Mapping thermal comfort in Iran based on geostatistical methods and bioclimatic indices

The cognition of thermal comfort plays a pivotal role in human life and activities. Recognizing thermal comfort based on climatic parameters is substantially significant. The main objective of the present study is to map thermal comfort using statistics from 43 meteorological stations, from 1970 to 2013. Initially, according to temperature and relative humidity, annual and seasonal thermal comfort conditions were mapped, and later bioclimatic human thermal comfort conditions in line with spatial factors were zoned based on bioclimatic indexes of Temperature Humidity Index (THI), effective temperature (ET) and Relative Strain Index (RSI). Among geostatistical methods, empirical Bayesian kriging (EBK) method with less RSME is more efficient. The annual distribution of temperature changes according to spatial factors of rugged topography and elevation, and latitude affects relative humidity. Thermal comfort in the northern and western half of Iran is higher than the southern and eastern areas of the country. Spatial factors of latitude and altitude reduce bioclimatic uniformity and create small areas with or without thermal comfort conditions. Bioclimatic indicators based on air temperature and relative humidity range of bioclimatic zones show. The results of ET and THI divide the whole country into six zones, from lack of thermal comfort to having thermal comfort conditions. Areas of southern strip as well as central and southeastern parts of the country do not have any human thermal comfort conditions in most of the year.     

基于栅格尺度的阿勒泰地区旅游气候舒适度评价

气候的舒适度是游客选择旅游目的地的重要影响因素之一,利用1960-2013年近54 a的研究区气象统计资料,结合地理信息系统(GIS)空间分析方法,并考虑气温垂直递减规律这一因素,分析了阿勒泰地区500 m×500 m分辨率栅格尺度的逐月温湿指数、风效指数、着衣指数及综合舒适指数,通过对4个指数所反映的舒适度和舒适期进行对比分析,发现综合舒适指数可从客观角度反映气候因素对人体感觉的综合影响,能达到较为精准的评估效果.研究表明:阿勒泰旅游气候舒适度变化受当地地形和季节变化的影响较大,旅游舒适度季节变化明显,适宜户外旅游的舒适期短暂.季节变化中,冬季不适宜开展户外旅游活动;春季阿尔泰山山区气候舒适度不舒适,山区以南和西南萨吾尔山以北舒适度较不舒适;夏季分布在额尔齐斯河以北的山麓和山间河谷地区,以及青河县中部和南部,富蕴县南部地区人体感觉舒适,占全区总面积的39.62%,其余大部分区域较舒适;秋季分布在哈巴河县、布尔津县、阿勒泰市南部及福海县中部和南部区域感觉较舒适,占全区总面积的36.79%.阿勒泰地区旅游舒适期为1~5个月,旅游资源的空间分布契合该地区旅游舒适期的区域空间分布,利于本地区进行旅游开发和旅游活动.     

Biogeographic, ecological and stratigraphic relationships of the Miocene brown coal floras, Latrobe Valley, Victoria, Australia

Palaeobotanical studies of the brown coal deposits of the Latrobe Valley have contributed significantly towards an understanding of the age of the deposits, existing climatic conditions and detailed depositional environments. This paper re-assesses some past reconstructions for the Early to Mid Miocene coals using recent information on plant distributions and their bioclimatic significance and on a marine incursion model for coal lithotype formation.The brown coal flora is composed overwhelmingly of rainforest taxa that presently cover a range of different environments within the Australasian region. The application of a bioclimatic prediction model to these taxa allows the construction of consistent and quantitative estimates of climates during coal-forming phases. It is considered that rainfall in the area was more than twice the 850 mm received today, with significant seasonal variation. The mean annual temperature estimate of about 19°C, indicating a mesothermal or subtropical environment, is some 2–5C higher than present and higher than previous estimates. It does, however, correspond with sea-surface temperature estimates for the Southern Ocean at this time.The original model of lithotype formation, which suggests that lithotypes conform to a successional sequence from open water in the lightest coloured lithotypes to raised bog in the darkest lithotypes, is considered to be inconsistent with the evidence for lightening upwards sequences within the coals, a central feature of the proposed marine incursion model of coal formation. The two models are reconciled to some degree by a reinterpretation of the palaeobotanical data and by the postulation of climatic rather than autogenic successional control over lithotype formation.     

