Energetics of gas-driven limnic and volcanic eruptions

This paper lays the foundation for the rigorous treatment of the energetics of gas exsolution from a gas-containing liquid, which powers gas-driven volcanic and limnic eruptions. Various exsolution processes (reversible or irreversible, slow or rapid) are discussed, and the maximum amount of kinetic energy derivable from a reversible gas exsolution process is obtained. The concept of dynamic irreversibility is proposed for discussing the kinetic energy available from irreversible gas exsolution processes. The changes of thermodynamic properties during gas exsolution processes are derived. Density–pressure relations for gas–liquid mixtures are presented, including empirical relations for irreversible gas exsolution. The energetics of gas-driven eruptions through both fluid and rigid media, including the role of buoyancy and the role of magma chamber expansion work, are investigated. For reversible processes, the energetics can be used to discuss the dynamics of gas-driven eruptions, leading to maximum erupting velocities and maximum eruptible fractions. For irreversible processes, empirical relations and parameters must be employed. The exit velocities of the Lake Nyos eruption and the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens are modeled by incorporating possible irreversibility.     

Chaos hides and generates order: An application to forecasting the next eruption of Vesuvius

The poissonian and non-fractal characters generally exhibited by the most intense natural events do not allow the application of the current exponential and power law long-term hazard predictive models, and have suggested searching for a new model. This has been set up also taking into account that the random sequence (representing disorder) of these events is linked to the duration of the stationary small ones (representing order). The model, proposed in terms of the orbit of a simple non-linear hazard function, simulates the large eruptions of Vesuvius quite well and permits estimation of the next subplinian eruption to occur there around A.D. 2030. A short range forecasting model based on the tidal triggering is also provided and discussed. When large tidally triggered M₂ term in the earthquakes at Vesuvius become significant at the 0.01 level the proposed long-term hazard model will yield a more accurate estimate of the above prediction.     

The activity of Vesuvius in the next millennium

The time distribution of the historical eruptions of Vesuvius allows the forecasting of the activity of the volcano for the next millennium according to three independent models. The next event with volcanic explosivity index (VEI)=4 is likely to occur during the next few decades followed by a decreasing number of smaller eruptions in the successive few centuries and by a very long period of quiescence up to the beginning of the following fourth millennium when the next Plinian event (VEI=5) might occur.     

Fragmentation of magma during Plinian volcanic eruptions

 The ratio of the volume of vesicles (gas) to that of glass (liquid) in pumice clasts (V _G /V _L ) reflects the degassing and dynamic history experienced by a magma during an explosive eruption. V _G /V _L in pumices from a large number of Plinian eruption deposits is shown here to vary by two orders of magnitude, even between pumices at a given level in a deposit. These variations in V _G /V _L do not correlate with crystallinity or initial water content of the magmas or their eruptive intensities, despite large ranges in these variables. Gas volume ratios of pumices do, however, vary systematically with magma viscosity estimated at the point of fragmentation, and we infer that pumices do not quench at the level of fragmentation but undergo some post-fragmentary evolution. On the timescale of Plinian eruptions, pumices with viscosities <10⁹ Pa s can expand after fragmentation, as long as their bubbles retain gas, at a rate inversely proportional to their viscosity. Once the bubbles connect to form a permeable network and lose their gas, expansion halts and pumices with viscosities <10⁵ Pa s can collapse under the action of surface tension. Textural evidence from bubble sizes and shapes in pumices indicates that both expansion and collapse have taken place. The magnitudes of expansion and collapse, therefore, depend critically on the timing of bubble connectivity relative to the final moment of quenching. We propose that bubbles in different pumices become connected at different times throughout the time span between fragmentation and quenching. After accounting for these effects, we derive new information on the fragmentation process from two characteristics of pumices. The most important is a relatively constant minimum value of V _G /V _L of ∼1.78 (64 vol.% vesicularity) in all samples with viscosities >10⁵ Pa s. This value is independent of magma composition and thus reflects a property of the eruptive mechanism. The other characteristic is that highly expanded pumices (>85 vol.% vesicularities) are common, which argues against overpressure in bubbles as a mechanism for fragmenting magma. We suggest that magma fragments when it reaches a vesicularity of ∼64 vol.%, but only if sheared sufficiently strongly. The intensity of shear varies as a function of velocity in the conduit, which is related to overpressure in the chamber, so that changes in overpressure with time are important in controlling the common progression from explosive to effusive activity at volcanoes. Received: 19 April 1995 / Accepted: 3 April 1996     

