Decoherence time scales for “meteoroid streams”

Abstract— We explore the orbital dynamics of Earth‐crossing objects with the intent to understand the time scales under which an “orbital stream” of material could produce time‐correlated meteorite falls. These “meteoroid streams” have been suggested to be associated with three well‐known meteorite‐dropping fireballs (Innisfree, Peekskill, and P?íbram). We have performed two different analyses of the statistical significance of the “orbital similarity,” in particular calculating how often orbits of the same level of similarity would come from a random sample. Secondly, we have performed extremely detailed numerical integrations related to these three cases, and we find that if they were streams of objects in similar orbits, then they would become “decoherent” (in the sense that the day‐of‐fall of meteorites of these streams become almost random) on time scales of 10⁴–10⁵ yr. Thus, an extremely recent breakup would be required, much more recent that the cosmic ray exposure ages of the recovered falls in each case. We conclude that orbital destruction is too efficient to allow the existence of long‐lived meteoroid streams and that the statistical evidence for such streams is insufficient; random fall patterns show comparable levels of clustering.     

Eccentric Extrasolar Planets: The Jumping Jupiter Model

Most extrasolar planets discovered to date are more massive than Jupiter, in surprisingly small orbits (semimajor axes less than 3 AU). Many of these have significant orbital eccentricities. Such orbits may be the product of dynamical interactions in multiplanet systems. We examine outcomes of such evolution in systems of three Jupiter-mass planets around a solar-mass star by integration of their orbits in three dimensions. Such systems are unstable for a broad range of initial conditions, with mutual perturbations leading to crossing orbits and close encounters. The time scale for instability to develop depends on the initial orbital spacing; some configurations become chaotic after delays exceeding 10⁸ y. The most common outcome of gravitational scattering by close encounters is hyperbolic ejection of one planet. Of the two survivors, one is moved closer to the star and the other is left in a distant orbit; for systems with equal-mass planets, there is no correlation between initial and final orbital positions. Both survivors may have significant eccentricities, and the mutual inclination of their orbits can be large. The inner survivor's semimajor axis is usually about half that of the innermost starting orbit. Gravitational scattering alone cannot produce the observed excess of “hot Jupiters” in close circular orbits. However, those scattered planets with large eccentricities and small periastron distances may become circularized if tidal dissipation is effective. Most stars with a massive planet in an eccentric orbit should have at least one additional planet of comparable mass in a more distant orbit.     

Orbit computation for transneptunian objects

Using statistical orbital ranging, we systematically study the orbit computation problem for transneptunian objects (TNOs). We have automated orbit computation for large numbers of objects, and, more importantly, we are able to obtain orbits even for the most sparsely observed objects (observational arcs of a few days). For such objects, the resulting orbit distributions include a large number of high-eccentricity orbits, in which TNOs can be perturbed by close encounters with Neptune. The stability of bodies on the computed orbits has therefore been ascertained by performing a study of close encounters with the major planets. We classify TNO orbit distributions statistically, and we study the evolution of their ephemeris uncertainties. We find that the orbital element distributions for the most numerous single-apparition TNOs do not support the existence of a postulated sharp edge to the belt beyond 50 AU. The technique of statistical ranging provides ephemeris predictions more generally than previously possible also for poorly observed TNOs.     

Young Meteor Swarms Near the Sun: I. Statistical Correlation of Meteors with Families of Short-Perihelion Comets

We examine the hypothesis about the formation of meteor streams near the Sun. Families of short-perihelion orbit comets, many of which pass just a few radii from the solar surface at perihelion and have high dust production efficiencies, are assumed to be candidates for the parent bodies of these meteor streams. Our statistical analysis of orbital and kinematic parameters for short-perihelion meteoric particles recorded at the Earth and comets from the Kreutz family and the Marsden, Kracht, and Meyer groups led us to certain conclusions regarding the proposed hypothesis. We found a correlation between the ecliptic longitude of perihelion for comet and meteor orbits and the perihelion distance. This correlation may be suggestive of either a genetic connection between the objects of these two classes or the result of an as yet unknown mechanism that equally acts on short-perihelion comet and meteor orbits. A reliable conclusion about this genetic connection can be reached for the meteors that belong to the Arietids stream and the Marsden comet group.     

