南昌市居民幸福评价及影响因素研究

对南昌市居民幸福感问卷调查数据进行因子分析,探究出影响居民幸福感的潜在因素.通过结构方程模型定量分析了影响居民幸福各因素之间的关系,并建立指标体系评价了南昌市居民幸福的总体情况.研究发现：影响南昌市居民幸福感的潜在变量主要包括自然环境、社会环境、名利状况和身心健康,自然环境与社会环境的关联度最大,其次是名利状况对身心健康的影响.从幸福评价结果中可以看出,影响因子指数最低的是名利状况,而身心健康指数最高.对南昌市而言,经济需要进一步发展,政府应该为居民提供更多的社会保障.     

漫谈气象计量

前一段时间出差,偶尔谈起天气,一个朋友说：“现在的天气预报还真准,给我们的生活、出行带来了很大的方便。”听到这话,我嘴上虽然谦虚了一番,     

基于FloodArea模型的成都主城区内涝风险评估

本文以成都主城区为例,运用气象数据、地理信息数据、社会经济统计数据及内涝灾情资料,通过多种常用分布函数的对比,选出重现期降水估算的最优函数,采用Pilgrim & Cordery法推求研究区的小时雨型,然后结合改进的基于FloodArea内涝模型,开展了24 h历时20、30、50、100 a一遇降水情景内涝模拟,并利用修订的内涝公路风险等级标准和财产损失曲线,探讨100 a一遇降水情景下内涝交通风险等级和居民室内财产损失风险。结果表明：①GEV（Generalized Extreme Value Distribution）分布函数是成都主城区重现期降水估算的最优函数;主城区24 h历时小时雨型呈双峰型, 且峰值出现在降水过程前部。②基于FloodArea模型,通过对输入数据或参数的改进,能够较好模拟城市内涝空间分布;各降水情景模拟结果显示高新南区、高新西区、青羊区内涝淹没范围占比相较其他地区偏高。③24 h历时100 a一遇降水情景内涝可造成成都主城区86.1%公路长度占比出行困难,其中一级风险公路长度占比为105%,二、三级风险公路长度占比分别为27.5%、28.4%,成华区内涝公路风险最高。④24 h历时100 a一遇降水情景内涝可造成居民室内财产潜在损失约占主城区GDP（Gross Domestic Product）的0.8%,其中武侯区财产损失风险最大,潜在损失占其GDP的1.6%。     

新一代全球卫星观测系统(EOS)概述

1　引言众所周知 ,因自然因子和作用所引起的变化在地球 4 5亿年的历史长河中只是一个常数。地球轨道效应、地质作用、生物过程和反馈系统 (由能量、质量和动量间非线性动力变化驱动 )以通量形式不断维持着地球气候。有时这些自然气候变化会对人类产生反作用 ,如果想较好地了解和预计它们的开始 ,使其更接近科学事实 ,并设法减轻其对人类生活环境的影响 ,就应该对这些反作用进行深入而细致的研究。近在公元 1 40 0年 ,小冰期平均温度在两个世纪期内约降低了 1 5℃ ,这使欧洲居民放弃了在格陵兰的居住。而在上个世纪 ,我们已经看到全球温…     

含变时滞输入的挠性航天器姿态复合控制

对含变时滞输入的挠性航天器姿态复合控制问题进行了研究,主要是通过设计一个时滞依赖的H_∞控制和干扰观测器（DOBC）相结合的复合分层控制结构,实现姿态角和姿态角速度的稳定控制.本文所提方法的优势为：1）对振动引起的干扰进行精确补偿,减少了干扰对控制效果的影响;2）设计了时滞依赖的状态控制器,降低了时滞对姿态的影响;3）在泛函求解过程中引入了时滞积分不等式分解系数,从而降低了设计的保守性.最后,通过数值仿真验证了本文设计的控制方法的有效性,并分析了时滞量及时滞积分不等式分解系数对闭环系统性能的影响.     

