Application of the Takagi–Sugeno fuzzy system for combination forecasting of river flow in semiarid mountain regions

Because of high spatial heterogeneity and the degree of uncertainty about hydrological processes in large‐scale catchments of semiarid mountain areas, satisfactory forecasting of daily discharge is seldom available using a single model in many practical cases. In this paper the Takagi–Sugeno fuzzy system (TS) and the simple average method (SAM) are applied to combine forecasts of three individual models, namely, the simple linear model (SLM), the seasonally based linear perturbation model (LPM) and the nearest neighbour linear perturbation model (NNLPM) for modelling daily discharge, and the performance of modelling results is compared in five catchments of semiarid areas. It is found that the TS combination model gives good predictions. The results confirm that better prediction accuracy can be obtained by combining the forecasts of different models with the Takagi–Sugeno fuzzy system in semi‐arid mountain areas. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characteristics of preferential flow and groundwater discharge to Shingobee Lake,Minnesota, USA

Small‐scale heterogeneities and large changes in hydraulic gradient over short distances can create preferential groundwater flow paths that discharge to lakes. A 170 m² grid within an area of springs and seeps along the shore of Shingobee Lake, Minnesota, was intensively instrumented to characterize groundwater‐lake interaction within underlying organic‐rich soil and sandy glacial sediments. Seepage meters in the lake and piezometer nests, installed at depths of 0·5 and 1·0 m below the ground surface and lakebed, were used to estimate groundwater flow. Statistical analysis of hydraulic conductivity estimated from slug tests indicated a range from 21 to 4·8 × 10^?3 m day^?1 and small spatial correlation. Although hydraulic gradients are overall upward and toward the lake, surface water that flows onto an area about 2 m onshore results in downward flow and localized recharge. Most flow occurred within 3 m of the shore through more permeable pathways. Seepage meter and Darcy law estimates of groundwater discharge agreed well within error limits. In the small area examined, discharge decreases irregularly with distance into the lake, indicating that sediment heterogeneity plays an important role in the distribution of groundwater discharge. Temperature gradients showed some relationship to discharge, but neither temperature profiles nor specific electrical conductance could provide a more convenient method to map groundwater–lake interaction. These results suggest that site‐specific data may be needed to evaluate local water budget and to protect the water quality and quantity of discharge‐dominated lakes. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A natural tracer investigation of the hydrological regime of Spring Creek Springs, the largest submarine spring system in Florida

This work presents results from a nearly two-year monitoring of the hydrologic dynamics of the largest submarine spring system in Florida, Spring Creek Springs. During the summer of 2007 this spring system was observed to have significantly reduced flow due to persistent drought conditions. Our examination of the springs revealed that the salinity of the springs' waters had increased significantly, from 4 in 2004 to 33 in July 2007 with anomalous high radon (²²²Rn, t_1/2=3.8 days) in surface water concentrations indicating substantial saltwater intrusion into the local aquifer. During our investigation from August 2007 to May 2009 we deployed on an almost monthly basis a continuous radon-in-water measurement system and monitored the salinity fluctuations in the discharge area. To evaluate the springs' freshwater flux we developed three different models: two of them are based on water velocity measurements and either salinity or ²²²Rn in the associated surface waters as groundwater tracers. The third approach used only salinity changes within the spring area. The three models showed good agreement and the results confirmed that the hydrologic regime of the system is strongly correlated to local precipitation and water table fluctuations with higher discharges after major rain events and very low, even reverse flow during prolong droughts. High flow spring conditions were observed twice during our study, in the early spring and mid-late summer of 2008. However the freshwater spring flux during our observation period never reached that reported from a 1970s value of 4.9×10⁶ m³/day. The maximum spring flow was estimated at about 3.0×10⁶ m³/day after heavy precipitation in February-March 2008. As a result of this storm (total of 173 mm) the salinity in the spring area dropped from about 27 to 2 in only two days. The radon-in-water concentrations dramatically increased in parallel, from about 330 Bq/m³ to about 6600 Bq/m³. Such a rapid response suggests a direct connection between the deep and the surficial aquifers.     

