Reporting negative results to stimulate experimental hydrology: discussion of “The role of experimental work in hydrological sciences – insights from a community survey”*

ABSTRACT

Experimental work in hydrology is in decline. Based on a community survey, Blume et al. showed that the hydrological community associates experimental work with greater risks. One of the main issues with experimental work is the higher chance of negative results (defined here as when the expected or wanted result was not observed despite careful experimental design, planning and execution), resulting in a longer and more difficult publishing process. Reporting on negative results would avoid putting time and resources into repeating experiments that lead to negative results, and give experimental hydrologists the scientific recognition they deserve. With this commentary, we propose four potential solutions to encourage reporting on negative results, which might contribute to a stimulation of experimental hydrology.     

A recipe for why and how to set up and sustain an experimental catchment

Experimental catchments are fundamental elements in hydrological sciences as they provide key data for putting forward and testing hypotheses, developing theories, constraining models, and making predictions. Significant progress in catchment hydrology stemmed from field measurements but increasing costs and risks associated with field work and the availability of big data based on remote sensing, machine learning, and a plethora of models, as well as observations deriving from previous and current sites, raises questions on whether running an experimental catchment still provides individual and community benefits as in the past. In this commentary, I highlight the advantages of keeping experimental catchments alive and propose a personal 10-step “recipe” to set up a new experimental catchment and manage and sustain it in the long term. These suggestions can be useful both to young and less young researchers who are open to facing the challenge of measuring processes in the field and are willing to offer the scientific community new experimental evidence for advancing our current knowledge in catchment hydrology.     

Reporting negative results to stimulate experimental hydrology: discussion of “The role of experimental work in hydrological sciences – insights from a community survey”*

Experimental work in hydrology is in decline. Based on a community survey, Blume et al. showed that the hydrological community associates experimental work with greater risks. One of the main issues with experimental work is the higher chance of negative results (defined here as when the expected or wanted result was not observed despite careful experimental design, planning and execution), resulting in a longer and more difficult publishing process. Reporting on negative results would avoid putting time and resources into repeating experiments that lead to negative results, and give experimental hydrologists the scientific recognition they deserve. With this commentary, we propose four potential solutions to encourage reporting on negative results, which might contribute to a stimulation of experimental hydrology.     

Climate variability,hydrology and water resources: do we communicate in the field? (HAPEX,FIFE, GEWEX,GCIP and what next?)

Abstract

All the field “experiments” indicated in the sub-title above include the hydrological cycle in some or all of its aspects and thus require the use of “hydrological sciences”. Is hydrology actually included in them? This depends on the definition of hydrology used. The paper briefly describes the different definitions of “hydrology” in the context of the scientific objectives and concepts of these experiments and related scientific activities. It further evaluates the role actually assigned to hydrologists in past cross-disciplinary endeavours to conduct “field experiments” and goes on to propose adjustments to this role in the GEWEX Continental-scale International Project (GCIP). Related activities are analysed in some detail in this framework and proposals are presented for increased inter-disciplinary communication.     

我国湖泊水文学研究进展与展望

湖泊是地球表层水体的重要组成部分,在区域社会经济发展和生物多样性保护等方面发挥着不可替代的作用.气候变化和高强度的水资源开发利用等,导致湖泊物理、化学特性在时空格局上发生显著的变化,引起一系列的社会、环境、气候等响应.湖泊水文学研究湖泊水文要素及其时空变化特征、平衡关系与变化规律,在水文过程演变与归因解析、湖泊洪旱发生机理与调控、湖泊资源评估与可持续利用等方面,解决了众多理论和实践问题,为区域发展提供了强大支撑.本文评述了近50年来我国湖泊水文学的发展与研究进展,重点阐述湖泊水量平衡与水量变化、湖泊水动力与水文过程调蓄、湖泊极端水文事件成因、湖泊水文遥感反演等方面的研究进展,展望了湖泊水文学的未来发展趋势.     

Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH) – a community perspective

ABSTRACT

This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through online media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focused on the process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come.     

