Potential wind erosion rate response to climate and land‐use changes in the watershed of the Ningxia–Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River,China, 1986–2013

Climate and land‐use changes could strongly affect wind erosion and in turn cause a series of environmental problems. Thus, the objective of this study was to assess potential wind erosion rate (PWER) response to climate and land‐use changes in the watershed of the Ningxia–Inner Mongolia Reach of the Yellow River (NIMRYR), China. The watershed of NIMRYR suffers from serious wind erosion hazards, and over recent decades, wind erosion intensity and distribution has changed, following climate and land‐use changes. To understand these processes in the NIMRYR watershed, the Integrated Wind Erosion Modelling System (IWEMS) and the Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ) were used to calculate the PWER under different climate conditions and land‐use scenarios, and to assess the influences of climate and land‐use changes on the PWER. The results show the PWER in the whole watershed had a significant declining trend from 1986 to 2013. The results of the relationship among PWER, climate change, and land‐use changes showed that climate change was the dominant control on the PWER change in this watershed. Compared to the period 1986–1995, the average PWER decreased 23.32% and 64.98% as a result of climate change in the periods 1996–2005 and 2006–2013, respectively. In contrast with climate change, the effects of land‐use changes on the average PWER were much lower, and represented a change in PWER of less than 3.3% across the whole watershed. The study method we used could provide some valuable reference for wind erosion modelling, and the research results should help climate and land‐use researchers to develop strategies to reduce wind erosion. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of climate change on diffuse pollutant fluxes at the watershed scale

This study aims to assess watershed‐scale impacts of changing climate on sediment, phosphorus, nitrogen and pesticide (atrazine) fluxes over the 21st century at the watershed scale. In particular, changes in dissolved and particulate forms of water quality constituents in response to climate change are investigated. The hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated and evaluated in a primarily agricultural watershed in the Midwestern United States to simulate hydrologic and water quality processes on a daily basis over the 2015–2099 time horizon. The model was then driven with 112 distinct statistically downscaled climate projections representing Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) low, moderate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Projected hydrologic and water quality responses were categorized according to the three IPCC SRES emission scenarios for summarizing and synthesizing results over early‐century (2015–2034), mid‐century (2045–2064) and late‐century (2080–2099) assessment. Results revealed clear warming trends in the study area, whereas small increases in precipitation were predicted. Streamflow, sediment and total nutrient loads did not differ noticeably between assessment periods. However, the proportion of dissolved to total nutrients increased significantly from early‐century to late‐century periods. With the exception of total atrazine in the mid‐century period, predicted pollutant loads for a given assessment period did not differ between emission pathways for a given assessment period. Changes in pollutant fluxes showed pronounced monthly variability. The projected increase in readily available forms of nutrients has important implications for the ecological health of water systems and management of drinking water supplies. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling atmospheric and hydrologic processes for assessment of meadow restoration impact on flow and sediment in a sparsely gauged California watershed

The restoration of meadowland using the pond and plug technique of gully elimination was performed in a 9‐mile segment along Last Chance Creek, Feather River Basin, California, in order to rehabilitate floodplain functions such as mitigating floods, retaining groundwater, and reducing sediment yield associated with bank erosion and to significantly alter the hydrologic regime. However, because the atmospheric and hydrological conditions have evolved over the restoration period, it was difficult to obtain a comprehensible evaluation of the impact of restoration activities by means of field measurements. In this paper, a new use of physically based models for environmental assessment is described. The atmospheric conditions over the sparsely gauged Last Chance Creek watershed (which does not have any precipitation or weather stations) during the combined historical critical dry and wet period (1982–1993) were reconstructed over the whole watershed using the atmospheric fifth‐generation mesoscale model driven with the US National Center for Atmospheric Research and US National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data. Using the downscaled atmospheric data as its input, the watershed environmental hydrology (WEHY) model was applied to this watershed. All physical parameters of the WEHY model were derived from the existing geographic information system and satellite‐driven data sets. By comparing the prerestoration and postrestoration simulation results under the identical atmospheric conditions, a more complete environmental assessment of the restoration project was made. Model results indicate that the flood peak may be reduced by 10–20% during the wet year and the baseflow may be enhanced by 10–20% during the following dry seasons (summer to fall) in the postrestoration condition. The model results also showed that the hydrologic impact of the land management associated with the restoration mitigates bank erosion and sediment discharge during winter storm events. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of climate change on streamflow in the arid Shiyang River Basin of northwest China

