Hydrological appraisal of rainfall estimates from radar,satellite, raingauge and satellite–gauge combination on the Qinhuai River Basin,China

ABSTRACT

Multisource rainfall products can be used to overcome the absence of gauged precipitation data for hydrological applications. This study aims to evaluate rainfall estimates from the Chinese S-band weather radar (CINRAD-SA), operational raingauges, multiple satellites (CMORPH, ERA-Interim, GPM, TRMM-3B42RT) and the merged satellite–gauge rainfall products, CMORPH-GC, as inputs to a calibrated probability distribution model (PDM) on the Qinhuai River Basin in Nanjing, China. The Qinhuai is a middle-sized catchment with an area of 799 km². All sources used in this study are capable of recording rainfall at high spatial and temporal resolution (3 h). The discrepancies between satellite and radar data are analysed by statistical comparison with raingauge data. The streamflow simulation results from three flood events suggest that rainfall estimates using CMORPH-GC, TRMM-3B42RT and S-band radar are more accurate than those using the other rainfall sources. These findings indicate the potential to use satellite and radar data as alternatives to raingauge data in hydrological applications for ungauged or poorly gauged basins.     

Influence of natural rainfall variability on the evaluation of artificial precipitation enhancement

Evaluating cloud seeding effects is one of the most critical issues in artificial precipitation enhancement experiments. However, the evaluation is not straightforward because there is natural rainfall variability, which subjects the atmosphere to spatiotemporal instabilities. The aim of this study is to analyze natural rainfall variability using the modern statistical simulation method, "bootstrap", to analyze its influence on the evaluation of seeding activities and to take proper measures to control the influence. The study is based on the 1997?2007 airborne seeding macro records and the daily precipitation data in Jilin Province. The influence of natural rainfall variability can be reduced through three approaches: the increase of the supposed "seeded" sample size N, the rejection of outliers, and the selection of similar control units. A larger N leads to smaller calculated precipitation variability and detectable lower limits of seeding effects. When N is near 470 and the seeding effect is between 20% and 30%, the confidence level reaches 90%. For a single seeding operation, the case deletion model that rejects strong influence points and selects similar control units is established to control the influence of natural precipitation variability, which obviously improves the evaluation of artificial precipitation enhancement. The results demonstrate that the relative seeding effect in Jilin Province is concentrated mainly in the range of 0 to 30%, with an average of 11.95%, and has no significant linear relationship with the actual precipitation amount. However, the fluctuation amplitude of the relative effect decreases as the precipitation amount rises.     

Estimation of flow enhancement in the Kinneret watershed due to cloud seeding

A comparison is carried out between historical records of the flow measured in Kinneret watershed during and prior to the time of cloud seeding for rainfall enhancement. Precipitation series for the control area of the meteorological experimentation serve as a reference for the comparison. The fluctuations of the flow, which would have occurred unless the effect of the seeding, are estimated by a linear regression on the precipitation as the control. The regression parameters are calibrated separately for the unseeded and for the seeded time series. The model with the parameters calibrated for the unseeded series is applied on the rainfall recorded during the seeded time, and vice versa. The difference between the measured and the computed data is attributed to the effect of cloud seeding. Similar comparisons are carried out with respect to rainfall series recorded at the target area and at the edge of the enhanced area.The results indicate that the flow from the affected sector of the watershed has been enhanced, with respect to the control, by 31×10⁶ m ³/year, at a significance level of 31. This enhancement is 5% of the volume which is generated in that area. The rates found with respect to the rainfall at the edge are higher than those found with respect to the control, while those with respect to the rainfall at the center of the target area are lower.     

Estimation of flow enhancement in the Kinneret watershed due to cloud seeding

A comparison is carried out between historical records of the flow measured in Kinneret watershed during and prior to the time of cloud seeding for rainfall enhancement. Precipitation series for the control area of the meteorological experimentation serve as a reference for the comparison. The fluctuations of the flow, which would have occurred unless the effect of the seeding, are estimated by a linear regression on the precipitation as the control. The regression parameters are calibrated separately for the unseeded and for the seeded time series. The model with the parameters calibrated for the unseeded series is applied on the rainfall recorded during the seeded time, and vice versa. The difference between the measured and the computed data is attributed to the effect of cloud seeding. Similar comparisons are carried out with respect to rainfall series recorded at the target area and at the edge of the enhanced area.The results indicate that the flow from the affected sector of the watershed has been enhanced, with respect to the control, by 31×10⁶ m ³/year, at a significance level of 31. This enhancement is 5% of the volume which is generated in that area. The rates found with respect to the rainfall at the edge are higher than those found with respect to the control, while those with respect to the rainfall at the center of the target area are lower.     