The importance of and need for rapid hydrologic assessments in Latin America

Long‐term observations are critical in hydrology to understand the dynamics of biological and physicochemical processes involved in and affected by the flux of water. Long‐term observations have been employed to provide basic understanding of the water cycle (e.g., infiltration, evaporation, run‐off generation, and groundwater–surface water interactions), but they are lacking in hydrologically relevant regions such as the Andes Mountains, including alpine watersheds. Although the call for long‐term data acquisition in Latin America has been made, the establishment of long‐term data collection centres remains logistically challenging. This ever‐growing scientific gap hinders our understanding of differences and similarities in hydrological processes of tropical and temperate regions. Furthermore, technological advances such as in situ optical sensors for water quantity and quality remain cost‐prohibitive for both short and long deployment at most existing research sites in Latin America, restricting researchers pursuing research funding or developing meaningful, intersite comparisons and syntheses. Here, we emphasize the importance of and need for rapid assessments (i.e., field campaigns conducted over a few days) for improved hypothesis development and mechanistic understanding of hydrological dynamics in Latin America. We report on rapid assessments conducted in the high‐elevation mountains (>3,000 m) of Colombia. Our results highlight rapidly changing dynamics in nutrient retention potential and dissolved CO₂ (pCO₂), as well as highly variable spatial distribution of water quality parameters (N, C, P, Cl) in areas with varying land use. We present an initial examination of the effects of land‐use change on stream nutrient dynamics in one of the most biodiverse and threatened ecosystems on Earth. We conclude that rapid assessments not only are necessary but also represent a cost‐effective way to develop clear, testable hypotheses to advance a hydrologic research agenda in Latin America and work towards long‐term hydrological knowledge and information for use by other scientists.     

Basic data on the hydrology of Lakes Ohrid and Prespa

This paper deals with hydrological analyses of Lakes Ohrid and Prespa. The watersheds and the lakes themselves are shared by three countries: Albania, Greece and Macedonia. As a result of insufficient interstate scientific cooperation and inexistence of data exchange, the lakes and their watersheds are not fully investigated regarding hydrology and hydrogeology. This paper represents a first attempt at a complete hydrological analysis based on data from the Macedonian side. This is not considered to be a particular deficiency, because over 60% of the lakes' watersheds and the lakes themselves belong to Macedonia, where a great number of reliable and long‐term data series of hydrometeorological observations exist. The Prespa lakes do not have surface outflow and are connected with Lake Ohrid by underground karst conduits. Because of this, from the hydrological point of view, the lakes and their watersheds cannot be analysed separately. The changes of the regime of the air temperature and the rainfall distribution have been investigated in this report. An increase of the maximum and decrease of the minimum annual air temperatures, as well as a decrease of annual precipitation sums has been determined. Also, a statistically significant descending trend of water level in both lakes has been confirmed, with a statement that the water level decrease in Lake Prespa is extremely alarming. From 1985 to 1995 the water level in Lake Prespa has dropped by more than 5 m. The main reasons for this cannot be identified easily because there are no data on water use quantities from all three countries. As the lakes represent unique natural, ecological and economical water resources in a region suffering water shortage, we plead for a strengthening of international support in activities on salvation of both lakes. A prerequisite for this is the water balance calculation and common cooperation in sustainable water resources management of the lakes. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological cycle and water balance estimates for the megadune–lake region of the Badain Jaran Desert,China

The hydrology and water balance of megadunes and lakes have been investigated in the Badain Jaran Desert of China. Field observations and analyses of sand layer water content, field capacity, secondary salt content, and grain size reveal 3 types of important natural phenomenon: (a) vegetation bands on the leeward slope of the megadunes reflect the hydrological regime within the sandy vadose zone; (b) seepage, wet sand deposits, and secondary salt deposits indicate the pattern of water movement within the sandy vadose zone; (c) zones of groundwater seeps and descending springs around the lakes reflect the influence of the local topography on the hydrological regime of the megadunes. The seepage exposed on the sloping surface of the megadunes and gravity water contained within the sand layer confirm the occurrence of preferential flow within the vadose zone of the megadunes. Alternating layers of coarse and fine sand create the conditions for the formation of preferential flows. The preferential flows promote movement of water within the sand layer water that leads to deep penetration of water within the megadunes and ultimately to the recharging of groundwater and lake water. Our results indicate that a positive water balance promotes recharge of the megadunes, which depends on the high permeability of the megadune material, the shallow depth of the surface sand layer affected by evaporation, the occurrence of rainfall events exceeding 15 mm, and the sparse vegetation cover. Water balance estimates indicate that the annual water storage of the megadunes is about 7.5 mm, accounting for only 8% of annual precipitation; however, the shallow groundwater per unit area under the megadunes receives only 3.6% of annual precipitation, but it is still able to maintain a dynamic balance of the lake water. From a water budget perspective, the annual water storage in the megadunes is sufficient to serve as a recharge source for lake water, thereby enabling the long‐term persistence of the lakes. Overall, our findings demonstrate that precipitation is a significant component of the hydrological cycle in arid deserts.     