海宁县硖石镇夏末秋初绿化小气候效应的初步观测

随着城镇建设的不断发展,由于工厂排放出烟雾层的温室效应,以及建筑物和硬化地面等热容量小的缘故,在城镇中心形成所谓“热岛”,引起小气候环境的日益恶化。而城镇绿化不仅可以通过改造其下垫面状况来改善城镇小气候环境,同时还能美化环境、净化空气、减少噪音,为城镇居民创造良好的工作和生活环境。迄今,国内外已进行了不少城市夏季绿化小气候效应的研究,但对于小城镇夏末秋初绿     

我国留学生人数的预测及其对居民消费的影响

采用1985-2012年数据,利用时间序列分析方法,建立了刻画我国出国留学人数变动的模型ARIMA（2,2,2）,得到较好的预测效果.同时研究了出国留学人数与我国城镇居民人均消费性支出之间的关系,建立了相应的模型,并进行了Granger 因果关系检验.结果表明：出国留学生数的对数每增加1%,城镇居民人均消费性支出的对数将增加近0.06%.     

碳普惠制下市民乘坐地铁出行减碳量核算方法研究——以广州为例

碳普惠制是一种以城市居民为主体的温室气体自愿减排机制。将乘坐地铁出行作为低碳行为纳入碳普惠制,是建设全民参与型低碳社会的重要探索。本文提出了替代法和均值法两种市民乘坐地铁出行减碳量的核算方法,并以广州市为例,计算了2015年广州市民乘坐地铁出行的减碳量。结果显示：替代法下广州市民乘坐地铁出行的减碳量约为0.5419 kg CO₂/人次,均值法下约为0.5155 kg CO₂/人次,如果按2015年广州市地铁系统的客运量计算,替代法和均值法下全市地铁系统的年减碳量分别约为130万t CO₂和124万t CO₂。其中,替代法主要参考已有的CCER方法学设计,具有一定的理论基础,但其替代出行模式的确定受被调查对象的主观影响较大,而均值法以城市现有的机动化出行模式为基准线,较少受到人为因素的干扰,均值法被认为更适合于计算碳普惠制下市民乘坐地铁出行的碳减排量。     

山区居民对气候变化及其影响与适应的感知分析——以玉龙雪山地区为例

通过问卷调查和访谈,揭示了青藏高原东南缘玉龙雪山地区居民对当地气候变化及其影响与适应的感知认识。结果表明：居民对玉龙雪山地区气候变化的感知强度与科学研究结果总体上具有很高的一致性。居民对气候变化对农业环境影响的感知不很强烈,认为气候变化并未影响到农作物长势和产量,但对气候变化导致农作物病虫害略有增加和作物生长期延长的感知却持较高赞同度。居民对气候变化及其适应的感知强度总体上与海拔高度相关显著,而对气候变化及其影响的感知则与年龄显著相关。气候变化已促使山区居民调整产业结构,发展低耗水农业经济,并积极参与山区旅游、外出打工,以弥补微薄的农业收入。同时,居民也期望政府能够给予他们一定的经济补偿,以弥补由于干旱和倒春寒等带来的经济损失。     

面向公众出行的公路交通气象服务系统

从公众公路出行前的气象服务需求出发,研究公路交通气象服务的思路和技术方法,开展公路交通监测、预报与预警气象服务。研究建立公路交通气象观测网组网原则及站点选择规则,开展基于混合空间分析技术的道路反演、路径分析等关键技术研究,综合利用能见度、天气、风3种高影响气象要素建立公路通行气象条件模型,研发实况、预报、预警3大类6种气象服务产品,为用户提供直观、有效的气象服务信息。研发的公路交通气象服务系统于春运期间通过中国天气网交通频道正式对外服务,有效促进了公众用户的便捷、安全出行。     

