Study of the flood control scheduling scheme for the Three Gorges Reservoir in a catastrophic flood

The Three Gorges Project is the world's largest water conservancy project. According to the design standards for the 1,000‐year flood, flood diversion areas in the Jingjiang reach of the Yangtze River must be utilized to ensure the safety of the Jingjiang area and the city of Wuhan. However, once these areas are used, the economic and life loss in these areas may be very great. Therefore, it is vital to reduce this loss by developing a scheme that reduces the use of the flood diversion areas through flood regulation by the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), under the premise of ensuring the safety of the Three Gorges Dam. For a 1,000‐year flood on the basis of a highly destructive flood in 1954, this paper evaluates scheduling schemes in which flood diversion areas are or are not used. The schemes are simulated based on 2.5‐m resolution reservoir topography and an optimized model of dynamic capacity flood regulation. The simulation results show the following. (a) In accord with the normal flood‐control regulation discharge, the maximum water level above the dam should be not more than 175 m, which ensures the safety of the dam and reservoir area. However, it is necessary to utilize the flood diversion areas within the Jingjiang area, and flood discharge can reach 2.81 billion m³. (b) In the case of relying on the TGR to impound floodwaters independently rather than using the flood diversion areas, the maximum water level above the dam reaches 177.35 m, which is less than the flood check level of 180.4 m to ensure the safety of the Three Gorges Dam. The average increase of the TGR water level in the Chongqing area is not more than 0.11 m, which indicates no significant effect on the upstream reservoir area. Comparing the various scheduling schemes, when the flood diversion areas are not used, it is believed that the TGR can execute safe flood control for a 1,000‐year flood, thereby greatly reducing flood damage.     

Hydrological risk analysis of dam overtopping using bivariate statistical approach: a case study from Geheyan Reservoir,China

Hydrological risk analysis is essential and provides useful information for dam safety management and decision-making. This study presents the application of bivariate flood frequency analysis to risk analysis of dam overtopping for Geheyan Reservoir in China. The dependence between the flood peak and volume is modelled with the copula function. A Monte Carlo procedure is conducted to generate 100,000 random flood peak-volume pairs, which are subsequently transformed to corresponding design flood hydrographs (DFHs) by amplifying the selected annual maximum flood hydrographs (AMFHs). These synthetic DFHs are routed through the reservoir to obtain the frequency curve of maximum water level and assess the risk of dam overtopping. Sensitive analysis is performed to investigate the influence of different AMFH shapes and correlation coefficients of flood peak and volume on estimated overtopping risks. The results show that synthetic DFH with AMFH shape characterized by a delayed time to peak results in higher risk, and therefore highlight the importance of including a range of possible AMFH shapes in the dam risk analysis. It is also demonstrated that the overtopping risk is increased as the correlation coefficient of flood peak and volume increases and underestimated in the independence case (i.e. traditional univariate approach), while overestimated in the full dependence case. The bivariate statistical approach based on copulas can effectively capture the actual dependence between flood peak and volume, which should be preferred in the dam risk analysis practice.     

Development of design flood hydrographs using probability density functions

Probability density functions (PDFs) are used to fit the shape of hydrographs and have been popularly used for the development of synthetic unit hydrographs by many hydrologists. Nevertheless, modelling the shapes of continuous stream flow hydrographs, which are probabilistic in nature, is rare. In the present study, a novel approach was followed to model the shape of stream flow hydrographs using PDF and subsequently to develop design flood hydrographs for various return periods. Four continuous PDFs, namely, two parameter Beta, Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal, were employed to fit the shape of the hydrographs of 22 years at a site of Brahmani River in eastern India. The shapes of the observed and PDF fitted hydrographs were compared and root mean square errors, error of peak discharge (EQ_P) and error of time to peak (ET_P) were computed. The best‐fitted shape and scale parameters of all PDFs were subjected to frequency analysis and the quartiles corresponding to 20‐, 50‐, 100‐ and 200‐year were estimated. The estimated parameters of each return period were used to develop the flood hydrographs for 20‐, 50‐, 100‐ and 200‐year return periods. The peak discharges of the developed design flood hydrographs were compared with the design discharges estimated from the frequency analysis of 22 years of annual peak discharges at that site. Lognormal‐produced peak discharge was very close to the estimated design discharge in case of 20‐year flood hydrograph. On the other hand, peak discharge obtained using the Weibull PDF had close agreement with the estimated design discharge obtained from frequency analysis in case of 50‐, 100‐ and 200‐year return periods. The ranking of the PDFs based on estimation of peak of design flood hydrograph for 50‐, 100‐ and 200‐year return periods was found to have the following order: Weibull > Beta > Lognormal > Gamma. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A semi-analytical method for predicting the outflow hydrograph due to dam-break in natural valleys