Effects of riparian vegetation on stream bank subaerial processes in southwestern Virginia,USA

Riparian vegetation is frequently used for stream bank stabilization, but the effects of vegetation on subaerial processes have not been quantified. Subaerial processes, such as soil desiccation and freeze–thaw cycling, are climate‐related phenomena that deliver soil directly to the stream and make the banks more vulnerable to fluvial erosion by reducing soil strength. This study compares the impact of woody and herbaceous vegetation on subaerial processes by examining soil temperature and moisture regimes in vegetated stream banks. Soil temperature and water tension were measured at six paired field sites in southwestern Virginia, USA, for one year. Results showed that stream banks with herbaceous vegetation had higher soil temperatures and a greater diurnal temperature range during the summer compared to forested stream banks. Daily average summer soil water tension was 13 to 57 per cent higher under herbaceous vegetation than under woody vegetation, probably due to evapotranspiration from the shallow herbaceous root system on the bank. In contrast to summer conditions, the deciduous forest buffers provided little protection for stream banks during the winter: the forested stream banks experienced diurnal temperature ranges two to three times greater than stream banks under dense herbaceous cover and underwent as many as eight times the number of freeze–thaw cycles. During the winter, the stream banks under the deciduous forests were exposed to solar heating and night time cooling, which increased the diurnal soil temperature range and the occurrence of freeze–thaw cycling. Study results also indicated that freeze–thaw cycling and soil desiccation were greater on the upper stream bank due to thermal and moisture regulation of the lower bank by the stream. Therefore, subaerial erosion and soil weakening may be greater on the upper stream banks. Additional research is needed on the influence of subaerial processes on both subaerial and fluvial erosion. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Relative contributions of stream concentration,stream discharge and shoreline load to base cation trends in Red Chalk and Harp lakes,south‐central Ontario,Canada

We evaluated the importance and contributions of changes in stream base cation concentration, stream discharge and lake shoreline load to changes in base cation concentrations in two small inland lakes in south‐central Ontario. The shoreline load from ungauged drainage areas was calculated with a mass balance equation. An evaluation method based on the partial Mann–Kendall test quantified the relative contributions of these three explanatory drivers to the observed trends in lake concentration of Ca, K, Mg and Na. Over a 29‐year period (1978–2006) at Red Chalk and Harp lakes, declines in stream concentration and discharge were correlated with the declines in lake concentrations of all base cations (except for Na in Harp Lake), with contributions of 21–81% from stream concentration and 12–58% from discharge, whereas the shoreline load had little contribution to observed trends. The observed unusual increase in Na concentration at Harp Lake was correlated with the increase in stream Na concentration and additional load from road salts, with the shoreline load contributing a substantial 37%. These results may be applicable to numerous inland lakes with similar site conditions, including lakes found on the Canadian Shield. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water–air temperature relationships in a Devon river system and the role of flow

The nature of the water–air temperature relationship, and its moderation by discharge, were investigated for catchments ranging in size from 2·1 to 601 km² in the Exe basin, Devon, UK and for data relating to hourly, daily and weekly time bases. The sensitivity and explanatory power of simple water–air temperature regression models based on hourly data were improved by incorporation of a lag, which increased with catchment size, although relationships became more sensitive and less scattered as the time base of data increased from hourly to weekly mean values. Significant departures from linearity in water–air temperature relationships were evident for hourly, but not for daily mean or weekly mean, data. A clear tendency for relationships between water and air temperatures to be stronger and more sensitive for flows below median levels was apparent, and multiple regression analysis also revealed water temperature to be inversely related to discharge for all catchments and time‐scales. However, discharge had a greater impact in accounting for water temperature variation at shorter time‐scales and in larger catchments. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Controls of concentration and loadings of major ions in a stream draining intermediate igneous rocks

Some 300 measurements under a wide range of flow conditions were used to construct regression models to predict concentrations of six major ions in a moorland stream draining intermediate-basic lavas in Scotland. Ca, Mg, and HCO₃ were very closely related to discharge in log-log regressions (r² > 90 percent). Na and Cl required inclusion of seasonal functions for best prediction (r₂ = 76 per cent in both cases). K concentrations were predicted from discharge, direction of stage change, and a seasonal function. Annual losses of Ca, Mg, and HCO₃ were 252, 36, and 871 kg ha ^?1, substantially larger than those for upland catchments on acid rocks. Losses of K, Na, and Cl were of a similar order to other upland sites.     

