Lessons in precaution: The International Whaling Commission experience with precautionary management

The precautionary principle (PP) only represents a new approach to managing uncertainty in so far that it requires proponents of an activity or substance to provide evidence that the activity/substance is harmless, as opposed to the more traditional “trial and error” approach that has instead placed the burden of proof that something is harmful on its opponents. This article critiques the PP as a policy making tool for managing uncertainty, focusing on the epistemological problems it raises, before then using the International Whaling Commission's experience with precautionary approaches to wildlife management to demonstrate the principle's limits and weaknesses when applied in a highly politicised policymaking environment. The article concludes that while the PP offers some benefits for managing uncertainty, its vagueness and openness to broad interpretation can also result in its application creating, rather than limiting, risks and uncertainty.     

Rethinking the principle of abstention: the North Pacific and beyond

While the principle of abstention was established as part of the International North Pacific Fishery Convention in 1952, it was generally overlooked for several decades afterwards. The 1995 Straddling Stocks Agreement says that states parties to the Agreement enjoy a right to access to high seas fishery resources, but on the condition that they respect existing regional conservation and management measures. This Agreement also introduces the concept of a precautionary approach. The end result is that the 1995 Agreement fulfilled the same intent of the original 1952 principle of abstention—that is, it places some kinds of restrictions on high seas fishing. The degree of restrictions depends on the activities and policies of new regional fishery organizations like WCPFC and so on. Even if the new version of the principle of abstention succeeds in excluding distant fishing states from high seas, it will do little to solve the larger problems facing today's ocean fishery resources.     

Multiple “stable” states and the conservation of marine ecosystems

Marine ecosystems were among the first to provide potential examples of multiple stable states. However, remarkably few of these have been explored in detail, and none have been rigorously confirmed. This may be because differences between alternative states are too subtle to document in the context of regular disturbance, because one state is naturally far more likely to occur than any other, or because most environments naturally support only one type of stable community. It is also possible that the temporal and spatial criteria required to document alternate stable states rigorously may be too difficult to meet in most circumstances. Nevertheless, the possibility of alternative stable states has recently received renewed attention in the context of marine conservation biology. People may be widening the range of habitats in which alternate stable states are possible, or they may be shifting communities to new domains of attraction that rarely occur in the absence of massive anthropogenic perturbations. The ability of people now to alter ocean ecosystems on global scales may eliminate “edge effects” that might otherwise rescue perturbed communities. Ecosystems with alternate stable states are characterized by positive feedback mechanisms that stabilize transitions; even if return to original conditions is predicted (that is, the alternate states are not stable), the same mechanisms will retard recovery. This may explain in part why return to original conditions following anthropogenic disturbance is slower than expected. Slow recovery times and transitions to new states are both potentially costly to human societies. Thus, from a conservation perspective the indefinite persistence of an alternate state may be less important than the presence of feedback loops that slow recovery. Both possibilities reinforce the arguments for application of the precautionary principle in managing marine ecosystems.     

Beyond fisheries management: The Phronetic dimension

This paper has two main sources of inspiration. Firstly, building on Flyvbjerg's “Making Social Science Matter”[Flyvbjerg B. Making social science matter: why social inquiry fails and how it can succeed again. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2003], I argue that the contribution of the social sciences to fisheries resource management must essentially be “phronetic” (after Aristotle's phronesis, i.e. practical wisdom), in contrast to the “scientific” (Aristotle: episteme) contribution of the natural sciences. Secondly, inspired by the recent publication “Fish for Life: Interactive Governance for Fisheries” [Kooiman J, Jentoft S, Pullin R, Bavinck M, editors. Fish for life: interactive governance for fisheries. Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press; 2005], I hold that phronesis is basically what the notion of governance adds to management. Governance is the broader concept, inviting a more reflexive, deliberative and value-rational methodology than the instrumental, means-end oriented management concept. I claim that for interdisciplinarity to work in fisheries it is essential to recognize the fundamental methodological differences that exist between the social and natural sciences.     

