北极Svalbard群岛Longyearbyen地区雪坑主要阴、阳离子特征研究

北极Ｓｖａｌｂａｒｄ群岛Ｌｏｎｇｙｅａｒｂｙｅｎ地区３条冰川８个雪坑样品的分析结果表明,该地区冰川表层雪中海盐离子Ｃｌ－和Ｎａ＋占主导地位,其浓度远高于其它离子,而陆源Ｃａ２＋在雪坑秋季污化层中浓度远远高于其它层位,可作为雪坑定年中秋季层位的标志。在季节变化上,海盐离子和ＳＯ２－４、ＮＯ－３在春季和夏季表现为高值,这与冬春季节北大西洋风暴和中纬度人类污染物远距离传输到北极有关,也与夏季局地海洋性气团、大气中氧化作用、光电作用和清除速率有关。同全球的边远地区格陵兰、南极和青藏高原比较,Ｌｏｎｇｙｅａｒｂｙｅｎ地区雪中离子浓度水平较高,特别是海盐离子浓度远高于其它地区。     

气候变化情景下中国自然生态系统脆弱性研究

本研究以动态植被模型LPJ 为主要工具,以区域气候模式工具PRECIS 产生的A2、B2和A1B情景气候数据为输入,模拟了未来气候变化下中国自然生态系统的变化状况,应用脆弱性评价模型,评估中国自然生态系统响应未来气候变化的脆弱性。结果表明:未来气候变化情景下中国东部地区脆弱程度呈上升趋势,西部地区呈下降趋势,但总体上,中国自然生态系统的脆弱性格局没有大的变化,仍呈现西高东低、北高南低的特点。受气候变化影响严重的地区是东北和华北地区,而青藏高原区南部和西北干旱区受气候变化影响,脆弱程度明显减轻。气候变化情景下的近期气候变化对我国生态系统的影响不大,但中、远期气候变化对生态系统的负面影响较大,特别是在自然条件相对较好的东部地区,脆弱区面积增加较多。     

一万年以来凉山地区气候变迁

利用地层沉积物孢粉分析成果和相关文献记载复原一万年以来凉山地区的气候状况,并分析了历史时期凉山地区气候变迁的规律:凉山地区一万年以来气候变化大致可分为8个时期,其间气候有冷暖干湿的变化.气温的变化幅度在1℃～2℃,垂直气候带有上升和下降的变化,升降幅度在200～400 m之间.一万年以来凉山地区气候变化的总体趋势与内地大体一致,但在具体时段上有一定差异,气温虽有冷暖的变化,但总体上气温比内地略为温暖.     

基于历史文献的华南地区气候变化研究进展

总结和分析了利用历史文献代用资料重建具有代表性的华南气候序列（包括温度变化和降水/干湿变化序列）的状况,认为华南地区历史时期气候变化研究虽已取得丰硕成果,但存在时间分辨率较低、空间范围宽泛、数据的统一性和可靠性较差,以及缺乏气候变化的相关机制和气候变化周期研究等方面的问题,指出应进一步挖掘华南地区高分辨率气候代用资料（历史文献）,提升气候变化研究的时间分辨率和空间覆盖度、加强重建序列的可靠性、增加其周期性和趋势性分析等是解决该地区气候变化研究问题的有效途径。     

气候变化背景下青藏高原地区游客决策与体验分析

青藏高原地区生态环境脆弱,其特殊的自然地理环境使其旅游活动对气候变化的反应更为敏感。本文基于545位入藏游客的问卷调查,实证分析青藏高原地区游客对气候变化因子的认知和体验状况,探究气候变化对青藏高原地区旅游活动的影响机理。得出以下主要结论：① 入藏前游客对天气和气候状况的关注度并不高,但是在旅行中这一因素却是旅游体验的最大影响因素;② 优美的高原自然风光是游客对西藏的核心认知之一,直接影响游客的决策与体验;③ 不同地理区域的游客对高原气候因子的关注度和自然环境要素的重视度并不存在显著差异,动机类型才是显著影响这二者的重要因素。研究进一步表明,青藏高原气候的暖湿化趋势对提升该地区的游客体验有积极作用,但气候变化带来的优势并不能够直接转化为潜在游客的出游活动。     

近32 a中亚地区气温时空格局分析

中亚地区生态环境脆弱,生态系统对于气候变化的响应非常敏感,但其气候变化的时空格局并不清楚。该区域气象站点分布稀疏、高精度气象数据缺乏,利用单一数据源研究气候变化具有极大的不确定性。因此,结合站点数据和再分析数据探索中亚五国气候变化时空格局具有重要的研究价值。选取31个气象站点数据（OBS）、CRU气象插值数据和CFSR、ERA-Interim和MERRA三套高精度的再分析数据,对中亚地区1980-2011年的年、四季气温的时空格局变化进行分析。研究结果表明：（1） 近32 a中亚年均气温显著升高,增温速率为0.36～0.47 ℃·（10 a）^-1,即过去的近32 a中亚地区平均气温升高1.15～1.50 ℃。（2）四季气温变化中春季的增温速率最快（0.71～0.93 ℃·（10 a）^-1）,而冬季气温无显著性的变化。（3）中亚中部、南部、西南部、西部地区显著增温,尤其是在1990s后期至2000s前期经历了显著性地增温过程,而中亚其它地区气温无显著变化。     