Range resolution dependence of VHF radar returns from clear-air turbulence and precipitation

With employing 1.5 h of the data observed by the Chung-Li VHF radar, the range resolution dependences of the VHF backscatter from refractivity fluctuation and precipitation are investigated in this article. It indicates that the atmospheric layer structure of refractivity seems to play a role in governing the range resolution dependence of clear-air turbulent echoes. Observations shows that the VHF clear-air echo power ratios for 4 to 2 μs pulse lengths are close to 3 dB in the middle or bottom side of the layer, while the ratios are significantly greater than 3 dB in the top side of the layer. The analysis of the precipitation echo power ratio for 4 to 2 ms pulse lengths shows that basically the ratios above 3.0 km are close to 3 dB, but enormously smaller than 3 dB below 3.0 km. The feature of extraordinarily small echo power ratios below 3.0 km is also observed for the radar returns from refractivity turbulence. The radar recovery effect is thought to be a primary factor responsible for the severe diminution of the echo power ratios at the lower altitudes. In addition, statistical analysis reveals that the range resolution effect on the first and second moments of the Doppler spectra for the radar echoes from clear-air turbulence and precipitation is insignificant and negligible. The dependences of the coefficient A and power B in the power-law approximation V_t=AP^B_r to the terminal velocity V_t and range-corrected echo power P_r are examined theoretically and experimentally. The results show that the coefficient A (powers B) is inversely (positively) proportional to the range resolution, in a good agreement with the observations. Because of the strong dependence of coefficient A and power B on the radar pulse width, it suggests that great caution should be taken in comparing the power-law expressions V_t=AP^B_r established from the radar returns obtained with different range resolutions.     

Isotopic evidence for meteoric-hydrothermal alteration of plutonic igneous rocks in the Yakutat Bay and Skagway areas,Alaska

Oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios were measured on coexisting minerals from quartz diorites and quartz monzonites from a section across the Coast Range batholith in the Skagway area, Alaska, including a variety of outlying plutons west of the batholith in the Yakutat Bay-Mt. St. Elias region (latitudes 59–60°N). The extremely low and variable δ¹⁸Oand δD results indicate widespread meteoric-hydrothermal alternaiton of the Coast Range batholith, and to a lesser extent, of the Yakutat Bay plutons as well. In the Yakutat Bay area, the plutons with K—Ar ages younger than 50 m.y. have widely varying δD values of ?72 to ?148, compared to δD = ?69to?90 for all but one sample in the 50–225 m.y. age grouping (one biotite has δD = ?109). This suggests that the major meteoric-hydrothermal episodes in this area occurred during the Eocene and Miocene. This involved relatively small meteoric water/rock ratios(<0.1), as none of the δ¹⁸O values show any clear-cut evidence of alteration (δ¹⁸O_quartz= 7.4 ?11.8; δ¹⁸O_feldspar= 5.7?10.0). However, in the section across the Coast Range batholith, 85% of the plutonic rocks have very low δD values of ?100 to ?167, and the δ¹⁸O values are extremely variable δ¹⁸O_feldspar= + 10.3to?4.0 and Δ¹⁸O_{quartz-feldspar}= 0.4?10.5. These data indicate that a major portion of the batholith, particularly the quartz monzonite-rich eastern part, but also including many of the quartz diorite plutons as well, interacted with meteoric-hydrothermal convective systems that involved water/rock ratios of about 0.3–1.4. The quart diorite plutons are most depleted in¹⁸O near their northeast contacts against the younger quartz monzonite intrusions. The primary igneous δ¹⁸O values of the quartz diorites were apparently higher than those of the quartz monzonites; they are also unusually high in¹⁸O compared to most other analyzed quartz diorites, suggesting derivation from, exchange with, or assimilation of high-¹⁸O metasediments or altered volcanic rocks. These data and conclusions are very similar to those reached previously on a similar isotopic study of the Coast Range batholith in British Columbia, 700 km to the southeast at latitudes 54–55°N, except that in the Skagway area an even greater proportion of the batholith was apparently depleted in deuterium. This implies that deep (?5km?) circulation of meteoric groundwaters is probably a characteristic of the later stages of emplacement of the Cordilleran batholiths of western North America, suggesting that the eastern sections of these batholiths in particular were emplaced at relatively shallow depths.     