京津冀地区城市人居环境气候舒适性评价

京津冀地区城市聚集,目前在京津冀协同发展规划下,随着都市圈产业结构调整,各城市面临大量人口流动迁移,人居环境气候舒适性将影响人口重布。以京津冀地区13个主要城市作为研究对象,根据1951-2013年的气候资料,采用温湿指数THI和风效指数K,综合评价各城市气候舒适度,并加以对比分析。结果表明：近63 a来,本区13个城市人居气候环境舒适性较高;区内各城市气候舒适性分布特点表现为由东北向西南,舒适性呈现降低趋势,河北省内秦皇岛、唐山、廊坊、邯郸等多个城市气候舒适性均高于北京天津两大城市。以全年气候舒适程度由高到低排序：秦皇岛>唐山>廊坊、邯郸、北京 > 承德 > 张家口 > 石家庄、邢台、保定、衡水 > 沧州、天津。这将成为引导人口分流的有利因素,驱动人口高度密集区进行有序合理疏散,缓解北京天津的大城市病问题。     

Assessment of bioclimatic comfort conditions based on Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) using the RayMan Model in Iran

In this study thermal comfort conditions are analyzed to determine possible thermal perceptions during different months in Iran through the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET). The monthly PET values produced using the RayMan Model ranged from ?7.6°C to 46.8°C. Over the winter months the thermal comfort condition (18–23°C) were concentrated in southern coastal areas along the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea. Most of the country experienced comfort conditions during the spring months, in particular in April, while during the summer months of July and August no thermal comfort conditions were observed. In November coastal areas of the Caspian Sea had the same physiological stress level of thermal comfort as April. The map produced showing mean annual PET conditions demonstrated the greatest spatial distribution of comfortable levels in the elevation range from 1000 to 2000 meter a.s.l., with annual temperatures of 12–20°C and annual precipitation of under 200 mm. The statistical relationship between PET conditions and each controlling parameter revealed a significant correlation in areas above 2000 meter, annual temperature over 20°C and annual precipitation of 200–400 mm with a correlation coefficient (R ²) of 0.91, 0.97 and 0.96, respectively.     

Simulation of global warming effect on outdoor thermal comfort conditions

In the coming decades, global warming and increase in temperature, in different regions of the world, may change indoor and outdoor thermal comfort conditions and human health. The aim of this research was to study the effects of global warming on thermal comfort conditions in indoor ambiences in Iran. To study the increase in temperature, model for assessment of greenhouse-gas induced climate change scenario generator compound model has been used together with four scenarios and to estimate thermal comfort conditions, adaptive model of the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-conditioning Engineers has been used. In this study, Iran was divided into 30 zones, outdoor conditions were obtained using meteorological data of 80 climatological stations and changes in neutral comfort conditions in 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 were predicted. In accordance with each scenario, findings from this study showed that temperature in the 30 zones will increase by 2100 to between 3.4 °C and 5.6 °C. In the coming decades and in the 30 studied zones, neutral comfort temperature will increase and be higher and more intense in the central and desert zones of Iran. The low increase in this temperature will be connected to the coastal areas of the Caspian and Oman Sea in southeast Iran. This increase in temperature will be followed by a change in thermal comfort and indoor energy consumption from 8.6 % to 13.1 % in air conditioning systems. As a result, passive methods as thermal inertia are proposed as a possible solution.     

Estimating palaeo-water depth from the physical rock record

Palaeo-water depth and its change with time is a key factor in environmental analysis and in sedimentology in general. The literature published on this topic and on related subjects, however, is substantial albeit scattered within and between different communities (geologists, oceanographers, engineers, physicists etc.). Here I focus on proxies for palaeo-bathymetry as obtained from the physical rock record. Floral, faunal and chemical evidence for palaeo-water depth, being equally important, must be dealt with elsewhere. An assessment of the main depth-related parameters in actualistic settings is presented and their applicability to the fossil sedimentary record discussed. The outcome reveals the full complexity of this topic. There is, for example, no such thing as an average wave-base depth applicable to a wide range of fossil case settings. This because wave and current climates in general, and particularly so in neritic and coastal settings, are intriguingly complex. Furthermore, observations from modern oceans are not a priori applicable to fossil ones. Acknowledging these problems and limitations, critically evaluated quantitative proposals for depth indicative facies and features in the sedimentary record are presented and error bars discussed.     

