How do La Niña events disturb the summer monsoon system in Brazil?

The rainy season in most of Brazil is associated with the summer monsoon regime in South America. The quality of this season is important because it rains little during the rest of the year over most of the country. In this study, the influence of La Niña events on the summer monsoon circulation, rainfall and temperature is analyzed with seasonal and monthly resolution, using data from a dense network of stations, giving a comprehensive view of the impact of these events. The expected precipitation percentiles during the monsoon season of La Niña events are calculated, as well as anomalies of surface temperature and thermodynamic parameters. This information is analyzed jointly with anomaly composites of several circulation parameters. The analysis shows that some anomalies, which are consistent and important during part of the season, are smoothed out in a seasonal analysis. There are abrupt changes of anomalies within the summer monsoon season, suggesting the prevalence of regional processes over remote influences during part of the season. In spring there are positive precipitation anomalies in north and central-east Brazil and negative ones in south Brazil. These precipitation anomalies are favored by the perturbation in the Walker and Hadley circulation over the eastern Pacific and South America, and by perturbations in the rotational circulation over southern South America. Northerly moisture inflow from the Atlantic into northern South America is emphasized and diverted towards the mouth of the Amazon by the low-level cyclonic anomaly north of the equator. In December and January, probably triggered by anomalous surface cooling during the spring, there is an anomalous low-level divergence and an anticyclonic anomaly over southeast Brazil. This anomalous circulation directs moisture flux towards south Brazil, causing moisture convergence in part of this region and part of central-west Brazil. The thermodynamic structure in central-east Brazil does not favor precipitation over this region, and the wet anomalies in north Brazil are displaced northward. The dry anomalies in south Brazil almost disappear and even turn positive. In February, after the strongly below normal precipitation of January, the surface temperature anomalies turn positive over southeast Brazil. The low-level anticyclonic anomaly is much weaker than in January. There are positive rainfall anomalies in north Brazil and in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone, and negative ones return to south Brazil.     

Summer precipitation variability over Southeastern South America in a global warming scenario

December–January–February (DJF) rainfall variability in southeastern South America (SESA) is studied in 18 coupled general circulation models from the WCRP/CMIP3 dataset, for present climate and the SRES-A1B climate change scenario. The analysis is made in terms of properties of the first leading pattern of rainfall variability in the region, characterized by a dipole-like structure with centers of action in the SESA and South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) regions. The study was performed to address two issues: how rainfall variability in SESA would change in a future climate and how much of that change explains the projected increasing trends in the summer mean rainfall in SESA identified in previous works. Positive (negative) dipole events were identified as those DJF seasons with above (below) normal rainfall in SESA and below (above) normal rainfall in the SACZ region. Results obtained from the multi-model ensemble confirm that future rainfall variability in SESA has a strong projection on the changes of seasonal dipole pattern activity, associated with an increase of the frequency of the positive phase. In addition, the frequency increase of positive dipole phase in the twenty first century seems to be associated with an increase of both frequency and intensity of positive SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, and with a Rossby wave train-like anomaly pattern linking that ocean basin to South America, which regionally induces favorable conditions for moisture transport convergence and rainfall increase in SESA.     

Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the winter climate of East China

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （AMO）, the multidecadal variation of North Atlantic sea surface temperature （SST）, exhibits an oscillation with a period of 65-80 years and an amplitude of 0.4℃. Observational composite analyses reveal that the warm phase AMO is linked to warmer winters in East China, with enhanced precipitation in the north of this region and reduced precipitation in the south, on multidecadal time scales. The pattern is reversed during the cold phase AMO. Whether the AMO acts as a forcing of the multidecadal winter climate of East China is explored by investigating the atmospheric response to warm AMO SST anomalies in a large ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） experiments. The results from three AGCMs are consistent and suggest that the AMO warmth favors warmer winters in East China. This influence is realized through inducing negative surface air pressure anomalies in the hemispheric-wide domain extending from the midlatitude North Atlantic to midlatitude Eurasia. These negative surface anomalies favor the weakening of the Mongolian Cold High, and thus induce a weaker East Asian Winter Monsoon.     

Enhanced spring convective barrier for monsoons in a warmer world?

