Potential Evapotranspiration Characteristic and Its Abrupt Change Across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and Its Surrounding Areas in the Last 50 Years

Daily routine observation data from 274 meteorological stations in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding areas from 1970 to 2017 were utilized to examine the spatial patterns and abrupt changes of potential evapotranspiration with the formula of FAO Penman-Monteith, in consideration of China’s eco-geographical divisions. The results showed that \mathrm{①} annual and seasonal average potential evapotranspiration, except for summer and winter, displayed a distinct spatial pattern in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding areas, with higher values in the north and south but lower values in the middle; the time when monthly potential evapotranspiration reached its maximum or minimum showed clearly zonal differences, namely earlier in the south and later in the north. \mathrm{②} The prevailing mean and trend abrupt changes of potential evapotranspiration were observed in the study area, while there were large differences in the abrupt change time in different regions and seasons. Specifically, the mean abrupt change was dominated by positive mutation, with generally the earliest abrupt change time occurring in spring and the latest appearing in winter; the trend abrupt change pattern was mainly described as the process shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend, the trend change points in year, spring, autumn and winter were postponed gradually from the northeast to the southwest with a delay of about 20, 10, 20 and 5 years, respectively. Comparatively, the abrupt change time of potential evapotranspiration trend in the whole plateau was later than that in the whole buffer zone, with a respective lag of 5, 1, 12, 5 and 4 years. \mathrm{③} Corresponding to the periodic change of potential evapotranspiration, significant evaporation paradox only scattered through the study area during the period before the trend change point (2007), but it was absent afterwards and would not appear in the future. The above findings will provide a scientific basis for further understanding the climate change and eco-hydrological process of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding areas in global warming.     

农田蒸散发量变化规律分析

根据冉庄水资源实验站大型地中蒸渗仪在种植小麦、玉米情况下的农田蒸散发量实测资料，分析了农田蒸散发量的时程及深度变化规律，提出了在实验条件下农田蒸散发量的数值范围。     

Simulation Study of the Climate Change Impact on the Rice and its Adaptability in Ningxia Province

Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia, as the top rice production area of high quality and quantity, has a long history in rice planting. The studies of the effective measures for the rice production replying the climate change were very important for reducing the harm of the future climate change and crop supply safety in Ningxia Province. Based on the coupling of the PRECIS model and the crop model CERES Rice, the effects of climate change on the rice production and growth stage in Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia Province were simulated and evaluated, and the adaptability measures of rice production were studied. The results showed that the CERES Rice model had the preferable simulation capability, and the modified PRECIS model also could preferably simulate the required climate parameter. The crop model simulation results showed that the climate change had some influence on the rice production and growth stage in Yinhuang Irrigation District. The rice production goes down under future climate change scenarios in Ningxia Province. The trend of reduction of 2050s is more apparent than that of 2020s under the same scenarios,but the spatial change trend is similar. The extent and range of reduction of A2 scenario are wider than that of B2 scenario in the same period, but spatial change trend is different. For the change of growth stage, there has no obvious change in the north and the central part of the Yinhuang Irrigation District. The duration in 2050s shortens more obviously than that of 2020s under the same scenario, and the duration under B2 scenario shortens more obviously than that under A2 scenario in the same period. The results of adjusting the sowing date and the rice variety parameter G4 showed that the negative impact of climate change on the rice production can be reduced by sowing date advance in Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia Province. There has obvious difference for the optimal G4 values of different region in Yinhuang Irrigation District, and the rice production can also be effectively upraised by adjusting the rice variety characteristic and cultivating the heat resistant rice varieties. The optimal G4 values can mitigate the damage of climate change on the rice production in Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia Province.     

