长江三峡水库区云阳县典型滑坡变形监测分析

采用2004年云阳县滑坡监测数据和降雨量资料,统计了滑坡与降雨的关系。并以杨柳磅滑坡、裂口山滑坡为例,对其深部位移、地表变形与降雨的关系进行了初步分析。云阳县位于三峡西段,为地质灾害多发区。该县每年5月进入雨季,降雨次数增多,降雨强度加大。2004年暴雨有9次,每次都使滑坡出现了异常。特别是6月和9月暴雨,造成了地表较大的宏观变形。变形出现最多的月份与暴雨出现频次最多的月份相一致。随着降雨强度加大,滑坡数明显增多。研究表明当降雨量大于10mm以上时,就有滑坡出现裂缝、错台及深部位移;当降雨量在50mm以上时,滑坡异常的情况增多,甚至出现土流;平缓的地层在暴雨后易形成极大的孔隙水压力而导致滑坡活动;同时,由于页岩、泥岩遇水后易泥化、软化,产生了顺层滑动;大暴雨后,丰富的地表水渗入地下,突然增大的地下水使结构松散的堆积体含水量增加、岩土强度指标降低,造成了局部变形。由于受地理环境等多方面因素的影响,滑坡体的规模与降雨强度大小没有明显的规律。根据宏观地质调查和钻探资料,裂口山滑坡、杨柳磅滑坡上部地层有超过15m厚的粉质粘土夹块石,下部地层有碎裂砂岩和泥岩。在降雨较大的情况下,水通过裂隙进入,使泥岩、粘土层变软,容易失稳。     

Statistical distribution of rainy events characteristics and instantaneous hyetographs generation (Merguellil watershed in central Tunisia)

In semi-arid regions, variability of rainfall inputs is high at different time and space scales. Thus, intense and highly variable hydro-meteorological events, which generate both potential resource and hazards, are of major interest. The Merguellil watershed is characterized by a large majority of rainfall in the form of storms, particularly violent in spring and autumn. Storms of summer are short and violent and can be the origin of important floods. Due to the strong rainfall variability, precipitation and hydrological regime are very irregular. This is what led us to think of a detailed study of rainy events. It was founded that two statistical distributions of parameters characterizing events are dominated (log normal, exponential).Thus, our objective consists in studying, in its globality, the collected pluviographic data in order to make a synthesis and analysis which should make it possible the generation of fictitious events to better control the rainfall risk and to study the response of the watershed faces to several types of rainfall. As result, we obtained hyetographs of the height studied rain gauges. These hyetographs show several types of events that are well in conformity with the observed reality. This generation is an advantageous tool in terms of both its robustness and its performance. Its relevance is based on the analysis of the fine time structure of recorded rainfall events. It can be made over several years, and would permit us to avoid being constrained by sample size. Generating rainfall events provides extensive time-related rainfall data that are consistent at all time steps, and can be seen as solution, even partially, of data lack in hydrological study.     

不同类型降雨过程中GPS可降水量的特征分析

利用成都地基GPS观测网2007年8月21日～2008年11月30日观测数据,结合地面自动气象站网资料反演GPS大气可降水量(P_WV)。选取夏季暴雨,秋季绵雨和冬季雨雪天气过程分析GPSP_WV在不同类型降雨天气过程中的演变特征及日变化规律。结果表明,发生在不同季节的暴雨对应PWV的演变有所不同,盛夏暴雨发生在P_WV由峰值向波谷变化过程中,夏末的暴雨则出现在由波谷向波峰转变阶段,降雨前GPSP_WV的增减速率可很好地预示其后的暴雨强度。在秋季绵雨中P_WV的连续大幅递增或递减可作为降雨开始或结束的预报依据。GPSP_WV在降雨天气分析及预报中具有重要的指示意义。     

Inconsistency in rainfall characteristics estimated from records of different rain gauges

The goal of this work is to assess the effect of utilizing different types of tipping bucket rain gauges in investigating rainfall characteristics. A dual tipping bucket (TB) rain gauge station is installed in the upper catchment of Numan basin in Saudi Arabia. The main difference between the two gauges is that the Hydrological Services (HS) gauge is equipped with a siphon tube which reduces undercatchment particularly during heavy rainfall. Records of both gauges for the period 2006 to 2013 are collected, analyzed, and compared, focusing on the characteristics of rainfall events as well as rainfall temporal variability. The HS gauge recorded higher values of total rainfall depth compared to the Texas Electronics (TEMM) gauge. For the individual storms as well as the 5-min rainfall, HS gauge also reported higher mean rainfall depths. Regarding temporal characteristics of reported rainfall, no significant variations are observed between the values of storm duration of the two gauges. The TEMM gauge has the advantage of recoding more storms with depth less than 1 mm. The current study suggests the use of a corrective factor for rainfall record of the TEMM gauge.     