Twenty-first century climate model projections show an amplification of the annual cycle in tropical precipitation with increased strength in both wet and dry seasons, but uncertainty is large and few studies have examined transition seasons. Here we analyze coupled climate model projections of global land monsoons and show a redistribution of precipitation from spring to summer in northern (North America, West Africa and Southeast Asia) and southern (South America, Southern Africa) regions. The annual cycle changes are global in scale. Two mechanisms, remote (based on tropospheric stability) and local (based on low level and surface moisture), are evaluated through the annual cycle. Increases in tropospheric stability persist from winter into spring and are reinforced by a reduction in surface moisture conditions, suggesting that in spring both remote and local mechanisms act to inhibit convection. This enhanced spring convective barrier leads to reduced early season rainfall; however, once sufficient increases in moisture (by transport) are achieved, decreases in tropospheric stability result in increased precipitation during the late rainy season. Further examination of this mechanism is needed in observations and models, as the projected changes would have substantial implications for agriculture, water management, and disaster preparedness.     

Quantifying the Spatial Characteristics of the Moisture Transport Affecting Precipitation Seasonality and Recycling Variability in Central Asia

Moisture contribution and transport pathways for Central Asia(CA)are quantitatively examined using the Lagrangian water cycle model based on reanalysis and observational data to explain the precipitation seasonality and the moisture transport variation during 1979-2015.Westerly-related(northwesterly and westerly)transport explains 42%of CA precipitation and dominates in southwest CA,where precipitation is greatest in the cold season.Southeast CA,including part of Northwest China,experiences its maximum precipitation in the warm season and is solely dominated by southerly transport,which explains about 48%of CA precipitation.The remaining 10%of CA precipitation is explained by northerly transport,which steadily impacts north CA and causes a maximum in precipitation in the warm season.Most CA areas are exposed to seasonally varying moisture transport,except for southeast and north CA,which are impacted by southerly and northerly transport year-round.In general,the midlatitude westerlies-driven transport and the Indian monsoon-driven southerly-related transport explain most of the spatial differences in precipitation seasonality over CA.Moreover,the contribution ratio of local evaporation in CA to precipitation exhibits significant interdecadal variability and a meridionally oriented tripole of moisture transport anomalies.Since the early 2000s,CA has experienced a decade of anomalously low local moisture contribution,which seems jointly determined by the weakened moisture contribution from midlatitudes(the Atlantic,Europe,and CA itself)and the enhanced contribution from high latitudes(West Siberia and the Arctic)and tropical areas(South Asia and the Indian Ocean).     

The relationship between South Atlantic SST and SACZ intensity and positioning

This study explores the ocean–atmosphere interaction in the formation and dynamics of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), through the analysis of the heat sources estimated through the outgoing longwave radiation. The results obtained with this study show that the coupled variability between SACZ and the South Atlantic Ocean indicates that in northern positioned SACZ cases (over Southeastern Brazil), westerly anomalies are verified in the low level continental tropical circulation, consistent with the active phase of the South America Monsoon System (SAMS). In these cases, cold anomalies in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean cause an increase in the continent–ocean temperature gradient, favoring an easterly flow in this region, and blocking the SACZ at a northerly position. Easterly anomalies in the tropical continent were verified in the low level circulation in southern positioned cases (over Southern Brazil), consistent with the SAMS break phase. The SST anomaly patterns indicate cold anomalies in the tropics and warm anomalies in the subtropics, which do not favor the development of an easterly flow at low levels over the western tropical Atlantic. In these cases, two situations may occur: the strengthening of the Low Level Jet (LLJ), which prevails in the eastern subtropical South America and convergence with the South Atlantic Subtropical High at its southern position; or the atmospheric unstable conditions caused by ocean warm SST anomalies (in this case the LLJ may be weaker than its climatological intensity).     

