Modeling and forecasting the aftershock processes in Kamchatka

The aftershock processes that occurred in 1990–2008 on the Kamchatka Peninsula and in the adjacent water area are numerically modeled with the aim of forecasting the aftershock activity. The aftershocks are identified by the Molchan-Dmitrieva algorithm followed by the analysis of spatiotemporal distribution of the earthquakes, which gives the final aftershock sequences. The simulations are based on the relaxation and triggering models of the aftershock processes. The studied models adequately describe and reliably simulate the temporal behavior of the aftershock sequences. An attempt is made to forecast the aftershock processes in Kamchatka using the ETAS model. It is shown that forecasting based on the data observed during the preceding time intervals is quite accurate. This approach can be applied in the centers of seismological monitoring for estimating the aftershock activity within the first days after a strong earthquake.

     

基于应力变化的余震预测研究综述

本文综述了近期基于应力变化的余震预测研究进展。从静态库仑应力触发角度对余震活动进行研究主要有两方面内容:一是集中于对主震触发余震机制的讨论;二是通过库仑应力变化分布区域与实际余震空间分布区域进行定性对比分析,并认为库仑应力变化为正的区域有利于余震的发生,而这正是余震活动与应力变化高度相关的重要证据。基于应力变化的余震预测研究的一项重要内容是建立在速率-状态依从摩擦定律基础之上的余震活动率研究,即将余震活动作为一系列独立的成核事件,从断层滑动触发地震的角度出发,结合静态库仑应力计算得到余震活动率,进而得到余震数量。余震活动是与断层面上的剪切应力变化相关联的,余震活动率受应力扰动幅度、应力加载速率、断层基本物理特性及背景地震活动率等的影响。考虑到“余震激发余震”的特点,ETAS 模型与静态库仑应力变化相结合的研究方法提供了一条统计学与物理学方法(应力变化)相结合、能更完整地刻画余震活动特征的可能途径。     

Electric and electromagnetic processes in the near-Earth atmosphere before earthquakes on Kamchatka

Simultaneous records of the diurnal variations in the quasistatic electric field in the near-Earth atmosphere, fluxes of discrete electromagnetic pulses in the VLF band, source azimuths, narrowband filter output emission intensity at frequencies of 4.65 and 5.3 kHz, and time forms and spectra of VLF pulses have been analyzed. The anomalous behavior of these parameters in October 2002 and August 2004 with different time delay was accompanied by earthquakes near the southeastern coast of Kamchatka at distances of 250–400 km from the registration points. Based on the results of a fine frequency-time analysis of the broadband records of VLF signals, it has been indicated for the first time that discrete electromagnetic pulses observed in anomalous fluxes before earthquakes were signals of local thunderstorm processes.     

Determination of source parameters of strong earthquakes of Kamchatka,the Kurile Islands,and Japan from aftershock sequences

Aftershock sequences of some strong earthquakes of Kamchatka, the Kurile Islands, and Japan are examined. Such source parameters as the length L, along-dip width W, motion on fault D, and stress drop Δσ are determined from the aftershock sequences considered. The values of these parameters were obtained by the formal estimation of linear source parameters (lower bound estimates) and visually (upper bound estimates). The correlation dependences of the obtained parameters on the surface wave (M _S ) and seismic moment (M _W ) magnitudes are calculated.     