三江源区蒸散量的时空分布特征

三江源地区位于青海南部,是中国三大主要河流长江、黄河和澜沧江的源头汇水区,是中国海拔最高的天然湿地和面积最大的自然保护区。三江源地区生态环境脆弱,评估地下水蒸散量对该地区水循环和水资源量评价有重要作用,对生态环境保护也具有一定意义。基于中等分辨率的MODIS数据,利用表面能量平衡系统对三江源地区2001—2017年的区域蒸散量进行估算,并采用Sen+Mann-Kendall法分析其连续时间序列内的时空变化趋势,讨论其影响因素。结果表明:研究区蒸散量从2001年到2017年总体呈增长趋势;三个源区多年年平均蒸散量值表现为澜沧江源>黄河源>长江源的变化规律;三江源区超过62.62%的地区蒸散量变化呈显著增长趋势,轻微显著增长地区占28.03%,显著减小地区占比极少;蒸散量的变化主要受气候影响,与气温、降水量呈明显正相关关系,其确定系数分别为0.80、0.89;蒸散量与植被指数及土壤湿度也均呈明显正相关关系。     

1971-2005年西藏主要农区农田蒸散量变化特征及其与环境因子的关系

利用1971—2005年西藏"一江两河"主要农区4个气象站点月平均最高气温、最低气温、降水量、风速、相对湿度、日照时数等资料,应用Penman-Monteith模型计算了农田蒸散量,分析其空间分布、年际和年代际变化特征,并讨论了影响蒸散量变化的气象因子.研究表明:近35a西藏主要农区年蒸散量表现为不同程度的减小趋势,为-16.5～-71.6mm.(10a)-1,以泽当减幅最大;四季蒸散量均呈现为减小趋势,以冬季减幅最明显.土壤水分年亏缺量呈明显的减少趋势,平均每10a减小59.6mm,特别是近25a(1981—2005年)减幅更明显.20世纪70年代至90年代年、季蒸散量均为逐年代减小趋势.90年代与80年代比较,主要农区各季土壤水分亏缺量都有不同程度的减小,尤其是夏季由亏缺转为盈余.日照时数和平均风速的显著下降,以及平均相对湿度的明显增加可能是蒸散量显著下降的主要原因,平均气温日较差的显著减小和降水量的增加在蒸散量减少趋势中也起着重要作用.     

基于包气带水分运移数值模型的黄河三角洲蒸发量研究

蒸发是重要的水循环过程,在野外试验和室内分析的基础上,建立了黄河三角洲地下水浅埋区观测试验场土壤水分运移数值模拟模型,模型中对上边界条件处理采用了考虑气象因素、地表覆盖条件和表层土壤含水量的Penman Wilson公式。利用模型对试验点1999年、2000年、2002年的蒸发量进行了数值模拟计算,计算并分析了裸地、棉花地、芦苇地不同地表植被条件下,地表蒸发量(包括棵间裸地蒸发量和植物蒸腾量)的变化规律。从时间上看,黄河三角洲7、8月是蒸发量较高的时期, 1、2月是蒸发量最低时期,一般日蒸发量在0~8 mm/d。影响地面蒸发的主要因素除气象因素外,还有植被类型和覆盖程度、地下水位埋深等因素。植被覆盖程度越高、地下水位埋深越浅,则蒸发量越大,从而导致裸地蒸发量相对较小,农田年蒸发量稍大,而芦苇地蒸发量最大。研究表明,土壤水分运移模型是估算各种复杂条件下蒸发量的有效工具。     

可持续水资源系统管理研究与展望

依据近些年国际水文水资源学术会议及交流等信息,综述近年来社会可持续发展对水资源系统管理提出的新的挑战及国际上可持续水资源系统管理研究的若干特点等问题,提出了几点认识和建议。     

近35a来黑河干流中游平原区陆面蒸散发的变化研究

利用FAO Penman-Monteith公式计算了黑河流域中游地区农田、草地和荒漠3种不同下垫面条件下的实际蒸散量,分析了1967-2000年近35 a蒸散量的变化规律及季节变化特性,并结合黑河中游甘州(张掖)、临泽、高台和民乐这4个地区的3期遥感影像资料分析了1967、1986、2000年的土地利用变化,最后根据计算的实际蒸散量计算这3种不同下垫面条件下的总蒸散量.结果表明:黑河流域中游平原区陆面蒸散量总体呈现减小的趋势,农田、草地和荒漠3种下垫面条件下的多年平均蒸散量分别为762 mm、285 mm和229 mm;蒸散量的季节变化差异较大,其季节变化在这3种下垫面条件下都表现为夏季实际蒸散量>春季>秋季>冬季,实际蒸散量受季节变化的影响较为明显;同时这4个地区的土地退化较为严重,其中,草地退化较为明显,荒漠面积明显增加,农田面积也有所增加;在1967年4个地区的3种下垫面条件下的总蒸散量为37×10⁸m³,而1986年的总蒸散量为38×10⁸m³,2000年的总蒸散量为39×10⁸m³.     