Delineating floodplain and upland areas for hydrologic models: a comparison of methods

A spatially distributed representation of basin hydrology and transport processes in hydrologic models facilitates the identification of critical source areas and the placement of management and conservation measures. Floodplains are critical landscape features that differ from neighbouring uplands in terms of their hydrological processes and functions. Accordingly, an important step in watershed modelling is the representation of floodplain and upland areas within a watershed. The aim of this study is (1) to evaluate four floodplain–upland delineation methods that use readily available topographic data (topographic wetness index, slope position, uniform flood stage, and variable flood stage) with regard to their suitability for hydrological models and (2) to introduce an evaluation scheme for the delineated landscape units. The methods are tested in three U.S. watersheds ranging in size from 334 to 629 km² with different climatic, hydrological, and geomorphological characteristics. Evaluation of the landscape delineation methods includes visual comparisons, error matrices (i.e. cross‐tabulations of delineated vs reference data), and geometric accuracy metrics. Reference data were obtained from the Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood maps. Results suggest that the slope position and the variable flood stage method work very well in all three watersheds. Overall percentages of floodplain and upland areas allocated correctly were obtained by comparing delineated and reference data. Values range from 83 to 93% for the slope position and from 80 to 95% for the variable flood stage method. Future studies will incorporate these two floodplain–upland delineation methods into the subwatershed‐based hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to improve the representation of hydrological processes within floodplain and upland areas. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of the Global and Regional Land Hydrosphere and Its Impact on the Balance of the Geophysical Excitation Function of Polar Motion

The impact of continental hydrological loading from land water, snow and ice on polar motion excitation, calculated as hydrological angular momentum (HAM), is difficult to estimate, and not as much is known about it as about atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) and oceanic angular momentum (OAM). In this paper, regional hydrological excitations to polar motion are investigated using monthly terrestrial water storage data derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission and from the five models of land hydrology. The results show that the areas where the variance shows large variability are similar for the different models of land hydrology and for the GRACE data. Areas which have a small amplitude on the maps make an important contribution to the global hydrological excitation function of polar motion. The comparison of geodetic residuals and global hydrological excitation functions of polar motion shows that none of the hydrological excitation has enough energy to significantly improve the agreement between the observed geodetic excitation and geophysical ones.     

Global sensitivity analysis of DRAINMOD‐FOREST,an integrated forest ecosystem model

Global sensitivity analysis is a useful tool to understand process‐based ecosystem models by identifying key parameters and processes controlling model predictions. This study reported a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis for DRAINMOD‐FOREST, an integrated model for simulating water, carbon (C), and nitrogen (N) cycles and plant growth in lowland forests. The analysis was carried out for multiple long‐term model predictions of hydrology, biogeochemistry, and plant growth. Results showed that long‐term mean hydrological predictions were highly sensitive to several key plant physiological parameters. Long‐term mean annual soil organic C content and mineralization rate were mainly controlled by temperature‐related parameters for soil organic matter decomposition. Mean annual forest productivity and N uptake were found to be mainly dependent upon plant production‐related parameters, including canopy quantum use efficiency and carbon use efficiency. Mean annual nitrate loss was highly sensitive to parameters controlling both hydrology and plant production, while mean annual dissolved organic nitrogen loss was controlled by parameters associated with its production and physical sorption. Parameters controlling forest production, C allocation, and specific leaf area highly affected long‐term mean annual leaf area. Results of this study could help minimize the efforts needed for calibrating DRAINMOD‐FOREST. Meanwhile, this study demonstrates the critical role of plants in regulating water, C, and N cycles in forest ecosystems and highlights the necessity of incorporating a dynamic plant growth model for comprehensively simulating hydrological and biogeochemical processes. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improving the visibility of hydrological sciences from developing countries

Abstract

The increasing level of competition in scientific publishing arguably has a greater negative impact on hydrologists from developing countries and specifically young scientists. This paper discusses the constraints they face and offers suggestions to authors and the hydrological community about how these may be mitigated. These include a lack of access to resources to assist with creating good publications, the difficulty of publishing research based on relatively scarce data, a common problem in many developing countries, and a lack of familiarity with the process of publishing scientific material together with limited access to mentorship from experienced authors. A key point is to ensure that the research question addressed has a broad interest beyond the local study area. However, the more limited hydrological knowledge and the water resources problems of developing countries represent opportunities for internationally relevant research, particularly within the nexus between hydrology and society, or between science and practice. Both of these are high on the international hydrological research agenda.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis     

The concept of hydrological connectivity and its contribution to understanding runoff‐dominated geomorphic systems

