赴英国里丁大学参加MATCH会议总结

2005年10月27～28日，模拟和评估气候变化贡献特别工作组MATCH在英国里丁大学召开了第6次巴西案文科学和方法学问题专家会议。作为MATCH专家组的成员之一，国家气候中心胡国权博士应邀参加了该次专家会议。     

参加第16次国际TOVS工作组研讨会（ITSC16）总结

2008年5月7～15日,国家卫星气象中心研究所马刚和陆其峰参加了在巴西AngradosReis举行的第16次国际TOVS工作组研讨会（ITSC16）。从北京出发,经法兰克福、圣保罗两次转机后抵达里约热内卢,又经180km公路行程,抵达ITSC16会议地点AngradosReis。     

AWG第四次会议在维也纳举行

《京都议定书》附件I国家缔约方进一步承诺特设工作组(AWG)第四次会议于2007年8月27-31日在奥地利首都维也纳举行。此次会议重点讨论附件I国家(工业化国家)在2012年之后的温室气体减排潜力与目标     

全球十大污染城市

据联合国最近发布的一项报告中称,目前全球只有百分之二十的城市居民呼吸空气达到可接受的标准,而约有18亿城市居民呼吸着含有过高二氧化硫的空气。空气中含有二氧化硫最高的城市是:意大利的米兰、伊朗的德黑兰、韩国的汉城、巴西的里约热内卢和圣保罗、法国的巴黎、西班牙的马德里、中国的北京、沈阳和西安。     

国际气候谈判背景下的国家温室气体排放清单编制

基于"共同但有区别的责任"原则,《联合国气候变化框架公约》对附件I和非附件I缔约方提交国家温室气体排放清单的要求不尽相同。2007年以来,发展中国家自主减缓行动透明度、以国家温室气候排放清单为核心的国家信息通报提交频率及其磋商分析问题成为气候谈判争论的焦点之一,发展中国家承担的相关义务有不断增加的趋势。通过阐述该公约对发达国家和发展中国家排放清单编制的不同要求,特别是通过对目前发达国家所接受的清单审评制度和我国国家温室气体排放清单编制情况的分析论述,明确我国国家清单编制所面临的挑战,并提出相应的对策建议。     

赴新西兰参加合作研究总结报告

经国家气候中心派遣，中国气象局国际合作司同意，本人于2004年9月26日赴新西兰，执行与新西兰在巴西案科学和方法学问题方面的合作研究计划，为期2个月，已圆满完成合作任务，按时于11月27日回到北京。     

基于GIS的巴西陆稻IAPAR-9种植气候区划研究

根据巴西陆稻IAPAR-9生长发育对气候条件的要求, 结合其在广西的多年引种试验结果, 分析确定了影响广西种植巴西陆稻的关键气候因子和气候区划指标, 采用GIS技术对区划指标进行小网格推算, 得出广西不同地理背景下1 km×1 km网格点上的有关气候要素值, 通过GIS的空间分析和多层复合方法, 对广西种植巴西陆稻进行气候区划, 并对区划结果评述和建议, 为广西发展巴西陆稻生产进行合理布局提供科学依据。     

《京都议定书》第二承诺期森林管理基准线分析

基于各附件I缔约方2011年提交的年度国家温室气体排放清单、《京都议定书》第一承诺期森林管理活动的温室气体源/汇数据,以及森林管理活动的基准线数据,分析了森林管理活动在第一承诺期履约中的贡献,以及按各方提交的基准线,预计森林管理活动在未来承诺期履约中的作用。结果表明,《京都议定书》第一承诺期的最初两年（2008—2009年）,附件I缔约方可从合格的森林管理活动中获得年均2.46亿t CO2当量（CO2-eq）的信用额,相当于相应缔约方基准年（1990年）源排放的2.3%,对减限排目标的贡献率达53%,不合理的规则使一些缔约方在履约中可过度地利用森林管理的汇清除。各附件I缔约方提交的2013—2020年森林管理活动的基准线（约2.52亿t CO2-eq/a的净汇清除）远低于目前和过去的水平,使其可从中获得的用于抵消减排目标的信用额约为第一承诺期的4倍,对未来承诺期履约的贡献率将更大,一些缔约方提交的减排目标中的大部分可通过森林管理活动的信用额来抵消。因此,本文建议在未来的谈判中,要严格控制可用的森林管理活动的信用额,避免森林管理活动被滥用。     