An overview and synthesis of plasma irregularities in equatorial spread F

A unified picture of plasma irregularities in equatorial spread F is developed from the analysis of satellite, sounding rocket, and coherent scatter radar observations. The coherent scatter data are analyzed using a new in-beam radar imaging technique that permits direct comparison between radar data, in situ data, and computer simulations of the irregularities. Three varieties of irregularities, all produced by ionospheric interchange instabilities, are found to occur. Thin bottom-type layers are composed of waves with primary transverse wavelengths less than about 1 km and with significant parallel wavenumbers. These exist on magnetic flux tubes controlled by the E region dynamo and drift westward in the postsunset ionosphere. A nonlocal analysis is used to calculate their linear growth rate. When the F region dynamo takes control of the flux tube, bottomside irregularities can emerge. These are more robust irregularities with longer primary wavelengths and which exhibit greater vertical development. Nonlinear analyses explain the appearance of steepened structures in rocket observations and solitary waves in satellite observations of bottomside layers. The one-dimensional spectra of these irregularities obey power laws but are anisotropic and have variable spectral indices and spectral breaks. Very strong polarization electric fields can eject large regions of deeply depleted plasma through the F peak and form topside irregularities. Theoretical calculations supported by satellite data show that ion inertia may become important for topside irregularities. The one-dimensional spectra of irregularities in the inertial regime obey a k^−5/3 power law, but strong plasma inhomogeneity implies that Kolmogorov weak turbulence is not the explanation. Topside depletions are shown to bifurcate and also to pinch off from the bottomside.     

Empirically-based modeling of spatial sampling uncertainties associated with rainfall measurements by rain gauges

In the quantitative evaluation of radar-rainfall products (maps), rain gauge data are generally used as a good approximation of the true ground rainfall. However, rain gauges provide accurate measurements for a specific location, while radar estimates represent areal averages. Because these sampling discrepancies could introduce noise into the comparisons between these two sensors, they need to be accounted for. In this study, the spatial sampling error is defined as the ratio between the measurements by a single rain gauge and the true areal rainfall, defined as the value obtained by averaging the measurements by an adequate number of gauges within a pixel. Using a non-parametric scheme, the authors characterize its full statistical distribution for several spatial (4, 16 and 36 km²) and temporal (15 min and hourly) scales.     

Developing machine learning-based snow depletion curves and analysing their sensitivity over complex mountainous areas

A snow depletion curve (SDC), the relationship between snow mass (e.g., snow depth [SD]) and fractional snow cover area (SCF), is essential to parameterize the effect of snowpack within a physically based snow model. Existing SDCs are constructed using traditional statistic methods may not be applicable in complex mountainous areas. In this study, we developed an information fusion framework to define the relationship between SCF and SD as well as 12 auxiliary factors by using a traditional statistical method and four prevailing machine learning (ML) algorithms, which have comprehensively considered the variable conditions that cause spatiotemporal heterogeneity of snow cover. We also performed a single-dimensional sensitivity analysis to investigate the physical rationality of the newly developed SDCs. The Northern Xinjiang, Northwest China, is selected as the study area, and the data from 46 meteorological stations covering five snow seasons from 2010 to 2015 are used. The results illustrated that ML techniques can be used to establish high-accuracy and robust SDCs for complex mountainous areas. Compared with SDCs constructed by traditional statistical, the performance of the four ML-based SDCs is significantly improved, the RMSE values can be reduced by 50%, R² above 0.75, and an average relative variance close to 0. ML-based SDCs predicted SCF values showed a range of sensitivities to different input variables (e.g., Land surface temperature, aspect, longwave radiation and land cover type), in addition to SD, that were physically representative of effects that snow cover is sensitive to. Moreover, the complexity of SDCs can be reduced by removing insensitive input variables.     