1991年6月～7月太湖及里下河地区连续暴雨过程中雨团活动分析

根据水文系统雨量站网的逐时量资料,分析1991年6月～7月江淮流域下游两次连续暴雨过程中太湖及里下河地区的雨团活动特征.结果表明,在太湖及里下河地区均有频繁的雨团活动,雨团以自西向东移动为主,且停滞较频繁,两地区的雨团活动特征存在一定差异.雨团降水在暴雨总量中占有较大比例,对洪涝的形成和发展有重要作用.雨团活动与中尺度切交线、辐合中心、辐合线等中尺度天气系统相配合.     

Spatiotemporal variations in rainfall–topographic relationships in southwestern Saudi Arabia

Spatial variations in the relationship between topography and mean annual and seasonal rainfalls in southwestern Saudi Arabia are examined using Kruskal–Wallis one-way analysis of variance. The topographic factors include physiographic features (topography), altitude, slope, proximity to a ridge or crest of mountains, and proximity to the Red Sea. There is a statistically significant effect of topographic factors on the mean annual rainfall, but the results are more significant for the mean seasonal rainfall. The largest amount of mean rainfall in the study area occurs during spring, when rainfall displays a significant relationship with topographic factors, in which more orographic rainfall patterns are associated with higher altitude, greater proximity to a ridge and steeper slopes. Higher altitudes do not necessarily receive more rain; some low altitude locations (i.e., the southern part of the study area) receive more rain during summer and fall because they are located on the windward side of the Asir Mountains and are exposed to the moist air masses brought by the southwest monsoonal system in summer and by the northwest air flow from the Mediterranean and Red Sea in the fall in addition to local convective rainfall patterns. Rainfall in winter increases in the foothills of the Asir Mountains above the coastal plain of the Red Sea. The steep western slopes (windward side) receive more rainfall than the gentle eastern slopes (leeward side): this may be due to the Asir Mountains forcing moist air masses carried by the westerly and northwest winds to rise and cool before they descend and warm on the leeward side.     

西宁市短历时暴雨雨型及适用性分析

利用西宁市1954-2017年降水分钟数据建立暴雨统计样本,采用年最大值法推算暴雨强度公式并推求西宁市短历时暴雨雨型。结果表明：西宁市短历时暴雨雨型单峰特征比较明显,单峰峰值出现在前1/3。历时120 min芝加哥设计雨型综合雨峰位置系数0.27,雨峰位置在35 min左右,峰值前（后）雨强迅速增加（减小）,最大1 h降水量为13.14 mm,降水主要集中在20～80 min。各历时的瞬时雨强变化趋势以及分布型基本一致,雨强随着重现期的增大而增大。累计降雨雨峰前（后）增长斜率升（降）最大。西宁市暴雨分布呈现局地性强,空间差异明显特征,芝加哥设计雨型结果对城西和城北区代表性较好,城中和城东区可参考使用。     

1961-2016年四川地区不同量级不同持续时间降水的 时空特征分析

利用四川地区122站逐日降水数据,采用均值、气候趋势系数等统计方法,对1961-2016年不同量级不同持续时间降水的空间和时间变化特征进行了分析,结果表明：盆地和攀西地区小雨、中雨、大雨和总暴雨所占年降水量比例接近,高原地区小雨降水量约占50%以上,中雨约40%,大雨约10%;整个四川地区小雨日数占总降水日数75%以上,量级越高降水日数越少。年降水量在盆地和攀西地区为减少趋势,高原则相反,年降水日数除了在高原局部微弱增加外其他地区皆减少且大部分区域减少趋势通过99%的显著性水平检验,这种趋势显著性主要体现在小雨量级降水。随着降水量级的增加,高原、盆地东北、攀西和盆地东南的部分地区出现了降水量和降水次数增加趋势,这可能说明高原地区年降水量的增加由小雨量级降水效率以及中雨和大雨降水次数增加导致,盆地和攀西部分地区年降水量的增加主要由降水量级大的降水次数增加导致。     

