The Keylong Serai rock avalanche, NW Indian Himalaya: geomorphology and palaeoseismic implications

This paper describes the geomorphology of rock avalanche deposits that resulted from a major mountain slope failure at Keylong Serai on the north slope of the Indian High Himalaya, an area of high altitude desert. Cosmogenic ¹⁰Be exposure ages of the widespread deposits indicate their formation 7,510 ± 110 years BP. Proxy records for this region of the Himalaya imply a similar dry climatic regime to the present day at this time, suggesting that precipitation was an unlikely trigger for this rock avalanche. An alternative mechanism associated with rock-wall stress relaxation is also unlikely, given the earlier timing of deglaciation in this area. Given the enormous volume of debris generated by this event, the most likely trigger for this mountain collapse and resultant rock avalanche is high ground acceleration during a great earthquake (M > 8). It is proposed that rock avalanches can be used to extend the limited palaeoseismic record and improve information on the recurrence interval of great earthquakes within the Himalaya arc.     

Use of objective analysis to estimate winter temperature and precipitation at different stations over western Himalaya

Temperature and fresh snow are essential inputs in an avalanche forecasting model. Without these parameters, prediction of avalanche occurrence for a region would be very difficult. In the complex terrain of Himalaya, nonavailability of snow and meteorological data of the remote locations during snow storms in the winter is a common occurrence. In view of this persistent problem present study estimates maximum temperature, minimum temperature, ambient temperature and precipitation intensity on different regions of Indian western Himalaya by using similar parameters of the neighbouring regions. The location at which parameters are required and its neighbouring locations should all fall in the same snow climatic zone. Initial step to estimate the parameters at a location, is to shift the parameters of neighbouring regions at a reference height corresponding to the altitude of the location at which parameters are to be estimated. The parameters at this reference height are then spatially interpolated by using Barnes objective analysis. The parameters estimated on different locations are compared with the observed one and the Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) of the observed and estimated values of the parameters are discussed for the winters of 2007–2008.     

梅里雪山1991年和2019年雪崩事件重建及影响因素分析北大核心CSCD

梅里雪山雪崩多发,但缺乏系统监测和研究。1991年1月3日梅里雪山发生了造成中日联合登山队17名队员遇难的巨大雪崩事件。2019年安装在明永冰川末端附近的物候相机拍摄到临近梅里雪山明永冰川的一次雪崩事件。两次事件类型不同,这对我们进行雪崩预测预警有良好的指示作用。本研究以RAMMS(Rapid Mass Movement System)模型为手段,利用经验值和经验公式确定影响模拟结果的主要模型参数和积雪可能断裂深度,在优化分析的基础上,对两次雪崩事件进行重建,定量分析雪崩堆积量、堆积范围等。结果显示:1991年雪崩共持续了192s,雪崩体从海拔5730m处断裂,沿坡面崩塌而下最终堆积在海拔约5000m的冰川粒雪盆地区,形成面积为0.6km^(2),体积约67×10^(4)m^(3)的堆积体。2019年雪崩共持续了158s,雪崩流最大高度35.91m,最大速度79.34m·s,堆积量76.2×10^(4)m^(3),雪崩堆积范围与野外观测到的一致。两次雪崩事件发生地位于雪崩极高危险区和高危险区,在一定程度上验证了风险评估的准确性。研究结果可为梅里雪山地区未来潜在雪崩灾害的风险评估提供依据,为雪崩预测预警提供良好的参考。     

