The use of interplanetary scintillation maps in the prediction of geomagnetic activity

Interplanetary scintillation (IPS), the twinkling of small angular diameter radio sources, arises from the interaction of the signal with small-scale plasma irregularities in the solar wind. The technique may be used to sense remotely the near-Earth heliosphere and has potential for tracking large-scale interplanetary disturbances from close to the Sun to the Earth. Such observations might be useful within routine geomagnetic forecasts, and we use data from the Mullard Radio Astronomy Observatory to test this suggestion. A forecast was based on the visual evaluation of each daily map. If an IPS event was observed then we proposed that any associated geomagnetic activity would occur either on that day, or during the following two days. We consider the success of these forecasts in predicting days when either an SSC/SI or an Ap value exceeding 30 were recorded. The identification of IPS events is necessarily subjective and so two observers compiled independent events lists, and the results were compared. Approximately half of the IPS events in each list were followed by a geomagnetic signature but comparison of the two lists showed that different days were being chosen. We also found that the forecasts had very high false alarm rates. Since IPS is sensitive to a volume we did not expect all events to be associated with a geomagnetic signature. However, the technique failed to forecast a large proportion of geomagnetic events and the association between IPS events and geomagnetic activity is not much better than would be expected by chance. Comparing the IPS forecasts with forecasts of Ap released by the Space Environment Services Center (SESC) we found that SESC correctly predicted a similar proportion of days when Ap\geq30, but that the performance was significantly better than would be expected by chance, and had a much lower false alarm rate. We conclude that these IPS data cannot be used alone to produce reliable geomagnetic activity forecasts.     

Chaotic behaviour of interplanetary magnetic field under various geomagnetic conditions

In the present study, the deterministic chaotic behaviour of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) under various geomagnetic conditions of low and high solar active periods was analyzed, using the time series of IMF |B| and B_z, by employing chaotic quantifiers like, Lyapunov exponent, Tsallis entropy, correlation dimension, and non-linear prediction error. We have investigated whether the chaotic behaviour of interplanetary magnetic field would modify, when it produces major geomagnetic storms, and how it depends on the phase of solar activity. The yearly average values of Lyapunov exponent for the time series of IMF |B| and B_z, show solar flux dependence, whereas those values of entropy, correlation dimension and non-linear prediction error had no significant solar flux dependence. The yearly average values of entropy for quiet periods are higher compared to those values for major storm periods belonging to low/high solar active conditions, for both the time series |B| and B_z.     

The effect of interplanetary parameters as observed in geomagnetic storms in dependence on geomagnetic latitude

Summary The purpose of this study was to determine to what extent the effect of interplanetary parameters is reflected in the separate storms in dependence on geomagnetic latitude. The results were obtained by studying 5 storms of February 1967 and 1968 recorded at 6 observatories between latitude 5.7° and 53.5° with small differences in local time. These results concern the dynamic pressure of the solar wind and the function of the interplanetary electric field, which approximates the plasma injection into the ring current. This is also associated with the decay time of the storm ring. In most cases the dependence of the effect of the investigated parameters on latitude was proved and expressed in terms of quantitative relations with a reasonable degree of correlation. The derived constants were used in a model of time variations of the storm-time geomagnetic field. The storm-time variations, constructed using this model, mostly agree, as regards their main features, with the real variations, whereas differences can be observed in details, namely of a local nature.

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On the possibility of long-range forecasts of geomagnetic activity

Summary The relation between geomagnetic activity and solar activity is studied in long intervals and in individual 11-year cycles, characterized by certain basic parameters, in connection with investigating the prognostic significance of long-term fluctuations of geomagnetic activity [1, 2]. A number of properties as well as sufficiently close relations with a prognostic significance have been found, such as the secular variation of geomagnetic activity, the 22-year cycle of change in the form of the behaviour of geomagnetic activity in 11-year cycles, long-term concurrence of solar and geomagnetic activity and its changes within the 11-year cycle, relations between solar and geomagnetic parameters characterizing the 11-year cycle.

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a auu uu u ¶rt; uaum amum ¶rt;u nma u u m¶rt; 11-mu ua am mu ¶rt; ¶rt;m nuauaum amumu.

     

Measurements of the direction of the solar wind using interplanetary scintillation

EISCAT observations of the interplanetary scintillation of a single source were made over an extended period of time, during which the orientation of the baselines between the two observing sites changed significantly. Assuming that maximum correlation between the scintillations observed at the two sites occurs when the projected baseline is parallel to the direction of plasma flow, this technique can be used to make a unique determination of the direction of the solar wind. In the past it has usually been assumed that the plasma flow is radial, but measurements of eleven sources using this technique have indicated conclusively that in at least six cases observed at mid or high heliocentric latitude there is a significant non-radial component directed in four cases towards the heliocentric equator and in two cases towards the pole.     