Changes in the South Pacific Convergence Zone in IPCC AR4 future climate projections

The response of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) to climate change is examined using simulations from 16 coupled climate models under the A2 emission scenario carried out for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Characteristics of the austral summer SPCZ in the late twenty-first century are compared with the late twentieth century: the orientation and latitude of the SPCZ precipitation band; the area and intensity of precipitation within the SPCZ; and the eastern extent of the SPCZ. Changes in the SPCZ position are examined using a simple linear fit to the band of maximum precipitation and using a “pattern matching” technique. Both techniques find no consistent shift in the slope or mean latitude of the austral summer SPCZ. However, many models simulate a westward shift in the eastern edge of the SPCZ in austral summer, with reduced precipitation to the east of around 150°W. The westward contraction of the SPCZ is associated with a strengthening of the trade winds in the southeast Pacific and an increased zonal sea surface temperature gradient across the South Pacific. The majority of models simulate an increase in the area of the SPCZ and in mean and maximum precipitation within the SPCZ, defined by a 6?mm/day precipitation threshold, consistent with increased moisture convergence in a warmer climate. Changes in the SPCZ response to ENSO are examined using ENSO precipitation composites. The SPCZ has a reduced slope and is shifted towards the equator in the A2 multi-model mean El Ni?o composite.     

Hydroclimatic trends during 1950–2018 over global land

Global hydroclimatic changes from 1950 to 2018 are analyzed using updated data of land precipitation, streamflow, and an improved form of the Palmer Drought Severity Index. The historical changes are then compared with climate model-simulated response to external forcing to determine how much of the recent change is forced response. It is found that precipitation has increased from 1950 to 2018 over mid-high latitude Eurasia, most North America, Southeast South America, and Northwest Australia, while it has decreased over most Africa, eastern Australia, the Mediterranean region, the Middle East, and parts of East Asia, central South America, and the Pacific coasts of Canada. Streamflow records largely confirm these precipitation changes. The wetting trend over Northwest Australia and Southeast South America is most pronounced in austral summer while the drying over Africa and wetting trend over mid-high latitude Eurasia are seen in all seasons. Coupled with the drying caused by rising surface temperatures, these precipitation changes have greatly increased the risk of drought over Africa, southern Europe, East Asia, eastern Australia, Northwest Canada, and southern Brazil. Global land precipitation and continental freshwater discharge show large interannual and inter-decadal variations, with negative anomalies during El Niño and following major volcanic eruptions in 1963, 1982, and 1991; whereas their decadal variations are correlated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) with IPO’s warm phase associated with low land precipitation and continental discharge. The IPO and Atlantic multidecadal variability also dominate multidecadal variations in land aridity, accounting for 90 % of the multidecadal variance. CMIP5 multi-model ensemble mean shows decreased precipitation and runoff and increased risk of drought during 1950–2018 over Southwest North America, Central America, northern and central South America (including the Amazon), southern and West Africa, the Mediterranean region, and Southeast Asia; while the northern mid-high latitudes, Southeast South America, and Northwest Australia see increased precipitation and runoff. The consistent spatial patterns between the observed changes and the model-simulated response suggest that many of the observed drying and wetting trends since 1950 may have resulted at least partly from historical external forcing. However, the drying over Southeast Asia and wetting over Northwest Australia are absent in the 21st century projections.

     

The role of SST on the South American atmospheric circulation during January, February and March 2001

Precipitation deficits were observed over southeastern, northeastern and Central Brazil during the 2001 Austral Summer. They contributed to the worsening of the energy crisis that was occurring in the country. A low-level anomalous anticyclonic circulation observed over eastern Brazil enhanced the deviation of moisture transport that usually occurs from the Amazon Basin to southeastern Brazil and inhibited the occurrence of South Atlantic Convergence Zone events in that period. However, an anomalous low-level northerly moisture flux was observed over the La Plata Basin, and positive precipitation anomalies occurred over Bolivia, Paraguay, northeastern Argentina and southern Brazil. Using the ensemble technique, a numerical study was carried out to investigate the role of different sea surface temperature (SST) forcings observed over this anomalous South American atmospheric circulation. Reynolds SST monthly means were used as boundary conditions to study the influence of South Atlantic, South Indian, South Pacific and Equatorial Pacific oceans. The simulations were run from September 2000 to April 2001 using the Community Climate Model version 3.6 General Circulation Model. Ten integrations using different initial conditions were done to each experiment. Numerical experiments suggested that the combined influence of South Pacific and Equatorial Pacific oceans could be responsible for the drought observed over Central Brazil. These experiments simulated the low-level anticyclonic anomaly observed over eastern Brazil. However, both experiments have poorly reproduced the intensity of the anomalous low-level northerly moisture flux observed over the La Plata Basin. Therefore, the intensity of the simulated precipitation anomalies over the subtropical regions was much weaker than observed.     