Avalanche hazard mapping over large undocumented areas

An innovative methodology to perform avalanche hazard mapping over large undocumented areas is herewith presented and discussed. The method combines GIS tools, computational routines, and statistical analysis in order to provide a “semi-automatic” definition of areas potentially affected by avalanche release and motion. The method includes two main modules. The first module is used to define zones of potential avalanche release, based on the consolidated relations on slope, morphology, and vegetation. For each of the identified zones of potential release, a second module, named Avalanche Flow and Run-out Algorithm (AFRA), provides an automatic definition of the areas potentially affected by avalanche motion and run-out. The definition is generated by a specifically implemented “flow-routing algorithm” which allows for the determination of flow behaviour in the track and in the run-out zone. In order to estimate the avalanche outline in the run-out zone, AFRA uses a “run-out cone”, which is a 3D projection of the angle of reach α. The α-value is evaluated by statistical analysis of historical data regarding extreme avalanches. Pre- and post-processing of the AFRA input/output data is done in an open source GIS environment (GRASS GIS). The method requires only a digital terrain model and an indication of the areas covered by forest as input parameters. The procedure, which allows rapid mapping of large areas, does not in principle require any site-specific historical information. Furthermore, it has proven to be effective in all cases where a preliminary cost-efficient analysis of the territories potentially affected by snow avalanche was needed.     

奎屯河新龙口右岸山体崩塌原因及再次失稳可能性分析

奎屯河新龙口段山体历史上多次发生山体塌滑破坏,最近一次山体崩塌较为反常地发生在1月寒冷季节,而不是通 常的7、8月雨季,针对该段山体频繁发生破坏而且还出现反季节崩塌这种特殊情况,从区域地质背景、地震作用、地形地貌、气 候及降水等几个方面分别详细论述了产生崩塌的原因,同时指出这次反季节崩塌产生的触发原因在于气候反常造成雪水入 渗、短时间内发生多次冻融,裂隙中液态水结冰产生膨胀力诱发了此次山体崩塌。采用赤平投影分析论证了潜在崩塌的可能 性问题,指出发生此次崩塌后的右岸山体仍然未达到稳定状态,还可能再次发生破坏,同时应用实体比例投影法圈定了最有 可能破坏的山体位置并对崩塌方量进行了计算,从而对山体潜在崩塌可能性及规模有了一定把握,对该段山体崩塌的防治具 有实际的工程意义。     

Automated mapping of snow/ice surface temperature using Landsat-8 data in Beas River basin,India, and validation with wireless sensor network data

In this paper, an automated method for retrieval of snow surface temperature (SST) in Beas River Basin, India, using Landsat-8 thermal data is proposed. Digital number (DN) values of thermal data were converted into Top of Atmospheric (TOA) radiance. Surface radiance has been estimated from TOA radiance using a single channel method. The estimated surface radiance was then converted into SST. Cloud free Landsat-8 data for January and February 2017 has been used to estimate SST. Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE) has established a wireless sensor network (WSN) in an avalanche prone slope in Beas River Basin, India. Landsat-8 retrieved SST has been compared and validated with recorded SST at WSN stations. The retrieved SST using proposed algorithm was in good agreement with SST recorded on ground by sensor network. The mean absolute error (MAE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE) between estimated and recorded SST has been observed as ~?1.1 K and ~?1.5 K for 23 January 2017 and ~?0.7 and ~?1.6 K for 24 February 2017. Algorithm has shown a potential for automated mapping of snow and ice surface temperature using Landsat-8 data for snow cover and glaciers in Himalaya.     

Large-scale assessment of avalanche and debris flow hazards in the Sakhalin region,Russian Federation

We explore the challenges of avalanche and debris flow hazard assessment for urban areas exposed in the Sakhalin region. Avalanches are a threat to more than 60 settlements in the region and debris flows to more than 30. Data are provided for avalanche and debris flow events that occurred in the Sakhalin region between 1928 and 2015. In this paper, the method for the design of hazard maps for snow avalanches and debris flows is described, providing the starting point for any planning constraints in general settlement planning schemes. These maps further allow conducting an assessment of avalanche and debris flow risk within a short time period for a larger territory and at minimum cost.

     

Deterministic strong ground motion study for the Sitamarhi area near Bihar–Nepal region

We explore the challenges of avalanche and debris flow hazard assessment for urban areas exposed in the Sakhalin region. Avalanches are a threat to more than 60 settlements in the region and debris flows to more than 30. Data are provided for avalanche and debris flow events that occurred in the Sakhalin region between 1928 and 2015. In this paper, the method for the design of hazard maps for snow avalanches and debris flows is described, providing the starting point for any planning constraints in general settlement planning schemes. These maps further allow conducting an assessment of avalanche and debris flow risk within a short time period for a larger territory and at minimum cost.     

