Adaptive neuro-fuzzy evaluation of wind farm power production as function of wind speed and direction

Wind velocity assumes a critical part for measuring the power created by the wind turbines. Nonetheless, power production from wind has a few weaknesses. One significant issue is that wind is a discontinuous energy source which implies that there exists substantial variability in the generation of vigor because of different variables, for example, wind speed. Wind direction is a significant variable for proficient turbine control for getting the most energy with a given wind speed. Taking into account the conjectures on wind heading, it might be conceivable to adjust the turbine to the wind bearing to get the most energy yield. Since both forecasts of wind speed and direction are basic for effective wind energy collecting it is crucial to develop a methodology for estimation of wind speed and direction and afterwards to estimate wind farm power production as function of wind pace and heading distribution. Despite the fact that various numerical functions have been proposed for demonstrating the wind speed and direction frequency distribution, there are still disadvantages of the models like very demanding in terms of calculation time. In this investigation adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), which is a particular sort of the artificial neural networks (ANN) family, was used to anticipate the wind speed and direction frequency dispersion. Thereafter, the ANFIS system was utilized to gauge wind homestead power creation as function of wind velocity and bearing. Neural system in ANFIS modifies parameters of enrollment capacity in the fuzzy logic of the fuzzy inference system. The reenactment outcomes exhibited in this paper demonstrate the adequacy of the created technique.     

On the variability of the Charnock constant and the functional dependence of the drag coefficient on wind speed

A model for the air–sea interface, based on the coupled pair of similarity relations for “aerodynamically” rough flow in both fluids, is presented, which is applied to fetch-limited and high wind speed conditions which occur, for example, in hurricanes. It is shown that the specification of the maximum 10-m drag coefficient and the 10-m wind speed and the peak wave speed at which it occurs are sufficient to uniquely determine the drag law, which asymptotes at low wind speeds to a Charnock constant similar to that for the fully developed wind wave sea and is almost independent of the peak wave speed at the maximum in drag coefficient. A feature of the drag law is that it is of Charnock form, almost independent of the wave age, consistent with the transfer of momentum to the wave spectrum being due to the smaller rather than the dominant wavelengths. The analysis is also applied to a variable sea state in which either the surface wind or the surface Stokes drift vary, but the peak wave speed is kept constant. The corresponding variability in the Charnock constant is in general accord with observations.     

Variations in wind direction and speed from arctic to the Caspian Sea as a manifestation of modern climate changes

The regularities in present-day variations in the wind speed vector are examined at 18 stations along the section from Kola Peninsula to the Caspian Sea. Data on long-term variations in the major climate-forming factors and climatic parameters are generalized. The statistically significant tendency toward a considerable decline in the wind speed with a maximum module and the most frequent wind speeds of zonal, mostly western, directions (this tendency has been revealed earlier for the eastern coast of the middle and southern Caspian Sea) was found to hold for the greater part of the European Russia. Possible causes of present-day climate changes and their manifestations at the regional level are analyzed. A possible mechanism of present-day climate changes is proposed     

海陆风及沿海风速廓线在风电场风速预报中的应用

为了建立沿海风功率预报系统,本文探讨了中国沿海风电场风速预报问题,并利用数值模式RAMS对海陆风进行了模拟研究.发现海陆风发生时,海风和陆风阶段风速廓线存在较大差异,海风阶段风速的垂直切变明显小于陆风阶段.海陆风发生时,风速会呈现有规律的变化,即海风和陆风分别有两个时段：风速增加时段和风速减少时段.在为沿海风电场提供风速预报时,当模式预报到海陆风发生时,可以利用海陆风的这种特点,使用统计方法对预报出的风速进行有效的订正.并发现即使没有海陆风发生,当风向为海洋吹向陆地时,风速随高度的垂直切变同样小于陆地吹向海洋的时段.利用统计方法根据不同风向时风速廓线的特性,把数值模式计算高度上的预报结果,精确地插值到风机涡轮高度,会很大程度上减少风速预报的误差及风功率预报环节的误差.     

On the variability of the Charnock constant and the functional dependence of the drag coefficient on wind speed: Part II-Observations

An analytical expression for the 10 m drag law in terms of the 10 m wind speed at the maximum in the 10 m drag coefficient, and the Charnock constant is presented, which is based on the results obtained from a model of the air-sea interface derived in Bye et al. (2010). This drag law is almost independent of wave age and over the mid-range of wind speeds (5?17 ms^?1) is very similar to the drag law based on observed data presented in Foreman and Emeis (2010). The linear fit of the observed data which incorporates a constant into the traditional definition of the drag coefficient is shown to arise to first-order as a consequence of the momentum exchange across the air-sea boundary layer brought about by wave generation and spray production which are explicitly represented in the theoretical model.     