Climate change may significantly affect the hydrological cycle and water resource management, especially in arid and semi‐arid regions. In this paper, output from the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional climate model were used in conjunction with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to analyse the effects of climate change on streamflow of the Xiying and Zamu rivers in the Shiyang River basin, an important arid region in northwest China. After SWAT model calibration and validation, streamflow in the Shiyang River Basin was simulated using the PRECIS climate model data for greenhouse gas emission scenarios A2 (high emission rate) and B2 (low emission rate) developed by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Monthly streamflow and hydrological extremes were compared for present‐day years (1961–1990), the 2020s (2011–2040), 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100). The results show that mean monthly streamflow in Shiyang River Basin generally increased in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s between 0.7–6.1% at the Zamu gauging station and 0.1–4.8% at the Xiying gauging station. The monthly minimum streamflow increased persistently, but the maximum monthly streamflows increased in the 2020s and slightly decreased in the 2050s and 2080s. This study provides valuable information for guiding future water resource management in the Shiyang River Basin and other arid and semi‐arid regions in China. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating hydrologic effects of spatial and temporal patterns of forest canopy change using numerical modelling

Although hydrologic responses to land cover changes are often studied using a paired watershed approach, it is not feasible to assess the hydrological effects of many different patterns of land cover alteration by empirical studies alone. An alternative is to use well validated, spatially explicit, physically based numerical models to estimate watershed storage and flux dynamics. The objectives of this study were to assess the sensitivity of watershed flow regimes to several spatial and temporal patterns of forest harvest and recovery in a snow‐dominated mountain watershed. The Distributed Hydrology Soil‐Vegetation Model (DHSVM) was parameterized using 1998–2007 climate data for the 28‐km² Mica Creek Experimental Watershed (MCEW), a headwater catchment in the inland Pacific Northwest. The modelling experiment indicated that clear‐cutting the entire watershed would increase runoff volume by 79% and 5^th percentile flows by 68%. Hydrologic recovery resulting from forest regeneration after clear‐cut harvesting is expected to take up to 25 years to return to baseline conditions, and 50 years to fully recover to preharvest conditions. A more realistic harvesting scenario where the watershed was gradually harvested in a series of clear‐cut blocks allowing for subsequent regeneration to occur was also assessed. This approach reduced the magnitude of hydrologic alteration. Analysis of several other scenarios, defined by aspect, elevation, and distance to the stream network, revealed that flow regime was more sensitive to the amount of alteration rather than pattern and landscape position of disturbance. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Erodibility of cohesive streambeds in the loess area of the midwestern USA

Excess stress parameters, critical shear stress (τ_c) and erodibility coefficient (k_d), for degrading channels in the loess areas of the midwestern USA are presented based on in situ jet‐testing measurements. Critical shear stress and k_d are used to define the erosion resistance of the streambed. The jet‐testing apparatus applies hydraulic stresses to the bed and the resulting scour due to the impinging jet is related to the excess stress parameters. Streams tested were primarily silt‐bedded in texture with low densities, which is typical of loess soils. Results indicate that there is a wide variation in the erosion resistance of streambeds, spanning six orders of magnitude for τ_c and four orders of magnitude for k_d. Erosion resistance was observed to vary within a streambed, from streambed to streambed, and from region to region. An example of the diversity of materials within a river system is the Yalobusha River Basin in Mississippi. The median value of τ_c for the two primary bed materials, Naheola and Porters Creek Clay Formations, was 1·31 and 256 Pa, respectively. Streambeds composed of the Naheola Formation are readily eroded over the entire range of shear stresses, whereas only the deepest flows generate boundary stresses great enough to erode streambeds composed of the Porters Creek Clay Formation. Therefore, assessing material resistance and location is essential in classifying and modelling streambed erosion processes of these streams.     