昆仑山垭口地区的冷湿气候及其意义

对昆仑山垭口地区三岔河组地层和小南川组地层的沉积相、孢粉、化学分析和软体动物化石分析等结果表明,本区在末次间冰期有过气候的快速变化,在晚更新世中期气候具有冷湿组合的特点。昆仑山垭口地区是反映高原季风强弱变化的敏感地区,加强对本区末次间冰期以来的气候演变模式及气候变化不稳定性的研究,对于掌握全球气候变化规律,预测未来气候变化具有重要意义。     

新疆东部树木年表的建立及近代气候变化趋势探讨

以树木年轮提供的气候信息,建立树木年表,是了解过去气候变化事实,探知气候变化规律的一个重要手段。本文通过树木年表的建立,并用有关文史资料及自然迹象佐证,对新疆东部地区历史时期(着重最近数百年)的气候变化进行了分析,并对未来气候变化趋势作出推断。     

全球气候变化对美国农业经济影响的再评估

本研究利用现代ＧＣＭ预测，改善了植物科学和水份供给数据以及模拟能力完善的经济模型，评估了长时间内气候变化夺美国农业的经济影响。对于作物产量，作物需水和因气候变化而增加的灌溉水的变化导致经济结果的变化，三个ＧＣＭ的预测结果各不相同；ＧＩＳＳ和ＧＦＤＬ－ＱＦｌｕｘ分析的结果是整体经济收入增加，而ＵＫＭＯ分析结果则包含有减少。     

内蒙古典型地区牧户气候变化感知与适应的实证研究

我国北方草原地区是气候变化影响的脆弱和敏感地区。研究北方草原地区牧户对气候变化的感知和适应,对于提高牧区气候变化的适应能力,促进草原地区可持续发展意义重大。本文利用问卷调查的实证分析方法,研究了内蒙古草甸草原、荒漠草原、荒漠生态区牧户对气候变化趋势和极端气候灾害事件的感知和适应的现状与行为特征。结果表明：过去30年内蒙...     

A comparison of climatic change between Svalbard in Arctic and the Qinghai Tibetan Plateau

ＡｃｏｍｐａｒｉｓｏｎｏｆｃｌｉｍａｔｉｃｃｈａｎｇｅｂｅｔｗｅｅｎＳｖａｌｂａｒｄｉｎＡｒｃｔｉｃａｎｄｔｈｅＱｉｎｇｈａｉ┐ＴｉｂｅｔａｎＰｌａｔｅａｕＫａｎｇＳｈｉｃｈａｎｇ（康世昌）,ＹａｏＴａｎｄｏｎｇ（姚檀栋）ａｎｄＱｉｎＤａｈｅ（秦大河...     

横断山区近代气候变化的研究

横断山地处我国西南的藏东、川西和滇西北一带,境内地形复杂,平均海拔在3000米以上。长期以来,由于资料短缺,对该地区历史时期气候变化研究甚少。经实地考察,作者获取若干树木年轮标本,辅以其它类型资料,对该地区最近数百年来的温度、降水变化及气候类型演替,予以初步分析。并论及气候变化的振幅与周期性。     

The Dynamics of Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera) Assemblages in Response to Environmental Change during the past 700 years on Svalbard

The impact of recent natural and human-induced environmental change on chironomid faunas on Svalbard has been investigated. The modern chironomid fauna was studied from surface-sediment samples collected from 23 lakes in western Svalbard. A total of 18 taxa was found, of which three had not been recorded previously from Svalbard. The influence of water chemistry and physical variables on the distribution and abundance of the modern chironomid assemblages was investigated using correspondence analysis and multiple regression. The chironomid assemblages fall into four groups, which are primarily influenced by pH, nutrient concentrations, water temperature, and water depth. Sediment cores were taken from three lakes to investigate changes in chironomid assemblages over the last 700 years. At two of the sites there is evidence for a response to regional climatic change occurring about 200 years ago and may have been associated with the ‘Little Ice Age’. At the third site there is a response to local catchment changes, probably brought about, initially, by the establishment of a human settlement close to the lake 70 years ago, and subsequently, as a result of the abandonment of this settlement in 1988.     