Two‐layer scree/snow‐avalanche triggered by rockfall (Eastern Alps): Significance for sedimentology of scree slopes

Rockfalls that trigger scree‐laden snow avalanches are common in mountain ranges, but the resulting avalanche development and its role in understanding the sedimentology of scree slopes are rarely described in detail. On Riepenwand (2774 m above sea‐level, Kalkkögel range, Alps), on 6 May 2011 a 5800 m³ rockfall of dolostone detached from the flank of a gorge in the upper part of the mountain. After first collapsing into the gorge, the fragmented rock mass fell down freely for 150 m onto a talus covered by coarse‐granular snow. Rockfall impact triggered a medium‐scale avalanche that developed: (i) a lower layer A of entrained, pure snow; and (ii) an upper layer B of clay‐sized to boulder‐sized fragments mixed with snow. This ‘two‐layer scree/snow avalanche’ halted in the distal slope segment of the talus. Boulders within layer B mainly came to rest in the distal part of the avalanche deposit. Fragments smaller than cobble‐size grade did not show obvious downslope segregation. With snowmelt, the rockfall fragments dispersed in layer B were concentrated to a clast‐supported veneer that was draped over the older talus surface upon slower melting of avalanche layer A. In the grain‐size fraction ≤16 mm, a mean of 5 wt% matrix (silt‐sized to clay‐sized grains) of the rockfall‐derived scree of layer B is similar to a mean matrix content of 7 wt% within stratified talus slopes of the Kalkkögel range. This similarity suggests that a major share of matrix – widespread in stratified talus – stems from rockfalls. The characteristics of the scree veneer as melt‐lag of a scree‐laden snow avalanche will be blurred with time. Fossil talus successions may contain a substantial proportion of scree carried down by snow avalanches. The formation of a distinct sedimentary facies of snow avalanche‐deposited scree is impeded by processes of redeposition and deposit modification on talus.     

Characteristics and mitigation of the snow avalanche hazard in Kaghan Valley,Pakistan Himalaya

Snow avalanche hazards in mountainous areas of developing countries have received scant attention in the scientific literature. The purpose of this paper is to describe this hazard and mitigative measures in Kaghan Valley, Pakistan Himalaya, and to review alternatives for future reduction of this hazard. Snow avalanches have long posed a hazard and risk to indigenous populations of the Himalaya and Trans-Himalaya mountains. Land use intensification due to population growth, new transportation routes, military activity and tourism is raising levels of risk. The history of land use in the study area is such that investigations of avalanche hazard must rely on different theoretical bases and data than in most industrialised countries. Despite the intensive use of valley-bottom land which is affected by avalanches, a number of simple measures are currently employed by the indigenous population to mitigate the hazard. Out-migration during the winter months is the most important one. During the intensive use period of summer avalanche-transported snow provides numerous resources for the population. In Kaghan the avalanche hazard is increasing primarily as a result of poorly located new buildings and other construction projects. The large scale of avalanche activity there rules out any significant improvement or protection of the currently difficult winter access. Instead, future mitigation of the hazard should focus on protecting the small number of winter inhabitants and minimising property damage.     

Snow avalanche susceptibility evaluation in the central Shaluli Mountains of Tibetan Plateau based on machine learning method北大核心CSCD

Snow avalanches,which are widely and frequently developed at high elevations,seriously threatens the built traffic corridors in the Tibetan Plateau. Susceptibility evaluation of snow avalanche via machine learning model with a high forecast accuracy can be appled to quickly and effectively assess the regional avalanche risk. This paper took the central Shaluli Mountain region as the study area,in which the snow avalanche inventory was established through remote sensing interpretation and field investigation verification. We quantitatively extracted 17 evaluation factors via GIS-based analysis,and these factors were selected through the variance expansion factor（VIF）. Four machine learning models containing SVM,DT,MLP and KNN were used to compile the susceptibility index map of snow avalanches,and kappa coefficient and ROC curve were used to verify the accuracy. The results suggested that the susceptibility indexes obtained from SVM,DT,MLP and KNN were in the range of［0,0. 964］,［0,815］,［0,0. 995］and［0,1］,respectively. The accuracy test results show that these four models all have good prediction accuracy. Among them,the SVM model is the best. The results also indicated that the areas with the high snow avalanche susceptibility mainly distributed in Genie Mountain and Rigong Mountain,most of which were above the planation surface of the Tibetan Plateau. The average altitude of the extremely high snow-avalanche-prone areas is 4 939 m,while the average altitude of the high snow avalanche-prone areas is 4 859 m. The snow avalanche has low perniciousness on the Sichuan-Tibet Highway and the Sichuan-Tibet Railway in the study area. This study can provide theoretical basis and method reference for disaster prevention and mitigation of snow avalanche along Sichuan-Tibet Railway and other major projects across Shaluli Mountains region. © 2022 Science Press (China).     