A Backward-Lagrangian-Stochastic Footprint Model for the Urban Environment

Built terrains, with their complexity in morphology, high heterogeneity, and anthropogenic impact, impose substantial challenges in Earth-system modelling. In particular, estimation of the source areas and footprints of atmospheric measurements in cities requires realistic representation of the landscape characteristics and flow physics in urban areas, but has hitherto been heavily reliant on large-eddy simulations. In this study, we developed physical parametrization schemes for estimating urban footprints based on the backward-Lagrangian-stochastic algorithm, with the built environment represented by street canyons. The vertical profile of mean streamwise velocity is parametrized for the urban canopy and boundary layer. Flux footprints estimated by the proposed model show reasonable agreement with analytical predictions over flat surfaces without roughness elements, and with experimental observations over sparse plant canopies. Furthermore, comparisons of canyon flow and turbulence profiles and the subsequent footprints were made between the proposed model and large-eddy simulation data. The results suggest that the parametrized canyon wind and turbulence statistics, based on the simple similarity theory used, need to be further improved to yield more realistic urban footprint modelling.     

The climate change mitigation impacts of active travel: Evidence from a longitudinal panel study in seven European cities

Active travel (walking or cycling for transport) is considered the most sustainable and low carbon form of getting from A to B. Yet the net effects of changes in active travel on changes in mobility-related CO₂ emissions are complex and under-researched. Here we collected longitudinal data on daily travel behavior, journey purpose, as well as personal and geospatial characteristics in seven European cities and derived mobility-related lifecycle CO₂ emissions over time and space. Statistical modelling of longitudinal panel (n = 1849) data was performed to assess how changes in active travel, the ‘main mode’ of daily travel, and cycling frequency influenced changes in mobility-related lifecycle CO₂ emissions.We found that changes in active travel have significant lifecycle carbon emissions benefits, even in European urban contexts with already high walking and cycling shares. An increase in cycling or walking consistently and independently decreased mobility-related lifecycle CO₂ emissions, suggesting that active travel substituted for motorized travel – i.e. the increase was not just additional (induced) travel over and above motorized travel. To illustrate this, an average person cycling 1 trip/day more and driving 1 trip/day less for 200 days a year would decrease mobility-related lifecycle CO₂ emissions by about 0.5 tonnes over a year, representing a substantial share of average per capita CO₂ emissions from transport. The largest benefits from shifts from car to active travel were for business purposes, followed by social and recreational trips, and commuting to work or place of education. Changes to commuting emissions were more pronounced for those who were younger, lived closer to work and further to a public transport station.Even if not all car trips could be substituted by active travel the potential for decreasing emissions is considerable and significant. The study gives policy and practice the empirical evidence needed to assess climate change mitigation impacts of urban transport measures and interventions aimed at mode shift to more sustainable modes of transport. Investing in and promoting active travel whilst ‘demoting’ private car ownership and use should be a cornerstone of strategies to meet ‘net zero’ carbon targets, particularly in urban areas, while also reducing inequalities and improving public health and quality of urban life in a post-COVID-19 world.     

The scale and drivers of carbon footprints in households,cities and regions across India

The carbon footprint (CF) has emerged as an important yardstick to understand the total contribution of countries, sectors and individuals to climate change. In contrast to conventional emissions accounting which captures only territorial or local production activities, the CF includes the emissions imposed by consumption across global supply chains for goods and services. Recent interest has grown in the application of CF assessment for municipalities owing to their large contribution to global carbon emissions and the limited coverage of existing data to monitor their climate pledges. By linking household-level consumer surveys to a global supply chain database, spatially-explicit CF assessment is possible at a district and household scale. To date, such technique has exposed otherwise unforeseen differences in consumer carbon footprints in developed countries. Within this study we calculate and compare the household carbon footprints 623 districts in India, based on micro consumption data from 203,313 households and explain their variation by economic, cultural and demographic factors. We show the eradication of extreme poverty does not conflict with ambitious climate change mitigation in India. However, our analysis suggests CF reduction policies within India need to target high-expenditure households which are responsible for nearly seven times the carbon emissions than low-expenditure households (living on $1.9 consumption a day). These vast disparities between the carbon footprint of citizens in India highlights the need to differentiate individual responsibilities for climate change in national and global climate policy.     

