Effects of surface drag on upper-level frontogenesis within a developing baroclinic wave

This paper investigates the effects of surface drag on upper-level front with a three-dimensional nonhydrostatic mesoscale numerical model (MM5). To this end, a new and simple potential vorticity intrusion (PVI) index is proposed to quantitatively describe the extent and path that surface drag affects upper-level front. From a PV perspective, the formation of the upper-level front is illustrated as the tropopause folding happens from the stratosphere. The PVI index shows a good correlation with the minimum surface pressure, and tends to increase with the deepening of the surface cyclone and upper-level front. The surface drag acts to damp and delay the development of upper-level front, which could reduce the growth rate of the PVI index. However, the damping presents different effects in different development stages. It is the most significant during the rapid development stage of the surface cyclone. Compared with no surface drag cases, the tropopause is less inclined to intrude into the troposphere due to the surface drag. Positive feedback between the surface cyclone and upper-level front could accelerate the development of the frontal system.     

A Climatology of Tropopause Folds by Global Analyses

Summary A global ECMWF data set comprising ten years of daily routine T63 analyses is employed for the derivation of regional and temporal tropopause fold statistics. Due to the small scale of folds relative to grid resolution it was found to be convenient to identify them by joint occurrences of potential vorticity maxima and upper tropospheric Q-vector divergences as indicators. The applicability of the proposed method is shown by diagnostic studies of episodic mesoscale model simulations, with 40–50 km resolution as a basis for reference and comparison with the global data set. Tropopause folds are a frequent and rather uniformly occurring phenomenon of the extratropics pole-ward of 30° latitude. On the global scale, and based on daily counting, there are about 11 000 tropopause fold days per year. In order to account for the different folding depth and intensity a four step classification is proposed to define a tropopause fold activity by weighted sums, in terms of four intensity classes. Tropopause fold activity in the Northern Hemisphere is nearly twice as high and less homogeneously distributed as in the Southern Hemisphere, where only 62% of the tropopause fold frequency is estimated. The frequency of tropopause folds is significantly smaller in the summer than in the other seasons. Received September 10, 1996 Revised June 24, 1997     

A CASE STUDY OF FRONTAL CYCLOGENESIS AND ITS SENSITIVITY TO COASTAL INITIAL CONDITIONS*

In this study,the predictability and physical processes leading to the rapid frontal cyclogenesis,that took place in the east coast of the U.S.during 3-4 October 1987,are examined using a nestedgrid.mesoscale model with a fine-mesh grid size of 25km.It is shown that the model reproduces reasonably well the cyclogenesis in a coastal baroclinic zone.its subsequent deepening and movement as well as the pertinent precipitation.It is found that the frontal cyclogenesis occurs in a favorable large-scale environment with pronounced thermal advection in the lower troposphere and marked potential vorticity(PV) concentration aloft associated with the tropopause depression.The transport of warm and moist air from the marine boundary layer by the low-level in-shore flow provides the necessary energy source for the observed heavy precipitation and a variety of weather phenomena reported in the cold sector.Several 24-h sensitivity simulations are performed to examine the relative importance of diabatic heating,adiabatic dynamics and various initial conditions in the frontal cyclogenesis.It is found that latent heat release,even though quite intense,accounts for only 25% of the cyclone's total deepening in this case:the weak impact seems due to the occurrence of latent heating in the cold sector and the upward lifting of the dynamical tropopause by diabatic updrafts.Vorticity budgets show that the lowlevel thermal advection dominates the incipient stage,whereas the vorticity advection determines the rapid deepening rate at the mature stage.The results reveal that the predictability of the present storm is closely related to the vertical coupling between the surface cyclone and the upper-level PV core,which is in turn determined by initial offshore perturbations in the lower troposphere.     