Assessing drought threats to agricultural water supplies under climate change by combining the SWAT and MODSIM models for the Geum River basin,South Korea

ABSTRACT

The impacts of future climate change on the agricultural water supply capacities of irrigation facilities in the Geum River basin (9645.5 km²) of South Korea were investigated using an integrated modeling framework that included a water balance network model (MODSIM) and a watershed-scale hydrologic model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT). The discharges and baseflows from upland drainage areas were estimated using SWAT, and the predicted flow was used to feed agricultural reservoirs and multipurpose dams in subwatersheds. Using a split sampling method, we calibrated the daily streamflows and dam inflows at three locations using data from 6 years, including 3 years of calibration data (2005–2007) followed by 3 years of validation data (2008–2010). In the MODSIM model, the entire basin was divided into 14 subwatersheds in which various agricultural irrigation facilities such as agricultural reservoirs, pumping stations, diversions, culverts and groundwater wells were defined as a network of hydraulic structures within each subwatershed. These hydraulic networks between subwatersheds were inter-connected to allow watershed-scale analysis and were further connected to municipal and industrial water supplies under various hydrologic conditions. Projected climate data from the HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the period of 2006–2099 were imported to SWAT to calculate the water yield, and the output was transferred to MODSIM in the form of time-series boundary conditions. The maximum shortage rate of agricultural water was estimated as 38.2% for the 2040s and 2080s under the RCP 4.5 scenario but was lower under the RCP 8.5 scenario (21.3% in the 2040s and 22.1% in the 2080s). Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the projected shortage rate was higher than that during the measured baseline period (1982–2011) of 25.6% and the RCP historical period (1982–2005) of 30.1%. The future elevated drought levels are primarily attributed to the increasingly concentrated rainfall distribution throughout the year under a monsoonal climate, as projected by the IPCC climate scenarios.

EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Integrating downscaled CMIP5 data with a physically based hydrologic model to estimate potential climate change impacts on streamflow processes in a mixed‐use watershed

Climatic changes have altered surface water regimes worldwide, and climate projections suggest that such alterations will continue. To inform management decisions, climate projections must be paired with hydrologic models to develop quantitative estimates of watershed scale water regime changes. Such modeling approaches often involve downscaling climate model outputs, which are generally presented at coarse spatial scales. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model projections were analyzed to determine models representing severe and conservative climate scenarios for the study watershed. Based on temperature and precipitation projections, output from GFDL‐ESM2G (representative concentration pathway 2.6) and MIROC‐ESM (representative concentration pathway 8.5) were selected to represent conservative (Δ_C) and severe (Δ_S) change scenarios, respectively. Climate data were used as forcing for the soil and water assessment tool to analyze the potential effects of climate change on hydrologic processes in a mixed‐use watershed in central Missouri, USA. Results showed annual streamflow decreases ranging from ?5.9% to ?26.8% and evapotranspiration (ET) increases ranging from +7.2% to +19.4%. During the mid‐21st century, sizeable decreases to summer streamflow were observed under both scenarios, along with large increases of fall, spring, and summer ET under Δ_S. During the late 21st century period, large decreases of summer streamflow under both scenarios, and large increases to spring (Δ_S), fall (Δ_S) and summer (Δ_C) ET were observed. This study demonstrated the sensitivity of a Midwestern watershed to future climatic changes utilizing projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models and presented an approach that used multiple climate model outputs to characterize potential watershed scale climate impacts.     

Assessing the effects of land cover and future climate conditions on the provision of hydrological services in a medium‐sized watershed of Portugal

The separated and combined effects of land‐cover scenarios and future climate on the provision of hydrological services were evaluated in Vez watershed, northern Portugal. Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated against daily discharge, sediments and nitrates, with good agreements between model predictions and field observations. Four hypothetical land‐cover scenarios were applied under current climate conditions (eucalyptus/pine, oak, agriculture/vine and low vegetation). A statistical downscaling of four General Circulation Models, bias‐corrected with ground observations, was carried out for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060, using representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario. Also, the combined effects of future climate conditions were evaluated under eucalyptus/pine and agriculture/vine scenario. Results for land cover revealed that eucalyptus/pine scenario reduced by 7% the annual water quantity and up to 17% in the summer period. Although climate change has only a modest effect on the reduction of the total annual discharge (?7%), the effect on the water levels during summer was more pronounced, between ?15% and ?38%. This study shows that climate change can affect the provision of hydrological services by reducing dry season flows and by increasing flood risks during the wet months. Regarding the combined effects, future climate may reduce the low flows, which can be aggravated with eucalyptus/pine scenario. In turn, peak flows and soil erosion can be offset. Future climate may increase soil erosion and nitrate concentration, which can be aggravated with agriculture scenario. Results moreover emphasize the need to consider both climate and land‐cover impacts in adaptation and land management options at the watershed scale. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological footprints of urban developments in the Lake Simcoe watershed,Canada: a combined paired‐catchment and change detection modelling approach

