Spatiotemporal variability of drought and the potential climatological driving factors in the Liao River basin

Spatiotemporal characteristics of drought based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in the Liao River basin (LRB) are investigated in this study. High autocorrelation in SPI seems to lend itself to drought prediction. Drought is becoming more frequent, widespread, and severe in the LRB during the past several decades. Major factors affecting drought in this basin are analysed by investigating relationship between SPI and several circulations including western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices. Different correlation patterns between WPSH indices and SPI are obtained. Several significant positive correlations between the area, intensity of WPSH and SPI are observed in the west and the centre of the study area, while negative correlations are observed in the east. Reverse patterns are observed in the correlation between the ridge of westward longitude of WPSH and SPI. Corresponding lag‐correlation is dominated by positive correlations between the area, intensity of WPSH and SPI, and by negative correlation between the ridge of westward longitude of WPSH and SPI. EASM is mainly negative related with drought in the east of the LRB. Significant positive correlation between ENSO and SPI is mainly located in the east while negative correlation is located in west of the basin. Lag‐correlation (with lags of 1 to 12 months) between them is also investigated and results show that significant negative correlation is located in a broad area extending from the west to the centre of the basin, while less positive correlation is observed with the increase of lags. The possibility of employing general circulation models (GCMs) for drought prediction is discussed based on the above analyses. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Terrestrial hydrological responses to precipitation variability in Southwest China with emphasis on drought

Abstract

This study investigates the terrestrial hydrological processes during a dry climate period in Southwest China by analysing the frequency-dependent runoff and soil moisture responses to precipitation variability. Two headwater sub-basins, the Nanpan and Guihe basins of the West River (Xijiang), are studied to compare and contrast the terrestrial responses. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model is used to simulate the hydrological processes. Using wavelets, the relationships between observed precipitation and simulated runoff/soil moisture are expressed quantitatively. The results indicate that: (a) the Guihe basin shows a greater degree of high-frequency runoff variability in response to regional precipitation; and (b) the Nanpan basin exhibits less capability in accommodating/smoothing extreme precipitation deficits, reflected in terms of both higher scale-averaged (for 3–6 months) and time-averaged (for the year 1963) wavelet power of soil moisture.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor C.-Y. Xu

Citation Niu, J. and Chen, J., 2013. Terrestrial hydrological responses to precipitation variability in Southwest China with emphasis on drought. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (2), 325–335.     

Characterizing and understanding the variability of streamflow drought indicators within the USA

ABSTRACT

Low streamflow conditions can have adverse consequences for society and river ecology. The variability and drivers of streamflow drought indicators within the USA were investigated using observed streamflow records from 603 gauges across the USA. The analysis was based on two main approaches: (i) low-flow magnitude indicators, and (ii) streamflow deficit indicators. First, we examined how streamflow drought indicators vary spatially across the USA. Second, we used a data-driven clustering method to identify spatial clusters for each indicator. Finally, we assessed the association with regional climate drivers. The results show that the spatial variability of low-flow magnitude indicators is significantly different from the deficit indicators. Further, our clustering approach identifies regions of spatial homogeneity, which can be linked to the extreme regional climate drivers and land–atmosphere interactions. The influence of regional climate on streamflow drought indicators varies more between clusters than between indicators.     

我国北方干湿演变规律及其与区域增暖的可能联系

用中国地区60个站的月平均气温和月降水资料,计算了我国北方地区地表水分收支、蒸发等水分过程.以此为基础,分析了三北地区（西北、东北和华北）地表水分的历史演变规律及其与气温变化的关系,特别分析了和区域增暖的关系.结果指出：在北方地区,地表水分有其显著的演变规律,不同地区其变化规律不同.而实际蒸发和气温的关系存在明显的阶段性,在1965年前与1965年后的相关关系是完全相反的.分析的结果还指出：当前北方地区的普遍增温是干旱化加剧的主要原因.     

The spatial and temporal variability of groundwater recharge in a forested basin in northern Wisconsin

Recharge varies spatially and temporally as it depends on a wide variety of factors (e.g. vegetation, precipitation, climate, topography, geology, and soil type), making it one of the most difficult, complex, and uncertain hydrologic parameters to quantify. Despite its inherent variability, groundwater modellers, planners, and policy makers often ignore recharge variability and assume a single average recharge value for an entire watershed. Relatively few attempts have been made to quantify or incorporate spatial and temporal recharge variability into water resource planning or groundwater modelling efforts. In this study, a simple, daily soil–water balance model was developed and used to estimate the spatial and temporal distribution of groundwater recharge of the Trout Lake basin of northern Wisconsin for 1996–2000 as a means to quantify recharge variability. For the 5 years of study, annual recharge varied spatially by as much as 18 cm across the basin; vegetation was the predominant control on this variability. Recharge also varied temporally with a threefold annual difference over the 5‐year period. Intra‐annually, recharge was limited to a few isolated events each year and exhibited a distinct seasonal pattern. The results suggest that ignoring recharge variability may not only be inappropriate, but also, depending on the application, may invalidate model results and predictions for regional and local water budget calculations, water resource management, nutrient cycling, and contaminant transport studies. Recharge is spatially and temporally variable, and should be modelled as such. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatiotemporal variability of ocean chemistry in the early Cambrian,South China