Numerical analysis of the influence of jets,fronts, and mountains on alpine lee cyclogenesis: More cases from the ALPEX SOP

Summary In a recently published work it was shown that Alpine cyclone development depends on a short wave trough upstream of the Alps, the presence of an upper-level jet streak in this trough, and a low-level front interacting with the mountain barrier. Specifically, by modifying the strength of the upper baroclinic zone (potential vorticity) or by decreasing the strength of the low-level baroclinic zone impinging on the Alps in an initial field, the intensity of the resulting numerically predicted cyclogenesis could be modulated. The major finding of the work was that the ALPEX cyclones reacted differently to upper-level and lower-level modification, providing a basis for broadly classifying storms: that is, dependence on upper-level processes and on low-level processes.The present work extends this study by considering additional cyclones that occurred during the ALPEX Special Observing Period (SOP), and describes the influence of upper-level and lower-level processes on each. An index (I) discussed in the previous paper is examined in terms of its relative value from case to case, and in terms of its value in a time-dependent sense during the lifetime of the storm. The results show that the most powerful lee cyclones depended more on the strength of the upper-level jet or potential vorticity than on the strength of the low-level front of baroclinic zone. In most cases the time evolution ofI showed the influence of the upper-level jet to be important during the early phase of development. The front is increasingly important in midlife as intensification takes place, and the jet is increasingly important during late life. These conclusions were reached during the earlier study but are supported by the additional SOP cyclone cases.Cyclone steering flow and the impinging of the storm on the Alps had a great impact on defining its character: storms with NW-N trajectories were heavily dependent on low level frontal strength and WSW-WNW trajectories were dominated by effects of the upper level jet.With 16 Figures     

寒潮期间高空波动与东亚急流的相互作用

本文分析了东亚寒潮爆发过程中,高空波动和高空急流的相互作用,得出如下结果:(1)高空波动的动量和热通量输送,使高空急流迅速加速并同时导致急流入口区质量环流的加强.(2)质量环流引起中高纬度对流层顶下沉并使高空锋区加强.(3)对流层顶下沉和高空锋区的加强促使平流层下层的气流沿对流层顶折叠处下伸进入对流层,造成对流层中、上部层结及位涡分布的改变.(4)位涡分布的改变制约了斜压波发展的能量源,致使高空波动减弱.     

西风带高空槽对登陆我国变性热带气旋的影响及其机理研究

应用日本气象厅1979~2008年的热带气旋资料以及日本25年 (JRA-25) 再分析资料, 本文首先对登陆我国变性加强和变性减弱的两类热带气旋进行了合成对比分析, 发现热带气旋变性后的强度变化与相应的西风带高空槽的强弱有很好的对应关系。然后, 我们选取了2004年登陆我国的热带气旋Haima为研究对象, 通过中尺度模式模拟再现了其登陆后变性演变过程, 采用片段位涡反演方法改变了模式初始高空槽的强度, 研究了高空槽强度的变化对Haima变性过程的影响。研究表明: (1) 高空槽加强 (减弱) 后, Haima移速明显加快 (减慢), 此外深 (浅) 槽对应的Haima变性加强过程中心气压降幅较大 (小); (2) 不同强度的高空槽与Haima相互作用的过程中, 深槽对应的高空急流范围较大, 强度更强, 相应的高空强辐散有利于Haima明显的再发展; (3) 另外深槽对应着较强的高层正位涡带, 正位涡向下伸展诱发低层Haima正位涡明显增长, 从而导致低层锋区的强烈发展和低层气旋的明显加强。     

The role of dynamic and diabatic processes in the generation of cut-off lows over Northwest Africa