The paper presents a semi-analytical method for predicting the flow rate hydrograph due to a hypothetical sudden and total dam failure in a natural valley. The method generalizes the approach proposed by Hunt for the dam-break problem in a rectangular frictionless sloping channel to a valley with a cross-section area expressed by a power-law function of water depth, in order to take into account the most common shapes of natural valleys. The parameters of the deriving model can be set by exploiting data usually available concerning the dam section geometry and the reservoir storage-depth curve. The application of the technique to three different reservoirs is discussed. The results show that the flow rate hydrographs obtained at the dam site agree with the ones calculated by means of a finite volume numerical code based on two-dimensional shallow water equations. The method requires moderate computational and data collecting effort, so it can be regarded as a useful alternative to other procedures commonly adopted in the practice.     

Vectorized simulation of groundwater flow and contaminant transport using analytic element method and random walk particle tracking

Groundwater contaminant transport processes are usually simulated by the finite difference (FDM) or finite element methods (FEM). However, they are susceptible to numerical dispersion for advection‐dominated transport. In this study, a numerical dispersion‐free coupled flow and transport model is developed by combining the analytic element method (AEM) with random walk particle tracking (RWPT). As AEM produces continuous velocity distribution over the entire aquifer domain, it is more suitable for RWPT than FDM/finite element methods. Using the AEM solutions, RWPT tracks all the particles in a vectorized manner, thereby improving the computational efficiency. The present model performs a convolution integral of the response of an impulse contaminant injection to generate concentration distributions due to a permanent contaminant source. The RWPT model is validated with an available analytical solution and compared to an FDM solution, the RWPT model more accurately replicates the analytical solution. Further, the coupled AEM‐RWPT model has been applied to simulate the flow and transport in hypothetical and field aquifer problems. The results are compared with the FDM solutions and found to be satisfactory. The results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method.     

Three-dimensional non-cohesive earthen dam breach model. Part 2: Validation and applications

Our proposed three-dimensional dam breach model is tested using one field test from the European Community funded IMPACT project. Results show that this three-dimensional model accurately predicts the peak breach discharge and final breach width for this case. It is shown that the three-dimensional model is capable of simulating the breaches that develop in different locations along a hypothetical long non-cohesive dam while accounting for variations in the natural valley topography, including symmetrical and asymmetrical settings. Our results show that both the breach location and reservoir shape have a significant effect on the peak breach discharge and the outflow hydrograph shape. Different inflow hydrographs were found not to significantly change the peak breach discharge rate for the hypothetical reservoir and spillway. Comparisons with laboratory and field dam breach tests and one historically breached dam show that the real shape of the breach channel during the breach process is successfully modeled.     

Real‐time monitoring and estimation of the discharge of flash floods in a steep mountain catchment

Synchronously and accurately estimating the flood discharges and dynamic changes in the fluid density is essential for hydraulic analysis and forecasting of flash floods, as well as for risk assessment. However, such information is rare for steep mountain catchments, especially in regions that are hotspots for earthquakes. Therefore, six hydrological monitoring sites were established in the main stream and tributaries of the 78.3‐km² Longxi River catchment, an affected region of the Wenchuan earthquake region in China. Direct real‐time monitoring equipment was installed to measure the flow depths, velocities, and fluid total pressures of the flood hydrographs. On the basis of field measurements, real‐time mean cross‐sectional velocities during the flood hydrographs could be derived from easily obtainable parameters: cross‐sectional maximum velocities and the calibrated dimensionless parameter K_h . Real‐time discharges were determined on the basis of a noncontact method to establish the effective rating curves of this mountainous stream, ranging from 1.46 to 386.34 m³/s with the root mean square errors of ≤10.22 m³/s. Compared with the traditional point‐velocity method and empirical Manning's formula, the proposed noncontact method was reliable and safe for monitoring whole flood hydrographs. Additionally, the real‐time fluid density during the flood hydrographs was calculated on the basis of the direct monitoring parameters for fluid total pressures and water depths. During the flood hydrograph, transient flow behaviour with higher fluid density generally occurred downstream during the flood peak periods when the flow was in the supercritical flow regime. The observed behaviour greatly increased the threat of damage to infrastructure and human life near the river. Thus, it is important to accurately estimate flood discharge and identify for fluid densities so that people at risk from an impending flash flood are given reliable, advanced warning.     