The term ‘connectivity’ is increasingly being applied in hydrological and geomorphological studies. Relevant research encompasses aspects of landscape connectivity, hydrological connectivity and sedimentological connectivity. Unlike other disciplines, notably ecology, published studies show no consensus on a standard definition. This paper provides an overview of how existing research relates to the concept of connectivity in both ecology and hydrology by proposing and evaluating a conceptual model of hydrological connectivity that includes five major components: climate; hillslope runoff potential; landscape position; delivery pathway and lateral connectivity. We also evaluate a proposed measure of connectivity called the volume to breakthrough to quantify changing connectivity between different environments and catchments. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Significance of secular trends of mass variations determined from GRACE solutions

Since 2002 the Earth’s gravity field is globally observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission. The GRACE monthly gravity field solutions, available from several analysis centres, reflect mass variations in the atmosphere, hydrosphere and geosphere. Due to correlated noise contained in these solutions, it is, however, first necessary to apply an appropriate filtering technique. The resulting, smoothed time series are applied not only to determine variations with different periodic signatures (e.g., seasonal, short and medium-term), but to derive long-periodic mass variations and secular trends as well. As the GRACE monthly solutions always show the integral effect of all mass variations, for separation of single processes, like the GIA (Glacial isostatic adjustment)-related mass increase in Fennoscandia, appropriate reduction models (e.g. from hydrology) are necessary.In this study we show for the example of the Fennoscandian uplift area that GRACE solutions from different analysis centres yield considerably different secular trends. Furthermore, it turns out that the inevitable filtering of the monthly gravity field models affects not only the amplitudes of the signals, but also their spatial resolution and distribution such as the spatial form of the detected signals. It also becomes evident that the determination of trends has to be performed together with the determination of periodic components. All periodic terms which are really contained in the data, and only such, have to be included. The restricted time span of the available GRACE measurements, however, limits the separation of long-periodic and secular signals. It is shown that varying the analysis time span affects the results considerably. Finally, a reduction of hydrological signals from the detected integral secular trends using global hydrological models (WGHM, LaDWorld, GLDAS) is attempted. The differences among the trends resulting from different models illustrate that the state-of-the-art hydrology models are not suitable for this purpose as yet. Consequently, taking the GRACE monthly gravity field solutions from one centre, choosing a single filter and applying an insufficiently reliable reduction model leads sometimes to a misinterpretation of considered geophysical processes. Therefore, one has to be cautious with the final interpretation of the results.     

The accuracy of drainage network delineation as a function of environmental factors: A case study in Central and Northern Sweden

Drainage networks delineated from Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), are the basis for the modelling of geomorphological and hydrological processes, biogeochemical cycling, and water resources management. Besides providing effective models of water flows, automatically extracted drainage networks based on topography can diverge from reality to varying degrees. The variability of such disagreement within catchments has rarely been examined as a function of the heterogeneity of land cover, soil type, and slope in the catchment of interest. This research gap might not only substantially limit our knowledge of the uncertainty of hydrological prediction, but can also cause problems for users attempting to use the data at a local scale. Using 1:100000 scale land cover maps, Quaternary deposits maps, and 2 m resolution DEMs, it is found that the accuracy of delineated drainage networks tends to be lower in areas with denser vegetation, lower hydraulic conductivity, and higher erodibility. The findings of this study could serve as a guide for the more thoughtful usage of delineated drainage networks in environmental planning, and in the uncertainty analysis of hydrological and biochemical predictions. Therefore, this study makes a first attempt at filling the knowledge gap described above.     

Identification of factors influencing hydrologic model performance using a top-down approach in a large number of U.S. catchments

Investigating the performance that can be achieved with different hydrological models across catchments with varying characteristics is a requirement for identifying an adequate model for any catchment, gauged or ungauged, just based on information about its climate and catchment properties. As parameter uncertainty increases with the number of model parameters, it is important not only to identify a model achieving good results but also to aim at the simplest model still able to provide acceptable results. The main objective of this study is to identify the climate and catchment properties determining the minimal required complexity of a hydrological model. As previous studies indicate that the required model complexity varies with the temporal scale, the study considers the performance at the daily, monthly, and annual timescales. In agreement with previous studies, the results show that catchments located in arid areas tend to be more difficult to model. They therefore require more complex models for achieving an acceptable performance. For determining which other factors influence model performance, an analysis was carried out for four catchment groups (snowy, arid, and eastern and western catchments). The results show that the baseflow and aridity indices are the most consistent predictors of model performance across catchment groups and timescales. Both properties are negatively correlated with model performance. Other relevant predictors are the fraction of snow in the annual precipitation (negative correlation with model performance), soil depth (negative correlation with model performance), and some other soil properties. It was observed that the sign of the correlation between the catchment characteristics and model performance varies between clusters in some cases, stressing the difficulties encountered in large sample analyses. Regarding the impact of the timescale, the study confirmed previous results indicating that more complex models are needed for shorter timescales.