynamic or mechanistic models and empirical or statistical methods have been used to integrate the physical processes in lakes enabling the response of the thermal structure to changes in air temperature to be determined. Water temperature records for Lake Mendota, WI., are possibly the most extensive for any dimictic lake in the world and allowed both approaches to be used. Results from both techniques suggest the mixed layer temperature increases with increasing air temperature. Results from the empirical approach suggested epilimnion temperatures increase 0.5 to 1.0°C per 1.0°C increase in air temperature compared to 0.4 to 0.85°C estimated from a dynamical model (DYRESM). Increased air temperatures are related to significant warming in deep water temperatures in the absence of stratification; however, mid summer hypolimnion temperatures are expected to change very little or increase only slightly in response to climatic warming. Both approaches suggest increases in air temperatures increase the length of summer stratification; results from the dynamic model suggest an increase of approximately 5 days per 1°C increase in air temperature. Longer stratification is reflected in shallower late summer thermocline depths. With these quantitative relationships and forecast increases in air temperature for the 2 × CO₂ climatic scenario (Greenhouse Effect) from three General Circulation Models, projections are made describing the changes in the future mean thermal structure of moderate to large sized lakes.     

Sensitivity of the river Rhine discharge to environmental change,a first tentative assessment

Changes in climatic conditions may have great impact on the distribution of available water in space and time. However the results of models that describe future climate conditions are still insufficient to be used in regional hydrological simulation studies. This article describes a first tentative estimation of the sensitivity of discharge of the river Rhine to two environmental changes. Firstly, to a change in snow covered area due to a rise of 4°C in winter temperature in the upland part (Alps) of the drainage area and, secondly, to a large land use change in the lowland area (Federal Republic of Germany/France). ‘Worst case’ scenarios for discharge of the river Rhine under warmer conditions give a reduction of 10 percent for the summer discharge at Rees (Dutch/German border). The results of the estimations indicate that the reduction of the summer discharge in a warmer world could be larger.     

Trends in rainfall and temperature in the Peruvian Amazon–Andes basin over the last 40 years (1965–2007)

The hydroclimatology of the Peruvian Amazon–Andes basin (PAB) which surface corresponding to 7% of the Amazon basin is still poorly documented. We propose here an extended and original analysis of the temporal evolution of monthly rainfall, mean temperature (T_mean), maximum temperature (T_max) and minimum temperature (T_min) time series over two PABs (Huallaga and Ucayali) over the last 40 years. This analysis is based on a new and more complete database that includes 77 weather stations over the 1965–2007 period, and we focus our attention on both annual and seasonal meteorological time series. A positive significant trend in mean temperature of 0.09 °C per decade is detected over the region with similar values in the Andes and rainforest when considering average data. However, a high percentage of stations with significant T_mean positive trends are located over the Andes region. Finally, changes in the mean values occurred earlier in T_max (during the 1970s) than in T_min (during the 1980s). In the PAB, there is neither trend nor mean change in rainfall during the 1965–2007 period. However, annual, summer and autumn rainfall in the southern Andes presents an important interannual variability that is associated with the sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic Ocean while there are limited relationships between rainfall and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. On the contrary, the interannual temperature variability is mainly related to ENSO events. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1901-2016年印太海域海表温度的偏差订正及数据集研制

海表温度系统性观测偏差的订正是开展长历史序列网格化海表温度气候数据产品研制的关键.本文在引入美国SR02海表温度偏差订正方法的基础上,结合国家气象信息中心自主研发的全球海表观测定时值数据集,进行了相关参数的优化改进,从而研制了1901—2016年印度洋—太平洋核心海域月平均2°×2°分辨率的海表温度偏差订正数据集.对海温偏差订正量的时空分布特征分析表明,基于自主研制的基础数据和优化改进的方法求解的偏差订正量能有效反映海表温度观测手段的历史变迁,以及海表温度系统性偏差随季节变化的规律.同时,与ERSST订正量的对比表明,由于优化改进后的方法其阈值计算随空间样本而变,因而其局地变化特征的表现能力更强,且其订正量在观测手段转型期的变化更为明显.相较订正前的海表温度距平（SSTA）场,订正后的SSTA资料与ERSSTv5 SSTA间的偏差误差和均方根误差均有明显降低.其中,偏差误差的缩减比例在37.7%~87.9%之间,均方根误差可降低0.06℃.此外,与国际同类产品的对比表明,本文发展的SSTA订正数据集与国际同类SSTA产品序列的相关系数不低于0.97,且变化趋势类似.从差异对比上看,除中高纬东亚大陆近海区域外,本文的偏差订正数据集与国际上同类产品的SSTA差异基本在-0.2~0.2℃之间.

     

华北地区中强震前卫星红外亮温变化研究

应用相对功率谱估计方法对华北地区中强地震前静止气象卫星热红外遥感亮温资料进行时频分析, 结果表明: 华北5级以上地震发生前存在显著的亮温热异常, 震前1个月左右异常开始出现, 高值幅值持续时间超过20天, 功率谱幅值最高可以达到平均值的7倍以上, 且发震区域一般位于异常区边缘或异常区域内的断层上。     

A low-order model for the response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation to climate change

Concern has been expressed that anthropogenic climate change may lead to a slowdown or even collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). Because of the possibly severe consequences that such an event could have on the northern North Atlantic and northwestern Europe, integrated assessment models (IAMs) are needed to explore the associated political and socioeconomic implications. State-of-the-art climate models representing the THC are, however, often too complex to be incorporated into an integrated assessment framework. In this paper we present a low-order model of the Atlantic THC which meets the main requirements of IAMs: it (1) is physically based, (2) is computationally highly efficient, (3) allows for comprehensive uncertainty analysis and (4) can be linked to globally aggregated climate models that are mostly used in IAMs. The model is an interhemispheric extension of the seminal Stommel model. Its parameters are determined by a least-squares fit to the output of a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity. Results of a number of transient global warming simulations indicate that the model is able to reproduce many features of the behaviour of coupled ocean–atmosphere circulation models such as the sensitivity of the THC to the amount, regional distribution and rate of climate change.Responsible Editor: Richard Greatbatch     

整点气温缺测的插补方法研究及其初步应用

长期连续完整的历史气温资料是震前气温异常判别研究的重要数据基础。本文考虑了参考站与缺测站之间的距离,建立改进的线性回归模型。利用该模型插补缺测和错误的气温整点值数据,在一定程度上解决了长期连续观测数据缺测的情况。通过对收集的唐山观测站气温整点值数据进行插补,并应用插补完整的数据分析研究了2012年5月28日唐山4.8级地震前兆异常。结果表明:①插补值与其前后观测值衔接吻合,插补后完整连续数据符合夏高冬低的年变规律;②插补误差在±0.5℃范围内的比例为60.2%,在±0.8℃范围内的比例为80.3%,其误差绝对值大于1.0℃的比例为9.6%,平均绝对误差为0.84℃,插补值与观测值的相关系数大部分在0.9以上;③从3月27日起出现增温异常,特别是震前2天增温幅度约8℃。