甘肃黄土高原40a来土壤水分蒸散量变化特征

用Penman公式计算了甘肃黄土高原20世纪60-90年代40 a来的潜在蒸散值,分析了潜在蒸散的时空变化特征并与蒸发皿所测值进行比较.结果表明:甘肃黄土高原潜在蒸散值的分布与纬度关系比较密切,随纬度的升高,潜在蒸散值增多,变化范围为1 600-2 200 mm·a^-1;潜在蒸散值受气温、降水的支配比较大,80年代最小,其次为70、60年代,90年代最大.60-90年代各地潜在蒸散值比实测值高30%-40%,其中夏、秋季潜在蒸散均大于蒸发器所测值,以夏季相差最大,达40%-100%;冬季则小于蒸发器所测值.潜在蒸散量与蒸发器所测值虽在数值上有所差别,但趋势基本一致,蒸发器所测值的峰值变化落后于理论计算值0.5月.90年代以来,各地土壤水分亏缺值增多,植被生长季节,作物水分利用都未及最适宜状态.     

Temporal-spatial Distribution of Suitable Areas for Major Food Crops in China Over 60 Years

Simulating the temporal-spatial distribution of areas suitable for crops is an important part of analyzing the effects of climate change on crop growth, reducing the vulnerability of crop growth, and assessing the adaptability of crop growth to climate change. This study selected climate factors that affect the growth of wheat, maize and rice, and it combined surface soil and ground elevation factors as environment variables, as well as data from agricultural observation stations as species variables. The MaxEnt ecological model was used to identify suitable areas for these three crops during the period of 1953-2012. The areas suitable for the three crops were analyzed to determine the temporal-spatial distribution of major food crops and to estimate the difference in crop growth adaptability under climate change. The results showed the following: \mathrm{①} The response to climate change of the areas suitable for food crops could be ranked from strongest to weakest as follows: wheat, rice, and maize. \mathrm{②} On the same space-time scale, for the growth of wheat and rice, the southern agricultural regions, mountainous areas and plateaus were relatively unsuitable for a wider variety of crops than the northern agricultural regions, plains and basins. \mathrm{③} The adaptability of wheat increased in the major agricultural regions slightly. The adaptability of maize increased in the northern agricultural regions and decreased in the southern agricultural regions, respectively. The adaptability of rice was stable in the southern agricultural regions, and it decreased in the Huang-Huai-Hai region and increased in the northeastern region. \mathrm{④} Over 60 years, the ability of the major food crops to adapt to climate change increased in the northeast region, Gansu-Xinjiang region, Southwest region and Loess Plateau region, but the adaptability of major food crops decreased in the Huang-Huai-Hai region and the Mid-and-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River. \mathrm{⑤} The suitable areas of maize and rice were significantly correlated with planting areas and yields, respectively, which provided feasibility for simulating the distribution of suitable areas on maize and rice in different climate scenarios in the future. The suitable area of wheat is not significantly related to the planting area and yield. In the future, we will take more factors to model the suitable area of wheat accurately.     

Effects of Activated Irrigation Water on Soil Physicochemical Properties and Crop Growth and Analysis of the Probable Pathway

With the problem of shortage of water resources becoming increasingly prominent, the improvement of production efficiency of agricultural water resources in China has become an important research content of modern irrigated agriculture. The technology of activated irrigation water provides a new way to excavate the physiological production potential of irrigation water and improve the comprehensive efficacy of irrigation water in agro-ecosystems. In this study, the research progress of the variable characteristics of physicochemical properties of activated irrigation water, the transport and transformation of soil material by activated irrigation water, and the promotion of crop growth by activated irrigation water were comprehensively analyzed. On this basis, according to the basic theories of soil physics, crop physiology, and material transport dynamics, the effects of activated irrigation water on soil material transport, soil material transformation, water and nutrition uptake by root, and crop yield formation and the probable pathway were analyzed. The key problems of basic science and applied technology in the future research are put forward to provide reference for the scientific and reasonable utilization of activated irrigation water technology.     

