近300a来古里雅冰芯记录的气候突变事件

根据古里雅冰芯高分辨率气候环境信息记录,利用小波气候突变的检测方法,对近300a来的气候突变事件进行了检测.结果表明,在百年尺度上,近300a来古里雅冰芯中所记录的δ¹⁸O(温度代用指标)发生了2次突变,分别在1788年和1932年;净积累量(降水量的代用指标)也发生了2次突变,分别在1805年和1939年;降水突变发生的时间迟于温度突变发生的时间.时间尺度越短,发生突变的次数则越多,这也体现了气候变化的层次性.因此,较好地确定隐含在气候资料中冷暖(干湿)期突变的位置,从冷暖(干湿)期的变更上去把握气候变化,将有助于认识气候变化的机理.     

Runoff evolution in Macta basin (Northwest of Algeria)

In Algeria, the climate change in recent decades has a negative impact on water resources. The goal of this study is to determine the influence of these hazards on surface water resources in the basin of Macta (Northwest of Algeria). The study of climatic pulsations is implemented from the climate coefficient changes and its moving averages over 3 years. Variations of this coefficient based on years, for the period 1949–1973, show an alternation of wet and dry years. Starting from 1973, a very dry period of more than 20 years was installed in the basin, with deficits ranging from 22% to 72%. The consequences of the surface water deficit can damage the environmental balance and consequently affect the various human activities that are directly or indirectly related to the use of these resources.     

Climate change and the resilient society: utopia or realistic option for German regions?

For the last five years, climate change has been increasingly perceived as a challenge for regional development. Compared to other nations, Germany is relatively ‘safe’, but the German regions are prone to different impacts of climate change; some of them might be positive but most will be negative in the long run. Strategic concepts are therefore needed to reduce the negative impacts and use the potential positive effects. Due to enforced research funding, several German regions are currently developing adaptation strategies within transdisciplinary research projects. Based on a comparative case study analysis of three of these projects, this paper looks for the benefits of resilience thinking in the context of climate change adaptation. The analysis shows that the case study regions try to increase their resilience to climate change by strengthening the properties of (1) resistance, (2) recovery and (3) creativity. But the discussion also reveals that only parts, certain sectors or subjects, of the region can increase their distinct resilience. Regional stakeholder networks as established within the case study regions can make a significant contribution to linking different sectors and levels of action. Therefore, this approach seems to be applicable for integrating the need for adaptation within the whole region. It is believed that the regionalized communication of potential climate change impacts raises awareness for climate change adaptation, helps to develop appropriate adaptation measures and encourages action. Hence, different approaches can indeed lead to more resilient structures. But the resilient society at regional level remains utopia.     

Rhone River flood deposits in Lake Le Bourget: a proxy for Holocene environmental changes in the NW Alps, France

The Holocene evolution of Rhone River clastic sediment supply in Lake Le Bourget is documented by sub-bottom seismic profiling and multidisciplinary analysis of well-dated sediment cores. Six high-amplitude reflectors within the lacustrine drape can be correlated to periods of enhanced inter- and underflow deposition in sediment cores. Based on the synthesis of major environmental changes in the NW Alps and on the age-depth model covering the past 7500 years in Lake Le Bourget, periods of enhanced Rhone River flood events in the lake can be related to abrupt climate changes and/or to increasing land use since c. 2700 cal. yr BP. For example, significant land use under rather stable climate conditions during the Roman Empire may be responsible for large flood deposits in the northern part of Lake Le Bourget between AD 966 and 1093. However, during the Little Ice Age (LIA), well-documented major environmental changes in the catchment area essentially resulted from climate change and formed basin-wide major flood deposits in Lake Le Bourget. Up to five 'LIA-like' Holocene cold periods developing enhanced Rhone River flooding activity in Lake Le Bourget are documented at c. 7200, 5200, 2800, 1600 and 200 cal. yr BP. These abrupt climate changes were associated in the NW Alps with Mont Blanc glacier advances, enhanced glaciofluvial regimes and high lake levels. Correlations with European lake level fluctuations and winter precipitation regimes inferred from glacier fluctuations in western Norway suggest that these five Holocene cooling events at 45°N were associated with enhanced westerlies, possibly resulting from a persistent negative mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation.     