Summary The present observational study addresses the role of dynamic and diabatic processes leading to the generation of four deep upper-level troughs/cut-offs, involved in two extreme precipitation episodes over West Africa during the cool season. The elongated potential vorticity (PV) streamers associated with the observed troughs form as a result of an equatorward transport of high-PV air downstream of a large ridge over the central North Atlantic. Strong deformation along the eastern side of the ridge leads to a thinning of the PV streamers. In some situations the tips of the streamers break up and form distinct and long-lived stationary cut-offs near West Africa, in particular if the presence of another PV ridge downstream allows a complete isolation from the midlatitude westerlies. In other situations a prior anticyclonic wave-breaking event over Europe leads to an advection of high-PV towards the Iberian Peninsula that merges with the streamer and impedes a complete cut-off. The observations presented here suggest that the rapid amplification of the PV ridges over the North Atlantic and thus the subsequent streamer formation are related to upstream latent heating through non-conservative diabatic reduction of upper-level PV and through the strong divergent outflow near the tropopause that support large negative isentropic PV advection. The intense latent heat release is promoted by cyclo- and frontogenesis, and the transport of warm, moist air by a low-level jet ahead of the surface cold front (often called a warm conveyor belt; WCB). Diabatic PV tendencies are highest where the WCB rises over the surface warm front to the northeast or east of the cyclone centre. In most cases the distinct heating occurs in connection with a strong upper-level jet and a rapid deepening of the involved surface cyclone. More quantitative dynamical and statistical studies of the suggested relation are needed to better understand the relative contributions of single factors to the large and synoptic scale evolution that leads to PV streamers/cut-offs near West Africa.     

2014年11月上旬西北太平洋一次极端强度爆发气旋的数值模拟和分片位涡反演分析

基于NCEP 6 h一次,0.5°（纬度）×0.5°（经度）水平分辨率的GFS（Global Forecasting System）再分析数据,利用数值模式WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）,对2014年11月上旬西北太平洋一次极端强度的爆发气旋事件进行了模拟。在成功复制爆发气旋主要特征的基础上,较详细的分析了本次爆发气旋快速发展的有利环境条件,并利用分片位涡反演的方法,对此次爆发气旋的快速发展过程进行了研究,主要结论如下:（1）本次爆发气旋的爆发性发展阶段维持了约27 h,其最大加深率约为3.98 Bergeron（气旋加深率单位）,最低中心气压约为919.2 hPa。（2）爆发气旋的快速发展与对流层高层高空急流对热量的输送,对流层中层西风带短波槽槽前暖平流和正涡度平流的有利准地转强迫,以及对流层低层暖锋伴随的暖平流过程密切相关。（3）分片位涡反演的结果表明,对流层顶皱褶对应的平流层大值位涡下传和降水凝结潜热过程造成的正位涡异常是本次爆发气旋快速发展的主导因子,而对流层低层的斜压过程贡献相对较小。在气旋爆发期的前期和强盛期,降水凝结潜热释放是爆发气旋发展的最重要因子,而在爆发期后期,随着降水的减弱和爆发气旋的东北向移动,对流层顶皱褶作用所造成的正位涡异常成为维持气旋快速发展的最有利因子。     

Development mechanisms of an explosive cyclone over East Sea on 3–4 April 2012

The development mechanisms of the explosive cyclone that occurred during 3–4 April 2012 over East Sea (Sea of Japan) are examined through numerical simulation and sensitivity experiments using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model. The characteristics of this explosive cyclone are different from typical cyclonic features observed in this region, including its intensity, deepening rate, and formation time. Numerical simulation, reanalysis data, upper and surface weather charts, and satellite data indicate that the strong baroclinic instability and temperature advection associated with upper-level cut-off low and the interaction of potential vorticity (PV) anomalies between the lower- and upper-level are essential to explosive cyclogenesis.The sensitivity experiments of the explosive cyclone show that latent heat release (LHR) is an important factor in explosive cyclogenesis. The intensification, extent, and movement speed of the cyclone are amplified by LHR as well as the formation of an upper-level cut-off low. The role of LHR is primary important in the generation and evolution of the cyclone. Especially, the LHR contributes to roughly 50% of decrease in sea level pressure (SLP) and 50% of the central cyclone’s low-level PV generation in initial stage. During a 48-h simulation, the contributions of the LHR, surface heat flux, and their interaction on the decrease of SLP of the cyclone are found to be 40.6, −8.2, and 10.5%, respectively. These results reveal that the explosive cyclone has larger deepening rates than OJ cyclones, and develops with a large amount of LHR near the cyclone center.     