Characteristics of wet-snow avalanche activity: 20 years of observations from a high alpine valley (Dischma,Switzerland)

The occurrence of wet-snow avalanches is, in general, poorly understood. For 20 years (winters of 1975–1976 to 1994–1995), the avalanche activity has been observed in the Dischma valley near Davos (Eastern Swiss Alps). The study area comprises a large starting zone of north-easterly aspect (2,300 m a.s.l.) with several avalanche paths. We have analyzed the occurrence data in combination with meteorological and snowpack data collected at an elevation of 2,090 m a.s.l. During the 20-year observation period, almost 800 wet-snow avalanches were observed, about 4.5 times more loose snow avalanches than slab avalanches. Considering both types of avalanches jointly, snow depth, precipitation and air temperature showed the highest correlation with avalanche activity. Most loose snow avalanches occurred when air temperature was high and/or after a precipitation period. Slab avalanches occurrence was primarily related to warm air temperatures and snowpack properties such as the isothermal state and the existence of capillary barriers. Radiation did not show up as a significant variable. The results suggest that in a transitional snow climate wet-snow avalanches are, as dry snow avalanches, often related to precipitation events, and that wet slab instability strongly depends on snowpack properties in relation to warming of the snowpack and melt water production.     

Monitoring and evaluation of seasonal snow cover in Kashmir valley using remote sensing,GIS and ancillary data

Seasonal snow cover is a vital natural resource in the Himalaya. Monitoring of the areal extent of seasonal snow cover is important for both climatological studies as well as hydrological applications. In the present paper, snow cover monitoring was carried out to evaluate the region-wise accumulation and ablation pattern of snow cover in Pir Panjal and Shamshawari ranges of Kashmir valley. The study was carried out for the winter period between November and April of 2004–05, 2005–06 and 2006–07, using multi-temporal WiFS sensor data of IRS-1C/1D satellites. The study shows reduction in the areal extent of seasonal snow cover and rising trend of maximum temperature in three winters for the entire Kashmir valley. This has been validated with 20 years (1988–89 to 2007–08) climatic conditions prevailed in both ranges of Kashmir valley. Region-wise study shows the spatial and temporal variability in seasonal snow cover within Kashmir valley. Advance melting was observed in Banihal and Naugam/Tangdhar regions than Gurez and Machhal regions. Different geographical parameters of these regions were studied to evaluate the influence on snow cover and it was observed that altitude and position of region with respect to mountain range are the deciding factors for retaining the seasonal snow cover for longer duration. Such region-wise study of snow cover monitoring, can provide vital inputs for planning the hydropower projects, development in habitat areas, recreational and strategic planning in the region.     

Snow avalanche incidents in north-western Anatolia,Turkey during December 1992

Snow avalanches take place in the mountainous regions of Turkey mostly in the eastern Anatolia Region with an average annual death toll of 23 people and much damage to property. However, in the mountainous areas of the Kastamonu and Sinop provinces in the western part of the Black Sea Region of Turkey between 25 and 30 December 1992, blizzards with heavy snowfall caused roof collapses and major avalanche events whereby 16 people were killed and 2 injured. When past records were investigated, there was no evidence that avalanche accidents had been encountered in the region where the dominant precipitation type is rain in the coastal zones and snow over the mountains. Moreover, avalanche prevention measures are so limited that the resettlement of villages or hamlets located in risk zones is common practice. In this article, avalanche formation associated with the meteorological conditions and geomorphologic features is discussed.This study was partially supported by Tübitak (Scientific and Technical Research Council of Turkey) with Project No. YBAG-0067.     