Effect of the interplanetary secondary rarefaction waves on the geomagnetic field

Based on the WIND and GOES satellite data on the solar wind and IMF parameters and the data on the surface magnetic field, it has been indicated that the secondary MHD rarefaction wave can affect the geomagnetic field during a storm sudden commencement (SSC) event. The secondary rarefaction wave originates in the magnetosheath when the shock wave interacts with the Earth’s magnetosphere.     

特大地磁暴的一种行星际源:多重磁云

2001年3月31日观测到的大的多重磁云(Multi MC)事件造成了第23周太阳峰年(2000～2001)最大的地磁暴(Dst=-387nT). 通过分析ACE飞船的观测数据, 描述了这个多重磁云在1AU处的磁场和等离子体特征. 并且根据SOHO和GOES卫星的观测资料, 认证了它的太阳源. 在这次事件中, 由于多重磁云内部异常增强的南向磁场, 使之地磁效应变得更强, 它大大的延长了地磁暴的持续时间. 观测结果与理论分析表明, 多重磁云中子磁云的相互挤压使磁云内的磁场强度及其南向分量增强数倍, 从而加强了地磁效应. 因此, 研究认为多重磁云中子磁云之间的相互压缩是造成特大地磁暴的一种机制. 此外, 研究发现形成多重磁云的日冕物质抛射(CMEs)并不一定要来自同一太阳活动区.     

Parameters of the near-earth interplanetary medium under quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions

The distributions of the parameters of the solar wind, IMF, and physical fields (E _y component of the SW electric field, compression field DCF) and the rms errors (σ) of measurements, depending on the daily characteristic of geomagnetic disturbance (Cp), are considered. The scatter of parameters in the interplanetary medium (IM) is actually considerable even during a long interval of geomagnetic quiet. It has been indicated that an unambiguous correspondence between the IM parameters and the characteristic of geomagnetic activity on the Earth is absent, and we have only tendencies toward an increase (decrease) in the parameter of the near-Earth medium (physical quantity) with increasing geomagnetic activity. These tendencies are transformed into linear relationships only after the three-fold averaging of values (hourly, daily, annual), which corresponds to numerous equations of relation between IM parameters and different geomagnetic indices, obtained by many researchers based on statistical analyses.     

地磁活动指数的过去、现在和未来

地磁活动性是范围广、分量多、种类繁、形态异、频谱宽、原因复杂的时变过程.面对如此复杂的地磁活动性,除了分门别类逐一进行深入研究之外,根据实测资料,用简便易行的分类和简单明了的指标,对地磁活动性进行总体检阅和形态学描述也是非常必要的.于是,各种地磁活动指数应运而生.地磁指数不仅是表征地磁活动现象的重要参数,其应用范围逐渐扩展到日地能量耦合计算、电离层一磁层一太阳风空问环境状态描述、空间环境监测、空间天气预报等许多相关领域."地磁活动指数化"的思想正在向别的领域扩展,其构建原理和量算方法也在不断改进和完善.本文将现有的约50种地磁活动指数分两大类型,综述其提出背景和发展过程,分析其使用范围和优缺点,探讨地磁活动指数未来发展的趋势.     

Geomagnetic latitude aspects of the effect of the interplanetary parameters on geomagnetic storms

Summary In this work the previous author's results concerning the geomagnetic effect of the interplanetary parameters in dependence on geomagnetic latitude are verified, complemented and presented with better accuracy. Data of 7 intensive storms recorded in 1973–79 at 5 observatories with slight differences in local time and with the appropriate latitude distribution limited by real possibilities have been analysed. Even in these cases the derived values of the constants determining the dependence of storm-time variations of the geomagnetic field upon both the dynamic pressure of the solar wind(P) and the interplanetary electric field(E_y) vary relatively regularly with geomagnetic latitude. The anomaly of Dst and DR-variations from the Almeria Observatory (AE) evident in some intensive storms is pointed out here. Unlike the previous work the time characteristics () of the ring current decay have been studied from the standpoint of the main (_m) and recovery (_r) phases of the storm. This yields higher values of _r as compared to from the above mentioned work. On the other hand, a large decrease in the values of _r was observed in some cases at a latitude of about 40°, as in the earlier study. Actually this phenomenon does not occur in all intensive storms as could be expected. As to the investigated storms, _m seems to be independent of geomagnetic latitude and much lower in its magnitude than _r.     