A unified approach to orbital,solar, and lunar forcing based on the Earth’s latitudinal insolation/temperature gradient

Widespread empirical evidence suggests that extraterrestrial forcing influences the Earth’s climate, but how this could occur remains unclear. Here we describe a new approach to this problem that unifies orbital, solar and lunar forcing based on their common control of the Earth’s latitudinal insolation gradient (LIG). The LIG influences the climate system through differential solar heating between the tropics and the poles that gives rise to the latitudinal temperature gradient (LTG), which drives the Earth’s atmospheric and (wind driven) ocean circulation. We use spectral analysis of recent changes in the Earth’s LTG to support earlier work on orbital timescales (Davis and Brewer, 2009) that suggests the climate system may be unusually sensitive to changes in the LIG. Identification of LIG forcing of the LTG is possible because the LIG varies according to seasonally specific periodicities based on obliquity in summer (41 kyr orbital and 18.6 yr lunar cycle), and precession (21 kyr orbital cycle) and total solar irradiance (11 yr solar cycle) in winter. We analyse changes in the Northern Hemisphere LTG over the last 120 years and find significant (99%) peaks in spectral frequencies corresponding to 11 years in winter and 18.6 years in summer, consistent with LIG forcing. The cross-seasonal and multi-frequency nature of the LIG signal, and the diffuse effect of the LTG driver on the climate system may account for the complexity of the response to extraterrestrial forcing as seen throughout the climatic record. This hypersensitivity of the LTG to the LIG appears poorly reproduced in climate models, but would be consistent with the controversial theory that the LTG is finely balanced to maximise entropy.     

Climate change and the resilient society: utopia or realistic option for German regions?

For the last five years, climate change has been increasingly perceived as a challenge for regional development. Compared to other nations, Germany is relatively ‘safe’, but the German regions are prone to different impacts of climate change; some of them might be positive but most will be negative in the long run. Strategic concepts are therefore needed to reduce the negative impacts and use the potential positive effects. Due to enforced research funding, several German regions are currently developing adaptation strategies within transdisciplinary research projects. Based on a comparative case study analysis of three of these projects, this paper looks for the benefits of resilience thinking in the context of climate change adaptation. The analysis shows that the case study regions try to increase their resilience to climate change by strengthening the properties of (1) resistance, (2) recovery and (3) creativity. But the discussion also reveals that only parts, certain sectors or subjects, of the region can increase their distinct resilience. Regional stakeholder networks as established within the case study regions can make a significant contribution to linking different sectors and levels of action. Therefore, this approach seems to be applicable for integrating the need for adaptation within the whole region. It is believed that the regionalized communication of potential climate change impacts raises awareness for climate change adaptation, helps to develop appropriate adaptation measures and encourages action. Hence, different approaches can indeed lead to more resilient structures. But the resilient society at regional level remains utopia.     

中国近2000年来气候变化石笋记录研究进展

哥本哈根气候大会的召开,使得近2 000年来的气候变化研究倍受关注。本文对气候变化石笋记录,尤其是我国近2 000年来气候变化石笋记录取得的主要成果进行了总结。已有研究的进展主要在于:发现在中国季风区石笋记录中存在近2 000年来的一系列气候事件,并对其进行了高分辨率重建;对地区热月温度进行了年分辨率的重建,以及通过集成研究发现了"环流效应"等等。但以往的研究仍存在石笋古环境代用指标机理、年代学以及区域代表性石笋记录研究不够等问题。为此,文中提出了加强年际分辨率氧同位素古环境机理,特别是大气降水到石笋的一整套迁移变化过程的研究,以及与其他古环境代用指标的响应机理进行综合研究,加强近2 000年来石笋年代学研究和加强区域性代表性石笋记录研究等建议。     