Two-phase Numerical Model of Powder Avalanche Theory and Application

In this paper the powder snow avalanche is considered as a two-phase flow (air and snow particles). The equations governing this flow are the fluid mechanics conservation laws. The mass and the momentum conservation are considered for each phase. The interaction between the two phases takes into account the drag force between the particle and the air. Owing to high turbulence in the powder flow, a closure model was used based on a modified k - model in order to take into account the reduction of turbulence energy by the particles. The dense avalanche is modeled using the shallow water equations. The formation and the development of the powder avalanche is modeled using a mass and momentum exchanges between the powder flow and the dense flow. The flow area is digitized horizontally and vertically using a finite elements mesh. The numerical scheme is obtained by integrating the equations on each cell. The model thus built was calibrated using laboratory measurements of density current carried out in a flume. The model was successfully applied to reproduce many avalanches observed in France. At the end of this paper, an application of this model to an engineering case study is presented. It concerns the Uzengili path where an avalanche occurred in 1993. In this paper we use the integrated dense/powder avalanche model to define the effect of a powder avalanche flow in this path. Different simulations allow display of maps of the exposed zones for different available snow depths in the starting zone. The results were mapped in terms of dynamic pressure field and recommendations are proposed to the local authorities.     

The Canary Debris Flow: source area morphology and failure mechanisms

The morphology of the source area of the Canary Debris Flow has been mapped using both GLORIA reconnaissance and TOBI high-resolution sidescan sonar systems. West of ≈19°W, the seafloor is characterized by a strongly lineated downslope-trending fabric. This fabric can be interpreted as being caused by streams of debris separated by longitudinal shears. Multiple flow pulses are indicated by a series of asymmetrical lateral ridges which mark the northern boundary of the flow. East of ≈19°W, GLORIA data show only a weak fabric of irregular patches and alongslope lineaments. The TOBI data show the patches to be coherent sediment blocks up to 10 km across, surrounded by debris flow material. These are interpreted as in situ areas of seafloor sediment which have survived the slope failure and debris flow event rather than transported fragments of a failed sediment slab. TOBI data from the best developed area of alongslope lineaments show a series of small faults downstepping to the west. This area of seafloor is interpreted as one of partial sediment failure, where the failure process became ‘frozen’ before total mobilization of the seafloor sediments could occur. The overall morphology of the failure area indicates removal of a slab-like body of sediment, although we cannot distinguish between retrogressive and slab-slide failure mechanisms. If the latter mechanism is applicable, fragmentation of the failing ‘slab’ must have commenced concurrently with the onset of downslope transport. Immediately upslope from the debris flow source area, a seafloor of characteristic rough blocky texture is interpreted as the surface of a debris avalanche derived from the slopes of the island of El Hierro. The debris flow and avalanche appear to be simultaneous events, with failure of the slope sediments occurring while the avalanche deposits were still mobile enough to fill and disguise the topographic expression of the debris flow headwall. Loading of the slope sediments by the debris avalanche most probably triggered the Canary Debris Flow.     

Avalanche Defence Strategies and Monitoring of Two Sites in Mountain Permafrost Terrain, Pontresina, Eastern Swiss Alps

Snow-supporting avalanche defence structures are increasingly being built at high altitudes in potential permafrost areas. Special construction methods and guidelines have been developed to ensure a minimal stability of the structures, which have a vital role in the protection of underlying settlements and transport infrastructure against snow avalanches. If the avalanche slopes are located on ice-rich permafrost terrain, as is the case in a steep avalanche gully above Pontresina (Eastern Swiss Alps), other means of protection must be used – such as deflection or retention dams – as construction on ice-rich sediments can be very problematic. Experimental snow-supporting structures were built in 1997 in order to test different types of structures and their foundations, to develop specially adapted construction methods and to monitor the long-term behaviour of the structures in moderately creeping frozen ground with volumetric ice contents under 20%. Snow-nets were found to be the most suitable type of protection against avalanches in this type of permafrost terrain due to their deformability and because they are well adapted to rock fall. The structures do not improve slope stability but contribute towards maintaining permafrost as they delay snow melt by modifying the spatial and temporal distribution of the snow cover. The results of the project described have led to a better understanding of permafrost-related avalanche defence problems.     