冰川/积雪-大气相互作用研究进展

冰川和积雪是冰冻圈的重要组成部分,在全球或区域气候系统中起着极其重要的作用.开展冰川/积雪-大气相互作用研究,是研究冰冻圈物理过程及其对气候系统反馈作用的必然需求,也是研究冰川/积雪对气候变化响应的有效手段,同时还可为全球(区域)气候和水文模式提供冰川/积雪面的地表特征参数.近一个世纪以来,在冰川/积雪面辐射特征、能量通量计算方法和平衡特征等方面开展了许多观测试验和理论研究,并取得了卓有成效的研究结果.但是在准确获取辐射通量、研发普适性较强的反照率参数化方案、复杂地形条件下能量通量的计算,以及发展分布式能量平衡模式等方面尚存在许多不确定性,仍面临许多技术难点,也是未来的研究重点.     

Changes in North Sea storm surge conditions for four transient future climate realizations

Storm surges in the North Sea are one of the threats for coastal infrastructure and human safety. Under an anthropogenic climate change, the threat of extreme storm surges may be enlarged due to changes in the wind climate. Possible future storm surge climates based on transient simulations (1961–2100) are investigated with a hydrodynamical model for the North Sea. The climate change scenarios are based on regionalized meteorological conditions with the regional climate model CCLM which is forced by AR4 climate simulations with the general circulation model ECHAM5/MPIOM under two IPCC emission scenarios (SRES A1B and B1) and two initial conditions. Possible sea level rise in the North Sea is not taken into account. The analysis of future wind-induced changes of the water levels is focused on extreme values. Special emphasis is given to the southeastern North Sea (German Bight). Comparing the 30-year averages of the annual 99 percentiles of the wind-induced water levels between the four climate realizations and the respective control climates, a small tendency toward an increase is inferred for all climate change realizations toward the end of the twenty-first century. Concerning the German Bight, the climate change signals are higher for the North Frisian coastal areas than for the East Frisian ones. This is consistent with an increase in frequency of strong westerly winds. Considering the whole time series (1961–2100) for selected areas, this tendency is superimposed with strong decadal fluctuations. It is found that uncertainties are related not only to the used models and emission scenarios but also to the initial conditions pointing to the internal natural variability.     

The effects of elevation on thermal bioclimatic conditions in Uludağ (Turkey)

This study compares the thermal bioclimatic conditions recorded at Bursa (100 m) and Uluda? (1878 m) meteorological stations at 7:00, 14:00 and 21:00 LST (local standard time) between 1975 and 2006, by using the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET), which is calculated from meteorological parameters. The effects of elevation-dependent environmental and atmospheric conditions on thermal perception (i.e., PET) values were analyzed and assessed. The analysis showed that the mean annual difference between PET values in Bursa and Uluda? was 12 ºC. The difference was lower in winter (9 ºC PET) and higher in summer (15 ºC PET). The highest difference between PET values occurred in the afternoon (16 ºC PET) and the lowest difference occurred in the morning (8.4 ºC PET). The differences occur as a result of high altitude and higher surface albedo due to snowfall, which leads to lower PET values and thus to less comfortable thermal conditions. The mean PET values of Bursa and Uluda? decrease 0.67 ºC every 100 m.     

中国南方的红土与红色风化壳

中国南方广泛分布的发育在红土和红色风化壳上的红壤和砖红壤的特征主要是古环境长期作用的结果,与现代土壤发生过程关系不大,因为现代生物-气候条件并不适于红壤化过程的进行。第四纪以来红壤和砖红壤在不同时期所获得的地球化学特征(高三氧化二物和低硅)都是由红土和红色风化壳继承而来。红土和红色风化壳约在第四纪前干热与温湿不断交替的气温条件下形成,第三纪以来华南气候逐渐凉爽,富铝化作用也逐渐变弱,都可从第三纪以来所形成的不同红壤和砖红壤中获得启示。何况当前生物富硅化作用又很明显。     

Campo Cerrado — forest or savanna?