The design storm concept in flood control design and planning

The design storm approach, where the subject criterion variable is evaluated by using a synthetic storm pattern composed of identical return frequencies of storm pattern input, is shown to be an effective approximation to a considerably more complex probabilistic model. The single area unit hydrograph technique is shown to be an accurate mathematical model of a highly discretized catchment with linear routing for channel flow approximation, and effective rainfalls in subareas which are linear with respect to effective rainfall output for a selected “loss” function. The use of a simple “loss” function which directly equates to the distribution of rainfall depth-duration statistics (such as a constant fraction of rainfall, or a ?-index model) is shown to allow the pooling of data and thereby provide a higher level of statistical significance (in estimating T-year outputs for a hydrologic criterion variable) than use of an arbitrary “loss” function. The above design storm unit hydrograph approach is shown to provide the T-year estimate of a criterion variable when using rainfall data to estimate runoff.     

Effects of forest land management on erosion and revegetation after the eruption of Mount St. Helens

The 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens covered soils with a tephra blanket and killed the forest tree cover in a 550 km² area. After the eruption, rates of sheetwash and rill erosion, and plant cover were measured on tephra-covered hillslopes which had been subject to three land-management practices: grass seeding; scarification, and salvage logging. On rapidly-eroding hillslopes subject to grass seeding, limited plant covers were established only after erosion had declined sharply. Logging of trees downed by the eruption and scarification of previously logged surfaces slowed erosion, although the effect was small because erosion rates had already slowed substantially by the time these two practices were implemented. The factors controlling erosion, revegetation, and their relative timing at Mount St. Helens are similar to those following explosive volcanic eruptions elsewhere, suggesting that grass seeding is not likely to be effective at slowing erosion following most tephra eruptions, and that early mechanical disturbance could be an effective erosion-control measure. The results also indicate that even without deliberate conservation measures, processes which mechanically disturb a surface layer of low hydraulic conductivity (such as frost-action or trampling) can radically reduce runoff and erosion before revegetation has an important effect.     

The use of MRS in the determination of hydraulic transmissivity: The case of alluvial aquifers

Magnetic Resonance Sounding (MRS) is nowadays accepted as a new geophysical method that can be used for a reliable determination of the ground water content distribution in the top 150 m. A great effort has also been made in MRS development to deduce the hydraulic transmissivity, based on empiric relationships of the permeability with a factor F which is calculated with NMR parameters measured at laboratory scale. To use this relationship under field conditions a calibration coefficient C_T = T_pt / F has to be previously established, which demands the knowledge of the transmissivity T_pt evaluated in the pumping test. The transmissivity can then be calculated at any other site of the same aquifer using the relation T_mrs = C_TF. The C_T values reported suggest a certain relationship with the lithology, but with a great dispersion and contradictory results. MRS surveys carried out in alluvial aquifers in Spain have shown that the value of C_T evaluated at one site may not be valid at another place of the same aquifer, because of the great heterogeneity of this kind of geological environment. The demand of a pumping test at each site where a MRS is measured invalidates the method actually used for MRS transmissivity evaluation. More than 50 MRS have been used to propose a new methodology. The aquifers visited cover a great range of transmissivities (from 2 × 10^− 6 to 9 × 10^− 3 m²/s). The MRS signal amplitude varies between 20 and 1400 nV, the signal/noise ratio is in the range from 0.6 to 42, and the value of the decay time constant varies from 200 to 800 ms. It has been demonstrated that when the transmissivity increases, the value of F decreases, and C_T increases, except for certain groups of MRS taken at the same aquifer or part of one aquifer, for which F increases with T_pt, keeping C_T constant. A function C_T(F) of the type C_T = mF^− n has been obtained that allows the transmissivity evaluation without the need of T_pt. Considering that both values of transmissivity, T_pt and T_mrs, are subjected to deviations due to the experimental errors as well as due to evaluation errors, the prediction achieved by the proposed equation is rather good. To perform a better evaluation of the values of the coefficients m and n it is necessary to have a greater number of MR soundings of good quality and with a trustworthy inversion at locations where a really comparable and good performed pumping test is available, covering a sufficient range of transmissivities. Though the data we have used do not always fulfil these conditions, the result is promising. Once a trustable function is available, the forecast of the transmissivity using MRS will not need the existence of any pumping test in the area. The general extension of this methodology demands the availability of MRS taken at all kinds of geological and hydrogeological environments, which is impossible without the existence of a universal MRS data base.     