Asteroid 2002NY40 as a source of meteorite-dropping bolides

The existence of asteroidal meteoroid streams capable of producing meteorite-dropping bolides has long being invoked, but evidence is scarce. Recent modelling of previously reported associations suggests that the time-scales to keep the orbital coherence of these streams producing meteorites are too short. We present an unequivocal association between near earth object (NEO) 2002NY40 and at least one bright fireball detected over Finland in 2006 August. Another two additional fireballs recorded from Spain and Finland seem to be related, together producing a fireball-producing stream (β Aquarids). On the basis of historical data, the 2006 finding suggests the existence of a meteoroid complex capable of producing meteorites. Taking into account present time-scales for orbital decoherence, if 2002NY40 has large meteoroids associated with it, such behaviour would be the consequence of a relatively recent asteroidal fragmentation. Supporting our claim, the heliocentric orbits of two recently discovered NEOs, 2004NL8 and 2002NY40, were found to exhibit a good similarity to each other and also to the orbits of the three bolides. The fireball spectra of the two Finish bolides showed that the chemical abundances of these objects are consistent with the main elements found in chondrites. This result is consistent with the probable Low iron, Low metal (LL) chondritic mineralogy of asteroid 2002NY40. Consequently, this asteroid may be delivering LL chondrites to the Earth. Additional fireball reports found in the literature suggest that the associated β Aquarid complex may have been delivering meteorites to the Earth during, at least, the last millennium.     

Migration of Trans-Neptunian Objects to the Terrestrial Planets

The orbital evolution of more than 22000 Jupiter-crossing objects under thegravitational influence of planets was investigated. We found that the meancollision probabilities of Jupiter-crossing objects (from initial orbits close tothe orbit of a comet) with the terrestrial planets can differ by more than twoorders of magnitude for different comets. For initial orbital elements close tothose of some comets (e.g., 2P and 10P), about 0.1% of objects got Earth-crossingorbits with semi-major axes a < 2 AU and moved in such orbits for more than a Myr (up to tens or even hundreds of Myrs).Results of our runs testify in favor of at least one of these conclusions: (1) the portionof 1-km former trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) among near-Earth objects (NEOs)can exceed several tens of percent, (2) the number of TNOs migrating inside the solarsystem could be smaller by a factor of several than it was earlier considered, (3) mostof 1-km former TNOs that had got NEO orbits disintegrated into mini-comets and dustduring a smaller part of their dynamical lifetimes if these lifetimes are not small.     

The orbit and atmospheric trajectory of the Orgueil meteorite from historical records

Abstract— Using visual observations that were reported 140 years ago in the Comptes Rendus de l'Académie des Sciences de Paris, we have determined the atmospheric trajectory and the orbit of the Orgueil meteorite, which fell May 14, 1864, near Montauban, France. Despite the intrinsic uncertainty of visual observations, we were able to calculate a reasonably precise atmospheric trajectory and a moderately precise orbit for the Orgueil meteoroid. The atmosphere entry point was ?70 km high and the meteoroid terminal point was ?20 km high. The calculated luminous path was ?150 km with an entry angle of 20°. These characteristics are broadly similar to that of other meteorites for which the trajectory is known. Five out of six orbital parameters for the Orgueil orbit are well constrained. In particular, the perihelion lies inside the Earth's orbit (q ?0.87 AU), as is expected for an Earth‐crossing meteorite, and the orbital plane is close to the ecliptic (i ?0°). The aphelion distance (Q) depends critically on the pre‐atmospheric velocity. From the calculated atmospheric path and the fireball duration, which was reported by seven witnesses, we have estimated the pre‐atmospheric velocity to be larger than 17.8 km/sec, which corresponds to an aphelion distance Q larger than 5.2 AU, the semi‐major axis of Jupiter orbit. These results suggest that Orgueil has an orbit similar to that of Jupiter‐family comets (JFCs), although an Halley‐type comet cannot be excluded. This is at odds with other meteorites that have an asteroidal origin, but it is compatible with 140 years of data‐gathering that has established the very special nature of Orgueil compared to other meteorites. A cometary origin of the Orgueil meteorite does not contradict cosmochemistry data on CI1 chondrites. If CI1 chondrites originate from comets, it implies that comets are much more processed than previously thought and should contain secondary minerals. The forthcoming return of cometary samples by the Stardust mission will provide a unique opportunity to corroborate (or contradict) our hypothesis.     

