Assessing possible changes in flood frequency due to climate change in mid‐sized watersheds in New York State,USA

The frequency of flooding is often presumed to increase with climate change because of projected increases in rainfall intensities. In this paper, using 50‐plus years of historical discharge and meteorological data from three watersheds in different physiographic regions of New York State, USA, we find that annual maximum stream discharges are associated with 20% or less of the annual maximum rainfall events. Instead of rainfall events, approximately 20% of annual maximum stream discharges are associated with annual maximum snowmelt events while 60% of annual maximum discharges are associated with moderate rainfall amounts and very wet soil conditions. To explore the potential for changes in future flood risk, we employed a compound frequency distribution that assumes annual maximum discharges can be modelled by combining the cumulative distribution functions of discharges resulting from annual maximum rainfall, annual maximum snowmelt, and occurrences of moderate rain on wet soils. Basing on a compound frequency distribution comprised of univariate general extreme value (GEV) and gamma distributions, we found that a hypothetical 20% increase in the magnitude of rainfall‐related stream discharge results in little change in 96th percentile annual maximum discharge. For the 99th percentile discharge, two waterbodies in our study had a 10% or less increase in annual maximum discharge when annual maximum rainfall‐related discharges increased 20% while the third waterbody had a 16% increase in annual maximum discharges. Additionally, in some cases, annual maximum discharges could be offset by a reduction in the discharge resulting from annual maximum snowmelt events. While only intended as a heuristic tool to explore the interaction among different flood‐causing mechanisms, use of a compound flood frequency distribution suggests a case can be made that not all waterbodies in humid, cold regions will see extensive changes in flooding due to increased rainfall intensities. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stochastic evaluation of subsurface contaminant discharges under physical,chemical, and biological heterogeneities

A finite element 2D Monte Carlo approach is used to evaluate the sensitivity of groundwater contaminant discharges to a Damkohler number ω and spatial variability in aquifer hydraulic conductivity, initial microbial biomass concentrations, and electron acceptor/donor concentrations. Bioattenuation is most sensitive to spatial variations in incipient biomass and critical electron donors/acceptors for ω ≥ 1 (i.e., when pore-water residence times are high compared to the time needed for microbial growth or contaminant attenuation). Under these conditions, critical reaction processes can become substrate-limited at multiple locations throughout the aquifer; which in turn increases expected contaminant discharges and their uncertainties at monitored transects. For ω ≤ 0.2, contaminant discharge is not sensitive to incipient biomass variations. Physical heterogeneities expedite plume arrival and delay departure at transects and in turn attenuate peak discharges but do not affect cumulative contaminant discharges. Physical heterogeneities do, however, induce transect mass discharge variances that are bimodal functions of time; the first peak beings consistently higher. A simple stream tube model is invoked to explain the occurrence of peaks in contaminant discharge variance.     

Anomalous propagation of VHF radiowaves behind the horizon in the seismic region

A theory of electromagnetic radiation generation by random electric discharges in the troposphere and VHF radiowave scattering by these discharges has been developed. The discharge model, which makes it possible to calculate the spatiotemporal distribution of the discharge channel conductivity depending on the electric current value in this discharge, has been obtained. The electromagnetic radiation spectrum in the troposphere occupied by random discharges has been calculated. VHF electromagnetic wave scattering by random electric discharges in the troposphere has been considered. Equations have been derived, and the method for calculating the average value of the electromagnetic wave field scattered by random discharges has been developed. The calculations indicated that the scattered wave field amplitude is much larger than the diffraction wave field amplitude behind the horizon. The theoretical results agree with the observations of the electromagnetic radiation and VHF transmitter signals behind the horizon relative to the earthquake epicenter during the earthquake preparation.     