The discrete methods for free vibration analyses of an immersed beam carrying an eccentric tip mass with rotary inertia

In this paper, a beam without contact with water is called the “dry” beam and the one in contact with water is called the “wet” beam. For a partially (or completely) immersed uniform beam carrying an eccentric tip mass possessing rotary inertia, the conventional analytical (closed-form) solution is achieved by considering the inertial forces and moments of the tip mass and rotary inertia as the boundary conditions at the tip end of the beam. However, it has been found that the approximate solution for the last problem may be achieved by two techniques: Method 1 and Method 2. In Method 1, the basic concept is the same as the conventional analytical method; but in Method 2, the tip end of the beam is considered as a free end, while the inertial forces and moments induced by the tip mass and rotary inertia are considered as the external loads applied at the tip end of the beam. The main differences between the formulation of Method 1 and that of Method 2 are: In Method 1, the “normal” shapes of the “dry” beam are functions of the frequency-dependent boundary conditions but the external loads at the tip end are equal to zero; On the contrary, in Method 2, the “normal” mode shapes of the “dry” beam are determined based on the zero boundary conditions at the tip end of the beam but the external loads at the tip end due to the inertial effects of the tip mass and rotary inertia must be taken into consideration for the free vibration analysis of the “wet” beam. Numerical results reveal that the approximate solution obtained from Method 2 are very close to that from Method 1 if the tip mass moment of inertia is negligible. Besides, the two approximate solutions are also very close to the associated analytical (closed-form) solution or the finite element solution. In general, it is hoped that there exist several methods for tackling the same problem so that one may have more choices to incorporate with the specified cases. It is believed that the two approximate methods presented in this paper will be significant from this point of view.     

Performance assessment of a concept propulsor: the thrust-balanced propeller

This paper presents the results of a numerical performance analysis to demonstrate the worthiness of a recently patented new concept propulsor, the so-called “thrust-balanced propeller (TBP)”. The main advantage of this unconventional propulsor is its inherent ability to reduce the unsteady effect of blade forces and moments when it is operating in a non-uniform wake flow. The propulsor comprises a pair of diametrically opposed blades that are connected to one another and mounted so as to be rotatable together through a limited angle about their spindle axis. A quasi-hydrodynamic approach is described and applied to perform the numerical analysis using a state-of-the-art lifting surface procedure for conventional propellers. Performance comparisons with a conventional fixed-pitch propeller are made for the blade forces and moments, efficiency, cavitation extents and fluctuating hull pressures. Bearing in mind the quasi-static nature of the analyses, the results present favourable performance characteristics for the thrust-balanced propeller and support the worthiness of the concept. However, the concept needs to be proved through physical model tests, which are planned to take in a cavitation tunnel.     

Total (practical) stability of ships

In this paper the “total (practical) stability” concept is introduced to nonlinear forced rolling motion of a ship. This is achieved by employing “boundedness” and “Lyapunov's function” approach. In this respect two new theorems are proved and conditions and domain of Practical Stability are evaluated. The Paper also contains a critical review of the present status of international intact ship stability regulations. A qualitative discussion of oscillatory rolling motion and the capsizing phenomena is presented.     

Heated diver decompression shelter: The “womb concept”

A hybrid thermal protection method using waste heat from a surface-mounted outboard motor is shown to create a warm “micro-climate” environment for divers. The effects of surface heater capacities, water flow rates, shelter volume and shelter insulation on micro-climate temperatures are characterized. During long, cold-water decompression stops this method offers a reliable, low-cost alternative to surface-supplied hot water suits or diver-carried heating systems. An added bonus for divers using closed-circuit breathing apparatus is prolonged durations of their carbon dioxide scrubbers when surrounded by the warm water “micro-climate”. Closed-circuit and open-circuit options of this diver decompression shelter concept are evaluated.     

Alternative placement technique for antifer blocks used on breakwaters

In this study, a placement technique named as “alternative placement technique” was developed for antifer blocks and the results of its application to a breakwater model were presented. This placement technique was compared with the existing techniques such as the “regular placement technique”, the “irregular placement technique” and the “sloped wall placement technique” by experiments. The comparison was carried out considering armor layer stability, prototype placement, clarity of the placement technique’s definition, armor layer cost, and wave runup. As a result of this investigation the “alternative placement technique” was found to be superior to the other existing placement techniques.     