Victims from volcanic eruptions: a revised database

 The number of victims from volcanism and the primary cause(s) of death reported in the literature show considerable uncertainty. We present the results of investigations carried out either in contemporary accounts or in specific studies of eruptions that occurred since A.D. 1783. More than 220 000 people died because of volcanic activity during this period, which includes approximately 90% of the recorded deaths throughout history. Most of the fatalities resulted from post-eruption famine and epidemic disease (30.3%), nuées ardentes or pyroclastic flows and surges (26.8%), mudflows or lahars (17.1%), and volcanogenic tsunamis (16.9%). At present, however, international relief efforts might reduce the effects of post-eruption crop failure and disease, and at least some of the lahars could be anticipated in time by adequate scientific and social response. Thus, mitigation of hazards from pyroclastic flows and tsunamis will become of paramount importance to volcanologists and civil authorities. Received: 3 August 1997 / Accepted: 10 April 1998     

The effect of intensity of turbulence in umbrella cloud on tephra dispersion during explosive volcanic eruptions: Experimental and numerical approaches

During an explosive volcanic eruption, tephra fall out from the umbrella region of the eruption cloud to the ground surface. We investigated the effect of the intensity of turbulence in the umbrella cloud on dispersion and sedimentation of tephra by performing a series of laboratory experiments and three dimensional (3-D) numerical simulations. In the laboratory experiments, spherical glass-bead particles are mixed in stirred water with various intensities of turbulence, and the spatial distribution and the temporal evolution of the particle concentration are measured. The experimental results show that, when the root-mean-square of velocity fluctuation in the fluid (W_rms) is much greater than the particle terminal velocity (v_t), the particles are homogeneously distributed in the fluid, and settle at their terminal velocities at the base of the fluid where turbulence diminishes. On the other hand, when W_rms is as small as or smaller than v_t, the particle concentration increases toward the base of the fluid during settling, which substantially increases the rate of particle settling. The results of the 3-D simulations of eruption cloud indicate that W_rms is up to 40 m/s in most of the umbrella cloud even during a large scale plinian eruption with a magma discharge rate of 10⁹ kg/s. These results suggest that relatively coarse pyroclasts (more than a few mm in diameter) tend to concentrate around the base of the umbrella cloud, whereas fine pyroclasts (less than 1/8 mm in diameter) may be distributed homogeneously throughout the umbrella cloud during tephra dispersion. The effect of the gradient of particle concentration in the umbrella cloud explains the granulometric data of the Pinatubo 1991 plinian deposits.     

Thermodynamics of gas and steam-blast eruptions

Eruptions of gas or steam and non-juvenile debris are common in volcanic and hydrothermal areas. From reports of non-juvenile eruptions or eruptive sequences world-wide, at least three types (or end-members) can be identified: (1) those involving rock and liquid water initially at boiling-point temperatures (boiling-point eruptions); (2) those powered by gas (primarily water vapor) at initial temperatures approaching magmatic (gas eruptions); and (3) those caused by rapid mixing of hot rock and ground- or surface water (mixing eruptions). For these eruption types, the mechanical energy released, final temperatures, liquid water contents and maximum theoretical velocities are compared by assuming that the erupting mixtures of rock and fluid thermally equilibrate, then decompress isentropically from initial, near-surface pressure (10 MPa) to atmospheric pressure. Maximum mechanical energy release is by far greatest for gas eruptions (1.3 MJ/kg of fluid-rock mixture)-about one-half that of an equivalent mass of gunpowder and one-fourth that of TNT. It is somewhat less for mixing eruptions (0.4 MJ/kg), and least for boiling-point eruptions (0.25 MJ/kg). The final water contents of crupted boiling-point mixtures are usually high, producing wet, sloppy deposits. Final erupted mixtures from gas eruptions are nearly always dry, whereas those from mixing eruptions vary from wet to dry. If all the enthalpy released in the eruptions were converted to kinetic energy, the final velocity (v _max) of these mixtures could range up to 670 m/s for boiling-point eruptions and 1820 m/s for gas eruptions (highest for high initial pressure and mass fractions of rock (m _r) near zero). For mixing eruptions, v _max ranges up to 1150 m/s. All observed eruption velocities are less than 400 m/s, largely because (1) most solid material is expelled when m _r is high, hence v _max is low; (2) observations are made of large blocks the velocities of which may be less than the average for the mixture; (3) heat from solid particles is not efficiently transferred to the fluid during the eruptions; and (4) maximum velocities are reduced by choked flow or friction in the conduit.     