Responses of water erosion to rainfall extremes and vegetation types in a loess semiarid hilly area,NW China

Rainfall extremes (RE) become more variable and stochastic in the context of climate change, increasing uncertainties and risks of water erosion in the real world. Vegetation also plays a key role in soil erosion dynamics. Responses of water erosion to RE and vegetation, however, remain unclear. In this article, on the basis of the data measured on 15 plots (area: 10 m × 10 m and 10 m × 5 m) and the definition of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on rainfall extremes, 158 natural rainfall events from 1986 to 2005 were analysed, and rain depth and maximal 30‐min intensity (MI₃₀) were used to define RE. Then, water erosion process under RE and five vegetation types (spring wheat, alfalfa, sea buckthorn, Chinese pine, and wheatgrass) were studied in a key loess semiarid hilly area, NW China. The following findings were made: (1) The minimal thresholds of depth and MI₃₀ for defining RE were determined as 40·11 mm and 0·55 mm/min, respectively. Among the studied rainfall events, there were four events with both the variables exceeding the thresholds (REI), five events with depths exceeding 40·11 mm (REII), and four events with MI₃₀ exceeding 0·55 mm/min (REIII). Therefore, not only extreme rainstorm, but also events with lower intensities and long durations were considered as RE. Moreover, RE occurred mostly in July and August, with a probability of 46 and 31%, respectively. (2) Extreme events, especially REI, in general caused severer soil‐water loss. Mean extreme runoff and erosion rates were 2·68 and 53·15 times of mean ordinary rates, respectively. The effect of each event on water erosion, however, becomes uncertain as a result of the variations of RE and vegetation. (3) The buffering capacities of vegetation on RE were generally in the order of sea buckthorn > wheatgrass > Chinese pine > alfalfa > spring wheat. In particular, sea buckthorn reduced runoff and erosion effectively after 3–4 years of plantation. Therefore, to fight against water erosion shrubs like sea buckthorn are strongly recommended as pioneer species in such areas. On the contrary, steep cultivation (spring wheat on slopes), however, should be avoided, because of its high sensitivities to RE. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of urbanization and stormwater control measures on streamflows in the vicinity of Clarksburg,Maryland, USA

Understanding the efficacy of revised watershed management methods is important to mitigating the impacts of urbanization on streamflow. We evaluated the influence of land use change, primarily as urbanization, and stormwater control measures on the relationship between precipitation and stream discharge over an 8‐year period for five catchments near Clarksburg, Montgomery County, Maryland, USA. A unit‐hydrograph model based on a temporal transfer function was employed to account for and standardize temporal variation in rainfall pattern, and properly apportion rainfall to streamflow at different time lags. From these lagged relationships, we quantified a correction to the precipitation time series to achieve a hydrograph that showed good agreement between precipitation and discharge records. Positive corrections appeared to include precipitation events that were of limited areal extent and therefore not captured by our rain gages. Negative corrections were analysed for potential causal relationships. We used mixed‐model statistical techniques to isolate different sources of variance as drivers that mediate the rainfall–runoff dynamic before and after management. Seasonal periodicity mediated rainfall–runoff relationships, and land uses (i.e. agriculture, natural lands, wetlands and stormwater control measures) were statistically significant predictors of precipitation apportionment to stream discharge. Our approach is one way to evaluate actual effectiveness of management efforts in the face of complicating circumstances and could be paired with cost data to understand economic efficiency or life cycle aspects of watershed management. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Hydrogeology of desert springs in the Panamint Range,California, USA: Identifying the sources and amount of recharge that support spring flow

Despite its location in the rain shadow of the southern Sierra Nevada, the Panamint Range hosts a complex mountain groundwater system supporting numerous springs which have cultural, historical, and ecological importance. The sources of recharge that support these quintessential desert springs remain poorly quantified since very little hydrogeological research has been completed in the Panamint Range. Here we address the following questions: (i) what is the primary source of recharge that supports springs in the Panamint Range (snowmelt or rainfall), (ii) where is the recharge occurring (mountain-block, mountain-front, or mountain-system) and (iii) how much recharge occurs in the Panamint Range? We answer questions (i) and (ii) using stable isotopes measured in spring waters and precipitation, and question (iii) using a chloride mass-balance approach which is compared to a derivation of the Maxey–Eakin equation. Our dataset of the stable isotopic composition (δ¹⁸O and δ²H) of precipitation is short (1.5 years), but analyses on spring water samples indicate that high-elevation snowmelt is the dominant source of recharge for these springs, accounting for 57 (±9) to 79 (±12) percent of recharge. Recharge from rainfall is small but not insignificant. Mountain-block recharge is the dominant recharge mechanism. However, two basin springs emerging along the western mountain-front of the Panamint Range in Panamint Valley appear to be supported by mountain-front and mountain-system recharge, while Tule Spring (a basin spring emerging at the terminus of the bajada on the eastern side of the Panamint Range) appears to be supported by mountain-front recharge. Calculated recharge rates range from 19 mm year⁻¹ (elevations < 1000 mrsl) to 388 mm year⁻¹ (elevations > 1000 mrsl). The average annual recharge is approximately 91 mm year⁻¹ (equivalent to 19.4 percent of total annual precipitation). We infer that the springs in the Panamint Range (and their associated ecosystems) are extremely vulnerable to changes in snow cover associated with climate change. They are heavily dependent on snowmelt recharge from a relatively thin annual snowpack. These findings have important implications for the vulnerability of desert springs worldwide.     