中国大陆强震的早期余震概率预测效能评估与制约因素

为系统地考察中国大陆地区强震之后的早期余震概率预测效能及制约因素,以期开展适合板内地震活跃地区的"可操作"强余震概率预测,服务震后抗震救灾、应急救援等工作,本文采用充分利用震后早期小震信息的Omi-R-J模型对中国大陆的86个强震序列进行系统性的预测效能评估.通过连续分段滑动、拟合和余震发生率预测,对地震序列的早期模型参数、余震预测限度及其制约因素进行了讨论,并利用N-test检验方法开展了分级分段分档预测结果的效能评估.通过对比1天和30天数据拟合参数的相关性发现,b、k、c具有较强的相关性,差别较小,而p值的相关性较弱,这或许和p值表示余震活动在长期内的衰减特性有关,Omi-R-J模型可在震后早期记录相对不完整的阶段更早的获得较为稳定的序列参数;利用Omi-R-J模型对中国大陆强震序列的预测结果显示,Omi-R-J模型对中国大陆早期的强余震具有较好的预测能力,总的预测有效率为81.16%,平均预测有效率为83.82%,预测过少的比例大于预测过多的比例,早期序列发育较差或监测能力有限的区域,其预测效果受到很大制约;地震序列参数k是影响地震数目的关键因素,而地震序列发育程度可能是影响震后0.05天地震预测效率的重要因素之一.     

Stratospheric aerosol dynamics over Kamchatka and its association with geophysical processes

The dynamics of aerosol layers in comparison with geomagnetic and ionospheric data has been studied based on the nighttime single-frequency lidar sounding of the atmosphere over Kamchatka at altitudes of 10 to 90 km. The relation of the aerosol density to solar, magnetic, and ionospheric activity has been studied, and the stratospheric aerosol formation mechanisms have been considered. It has been indicated that variations in the aerosol density correlate with radiowave absorption, perturbations of the ionospheric parameters, and geomagnetic characteristics. The spatial and time scales of aerosol layers have been estimated. The role of stratospheric aerosol as an indicator of geophysical processes is discussed.     

对汶川地震余震序列中最大余震事件的讨论

本文针对2008年5月12日四川汶川M_W7.9地震后的余震目录,采用2004年Shcherbakov和Turcotte提出的最大余震震级推断法,给出了最大余震震级的估计值。结果表明,采用现有的余震数据,在大震级区间可能存在一定数量的余震缺失,这造成了余震数据与Gutenberg-Richter定律曲线在大震级区间的差异,导致推断的最大余震震级与使用目录中的最大余震震级存在明显差异。利用震级与断层长度或地表破裂长度之间的经验关系可以看出,由灌县—江油断裂的破裂尺度得到的震级与推断最大余震震级基本一致。根据前人给出的断层摩擦失稳时间模型和Brune近断层质点运动模型,本文进一步探讨了汶川地震北川—映秀断裂对灌县—江油断裂的触发作用,认为北川—映秀断裂破裂所辐射出的S波可以在短时间内使得灌县—江油断裂发生失稳,进而产生宏观破裂并形成地震,因此由灌县—江油断裂破裂形成的地震可能为汶川地震的最大余震。      

On the applicability of the RETAS model for forecasting aftershock probability in underground mines (Kiirunavaara Mine,Sweden)

Aftershock series of even comparatively small seismic events can pose a risk to the mining operation or the personnel in deep underground mines as the main shocks and some of the aftershocks can cause damage in the rock mass. Stochastic modeling was applied in this study for the analysis of the temporal evolution of aftershock occurrence probability during a M1.85 aftershock sequence in Kiirunavaara Mine, Sweden. The Restricted Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (RETAS) model was chosen for estimation of the aftershock occurrence probability. This model considers all events with magnitude above the magnitude of completeness M₀ and has the advantage of including the Modified Omori Formula (MOF) model and Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model as its end versions, considering also all intermediate models. The model was applied sequentially to data samples covering cumulative periods of time, starting from the first 2 h after the main event and increasing them by 2 h until the period covered the entire 72-h sequence. For each sample, the best-fit RETAS version was identified and the probability of a M?≥?0.5 aftershock for every next 2 h was determined through Monte Carlo simulation. The feasibility of the resulting probability evolution for suspension and re-starting of the mining operations was discussed together with possible prospects for future development of the methodology.

     

变化地磁场预测的支持向量机建模

变化地磁场建模与预测是地磁导航、空间环境监测等领域的重要研究课题.由于变化地磁场属于日地系统中的一部分,受多种因素的制约影响,且其变化本身也具有较强的前后相关性.本文综合空间和地面监测数据,以变化地磁场地面观测数据、地方时、太阳射电流量和行星际磁场南向分量等为输入,采用支持向量机方法,建立了变化地磁场综合模型,并进行预测.结果表明,在地磁活动Kp指数小于4时,预测3 h平均绝对误差小于1.61 nT.     