从涡度、位涡、到平流层干侵入——位涡问题的缘起、应用及其歧途

由于从等熵位涡分析引申出来的平流层干侵入（以下简称干侵入）概念造成了当前天气预报思路中一些混乱和违背天气学常识的看法,文中回顾了天气预报原理从着眼气压变化到着眼涡度变化的发展历史和位涡问题的缘起。进而根据位涡的定义、数学表达式、物理意义,并结合实例的计算结果指出,位涡的大小主要取决于位温的垂直梯度;等熵面上的位涡分布形势实质是对流层顶高度的分布,因此可以间接反映极地气团、锋、高空槽和高空急流的形势。轨迹计算和数值预报都证明,低空的高位涡异常是地面气旋强烈加深和潜热反馈的结果,而不是干侵入的结果。指出位涡的守恒性不能替代斜压扰动发展的动力学机理;干侵入的错误概念来源于对位涡守恒性的绝对化和简单的推断,并犯了流体力学原理上混淆流线和轨迹两个不同概念的错误。     

台风Matsa(2005)和Wipha(2007)变性过程对比分析

利用日本气象厅热带气旋年鉴资料和JRA-25再分析资料,对0509号台风Matsa和0712号台风Wipha变性过程进行了对比分析。结果表明,台风Matsa和Wipha均是在我国登陆后转向东北方向运动过程中发生变性,但Matsa嵌入中纬度高空锋区,变性为温带气旋后有再加强过程,而Wipha仅外围环流与锋区接触,变性为温带气旋后无再加强过程。通过等熵面位涡分析进一步表明,Matsa变性加强表现为高层正位涡与低层暖平流的耦合,以及高层正位涡下传至中低层;Wipha的变性过程中,高层正位涡并未与低层暖平流耦合,高层正位涡无明显的下传。     

EFFECTS OF TROPOPAUSE AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY ON FRONTOGENESIS

A two-dimensional,semi-geostrophic numerical model incorporating the tropopause andstratosphere is used to investigate the effects of a positive potential vorticity anomaly and latentheat release on the frontogenetic process and the structure of the resulting frontal zone.It isdemonstrated that(1)the inclusion of tropopause and stratosphere significantly changes the frontalstructure only in the upper levels;(2)a clearly defined quasi-equivalent barotropic structure and aregion of upward motion of finite width appear when a positive potential vorticity anomaly exists onthe warm side of the maximum baroclinity in the lower troposphere,especially when it is locatedon the south edge of the baroclinic zone;(3)the above mentioned structure deteriorates as thefrontogenesis proceeds in a dry atmosphere but can be maintained in a moist frontogenetic processwith condensational heating;(4)the combination of a positive potential vorticity anomaly and thelatent heat release is able to accelerate the frontogenesis significantly with the time needed to forman intense frontal zone reduced to less than 15 h.The results have significant theoreticalimportance in understanding the complex nature of frontal structure and frontogenesis,especiallyin understanding the dynamic structure of the subtropical frontal zone observed during earlysummer over East Asia.     

A deep stratospheric intrusion event down to the earth’s surface of the megacity of Athens

This case study investigates a stratospheric intrusion event down to the earth’s surface (near sea-level pressure) of the greater area of Athens (23.43°E 37.58°N), which occurred on 9 October 2003 and caused a remarkable increase in surface ozone concentrations not related to photochemical production. This event is among the rare case studies investigating, on the one hand, a deep stratospheric intrusion down to the earth’s surface at near sea-level pressure and, on the other, an event affecting the near surface ozone of a megacity such as Athens. The synoptic situation is described by a deep upper lever trough at 300 and 500 hPa extending over Greece, which is related to a deep tropopause fold as revealed by vertical cross sections of potential vorticity, relative humidity, divergence and vertical velocity. The analysis of potential vorticity at several isentropic levels indicates a hook-shaped streamer of high PV values (greater than 4 pvu at the 315 K isentropic level) over southeast Europe, which coincides with a streamer of dry air as observed from satellite images of water vapor. The aforementioned structure characterizes a textbook case study of stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART was used to calculate the trajectories of air particles reaching the receptor site and the fraction of particles with stratospheric origin. It reveals an important direct stratospheric impact within 1 day related to the tropopause fold described in this study with the fraction of stratospheric particles reaching maximum values of 1.9 and 4.5% for threshold values of the dynamical tropopause 2 and 1.5 pvu, respectively. Furthermore, a larger indirect aged stratospheric contribution is also revealed 4 to 5 days prior to the release, related to stratospheric intrusion events at the western Atlantic Ocean, reaching maximum values of 2.5 and 6.9% of particles crossing the 2 and 1.5 pvu potential vorticity surfaces, respectively.     