Attenuation of compressional waves in peridotite measured as a function of temperature at 200 MPa

A technique has been developed to determine attenuation in rocks at high temperature using a gas-media, high-pressure apparatus. A pulse transmission technique and a spectral ratio method are used to study compressional seismic properties of rocks. Seismic waves are transmitted to and from the sample through buffer rods of mullite. The effect of seismic wave reflections within the sample assembly are cancelled out by taking ratios of the spectra measured at different temperatures. In order to obtain good signal-to-noise ratio for resolving the attenuation at high pressure and temperature, special care is taken in the sample assembly and the ultrasonic coupling between the sample, buffer rods and transducers. A very tight connection of the sample-buffer rod-transducer is essential for obtaining high frequency signals (>300 kHz) at high temperature. A small mass is attached to each outside end of the transducer to drive low frequency signals (<250 kHz) into the sample. Before attenuation measurements, the sample and the buffer rods are tightly compacted in a platinum tube at high pressure and room temperature to ensure pressure seal of the sample assembly. The frequency range of measurement covers 50 to 450 kHz for the sample. Attenuation is very small in the buffer rod compared to the sample for the entire temperature range of the study. Because of the small attenuation, a wide frequency band of 50 kHz to 3.2 MHz can be covered for investigating the attenuation in the buffer rod. The technique has been used to measure attenuation at high confining pressure, and temperatures including sub- and hyper-solidus of upper mantle rocks. Therefore, effects of partial melting on attenuation can be studied.The method is applied to the attenuation measurement in a peridotite as a function of temperature to 1225°C at 200 MPa confining pressure. At high temperature, signal amplitude decays more rapidly at high frequency than at low frequency, from which attenuation (andQ) can be determined using a spectral ratio method. No frequency dependence ofQ is resolved for both the sample and the buffer rod over the entire temperature and frequency ranges of the measurement. The results show thatQ decreases rapidly with increasing temperature even in the temperature range below the solidus of peridotites. Such temperature sensitivity ofQ is probably more useful to probe thermal structure in the upper mantle than that of conductivity at temperatures below the solidus. The results in this study are compared with available seismic velocity, electrical conductivity and solidus data for peridotites, suggesting that there is no discontinuous change in both mechanical and electrical properties of peridotites at the solidus temperature. Even at hypersolidus temperatures, it appears that velocity drops and conductivity increases continuously (not abruptly) with increasing melt fraction. This implies that mechanical and electrical properties of the upper mantle will gradually change at the boundary where the geotherm crosses the solidus.     

Estimation of soil loss at a regional scale based on plot measurements—some critical considerations

The paper is prompted by apparent deficiencies in the design of plot studies in regional erosion surveys. The principal shortcomings of observational erosion research have been poor sampling design and inadequate analyses of data. The paper identifies various sources of bias which must be taken into account before plot data can be extrapolated to land units in a regional survey. Judging from soil loss data of a case-study in the Ardèche rangelands one may conclude that even accurate plot measurements can still be rather a rough basis for regional erosion assessment. Finally, the paper highlights strategies that might be used to improve erosion sampling.     

A methodology to estimate the maximum offset and reflection imaging radius for a 2D/3D vertical seismic profiling survey

We have developed a straightforward and ray based methodology to estimate both the maximum offset and reflection imaging radius for multi‐layered velocity models, which can be used for a 2D/3D VSP survey design. Through numerical examples, we demonstrate that the presence of a high‐velocity layer above a target zone significantly reduces the maximum offset and reflection imaging radius. Our numerical examples also show that including in a migration VSP data acquired beyond a recommended maximum offset, radically degrades the quality of the final VSP image. In addition, unlike the conventional straight‐line based approximation that often produces an incorrect large reflection imaging radius, our methodology predicts the VSP imaging radius with more accuracy than does the conventional approximation.     