Spatial variability and rainfall characteristics of Kerala

Geographical regions of covariability in precipitation over the Kerala state are exposed using factor analysis. The results suggest that Kerala can be divided into three unique rainfall regions, each region having a similar covariance structure of annual rainfall. Stations north of 10‡N (north Kerala) fall into one group and they receive more rainfall than stations south of 10‡N (south Kerala). Group I stations receive more than 65% of the annual rainfall during the south-west monsoon period, whereas stations falling in Group II receive 25–30% of annual rainfall during the pre-monsoon and the north-east monsoon periods. The meteorology of Kerala is profoundly influenced by its orographical features, however it is difficult to make out a direct relationship between elevation and rainfall. Local features of the state as reflected in the rainfall distribution are also clearly brought out by the study.     

Rainfall induced debris flows in pyroclastic deposits, Campania (southern Italy)

A combination of empirical and physically based hydrological models has been used to analyze historical data on rainfall and debris-flow occurrence in western Campania, to examine the correlation between rainfall and debris-flow events.

Rainfall data from major storms recorded in recent decades in western Campania were compiled, including daily series from several rain gauges located inside landslide areas, supplemented by hourly rainfall data from some of the principal storms.

A two-phase approach is proposed. During phase 1, soil moisture levels have been modelled as the hydrological balance between precipitation and evapotranspiration, on a daily scale, using the method of Thornthwaite [Geograph. Rev. 38 (1948) 55].

Phase 2 is related to the accumulation of surplus moisture from intense rainfall, leading to the development of positive pore pressures. These interactions take place on an hourly time scale by the “leaky barrel” (LB) model described by Wilson and Wiezoreck [Env. Eng. Geoscience, 1 (1995) 11]. In combination with hourly rainfall records, the LB model has been used to compare hydrological effects of different storms. The critical level of retained rain water has been fixed by the timing of debris-flow activity, related to recorded storm events.

New rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for debris-flow initiation in western Campania are proposed. These thresholds are related to individual rain gauge and assume a previously satisfied field capacity condition. The new thresholds are somewhat higher than those plotted by previous authors, but are thought to be more accurate and thus need less conservatism.     

Distribution of stable isotopes in arid storms

 Temporal distributions of the isotopic composition in arid rain storms and in the associated runoff were investigated in a small arid rocky basin in Israel. Customized rain and runoff samplers provided sequential water samples hermetically sealed in high-density PVC bags. In several storms where the runoff was isotopically depleted, compared with the rainfall, the difference could not be explained by fractionation effects occurring during overland flow. A water-balance study relating the runoff discharge to rainfall over a rocky watershed showed that the entire discharge is produced by a very small segment (1–2 mm) of the rain storm. The major objective, therefore, was to provide quantitative relations between segments of rainfall (rain showers and rain spells) and runoff. The time distribution of the composition of stable isotopes (oxygen and hydrogen) was used to quantify the correlation between the rain spell's amount and the consequent runoff. The aim of this work was to (a) utilize the dynamic variations in the isotopic composition in rainfall and runoff and model the magnitude of surface-storage capacity associated with runoff processes of overland flow, and (b) characterize the isotopic composition of the percolating water with respect to the isotopic distribution in rainfall and runoff events. The conceptual model postulates an isotopic mixing of overland flow with water within the depression storage. A transport model was then formulated in order to estimate the physical watershed parameters that control the development of overland flow from a certain rainfall period. Part I (this paper) presents the results and the assessment of the relative depression storage obtained from oxygen-18 and deuterium analyses that lead to the physical and mathematical formulation of a double-component model of kinematic-wave flow and transport, which is presented in Part II (accompanying paper). Received, February 1997 · Revised, September 1997 · Accepted, September 1997     

基于WEB的浙江省降雨型滑坡预警预报系统

滑坡发生的最主要诱发因素是降雨.基于浙江省淳安、磐安、庆元和永嘉4个县的历史滑坡资料, 在研究降雨量、降雨强度和降雨过程与滑坡灾害的空间分布、时间上的对应关系, 建立起滑坡灾害时空分布与降雨过程的统计关系, 确定区域性滑坡的临界降雨量和降雨强度阀值的基础上, 开发出了降雨型滑坡预警预报系统, 其中采用临界降雨量模型和有效降雨量模型来进行预警预报.系统留给浙江省气象台一个传送数据的接口, 气象台将每天按时上传降雨数据, 数据保存在后台数据库MicrosoftSQLServer中.建成的系统能够自动获取数据库中的数据生成时间与降雨量实时曲线, 当降雨量达到降雨强度阀值时, 触发MAPGIS图件, 在Internet上发布区域预警预报信息, 并提供预警措施.      