Long-term forecasting of the extreme eruptions of Etna

Until now, the widely used predictive long-term hazard models of the most intense natural phenomena do not yield predictions other than the mean return period. To achieve less uncertain estimates, an alternative model is proposed. The analysis of the eruptions of Etna from 1868 to 1993 shows that the time interval D_t between consecutive large eruptions is clearly random, whereas the total volume of tephra ejected during D_t is roughly constant. Taking into account the above evidence, the model yields significant long-term forecasts both of the time and of the intensity of future large eruptions. The large volume of tephra ejected by the volcano since the last intense eruption in 1980 allows the model to estimate that the next large eruption will not to take place soon.     

Volcanic tremor during eruptions: Temporal characteristics,scaling and constraints on conduit size and processes

We investigated characteristics of eruption tremor observed for 24 eruptions at 18 volcanoes based on published reports. In particular, we computed reduced displacements (D_R) to normalize the data and examined tremor time histories. We observed: (a) maximum D_R is approximately proportional to the square root of the cross sectional area of the vent, however, with lower than expected slope; (b) about one half of the cases show approximately exponential increases in D_R at the beginnings of eruptions, on a scale of minutes to hours; (c) one half of the cases show a sustained maximum level of tremor; (d) more than 90% of the cases show approximately exponential decay at the ends of eruptions, also on a scale of minutes to hours; and (e) exponential increases, if they occur, are commonly associated with the first large stage of eruptions. We estimate the radii of the vents using several methods and reconcile the topographic estimates, which are systematically too large, with those obtained from D_R itself and theoretical considerations. We compare scaling of tremor D_R with that for explosions and find that explosions have large absolute pressures and scale with vent radius squared, whereas tremor consists of pressure fluctuations that have lower amplitudes than the absolute pressure of explosions, and the scaling is different. We explore several methods to determine the appropriate scaling. This characteristic helps us to distinguish the type of eruptions: explosive (Vulcanian or Strombolian) eruptions versus sustained or continuous ash (e.g. Plinian) eruptions. Average eruption discharge, estimated from the total volume of tephra and the total duration of eruption tremor, is well correlated with peak discharge calculated from cross sectional area of the vent and velocity of volcanic ejecta. These results suggest similar scaling between different eruption types and the overall usefulness of monitoring tremor for evaluating volcanic activity.     

The hazards of eruptions through lakes and seawater

Eruptions through crater lakes or shallow seawater, referred to here as subaqueous eruptions, present hazards from hydromagmatic explosions, such as base surges, lahars, and tsunamis, which may not exist at volcanoes on dry land. We have systematically compiled information from eruptions through surface water in order to understand the circumstances under which these hazards occur and what disastrous effects they have caused in the past. Subaqueous eruptions represent only 8% of all recorded eruptions but have produced about 20% of all fatalities associated with volcanic activity in historical time. Excluding eruptions that have resulted in about a hundred deaths or less, lahars have killed people in the largest number of historical subaqueous eruptions (8), followed by pyroclastic flows (excluding base surges; 5) tsunamis (4), and base surges (2). Subaqueous eruptions have produced lahars primarily on high (>1000 m), steep-sided volcanoes containing small (<1 km diameter) crater lakes. Tsunamis and other water waves have caused death or destroyed man-made structures only at submarine volcanoes and at Lake Taal in the Philippines. In spite of evidence that magma–water mixing makes eruptions more explosive, such explosions and their associated base surges have caused fewer deaths, and have been implicated in fewer eruptions involving large numbers of fatalities than lahars and tsunamis. The latter hazards are more deadly because they travel much farther from a volcano and inundate coastal areas and stream valleys that tend to be densely settled.     