Transient effects in wave-current boundary layer flow

Previous studies of combined wave and current bottom boundary layer flow have concentrated on the final converged state of the flow following the addition of waves to a current. While this final state is of primary interest to modellers and engineers, it pre-supposes that such a state is actually attained in reality, and this may not always be the case. In addition, it overlooks the interesting and complicated transient effects which occur as a wave-current flow evolves from one state to another. The present study concentrates attention on the transient effects predicted by a “one-equation” turbulence closure model. Results of case studies are presented in which waves are superimposed co-linearly on a current (“forward problem”), and are then removed from the converged wave-current flow (“backward problem”). Two formulations of the “forward” and “backward” problems are discussed. In the first the steady component of the pressure gradient driving the mean flow is held constant throughout, and in the second the steady component of the mass flux is held constant. In each case the detailed evolution of the profiles of mean velocity, turbulent energy, mixing length, eddy viscosity and shear stress are discussed. More generally, the question of the convergence timescale of a combined wave-current flow is considered, and a convergence criterion is proposed.     

Artificial beach growth for breakwater protection at the Port of Timaru, east coast, South Island, New Zealand

The paper concerns beach growth by trapping longshore drift to form a protective beach seaward of the principal “weather” breakwater at the Port of Timaru, east coast, South Island. This “spending beach” concept was aproached by evaluating downdrift extension and considerable progradation of an existing accumulation at South Beach which is a product of harbour development since 1879 and which was held in quasi-stability by ongoing extractions of the net surplus littoral drift of coarse sands and gravels (averaging 60,000 m³ yr⁻¹).A one-line model was adapted from sand beach conditions and scaled to the morphology and processes of the mixed sand and gravel beaches at Timaru. Calibration of the model was performed from related research into the rates and temporal pattern of longshore drift on South Beach. A hundred year history of shoreline progradation against the harbour structures was utilised to verify the model.The concept offered a high benefit: cost ratio for a small engineering intervention provided shoreline forms and behaviour could be specified sufficiently for planning, statutory consent, engineering, economic and environmental impact assessment purposes. A 150 m long spur groin near the harbour entrance would trap about 12 ha of sand and gravel in about 8 years. The new shore would be better aligned to the dominant swell and storm waves than the present shore, so reducing long term net drift rates.Construction of the scheme commenced in May 1987 and progress to date is detailed.     

Wavelet and artificial neural network analyses of tide forecasting and supplement of tides around Taiwan and South China Sea

In multi-resolution analysis (MRA) by wavelet function Daubechies (db), we decompose the signal in two parts, the low and high-frequency contents. We remove the high-frequency content and reconstruct a new “de-noise” signal by using inverse wavelet transform. The calculation of tidal constituent phase-lags was made to determine the input and output data patterns used in building network structure of Artificial Neuron-Network (ANN) model. The “de-noise” signal was, then, used as the input data to improve the forecasting accuracy of the ANN model. The wavelet spectrum, conventional energy spectrum (fast Fourier transform, FFT), and harmonic analysis were used to analyze the characteristics of tidal data.Using only a very short-period data as a training data set in Artificial Neuron-Network Back-Propagate (ANN-BP) model, the developed ANN+Wavelet model can accurately predict or supply the missing tide data for a long period (1–5 years). The results also show that the concept of tidal constituent phase-lags can improve ANN model of tidal forecasting and data supplement. The addition of the wavelet analysis to ANN method can prominently improve the prediction quality.     

Sediment—sea interaction

1. (1) The nature of sediment—sea interactions depends on the time scale considered. At a time scale commensurate with human life, one can define a water—sediment interface, and the main exchanges are solutes exchanges through this interface by concentration diffusion. This condition will be termed as “Short time-scale equilibrium interaction”.

On the other hand, at a geological time scale, there is a continuous accretion to the “sediment” of suspended particulate matter, bottom-current borne materials and sometimes precipitates of previously dissolved salts; to this sediment build-up corresponds a flux of water of reverse sense, from the sediment to the water column, due to the compaction of muds and oozes which reduce their porosity (their water content) under their own load. The concept of interface is then of limited utility, since physically it is constantly changing, and since the material balance of the exchanges does not depend on its characteristics at a first order of approximation. This condition will be termed “long time-scale geological interaction”.