Comparing an estimate of seabirds at risk to a mortality estimate from the November 2004 Terra Nova FPSO oil spill

On 21 November 2004, about 1000 barrels of crude oil were accidentally released from the Terra Nova FPSO (floating production, storage and offloading) onto the Grand Banks, approximately 340 km east-southeast of St. John's, Newfoundland. We estimated the number of vulnerable seabirds (murres (Uria spp.) and dovekies (Alle alle)) at risk from this incident by multiplying observed densities of seabirds with the total area covered by the slick, estimated at 793 km(2). A mean density of 3.46 murres/km(2) and 1.07 dovekies/km(2) on the sea surface was recorded during vessel-based surveys on 28 and 29 November 2004, with a mean density of 6.90 murres/km(2) and 13.43 dovekies/km(2) combining those on the sea and in flight. We calculated a mean of 9858 murres and dovekies were at risk of being oiled, with estimates ranging from 3593 to 16,122 depending on what portion of birds in flight were assumed to be at risk. A mortality model based on spill volume was derived independently of the risk model, and estimated that 4688 (CI 95%: 1905-12,480) birds were killed during this incident. A low mortality estimate based strictly on spill volume would be expected for this incident, which occurred in an area of relatively high seabird densities. Given that the risk and mortality estimates are statistically indistinguishable, we estimate that on the order of 10,000 birds were killed by the Terra Nova spill.     

Effects of neutral wind on the electron temperature at a height of 600 km in the low latitude region

Electron temperature observed by the Hinotori satellite with the low inclination at the height of \sim600 km was studied in terms of local time, season, latitude, magnetic declination and solar flux intensity during a 16-month period from 1981 to 1982. The electron temperatures show steep rise in the early morning (well known as morning overshoot), decrease after that and again increase at \sim18 hours (hereafter named as evening overshoot). Generally the morning overshoot becomes more enhanced in the winter hemisphere and for higher solar fluxes. The evening overshoot becomes more pronounced in the mid-latitude in all seasons and more enhanced in the winter hemisphere in the same way as the morning overshoot. A difference is seen between 210°-285° and 285°-360° longitudes where magnetic declination is different. The longitudinal dependence of electron temperature indicates that the neutral wind also contributes to the thermal structure in the low latitude ionosphere.     

Influence of topography on wind speed over a coastal dune and blowout system at Jockey's Ridge,NC, USA

This study examines the spatial distribution of wind speed across a coastal dune system located at Jockey's Ridge State Park, North Carolina. The study area consists of a trough blowout through a foredune ridge, and the landforms that have developed behind the foredune. Wind speed and direction were measured simultaneously with single sensors placed at a fixed height in 13 locations across the blowout/dune complex. Fractional wind speed‐up is computed for sampling stations using data from a mast located on the beach as the reference. Results show that wind speeds were generally accelerated across the study site. The highest speeds were recorded on the foredune ridges adjacent to the blowout. Wind was accelerated through the center of the blowout throat and along the downwind lateral wall. Further into the blowout, at the base of the ramp to the depositional lobe, higher wind speeds shifted to the upwind lateral wall and continued to accelerate up the ramp as air exited to the rear. Significant variations in the wind speed‐up pattern were associated with different wind approach angles, with greater speed‐up occurring when the winds were aligned normal to the dune system. The speed‐up decreased as the angle of approach became increasingly oblique to the ridge. The patterns of wind speed‐up across the site point to the influence of topography on airflow. To quantify the relationship, measures of several topographic variables were obtained along sample transects running upwind from each sample station along flow lines representing different wind approach angles. Examination of correlation coefficients between wind speed‐up and topographic variables suggests that for groups of stations with similar topographic characteristics, 30–50% of the variations in speed‐up may be explained by the upwind topographic variability. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic time–frequency analysis as a robust method to estimate the fluid saturation: A case study of carbonates reservoir,Iran

The propagation of seismic waves through a saturated reservoir compresses the fluid in the pore spaces. During this transition, parts of seismic energy would be attenuated because of intrinsic absorption. Rock physics models make the bridge between the seismic properties and petrophysical reality in the earth. Attenuation is one of the significant seismic attributes used to describe the fluid behaviour in the reservoirs. We examined the core samples using ultrasonic experiments at the reservoir conditions. Given the rock properties of the carbonate reservoir and experiment results, the patchy saturation mechanism was solved for substituted fluid using the theory of modulus frequency. The extracted relationship between the seismic attenuation and water saturation was used in time–frequency analysis. We performed the peak frequency method to estimate the Q factor in the Gabor domain and determined the water saturation based on the computed rock physics model. The results showed how the probable fault in the reservoir has stopped the fluid movement in the reservoir and caused touching the water‐bearing zone through drilling.     