EFFECTS OF TROPOPAUSE AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY ON FRONTOGENESIS*

A two-dimensional,semi-geostrophic numerical model incorporating the tropopause and stratosphere is used to investigate the effects of a positive potential vorticity anomaly and latent heat release on the frontogenetic process and the structure of the resulting frontal zone.It is demonstrated that(1) the inclusion of tropopause and stratosphere significantly changes the frontal structure only in the upper levels;(2) a clearly defined quasi-equivalent barotropic structure and a region of upward motion of finite width appear when a positive potential vorticity anomaly exists on the warm side of the maximum baroclinity in the lower troposphere,especially when it is located on the south edge of the baroclinic zone;(3) the above mentioned structure deteriorates as the frontogenesis proceeds in a dry atmosphere but can be maintained in a moist frontogenetic process with condensational heating;(4) the combination of a positive potential vorticity anomaly and the latent heat release is able to accelerate the frontogenesis significantly with the time needed to form an intense frontal zone reduced to less than 15 h.The results have significant theoretical importance in understanding the complex nature of frontal structure and frontogenesis,especially in understanding the dynamic structure of the subtropical frontal zone observed during early summer over East Asia.     

对流层顶折叠检测新方法及其在中纬度 灾害性天气预报中的应用

对流层顶折叠是中纬度地区对流层上层—平流层下层区域(简称UT/LS)内的一个重要的大气现象,它与气旋生、暴雨强对流触发以及降水增幅密切相关。由于这些天气条件下的大气状况异常复杂,因此目前国际上普遍采用的基于干大气条件的对流层顶折叠检测方法存在很大局限性。本文在借鉴已有的卫星资料和数值预报相结合的模式识别法的基础上,通过统计分析的方法建立了高层大气水汽与广义湿位涡、臭氧浓度的关系以及对流层顶折叠与高空急流的位置关系,同时考虑了动力对流层顶高度在判识过程中的辅助作用,建立了一套基于FY-2E静止气象卫星遥感数据的,适用于与暴雨强对流有关的对流层顶折叠动态监测新方法。在利用FY-3A和FY-3B反演的臭氧总量、臭氧垂直廓线以及ECMWF Interim资料计算的位涡等资料对算法进行精度验证的基础上,将该方法在2012年7月21日北京特大暴雨天气过程以及2013年5月14~17日华南大暴雨天气过程的监测和分析上进行了应用,并取得了较好的效果。从应用效果看,本文提出的这种对流层顶折叠识别方法是合理可行的,并具有一定的应用价值,可为中纬度地区暴雨强对流天气的监测和预警提供参考指标。     

Cross-Tropopause Mass Exchange Associated with a Tropopause Fold Event over the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau

A springtime tropopause fold event, found to be related to a cold trough intrusion from the north, was detected in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) based on various observations. A nested high-resolution mesoscale model was employed to investigate the effect of orography on the stratosphere-troposphere exchange. The model was found to be able to capture plausible tropopause fold properties. The propagation of the tropopause fold changed significantly when the terrain height in the model was altered. Ho...     