These situations are extreme ones. In areas of present important detrital sedimentation, even for short time spans it is doubtful if the definition of an interface has some utility: we are in a situation close to “geological time scale”. On the contrary, in abyssal zones remote from continents, the rate of sedimentation is so low that even for eons an interface separating two environments in physico-chemical equilibrium exists.

2. (2) If there were no internal sources of dissolved species in the sediment, the only concentration changes to occur would be due to the decrease in porosity (in water content) following gravitational compaction of sediments. But this phenomenon is the same as sedimentation, thus transfer of matter would be unappreciable within short time spans. The fact that this transfer can be measured at human time scale shows therefore that dissolved species are actually produced in the sediment. Some of these can originate from possible inorganic chemical reactions, but all the organic molecules, and an important part of the inorganic (such as phosphates, nitrates, NH₄⁺, S^2-) require processing of organic matter for their production. Whether or not this reworking is of biological origin remains controversial. On the whole, the quantities of matter thus transferred are very minute compared to the quantities present in oceanic waters. They cannot be considered in general as a significant input. But they may be important locally (nearshore restricted water bodies, or manganese nodules formation).

3. (3) At geological time scale, sedimentation, which adds solid material to the preexisting sediment, results also in the compaction of this sediment. At every depth in the sediment there exists an equilibrium value of the porosity, i.e. the fluids content, of the sediment; it tends to this value by expelling the corresponding quantity of fluids, with a rate determined by its permeability. This input may be important, but it is mainly water, and water formerly oceanic: therefore it is not a true input, but simply a delayed return. The transfer of other fluids (mainly oil and gas) is unsignificant generally speaking. Once more, it may be locally important (submarine seepages).

4. (4) On the whole, the processes of water—sediment interaction appear not to add any new matter into the oceanic pool, but rather to regulate the restitution by the sediment to the water of substances which were already present in ocean, in particulate or dissolved form, either free or combined. One can trace out two main processes, which differ in their rates and yields:

4.1. (a) the short time scale diffusion—high rate low yield restitution of organics and inorganics in dissolved state:

4.2. (b) the long time scale compaction: low rate high yield restitution of entrapped fluids, essentially water (devoid of dissolved species).

Not only do these processes not bring any new matter to the ocean, but even the absolute quantities involved are modest compared either to the quantities present in the ocean or to the quantities generated by the photosynthetic primary production or brought by the rivers.In contrast to the insignificance of the water—sediment interaction in the oceanic material balance, this same interaction is one of the main sources for the material sedimented and especially the organic one, and therefore it is a fundamental key for all the subsequent sedimentary history.The significant inputs at the limit “bottom”-water come from the regions of deep tectonic activity, volcanism, creation of new oceanic crust etc… There tremendous amounts of substances can be brought into solution, changing at least locally the concentration equilibrium values of seawater. They are of course inorganic ions, but they can have important biological consequences. The buffering capacity of the world ocean is so high that only cosmic events can influence its composition.     

An experimental method for determining the frequency-dependent added mass and added mass moment of inertia for a floating body in heave and pitch motions

Most of the existing relevant materials have been obtained from experiments, in which evaluating the added mass at the resonant frequency corresponding to the peak of a frequency-response curve obtained from the “forced” vibration analysis is the most popular technique. In this paper, a simple experimental method was presented where the “free” vibration responses instead of the “forced” ones were used to determine the values of m_ah and I_ap. The main part of the experimental system is composed of a floating body (model) and a spring–shaft shaker. The “free” vibration of this main part was induced by imposing on it an initial displacement (and/or an initial velocity), and from the time histories of displacements information such as the “damped” natural frequencies, damping ratios, sectional added mass coefficients (C_V and C_P) were obtained. Since the displacements of the spring–shaft shaker are “translational” and those of the floating body due to pitch motions are “angular”, a technique for the transformation between the associated parameters of the two components of the main part was presented.     