Following the Ediacaran metazoan radiation, the “Cambrian Explosion” set up the major framework of todays’ animal phyla as well as modern marine ecosystem. Here, we present a preliminary investigation on the temporal and spatial (from shallow to deep waters) variations of the early Cambrian ocean chemistry in South China through analyzing a Fe-S-C systematic dataset integrated from literature. Our investigation indicates that the early Cambrian deep ocean in South China was still anoxic and Fe²⁺-enriched (i.e., ferruginous) although its surface was oxic, and in between a metastable euxinic (anoxic and sulfidic) water zone may have dynamically developed in anoxic shelf waters with an increasing weathering sulfate supply. Furthermore, accompanying marine transgression and regression cycles in the early Cambrian, such a “sandwich” structure in ocean redox chemistry demonstrates five evolutional stages, which can be well correlated to the spatiotemporal patterns of fossil records in South China. The good correlation between metazoan fossil occurrences and water chemistry in South China suggests that early animals possibly possessed ability to inhabit anoxic but generally not euxinic environments as free H₂S was fatal to most eukaryotes. This view can well explain why those small shell fauna and sponges disappeared from shelf to slope areas where sulfidic Ni-Mo-rich shales were widely deposited. Thus, we conclude that the spatiotemporal variations of ocean chemistry and its biological effects probably played a key role in the phased animal radiations and “extinctions” in the early Cambrian.     

Temporal and spatial features of the soil moisture in boreal spring in eastern China

Soil moisture data of 45 years from European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and the in situ observational data are used to study the temporal and spatial characteristics of the soil moisture in boreal spring in the area to the east of 100°E in China. Results show that ERA-40 soil moisture well reproduces the temporal and spatial features of observations. ERA-40 data capture the spatial pattern that the soils in Northeast China and Southwest China are wetter than those...     

Temporal variation in primary magma compositions in the northeast Japan Arc

Abstract A remarkable temporal variation in primary magma compositions has been found in the Northeast Japan arc. The trench-side magmas have become more enriched in FeO* and the backarc-side magmas have become more depleted in FeO* while retaining almost constant SiO, levels for the last ∼20 million years. In order to understand the origin of the temporal variation, FeO* and SiO, contents in partial melts are modeled for an adiabatically-rising mantle as a function of potential temperature and original composition of the mantle material. The result demonstrates that the primary magmas that are more depleted in FeO* were derived from the mantle materials either at lower potential temperatures or with compositions more depleted in basaltic components. A possible mechanism for the inferred primary magma variability is the change in depth intervals with time of magma production in a compositionally-layered mantle wedge; greater degrees of depletion at a greater depth is reconciled with a probable thermal regime in the mantle wedge.     

Mesoscale spatial variability of soil‐water content in an alpine meadow on the northern Tibetan Plateau

Soil water is an important limiting factor for restoring alpine meadows on the northern Tibetan Plateau. Field studies of soil‐water content (SWC), however, are rare due to the harsh environment, especially in a mesoscale alpine‐meadow ecosystem. The objective of this study was to assess the spatial variability of SWC and the temporal variation of the spatial variability in a typical alpine meadow using a geostatistical approach. SWC was measured using a neutron probe to a depth of 50 cm at 113 locations on 22 sampling occasions in a 33.5‐hm² alpine meadow during the 2015 and 2016 growing seasons. Mean SWC in the study plot for the two growing seasons was 18.7, 14.0, 13.9, 14.3, and 14.8% for depths of 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 cm, respectively, and SWC was significantly larger at 10 cm than at other depths. SWC was negatively correlated with its spatial variability, and the spatial variability was higher when SWC was lower. Thirty‐three sampling locations in this study plot met the requirement of accuracy of the central limit theorem. A Gaussian model was the best fit for SWC semivariance at depths of 10, 20, and 30 cm, and the spatial structural ratio was between 0.997 and 1, indicating a strong spatial dependence of SWC. The sill and range fluctuated temporally, and the nugget and spatial structural ratio did not generally vary with time. The sill was significantly positively correlated with SWC and was initially stable and then tend to increase with SWC. The nugget, range, and spatial structure ratio, however, were not correlated with SWC. These results contribute to our understanding of SWC spatial distribution and variation in alpine meadows and provide basic empirical SWC data for mesoscale model simulations, optimizing sampling strategies and managing meadows on the Tibetan Plateau.     