不同雨型的Z—I关系及几种误差讨论

本文根据湖南、安徽两地共437张雨滴谱资料做了以下几项工作: 1.分别按不同雨型、不同反射因子Z和雨强I值统计了它们的Z—I关系,结果表明按雨型统计的Z—I关系最合理。2.不同雨型的Z—I关系有显著性差异,不能互相代用。3.湖南、安徽两地对流性降水的Z—I关系无显著性差异,从而得到两地对流性降水中统一的Z—I关系式。4.分别对(1)不同雨型、不同地点或不同时间降雨的Z—I关系的性质;(2)雨滴谱取样间隔对统计Z—I关系的影响;(3)雷达上不同读数(或开机)时间间隔造成的测量误差进行了讨论。     

附件一缔约方/非附件一缔约方

1992年5月9日在纽约联合国总部通过了《联合国气候变化框架公约》（简称《公约》）,其最终目标是“将大气中温室气体的浓度稳定在防止气候系统受到危险的人为干扰的水平上”。目前已有191个国家加入《公约》,成为其缔约方。《公约》缔约方分为附件一缔约方和非附件一缔约方,分别承担不同的责任。     

Differentiating Future Commitments on the Basis of Countries’ Relative Historical Responsibility for Climate Change: Uncertainties in the ‘Brazilian Proposal’ in the Context of a Policy Implementation

During the negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol, Brazil proposed allocating the greenhouse gas emission reductions of Annex I Parties according to the relative effect of a country’s historical emissions on global temperature increase. This paper analyses the impact of scientific uncertainties and of different options in policy implementation (policy choices) on the contribution of countries’ historical emissions to indicators of historical responsibility for climate change. The influence of policy choices was found to be at least as large as the impact of the scientific uncertainties analysed here. Building on this, the paper then proceeds to explore the implications of applying the Brazilian Proposal as a climate regime for differentiation of future commitments on the global scale combined with an income threshold for participation of the non-Annex I regions. Under stringent climate targets, such a regime leads to high emission reductions for Annex I regions by 2050, in particular for Europe and Japan. The income threshold assumptions strongly affect the Annex I reductions, even more than the impact of another burden-sharing key. A variant of the Brazilian Proposal, allocating emission reductions on the basis of cumulative emissions since 1990, would lead to a more balanced distribution of emission reductions.     

Numerical Simulation Study on the Scientific and Methodological Aspects of the Brazilian Proposal

1. IntroductionObservations of surface air temperature indicatethat a significant global average warming has occurredduring the 20th century. The Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change (IPCC, 2001) concludes that thereis new and stronger evidence that man has influencedthe climate. International negotiations have led to afirst step in combating climate change with the UnitedNations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol, but further stepsare needed in …     

Introducing population-adjusted historical contributions to global warming

The 1997 Brazilian Proposal suggested that differentiated emissions reduction targets for Annex I parties of the UNFCCC should be based on the impact of their historic greenhouse gas emissions on global temperature rise. In this paper, we develop methodologies for (and undertake) population-adjusted historical responsibility calculations. These adjust national-level historical responsibility calculations for historical population trends. We find a weak correlation between current per capita emissions levels and population-adjusted historical responsibility. Our calculations may contribute to burden sharing schemes in future climate agreements.     

Values for a post-Kyoto discourse

Environmental policy, including the Kyoto Protocol, is laden with values. Recognizing this fact can help UNFCCC parties come to agreement. Much of the contention surrounding the post-Kyoto negotiations can be explained through a framework of values. This article summarizes the arguments used by proponents and critics of emissions trading of greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol through such a framework of values. Proponents and critics of emissions trading espouse common values, such as achievement, to work toward ameliorating climate change; there is less agreement on emissions trading seen through values such as responsibility and fairness. As non-Annex I parties are expected to take a more active role in the second commitment period, identifying values held by those working on their behalf will facilitate negotiations and help develop a discourse that is inclusive of their interests. Annex I parties can also benefit from the identification of the values to better convey their interests. All parties can use the values framework identified here to construct a more durable climate change regime.     