ASTEROIDAL SOURCE OF ORDINARY CHONDRITES*

The orbital evolution of asteroidal fragments with diameters ranging from 10 cm to 20 km, injected into the 3:1 Kirkwood gap at 2.50 A.U., has been investigated using Monte Carlo techniques. It is assumed that this material can become Earth-crossing on a time scale of 10⁶ years, as a result of a chaotic zone discovered by Wisdom, associated with the 3:1 resonance. This phenomenon, as well as close encounter planetary perturbations, the v₆ secular resonance, and the ablative effects of the Earth's atmosphere are included in the determination of the orbital characteristics of meteorites impacting the Earth derived by fragmentation of this asteroidal material. It is found that the predicted meteorite orbits closely match those found for observed ordinary chondrites, and the total flux is in approximate agreement with the observed fall rate of ordinary chondrites. About 10% of the predicted impacting bodies are meteorite-size bodies originating directly from the asteroid belt. The remainder are obtained by subsequent fragmentation of larger (～1 m to 20 km diameter) Earth-crossing asteroidal fragments. The largest of these fragments are observable as Apollo-Amor objects. Thus the apparent paradox between the orbital characteristics of observed ordinary chondrites and those predicted from Apollo object sources is reconciled. Both appear to be complementary aspects of the same phenomena. No other asteroidal resonance is found to be satisfactory as a source of ordinary chondrites. These meteorites are therefore most likely to be derived from S asteroids in this limited region of the asteroidal belt, the largest of which are 11 Parthenope, 17 Thetis, and 29 Amphitrite.     

Comparing analytical and numerical approaches to meteoroid orbit determination using Hayabusa telemetry

Fireball networks establish the trajectories of meteoritic material passing through Earth's atmosphere, from which they can derive pre‐entry orbits. Triangulated atmospheric trajectory data require different orbit determination methods to those applied to observational data beyond the Earth's sphere of influence, such as telescopic observations of asteroids. Currently, the vast majority of fireball networks determine and publish orbital data using an analytical approach, with little flexibility to include orbital perturbations. Here, we present a novel numerical technique for determining meteoroid orbits from fireball network data and compare it to previously established methods. The re‐entry of the Hayabusa spacecraft, with its known pre‐Earth orbit, provides a unique opportunity to perform this comparison as it was observed by fireball network cameras. As initial sightings of the Hayabusa spacecraft and capsule were made at different altitudes, we are able to quantify the atmosphere's influence on the determined pre‐Earth orbit. Considering these trajectories independently, we found the orbits determined by the novel numerical approach to align closer to JAXA's telemetry in both cases. Using simulations, we determine the atmospheric perturbation to become significant at ~90 km—higher than the first observations of typical meteorite dropping events. Using further simulations, we find the most substantial differences between techniques to occur at both low entry velocities and Moon passing trajectories. These regions of comparative divergence demonstrate the need for perturbation inclusion within the chosen orbit determination algorithm.     

High Inclination Meteorite Streams can Exist

Meteorites represent bodies at the larger end of the meteoroid size spectrum since they are large enough to survive ablation in the Earth’s atmosphere. They are thus far less numerous than normal meteoroids that become meteors. A number of meteorites can arrive at around the same time and location and so in some sense represent a stream, but these are just recent fragmentations. Most meteors, according to their cosmic ray exposure age are at least 10 million years old. This is roughly also the timescale for the onset of chaos in the inner Solar System and so conventional wisdom is that meteorites can not survive on such orbits for such a time span and that they certainly cannot survive as coherent streams. We investigate numerically the survival of streams for this time interval.     

A former asteroidal planet as the origin of comets

The idea of a missing planet between Mars and Jupiter has been with us since the formulation of the Titius-Bode law. The discovery of the asteroid belt in that location led to speculation about a planetary breakup event. Both ideas remained conjectures until Ovenden's finding in 1972, from which it could be derived that the mass of the missing planet was about 90 Earth masses and that its breakup was astronomically recent. Apparently much of that mass was blown out of the solar system during the disruption of the planet. Because of the action of planetary perturbations, only two types of orbits of surviving fragments could remain at present-asteroid orbits and once-around very-long-period elliptical orbits. Objects in the latter type of orbit are known to exist-the very-long-period comets. A large number of these are on elliptical trajectories with periods of revolution of 5 million years; yet they are known to have made no more than one revolution in an orbit passing close to the Sun. By direct calculation it is possible to predict the distribution of the orbital elements of objects moving on long-period ellipses which might have originated in a breakup event in the asteroid belt 5 million years ago. The comet orbits have the predicted distribution in every case where a measure is possible. Some of the distribution anomalies, such as a bias in the directions of perihelion passage, are statistically strong and would be difficult to explain in any other uncontrived way. In addition, a relative deficiency of orbits with perihelia less than 1 AU indicates that the comets must have had small perihelion distances since their origin, rather than that they have been perturbed into small perihelion orbits from a distant “cloud” of comets by means of stellar encounters. The comet orbital data lead to the conclusion that all comets originated in a breakup event in the asteroid belt (5.5±0.6) × 10⁶ years ago. Asteroid and meteoritic evidence can now be interpreted in a way which not only is supportive but also provides fresh insights into understanding their physical, chemical, and dynamical properties. Particularily noteworthy are the young cosmic-ray exposure ages of meteorites, evidence of a previous high-temperature/pressure environment and of chemical differentiation of the parent body, and compositional similarities among comets, asteroids, and meteorites. Certain “explosion signatures” in asteroid orbital element distributions are likewise indicative. Tektites may also have originated in the same event; but if so, there are important implications regarding the absolute accuracy of certain geological dating methods. Little is known about possible planetary breakup mechanisms of the requisite type, though some speculations are offered. In any case, the asteroid belt is an existing fact; and the arguments presented here that a large planet did disintegrate 5 million years ago must be judged on their merits, even in the absence of a suitable theory of planetary explosions.     