华北东北部裂陷盆地与燕山隆起地壳结构

天津—北京—赤城深地震测深剖面采用密集炮点和接收点距设计构成了较为完整的观测系统,利用该剖面地震测深资料研究华北东部裂陷盆地与燕山隆起地壳结构及构造耦合.结合该区域已有研究成果,进一步分析了张渤地震带东段的地震构造环境.结果显示,华北克拉通东部裂陷盆地结晶基底构造形态和界面结构性质与新生代以来的地壳构造运动密切相关,北侧燕山隆起区高速稳定和南侧裂陷盆地低速松散截然不同的地壳结构,使宝坻－桐柏、宁河－昌黎断裂构造分区线和燕山隆起之间的中间过渡带为张渤地震带东部平原区地震的孕发提供了良好的构造环境.     

巢湖微囊藻毒素异构体组成的时空分布特征及影响因子

有害蓝藻释放微囊藻毒素（MCs）,严重威胁饮用水源地用水安全.为了解巢湖MCs污染状况及其异构体组成对水质的影响,于2012年夏季（8月）和秋季（11月）,2013年冬季（2月）和春季（5月）进行采样分析,研究了巢湖水体中胞内微囊藻毒素（IMCs）和胞外微囊藻毒素（EMCs）异构体的时空分布及其与环境因子的关系.结果发现,IMCs和EMCs的平均浓度变化范围分别为0.12~6.45 μg/L和0.69~1.92 μg/L.在3种常见的异构体中,MC-RR和MC-LR比例较高,MC-YR最低,MC-RR和MC-LR是巢湖水体中MCs的主要异构体类型.IMCs和EMCs的异构体浓度及其比例呈现不同的时空分布特征.微囊藻生物量、水温、总磷浓度是影响IMCs和EMCs异构体浓度及其组成变化的关键环境因子.本研究表明巢湖富营养化严重的西湖区夏季能合成更多的MC-RR异构体,而秋、冬季节偏向于释放生理毒性更强的MC-LR异构体.了解MCs异构体组成变化及其关键影响因素,有助于预测预警水体MCs污染状况和评估饮用水源地MCs风险.     

华北北部地区现今应力场时空变化特征研究.

依据2002——2006年的中小地震资料,利用格点尝试法分析计算了华北北部4个应力小区的平均主应力轴,讨论了华北北部地区的现今应力场特征.在此基础上,对1977——1998年研究区内的单个地震震源机制解进行了进一步的分析计算,并结合以往的研究结果,研究了华北北部地区现今应力场随时间的变化特征,结果印证了唐山地震前后,唐山震源区及其邻近地区应力场主应力方向出现的转动和变化的现象:1976年唐山发生7.8级地震后,唐山震源区及其邻近的北京地区和邢台地区震源机制解的平均P轴可能顺时针转动了约15deg;——30deg;。北京地区和邢台地区近期（2002——2006年）的平均主应力轴与唐山地震前的综合断层面解较为一致,这两个地区应力场似乎转回到唐山地震前的状态. 而唐山区震源机制解的平均P轴在地震后则一直稳定在EW向上。位于张家口——渤海断裂带西段的京西北地区,其现今应力场则相对比较稳定,唐山地震前后主应力方向没有太大变动。鉴于数据资料等方面的原因,本文的研究结果仅仅是初步给出了华北北部地区应力场近几十年来一种可能的调整变化图象。      

Global projections of changing risks of floods and droughts in a changing climate

Abstract

Simulated daily discharge derived from a relatively high-resolution (approximately 1.1-degree) general circulation model was used to investigate future projections of extremes in river discharge under global warming. The frequency of floods was projected to increase over many regions, except those including North America and central to western Eurasia. The drought frequency was projected to increase globally, while regions such as northern high latitudes, eastern Australia, and eastern Eurasia showed a decrease or no significant changes. Changes in flood and drought are not explained simply by changes in annual precipitation, heavy precipitation, or differences between precipitation and evapotranspiration. Several regions were projected to have increases in both flood frequency and drought frequency. Such regions show a decrease in the number of precipitation days, but an increase in days with heavy rain. Several regions show shifts in the flood season from springtime snowmelt to the summer period of heavy precipitation.     