Influence of topographic,geomorphic, and hydrologic variables on beaver dam height and persistence in the intermountain western United States

Stream ecosystems can be dramatically altered by dam-building activities of North American beaver (Castor canadensis). The extent to which beavers’ ecosystem engineering alters riverscapes is driven by the density, longevity, and size (i.e. height and length) of the dams constructed. In comparison to the relative ubiquity of beaver dams on the landscape, there is a scarcity of data describing dam heights. We collected data describing dam height and dam condition (i.e. damaged or intact) of 500 beaver dams via rapid field survey, differentiating between primary and secondary dams and associating each dam with a beaver dam complex. With these data, we examined the influence of beaver dam type (primary/secondary), drainage area, streamflow, stream power, valley bottom width, and HUC12 watershed on beaver dam height with linear regression and the probability that a beaver dam was damaged with logistic regression. On average, primary dams were 0.46 m taller than secondary dams; 15% of observed dams were primary and 85% secondary. Dam type accounted for 21% of dam height variation (p <0.0001). Slope (p = 0.0107), discharge (p = 0.0029), and drainage area (p = 0.0399) also affected dam height, but each accounted for less than 3% of dam height variation. The average number of dams in a dam complex was 6.1 (SD ± 4.5) and ranged from 1 to 21. The watershed a beaver dam was located in accounted for the most variability (17.8%) in the probability that a beaver dam was damaged, which was greater than the variability explained by any multiple logistic regression model. These results indicate that temporally dynamic variables are important influencers of dam longevity and that beaver dam ecology is a primary factor influencing beaver dam height. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improved understanding of spatio‐temporal controls on regional scale groundwater flooding using hydrograph analysis and impulse response functions

Controls on the spatio‐temporal extent of groundwater flooding are poorly understood, despite the long duration of groundwater flood events and distinct social and economic impacts. We developed a novel approach using statistical analysis of groundwater level hydrographs and impulse response functions (IRFs) and applied it to the 2013/2014 Chalk groundwater flooding in the English Lowlands. We proposed a standardized index of groundwater flooding which we calculated for monthly groundwater levels for 26 boreholes in the Chalk. We grouped these standardized series using k‐means cluster analysis and cross‐correlated the cluster centroids with the Standardized Precipitation Index accumulated over time intervals between 1 and 60 months. This analysis reveals 2 spatially coherent groups of standardized hydrographs that responded to precipitation over different timescales. We estimated IRF models of the groundwater level response to effective precipitation for 3 boreholes in each group. The IRF models corroborate the Standardized Precipitation Index analysis showing different response functions between the groups. We applied identical effective precipitation inputs to each of the IRF models and observed differences between the hydrographs from each group. It is suggested this is due to the hydrogeological properties of the Chalk and of overlying relatively low permeability superficial deposits (recent unconsolidated sediments overlying the bedrock, such as clays and tills), which are extensive over 1 of the groups. The overarching controls on groundwater flood response are concluded to be a complex combination of antecedent conditions, rainfall, and catchment hydrogeological properties. These controls should be taken into consideration when anticipating and managing future groundwater flood events. The approach presented is generic and parsimonious and can be easily applied where sufficient groundwater level and rainfall data are available.     