Projected changes in South Asian summer monsoon by multi-model global warming experiments

South Asian summer monsoon (June through September) rainfall simulation and its potential future changes are evaluated in a multi-model ensemble of global coupled climate models outputs under World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (WCRP CMIP3) dataset. The response of South Asian summer monsoon to a transient increase in future anthropogenic radiative forcing is investigated for two time slices, middle (2031–2050) and end of the twenty-first century (2081–2100), in the non-mitigated Special Report on Emission Scenarios B1, A1B and A2 .There is large inter-model variability in the simulation of spatial characteristics of seasonal monsoon precipitation. Ten out of the 25 models are able to simulate space–time characteristics of the South Asian monsoon precipitation reasonably well. The response of these selected ten models has been examined for projected changes in seasonal monsoon rainfall. The multi-model ensemble of these ten models projects a significant increase in monsoon precipitation with global warming. The substantial increase in precipitation is observed over western equatorial Indian Ocean and southern parts of India. However, the monsoon circulation weakens significantly under all the three climate change experiments. Possible mechanisms for the projected increase in precipitation and for precipitation–wind paradox have been discussed. The surface temperature over Asian landmass increases in pre-monsoon months due to global warming and heat low over northwest India intensifies. The dipole snow configuration over Eurasian continent strengthens in warmer atmosphere, which is conducive for the enhancement in precipitation over Indian landmass. No notable changes have been projected in the El Niño–Monsoon relationship, which is useful for predicting interannual variations of the monsoon.     

Coupled climate impacts of the Drake Passage and the Panama Seaway

Tectonically-active gateways between ocean basins have modified ocean circulation over Earth history. Today, the Atlantic and Pacific are directly connected via the Drake Passage, which forms a barrier to the time-mean geostrophic transport between the subtropics and Antarctica. In contrast, during the warm early Cenozoic era, when Antarctica was ice-free, the Drake Passage was closed. Instead, at that time, the separation of North and South America provided a tropical seaway between the Atlantic and Pacific that remained open until the Isthmus of Panama formed in the relatively recent geological past. Ocean circulation models have previously been used to explore the individual impacts of the Drake Passage and the Panama Seaway, but rarely have the two gateways been considered together, and most explorations have used very simple atmospheric models. Here we use a coupled ocean–ice–atmosphere model (GFDL’s CM2Mc), to simulate the impacts of a closed Drake Passage both with and without a Panama Seaway. We find that the climate response to a closed Drake Passage is relatively small when the Panama Seaway is absent, similar to prior studies, although the coupling to a dynamical atmosphere does increase the temperature change. However, with a Panama Seaway, closing Drake Passage has a much larger effect, due to the cessation of deep water formation in the northern hemisphere. Both gateways alter the transport of salt by ocean circulation, with the Panama Seaway allowing fresh Pacific water to be imported to the North Atlantic, and the Drake Passage preventing the flow of saline subtropical water to the circum-Antarctic, a flow that is particularly strong when the Panama Seaway is open. Thus, with a Panama Seaway and a closed Drake Passage, the Southern Ocean tends to be relatively salty, while the North Atlantic tends to be relatively fresh, such that the deep ocean is ventilated from the circum-Antarctic. Ensuing changes in the ocean heat transport drive a bi-polar shift of surface ocean temperatures, and the Intertropical Convergence Zone migrates toward the warmer southern hemisphere. The response of clouds to changes in surface ocean temperatures amplifies the climate response, resulting in temperature changes of up to 9 °C over Antarctica, even in the absence of land-ice feedbacks. These results emphasize the importance of tectonic gateways to the climate history of the Cenozoic, and support a role for ocean circulation changes in the glaciation of Antarctica.     