Effect of the ns component of the interplanetary magnetic field on geomagnetic storms

Summary The individual storm-time variations of the geomagnetic field were compared with the variations of the B_z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field over 24 and 48-hour intervals of storm time. Good correlation between B_z and Dst was observed in about one half of the 166 cases analysed (1965–72), the time lag of the manifestations of the interplanetary field at the Earth's surface having been taken into account. The effect of the B_z-field is reflected to a considerably larger extent in intense storms (Dst –80 nT). Good correlation was observed in 80% of the total number of 35 intense storms. Preliminary investigations have shown that Dst-variations, constructed from B_z-data using the relations derived herein, are quite close to the observed, particularly as regards the main phase (3 examples are given).     

行星际扰动和地磁活动对GEO相对论电子影响

利用1988—2010年小时平均的GOES卫星数据,对地球同步轨道(GEO)相对论电子变化进行了统计分析,研究了相对论电子通量(Fe)增强事件的发展过程,探讨了利于相对论电子通量增强的太阳风和地磁活动条件.主要结论如下:(1)GEO相对论电子通量即使是峰值,也具有明显的地方时特性,最大电子通量出现在磁正午时.午/夜电子通量比率随着太阳风速度(Vsw)增加而增大;在Dst-50nT时相对论电子具有规则的地方时变化.在太阳活动下降相,电子通量与各参数的相关性较好,与其相关性最好的Vsw、Kp指数以及三次根号下的太阳风密度(N)分别出现在电子通量前39~57h、57~80h和12~24h.(2)强(日平均电子通量峰值Femax≥104 pfu)相对论电子事件,在距离太阳活动谷年前两年左右和春秋分期间发生率最高,较弱(104Femax≥103 pfu)事件无此特点;大部分强相对论电子事件中,电子通量在磁暴主相开始增加,较弱事件中则在恢复相开始回升.(3)太阳风密度变化对相对论电子事件的发展具有重要指示作用.电子通量在太阳风密度极大值后0~1天达到极小值,太阳风密度极小值后0~2天达到极大值.(4)90%以上相对论电子事件是在磁暴及高速太阳风的条件下发生的,与其伴随的行星际参数和地磁活动指数极值满足以下条件:Vswmax516km/s,Dstmin-31nT,Nmin2.8cm-3,Nmax14.1cm-3,Bzmin-2.9nT,AEmax698nT.(5)磁暴过程中,Dstmin后日平均电子通量大于103 pfu的发生概率为53%左右,强/弱相对论电子事件占总数比例分别为36%/64%左右,磁暴强度对其无影响.磁暴过程中的Vsw、N和AE指数大小对于能否引起相对论电子增强起着指示作用.     

Simultaneous interplanetary scintillation and optical measurements of the acceleration of the slow solar wind

Simultaneous observations of the slow solar wind off the southeast limb of the Sun were made in May 1999 using optical measurements from the C2 and C3 LASCO coronagraphs on board the SOHO spacecraft and radio-scattering measurements from the MERLIN and EISCAT facilities. The observations show the slow solar wind accelerating outwards from 4.5 solar radii (R), reaching a final velocity of 200–300 km s^-1 by 25–30 R. The acceleration profile indicated by these results is more gentle than the average profile seen in earlier LASCO observations of larger scale features, but is within the variation seen in these studies.     

Reconstruction of the sector structure of the interplanetary magnetic field by geomagnetic station data

This paper describes a new method for reconstructing the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field. The technique is based on the Svalgaard-Mansurov effect. We ause geomagnetic data of high-latitude stations with a long observation period, including the presatellite era. This method is designed to improve the quality and accuracy of reconstructed polarity, complementing the results of previous methods of Svalgaard (1975) and Vennerstr?m et al. (2001). For the large presatellite period from 1926, the accuracy of the method is estimated to be around 89% of overlaps with the interplanetary magnetic field polarity determined from satellite data.     