A new search method for streams in meteor data bases and its application

A new search method for locating meteoroid streams within an orbit data base and obtaining their central core orbits is introduced. The method is based on the transformation of a data base of discrete orbits into a continuous density map. Artificial data bases are used to determine if a density is statistically unlikely to occur by random chance. A search is then run to identify all density peaks within the map that correspond to the central core of a meteoroid stream. Drummond D' criterion is used as a metric within the transformation and a D' acceptability limit, D _l, defines the length scale over which a discrete meteor orbit can have an influence on the density map. Examination of the search dependence on D _l for both real and artificial data sets indicates an appropriate standard value. A full search is run on 5280 meteor orbits from the IAU data base, detecting 16 known major and minor meteoroid streams. New central core orbits are presented for these. No major differences from the published orbits are detected, apart from possible multi-branched structure in the southern δ Aquarids.     

A meteoroid stream survey using the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar: I. Methodology and radiant catalogue

Using a meteor orbit radar, a total of more than 2.5 million meteoroids with masses ∼10⁻⁷ kg have had orbits measured in the interval 2002-2006. From these data, a total of 45 meteoroid streams have been identified using a wavelet transform approach to isolate enhancements in radiant density in geocentric coordinates. Of the recorded streams, 12 are previously unreported or unrecognized. The survey finds >90% of all meteoroids at this size range are part of the sporadic meteoroid background. A large fraction of the radar detected streams have q<0.15 AU suggestive of a strong contribution from sungrazing comets to the meteoroid stream population currently intersecting the Earth. We find a remarkably long period of activity for the Taurid shower (almost half the year as a clearly definable radiant) and several streams notable for a high proportion of small meteoroids only, among these a strong new shower in January at the time of the Quadrantids (January Leonids). A new shower (Epsilon Perseids) has also been identified with orbital elements almost identical to Comet 96P/Machholz.     

Orbital evolution of giant comet-like objects

We investigated by numerical integrations the long-term orbital evolution of four giant comets or comet-like objects. They are Chiron, P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 1 (SW1), Hidalgo, and 1992AD (5145), and their orbits were traced for 100–200 thousand years (kyr) toward both the past and the future. For each object, 13 orbits were calculated, one for the nominal orbital elements and other 12 with slightly modified elements based on the rms residual of the orbit determination and on the number of observations. As past studies indicate, their orbital evolution is found to be very chaotic, and thus can be described only in terms of probability. Plots of the semi-major axis (a) and perihelion distance (q) of the objects treated here seem to cross each other frequently, suggesting a possibility of their common evolutionary paths. About a half of all the calculated orbits showedq- ora-decreasing evolution. This indicates that, at least on the time scale in question, the giant comet-like objects are possibly on a dynamical track that can lead to capture from the outer solar system. We could hardly find the orbits with perihelia far outside the orbit of Saturn (q>15 AU). This is perhaps because the evolution of the orbits beyond Saturn is so slow that substantial orbital changes do not take place within 100–200 kyr.     

Asteroid orbital ranging using Markov‐Chain Monte Carlo

Abstract— We present a novel Markov‐Chain Monte‐Carlo orbital ranging method (MCMC) for poorly observed single‐apparition asteroids with two or more observations. We examine the Bayesian a posteriori probability density of the orbital elements using methods that map a volume of orbits in the orbital‐element phase space. In particular, we use the MCMC method to sample the phase space in an unbiased way. We study the speed of convergence and also the efficiency of the new method for the initial orbit computation problem. We present the results of the MCMC ranging method applied to three objects from different dynamical groups. We conclude that the method is applicable to initial orbit computation for near‐Earth, main‐belt, and transneptunian objects.     