Hydrothermal clays and pyrite in geothermal fields: Their significance for the geochemistry of present-day endogenous processes in southern Kamchatka

The studies reported in this paper were carried out in the Pauzhetka and Nizhne-Koshelevskii geothermal fields situated in the southern Kamchatka Peninsula within the Pauzhetka-Kambalnyi-Koshelevskii geothermal area. Layer-by-layer sampling of clays was carried out by stripping, pitting, and hand-operated drilling of core holes in the Verkhne-Pauzhetka thermal field and the Nizhne-Koshelevskii thermal anomaly, which were studied previously using several geological, geophysical, and hydrogeothermal techniques. Hydrothermal clays were found to compose a nearly continuous sheet on the surface of the thermal field and of the thermal anomaly. The sheet has an average thickness of 1.3 to 1.5 m. The chemical and mineralogic composition of the clays have been characterized. The concentrations of Au, Hg, Pb, and Ag (a total of 41 elements) were determined in clay layers selected every 15–20 cm in vertical sections. The elements show inhomogeneous distributions, both along the strike and in vertical sections of the hydrothermal clay sheet, which can be accounted for by the physicochemical, hydrogeochemical, and temperature conditions prevailing during the generation of these clays in specific areas of the thermal fields. It was found that the hydrothermal clay sheet lying on the ground surface of the geothermal fields has a significance of its own as an independent geological body, not only is it an aquifer and a heat-isolating horizon; it also serves as a dynamically active geochemical barrier in the structure of the present-day hydrothermal system. Pyrite is a concentrator of ore elements in hydrothermal clays, in addition to sulfates of Ca, Fe, Mg, Ba, and Al, and (possibly) alumosilicates.     

Major and trace element zoning in plagioclase from Kizimen Volcano (Kamchatka): Insights into magma-chamber processes

The data on the geochemistry of the rocks of Kizimen Volcano and results of microprobe studies of major and trace elements in plagioclase grains from acid lavas and basalt inclusions are presented. The characteristics of the Kizimen Volcano are the following: (1) basalt inclusions are abundant in acid lavas; (2) banded, mixed lavas occur; (3) the distribution curves of rare-earth elements of acidic lavas and basalt inclusions intersect; (4) Sr-Nd isotope systematics of the rocks and inclusions do not indicate mixture with crustal material; (5) plagioclase phenocrysts are of direct and reverse zonation; (6) olivine and hornblende, as well as acid and mafic plagioclases, coexist in the rocks. The studies revealed that the rocks are of a hybrid nature and originated in the course of repeated mixture of acid and mafic melts either with chemical and thermal interaction of melts or exclusively thermal ones. Study of the major- and trace-element distribution in zonal minerals provides an informative tool for understanding the history of the generation and evolution of melts in a magma chamber.     

Asperity Distribution of the 1952 Great Kamchatka Earthquake and its Relation to Future Earthquake Potential in Kamchatka

—The 1952 Kamchatka earthquake is among the largest earthquakes of this century, with an estimated magnitude of M _w = 9.0. We inverted tide gauge records from Japan, North America, the Aleutians, and Hawaii for the asperity distribution. The results show two areas of high slip. The average slip is over 3 m, giving a seismic moment estimate of 155×10²⁰Nm, or M _w = 8.8. The 20th century seismicity of the 1952 rupture zone shows a strong correlation to the asperity distribution, which suggests that the large earthquakes (M > 7) are controlled by the locations of the asperities and that future large earthquakes will also recur in the asperity regions.     