Measured oxygen fugacities of the Angra dos Reis achondrite as a function of temperature

Measurements of the oxygen fugacity (?O₂) as a function of temperature (T) were made on an interior bulk sample of the cumulate achondrite, Angra dos Reis. Data clustered between the?O₂-T relationship of the iron-wüstite assemblage and 1.2 log atm units above iron-wüstite. Interpretation of the data indicates that, throughout most of the cooling history of the meteorite, ?O₂ values were defined by equilibria involving iron-bearing species at values close to the ?O₂ of the assemblage iron-wüstite. Measured ?O₂ data are compatible with crystallization and cooling at pressures greater than 50 bars.     

YSU边界层参数化方案中不同地形订正方法对地面风速及温度模拟的影响

为了修正中尺度气象模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting model)对低层风速模拟的系统性误差,有学者在新版本WRF模式的YSU(Yonsei University)边界层参数化方案中加入了两个地形订正方法:Jiménez方法和UW(University of Washington method)方法.本文利用这两个地形订正方法,选取了两个时间段,对北京地区的地面气象要素以及气象要素垂直廓线进行了个例模拟研究,模拟结果和观测数据的比对表明在北京地区:是否采用地形订正,对地面温度的模拟几乎没有影响;采用地形订正后,模式对地面风速的模拟有明显的改进,两种方法对风速模拟的差别主要体现在山/丘陵地区;Jiménez方法在山/丘陵地区的模拟风速明显偏大,而采用UW方法进行订正后,模拟的风速减小,更接近观测值;两种方法在山谷地区对风速均有一定的过度订正.通过分析气象要素的垂直廓线发现,不同地形订正方法主要影响的是2000 m以下的低层风速.总体而言,UW地形订正方法在北京地区更为适用,采用UW方法后,模拟得到的地面气象要素的各项统计参数基本达到了统计基准值.     

Types of spectra of ion flux fluctuations in the solar wind and magnetosheath at the interface between inertial and dissipative ranges

This paper considers the features of turbulent characteristics of ion flux variations in the solar wind and magnetosheath at the scale of 0.01–10 Hz based on measurements on the BMSW plasma spectrometer (Plasma-F experiment) mounted on the Spektr-R satellite. A variability of types of fluctuation frequency spectra is shown. Fluctuation spectra with certain features in the transition region from the inertial to the dissipative range are selected (a sharp knee in the fluctuation spectrum, plateau and peak in the knee, and a nonlinear spectrum bend at high frequencies). The degree of difference between the observed spectra and the spectra characteristic of the developed isotropic turbulence in the Kolmogorov model is determined. The probability of observation of the spectra of certain types is estimated. The features of fluctuation spectra in the solar wind and magnetosheath are compared for each type of spectra.     

1987-2017年间南极点大气风温垂直结构及趋势变化特征

本文基于1987—2017年南极点的无线电探空数据,研究了地面至30 km海拔高度的气温、风向和风速的垂直分布及变化趋势.多年平均的逐月数据表明,气温在各高度上均具有显著的季节变化,南半球夏季（冬季）对流层低层温度最高达-25℃（最低达-60℃）,分别出现于1月（7月）地面以上约500 m（近地面）.近30年来,年平均地面气温呈0.3℃/10a的增加趋势,增温趋势总体上随高度增加而减缓,至对流层上层的气温变化趋势为负,约为-0.25℃/10a.对于对流层整层平均气温,秋季上升趋势在四季中最为明显,达0.55℃/10a,而年平均气温的趋势约为0.3℃/10a.近地面全年盛行东北风,风速大多在2~10 m·s^-1范围内;对流层的低层（高层）为西北风（西南风）,在海拔6~9 km处,对流层急流可达25 m·s^-1;而平流层低层（高层）为南风（东南风）,最大风速可超过30 m·s^-1.风速和温度梯度变化特征在地面至10 km（10~30 km）高度段表现为负相关（正相关）.近30年近地面呈现北风增加东风减少的趋势,而高空南风减少,东风和北风增多.对流层整层平均风速显示,各季节平均风速均呈增加趋势,并且与温度类似,秋季的增加趋势最显著,达0.59 m·s^-1/10a,而春季趋势最为平缓,仅0.05 m·s^-1/10a.对流层整层年平均风速的线性趋势为0.24 m·s^-1/10a,地面年平均风速呈0.05 m·s^-1/10a的增加趋势.