Analysis of the upper limit of the Southworth-Hawkins <Emphasis Type="Italic">D</Emphasis> criterion for the Pons-Winneckid and Perseid meteoroid streams

The value of the upper limit of the Southworth-Hawkins D criterion for the Pons-Winneckids (June Bootid) and Perseids meteor streams is analyzed on the basis of the comparison of the parent comet orbit with the model orbits of meteoroids ejected at different points of the comet orbit with the most likely ejection velocities. The change of the D values is investigated depending on the dynamic evolution of the streams by integrating forward the orbital elements of the model particles using the Cowell method taking into account the perturbations from all planets. It is shown that after ten rotations, for Pons-Winneckids the upper limit of the D criterion is higher than 0.5 and for Perseids the D criterion does not exceed 0.2.     

Low-eccentricity motion of asteroids near the 2/1 Jovian resonance

(903) Nealley moves on an orbit of low eccentricity with a mean motion that is slightly larger than the 2/1 value of resonance. This orbit and some related fictious orbits are studied by numerical integrations of the four-body problem Sun-Jupiter-Saturn-asteroid over an interval of 110000 yr. The author's experience on related cases of resonance allows a study of the variation of suitably defined orbital parameters. The long-term evolution of the orbits is compared with earlier predictions. Some of the librating orbits are temporarily captured in a secondary resonance that refers to three-dimensional motion and is demonstrated by a special example.     

OpenOrb: Open‐source asteroid orbit computation software including statistical ranging

Abstract— We are making an open‐source asteroid orbit computation software package called OpenOrb publicly available. OpenOrb is built on a well‐established Bayesian inversion theory, which means that it is to a large part complementary to orbit‐computation packages currently available. In particular, OpenOrb is the first package that contains tools for rigorously estimating the uncertainties resulting from the inverse problem of computing orbital elements using scarce astrometry. In addition to the well‐known least‐squares method, OpenOrb also contains both Monte‐Carlo (MC) and Markov‐Chain MC (MCMC; Oszkiewicz et al. [2009]) versions of the statistical ranging method. Ranging allows the user to obtain sampled, non‐Gaussian orbital‐element probability‐density functions and is therefore optimized for cases where the amount of astrometry is scarce or spans a relatively short time interval. Ranging‐based methods have successfully been applied to a variety of different problems such as rigorous ephemeris prediction, orbital element distribution studies for transneptunian objects, the computation of invariant collision probabilities between near‐Earth objects and the Earth, detection of linkages between astrometric asteroid observations within an apparition as well as between apparitions, and in the rigorous analysis of the impact of orbital arc length and/or astrometric uncertainty on the uncertainty of the resulting orbits. Tools for making ephemeris predictions and for classifying objects based on their orbits are also available in OpenOrb. As an example, we use OpenOrb in the search for candidate retrograde and/or high‐inclination objects similar to 2008 KV₄₂ in the known population of transneptunian objects that have an observational time span shorter than 30 days.     

Toroidal path filter for orbital conjunction screening

For satellite conjunction prediction containing many objects, timely processing can be a concern. Various filters are used to identify orbiting pairs that cannot come close enough over a prescribed time period to be considered hazardous. Such pairings can then be eliminated from further computation to quicken the overall processing time. One such filter is the orbit path filter (also known as the geometric pre-filter), designed to eliminate pairs of objects based on characteristics of orbital motion. The goal of this filter is to eliminate pairings where the distance (geometry) between their orbits remains above some user-defined threshold, irrespective of the actual locations of the satellites along their paths. Rather than using a single distance bound, this work presents a toroid approach, providing a measure of versatility by allowing the user to specify different in-plane and out-of-plane bounds for the path filter. The primary orbit is used to define a focus-centered elliptical ring torus with user-defined thresholds. An assessment is then made to determine if the secondary orbit can touch or penetrate this torus. The method detailed here can be used on coplanar, as well as non-coplanar, orbits.     

Model orbits of asteroid 3040 Kozai

The orbital evolutions of the asteroid 3040 Kozai and model asteroids with similar orbits have been investigated. Their osculating orbits for an epoch 1991 December 10 were numerically integrated forward within the interval of 20,000 years, using a dynamical model of the solar system consisting of all inner planets, Jupiter, and Saturn.The orbit of the asteroid Kozai is stable. Its motion is affected only by long-period perturbations of planets. With change of the argument of perihelion of the asteroid Kozai, the evolution of the model asteroid orbits changes essentially, too. The model orbits with the argument of perihelion changed by the order of 10% show that asteroids with such orbital parameters may approach the Earth orbit, while asteroids with larger changes may even cross it, at least after 10,000 years. Long-term orbital evolution of asteroids with these orbital parameters is very sensitive on their angular elements.