The effect of volcanic eruptions on the chemistry of surface waters: The 1991 and 2000 eruptions of Mt. Hekla,Iceland

The Mt. Hekla eruptions in 1991 and 2000 have provided a unique opportunity to study the local environmental effects of high latitude volcanic eruptions in the middle of winter. Both eruptions started around sunset at sub-zero temperatures. In order to define better these effects we studied the chemistry of surface waters in the vicinity of the volcano. Additionally, we describe and predict the environmental consequences of these volcanic eruptions on the chemistry of surface waters on land and in the ocean.     

Formation and development of normal-fault calderas and the initiation of large explosive eruptions

The ring fractures that form most collapse calderas are steeply inward-dipping shear fractures, i.e., normal faults. At the surface of the volcano within which the caldera fault forms, the tensile and shear stresses that generate the normal-fault caldera must peak at a certain radial distance from the surface point above the center of the source magma chamber of the volcano. Numerical results indicate that normal-fault calderas may initiate as a result of doming of an area containing a shallow sill-like magma chamber, provided that the area of doming is much larger than the cross-sectional area of the chamber and that the internal excess pressure in the chamber is smaller than that responsible for doming. This model is supported by the observation that many caldera collapses are preceded by a long period of doming over an area much larger than that of the subsequently formed caldera. When the caldera fault does not slip, eruptions from calderas are normally small. Nearly all large explosive eruptions, however, are associated with slip on caldera faults. During dip slip on, and doming of, a normal-fault caldera, the vertical stress on part of the underlying chamber suddenly decreases. This may lead to explosive bubble growth in this part of the magma chamber, provided its magma is gas rich. This bubble growth can generate an excess fluid pressure that is sufficiently high to drive a large fraction of the magma out of the chamber during an explosive eruption. Received: 2 January 1997 / Accepted: 22 April 1998     

A multidisciplinary effort to assign realistic source parameters to models of volcanic ash-cloud transport and dispersion during eruptions

During volcanic eruptions, volcanic ash transport and dispersion models (VATDs) are used to forecast the location and movement of ash clouds over hours to days in order to define hazards to aircraft and to communities downwind. Those models use input parameters, called “eruption source parameters”, such as plume height H, mass eruption rate Ṁ, duration D, and the mass fraction m₆₃ of erupted debris finer than about 4 or 63 μm, which can remain in the cloud for many hours or days. Observational constraints on the value of such parameters are frequently unavailable in the first minutes or hours after an eruption is detected. Moreover, observed plume height may change during an eruption, requiring rapid assignment of new parameters. This paper reports on a group effort to improve the accuracy of source parameters used by VATDs in the early hours of an eruption. We do so by first compiling a list of eruptions for which these parameters are well constrained, and then using these data to review and update previously studied parameter relationships. We find that the existing scatter in plots of H versus Ṁ yields an uncertainty within the 50% confidence interval of plus or minus a factor of four in eruption rate for a given plume height. This scatter is not clearly attributable to biases in measurement techniques or to well-recognized processes such as elutriation from pyroclastic flows. Sparse data on total grain-size distribution suggest that the mass fraction of fine debris m₆₃ could vary by nearly two orders of magnitude between small basaltic eruptions ( 0.01) and large silicic ones (> 0.5). We classify eleven eruption types; four types each for different sizes of silicic and mafic eruptions; submarine eruptions; “brief” or Vulcanian eruptions; and eruptions that generate co-ignimbrite or co-pyroclastic flow plumes. For each eruption type we assign source parameters. We then assign a characteristic eruption type to each of the world's  1500 Holocene volcanoes. These eruption types and associated parameters can be used for ash-cloud modeling in the event of an eruption, when no observational constraints on these parameters are available.     

Variable effects of cinder-cone eruptions on prehistoric agrarian human populations in the American southwest

Two ∼ 900 BP cinder-cone eruptions in the American Southwest affected prehistoric human populations in different ways, mostly because of differences in the eruption styles and area affected. Primary pre-eruption cultural factors that may have led to successful adaptation to the eruptions include decision-making at the family or household level, low investment in site structures, dispersion of agricultural sites in varied environments, and settlement spread over a large area so that those who were less affected could shelter and feed evacuees.     