Analysis of meteorological drought variability in Niger and its connection with climate indices

Based on a three-month-scale standardized precipitation index (SPI-3) computed from the available rainfall data of 13 stations of Niger, meteorological drought trends, periodicities and the relationships with 10 oceanic–atmospheric variables were analysed using the Mann-Kendall test, continuous wavelet transform and cross-wavelet analysis, respectively. The results revealed a significant (p < 5%) increase in drought at five of the 13 stations. A common dominant drought periodicity of 2 years was found at all of the stations, whereas significant periodicities varied from 2 to 32 years at six stations. Among the considered climate indices, South Atlantic sea-surface temperature, Southern Oscillation Index, sea-level pressure, geopotential height and relative humidity from the Atlantic basin oscillated in anti-phase relative to the SPI-3 at an inter-annual to decadal time scale from 1960 to 1990. In this period, relative humidity from the Mediterranean basin and zonal wind oscillated in phase with the drought index.     

Assessing vegetation dynamics and their relationships with climatic variability in northern China

In this study, the vegetation dynamics and their correlations with climate variability in northern China were evaluated based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and meteorological datasets from 1982 to 2006. The NDVI showed that vegetation cover had a tiny increasing trend for whole study area in the past 25 years. However, the interannual changes of NDVI were different in each season. The part of spring and autumn NDVI values increased significantly, while the summer NDVI increased no significantly. And the interannual variations of the NDVI showed obvious spatial differentiations. The annual max NDVI increased were mainly distributed in most areas of grassland and farmland, whereas the annual max NDVI decreased were mainly distributed in forest areas. The annual NDVI and temperature had more important relationships. Thus, as compared to precipitation, the correlation between NDVI with temperature was stronger than the precipitation in northern China. NDVI and climatic variables were different in each season. The NDVI trends exhibited a close correspondence to climatological variations in region and season. In Addition, human activities also had profound effect to the NDVI trends in some regions. All these findings will make humans know more about the knowledge of the natural forces that influence vegetation change and supply a scientific basic resource to for the environmental management in northern China.     

Spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation and extreme events on the Loess Plateau of China between 1957 and 2009

Spatiotemporal trends in precipitation may influence vegetation restoration, and extreme precipitation events profoundly affect soil erosion processes on the Loess Plateau. Daily data collected at 89 meteorological stations in the area between 1957 and 2009 were used to analyze the spatiotemporal trends of precipitation on the Loess Plateau and the return periods of different types of precipitation events classified in the study. Nonparametric methods were employed for temporal analysis, and the Kriging interpolation method was employed for spatial analysis. The results indicate a small decrease in precipitation over the Loess Plateau in last 53 years (although a Mann–Kendall test did not show this decrease to be significant), a southward shift in precipitation isohyets, a slightly delayed rainy season, and prolonged return periods, especially for rainstorm and heavy rainstorm events. Regional responses to global climate change have varied greatly. A slightly increasing trend in precipitation in annual and sub‐annual series, with no obvious shift of isohyets, and an evident decreasing trend in extreme precipitation events were detected in the northwest. In the southeast, correspondingly, a more seriously decreasing trend occurred, with clear shifts of isohyets and a slightly decreasing trend in extreme precipitation events. The result suggests that a negative trend in annual precipitation may have led to decreased soil erosion but an increase in sediment yield during several extreme events. These changes in the precipitation over the Loess Plateau should be noted, and countermeasures should be taken to reduce their adverse impacts on the sustainable development of the region. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

南海北部海底热流测量及分析

广州海洋地质调查局用德国产的微型温度传感器和自行研制的重力取样器组装成海底热流探针,并用该设备在中国南海北部开展了海底热流测量,这是国内首次独立开展此项工作,也是我国海洋地质和地球物理调查技术方法的新尝试.通过实测数据分析以及与1985年中美合作获得的西沙海域地热流测量剖面数据对比,表明测量数据可靠并具有良好的一致性.此项工作的成功,将有助于地热流测量工作的深入开展,进而提高我国海底天然气水合物的勘探和海洋地质基础研究的水平.     

Upper mantle P wave velocity structure of the northern part of China and Mongolia

ｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＴｈｅｄｅｔｅｒｍｉｎａｔｉｏｎｏｆｆｉｎｅｒａｄｉａｌｖｅｌｏｃｉｔｙｓｔｒｕｃｔｕｒｅｏｆｕｐｐｅｒｍａｎｔｌｅｐｌａｙｓａｎｉｍｐｏｒｔａｎｔｒｏｌｅｉｎｉｎｖｅｓｔｉｇａｔｉｏｎｏｆｍａｎｔｌｅｃｏｍｐｏｓｉｔｉｏｎａ...