Urban sprawl and regional climate variability are major stresses on surface water resources in many places. The Lake Simcoe watershed (LSW) Ontario, Canada, is no exception. The LSW is predominantly agricultural but is experiencing rapid population growth because of its proximity to the Greater Toronto area. This has led to extensive land use changes that have impacted its water resources and altered run‐off patterns in some rivers draining to the lake. Here, we use a paired‐catchment approach, hydrological change detection modelling and remote sensing analysis of satellite images to evaluate the impacts of land use change on the hydrology of the LSW (1994 to 2008). Results show that urbanization increased up to 16% in Lovers Creek, the most urban‐impacted catchment. Annual run‐off from Lovers Creek increased from 239 to 442 mm/year in contrast to the reference catchment (Black River at Washago) where run‐off was relatively stable with an annual mean of 474 mm/year. Increased annual run‐off from Lovers Creek was not accompanied by an increase in annual precipitation. Discriminant function analysis suggests that early (1992–1997; pre‐major development) and late (2004–2009; fully urbanized) periods for Lovers Creek separated mainly based on model parameter sets related to run‐off flashiness and evapotranspiration. As a result, parameterization in either period cannot be used interchangeably to produce credible run‐off simulations in Lovers Creek because of greater scatter between the parameters in canonical space. Separation of early and late‐period parameter sets for the reference catchment was based on climate and snowmelt‐related processes. This suggests that regional climatic variability could be influencing hydrologic change in the reference catchment, whereas urbanization amplified the regional natural hydrologic changes in urbanizing catchments of the LSW. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of hydrologic impacts of climate change in Tunga–Bhadra river basin,India with HEC‐HMS and SDSM

Climate change would significantly affect many hydrologic systems, which in turn would affect the water availability, runoff, and the flow in rivers. This study evaluates the impacts of possible future climate change scenarios on the hydrology of the catchment area of the Tunga–Bhadra River, upstream of the Tungabhadra dam. The Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System version 3.4 (HEC‐HMS 3.4) is used for the hydrological modelling of the study area. Linear‐regression‐based Statistical DownScaling Model version 4.2 (SDSM 4.2) is used to downscale the daily maximum and minimum temperature, and daily precipitation in the four sub‐basins of the study area. The large‐scale climate variables for the A2 and B2 scenarios obtained from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 are used. After model calibration and testing of the downscaling procedure, the hydrological model is run for the three future periods: 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099. The impacts of climate change on the basin hydrology are assessed by comparing the present and future streamflow and the evapotranspiration estimates. Results of the water balance study suggest increasing precipitation and runoff and decreasing actual evapotranspiration losses over the sub‐basins in the study area. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

River ice cover influence on sediment transportation at present and under projected hydroclimatic conditions

A large number of rivers are frozen annually, and the river ice cover has an influence on the geomorphological processes. These processes in cohesive sediment rivers are not fully understood. Therefore, this paper demonstrates the impact of river ice cover on sediment transport, i.e. turbidity, suspended sediment loads and erosion potential, compared with a river with ice‐free flow conditions. The present sediment transportation conditions during the annual cycle are analysed, and the implications of climate change on wintertime geomorphological processes are estimated. A one‐dimensional hydrodynamic model has been applied to the Kokemäenjoki River in Southwest Finland. The shear stress forces directed to the river bed are simulated with present and projected hydroclimatic conditions. The results of shear stress simulations indicate that a thermally formed smooth ice cover diminishes river bed erosion, compared with an ice‐free river with similar discharges. Based on long‐term field data, the river ice cover reduces turbidity statistically significantly. Furthermore, suspended sediment concentrations measured in ice‐free and ice‐covered river water reveal a diminishing effect of ice cover on riverine sediment load. The hydrodynamic simulations suggest that the influence of rippled ice cover on shear stress is varying. Climate change is projected to increase the winter discharges by 27–77% on average by 2070–2099. Thus, the increasing winter discharges and possible diminishing ice cover periods both increase the erosion potential of the river bed. Hence, the wintertime sediment load of the river is expected to become larger in the future. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CMIP5多模式集合对东北三省未来气候变化的预估研究