Seasonal changes of the South American monsoon system during the Mid-Holocene in the CMIP5 simulations

The South American Monsoon System (SAMS) is a major climatic feature of South America, and its domain extends from Amazon to La Plata basin. The SAMS region is vulnerable to variations of climate and precipitation patterns, which could impact economic activities and lead to potential societal consequences. In the face of a warming future scenario, the importance of the study of the past climate with numerical simulations is to evaluate the climate models and to assure the reliability of future projections. Here we investigate the Mid-Holocene SAMS, evaluating changes in strength, life cycle and associated dynamical mechanisms in ten Earth System Models simulations. Our results show that the SAMS was weaker in the Mid-Holocene than in the pre-industrial climate in December–January–February (DJF), but stronger in September–October–November (SON). This is probably a consequence of insolation variations in the Mid-Holocene, which contributed to changes in the moisture flux from the Atlantic Ocean to the continent, the strength of the upper-level atmospheric circulation, and the amount of precipitation over the SAMS region. Moreover, we suggest that the life cycle of the SAMS was altered during the Mid-Holocene, with an earlier onset and demise. Our results also indicate that Mid-Holocene SAMS changes are connected to precipitation variations near Northeast Brazil, in a dipole configuration of precipitation between western Amazon and Northeast Brazil, due to the influence of the Walker cell. Finally, this study highlights a need for improvement of the numerical models to better simulate the amount of precipitation over South America and the upper-level circulation over western Amazon in SON, which are crucial factors for a more realistic representation of the SAMS.     

Regional climate simulations over South America: sensitivity to model physics and to the treatment of lateral boundary conditions using the MM5 model

In this study the capability of the MM5 model in simulating the main mode of intraseasonal variability during the warm season over South America is evaluated through a series of sensitivity experiments. Several 3-month simulations nested into ERA40 reanalysis were carried out using different cumulus schemes and planetary boundary layer schemes in an attempt to define the optimal combination of physical parameterizations for simulating alternating wet and dry conditions over La Plata Basin (LPB) and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone regions, respectively. The results were compared with different observational datasets and model evaluation was performed taking into account the spatial distribution of monthly precipitation and daily statistics of precipitation over the target regions. Though every experiment was able to capture the contrasting behavior of the precipitation during the simulated period, precipitation was largely underestimated particularly over the LPB region, mainly due to a misrepresentation in the moisture flux convergence. Experiments using grid nudging of the winds above the planetary boundary layer showed a better performance compared with those in which no constrains were imposed to the regional circulation within the model domain. Overall, no single experiment was found to perform the best over the entire domain and during the two contrasting months. The experiment that outperforms depends on the area of interest, being the simulation using the Grell (Kain–Fritsch) cumulus scheme in combination with the MRF planetary boundary layer scheme more adequate for subtropical (tropical) latitudes. The ensemble of the sensitivity experiments showed a better performance compared with any individual experiment.     

Impact of climate change on mid-twenty-first century growing seasons in Africa

Changes in growing seasons for 2041–2060 across Africa are projected using a regional climate model at 90-km resolution, and confidence in the predictions is evaluated. The response is highly regional over West Africa, with decreases in growing season days up to 20% in the western Guinean coast and some regions to the east experiencing 5–10% increases. A longer growing season up to 30% in the central and eastern Sahel is predicted, with shorter seasons in parts of the western Sahel. In East Africa, the short rains (boreal fall) growing season is extended as the Indian Ocean warms, but anomalous mid-tropospheric moisture divergence and a northward shift of Sahel rainfall severely curtails the long rains (boreal spring) season. Enhanced rainfall in January and February increases the growing season in the Congo basin by 5–15% in association with enhanced southwesterly moisture transport from the tropical Atlantic. In Angola and the southern Congo basin, 40–80% reductions in austral spring growing season days are associated with reduced precipitation and increased evapotranspiration. Large simulated reductions in growing season over southeastern Africa are judged to be inaccurate because they occur due to a reduction in rainfall in winter which is over-produced in the model. Only small decreases in the actual growing season are simulated when evapotranspiration increases in the warmer climate. The continent-wide changes in growing season are primarily the result of increased evapotranspiration over the warmed land, changes in the intensity and seasonal cycle of the thermal low, and warming of the Indian Ocean.     