Application of a wind-driven hydrodynamic model for the quantification of transport in an open boundary canal-lakes system in sw Friesland,The Netherlands

The south western lake district is a part of the boezem, a system of interconnected lakes and canals in the province of Friesland. The lake district has open boundaries with the other part of the boezem system. However, discharges in the boundary canals are unknown. These discharges are needed for modelling the phosphorus dynamics in the study area. Incidental water flow measurements gave a good indication of the complex water transport in the study area, but continuous water flow recording was not possible. Consequently, discharges could not be measured directly. In order to quantify the discharges, the water transport in the area was modelled by the application of a detailed wind-driven hydrodynamic model. In the model hourly mean values of wind data and water levels at the boundary locations were used as forcing functions. Model tuning was done by comparing observed and computed water levels of three stations within the system. This approach is new in surface water systems in The Netherlands. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis was done and it was verified whether the model results were reliable.The sensitivity analysis showed that the sensitivity was low for modifications of the wind exponent value and rather high for the bottom roughness coefficient. Simulations with daily or weekly mean wind and water level data resulted in an undesirable loss of detail. The sensitivity for noise at the imposed water levels at the boundary locations was moderate. The calculated discharges were used as forcing functions for a chloride mass balance model. Calculated chloride concentrations coincided with measured concentrations in three lakes, during three periods. From this it was concluded that the discharges were reliable. The simulations also lead to the quantification of the water balance and water residence times in the lakes.     

A data assimilation approach to discharge estimation from space

River discharge is currently monitored by a diminishing network of gauges, which provide a spatially incomplete picture of global discharges. This study assimilated water level information derived from a fused satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image and digital terrain model (DTM) with simulations from a coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic model to estimate discharge in an un‐gauged basin scenario. Assimilating water level measurements led to a 79% reduction in ensemble discharge uncertainty over the coupled hydrological hydrodynamic model alone. Measurement bias was evident, but the method still provided a means of improving estimates of discharge for high flows. The study demonstrates the potential of currently available synthetic aperture radar imagery to reduce discharge uncertainty in un‐gauged basins when combined with model simulations in a data assimilation framework, where sufficient topographic data are available. The work is timely because in the near future the launch of satellite radar missions will lead to a significant increase in the volume of data available for space‐borne discharge estimation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling discharge from a coastal watershed in southeast Sweden using an integrated framework

The field hydrology model DRAINMOD integrated with Arc Hydro in geographical information system (GIS) framework (Arc Hydro–DRAINMOD) was used to simulate the hydrological response of a coastal watershed in southeast Sweden. Arc Hydro–DRAINMOD uses a distributed approach to route water from each field edge to the watershed outlet. In the framework the Arc Hydro data model was used to describe the stream network in the watershed and to connect the individual simulated DRAINMOD‐field outflow time series from each plot using Arc Hydro schema‐links features, which were summed at Arc Hydro schema‐nodes features along the stream network to generate the stream network flow. Hydrology data collected during six periods between 2003 and 2008 were used to test Arc Hydro–DRAINMOD and its performance was evaluated by considering uncertainties in model inputs using generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). The GLUE estimates obtained (uncertainty bands 5% and 95%) agreed satisfactorily with measured monthly discharges. The percentage of time in which the observed discharges were bracketed by the uncertainty bands was 88% in calibration periods and 75% in validation periods. Although monthly time step simulations showed good agreement with observed discharges during the two main discharge events in spring, the contradictory daily time step results indicate that the watershed response simulations on a daily basis need to be improved. The uncertainty analysis showed that in periods of higher discharge, such as spring periods, the uncertainty in prediction was higher. It is important to note that these uncertainty estimations using the GLUE procedure include the uncertainties in measured discharge values, model inputs, boundary conditions and model structures. It was estimated that stream baseflow represented 42% of the total watershed discharge, but further research is needed to confirm this. These results show that the new Arc Hydro–DRAINMOD framework is applicable for predicting discharge from artificially drained watersheds in southeast Sweden. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Future fluvial erosion and sedimentation potential of cohesive sediments in a coastal river reach of SW Finland

This study aims to analyse the combined impacts of future discharges and sea levels on erosion–sedimentation potential, and its seasonal changes, in a ~43‐km‐long coastal river reach of South‐west Finland. To our knowledge, this kind of combined study has not been performed before. In addition to surveying the present erosion–sedimentation conditions, the daily erosion–sedimentation potential is simulated with a one‐dimensional hydrodynamic model for the 1971–2000 and 2070–2099 periods by applying four discharge scenarios. Different sea level stages are also employed in the simulations. All scenarios forecast increasing autumn and winter discharges, but diminishing summer discharges. This indicates increasing river channel erosion, particularly during winters and autumns. Although discharge changes have altogether a greater influence on erosion–sedimentation potential, the importance of sea level changes on sedimentation is noticeable in the estuary. The rising sea level scenarios increase the sedimentation potential. In total, by 2070–2099, the erosion potential may increase in most parts of the study area. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Structure and stability of the former subglacial drainage system of the glacier De Tsanfleuron,Switzerland