应用CN05观测资料,以及参与国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段(CMIP5)中的26个模式,评估了新一代全球气候模式对东北三省气候变化模拟能力并选出4个较优模式,发现经过筛选得出的较优模式集合平均模拟结果的可靠性得到进一步加强,尤其体现在对气温的模拟上.在此基础上着重分析了多模式集合在不同典型浓度路径(RCPs)下对未来气候变化特征的预估.结果表明:21世纪的未来阶段,东北三省将处于显著增温的状态,且RCP8.5情景下的增温速率(0.53℃/10a)明显高于RCP4.5情景下的速率(0.22℃/10a);空间上,北部地区将成为增温幅度最大、增温速率最高的区域.未来降水将会相对增加,但波动较大,21世纪末期RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下的降水增加幅度分别为11.24%和15.95%;空间上,辽宁省西部地区将成为降水增加最为显著的区域.根据水分盈亏量,21世纪未来阶段,RCP4.5情景下的东北三省绝大多数地区未来将相对变湿,尤其到了中后期;RCP8.5情景下则是中西部地区将相对变干,其余地区则会相对变湿.     

Distributed modelling of future changes in hydrological processes of Spencer Creek watershed

The hydrologic impact of climate change has been largely assessed using mostly conceptual hydrologic models. This study investigates the use of distributed hydrologic model for the assessment of the climate change impact for the Spencer Creek watershed in Southern Ontario (Canada). A coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 hydrologic model is developed to represent the complex hydrologic conditions in the Spencer Creek watershed, and later to simulate climate change impact using Canadian global climate model (CGCM 3·1) simulations. Owing to the coarse resolution of GCM data (daily GCM outputs), statistical downscaling techniques are used to generate higher resolution data (daily precipitation and temperature series). The modelling results show that the coupled model captured the snow storage well and also provided good simulation of evapotranspiration (ET) and groundwater recharge. The simulated streamflows are consistent with the observed flows at different sites within the catchment. Using a conservative climate change scenario, the downscaled GCM scenarios predicted an approximately 14–17% increase in the annual mean precipitation and 2–3 °C increase in annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures for the 2050s (i.e., 2046–2065). When the downscaled GCM scenarios were used in the coupled model, the model predicted a 1–5% annual decrease in snow storage for 2050s, approximately 1–10% increase in annual ET, and a 0·5–6% decrease in the annual groundwater recharge. These results are consistent with the downscaled temperature results. For future streamflows, the coupled model indicated an approximately 10–25% increase in annual streamflows for all sites, which is consistent with the predicted changes in precipitation. Overall, it is shown that distributed hydrologic modelling can provide useful information not only about future changes in streamflow but also changes in other key hydrologic processes such as snow storage, ET, and groundwater recharge, which can be particularly important depending on the climatic region of concern. The study results indicate that the coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 hydrologic model could be a particularly useful tool for understanding the integrated effect of climate change in complex catchment scale hydrology. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Implications of decadal to century scale glacio‐hydrological change for water resources of the Hood River basin,OR, USA