Simulating the influence of the South Atlantic dipole on the South Atlantic convergence zone during neutral ENSO

The South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) is an intrinsic characteristic of the South American Summer Monsoon. In a recent study, we verified that the main mode of coupled variability over the South Atlantic (South Atlantic Dipole (SAD)) plays a role in modulating the position of extratropical cyclones that affect the SACZ precipitation. In this study, we perform numerical experiments to further investigate the mechanisms between SAD and the SACZ. Numerical experiments forced with prescribed SST anomalies showed that, even though the Atlantic SST affects the position of the cyclone associated with the SACZ, the atmospheric response and precipitation patterns over land are opposed to the observations. On the other hand, experiments forced with prescribed anomalous driving fields showed that the atmospheric component of SAD plays a significant role for the right position and intensity of precipitation associated with the SACZ. SAD negative anomalies provide the low-level and upper-level atmospheric support for the intensification of the cyclone at surface and for the increase in precipitation over the land portion of the SACZ. Therefore, the numerical experiments suggest that, during El Niño Southern Oscillation neutral conditions, the SACZ precipitation variability associated with SAD is largely dependent on the atmospheric variability rather than the underlying SST.     

长江源区近44年气候变化的若干统计分析

利用长江源区5个气象站44年的气温、降水量资料以及其中2个探空站500hPa露点资料,分析了该地区气候变化趋势、突变等情况。结果表明：近44年来长江源区气温普遍升高,冬季升温幅度较大,夏季增温趋势明显,进入21世纪后,长江源区春季平均气温在降低,夏、秋季平均气温增高较趋缓,而冬季增温加剧的趋势十分明显;年、夏季降水量变化呈微弱减少趋势,而冬、春和秋季降水量呈现出增加趋势,其中春季增幅较大,冬季增湿趋势明显;长江源区年平均气温在20世纪60年代末70年代初就显现出波动回升的趋势,在1986年前后发生了由冷到暖的突变,冬、春季降水量均在20世纪70年代和80年代出现了由少向多的突变。长江源区气候在波动性变暖变干过程中,自1986年起出现了气候转向暖湿的信号,其主要原因在于全球变暖并由此引起的海洋蒸发和陆地蒸散加强,地气水分循环加快,空中水汽输送加强。     

Assessing the role of North Atlantic freshwater forcing in millennial scale climate variability: a tropical Atlantic perspective

This study analyzes a three-member ensemble of experiments, in which 0.1 Sv of freshwater was applied to the North Atlantic for 100 years in order to address the potential for large freshwater inputs in the North Atlantic to drive abrupt climate change. The model used is the GFDL R30 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. We focus in particular on the effects of this forcing on the tropical Atlantic region, which has been studied extensively by paleoclimatologists. In response to the freshwater forcing, North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is reduced to roughly 40% by the end of the 100 year freshwater pulse. Consequently, the North Atlantic region cools by up to 8°C. The extreme cooling of the North Atlantic increases the pole-to-equator temperature gradient and requires more heat be provided to the high latitude Atlantic from the tropical Atlantic. To accommodate the increased heat requirement, the ITCZ shifts southward to allow for greater heat transport across the equator. Accompanying this southward ITCZ shift, the Northeast trade winds strengthen and precipitation patterns throughout the tropical Atlantic are altered. Specifically, precipitation in Northeast Brazil increases, and precipitation in Africa decreases slightly. In addition, we find that surface air temperatures warm over the tropical Atlantic and over Africa, but cool over northern South America. Sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic warm slightly with larger warm anomalies developing in the thermocline. These responses are robust for each member of the ensemble, and have now been identified by a number of freshwater forcing studies using coupled OAGCMs. The model responses to freshwater forcing are generally smaller in magnitude, but have the same direction, as paleoclimate data from the Younger Dryas suggest. In certain cases, however, the model responses and the paleoclimate data directly contradict one another. Discrepancies between the model simulations and the paleoclimate data could be due to a number of factors, including inaccuracies in the freshwater forcing, inappropriate boundary conditions, and uncertainties in the interpretation of the paleoclimate data. Despite these discrepancies, it is clear from our results that abrupt climate changes in the high latitude North Atlantic have the potential to significantly impact tropical climate. This warrants further model experimentation into the role of freshwater forcing in driving climate change.     