A well-developed subglacial drainage system consisting of large cavities developed in the lee of bedrock steps connected together by a network of Nye channels is exposed on an area of recently deglaciated limestone bedrock in front of Glacier de Tsanfleuron, Switzerland. This system covers some 51 per cent of the bedrock surface area, and is believed to have transported the bulk of supraglacially-derived meltwaters through the glacier. Using the cavity hydraulics model of Kamb (1987), it is shown that the geometry of the system rendered it stable against collapse by meltback of channel roofs into a tunnel-dominated system. For likely combinations of glacier geometry and meltwater discharge, the steady state water pressure in this system would have been only a small fraction of that required for flotation, and for discharges of less than about 0·5–5 m³ s^?1 water would have flowed at atmospheric pressure. The system appears to have adjusted to varying discharges by a combination of varying water pressure and changing the total cross-sectional area of flow by altering the number of active channels connecting cavities. Glacier sliding velocity would have been independent of meltwater discharge for discharges at which water flowed at atmospheric pressure, but would have risen with increasing discharge for higher flows. Velocities on the order of 0·1 m d^?1 are predicted for a realistic range of discharges and effective pressures, and these are believed to be plausible. Episodes of enhanced sliding in glaciers with similar drainage systems could be triggered by a rise in meltwater discharge across the threshold between flows at atmospheric pressure and flow under pressure from the glacier.     

Channel change,bankfull and effective discharges on a vertically accreting,meandering, gravel‐bed river

Along the lower reaches of the Waipaoa River, New Zealand, cross‐section survey data indicate there was a 23 per cent decrease in bankfull width and a 22 per cent reduction in channel cross‐section area between 1948 and 2000, as the channel responded to increased inputs of fine (suspended) sediment following deforestation of the headwaters in late C19 and early C20. We determined the bankfull discharge within a ～39 km long reach by routing known discharges through the one‐dimensional MIKE 11 flow model. The model runs suggest that the bankfull discharge varies between ～800 and ～2300 m³ s^?1 and that the average recurrence interval is 4 ± 2 years on the annual maximum series; by contrast, the effective flow (360 m³ s^?1) is equaled or exceeded three times a year. The variability in bankfull discharge arises because the banks tend to be lower in places where flood flows are constricted than in reaches where overbank flow is dispersed over a wide area, and because scour has counteracted aggradation in some locations. There is no downstream variation in Shields stress, or in relative shear stress, within the study reach. Bankfull shear stress is, on average, five times greater than the shear stress required to initiate motion. At the effective discharge it is more than twice the threshold value. The effective discharge probably has more relevance than the bankfull discharge to the overall picture of sediment movement in the lower reaches of the Waipaoa River but, because width is constrained by the stability and resistance of the bank material to erosion during high flows that also scour the bed, the overall channel geometry is likely determined by discharges at or near bankfull. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A risk assessment model for produced water discharge from offshore petroleum platforms-development and validation

Produced water discharge accounts for the greater portion of wastes arising from offshore oil and gas production operations. Development and expansion of Canada’s offshore oil and gas reserves has led to concerns over the potential long-term impacts of produced water discharges to the ocean. To examine this emerging environmental issue at a regional scale, an integrated risk assessment approach was developed in this study based on the princeton ocean model (POM), a random walk (RW) and Monte Carlo simulation. The use of water quality standards arrayed in a Monte Carlo design in the developed approach has served to reflect uncertainties and quantify environmental risks associated with produced water discharge. The model was validated against field data from a platform operating off Canada’s east coast, demonstrating its usefulness in supporting effective management of future produced water discharge.     

Wind and freshwater influence over hydrocarbon dispersal on Patos Lagoon, Brazil

The two-dimensional barotropic, hydrodynamic and transport model MOHID is applied to the Patos Lagoon system using a nested modelling approach to reproduce both the lagoon and estuary hydrodynamics. A new Lagrangian oil spill model is presented and used to simulate a hypothetical oil spill in the estuary. Hydrodynamic fields are validated and used to force the oil model. Results show that the hydrodynamics of this system is mainly controlled by the wind and freshwater discharge. The dispersion, concentration and thickness evolution of the oil in the first day after the spill is determined by the equilibrium between these two factors. The freshwater discharge is the major factor controlling the oil dispersion for discharges greater than 5000 m3 while the wind assumes control for lower discharge amounts. The results presented are a first step toward a coastal management tool for the Patos Lagoon.     