地磁房建设中的磁性检测

德都地震台从2006年4月25日开始进行台站的数字化改造,改造的主要内容是进行地磁绝对观测室的建设和地磁相对记录室的建设。众所周知,地磁观测用房建设难度大,而难度大主要来自地磁观测场地和地磁观测设施的磁性是否合格。本文就是对德都地震台建设地磁房期间有关磁性检测和检测结果的介绍。利用G856磁力仪和CTM-DI磁通门磁力仪,进行野外和台站的材料磁性检测,方便、快捷、准确,是保证地磁观测用房建筑材料磁性合格的好方法。     

自适应滤波器在地磁数据噪音处理中的应用

利用自适应信号处理的原理，尝试消除地磁观测数据中的干扰噪音。结果显示这种方法能有效地抑制包括随机噪音，大幅度突跳偏离和阶跃各种形式的干扰。对于和信号频率相重的干扰能给予有效抑制，且能保持信号基本不变。     

2007-2012年Dstmin≤-50nT的中等以上地磁暴的行星际源统计

地磁暴的行星际源研究是了解及预报地磁暴的关键因素之一.本文研究了2007-2012年间的所有Dst_min ≤-50 nT的中等以上地磁暴,建立了这些地磁暴及其行星际源的列表.在这6年中,共发生了51次Dst_min≤-50 nT的中等以上地磁暴,其中9次为Dst_min≤-100 nT的强地磁暴事件.对比上一活动周相同时间段发现,在这段太阳活动极低的时间,地磁暴的数目显著减少.对这些地磁暴行星际源的分析表明,65%的中等以上地磁暴由与日冕物质抛射相关的行星际结构引起,31%的地磁暴由共转相互作用区引起,这与以前的结果一致.特别的,在这个太阳活动极低时期内,共转相互作用区没有引起Dst_min≤-100 nT的强地磁暴,同时,日冕物质抛射相关结构也没有引起Dst_min≤-200 nT的超强地磁暴.以上结果表明极低太阳活动同时导致了共转相互作用区和日冕物质抛射地磁效应的减弱.进一步,分析不同太阳活动期间地磁暴的行星际源发现:在太阳活动低年(2007-2009年),共转相互作用区是引起地磁暴的主要原因; 而在太阳活动上升期和高年(2010-2013年),大部分(75%,30/40)的中等以上地磁暴均由日冕物质抛射相关结构引起.     

中国地磁台网的K指数测量结果分析

Ｋ指数以０,１,……,９的数字分为１０级,以３小时为一时段,简单、直观、清晰地表示出地磁场受太阳微粒辐射而形成的扰动变化的程度。Ｋ指数测量是地磁台日常工作的重要内容之一。正确地区别Ｋ变化与非Ｋ变化是测量Ｋ指数的基本要求和关键所在。我国地磁台站从１９８９年开始用规则日变化ＳＲ代替“铁曲线”来识别Ｋ变化与非Ｋ变化,使测量方法与国际上的通行做法相一致。本文通过对我国地磁台站的Ｋ频次分布统计指出,在采用新     

On the periodic variations of geomagnetic activity indices Ap and ap

Yearly averages of geomagnetic activity indices Ap for the years 1967–1984 are compared to the respective averages of v² · B_s, where v is the solar wind velocity and B_s is the southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) component. The correlation of both quantities is known to be rather good. Comparing the averages of Ap with v² and B_s separately we find that, during the declining phase of the solar cycle, v² and during the ascending phase B_s have more influence on Ap. According to this observation (using Fourier spectral analysis) the semiannual and 27 days, Ap variations for the years 1932–1993 were analysed separately for years before and after sunspot minima. Only those time-intervals before sunspot minima with a significant 27-day recurrent period of the IMF sector structure and those intervals after sunspot minima with a significant 28–28.5-day recurrent period of the sector structure were used. The averaged spectra of the two Ap data sets clearly show a period of 27 days before and a period of 28–29 days after sunspot minimum. Moreover, the phase of the average semiannual wave of Ap is significantly different for the two groups of data: the Ap variation maximizes near the equinoxes during the declining phase of the sunspot cycle and near the beginning of April and October during the ascending phase of the sunspot cycle, as predicted by the Russell-McPherron (R-M) mechanism. Analysing the daily variation of ap in an analogue manner, the same equinoctial and R-M mechanisms are seen, suggesting that during phases of the solar cycle, when ap depends more on the IMF-B_s component, the R-M mechanism is predominant, whereas during phases when ap increases as v increases the equinoctial mechanism is more likely to be effective.     

Relation of geomagnetic disturbances to the dynamics of the magnetosphere and the parameters of the interplanetary medium

The results of studying the dependence of the earthward shift of the magnetospheric boundaries on the magnetic storm power are generalized. The magnetosphere saturation effect, a sharp deceleration of the boundary shift at an increase in the ring current power above a certain critical level, is discussed. The geoeffectiveness of the solar wind parameters is discussed.