黑河上游青海云杉森林生态系统蒸散发分割

通过对黑河上游排露沟流域海拔2 700 m和2 900 m处青海云杉森林生态系统不同季节的土壤水、 植物水和大气水汽等不同水体稳定氧同位素组成（δ¹⁸O）的测定, 运用Craig-Gordon模型、 同位素稳态假设和Keeling Plot模型分别得出土壤蒸发、 植物蒸腾和蒸散发的δ¹⁸O, 结合多元线性混合模型将生态系统蒸散发分割为土壤蒸发和植物蒸腾。结果表明： 土壤蒸发水汽的δ¹⁸O_E、 植物蒸腾水汽的δ¹⁸O_T及蒸散发水汽的δ¹⁸O_ET分别介于-35.9‰ ~ -25.2‰、 -9.0‰ ~ -4.2‰和-18.5‰ ~ -10.2‰之间, 三者顺序为δ¹⁸O_T > δ¹⁸O_ET > δ¹⁸O_E, 满足同位素稳态假设。植物蒸腾对蒸散发的贡献率（f_T）在52.2% ~ 88.4%之间变化, 土壤蒸发对蒸散发的贡献率（f_E）在11.6% ~ 47.8%之间变化, f_T远大于f_E, 说明生态系统蒸散发大部分来自于植物蒸腾, 即植物蒸腾是青海云杉森林生态系统蒸散发的重要组成部分。f_T与气温呈负相关, 而与相对湿度呈正相关, 说明气温对f_T起抑制作用, 相对湿度对f_T起促进作用, 但是相关系数不高, 说明f_T在自然环境下还可能受除气温和相对湿度外的多种环境因素和生物因素综合影响, 具体影响机理有待进一步探究。本研究结果可为进一步研究黑河流域区域内循环和流域尺度水循环研究提供理论依据。     

Advances and Challenges in the Study on the Tropical Rainfall Changes Under Global Warming*

Since tropical rainfall is important in the global energy and hydrologic cycle, the tropical rainfall changes under global warming have attracted extensive attention around the world in recent decades. The advances in the observational studies and model projection for the tropical rainfall changes under global warming were reviewed here. The frontiers in the mechanism of regional tropical rainfall changes and the approaches of rainfall change research are summarized. The large intermodel spread in the multi-model projections, the sources of uncertainty and the methods to reduce the uncertainty were also introduced. Finally, the challenges about the tropical rainfall changes were discussed.     

气候与土地利用变化对流域水资源的影响——以美国北卡罗莱纳州Trent流域为例

分布式水文模型PRMS可为气候与土地利用变化对流域水资源影响的研究提供技术和理论支撑.对Trent流域产流过程采用PRMS模型进行模拟检验,结果表明,Nash模型确定性系数达到0.8以上.水文响应单元(HRU)划分尺度减小,可以有效地提高PRMS模拟精度达7%左右,划分尺度缩小到71个HRU时,模拟精度不再提高.流域蒸...     

吉林省西部地表蒸散与土地利用/覆盖变化关系

地表蒸散作为地表水分平衡和能量平衡的重要组成部分,是土地利用/覆盖变化的一个关键驱动因素。地表蒸散量的大小影响土地利用变化过程;反过来,土地覆盖类型又控制地表蒸散量的大小。为了弄清它们之间的相互作用关系,揭示地表蒸散在生态环境变迁中的作用,基于地表能量平衡理论,计算了研究区1986、1996和2000年的蒸散量,并与对应年份的不同土地类型数据进行了叠加分析。结果表明,从1986年到2000年,研究区草地、沙地和盐碱地的蒸散量都在变大,其中以沙地蒸散量增长最快,草地次之,盐碱地增长最小,为土地类型向盐碱地和沙地转化提供了有利条件,在一定程度上说明了地表蒸散加剧了研究区生态环境恶化。     