Neural network simulation of spring flow in karst environments

Daily discharges of two springs lying in a karstic environment were simulated for a period of 2.5 years with the use of a multi-layer perceptron back-propagation neural network. Two models were developed for the springs, one relying on the original data and another where the missing discharge values were supplemented by assuming linear relationships during base flow conditions. For both springs the mean square error of the two models did not differ significantly, with an improvement exhibited at the extremes, during the network’s training phase, by the model that utilized the extended data set, the results of which are reported here. The time lag between precipitation and spring discharge differed significantly for the two springs indicating that in karstic environments hydraulic behavior is dominated, even within a few hundred meters, by local conditions. Optimum training results were attained with a Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm resulting in a network architecture consisting of two input layer neurons, four hidden layer neurons, and one output layer neuron, the spring’s discharge. The neural network’s predictions captured the behavior for both springs and followed very closely the discontinuities in the discharge time series. Under-/over-estimation of observed discharges for the two springs remained below 3 %, with the exception of a few local maxima where the predicted discharges diverged more strongly from observed values. Inclusion of temperature data did not add to the improvement of predictions. Finally, optimum predictions were attained when past discharge data were added to the input record and discharge differentials rather than direct discharges were calculated resulting in elimination of any local maximum discrepancy between observed and predicted discharge values.     

Evaluating relative sensitivity of SWAT‐simulated nitrogen discharge to projected climate and land cover changes for two watersheds in North Carolina,USA

We investigated how projected changes in land cover and climate affected simulated nitrate (NO₃^?) and organic nitrogen discharge for two watersheds within the Neuse River Basin, North Carolina, USA, for years 2010–2070. We applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool watershed model to predict nitrogen discharge using (1) atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (2) land cover change predicted by the Integrated Climate and Land Use Change project and (3) precipitation and temperature simulated by two statistically downscaled and bias‐corrected Global Circulation Models. We determined the sensitivity of simulated nitrogen discharge to separate changes in each treatment [(1) CO₂, (2) land cover and (3) precipitation and temperature (PT)] by comparing each treatment to a reference condition. Results showed that nitrogen discharges were most sensitive to changes in PT over the 60‐year simulation. Nitrogen discharges had similar sensitivities to the CO₂ and land cover treatments, which were only one‐tenth the influence of the PT treatment. Under the CO₂ treatment, nitrogen discharges increased with increasing ambient CO₂. NO₃^? discharge decreased with increased urbanization; however, organic nitrogen had a varied response. Under the PT treatment, there was high spatial variability in nitrogen discharges. In a single year, certain sub‐basins showed an 80% increase in nitrogen discharge relative to reference, while others showed a 400% decrease. With nitrogen discharge showing high sensitivity to PT change, we suggest that more emphasis should be placed on investigating impacts of PT on nutrient transport in the Neuse River Basin. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA     

Hydrological variability of major French rivers over recent decades,assessed from gauging station and GRACE observations

Abstract

This study was carried out in the framework of the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) programme of the French National Centre of Space Studies (CNES). Based on discharge measurements and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) determination of total water storage (TWS), we have investigated the hydrological variability of the main French drainage basins (Seine, Loire, Garonne and Rhône) using a wavelet approach (continuous wavelet analyses and wavelet coherence analyses). The results of this analysis have shown a coherence ranging between 82% and 90% for TWS and discharge, thus demonstrating the potential use of TWS for characterization of the hydrological variability of French rivers. Strong coherence between the four basin discharges (between 73% and 92%) and between their associated TWS data (from 82% to 98%) suggested a common external influence on hydrological variability. To determine this influence, we investigated the relationship between hydrological variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), considered as an index of prevailing climate in Europe. Basin discharges show strong coherence with NAO, ranging between 64% and 72% over the period 1959–2010. The coherence between NAO and TWS was 62% to 67% for 2003–2009. This is similar to the coherence between NAO and basin discharges detected for the same period. According to these results, strong influence of the NAO was clearly observed on the TWS and discharges of the major French river basins.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz     