洞穴文石石笋古气候环境变化研究进展、存在问题及研究方向

在全球变暖、极端事件频发的背景下,利用地质载体重建过去2 000年来气候变化规律、研究极端事件发生机制是未来气候变化,特别是极端天气/气候事件预测的重要手段。文章综述了高U含量、能够高精度测定年龄的洞穴文石石笋在古气候环境重建的应用:用于研究气候变化与人类文明的关系、反演区域气候差异性、准确重建区域气候变化及极端事件的发生;并针对洞穴文石石笋古气候环境重建中存在的问题提出以下研究方向:综合87Sr/86Sr、δ26Mg、δ18O和δ13C等同位素技术追寻洞穴文石的物源、利用Mg/Ca、Sr/Ca和δ13C、△47综合分析洞穴文石形成的环境及水文过程,加强洞穴文石的结晶学、物理化学研究,查明其形成及转化为方解石的条件。      

Re-evaluating the impacts of human activity and environmental change on desertification in the Minqin Oasis, China

The Minqin Oasis and its adjacent regions in northern China experienced significant desertification beginning 2,000 years ago and continuing to the present, and numerous studies have claimed that human activities, especially the flourishing of agriculture, have played a major role in environmental change in this region. Our analysis suggests that the observed desertification was mainly controlled by changes in the water component of the ecosystem and the arid climate. The impacts of cultivation on desertification from 2,000 years ago to the mid-1900s appear to have been relatively minor compared to the impacts of the area’s arid climate and its native geomorphological processes. Although human activity has increased from the late-1940s to the present, and the areas of the oasis reclaimed for agriculture have reached a maximum, desertification over the past 50 years appears to be a continuing process that began thousands of years ago, and is mainly controlled by decreasing water levels caused by the arid climate, local geomorphological processes and overuse of water in the upstream. Although both human activities and climate variation are important drivers of the desertification process, and it is not possible to completely separate the human influence from the climate impact, key factors on controlling desertification should be investigated before we place the blame solely on the flourishing of agriculture in this region.     

A new methodology for building local climate change scenarios: A case study of monthly temperature projections for Mexico City

This paper proposes a new methodology for generating climate change scenarios at the local scale based on multivariate time series models and restricted forecasting techniques. This methodology offers considerable advantages over the current statistical downscaling techniques such as: (i) it provides a better representation of climate at the local scale; (ii) it avoids the occurrence of spurious relationships between the large and local scale variables; (iii) it offers a more appropriate representation of variability in the downscaled scenarios; and (iv) it allows for compatibility assessment and combination of the information contained in both observed and simulated climate variables. Furthermore, this methodology is useful for integrating scenarios of local scale factors that affect local climate. As such, the convenience of different public policies regarding, for example, land use change or atmospheric pollution control can be evaluated in terms of their effects for amplifying or reducing climate change impacts.     

Potential predictability of wet/dry spells transitions during extreme monsoon years: optimism for dynamical extended range prediction

The duration and extreme fluctuations of prolonged wet or dry spells associated with intraseasonal variability during extreme monsoon have devastating impacts on agrarian-based economy over Indian subcontinent. This study examines the potential predictability limit of intraseasonal transitions between rainy to non-rainy phases (i.e., active to break phases) or vice versa over central Indian region during extreme monsoon using very high-resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) daily rainfall datasets. The present study reveals that the transitions from both active to break and break to active conditions are more predictable by ~8 days during the weak monsoon (WM) years compared to the strong monsoon (SM) years. Such asymmetric behavior in the limit of predictability could be linked to the distinct differences in the large-scale seasonal mean background instability during SM and WM years. The achievability of such predictability is further evaluated in a state-of-the-art climate model, the climate forecast system (CFSv2). It is demonstrated that the observed asymmetry in predictability limit could be reproducible in the CFSv2 model, irrespective of its spatial resolution. This study provides impetus for useful dynamical prediction of wet/dry spells at extended range during the extreme monsoon years.     