Logistic models as a forecasting tool for snow avalanches in a cold maritime climate: northern Gaspésie,Québec,Canada

Snow avalanches are a major natural hazard for road users and infrastructure in northern Gaspésie. Over the past 11 years, the occurrence of nearly 500 snow avalanches on the two major roads servicing the area was reported. No management program is currently operational. In this study, we analyze the weather patterns promoting snow avalanche initiation and use logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probability of avalanche occurrence on a daily basis. We then test the best LR models over the 2012–2013 season in an operational forecasting perspective: Each day, the probability of occurrence (0–100%) determined by the model was classified into five classes avalanche danger scale. Our results show that avalanche occurrence along the coast is best predicted by 2 days of accrued snowfall [in water equivalent (WE)], daily rainfall, and wind speed. In the valley, the most significant predictive variables are 3 days of accrued snowfall (WE), daily rainfall, and the preceding 2 days of thermal amplitude. The large scree slopes located along the coast and exposed to strong winds tend to be more reactive to direct snow accumulation than the inner-valley slopes. Therefore, the probability of avalanche occurrence increases rapidly during a snowfall. The slopes located in the valley are less responsive to snow loading. The LR models developed prove to be an efficient tool to forecast days with high levels of snow avalanche activity. Finally, we discuss how road maintenance managers can use this forecasting tool to improve decision making and risk rendering on a daily basis.     

Optimisation of Hidden Markov Model using Baum–Welch algorithm for prediction of maximum and minimum temperature over Indian Himalaya

Maximum and minimum temperatures are used in avalanche forecasting models for snow avalanche hazard mitigation over Himalaya. The present work is a part of development of Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based avalanche forecasting system for Pir-Panjal and Great Himalayan mountain ranges of the Himalaya. In this work, HMMs have been developed for forecasting of maximum and minimum temperatures for Kanzalwan in Pir-Panjal range and Drass in Great Himalayan range with a lead time of two days. The HMMs have been developed using meteorological variables collected from these stations during the past 20 winters from 1992 to 2012. The meteorological variables have been used to define observations and states of the models and to compute model parameters (initial state, state transition and observation probabilities). The model parameters have been used in the Forward and the Viterbi algorithms to generate temperature forecasts. To improve the model forecasts, the model parameters have been optimised using Baum–Welch algorithm. The models have been compared with persistence forecast by root mean square errors (RMSE) analysis using independent data of two winters (2012–13, 2013–14). The HMM for maximum temperature has shown a 4–12% and 17–19% improvement in the forecast over persistence forecast, for day-1 and day-2, respectively. For minimum temperature, it has shown 6–38% and 5–12% improvement for day-1 and day-2, respectively.     

Snow avalanche hazards in the Făgăraş massif (Southern Carpathians): Romanian Carpathians—Management and perspectives

Snow avalanches represent an undeniable reality in the Southern Carpathians both as a geomorphic process and as a type of hazard. Before the 1990s, few researchers focused on avalanches in Romania. However, after 1990, avalanches became an increasingly important topic of Romanian research including research on their management implications. This study focuses on the Făgăraş massif, a representative mountain unit in the Southern Carpathians that is dominant due to its glacial and periglacial relief, high altitudes and high occurrence of avalanche hazards. Three main research issues are considered. First, types of avalanches are delineated along with affected areas of the Balea glacial valley (on the northern slope) and the Capra glacial valley (on the southern slope) using data from a research centre for snow and avalanche monitoring that was created in the Balea glacial cirque in 2003. Second, the impact of avalanches on human activities is considered including transportation use of the Transfăgărăşan Highway that traverses the highest elevations in Romania and winter recreation activities such as skiing, snowboarding, climbing and hiking. The impacts on forests are also considered. Third, the needs and gaps of avalanche management are considered, specifically in the Făgăraş massif and also more generally in the mountains of Romania.