     

Erodibility of some crust forming soils/sediments from the Southern Aral Sea Basin as determined in a wind tunnel

Severe dust storms in the Southern Aral Sea Basin have become common with the desiccation of the sea. The high incidence of dust in the area has had severe ecological consequences. Within the framework of efforts to reduce this phenomenon, deflatability as well as deflatability‐related characteristics of some prominent soils/sediment surfaces in the Southern Aral Sea Basin were examined. The materials included a salt crust from a developed Solonchak, a Takyr crust and a Takyr‐like soil, and salt crusts from undeveloped Solonchaks formed on the exposed bottom of the Aral Sea. Characteristics determined were particle size distribution, dry aggregate size distribution and salt, carbonate and organic carbon contents. Deflatability was examined using a suction type wind tunnel with a SENSIT‐type sensor to detect airborne unconsolidated material, on materials treated to different moisture levels and with a chemical stabilizer, and on restored crusts created from the unconsolidated materials. Fine sand dominates in the materials, and in the Takyr crust and Takyr‐like soils is accompanied by significant amounts of silt and clay. All materials contain moderate amounts of carbonate and are low in organic matter. All soils/sediments contain salts, but in the salt crusts of the Solonchaks the salt fraction dominates. They all have more than 50 per cent PM₈₅₀ (particles with diameter <850 µm), indicating a relatively high deflatability potential. The materials from the Takyr crusts and Takyr‐like soil with a high proportion of fine aggregates had the lowest threshold friction velocities, while the salt crusts of the Solonchaks with a high proportion of coarse aggregates had the highest. This suggests that Takyrs and Takyr‐like soils are the most deflatable and Solonchak soils the least deflatable. These differences are attributed to the presence of salts that create stable, large aggregates in the Solonchak crusts. Wetting of the materials to three moisture levels considerably increased threshold friction velocity. The increase was most prominent in the salt‐rich materials, and was attributed to the rapid formation of surface films by drying in the course of the wind tunnel determinations. Applications of chemical stabilizers at two levels also considerably increased threshold friction velocity. On the restored crusts, threshold friction velocity dramatically increased, occasionally to non‐recordable values. This increase was monitored with both the salt crusts characteristic for the Solonchak soils and the fine‐grained crusts characteristic for the Takyr soils. The stability was attributed to the tightly packed salt particles in the salt crusts, and to the cohesive properties of the fine‐grained materials in the Takyr crusts. Once the crusts were ruptured, however, strong deflation commenced. These results suggest that by maintaining moisture in the soils/sediments (for example, by maintaining a high water table in the Amu‐Darya river flood plain) deflation can be reduced. By the same means, deflation can be reduced by creating new crusts or by preserving existing crusts. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Properties of some rocks from the section of the Kola ultradeep borehole as a function of the P-T parameters

Using core samples of the Kola ultradeep borehole (SG-3) and their surface analogues, variations in the density and elastic properties of some crystalline rocks of the Earth’s crust are estimated by modeling of in situ conditions. It is shown that the bulk density and the elastic wave velocities in the rocks have a weak depth gradient. In the SG-3 section under consideration, this gradient is negative. The resulting dependences for estimating the variations in the properties of the crystalline rocks are suitable for the depth range from the surface to 20–30 km. The initial data for the linear approximation of the characteristics can be obtained from the results of tests of surface analogue samples. It is shown that the velocity anisotropy of the metamorphic rocks can vary within wide limits.     

A simple method using climatic variables to estimate canopy temperature,sensible and latent heat fluxes in a winter wheat field on the North China Plain

Estimation of evapotranspiration from a crop field is of great importance for detecting crop water status and proper irrigation scheduling. The Penman–Monteith equation is widely viewed as the best method to estimate evapotranspiration but it requires canopy resistance, which is very difficult to determine in practice. This paper presents a simple method simplified from the Penman–Monteith equation for estimating canopy temperature (T_c). The proposed method is a biophysically‐sound extended version of that proposed by Todorovic. The estimated canopy temperature is used to calculate sensible heat flux, and then latent heat flux is calculated as the residual of the surface energy balance. An eddy covariance (EC) system and an infrared thermometer (IRT) were installed in an irrigated winter wheat field on the North China Plain in 2004 and 2005, to measure T_c, and sensible and latent heat fluxes were used to test the modified Todorovic model (MTD). The results indicate that the original Todorovic model (TD) severely underestimates T_c and sensible heat flux, and hence severely overestimates the latent heat flux. However, the MTD model has good capability for estimating T_c, and gives acceptable results for latent heat flux at both half‐hourly and daily scales. The MTD model results also agreed well with the evapotranspiration calculated from the measured T_c. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.