Mid‐ and late‐Holocene climatic changes: a test of periodicity and solar forcing in proxy‐climate data from blanket peat bogs

A wide range of palaeoenvironmental evidence from the Holocene has suggested periodicities in the Earth's climate of 10s to 1000s of years. Identifying these millennial‐, century‐ and decadal periodicities, and their impacts, is critical in developing a fuller understanding of natural climate variability. Any solar‐induced climatic change needs to be distinguished from other causes of natural climate variability and from short‐term catastrophic events induced either by external or internal processes. Such events might themselves generate a periodicity, or in combination with other forcing factors they may contribute towards a periodicity (and so spuriously imply a universal and continuing periodicity in the climate record), or they may resonate with a solar‐induced periodicity. Here, evidence from peat records for periodicity in climate change over the mid to late Holocene is reviewed and this is followed by a test of the replicability of claimed periodicities using blanket peat data covering the past 2000 yr from four sites in the British Isles. Results suggest that the mires studied do go through phases of being responsive to periodic forcing factors, with ca. 200, ca. 80 and 60–50 yr wavelengths reflected in some data sets. However, the patterns shown are not consistent. This could be the result of local conditions at individual mires (human impact, sensitivity and vegetation succession) or of changes in the strength or nature of global forcing factors. Assessing a solar–mire link remains difficult because the century‐scale variations of the Sun show different intervals between solar minima, the durations of which are themselves unequal, and because the proxy‐climate data‐sets from peat profiles may themselves not be dated with sufficient precision and/or accuracy. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A multiproxy climate record from a raised bog in County Fermanagh,Northern Ireland: a critical examination of the link between bog surface wetness and solar variability

A proxy climate record from a raised bog in County Fermanagh, Northern Ireland, is presented. The record spans the interval between 2850 cal. yr BC and cal. yr AD 1000 and chronological control is achieved through the use of tephrochronology and ¹⁴C dating, including a wiggle‐match on one section of the record. Palaeoclimatic inferences are based on a combination of a testate amoebae‐derived water table reconstruction, peat humification and plant macrofossil analyses. This multiproxy approach enables proxy‐specific effects to be identified. Major wet shifts are registered in the proxies at ca. 1510 cal. yr BC, 750 cal. yr BC and cal. yr AD 470. Smaller magnitude shifts to wetter conditions are also recorded at ca. 380 cal. yr BC, 150 cal. yr BC, cal. yr AD 180, and cal. yr AD 690. It is hypothesised that the wet shifts are not merely local events as they appear to be linked to wider climate deteriorations in northwest Europe. Harmonic analysis of the proxies illustrates statistically significant periodicities of 580, 423–373, 307 and 265 years that may be related to wider Holocene climate cycles. This paper illustrates how the timing of climate changes registered in peat profiles records can be precisely constrained using tephrochronology to examine possible climatic responses to solar forcing. Relying on interpolated chronologies with considerable dating uncertainty must be avoided if the climatic responses to forcing mechanisms are to be fully understood. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A radiometric calibration of the SPECMAP timescale