Recent variation in reach‐scale bankfull discharge in the Lower Yellow River

Bankfull discharge is a key parameter in the context of river engineering and geomorphology, as an indicator of flood discharge capacity in alluvial rivers, and varying in response to the incoming flow and sediment regimes. Bankfull channel dimensions have significantly adjusted along the Lower Yellow River (LYR) due to recent channel degradation, caused by the operation of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir, which has led to longitudinal variability in cross‐sectional bankfull discharges. Therefore, it is more representative to describe the flood discharge capacity of the LYR, using the concept of reach‐averaged bankfull discharge. Previous simple mean methods to estimate reach‐scale bankfull discharge cannot meet the condition of flow continuity or account for the effect of different spacing between two sections. In this study, a general method to calculate cross‐sectional bankfull discharge using the simulated stage‐discharge relation is outlined briefly, and an integrated method is then proposed for estimating reach‐scale bankfull discharge. The proposed method integrates a geometric mean based on the log‐transformation with a weighted average based on the spacing between two consecutive sections, which avoids the shortcomings of previous methods. The post‐flood reach‐scale bankfull discharges in three different channel‐pattern reaches of the LYR were estimated annually during the period from 1999 to 2010 using the proposed method, based on surveyed post‐flood profiles at 91 sedimentation sections and the measured hydrological data at seven hydrometric sections. The calculated results indicate that: (i) the estimated reach‐scale bankfull discharges can effectively represent the flood discharge capacity of different reaches, with their ranges of variation being less than those of typical cross‐sectional bankfull discharges; and (ii) the magnitude of the reach‐scale bankfull discharge in each reach can respond well to the accumulative effect of incoming flow and sediment conditions. Finally, empirical relationships for different reaches in the LYR were developed between the reach‐scale bankfull discharge and the previous four‐year average discharge and incoming sediment coefficient during flood seasons, with relatively high correlation coefficients between them being obtained, and the reach‐scale bankfull discharges in different reaches predicted by the delayed response model were also presented for a comparison. These relations for the prediction of reach‐scale bankfull discharges were validated using the cross‐sectional profiles and hydrological data measured in 2011. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Michigan basin regional ground water flow discharge to three Great Lakes

Ground water discharge to the Great Lakes around the Lower Peninsula of Michigan is primarily from recharge in riparian basins and proximal upland areas that are especially important to the northern half of the Lake Michigan shoreline. A steady-state finite-difference model was developed to simulate ground water flow in four regional aquifers in Michigan's Lower Peninsula: the Glaciofluvial, Saginaw, Parma-Bayport, and Marshall aquifers interlayered with the Till/"red beds," Saginaw, and Michigan confining units, respectively. The model domain was laterally bound by a continuous specified-head boundary, formed from lakes Michigan, Huron, St. Clair, and Erie, with the St. Clair and Detroit River connecting channels. The model was developed to quantify regional ground water flow in the aquifer systems using independently determined recharge estimates. According to the flow model, local stream stages and discharges account for 95% of the overall model water budget; only 50% enters the lakes directly from the ground water system. Direct ground water discharge to the Great Lakes' shorelines was calculated at 36 m3/sec, accounting for 5% of the overall model water budget. Lowland areas contribute far less ground water discharge to the Great Lakes than upland areas. The model indicates that Saginaw Bay receives only approximately 1.13 m3/sec ground water; the southern half of the Lake Michigan shoreline receives only approximately 2.83 m3/sec. In contrast, the northern half of the Lake Michigan shoreline receives more than 17 m3/sec from upland areas.     

Delayed response model for bankfull discharge predictions in the Yellow River

Delayed response means that channels cannot achieve a new equilibrium state immediately following disruption;the channel requires a response time or relaxation time to reach equilibrium.It follows that the morphological state of fluvial system represents the cumulative effects of all previous disturbances and environmental conditions.A unique feature of the delayed response model for bankfull discharge is that the model is capable of representing the cumulative effects of all previous flow conditions when applied to predict the path/trajectories of bankfull discharge in response to altered flow regimes.In this paper,the delayed response model was modified by readjusting the weight for the initial boundary conditions and introducing a variableβwith respect to time.The modified model was then applied to the bankfull discharge calculations for three selected river reaches of the Yellow River,with each reach having different geomorphic settings and constraints. Results indicated that the modified model can predict accurately the bankfull discharge variation in response to changes in flow discharge and sediment load conditions that have been dramatically altered in the past.Results also demonstrated the strong dependence of current bankfull discharge on the previous years’ flow conditions,with the relaxation time varied from 2 to 14 years,meaning that the bankfull discharge was not only affected by the flow discharge and sediment load in the current year,but also by those in previous 1 to 13 years.Furthermore,the relaxation time of bankfull discharge adjustment was inversely proportional to the long-term average suspended sediment concentrations,and this may be explained by fact that high sediment concentrations may have a high potential to perform geomorphic work and there is more sediment readily available to shape the channel boundary and geometry.     