沙尘暴过程中沙尘对流层-平流层输送的数值模拟初步分析

在初步明确东亚沙尘气溶胶对流层-平流层输送监测事实的基础上,利用观测资料、NCEP再分析资料以及基于中尺度天气模式MM5的数值模拟方法,对一次蒙古气旋沙尘暴过程中沙尘对流层-平流层输送问题进行了初步分析.结果表明:斜压不稳定是本次蒙古气旋发展的主要强迫要素,伴随气旋发展成熟,高空切断低涡的形成引导高空急流下落并诱发对流层顶折叠和高空位涡下传.对流层顶折叠区呈漏斗状,底部达500 hPa左右.高空急流产生近似垂直的下落,并在高空切断低涡的南侧和东侧达到最强.在对流层顶折叠区周边的300-500 hPa,上升气流与低涡区偏西、偏南、偏东气流叠加,或水平横穿折叠的对流层顶,或斜升并准垂直地穿过下落的对流层顶到达平流层,且随时间的推移,空气质点能够进一步抵达平流层中部(100 hPa).轨迹分析表明,沙尘天气区对流层低层的空气质点在气旋涡旋上升气流的驱动下呈气旋式盘旋上升,并在对流层高层形成分支,一支穿过对流层顶到达平流层,并在平流层向下游进行反气旋式螺旋运动,另一支则留在对流层高层并向下游进行准水平的气旋式螺旋运动.在高空位涡下传过程中,主要产生平流层到对流层的净输送;高空位涡停止下传之后则出现对流层到平流层的净输送,且强度随时间呈指数型增长.这一特征有利于形成更强的沙尘对流层平流层输送.     

一次华南双雨带暴雨中的位涡演变与雨带间的相互作用

利用实况资料和WRF中尺度数值模式对2008年6月12日18时—14日00时的华南双雨带暴雨过程进行了数值模拟与诊断分析。结果表明:随着锋面的南压,在锋面的西南方向(广西沿海)生成一低涡,该低涡作为位涡源在中高层表现稳定,分别为锋面雨带(北雨带)与暖区雨带(南雨带)提供正位涡。南雨带对北雨带的作用主要体现在中层(112~114°E附近),南雨带中有位涡的大值向北输送,其输送过程导致两条雨带在该处相连,而在115°E以东的南雨带则无明显的输送过程。同时,北部高空槽中也有大值位涡向北雨带输送,以维持北雨带。研究还发现,本次过程中暖区暴雨与锋面暴雨雨带的结构差异明显,锋面雨带的结构与传统雨带的结构比较一致;有利于暖区暴雨降水的形势主要表现在中高层。RIP轨迹模式的结果也表明,质点在运动过程中位涡的输送源是位于广西沿海的低涡,可见该位涡源对双雨带形成有重要的作用。     

一次变性台风再增强过程的敏感性试验

采用位涡反演技术与数值模拟相结合的方法,通过初值敏感性试验和物理量场的诊断分析,对台风变性后再度增强的影响因子和物理机制进行了深入的分析和研究。结果表明:台风低压由变性减弱转为发展增强主要是由于台风低压环流与西风带斜压锋区之间的相互作用所造成的,随着高空冷涡低槽的加深南下和台风低压的继续北上,两个系统之间的距离逐渐减小,西风带高空槽与台风低压之间相互作用的正反馈机制逐步成为台风变性后强烈加深发展的主要原因。     

一次台风变性并入东北冷涡过程的动力诊断分析

台风北移变性并入东北冷涡是造成东北地区夏季大范围暴雨的主要形式之一, 但其中的热动力结构变化特征及其物理机制尚不清晰。本文利用美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)的再分析资料对一次台风变性并入东北冷涡过程进行动力诊断分析, 分析结果显示:冷涡冷空气的不断侵入以及台风移动形成的相对冷平流使得台风暖心结构消亡, 其低层低压辐合和高层高压辐散结构消失, 变性并入东北冷涡后气旋整层偏冷, 低层出现冷中心。台风变性并入东北冷涡过程中, 冷涡中心附近高空急流南侧的反气旋切变抑制气旋直接往高空发展, 而急流轴左侧的热动力分布特征有利于垂直涡度的发展, 变性后的气旋环流向冷涡的移近有利于急流轴维持倾斜, 从而促进气旋向高空冷涡倾斜发展。同时, 冷空气在气旋低层附近堆积导致等假相当位温线发生倾斜, 造成垂直涡度在气旋中层倾斜发展。台风变性并入东北冷涡后, 高空冷涡槽底的正垂直涡度平流促进气旋由中层直接向高层发展, 而高空冷涡槽底急流促进正垂直涡度平流的维持。气旋高空环流的发展反过来削弱了东北冷涡的高层环流, 导致高空冷涡中心出现北撤。