The astronomical theory of climate change asserts that Earth's climate is affected by changes in its orbit, which vary the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of solar radiation. This theory is the basis of the orbitally tuned SPECMAP timescale. A key constraint for this important chronology was the mid-point of the Penultimate Deglaciation, initially dated to 127,000 years ago. Recent work suggests this event may be considerably older, casting doubt on the astronomical theory, the SPECMAP timescale, and the accuracy of orbitally tuned chronologies. Difficulties with U/Th coral dating of sea-level events have impeded progress on this problem, because most corals are not closed systems. Here, we use a new approach to U/Th dating that corrects for open-system behavior and produces a sea-level curve of sufficient resolution to confidently correlate with SPECMAP over the last 240,000 years, permitting a reassessment of both this critical chronology and a central tenet of climate change theory. High-precision ages for 24 oxygen isotope events provide a 240,000-year chronology for marine δ¹⁸O records that is independent of orbital tuning assumptions. Although there appear to be significant differences between the radiometric and orbitally tuned timescales near the lastglacial maximum and at the Marine Isotope Stage 7/6 boundary, a comparison of radiometric and SPECMAP ages for identical isotope events suggest that the SPECMAP timescale is quite accurate and that its errors were, in general, overestimated. Despite suborbital complexity, orbital cyclicity is clearly evident in our record. High-amplitude sea-level oscillations at periods greater than 20,000 years are very close in phase to summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. Although sea-level changes cannot be uniquely tied to a specific season or latitude of insolation forcing, the simplest explanation is that long-period, high-amplitude sea-level change is linked to Northern Hemisphere insolation forcing. These results validate the principles of orbital tuning and suggest such timescales are generally robust.     

Climatic Character of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e in the Representative Regions of the World: A Review

The Last Interglacial or Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e, is of great interest because it serves as an analog for the Holocene. The climate change and duration during Marine isotope stage (MIS) 5e are considerably well understood for recent and future climate. Despite great interest in this subject over many years, a number of issues concerning the climate circumstances of MIS 5e are by no means resolved. We analyzed 35 published palaeoclimate records with reliable chronologies and robust proxies in typical region of the world to evaluate climate change during MIS 5e. These data indicate that: ① The duration of this warm phase is thought to range from (128±2) ka to (116±2) ka. The climate of MIS 5e was likely relatively stable with a number of abrupt, weak amplitude, cool and/or arid events. And the difference between regions is noticeable for the occurrence, amplitude, onset and duration of these events. For example, marine records from the North Atlantic indicate that the climate of MIS 5e was relatively stable, however the records from Norwegian sea show that the climate of MIS 5e had a significant changes at the beginning and cold event in the Mid-Eemian; The δ¹⁸O, δD and CH₄ in the ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica imply that climate was relatively stable during the last interglacial period, while in Europe from the north to the south the duration of this phase became shorter and the intensity of climatic events became stronger. In addition, the climatic conditions of MIS 5e reconstructed by climate proxy from China are various and have the subject of some controversy. ②The global climate response to the insolation forcing would have been uniform on suborbital timescale. Nevertheless, as a result of regional sundry climatic forcing factors, global millennial-scale/century-scale climate oscillations were marked by significant local features during stage 5e. ③ Based on the better chronological controls, the estimation of climate parameters, the high-resolution climate records, and precise knowledge of the phase relationship between climate changes in global, the earlier depiction for climate circumstances and environment change during Marine Isotope Stage 5e should be refined and our understanding of the climate dynamics and mechanism and climate modelling should be improved.     

Investigation into albedo-controlled energy loss during the last glaciation

In recent years, attention has increasingly been paid to the question of the stability of the earth's climate. It has been observed that changes in climate are usually related to changes in the earth's surface. On this question, Liedtke writes ‘A change in climate can lead to considerable landscape changes’ (Liedtke 1990, p. 38). There seems to be some form of interaction between climate and the condition of the earth's surface. If solar radiation is taken to be the primary energy source for the earth's climate, the question arises as to how insolation affects the character of the earth's surface, and vice versa, how does the character of the earth's surface affect the insolation which occurs? Reconstructions of the last great Pleistocene glaciation 18,000 years ago show that the form of the earth's surface at that time was considerably different to its present form. In view of the interaction mentioned above between climate and earth surface, does this suggest a difference between the earth's radiation budget 18,000 years ago and that of today? If, as is widely believed, the area of the earth's surface covered by ice 18,000 years ago was approximately three times the current area (Liedtke 1990, p. 42), this presumably would have had at least some influence on the earth's radiation budget. The ice-covered areas may have modified the radiation budget by means of their high reflexivity. In other words, an albedo-related loss of radiation may have occurred. The results of this investigations show, that the global radiation budget at 18,000 B.P was about 7- -10% less than that of today.     