德国WBGU碳预算方案解析与中国社会科学院方案比较

在《联合国气候变化框架公约》第15次缔约方会议召开前夕,德国发布了一份旨在通过对未来排放空间进行管理以实现长期减排目标、构建全球低碳经济的国际气候制度设计方案。该方案的研究思路与中国社会科学院学者提出的碳预算方案基本一致,但是两种方案在参数选择、减排路径、历史责任计算等问题上存在较大分歧。虽然德国方案力图平衡南北双方在气候领域的不同利益诉求,但从结果上看,德国方案明显有利于发达国家集团,公平性不足,难以达到其方案设计效果。     

Historical and potential future contributions of power technologies to global warming

Using the mathematical formalism of the Brazilian Proposal to the IPCC, we analyse eight power technologies with regard to their past and potential future contributions to global warming. Taking into account detailed bottom-up technology characteristics we define the mitigation potential of each technology in terms of avoided temperature increase by comparing a “coal-only” reference scenario and an alternative low-carbon scenario. Future mitigation potentials are mainly determined by the magnitude of installed capacity and the temporal deployment profile. A general conclusion is that early technology deployment matters, at least within a period of 50–100?years. Our results conclusively show that avoided temperature increase is a better proxy for comparing technologies with regard to their impact on climate change, and that numerous short-term comparisons based on annual or even cumulative emissions may be misleading. Thus, our results support and extend the policy relevance of the Brazilian Proposal in the sense that not only comparisons between countries, but also comparisons between technologies could be undertaken on the basis of avoided temperature increase rather than on the basis of annual emissions as is practiced today.     

Post-Kyoto greenhouse gas inventories: production versus consumption

For the long-term stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations it is important that post-Kyoto policy has broad participation to ensure environmental integrity. Many post-Kyoto frameworks have been debated, but surprisingly approaches that focus on consumption have received little attention in the climate change literature despite broader interest in other areas. In this article we extend the argument for constructing GHG inventories using a country’s consumption rather than production. First, we argue that constructing GHG inventories using a country’s economic activity instead of geographic territory solves allocation issues for international activities such as international transportation and carbon capture and storage. Second, we argue that consumption-based GHG inventories have many advantages over production-based inventories. The main advantages are to address carbon leakage, reduce the importance of emission commitments for developing countries, increase options for mitigation, encourage environmental comparative advantage, address competitiveness concerns, and naturally encourage technology diffusion.     

Management Under Anarchy: The International Politics of Climate Change

This article analyzes climate change from the perspective of international politics. In the anarchy of the international system, various cooperation problems have stalled the formation of an effective climate regime at the international level. Obstacles occur at three stages of regime formation: the bargaining stage, the transition stage, and the implementation stage. The importance of the transition stage of cooperation, which takes place between the signing of an agreement and its entry into force, has been overlooked by international relations scholars and is particularly important in the climate case. The article assesses the possibility of applying `adaptive management' principles to climate change as a partial response to these political obstacles. While such an approach has significant appeal given the uncertainty surrounding the human-climate interface, its experimental, top-down characteristics are not politically feasible at the international level. I recommend certain modifications of existing institutions and practices to improve international information sharing and facilitate efficient learning. These changes would serve to promote a decentralized and passive – and thus politically viable – version of adaptive management, an effective approach to dealing with climate change at the global level.     

斯特恩报告及其对后京都谈判的可能影响

 2006年10月正式发布的斯特恩报告在国际社会引起了广泛反响。文章概述和分析了该报告出台的国际背景、主要特点和关键结论,综合评述了包括各国政府、学术界、企业界及环境非政府组织等各方对该报告的不同观点,研究探讨了斯特恩报告对后京都谈判的可能影响。该报告尽管肯定了中国气候变化政策的积极贡献,但其提出的排放情景和基于市场的政策处方并不能满足中国等发展中国家的发展需求,也忽视了资金来源、技术转让、适应等重要问题。     

Institutional interaction to address greenhouse gas emissions from international transport: ICAO, IMO and the Kyoto Protocol

In response to Article 2.2 of the Kyoto Protocol, the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) and the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) have begun to consider greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from international aviation and shipping. However, neither ICAO nor IMO have taken any effective action on the issue yet and progress can be characterised as slow. The lack of action has so far not been made up for by measures within the climate change regime or by individual countries. An important motivation for the efforts of ICAO and IMO so far has been the potential regulatory competition with the climate change regime. However, given the lack of political will to act on the issue within the latter, this motivation has not been very forceful. Against this backdrop, I argue that there are in particular three options for furthering progress within ICAO and IMO, namely (1) enhancing the threat of regulation of GHG emissions from international transport under the climate change regime; (2) undertaking unilateral domestic action by various countries (in particular the EU); and (3) furthering a learning process within ICAO and IMO. Furthermore, a closer coordination of efforts under ICAO, IMO and the climate change regime could facilitate and accelerate progress.