地质灾害与不同尺度降雨时空分布关系

降雨是地质灾害最重要的诱发因素之一,开展地质灾害与不同尺度降雨的时空分布研究,分析降雨诱发地质灾害的特点规律,对于提升地质灾害区域预警水平和防灾减灾实践具有重要意义。本文以2006～2007年汛期地质灾害的实际发生情况为例,通过统计分析方法,对区域地质灾害与年降雨量、月降雨量、月暴雨日数、典型降雨过程之间的时空分布关系开展系统分析,研究表明:降雨是群发型地质灾害发生的重要诱发因素,地质灾害的发育密度与年均雨量成正比,地质灾害发育密度最大的区域,其年均雨量最大;地质灾害分布与月降雨量、月暴雨日数的分布总体上具备一定的对应关系,但并不是完全对应的,主要受到典型强降雨过程的落区控制;在地质灾害多发区出现典型强降雨过程时,地质灾害群发。     

世界实测与调查最大点雨量及其外包线公式

介绍了世界范围内大量实测与调查的点雨量极值,据此求得了世界最大点雨量外包线的新公式R=491D0.452,并对世界最大点雨量的地区分布特点、暴雨成因以及点暴雨极值在可能最大降水估算中的运用作了简要的说明.     

Trend and spatial distribution of rainfall & rainy days over Andaman & Nicobar Islands

The present study examines the characteristics and climatological features of daily rainfall data over Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Analysis of rainfall data reveals a large monthly deviation over the northern latitudes as compare to southern latitudes of Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Also, it is found that rainfall increases from north to south latitudes in all the seasons except monsoon, where a reverse pattern exists. In trend analysis, a statistically significant decreasing trend (confidence level >95?%) is observed for yearly rainfall and rainy days over the region. Analysis of daily rainfall intensity for each year shows increasing trend for frequency of rather heavy rain (35.6?C64.4?mm) and significant decreasing trend for frequencies of light rain (2.5?C7.5?mm), and very heavy rain (>124.5?mm) over the region. Many times, very heavy rain events are associated with cyclonic disturbances affecting Andaman & Nicobar Islands region. The analysis of cyclonic disturbances over the region reveals a stronger and more significant decreasing trend. So, one of the causes for decreasing trend in very heavy rain over Andaman & Nicobar Islands may be due to significant decreasing frequency of cyclonic disturbances affecting this region.     

A diagnosis of rainfall over South America during 1997/98 El Niño and 1998/99 La Niña events: Comparison between TRMM PR and GPCP rainfall estimates

A comparison between TRMM PR rainfall estimates and rain gauge data from ANEEL and combined gauge/satellite data from GPCP over South America (SA) is made. In general, the annual and seasonal regional characteristics of rainfall over SA are qualitatively well reproduced by TRMM PR and GPCP. It is found that over most of SA GPCP exceeds TRMM PR rainfall. The largest positive differences between GPCP and TRMM PR data occur in the north SA, northwestern and central Amazonia. However, there are regions where GPCP rainfall is lower than TRMM PR, particularly in the Pacific coastal regions and in southern Brazil. We suggest that the cause for the positive differences GPCP minus TRMM PR rainfall are related to the fact that satellite observations based on infrared radiation and outgoing longwave radiance sensors overestimate convective rainfall in GPCP and the cause for the negative differences are due to the random errors in TRMM PR. Rainfall differences in the latter phases of the 1997/98 El Niño and 1998/99 La Niña are analyzed. The results showed that the rainfall anomalies are generally higher in GPCP than in TRMM PR, however, as in the mean annual case, there are regions where the rainfall in GPCP is lower than in TRMM PR. The higher positive (negative) differences between the rainfall anomalies in GPCP and TRMM PR, which occur in the central Amazonia (southern Brazil), are reduced (increased) in the El Niño event. This is due to the fact that during the El Niño episode the rainfall decreases in the central Amazonia and increases in the southern Brazil. Consequently, the overestimation of the convective rainfall by GPCP is reduced and the overestimation of the rainfall by TRMM PR is increased in these two regions, respectively.     