Links between Indo-Pacific climate variability and drought in the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas

Drought patterns across monsoon and temperate Asia over the period 1877–2005 are linked to Indo-Pacific climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Using the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) composed of a high-resolution network of hydroclimatically sensitive tree-ring records with a focus on the June–August months, spatial drought patterns during El Niño and IOD events are assessed as to their agreement with an instrumental drought index and consistency in the drought response amongst ENSO/IOD events. Spatial characteristics in drought patterns are related to regional climate anomalies over the Indo-Pacific basin, using reanalysis products, including changes in the Asian monsoon systems, zonal Walker circulation, moisture fluxes, and precipitation. A weakening of the monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia during El Niño events, along with anomalous subsidence over monsoon Asia and reduced moisture flux, is reflected in anomalous drought conditions over India, Southeast Asia and Indonesia. When an IOD event co-occurs with an El Niño, severe drought conditions identified in the MADA for Southeast Asia, Indonesia, eastern China and central Asia are associated with a weakened South Asian monsoon, reduced moisture flux over China, and anomalous divergent flow and subsidence over Indonesia. Insights into the relative influences of Pacific and Indian Ocean variability for Asian monsoon climate on interannual to decadal and longer timescales, as recorded in the MADA, provide a useful tool for assessing long-term changes in the characteristics of Asian monsoon droughts in the context of Indo-Pacific climate variability.     

Interdecadal variability of winter precipitation in Southeast China

Interdecadal variability of observed winter precipitation in Southeast China (1961–2010) is characterized by the first empirical orthogonal function of the three-monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) subjected to a 9-year running mean. For interdecadal time scales the dominating spatial modes represent monopole features involving the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Dynamic composite analysis (based on NCEP/NCAR reanalyzes) reveals the following results: (1) Interdecadal SPI-variations show a trend from a dryer state in the 1970s via an increase during the 1980s towards stabilization on wetter conditions commencing with the 1990s. (2) Increasing wetness in Southeast China is attributed to an abnormal anticyclone over south Japan, with northward transport of warm and humid air from the tropical Pacific to South China. (3) In mid-to-high latitudes the weakened southward flow of polar airmasses induces low-level warming over Eurasia due to stronger AO by warmer zonal temperature advection. This indicates that AO is attributed to the Southeast China precipitation increase influenced by circulation anomalies over the mid-to-high latitudes. (4) The abnormal moisture transport along the southwestern boundary of the abnormal anticyclone over south Japan is related to anomalous south-easterlies modulated by the SST anomalies over Western Pacific Ocean; a positive (negative) SST anomaly will strengthen (weaken) warm and humid air transport, leading to abundant (reduced) precipitation in Southeast China. That is both AO and SST anomalies determine the nonlinear trend observed in winter precipitation over Southeast China.     

Influence of the intraseasonal variability on heat waves in subtropical South America

The influence of the intraseasonal variability on heat wave development over subtropical South America during austral summer is analyzed. The role of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) on this development is documented. Results show that intraseasonal variability can explain on average at least 32% of summer temperature variance. Moreover, 73% of the heat waves in subtropical South America develop in association with an active SACZ. The analysis of pentad maps shows that warm conditions in the region under study develop in association with the strengthening of an anticyclonic anomaly, which is discernible over the subtropical regions at least 15?days before temperature peak occurrence. That circulation anomaly is embedded in a large-scale Rossby wave train extending along the South Pacific Ocean that is linked to convection anomalies at the equatorial western and central Pacific Ocean. In addition, the development of the anticyclonic circulation over subtropical South America appears to be strengthened by the subsidence conditions promoted by the active SACZ, which result in temperature rise in the subtropical region under relatively dry conditions. On the other hand, during the last 2?days of evolution, SACZ activity weakens and the progressive temperature rise in the region is dominated by warmer and moister air being anomalously advected from the north. Results confirm the important role that SACZ activity on intraseasonal time scales has in inducing persistent circulation anomalies at the subtropical regions that can result in the development of persistent heat waves, and very extreme daily temperature.