Study on relationship between historical volcanic eruptions and historical strong earthquakes in China and its adjacent regions

This thesis lists and describes 6 pairs of tectonic events, i.e., historical volcanic eruptions associated with historical strong earthquakes, based on the analysis for the records of historical volcanic eruptions and historical strong earthquakes in China and its adjacent region since the first record. And discusses the relationship between historical eruptions and strong earthquakes by means of analyzing the characteristics of tectonic events themselves, plate movement, regional seismicity, and regional stress environment in China and its adjacent region.     

Medical effects of volcanic eruptions

Excluding famine and tsunamis, most deaths in volcanic eruptions have been from pyroclastic flows and surges (nuées ardentes) and wet debris flows (lahars). Information on the causes of death and injury in eruptions is sparse but the available literature is summarised for the benefit of volcanologists and emergency planners. In nuées, thermal injury may be at least as important as asphyxia in causing immediate deaths. The high temperature of the gases and entrained particles readily causes severe burns to the skin and the air passages and the presence of both types of injury in an individual may combine to increase the delayed mortality risk from respiratory complications or from infection of burns. Trauma from missiles or body displacement is also common, but the role of asphyxiant or irritant gases, and steam, remains unclear. The ratio of dead: injured is much higher than in other natural disasters. At the periphery of a nuée being protected inside buildings which remain intact appears to greatly increase the chances of survival. In lahars, infected wounds and crush injury are the main delayed causes of death, and the scope for preventive measures, other than evacuation, is small. The evidence from Mount St. Helens, 1980, and other major eruptions indicates that, although mortality is high within the main zone of devastation and in the open, emergency planning should concentrate on the periphery of a nuée where preventive measures are feasible and could save many lives in densely populated areas.     

Scaling vesicle distributions and volcanic eruptions

Models of coalescence-decompressive expansion of the later stages of bubble growth predict that for diverse types of volcanic products the vesicle number densities (n(V)) are of the scaling form where V is the volume of the vesicles and B₃ the 3-dimensional scaling (power law) exponent. We analyze cross sections of 9 pumice samples showing that over the range of bubble sizes from 10 m to 3 cm, they are well fit with B₃0.85. We show that to within experimental error, this exponent is the same as that reported in the literature for basaltic lavas, and other volcanic products. The importance of the scaling of vesicle distributions is highlighted by the observation that they are particularly effective at packing bubbles allowing very high vesicularities to be reached before the critical percolation threshold, a process which—for highly stressed magmas—would trigger explosion. In this way the scaling of the bubble distributions allows them to be key actors in determining the rheological properties and in eruption dynamics.Editorial responsibility: D. Dingwell     

Effect of Mesozoic volcanic eruptions in the western Liaoning Province,China on paleoclimate and paleoenvironment

Volatiles emitted during volcanic eruptions have an significant effect on the climate and environmental changes[1]. Different compositions of volatiles released may result in different trends of climate and environmental changes. Amounts of the erupted …     

Large thrust earthquakes and volcanic eruptions

Forty-eight hours after the occurrence of the May 22, 1960 (M _W =9.5) Chile earthquake, Puyehue volcano initiated its eruptive activity. The closeness in space and time of both phenomena provides us with a unique opportunity to examine the possible causal relationship between the sudden strain change and the mechanism of the eruption. From the slip distribution of the 1960 event (Barrientos andWard, 1990) and a static propagator technique, which allows for variable slip faults in vertically heterogeneous media, I calculate the strain field and its depth dependence in the region beneath the volcano. The presented semi-analytical formalism can be applied to any two-dimensional dipping fault. Calculations show extension at the surface of the order of 40 strain, in agreement with what was observed in triangulation networks in the central valley about 50 km oceanward from the line of volcanoes. The amplitude of the strain field beneath the volcano is uniform up to a depth of 20 km and decreases downward. The sudden extension of the region is thought to be the main factor in facilitating the eruption of the volcano. It is postulated that strain beneath the volcano triggered the eruption of the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcanic system because it was in a mature stage of its eruptive cycle and there was lack of eruptive activity in other volcanoes located along the 1960 rupture region in the immediate period following the earthquake.