Numerical simulation of catastrophic flood: the case study of hypothetical failure of the Bielkowo hydro-power plant reservoir

The numerical modeling of flood wave propagation following the hypothetical breaks of the embankments of the Bielkowo hydro-power plant storage reservoir (Kolbudy II Reservoir) on the Radunia River in Poland has been presented. The results of computations were used to estimate the parameters of the flood waves, which are indispensable for the flood zone determination and mapping and then for the flood risk analysis. When estimating the reach and area of the inundation, related to the embankments failures, digital terrain model, and mathematical model of flood wave propagation are necessary. For the numerical simulations of flood, the mathematical model of free surface, two-dimensional unsteady water flow was applied. Four locations of potential breaks of the reservoir embankments were considered. The computed flood zones were presented on the flood hazard maps. The maps have been used by the local authorities and the dam owner to manage the flood risk related to hydro-power plants operations on the Radunia River. This type of research has been done for the first time for the water plant managed by the ENERGA Elektrownie Straszyn.     

LONG-TERM EFFECTS OF THE GEZHOUBA PROJECT ON FLOOD PROPAGATION IN THE YANGTZE RIVER

A l-D numerical model of unsteady flow for river channel has been developed in the paPer. Based ontoPograPhy of l980 and field data of a flood occurred on July l2-25, l981 (,'8l.7" flood), caIculation ofthe "8l.7" flood rouhng has been imPlemented as calibration of the model. Using the same hydrographsof,'8l.7" flood and different toPograPhies of l980 and l993 respectively, processes and profiles ofhydrograps, variations and featores of flood traVel along the Yichang-Jianli river reaches h…     

The high content of polyunsaturated fatty acids in Nannochloropsis limnetica (Eustigmatophyceae) and its implication for food web interactions, freshwater aquaculture and biotechnology

In the eustigmatophycean Nannochloropsis limnetica the content of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) is extremely high in comparison to different planktonic green algal taxa in freshwater ecosystems. The sums of n-6 and n-3 fatty acids in N. limnetica were ten-fold higher than in the other picoplankton Choricystis minor and Pseudodictyosphaerium jurisii, and higher than in the nanoplanktonic green algae Chlorella vulgaris, Monoraphidium neglectum and Scenedesmus obtusiusculus. The content of fatty acids in N. limnetica was highly variable under different culture conditions. The highest concentrations of PUFA in N. limnetica were found in non-aerated suspension cultures, with a high content of phosphate (40 mg l⁻¹ K₂HPO₄) in the culture medium: linoleic acid 22.19 mg g⁻¹ DW, arachidonic acid 10.52 mg g⁻¹ DW, and eicosapentaenoic acid 55.56 mg g⁻¹ DW. N. limnetica represent a high-quality food resource in freshwater food chains. Furthermore, cultures of this eustigmatophycean alga have a high potential for use in biotechnology and aquaculture.     

Continuous simulation for computing design hydrographs for water structures

The contribution discusses the problems with modelling design floods for water structures. The statistical extrapolations of observed flood series of, for example, 80 years “only” to the annual exceedance probability AEP = 0.01 is difficult due to the large variability in extreme values. For large dams, however, the AEP = 0.001 or 0.0001 is required. Most of the uncertainties in hydrological modelling are epistemic (uncertainties in model structure, model parameters, inputs, calibration data, and in measurements) and moreover some measurements can be disinformative. With powerful computers, it is now possible to produce very long series (100 to100,000 years in hourly time step) using precipitation and temperatures computed with a weather model. Within the framework of the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) many (thousands) of such continuous simulations are produced and compared to the observed historical data. According to Keith Beven's Manifesto for the equifinality thesis the differences between modelled and observed values should not be larger than some limits of acceptability based on what is known about errors in the input and output observations used for model evaluation (e.g., for flow the current metering data are used). The unacceptable realisations are rejected. We have been working with the frequency version of TOPMODEL in various versions according to the unique characteristics of each catchment. Design hydrographs for water structures are then extracted from the acceptable realisations. The continuous simulation with uncertainty estimation seems nowadays the most promising method of computing design hydrographs for important water structures, even if issues associated with epistemic uncertainty of model assumptions remain.     