Investigation of spatially distributed braided river flows using a two‐dimensional hydraulic model

This paper reports the application of a two‐dimensional hydraulic model to a braided reach of the Avoca River, New Zealand. Field measurements of water surface elevation, depth and velocity obtained at low flow were used to validate the model and to optimize the parameterization of bed friction. The main systematic trends in the measured flow variables are reproduced by the model. However, field data are characterized by greater spatial variability than model output reflecting differences in the scale of processes measured in the field and represented by the model. Additional model runs were conducted to simulate flow patterns within the study reach at five higher discharges. The purpose of these simulations was to evaluate the potential for using two‐dimensional hydraulic models to quantify the reach‐scale hydraulic characteristics of braided rivers and their dependence on discharge. Changes in flow depth and velocity with increasing discharge exhibit trends that are consistent with the results of previous field investigations, although the tendency for the wetted area of the braidplain within particular depth and velocity categories to remain fixed as discharge rises, as has been noted for several braided rivers in New Zealand, was not observed. Modelled shear stress frequency distributions fit gamma functions that incorporate a distribution shape parameter, the value of which follows clear systematic trends with rising discharge. These results illustrate both the problems of, and potential for, using two‐dimensional hydraulic models in braided river applications. This leads to something of a paradox in that while such models provide a means of generating hydraulic information that would be difficult to obtain in the field at an equivalent spatial resolution, they are, due to the problems inherent to data collection, difficult to validate conclusively. Despite this limitation, the application of spatially distributed models to investigate relationships between discharge and reach‐scale form and process variables appears to have considerable potential. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Critical discharge for entrainment of poorly sorted gravel

Entrainment criteria for gravel-sized particles on river beds are usually defined in terms of shear stress, but some workers have proposed that critical-discharge relationships are more reliable and more convenient. The critical shear stress in poorly sorted gravels is known from recent work to depend much more on relative than absolute grain size. It is shown that this effect can be included in a semi-theoretical equation for the critical unit discharge to move individual grain sizes in a poorly sorted bed. Comparisons with published data on critical discharges in a variety of rivers show that both the sensitivity of critical discharge to grain size, and the absolute levels of critical discharge, are predicted quite well. However, any prediction of critical discharge is sensitive to the assumptions made, first about flow resistance and secondly about the critical stress to move average-sized particles.     

Late Holocene flood magnitudes in the Lower Rhine river valley and upper delta resolved by a two-dimensional hydraulic modelling approach

Palaeoflood hydraulic modelling is essential for quantifying ‘millennial flood’ events not covered in the instrumental record. Palaeoflood modelling research has largely focused on one-dimensional analysis for geomorphologically stable fluvial settings because two-dimensional analysis for dynamic alluvial settings is time consuming and requires a detailed representation of the past landscape. In this study, we make the step to spatially continuous palaeoflood modelling for a large and dynamic lowland area. We applied advanced hydraulic model simulations (1D–2D coupled set-up in HEC-RAS with 950 channel sections and 108 × 10³ floodplain grid cells) to quantify the extent and magnitude of past floods in the Lower Rhine river valley and upper delta. As input, we used a high-resolution terrain reconstruction (palaeo-DEM) of the area in early mediaeval times, complemented with hydraulic roughness values. After conducting a series of model runs with increasing discharge magnitudes at the upstream boundary, we compared the simulated flood water levels with an inventory of exceeded and non-exceeded elevations extracted from various geological, archaeological and historical sources. This comparison demonstrated a Lower Rhine millennial flood magnitude of approximately 14,000 m³/s for the Late Holocene period before late mediaeval times. This value exceeds the largest measured discharges in the instrumental record, but not the design discharges currently accounted for in flood risk management.