In glacier‐fed rivers, melting of glacier ice sustains streamflow during the driest times of the year, especially during drought years. Anthropogenic and ecologic systems that rely on this glacial buffering of low flows are vulnerable to glacier recession as temperatures rise. We demonstrate the evolution of glacier melt contribution in watershed hydrology over the course of a 184‐year period from 1916 to 2099 through the application of a coupled hydrological and glacier dynamics model to the Hood River basin in Northwest Oregon, USA. We performed continuous simulations of glaciological processes (mass accumulation and ablation, lateral flow of ice and heat conduction through supra‐glacial debris), which are directly linked with seasonal snow dynamics as well as other key hydrologic processes (e.g. evapotranspiration and subsurface flow). Our simulations show that historically, the contribution of glacier melt to basin water supply was up to 79% at upland water management locations. We also show that supraglacial debris cover on the Hood River glaciers modulates the rate of glacier recession and progression of dry season flow at upland stream locations with debris‐covered glaciers. Our model results indicate that dry season (July to September) discharge sourced from glacier melt started to decline early in the 21st century following glacier recession that started early in the 20th century. Changes in climate over the course of the current century will lead to 14–63% (18–78%) reductions in dry season discharge across the basin for IPCC emission pathway RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). The largest losses will be at upland drainage locations of water diversions that were dominated historically by glacier melt and seasonal snowmelt. The contribution of glacier melt varies greatly not only in space but also in time. It displays a strong decadal scale fluctuations that are super‐imposed on the effects of a long‐term climatic warming trend. This decadal variability results in reversals in trends in glacier melt, which underscore the importance of long‐time series of glacio‐hydrologic analyses for evaluating the hydrological response to glacier recession. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate change impact on Caspian Sea wave conditions in the Noshahr Port

Excessive usage of fossil fuels and high emission of greenhouse gases have increased the earth’s temperature and consequently have led to changes in wind and wave regimes. The main effects of climate change on oceans are warming of the ocean water, melting of ice, acidification of ocean water, and change in the ocean currents. The main effects of climate change on coastal regions are change in the coast hydrodynamics, sea level rise, change in wave height, coastal erosion, coastal structure damage, food shortage, and storms. Due to the importance of waves in the coastal zone and its effect on erosion and sedimentation, it is necessary to study wave changes. In this study, the effect of climate change on wave specifications was evaluated in the southern coast of the Caspian Sea in Noshahr Port. To simulate wave parameters, the third generation spectral Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) model was used. Wave modeling was carried out using the SWAN numerical model for two 30-yearly periods, including the control period (1984 to 2014) and the future period (2051 to 2080). For wave modeling in the control period, the European Center for Average Weather Forecast wind field was used, and for the future period, a downscaled wind field from Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment projection, which was sponsored by World Climate Research Programme, based on the most recent emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, was used. The model results were calibrated and verified with buoy-recorded data. The effect of the climate change on the wave parameters was evaluated by studying the differences between the patterns in three scenarios and the control period. Results showed that the 30-year maximum significant wave height will increase because of climate change, and the wave direction will not change. In addition, the intensity of storms will increase in the future.

     

Comparative streamflow characteristics in urbanizing basins in the Portland Metropolitan Area,Oregon, USA

This study investigates changes in streamflow characteristics for urbanizing watersheds in the Portland Metropolitan Area of Oregon for the period from 1951 to 2000. The objective of this study was to assess how mean annual runoff ratio, mean seasonal runoff ratio, annual peak runoff ratio, changes in streamflow in response to storm amount, the fraction of time that the daily mean flow exceeds the annual mean flow, 3‐day recession constants, and dry/wet flow ratio vary among watersheds with different degrees of urban development. There were no statistically significant changes in annual runoff ratio and annual peak runoff ratio for the mixed land‐use watershed (Tualatin River watershed) and the urban watershed (Johnson Creek watershed) during the entire study period. The Tualatin River watershed, where most of the urban development occurred in a lower part of the watershed, showed a statistically significant increase in annual peak runoff ratio during the 1976 and 2000 period. The Upper Tualatin River watershed illustrated a significant decrease in annual peak runoff ratio for the entire study period. With significant differences in seasonal runoff ratio, only Johnson Creek exhibited a significant increase in both wet and dry season runoff ratios. Streamflow during storm events declined rapidly in the urban watershed, with a high 3‐day recession constant. At an event storm scale, streamflow in Fanno Creek, which is the most urbanized watershed, responded quickly to precipitation input. The fraction of time that the daily mean flow exceeded the annual mean flow and dry/wet flow ratio are all lower in Johnson Creek. This suggests a shorter duration of storm runoff and lower baseflow in the urbanized watershed when compared to the mixed land use watershed. The findings of this study demonstrate the importance of spatial and temporal scale, climate variability, and basin physiographic characteristics in detecting the hydrologic effects of urbanization in the Pacific Northwest of the USA. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Three‐dimensional flow structure and patterns of bed shear stress in an evolving compound meander bend