Controlling GHG emissions from the transportation sector through an ETS: institutional arrangements in Shenzhen,China

Many different approaches are needed to achieve reductions in GHG emissions from the transportation sector. Carbon emissions trading schemes (ETSs) are widely used in industry and are effective in reducing the overall social cost of emissions abatement. This article reports the development of a downstream ETS for the transportation sector and its application in Shenzhen, China. The ETS was devised as a mandatory cap-and-trade scheme and, as a first step, was applied to public transportation. An integrated cap was set on the total emissions from buses and taxis: an absolute cap for existing vehicles and a relative increment for new entrants. Allowances were allocated by grandfathering or benchmarking and a ‘reverse mechanism’ was established to encourage the transformation of urban transportation to a low-carbon system. Online fuel consumption monitoring was used to quantify the emissions from vehicles, and the operators were required to surrender enough allowances or credits to account for their verified annual emissions. The mechanisms for allowance trading and carbon offsets provided sufficient flexibility to make emissions abatement and the use of new-energy vehicles and environmentally friendly travel within Shenzhen's urban transportation system economically attractive.

Policy relevance

The transportation sector is becoming a major contributor to the growth in China's GHG emissions. Achieving large reductions in GHG emissions from the transportation sector is a great challenge and requires both technology and policy innovation. The tradable carbon permit is a popular concept in mitigating climate change, but the introduction of a cap-and-trade ETS into the transportation sector is a relatively innovative concept. Shenzhen has launched the first cap-and-trade ETS in a developing country and is currently exploring ways to mitigate carbon emissions by a downstream cap-and-trade ETS for the transportation sector. This article considers the main institutional arrangements and regulatory framework of Shenzhen's transportation carbon ETS. It not only refreshes the theoretical analysis and practical application of downstream cap-and-trade carbon emissions trading in urban transportation, but also provides developing countries with a cost-effective instrument to mitigate their rapid growth in traffic carbon emissions during urbanization.     

基于卫星数据提取南宁城市扩张信息及驱动力研究分析

利用Landsat-TM陆地卫星数据进行南宁城市扩展及其土地利用动态变化的研究(1990年9月16日TM图像和2000年12月24日ETM 图像).通过统计及相关分析选取合适波段;取南宁市2时相TM和ETM 的NDVI差值,采用TM和ETM 遥感图像对研究区进行土地分类,研究南宁市土地利用变化状况,分析各类土地利用面积动态变化矩阵.结果表明:10a间南宁城镇范围向其周围呈辐射状迅速扩大,且向各方向扩展的程度基本接近;最大的地物转换类型是旱地转化为城市交通用地,为27.62%,其次为城镇用地及交通用地的转换;并讨论了城市化与降水之间的可能关系城市扩展,道路面积增加可能导致城市降水减少.分析了城市扩展的驱动力,包括了人口增长,经济迅速发展,发展旅游以及交通建设等都是主要因素.     

Applying personal carbon trading: a proposed ‘Carbon,Health and Savings System’ for British Columbia,Canada

Addressing climate change requires the synergy of technological, behavioural and market mechanisms. This article proposes a policy framework that integrates the three, deploying personal carbon trading as a key element within a policy portfolio to reduce personal carbon footprints. It draws on policy and human motivation literatures that address the behavioural changes that may be needed in the context of a long-term threat such as climate change. This proposal builds on an analysis of the British Columbia carbon tax, international examples of carbon pricing instruments and strategies for behavioural change such as social networks, loyalty management, mobile apps and gamification. Interviews were conducted with experts in financial services, energy conservation and clean technology, as well as with specialists in climate, health and taxation policy. Their input, together with a review of the theoretical literature and practical case studies, informed the proposed design of a Carbon, Health and Saving System for promoting individual engagement and collective action by linking long-term climate mitigation measures with short-term personal and social goals, including health, recreation and social reinforcement.