Recent Environmental Change and Atmospheric Contamination on Svalbard as Recorded in Lake Sediments – Synthesis and General Conclusions

The major patterns of biostratigraphical and geochemical change detected in a multidisciplinary study on recent environmental change and atmospheric contamination on Svalbard are summarised and synthesised. The patterns discussed are changes in sediment accumulation rates, organic matter accumulation rates, atmospheric contaminants, and biological assemblages (diatoms, chrysophyte cysts, chironomids). Possible environmental factors that may have influenced these patterns are discussed, in particular, the role of atmospheric contamination (including the deposition of nitrogen-compounds), local human impact, and recent climatic change. The major conclusions are (1) sediment accumulation rates show consistent temporal and geographical patterns with rates increasing towards the present-day and highest in the south, (2) sediment organic-matter accumulation rates increase markedly in the last 50–100 years, (3) atmospheric contamination is a combination of local and regional sources, (4) sediment inorganic geochemistry suggests catchment and lake responses to climate change in the last 30–50 years, (5) all lakes show a marked increase in the rate of biotic compositional changes in the last 50–100 years, and (6) Svalbard lakes appear to be highly dynamic and show considerable biotic and sedimentary changes in recent decades. The most likely cause of many of the observed changes is recent climatic change, with some local human activity at one site. Detailed interpretation of the observed changes is problematic given current limited knowledge about high Arctic limnology, biology, and catchment processes.     

Thermophilous molluscs on Svalbard during the Holocene and their paleoclimatic implications

Five species of guide fossils from the Holocene warm period in Svalbard are considered: Mytilus edulis, Modiolus modiolus, Arctica islandica, Littorina littorea and Zirphaea crispata . These are now extinct in Svalbard; Zirphaea crispata , especially, requires considerable higher water temperatures than occur there today. Known radiocarbon dates on Mytilus, Modiolus and Zirphala are given. Thirty-four dates on Mytilus edulis show that it lived in Svalbard from before 9500 BP to about 3500 BP, and probably again around 1000 BP. Five dates on Modiolus and Zirphaea indicate a climatic optimum in Svalbard from about 8700 BP to 7700 BP. The most favourable places then had conditions similar to the northeastern coast of Finnmark, northernmost Norway, today. Mytilus edulis is considered a good climate indicator, and a future warming of the marine climate in Svalbard could be indicated by its eventual re-immigration into the area.     

Recent variations of Antarctic temperature, sea ice and ozone

１ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＡｎｔａｒｃｔｉｃｒｅｇｉｏｎ,ｉｎｃｌｕｄｉｎｇＡｎｔａｒｃｔｉｃｃｏｎｔｉｎｅｎｔ,ｓｕｂ－ＡｎｔａｒｃｔｉｃｉｓｌａｎｄｓａｎｄｓｏｕｔｈｏｃｅａｎｅｎｃｉｒｃｌｉｎｇｔｈｅＡｎｔａｒｃｔｉｃＣｏｎｔｉｎｅｎｔ,ｈａｓ...     

Permafrost in Svalbard: a review of research history, climatic background and engineering challenges

This paper reviews permafrost in High Arctic Svalbard, including past and current research, climatic background, how permafrost is affected by climatic change, typical permafrost landforms and how changes in Svalbard permafrost may impact natural and human systems. Information on active layer dynamics, permafrost and ground ice characteristics and selected periglacial features is summarized from the recent literature and from unpublished data by the authors. Permafrost thickness ranges from less than 100 m near the coasts to more than 500 m in the highlands. Ground ice is present as rock glaciers, as ice-cored moraines, buried glacial ice, and in pingos and ice wedges in major valleys. Engineering problems of thaw-settlement and frost-heave are described, and the implications for road design and construction in Svalbard permafrost areas are discussed.     

利川南坪泥炭形成的环境分析

根据钻孔、孢粉分析、粘土矿物X射线分析、¹⁴C测年等资料,本文讨论了鄂西南山原利川一带玉木亚间冰期以来气候波动的历史,分析了在亚热带高压带喀斯特作用和山地条件下,泥炭形成的环境特点。     

塔克拉玛干地区干湿波动与全球温度变化关系探讨

塔克拉玛干地区随着青藏高原隆起形成大沙漠以来，一直处于干旱环境，但存在着相对干湿波动，与全球温度变化呈现的冷干－暖湿特征相一致。认为沙漠化事件主要是发生在气候变冷、变干背景下，加上人类活动共同影响所致。历史上古遗址的废弃大多发生在冷干期。     

130ka来陕北黄土高原北部的气候变迁

根据陕北黄土高原北部两个典型的地层剖面的岩性特征、磁化率曲线等古气候相关指标，认为１３０ｋａ来该区域气候经历了四个明显的暖湿期与干冷期的交替变化。这与黄土高原洛川剖面所反映的古气候旋回及深海氧同位素曲线变化趋势基本吻合，并与全球气候变化具有同步性。