Flood routing based on diffusion wave equation using mixing cell method

A one-dimensional non-linear diffusion wave equation is derived from the Saint Venant equations with neglect of the inertia terms. This non-linear equation has no general analytical solution. Numerical schemes are therefore employed to discretize the space and time axes and convert the differential equation to difference form. In this study, the mixing cell method is used to convert the diffusion wave equation to difference form, in which the difference term can be eliminated by selecting an optimal space step size Δx when time step size Δt is given. When the time step size Δt→0, the space step size Δx=Q/(2S₀BC]_k) where Q is discharge, S₀ is bed slope, B is channel width and C_k is kinematic wave celerity, which is the same as the characteristic length proposed by Kalinin and Milyukov. The results of application to two cases show that the mixing cell and linear channel flow routing methods produce hydrographs that are in agreement with the observed flood hydrographs. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of Gibbs’ model to urban drainage networks: a case study in southwestern Chicago,USA

Hydrologic analysis of urban drainage networks often encounters a number of issues, including data acquisition and preparation for modelling, which can be costly and time‐consuming processes. Moreover, it can get more challenging with missing data and complex loops inside networks. In this article, Gibbs’ model is applied to urban drainage networks to investigate the possibility of replacing an actual existing urban drainage network in terms of the shape and peak flow of the hydrographs at the outlet. The characteristic network configuration is given as a value of a parameter β of Gibbs’ model. Instead of the actual network, stochastic networks from Monte‐Carlo simulation are utilized to obtain a synthetic width function from the generated networks, and runoff hydrographs are estimated based on it. The results show that the synthetic width function and the resulting hydrographs obtained from the networks simulated by Gibbs’ model are close to those from the actual network. The result also shows that even the behaviour of a looped network can be approximated by equivalent dendritic networks generated by Gibbs’ model. The applicability of a stochastic network model in urban catchment implies a complement to modelling approaches in case of data unavailability. Moreover, the network property (β) is utilized not only to estimate the discharge hydrograph of a catchment but also as a key link to evaluate the effect from rainstorm movement in urban catchments. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Synthetic design hydrographs for ungauged catchments: a comparison of regionalization methods

Design flood estimates for a given return period are required in both gauged and ungauged catchments for hydraulic design and risk assessments. Contrary to classical design estimates, synthetic design hydrographs provide not only information on the peak magnitude of events but also on the corresponding hydrograph volumes together with the hydrograph shapes. In this study, we tested different regionalization approaches to transfer parameters of synthetic design hydrographs from gauged to ungauged catchments. These approaches include classical regionalization methods such as linear regression techniques, spatial methods, and methods based on the formation of homogeneous regions. In addition to these classical approaches, we tested nonlinear regression models not commonly used in hydrological regionalization studies, such as random forest, bagging, and boosting. We found that parameters related to the magnitude of the design event can be regionalized well using both linear and nonlinear regression techniques using catchment area, length of the main channel, maximum precipitation intensity, and relief energy as explanatory variables. The hydrograph shape, however, was found to be more difficult to regionalize due to its high variability within a catchment. Such variability might be better represented by looking at flood-type specific synthetic design hydrographs.     

Assessment on the function of reservoirs for flood control during typhoon seasons based on a distributed hydrological model

A grid‐based distributed hydrological model, PDTank model, is used to simulate hydrological processes in the upper Tone River catchment. The Tone River catchment often suffers from heavy rainfall events during the typhoon seasons. The reservoirs located in the catchment play an important role in flood regulation. Through the coupling of the PDTank model and a reservoir module that combines the storage function and operation function, the PDTank model is used for flood forecasting in this study. By comparing the hydrographs simulated using gauging and radar rainfall data, it is found that the spatial variability of rainfall is an important factor for flood simulation and the accuracy of the hydrographs simulated using radar rainfall data is slightly improved. The simulation of the typhoon flood event numbered No. 9 shows that the reservoirs in the catchment attenuate the peak flood discharge by 423·3 m³/s and validates the potential applicability of the distributed hydrological model on the assessment of function of reservoirs for flood control during typhoon seasons. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Advances in pan‐European flood hazard mapping