Sensitivity analysis of runoff hydrographs due to temporal rainfall patterns in Makkah Al-Mukkramah region,Saudi Arabia

Runoff peak and volume in flood studies are estimated relying on temporal rainfall distribution from various storm patterns. Usually, SCS distributions types (I, II, III, IA) are commonly used. Using these distributions in runoff calculations assume that the in situ temporal rainfall pattern typically behaves as the one described by the SCS-type distribution, which is due to cyclonic frontal storms and actually developed in temperate environment. To what extent such assumption is valid in the arid environment? How much the impacts of rainfall temporal patterns are reflected in runoff volumes and peaks? The aim objectives of the current study are to answer the above two questions and clarify the validity of aforementioned assumption and exemplify such effect. Real rainfall data collected from rain gauges of Makkah Al-Mukkramah region over a period of more than 20 years are utilized. Temporal rainfall patterns and their parameters are deduced. Many hydrological simulations are performed and comparisons, in terms of runoff volume and peak flows, are made to show the effects of the common rainfall storm patterns and the developed rainfall storm patterns in the region based on the current study. Results indicate that major bursts of the design rainfall storm pattern are located in the first time of the storm period in the two quartiles which is mainly due to convective rainfall type in thunderstorms unlike the commonly used by SCS types relying on frontal cyclonic storms. Makkah Al-Mukkramah temporal rainfall pattern does not behave as the “typical pattern” assumed by SCS distributions that are deduced from different environments. The impacts of the temporal pattern reflected as an overestimate in the runoff peak reached to 68 %. The developed hyetographs and tables presented in the current study are recommended to enhance economical and rational design practice in watersheds of Makkah Al-Mukkramah region.     

Rainfall thresholds for flood triggering. The case of Marathonas in Greece

Basins across Mediterranean coast are often subject to rapid inundation phenomena caused by intense rainfall events. In this flash flooding regime, common practices for risk mitigation involve hydraulic modeling, geomorphic, and hydrologic analysis. However, apart from examining the intrinsic characteristics of a basin, realistic flood hazard assessment requires good understanding of the role of climatic forcing. In this work, peak rainfall intensities, total storm accumulation, average intensity, and antecedent moisture conditions of the 52 most important storms in record, during the period from 1993 to 2008, in northeast Attica, in Greece, are examined to investigate whether there is a correlation between specific rainfall conditions and flood triggering in the area. For this purpose, precipitation data from a network of five rain gauges installed across the study area were collected and analyzed. Storms totals, average intensity, antecedent moisture conditions, and peak intensities variations were calculated and compared with local flooding history. Results showed that among these rainfall measures, only peak storm intensity presents a significant correlation with flood triggering, and a rainfall threshold above which flooding becomes highly probable can be defined.     

Synoptic and remote sensing analysis of dust events in southwestern Iran

Southwest regions of Iran, due to dry environmental and climatic conditions, have been identified as one of the five major regions in the world. In recent years, large parts of Iran have been affected by suspended particles from the dust storms. The studied area is located in foothills of the Zagros Mountain Range just north of Persian Gulf in southwest of Iran. Dust and other meteorological data were prepared in 3-hour intervals from 12 synoptic weather stations. For tracking dust storms, satellite images of MODIS were used. Atmospheric conditions during the occurrence of dust storms were determined using NCEP reanalysis data. According to the statistical calculations, most storms occurred in the spring and summer. The lowest number of dust events occurred in the fall and winter particularly in December and January, when there are high possibilities of rainfall occurrence and dynamical instability conditions in the north and west of the region. The results illustrated that the highest amounts of hourly dust occurred in the afternoon and the lowest amounts occurred at 00UTC (3.30 am local times). It seems that it is closely related to the heating surface and the occurrence of local dry instabilities. Analyses of data showed that dust amounts (or volumes) in all the stations have two climactic peaks, first between 1982 and 1990 and second between 2005 and 2008 periods. These peaks can be related to a variety of factors including anthropogenic factors such as war, agricultural activities, dam construction, and widespread droughts.