Abrupt change of runoff and its major driving factors in Haihe River Catchment, China

Runoff in Haihe River Catchment of China is steadily declining due to climate change and human activity. Determining abrupt changes in runoff could enhance identification of the main driving factors for the sudden changes. In this study, the sequential Mann–Kendall test analysis is used to determine abrupt changes in runoff in eight sub-catchments of Haihe River Catchment, while trend analysis via the traditional Mann–Kendall test for the period 1960–1999 is used to identify the basic trend of precipitation and runoff. The results suggest an insignificant change in precipitation and a significant decline in runoff in five of the eight sub-catchments. For most of the sub-catchments, abrupt changes in runoff occurred in 1978–1985. Through correlation comparisons for precipitation and runoff for the periods prior to and after abrupt runoff changes, human activity, rather than climatic change, is identified as the main driving factor of runoff decline. It is also noted that abrupt decline in runoff was actually at the beginning of China’s 1978–1985 land reform. Given that the land reform motivated farmers to productively manage their reallocated lands, agricultural water use therefore increased. Hence percent agricultural land is analyzed in relation to land use/cover pattern for the late 1970s and early 1980s. The analysis shows that when cultivated farmland exceeds 25% of a sub-catchment area, an abrupt decline in runoff occurs. It is therefore concluded that high percent agricultural land and related agricultural water use are the most probable driving factors of runoff decline in the catchment.     

Estimation of suspended sediment loads in a seasonal stream in the wet‐dry tropics,Northern Territory,Australia

One year of instantaneous suspended sediment concentration, C, and instantaneous discharge, Q, data collected at Ngarradj downstream of the Jabiluka mine site indicate that the use of a simple C–Q rating curve is not a reliable method for estimating suspended sediment loads from the Ngarradj catchment. The C–Q data are not only complicated by hysteresis effects within the rising and falling stages of individual events, but also by variable depletion of available suspended sediment through multipeaked runoff events. Parameter values were fitted to an event‐based suspended sediment load–Q relationship as an alternative to the C–Q relationship. Total suspended sediment load and Q data for 10 observed events in the Ngarradj stream catchment were used to fit parameter values to a suspended sediment load–Q relationship, using (a) log–log regression and (b) iterative parameter fitting techniques. A more reliable and statistically significant prediction of suspended sediment load from the Ngarradj catchment is obtained using an event‐based suspended sediment load–Q relationship. Fitting parameters to the event‐based suspended sediment load–Q relationship using iterative techniques better predicts long‐term suspended sediment loads compared with log–log regression techniques. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Wavelet analysis of inter‐annual variability in the runoff regimes of glacial and nival stream catchments,Bow Lake,Alberta

Continuous wavelet analyses of hourly time series of air temperature, stream discharge, and precipitation are used to compare the seasonal and inter‐annual variability in hydrological regimes of the two principal streams feeding Bow Lake, Banff National Park, Alberta: the glacial stream draining the Wapta Icefields, and the snowmelt‐fed Bow River. The goal is to understand how water sources and flow routing differ between the two catchments. Wavelet spectra and cross‐wavelet spectra were determined for air temperature and discharge from the two streams for summers (June–September) 1997–2000, and for rainfall and discharge for the summers of 1999 and 2000. The diurnal signal of the glacial runoff was orders of magnitude higher in 1998 than in other years, indicating that significant ice exposure and the development of channelized glacial drainage occurred as a result of the 1997–98 El Niño conditions. Early retreat of the snowpack in 1997 and 1998 led to a significant summer‐long input of melt runoff from a small area of ice cover in the Bow River catchment; but such inputs were not apparent in 1999 and 2000, when snow cover was more extensive. Rainfall had a stronger influence on runoff and followed quicker flow paths in the Bow River catchment than in the glacial catchment. Snowpack thickness and catchment size were the primary controls on the phase relationship between temperature and discharge at diurnal time scales. Wavelet analysis is a fast and effective means to characterize runoff, temperature, and precipitation regimes and their interrelationships and inter‐annual variability. The technique is effective at identifying inter‐annual and seasonal changes in the relative contributions of different water sources to runoff, and changes in the time required for routing of diurnal meltwater pulses through a catchment. However, it is less effective at identifying changes/differences in the type of the flow routing (e.g. overland flow versus through flow) between or within catchments. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial organization of groundwater dynamics and streamflow response from different hydropedological units in a montane catchment