Today it is undisputed that living systems contain information for the interpretation of the developmental history or the recent growth potential of an area. The decoding of this information, important for the research on landscapes, can only be managed by consequent clarification of the chorological, population-genetic and autecological particularities of the organisms in the landscapes (MüLLER 1976, 1977). The importance of this biogeographical concept for the evaluation of our landscapes can be shown using the example of the Campos Cerrados, which are increasingly being considered for exploitation and which were defined either as “forest formations” or “savanna types” from the turn of the century until recent days.     

1961-2010年青海省人体舒适度指数时空分布特征

根据青海省50个气象观测站1961-2010年逐日气象资料, 对人体舒适度指数时空分布特征及其影响因子的权重进行了统计分析. 结果表明: 青海省人体舒适度主要为寒冷、冷、凉、凉爽和舒服等级, 整体呈现冷凉特征, 各区各等级年均日数分布差异较大. 青海省最不舒适的月份是1月份, 其次是12月; 最舒适的月份是7月, 其次是8月、6月. 1961-2010 年青海省人体舒适度指数上升趋势极显著, 与青藏高原气候变化趋势一致. 各区人体舒适度均呈显著上升趋势, 其中, 柴达木地区上升最明显; 春、秋季东部农业区和柴达木地区相似, 环青海湖地区和青南牧区相似, 各区秋季上升趋势均高于春季; 青南牧区各季人体舒适度年际波动幅度较大, 冬季环青海湖地区和青南牧区人体舒适度差异不大. 青海省人体舒适度季节差异明显, 夏季最高, 冬季最低, 春季略高于秋季, 近50 a来四季人体舒适度均呈显著上升趋势, 冬季波动幅度较大.温度(湿度、风速)与人体舒适度指数存在极显著的正(负)相关关系, 温度是影响人体舒适度指数的最主要因子, 风速和湿度主要通过温度影响人体舒适度指数, 且风速的负影响略大于湿度. 东部农业区和柴达木地区风速的负影响较大, 环青海湖地区和青南牧区相对湿度的负影响较大.     

The most problematic variable in the course of human-biometeorological comfort assessment — the mean radiant temperature

This paper gives a review on the topic of the mean radiant temperature T _mrt , the most important parameter influencing outdoor thermal comfort during sunny conditions. T _mrt summarizes all short wave and long wave radiation fluxes reaching the human body, which can be very complex (variable in spatial and also in temporal manner) in urban settings. Thermal comfort researchers and urban planners need easy and sound methodological approaches to assess T _mrt . After the basics of the T _mrt calculation some of the methods suitable for obtaining T _mrt also in urban environments will be presented.. Two of the discussed methods are based on instruments which measure the radiation fluxes integral (globe thermometer, pyranometer-pyrgeometer combination), and three of the methods are based on modelling the radiation environment with PC software (RayMan, ENVI-met and SOLWEIG).     

基于灰色关联度法的可拓理论在霍尔古吐水电站坝址区泥石流危险性评价中的应用

泥石流危险性评价是灾情预测、防灾救灾决策中的重要内容,是国内外灾害科学研究的热点之一。本文以新疆开都河霍尔古吐水电站坝址区群沟泥石流为研究对象,在对泥石流区域地质环境研究的基础上,选取泥石流规模、爆发频率等8个因素作为评价因子,采用灰色关联度确定评价因子权重,运用可拓理论,通过定性和类比的方法对群发泥石流区域进行危险性评价。将评价结果与刘希林提出的单沟泥石流评价结果比较,清水沟与雪莲沟的可拓法评价危险度等级要高于单沟泥石流评价结果,这一结果和现场调查情况相吻合。因此,基于灰色关联度法的可拓理论对霍尔古吐水电站坝址区群发泥石流危险度评价结果合理可靠,进而为坝区泥石流危险性评估、规划防治提供合理的科学依据。     