Landscape-scale analysis of ecosystem risk and returns: A new tool for ICZM

Management of the coastal zone often focuses on “islands” of high value ecosystems, in terms of economic value or conservation. However, integrated management requires landscape-level analysis of all ecosystem values. The biodiversity portfolio analysis (BPA) method is derived from the logic used in share (equity) portfolio management in terms of balancing within a portfolio the returns with the risks. Optimising the returns from a share portfolio, or a suite of ecosystems in a landscape, is dependent on the relationship between the units in terms of risk and return. Three case studies are then presented to test the applicability of the BPA method at the international (North West Europe), regional (Durham Heritage Coast, UK) and local (part of South Uist, Outer Hebrides, UK) spatial scale. The Biodiversity Portfolio Analysis for NW Europe showed that risk and return were highly correlated in the studied Member States. The ranking of risk and return, with the highest first, was Ireland > UK > France=Netherlands > Belgium. For these Member States the risks to ecosystem service provision were positively correlated with GNI (r=0.97, P<0.01); suggesting that the higher the economic importance of coastal and marine resources in a Member State the more at risk the resources are. The regional and local case studies were more focussed on providing information on which to base Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) decision making; both case studies used stakeholder participation to determine risks and returns. The conclusions from these two case studies show how the BPA method can be useful in terms of setting ICZM priorities and in addressing local coastal issues. The BPA involves making a number of assumptions, however, it does provide coastal managers with a potential tool to strategically plan due to increased awareness of the interaction between the ecosystems in the portfolio.There is a need for such techniques, which involve stakeholder participation and which create objective outcomes, to support the implementation of ICZM.     

The optimum dimensions for a long-range, autonomous, deep-diving, underwater vehicle for oceanographic research

From the results of a parameter optimization process based on a “minimum feasible volume” criterion, it is shown that the optimum shape for a transatlantic, deep-diving, autonomous submersible is a “low drag” hull shape with a displaced volume of 4.4 m³, a length of 5.97 m and a maximum diameter of 1.33 m. Calculations show that a vehicle of these dimensions, travelling in a minimum drag “cruise” configuration at a depth of 3000 m, say, and at a velocity of 2.5 m/sec could have a maximum range of 7000 km provided the “hotel” power consumption is kept low.     

Advanced characterization of marine dissolved organic matter by combining reversed-phase liquid chromatography and FT-ICR-MS

Marine dissolved organic matter (DOM) was separated by reversed-phase (RP) liquid chromatography method and analyzed with fluorescence/absorption detection and Fourier transform ion cyclotron mass spectrometry (FT-ICR-MS). The three key characteristics of the RP method are: (a) The C18-RP column chosen provides enhanced separation when the aqueous phase is 100% buffer-free water, and it does not degrade over time; (b) the water eluent adjusted to pH 7 significantly improves the resolution of water soluble compounds; (c) the initial flow maintained at low levels improves the separation of polar compounds. In samples, containing “fresh” DOM, specific peaks were detected, which were absent in “old” DOM samples. The combination with size exclusion chromatography (SEC) also demonstrated the relation between polarity and molecular size of DOM. FT-ICR-MS was applied to evaluate the quality of separation on a molecular scale demonstrating that physico-chemical characteristics of DOM can be related to molecular formulas. Sample extracts were separated into 4 preparative fractions, and a large suite of the identified molecular formulas only occurred in specific fractions. This is an important basis for the application of further analytical techniques in order to perform a more target-oriented analysis aiming at the determination of source and process biomarkers for DOM.     

Seakeeping performance of a containment boom section in random waves and currents

The seakeeping characteristics of various boom geometries in irregular waves and currents are investigated. The response of a floating boom section on the open sea is a function of a number of parameters, such as boom geometry, distribution of mass, buoyancy/weight ratio, and wave and current characteristics. To understand the relationship between these design parameters more clearly, a series of regular and irregular wave tests were conducted with six different 1:4 scale models for three current velocities and six different wave conditions. To simplify the problem, only rigid boom sections consisting of a buoyancy cylinder and vertical skirt were used. In parallel with this experimental program, a numerical model for the responses of two-dimensional floating boom sections in small-amplitude waves is also developed. The numerical results are compared with our large-scale experimental results. The boom effectiveness on the open sea is evaluated based on the concept of “effective draft” and “effective freeboard” assuming that drainage and oversplashing failures are the prime mechanisms of containment failure. Using the present results, a guideline for the optimum design/selection of future booms is developed.