Compound meander bends with multiple lobes of maximum curvature are common in actively evolving lowland rivers. Interaction among spatial patterns of mean flow, turbulence, bed morphology, bank failures and channel migration in compound bends is poorly understood. In this paper, acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) measurements of the three‐dimensional (3D) flow velocities in a compound bend are examined to evaluate the influence of channel curvature and hydrologic variability on the structure of flow within the bend. Flow structure at various flow stages is related to changes in bed morphology over the study timeframe. Increases in local curvature within the upstream lobe of the bend reduce outer bank velocities at morphologically significant flows, creating a region that protects the bank from high momentum flow and high bed shear stresses. The dimensionless radius of curvature in the upstream lobe is one‐third less than that of the downstream lobe, with average bank erosion rates less than half of the erosion rates for the downstream lobe. Higher bank erosion rates within the downstream lobe correspond to the shift in a core of high velocity and bed shear stresses toward the outer bank as flow moves through the two lobes. These erosion patterns provide a mechanism for continued migration of the downstream lobe in the near future. Bed material size distributions within the bend correspond to spatial patterns of bed shear stress magnitudes, indicating that bed material sorting within the bend is governed by bed shear stress. Results suggest that patterns of flow, sediment entrainment, and planform evolution in compound meander bends are more complex than in simple meander bends. Moreover, interactions among local influences on the flow, such as woody debris, local topographic steering, and locally high curvature, tend to cause compound bends to evolve toward increasing planform complexity over time rather than stable configurations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Alteration of hydrologic indicators for Korean catchments under CMIP5 climate projections

The change of hydrological regimes may cause impacts on human and natural system. Therefore, investigation of hydrologic alteration induced by climate change is essential for preparing timely proper adaptation to the changes. This study employed 24 climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. The climate projections were downscaled at a station‐spacing for seven Korean catchments by a statistical downscaling method that preserves a long‐term trend in climate projections. Using an ensemble of future hydrologic projections simulated by three conceptual rainfall‐runoff models (GR4J, IHACRES, and Sacramento models), we calculated Hydrologic Alteration Factors (HAFs) to investigate degrees of variations in Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHAs) derived from the hydrologic projections. The results showed that the seven catchments had similar trend in terms of the HAFs for the 24 IHAs. Given that more frequent severe floods and droughts were projected over Korean catchments, sound water supply strategies are definitely required to adapt to the alteration of streamflow. A wide range of HAFs between rainfall‐runoff models for each catchment was detected by large variations in the magnitude of HAFs with the hydrologic models and the difference could be the hydrologic prediction uncertainty. There were no‐consistent tendency in the order of HAFs between the hydrologic models. In addition, we found that the alterations of hydrologic regimes by climate change are smaller as the size of catchment is larger. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of climate on alpine stream chemistry and water sources

The resilience of alpine/subalpine watersheds may be viewed as the resistance of streamflow or stream chemistry to change under varying climatic conditions, which is governed by the relative size (volume) and transit time of surface and subsurface water sources. Here, we use end‐member mixing analysis in Andrews Creek, an alpine stream in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, from water year 1994 to 2015, to explore how the partitioning of water sources and associated hydrologic resilience change in response to climate. Our results indicate that four water sources are significant contributors to Andrews Creek, including snow, rain, soil water, and talus groundwater. Seasonal patterns in source‐water contributions reflected the seasonal hydrologic cycle, which is driven by the accumulation and melting of seasonal snowpack. Flushing of soil water had a large effect on stream chemistry during spring snowmelt, despite making only a small contribution to streamflow volume. Snow had a large influence on stream chemistry as well, contributing large amounts of water with low concentrations of weathering products. Interannual patterns in end‐member contributions reflected responses to drought and wet periods. Moderate and significant correlations exist between annual end‐member contributions and regional‐scale climate indices (the Palmer Drought Severity Index, the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index, and the Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index). From water year 1994 to 2015, the percent contribution from the talus‐groundwater end member to Andrews Creek increased an average of 0.5% per year (p < 0.0001), whereas the percent contributions from snow plus rain decreased by a similar amount (p = 0.001). Our results show how water and solute sources in alpine environments shift in response to climate variability and highlight the role of talus groundwater and soil water in providing hydrologic resilience to the system.