地震危险性评价中余震活动的影响--以邢台余震区为例

目前通用的地震危险性模型在确定有关地震活动性参数时都强调删除余震,其理由是因为所应用的地震活动模型是泊松模型。但是在现实的地震灾害中,有些是因为余震活动所引起的。忽略余震活动的影响,可能会低估某些区域的地震危险。本文提出考虑余震活动的地震危险性分析模型,并从此模型出发,以邢台地震为例,对余震区内、余震区边界和余震区外等场点计算了考虑余震活动的地震危险性结果,同时,在原有模型的基础上,只改变余震区所处的潜在震源区的地震年发生率,计算相同场点的地震危险性结果,并把这两个结果与不考虑余震活动的结果进行比较,在此基础上讨论在某些区域考虑余震活动的必要性。     

Strongest Earthquake-Prone Areas in Kamchatka

The paper continues the series of our works on recognizing the areas prone to the strongest, strong, and significant earthquakes with the use of the Formalized Clustering And Zoning (FCAZ) intellectual clustering system. We recognized the zones prone to the probable emergence of epicenters of the strongest (M ≥ 74/3) earthquakes on the Pacific Coast of Kamchatka. The FCAZ-zones are compared to the zones that were recognized in 1984 by the classical recognition method for Earthquake-Prone Areas (EPA) by transferring the criteria of high seismicity from the Andes mountain belt to the territory of Kamchatka. The FCAZ recognition was carried out with two-dimensional and three-dimensional objects of recognition.     

The Gorkha earthquake of April 25, 2015 in Nepal: Tectonic position,aftershock process,and possibilities of forecasting the evolution of seismic situation

The characteristics of the foci for the main shock and strongest aftershocks of the Gorkha earthquake of April 25, 2015 in Nepal are described. The macroseismic data and examples of seismic dislocations are discussed. The progression of the release of seismic energy by the aftershock process is analyzed. The data for the geophysical and seismological precursors of the main shock and the strongest aftershock of May 12, 2015 are presented. These data allowed us to formulate the short-term forecast of this event.     

The aftershock dynamics of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake

The aftershocks of the catastrophic Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004 (M = 9.0) are analyzed in the general context of the theory of critical phenomena. The analysis relies on the idea that, according to this theory, critical transitions have two key properties. The first is that the intensity of the fluctuations in a dynamical system monotonically increases with the approach of the bifurcation point, so that at a certain time instant, a sufficiently strong internal pulse initiates the catastrophe. This transition can be treated as spontaneous. The second property is that the reactance of the dynamical system drastically increases on the approach of the bifurcation. Even a weak external perturbation in the near-threshold interval can result in a catastrophe. In this case, it is reasonable to refer to the critical transition as an induced transition. The aftershocks of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake are likely to demonstrate the typical features of induced seismicity. First, the strongest aftershock (M = 7.2) occurred 3 h 20 min after the main shock. It could have probably been induced by the round-trip seismic echo. Second, it was found that the spectral density of the aftershock sequence significantly increases at about ～0.3 mHz, which is close to the frequency of the spheroidal mode ₀S₂. This suggests that the spheroidal oscillations of the Earth, which are excited by the main seismic shock, modulate the aftershock activity. Both hypotheses are supported by the analysis of the aftershocks of the Tohoku earthquake of March 11, 2011 (M = 9.0).     

Record-breaking warming in the Kamchatka Current halocline

Ocean Dynamics - We used historical CTD observations and Argo data to obtain the characteristics of the Kamchatka Current halocline and its eddies. Kamchatka Current eddies have a cold low salinity...     

Earthquake distribution and volcanism in Kamchatka,Kurile Islands,and Hokkaido Part 1: Kamchatka and northern Kuriles

Summary The morphology of the Wadati-Benioff zone in the region of Kamchatka and Northern Kuriles, based on the distribution of 1102 earthquake foci, verified the existence of an intermediate depth aseismic gap and its relation to active andesitic volcanism. A system of deep seismically active fracture zones, genetically connected with the process of subduction, was delineated in the continental plate and confirmed by the results of deep seismic sounding. Two of these fractures, dipping toward the subduction zone, may be considered as the principal feeding channels for active and Holocene volcanoes of the continental volcanic belts of Kamchatka.