Flood hazard maps at trans‐national scale have potential for a large number of applications ranging from climate change studies, reinsurance products, aid to emergency operations for major flood crisis, among others. However, at continental scales, only few products are available, due to the difficulty of retrieving large consistent data sets. Moreover, these are produced at relatively coarse grid resolution, which limits their applications to qualitative assessments. At finer resolution, maps are often limited to country boundaries, due to limited data sharing at trans‐national level. The creation of a European flood hazard map would currently imply a collection of scattered regional maps, often lacking mutual consistency due to the variety of adopted approaches and quality of the underlying input data. In this work, we derive a pan‐European flood hazard map at 100 m resolution. The proposed approach is based on expanding a literature cascade model through a physically based approach. A combination of distributed hydrological and hydraulic models was set up for the European domain. Then, an observed meteorological data set is used to derive a long‐term streamflow simulation and subsequently coherent design flood hydrographs for a return period of 100 years along the pan‐European river network. Flood hydrographs are used to simulate areas at risk of flooding and output maps are merged into a pan‐European flood hazard map. The quality of this map is evaluated for selected areas in Germany and United Kingdom against national/regional hazard maps. Despite inherent limitations and model resolution issues, simulated maps are in good agreement with reference maps (hit rate between 59% and 78%, critical success index between 43% and 65%), suggesting strong potential for a number of applications at the European scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fluvial hydraulics of hyperconcentrated floods in Chinese rivers

Hyperconcentrated floods, with sediment concentrations higher than 200 kg/m³, occur frequently in the Yellow River and its tributaries on the Loess Plateau. This paper studies the fluvial hydraulics of hyperconcentrated floods by statistical analysis and comparison with low sediment concentration floods. The fluvial process induced by hyperconcentrated floods is extremely rapid. The river morphology may be altered more at a faster rate by one hyperconcentrated flood than by low sediment concentration floods over a decade. The vertical sediment concentration distribution in hyperconcentrated floods is homogeneous. The Darcy–Weisbach coefficient of hyperconcentrated floods varies with the Reynolds number in the same way as normal open channel flows but a representative viscosity is used to replace the viscosity, η. If the concentration is not extremely high and the Reynolds number is larger than 2000, the flow is turbulent and the Darcy–Weisbach coefficient for the hyperconcentrated floods is almost the same as low sediment concentration floods. Serious channel erosion, which is referred to as ‘ripping up the bottom’ in Chinese, occurs in narrow‐deep channels during hyperconcentrated floods. However, in wide‐shallow channels, hyperconcentrated floods may result in serious sedimentation. Moreover, a hyperconcentrated flood may cause the channel to become narrower and deeper, thus, reducing the flood stage by more than 1 m if the flood event lasts longer than one day. The fluvial process during hyperconcentrated floods also changes the propagation of flood waves. Successive waves may catch up with and overlap the first wave, thus, increasing the peak discharge of the flood wave during flood propagation along the river course. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prediction and assessment of multiple glacial lake outburst floods scenario in Pho Chu River basin,Bhutan

In this study, the characteristic of multiple glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the Pho Chu River basin in Bhutanese Himalayas is evaluated to help assess the potential impact. Thorthormi Cho (TC) and Lugge Cho (LC) in the east branch and two unnamed lakes labelled A and B in the west branch of Pho Chu are chosen for the study. Numerical models were employed to simulate different involved processes. The results show that the peak sediment discharge in the east branch of the Pho Chu River by the TC dam breach reached about 5000 m³/s (during the first GLOF) at 4 km whereas by the LC dam breach is about 600 m³/s (second GLOF) at 6 km. However, the highest peak hydrographs (sediment and water mixture) calculated during the first and second GLOF are about 10 000 m³/s at the 18‐km section and about 23 000 m³/s at the 10‐km section, respectively. In the west branch of Pho Chu, erosion and depositions are the frequent intermittent local processes during the first GLOF event from Lake A. Because the first event stabilized the irregular river bed profile, there is not much sediment discharge developed during the second GLOF from Lake B. At the 17‐km section of the west branch, the peak hydrograph reached about 9000 m³/s during the first event against the peak of about 800 m³/s during the second event. The results suggest that even if multiple dam breaches occur simultaneously, GLOF surges pass through the main river channel at different times with very different flood characteristics. The differences in travel time and flood characteristics mostly depend on the distributions of bed slope and potential erosion depth along the reach. Further, the amount of sediment accumulated in and transported by each surge is reliant on the temporal geomorphologic setting of the river and therefore on the impact of the previous GLOF on riverbed profile and potential erosion depth. The robustness in peak GLOF hydrographs is associated with sediment flow dynamics. As a consequence, serious inundation of Punakha, Lobeysa and major portion of Wangdue Phodrang is anticipated. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.