Groundwater dynamics play an important role in runoff generation and hydrologic connectivity between hillslopes and streams. We monitored a network of 14 shallow groundwater (GW) wells in a 3.2 km² experimental catchment in the Scottish Highlands. Wells were placed in three contrasting landscape units with different hydropedological characteristics and different topographic positions relative to the stream network, encompassing a catena sequence from freely draining podzols on steeper hillslopes to increasingly thick peats (histosols) in the valley bottom riparian zone. GW dynamics were characterized by statistical analyses of water table fluctuations, estimation of variabilities in lag times and hysteresis response in relation to streamflow. The three landscape units had distinct storage–discharge relationships and threshold responses with a certain GW level above which lateral flow dominates. Steeper hillslopes with freely draining podzols were characterized by GW fluctuations of around 150 cm in the underlying drift. GW usually showed peak response up to several hours after stream flow. During persistent wet periods the water table remained in the soil profile for short spells and connected shallow flow paths in the near surface horizons to the lower hillslopes. In the peaty gleys in the lower foot slopes, GW was characterized by a water table generally within 20 cm of the soil surface, though at some locations this could fall to 50 cm in extreme dry periods. GW responses were usually a few hours prior to the stream responses. In riparian peats, the water table was also usually less than 20 cm deep and responded several hours before the stream. These riparian peat soils remain at, or very near saturation with near‐continuous GW–surface water connectivity. In contrast, the steeper slopes remain disconnected for prolonged periods and need large recharge events to overcome storage thresholds. GW responses vary seasonally, and landscape controls on the spatial organization of GW dynamics are strongest at low flows and in small events. During wettest periods, limited storage and extensive saturation weaken such controls. This study demonstrated that montane catchments can have highly dynamic GW stores, which are important in generating both storm flows and baseflows. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effects of rock uplift and rock resistance on river morphology in a subduction zone forearc,Oregon, USA

Relationships between riverbed morphology, concavity, rock type and rock uplift rate are examined to independently unravel the contribution of along-strike variations in lithology and rates of vertical deformation to the topographic relief of the Oregon coastal mountains. Lithologic control on river profile form is reflected by convexities and knickpoints in a number of longitudinal profiles and by general trends of concavity as a function of lithology. Volcanic and sedimentary rocks are the principal rock types underlying the northern Oregon Coast Ranges (between 46°30′ and 45°N) where mixed bedrock–alluvial channels dominate. Average concavity, θ, is 0·57 in this region. In the alluviated central Oregon Coast Ranges (between 45° and 44°N) values of concavity are, on average, the highest (θ = 0·82). South of 44°N, however, bedrock channels are common and θ = 0·73. Mixed bedrock–alluvial channels characterize rivers in the Klamath Mountains (from 43°N south; θ = 0·64). Rock uplift rates of ≥0·5 mm a⁻¹, mixed bedrock–alluvial channels, and concavities of 0·53–0·70 occur within the northernmost Coast Ranges and Klamath Mountains. For rivers flowing over volcanic rocks θ = 0·53, and θ = 0·72 for reaches crossing sedimentary rocks. Whereas channel type and concavity generally co-vary with lithology along much of the range, rivers between 44·5° and 43°N do not follow these trends. Concavities are generally greater than 0·70, alluvial channels are common, and river profiles lack knickpoints between 44·5° and 44°N, despite the fact that lithology is arguably invariant. Moreover, rock uplift rates in this region vary from low, ≤0·5 mm a⁻¹, to subsidence (<0 mm a⁻¹). These observations are consistent with models of transient river response to a decrease in uplift rate. Conversely, the rivers between 44° and 43°N have similar concavities and flow on the same mapped bedrock unit as the central region, but have bedrock channels and irregular longitudinal profiles, suggesting the river profiles reflect a transient response to an increase in uplift rate. If changes in rock uplift rate explain the differences in river profile form and morphology, it is unlikely that rock uplift and erosion are in steady state in the Oregon coastal mountains. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variations in dissolved CO2 and CH4 in a first‐order stream and catchment: an investigation of soil–stream linkages