云南华坪全新世大暖期百年尺度的季风气候的石笋记录

通过对云南华坪葫芦洞FL4石笋进行高精度的ICP—MS—230Th/U测年和高分辨率的碳、氧同位素分析,建立了该地区6 060-4 185 a BP间高分辨率的西南季风气候变化时间序列,进而揭示了该时段发生的3次季风减弱事件。 这3次百年尺度（持续时间为90～240a）的干旱寒冷事件,分别发生在6 060－5 950 a BP、5 380－5 140 a BP、4 810-4 620 a BP,呈台阶状演变;而石笋的碳同位素记录揭示了2次强降水事件,分别发生在5 503－5 443 a BP和4 210-4 185 a BP,持续时间分别为25a和60a。石笋碳、氧同位素记录的西南季风减弱以及强降水事件明显受太阳辐射强度的控制。分辨率为3~10 a的碳、氧同位素记录表明,在百年尺度的西南季风气候变化上,叠加了一系列十年尺度的气候突变事件,呈锯齿状的高频波动。这些短时间尺度的季风气候波动事件与树轮14C 残差、冰芯记录极为相似,反映低纬度地区石笋记录的季风气候与高纬度及北极地区的气候具有极好的可比性,可能主要是受中低纬度太阳辐射强度以及北半球大气环流的影响,太阳辐射强度的变化是控制印度季风的快速推进或退出(萎缩)以及百年尺度上的气候波动的主要动因。      

内蒙古伊盟盐海子YaO2孔氧碳同位素记录的第四纪末次冰期及全新世气候特征

从内蒙古伊盟盐海YaO2孔氧碳同位素资料中可以看到:东亚季风气候在22 000aBP时由第四纪末次冰期气候开始转入末次间冰期气候。东亚季风带第四纪末次冰期时的气候环境是湿冷的淡化期。而末次间冰期的气候环境是热干的成盐期。其次,末次冰期以来,气候由湿冷转变为热干,5400aBP时气候达到热干的大暖期的最热点。之后又逐级降至现代暖趋冷的气候特征。东亚季风气候带的末次间冰期开始界线在22 000aBP左右。δ18O资料告诉我们内蒙古高原第四纪末次冰期曾有过冰川或冰盖地貌景现,在22000aBP以后才消融进入第四纪末次间冰期。     

Evaluating the risk of climate change to nuclear waste disposal

A hierarchy of models is being developed to represent the changes in climate that could occur in the next 10,000 years at proposed nuclear waste repository sites in the U.S. Three levels of modeling of the global aspects of climate change are included. At the broadest level a multitude of theoretical representations are being considered, most based upon the Milankovitch theory. A set of at least 150 situations will be examined, and those of concern for site stability will be screened for more thorough analysis at the next level of detail. The screening criteria include estimation of the probability of the event; the level of probability which must be considered (0.0001) requires use of the most detailed paleoclimatic records available. Uncertainty in the results will be evaluated by comparison of model reconstructions to the paleoclimatic record and by Monte Carlo analyses.This paper was presented at Emerging Concept, MGUS-87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.     

中国过去300年土地利用变化及其气候效应

以两种植被数据为基础,分别利用区域和全球气候模式对过去300年土地利用和地表覆盖变化的气候效应进行了模拟研究。结果表明,耕地面积不断扩大所造成的自然植被破坏可能对区域性气候产生显著影响。通过对不同时期植被特征下地面温度、降水和低层大气环流的比较分析发现,中国东部地区耕地取代自然植被后,全年平均温度有所降低,且存在明显季节差异。植被退化地区的夏季温度有明显升高而冬季温度则显著降低; 同时夏季降水和850hPa风场发生显著变化： 夏季降水明显减少,而这一结果与低层(850hPa)大气环流的反气旋性增强相联系,即植被退化使中国东部夏季风环流减弱,这与目前观测事实是一致的。土地利用引起的地表覆盖的变化可能是东亚季风减弱的原因之一。