Policy Relevance

This article identifies areas for climate policy innovation and recommends policies that can support, promote and enable personal carbon budgeting and collective action. Although this study is focused on British Columbia, both the input provided by key opinion leaders and the proposed framework are applicable to other jurisdictions.

This policy proposal shows how personal carbon trading could work in the context of a Canadian province with an existing climate mitigation policy. It also specifies a minimum viable product approach to establishing the economic, social and technological foundations for personal carbon trading.

The Carbon, Health and Saving System identifies the technologies and stakeholders needed to implement personal carbon trading, and offers the possibility of motivating a widespread conscious human response in the event that carbon taxation proves insufficient to generate economic adaptation in a changing climate.     

Might electricity consumption cause urbanization instead? Evidence from heterogeneous panel long-run causality tests

The share of a population living in urban areas, or urbanization, is both an important demographic, socio-economic phenomenon and a popular explanatory variable in macro-level models of energy and electricity consumption and their resulting carbon emissions. Indeed, there is a substantial, growing subset of the global modeling literature that seeks to link urbanization with energy and electricity consumption, as well as with carbon emissions. This paper aims to inform both modelers and model consumers about the appropriateness of establishing such a link by examining the nature of long-run causality between electricity consumption and urbanization using heterogeneous panel methods and data from 105 countries spanning 1971–2009. In addition, the analysis of the time series properties of urbanization has implications both for modelers and for understanding the urbanization phenomenon. We consider total, industrial, and residential aggregations of electricity consumption per capita, three income-based panels, and three geography-based panels for non-OECD countries. The panel unit root, cointegration, and causality tests used account for cross-sectional dependence, nonstationarity, and heterogeneity – all of which are present in the data set. We cannot reject pervasively Granger causality in the urbanization to electricity consumption direction. However, the causality finding that is both the strongest and most similar across the various panels is that of long-run Granger causality from electricity consumption to urbanization. In other words, the employment and quality of life opportunities that access to electricity afford likely encourage migration to cities, and thus, cause urbanization. Also, nearly all countries’ urbanization series contained structural breaks, and the most recent post-break annual change rates suggested that nearly all countries’ rates of urbanization change were slowing. Lastly, future modeling work on energy consumption or carbon emissions should consider subnational scales of analysis, and focus on measures of urban density or urban form rather than national urbanization levels.     

数字赋能与城市碳排放——基于下一代互联网示范城市的准自然试验

研究基于2009—2017年中国268个地级市面板数据,将下一代互联网示范城市政策视为准自然实验,利用双重差分模型（DID）实证检验了下一代互联网示范城市政策对城市碳排放的影响。结果表明：下一代互联网示范城市政策对城市碳排放具有缓解作用,可使城市碳排放减少1.41%,该结论在经过稳健性检验后依然成立;在机制分析中得出,下一代互联网示范城市政策主要通过产业结构优化和绿色技术创新的方式缓解城市碳排放;进一步异质性检验表明,下一代互联网示范城市的建设对大型城市和高碳排放量城市的减排效果更加显著,对中小型城市则表现出加剧碳排放的现象。     

Reproduction and the carbon legacies of individuals

Much attention has been paid to the ways that people’s home energy use, travel, food choices and other routine activities affect their emissions of carbon dioxide and, ultimately, their contributions to global warming. However, the reproductive choices of an individual are rarely incorporated into calculations of his personal impact on the environment. Here we estimate the extra emissions of fossil carbon dioxide that an average individual causes when he or she chooses to have children. The summed emissions of a person’s descendants, weighted by their relatedness to him, may far exceed the lifetime emissions produced by the original parent. Under current conditions in the United States, for example, each child adds about 9441 metric tons of carbon dioxide to the carbon legacy of an average female, which is 5.7 times her lifetime emissions. A person’s reproductive choices must be considered along with his day-to-day activities when assessing his ultimate impact on the global environment.