Water content variations and respective ecosystems of sandy land in China

Soil water conservation is essential to the sustainability of sandy farming. In this paper, long-term observation of soil water, dry soil thickness and soil chemical changes are evaluated at eight locations in sandy soil. This paper subdivides the sandy lands and deserts of China into three climate zones: arid (hyperarid and extremely arid), semiarid, and humid (subhumid and subtropical humid), with respect to the bioclimatic zone, aridity, soil water content, and soil chemical characteristics. The water movement conditions, and chemical variations in each zone are analyzed. The paper also estimates the spatial and temporal correlation function of arid soil thickness and soil moisture. Sandy soils organic matter content, CaCO₃ content, soluble salts content are investigated. Afforestation and selection of tree species in different sandy areas are suggested to regulate sandy land soil moisture. Sandy land in China can be divided into the four sand stabilization regions according to the shifting sand conditions and the techniques advanced: regions I, II, III, and IV. These results have important implications for remote sensing of soil moisture and soil organic carbon, and soil moisture parameterization in climate models.     

Population distribution and standard of living in Iceland

The Vikings and other settlers of Iceland immigrated during the 10th century not only for political reasons but also because they were seeking more spacious lands and thus a better standard of living. They found what they were searching for, and they and their descendants for some hundreds of years did live a relatively prosperous life. Eventually in the 15th century they suffered a series of setbacks. Poor living conditions were nothing unusual for the Icelanders in late medieval Europe, but this coupled with both the cool climate and the lack of timber for housing and heating, and for boat and shipbuilding made their lot an especially hard one. The 18th century was the darkest one in Icelandic history, and those acquainted with the problems doubted that the little nation could survive. But then, beginning in the 19th century and rapidly increasing in the 20th century, the urban evolution came about and brought with it a measure of progress. As a result, most Icelanders now live in towns, with over fifty percent living in Reykjavik and its environs. The effects of rural migration is one problem that persists in spite of the fact that the average income is now similar in most areas.     

海上大气波导研究进展

大气波导是对流层中具有异常大气折射率梯度的大气层,对于评估和预测电磁波传播和海上探测通信系统等具有重要的科学意义和应用价值.以海上发生的大气波导类型为线索总结了与大气波导相关的研究方法.在蒸发波导研究中以相似理论为基础,开发蒸发波导诊断模型为重点,开展区域海域适应性研究;海上悬空波导和表面波导从早期的定性分析到目前精确定量研究过程中,中尺度数值模式逐渐成为极其重要的研究手段,不仅提高了特定天气过程中大气波导模拟预测精度,而且在此基础上开展区域大气波导环境研究,分析其出现规律、气候原因等.针对海上大气波导研究现状,借鉴气象上的手段和技术,开展海上水文气象调查和电波传播实验,结合中尺度数值模式和海气耦合模式,采用同化技术和集合预报等手段,提高海上低空大气波导量化精度.     

斜坡系统可靠性分析研究

:斜坡系统是一个多变的、随机的、具有多种不确定性的复杂系统 ,因此在斜坡稳定性研究中引入可靠性理论意义重大且应用前景广阔。文中从单体斜坡系统和区域斜坡系统两个方面 ,论述了斜坡系统可靠性分析的研究现状和发展趋势。单体斜坡系统可靠性研究的主要方向是 :影响因素与评价模型的进一步研究 ,初步建立可靠指标与安全系数相结合的斜坡稳定性二元指标体系。区域斜坡系统可靠性研究的主要方向是 :利用具有普适意义的可靠性指标 ,结合地理信息系统 (GIS)进行斜坡稳定性研究 ,初步建立风险评价和风险管理的斜坡安全体系     

海洋地质灾害灾情评估进展与方法

对海洋地质灾害进行评估意义重大,但目前对海洋地质灾害灾情评估的研究有待加强。已有研究方法通过建立评估指标体系,运用系统工程理论和层次分析方法,确定灾情等级,为减灾防灾提供依据。灾情评估模型有助于快速地进行灾情评估。本文认为,应该加强对海洋地质灾害的基础性研究工作,包括灾害的成因机制、分布规律、发展趋势、致灾因素、危害程度、预防措施等方面。