A biennial systematic test of some newly-developed cloud-seeding nucleants,under orographic conditions

Summary A systematic cloud-seeding experiment was conducted in the Prenestine Hills, east of Rome, during the period of time Jan. 1966 – June 1968. The objective was to determine whether the use of monodisperse, electron-emitting giant condensation nuclei, and of giant Al₂S₃ ice-forming nuclei, both recently developed in our laboratories, could increase the precipitation over an area circumjacent to the site of aerosol dispersion. The method of evaluation involved comparisons of precipitation fallen during the week which followed the aerosolization of about 15 kg. of particulate matter, to the precipitation collected during the fortnight aftet that period. The results show that despite a relatively small amount of nuclei used per seeding operation, and notwithstanding an apparently handicapped design of data evaluation, the normalized and cumulated ratios of precipitation events, associated with those periods of time, indicate significant increases during summer and autumn, and significant decreases during winter season, over the area considered.     

中尺度模拟土壤油污染区探地雷达探测效果分析

为使物理模拟实验效果与实际探测情形更为接近,在室外自然条件下建立中尺度土壤石油污染实验模型,油污染区扩展深度超过1 m,采用实地探测中常用的500 MHz雷达天线进行长期定时探测.通过实测雷达图像特征、土壤含水量含油量分析,并对比前人开展的小尺度室内模拟试验结果,综合评价探地雷达对油污染区的探测效果.研究表明探地雷达探测图像异常特征与污染区扩散阶段密切相关:包气带内油污染区会引起振幅增强;毛细带的油污染区则表现为水位面反射轴附近清晰可辨的高幅异常区,且水位面反射轴呈下凹状;随扩散过程持续进行,异常区下移与水位面反射轴相交,并产生水平扩张.当污染土含油饱和度大于20%时,可通过雷达图像异常区圈定污染范围;当污染土含油饱和度大于15%时,可通过频谱图出现低频响应的位置圈定污染区水平范围.中尺度实验结果与室内小尺度模拟结果具有一致性,可作为油污染区雷达图像异常的解译依据.     

The relationship between VHF radar auroral backscatter amplitude and Doppler velocity: a statistical study

A statistical investigation of the relationship between VHF radar auroral backscatter intensity and Doppler velocity has been undertaken with data collected from 8 years operation of the Wick site of the Sweden And Britain Radar-auroral Experiment (SABRE). The results indicate three different regimes within the statistical data set; firstly, for Doppler velocities <200 m s⁻¹, the backscatter intensity (measured in decibels) remains relatively constant. Secondly, a linear relationship is observed between the backscatter intensity (in decibels) and Doppler velocity for velocities between 200 m s⁻¹ and 700 m s⁻¹. At velocities greater than 700 m s⁻¹ the backscatter intensity saturates at a maximum value as the Doppler velocity increases. There are three possible geophysical mechanisms for the saturation in the backscatter intensity at high phase speeds: a saturation in the irregularity turbulence level, a maximisation of the scattering volume, and a modification of the local ambient electron density. There is also a difference in the dependence of the backscatter intensity on Doppler velocity for the flow towards and away from the radar. The results for flow towards the radar exhibit a consistent relationship between backscatter intensity and measured velocities throughout the solar cycle. For flow away from the radar, however, the relationship between backscatter intensity and Doppler velocity varies during the solar cycle. The geometry of the SABRE system ensures that flow towards the radar is predominantly associated with the eastward electrojet, and flow away is associated with the westward electrojet. The difference in the backscatter intensity variation as a function of Doppler velocity is attributed to asymmetries between the eastward and westward electrojets and the geophysical parameters controlling the backscatter amplitude.     

Narrower grid structure of artificial reef enhances initial survival of in situ settled coral

The initial factors that cause a decline in the survival of in situ settled corals remain poorly understood. In this study, we demonstrated through field experiments that the design of artificial grid plates may influence the initial survival of Acropora corals, with narrower grids being the most effective. In fact, grid plates with a 2.5-cm mesh presented the highest recorded survival rate (14%) at 6 months after settlement (representing approximately 50 corals per 0.25 m² of plate). This is the first study where such high survival rates, matching those of cultures under aquarium conditions, were obtained in the field without using additional protective measures, such as guard nets against fish grazing after seeding. Therefore, our results provide a foundation for establishing new and effective coral restoration techniques for larval seeding, in parallel to clarifying the details of the early life stages of reef-building corals.