Spatial and seasonal variations in CO₂ and CH₄ concentrations in streamwater and adjacent soils were studied at three sites on Brocky Burn, a headwater stream draining a peatland catchment in upland Britain. Concentrations of both gases in the soil atmosphere were significantly higher in peat and riparian soils than in mineral soils. Peat and riparian soil CO₂ concentrations varied seasonally, showing a positive correlation with air and soil temperature. Streamwater CO₂ concentrations at the upper sampling site, which mostly drained deep peats, varied from 2·8 to 9·8 mg l^?1 (2·5 to 11·9 times atmospheric saturation) and decreased markedly downstream. Temperature‐related seasonal variations in peat and riparian soil CO₂ were reflected in the stream at the upper site, where 77% of biweekly variation was explained by an autoregressive model based on: (i) a negative log‐linear relationship with stream flow; (ii) a positive linear relationship with soil CO₂ concentrations in the shallow riparian wells; and (iii) a negative linear relationship with soil CO₂ concentrations in the shallow peat wells, with a significant 2‐week lag term. These relationships changed markedly downstream, with an apparent decrease in the soil–stream linkage and a switch to a positive relationship between stream flow and stream CO₂. Streamwater CH₄ concentrations also declined sharply downstream, but were much lower (<0·01 to 0·12 mg l^?1) than those of CO₂ and showed no seasonal variation, nor any relationship with soil atmospheric CH₄ concentrations. However, stream CH₄ was significantly correlated with stream flow at the upper site, which explained 57% of biweekly variations in dissolved concentrations. We conclude that stream CO₂ can be a useful integrative measure of whole catchment respiration, but only at sites where the soil–stream linkage is strong. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological behaviour of a small catchment in the dehesa landuse system (Extremadura, SW Spain)

Investigations of the hydrological processes operating in a small experimental catchment representative of the dehesa ecosystem were carried out. The dehesa constitutes a system of agro-silvo-pastoral landuse, which is characterized by a Mediterranean, semi-arid climate. The study includes an analysis of the relationships between rainfall, soil water content and discharge, as well as the establishment of the annual water budget. The results demonstrate a complex hydrological response. The relationships between the factors involved and the operating processes are difficult to explain because of the decisive role played by the valley bottoms. These areas typically possess a sediment fill, and contrast with the shallow soils developed on the hillslopes. Genesis and quantity of runoff (Hortonian or saturation) measured at the outlet depend on the antecedent moisture conditions of the valley bottoms because of their water-retention capacity. Annual runoff coefficients are similar to those reported from other semi-arid areas. The analysis of the annual water budget shows that rainfall is positively related with both actual evapotranspiration and discharge.     

Analysis of landslide frequencies and characteristics in a natural system,coastal British Columbia

Two hundred and one debris slides and debris ?ows were analyzed in a 286 km² study area on the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. The study area remains essentially untouched by humans and therefore affords a natural setting in which to examine slope processes. Landslides were identi?ed and characterized on aerial photographs from 1:15 000 to 1:31 680, and were then mapped and transferred to a GIS for analysis. Based on detailed landslide surveys, we propose a new method to accurately determine volume of landslides of this type by measured total area. Results indicate average denudation rates of 56 m³ y^?1 km^?2, and higher natural rates of failure than analogous regions in coastal British Columbia. In contrast, the landslide rates are substantially less than those from forested watersheds. Landslide distribution is spatially clustered in air photograph epochs, and we propose intense storm cells within regional events as the causal mechanism. Further, failures occurred preferentially over the West Coast Crystalline Complex (by 1·4 times), a metamorphic assemblage of gabbros, schists and amphibolites, but 1·5 times less often over the Island Plutonic Suite, a granitic intrusive formation. The former result represents a new ?nding, while the latter corroborates ?ndings of previous authors. We examined magnitude–frequency relationships of the data set and present for the ?rst time a strong argument that the rollover effect is not merely an artefact, but is instead a consequence of the physical characteristics of the landslides themselves. We subsequently analyzed magnitude–frequency relationships from two other complete data sets from coastal British Columbia and produced a family of curves corroborating this result. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.