Progress in the Research on the Impact of Wind Farms on Climate and Environment

Wind power has become one of the fastest growing renewable energy. With the large-scale deployment of wind farms in the world, people have started to pay attention to the impact of wind farms on the ecological environment and climate. This paper summarized the impact of wind farms on climate and ecological environment by investigating relevant literature: In the areas of wind farms, on the one hand, the set-up of wind turbines changes original aerodynamic roughness height and strengthens the dragging of the land surface against turbulence, directly affecting the turbulent motion of the boundary layer, resulting in the changes of intensity and pattern of material energy and water vapor exchange between land surface and near-surface atmosphere, further affecting the atmospheric circulation and climate. On the other hand, wind turbines convert the majority of the wind kinetic energy into electric energy, which produces the wake effect of the wind turbine. The budget patterns and spatial and temporal distribution of large-scale kinetic energy in the boundary layer are changed correspondingly, generating changes in various fluxes (heat flux, water vapor flux, etc.) in the atmosphere, which affect temperature, precipitation, and wind speed. Generally, the warming or cooling effect of wind farms on the near-surface is related to the stability of atmosphere. However, simulations in the global climate model showed that the average impact of wind farms on global climate is small, much smaller than the expected changes in greenhouse gas emissions and the interannual changes in natural climate.Wind power emits almost no carbon dioxide and pollutants. Compared with other traditional energy sources, it reduces water consumption but may generate some negative ecological impacts such as animal habitats, bird collisions, and noise, vision impact. However, some measures can be taken to mitigate these adverse effects.     

气候变化下水文极端事件变化预测研究进展

全球气候变化对洪水、干旱等极端水文事件的影响已成为一个亟待解决的科学问题.针对国内外在气候变化下采用统计降尺度和降雨径流模型对水文极端事件进行预测的研究进展进行了系统分析,在分类阐述的基础上,总结了国内外最新的研究进展及在预估过程中存在的问题和解决方案,试图凝练出一些气候变化背景下水文极端事件预估的新思路.结果表明:为有效降低极端水文事件预估的不确定性,各种集合模拟技术、数据同化方法、强化观测技术及水文模型的尺度转换理论将是有效的解决途径.     

黑河中游地区湿草地蒸散量试验研究

干旱区湿草地蒸散量的估算对区域草地生态环境建设、草场的科学管理和湿地保护等具有重要的意义.但目前为止,对湿草地蒸散的观测和研究非常少.以气象观测资料为基础,采用不同的方法估算了黑河中游湿草地的参考作物蒸散量(ET₀),并对5种方法计算结果进行了对比.结果表明,除Priestley-Taylor法外,其余几种方法计算结果十分接近,相关性好.用FAO Penman-Monteith公式计算结果对ET₀的变化作了分析:在一个完整年度内,试验地ET₀为1193.9mm,日均3.26mm·d^-1.在牧草不同生长季节,ET₀变化剧烈,非生长期、生长初期、生长中期、生长末期分别为0.92mm·d^-1、2.13mm·d^-1、5.33mm.d^-1和2.52mm·d^-1,其蒸散量分别占全年蒸散总量的7.85%、5.02%、70.90%和16.23%.ET₀在2月中下旬迅速增大,4月增大幅度最大,此后进一步增大直到7月达到最大,随后逐步减小,在11月中旬随着牧草生长期的结束降至年最低值.确定了牧草非生长期、生长初期、生长中期、生长末期的K_c分别为0.30、0.40、0.90和0.88,计算的牧草地年实际蒸散量为962.0mm,日均2.63mm·d^-1.     

遥感技术估算干旱区蒸散发研究进展

遥感技术能够提供大范围地表特征参数的特点使其在干旱区蒸散发研究中得到广泛的应用。介绍了遥感技术求取干旱区地表特征参数（地表反照率、冠层叶面积指数、地表温度）的方法,并对遥感估算干旱区的主要计算模型做了概括和分析,最后提出了估算过程中主要存在的问题和未来发展的方向。     

全球气候变化对地表水环境质量影响研究进展

全球气候变化对水文循环有着重要的影响,由气候变化所引起水资源量的时空分布和水质变化等问题已成为各国科学家和政府关注的热点。目前,气候变化对水资源的影响研究多集中于水量,而有关水质方面的影响研究相对较少。全球气候变化主要包括降水,气温,辐射和风速等气象因子的变化。本文综述了温度的升高、降水的增多或减少、风速和风型的变化、光照时间长短以及辐射增强等变化对地表水环境质量影响的研究进展;阐述了气候变化背景下,气象因子如何通过影响水体中污染物的来源、迁移转化方式、生化反应速率和生态效应等过程而直接或间接对地表水环境质量产生影响。并在对现有研究成果进行总结分析的基础上,从微观、中观和宏观的角度提出了气候变化对水环境质量影响的研究展望。