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1.
Using pattern recognition techniques, we formulate a simple prediction rule for a retrospective prediction of the three last largest eruptions of the Popocatépetl, Mexico, volcano that occurred on 23 April–30 June 1997 (Eruption 1; VEI ~ 2–3); 11 December 2000–23 January 2001 (Eruption 2; VEI ~ 3–4) and 7 June–4 September 2002 (Eruption 3; explosive dome extrusion and destruction phase). Times of Increased Probability (TIP) were estimated from the seismicity recorded by the local seismic network from 1 January 1995 to 31 December 2005. A TIP is issued when a cluster of seismic events occurs under our algorithm considerations in a temporal window several days (or weeks) prior to large volcanic activity providing sufficient time to organize an effective alert strategy. The best predictions of the three analyzed eruptions were obtained when averaging seismicity rate over a 5-day window with a threshold value of 12 events and declaring an alarm for 45 days. A TIP was issued about six weeks before Eruption 1. TIPs were detected about one and four weeks before Eruptions 2 and 3, respectively. According to our objectives, in all cases, the observed TIPs would have allowed the development of an effective civil protection strategy. Although, under our model considerations the three eruptive events were successfully predicted, one false alarm was also issued by our algorithm. An analysis of the epicentral and depth distribution of the local seismicity used by our prediction rule reveals that successful TIPs were issued from microearthquakes that took place below and towards SE of the crater. On the contrary, the seismicity that issued the observed false alarm was concentrated below the summit of the volcano. We conclude that recording of precursory seismicity below and SE of the crater together with detection of TIPs as described here, could become an important tool to predict future large eruptions at Popocatépetl. Although our model worked well for events that occurred in the past, it is necessary to verify the real capability of the model for future eruptive events.  相似文献   

2.
Citlaltépetl or Pico de Orizaba is the highest active volcano in the North American continent. Although Citlaltépetl is at present in repose, its eruptive history reveals repetitive explosive eruptions in the past. Its relatively low eruption rate has favored significant population growth in areas that may be affected by a potential eruptive activity. The need of some criteria for hazards assessment and land-use planning has motivated the use of statistical methods to estimate the time and space distribution of volcanic hazards around this volcano. The analysis of past activity, from late Pleistocene to historic times, and the extent of some well-identified deposits are used to calculate the recurrence probabilities of eruptions of various size during time periods useful for land-use planning.  相似文献   

3.
Airborne and ground-based (correlation spectrometer, cascade impactor, and photoelectric counter together with intake filter probes) measurements are described for the volcanic emissions from Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico) from December 23, 1994 to January 28, 1995. Measurements of SO2 restarted 48 h after the eruption onset of December 21, 1994. Maximum sulfur dioxide (4560 t d−1) plus 3.8×104 t d−1 of particulate matter were ejected on December 24, 1994. The maximum rate of ejection occurred coincidentally with the maximum amplitude of harmonic tremor and the maximum number of seismic type B events. Sulfur dioxide emission rates ranged from 1790 to 2070 t d−1 (December 23–24, 1994). Afterwards, sulfur dioxide emission rates clearly indicated a consistent decline. However, frequent gas and ash emission puffs exhibited SO2 fluxes reaching values as high as 3060 t d−1. The emission SO2 baseline for the period of study (February 1994–January 1995) was about 1000 t d−1. Ejection velocity of particulate matter was approximately 270 m s−1 reaching a height of about 2.5 km over the summit. The immediate aerosol dispersion area was estimated at 6.0×104 km2 maximum. The microscopic structure of particles (aerosol and tephra) showed a fragile material, probably coming from weathered crustal layers. X-ray fluorescence and neutron-activation analysis from the impactor samples found the following elements: Si, Al, Ca, S, P, Cl, K, Ni, Fe, Ti, Sc, Cu, Zn, Mn, Sr, Cr, Co, Y, Br, Se, Ga, Rb, Hg and Pb. Morphological analysis shows that ash samples might be from pulverized basaltic rock indicating that the Popocatépetl eruption of December 21, 1994 was at low temperature. The microscopic structure of puff material showed substance aggregates consisted of fragile rock, water and adsorbed SO2. These aggregates were observed within water droplets of approximately 1 mm and even larger. Sulfur transformations in the droplets occurred intensively. Volcanic ash contained 5–6% of sulfur during the first expulsion hours. Elemental relative concentrations with respect to Al show that both Si and S have relative concentrations >1, i.e., 13.73 and 2.17, respectively in agreement with the photoelectric counter and COSPEC measurements.  相似文献   

4.
Popocatépetl volcano in central Mexico has been erupting explosively and effusively for almost 4 years. SO2 emission rates from this volcano have been the largest ever measured using a COSPEC. Pre-eruptive average SO2 emission rates (2–3 kt/d) were similar to the emission rates measured during the first part of the eruption (up to August 1995) in contrast with the effusive–explosive periods (March 1996–January 1998) during which SO2 emission rates were higher by a factor of four (9–13 kt/d). Based on a chronology of the eruption and the average SO2 emission rates per period, the total SO2 emissions (up to 1 January 1998) are estimated to be about 9 Mt, roughly half as much as the SO2 emissions from Mount Pinatubo in a shorter period. Popocatépetl volcano is thus considered as a high-emission rate, passively degassing eruptive volcano. SO2 emission rates and SO2 emissions are used here to make a mass balance of the erupted magma and related gases. Identified excess SO2 is explained in terms of continuous degassing of unerupted magma and magma mixing. Fluctuations in SO2 emission rate may be a result of convection and crystallization in the chamber or the conduits, cleaning and sealing of the plumbing system, and/or SO2 scrubbing by the hydrothermal system.  相似文献   

5.
Three crater lakes from Mexican volcanoes were sampled and analyzed at various dates to determine their chemical characteristics. Strong differences were observed in the chemistry among the three lakes: Nevado de Toluca, considered as dormant, El Chichón at a post-eruptive stage, and Popocatépetl at a pre-eruptive stage. Not surprisingly, no influence of volcanic activity was found at the Nevado de Toluca volcano, while the other volcanoes showed a correlation between the changing level of activity and the evolution of chemical trends. Low pHs (<3.0) were measured in the water from the active volcanoes, while a pH of 5.6 was measured at the Nevado de Toluca Sun lake. Changes with time were observed at Popocatépetl and El Chichón. Concentrations of volcanic-gas derived species like Cl, SO42− and F decreased irregularly at El Chichón from 1983 until 1997. Major cations concentrations also diminished at El Chichón. A 100% increase in the SO42− content was measured at Popocatépetl between 1985 and 1994. An increase in the Mg/Cl ratio between 1992 (Mg/Cl=0.085) and 1994 (Mg/Cl=0.177) was observed at Popocatépetl, before the disappearance of the crater lake in 1994. It is concluded that chemical analysis of crater lakes may provide a useful additional tool for active-volcano monitoring.  相似文献   

6.
Nuées ardentes associated with dome collapse on 22 November 1994, at Merapi volcano traveled to the south–southwest as far as 6.5 km, and collectively accumulated roughly 2.5–3 million cubic meters of deposits. The damaged area comprises 9.5 km2 and is covered by two nuée ardente facies, a conventional “Merapi-type”, valley-fill block-and-ash flow facies and a pyroclastic surge facies. The proximal deposits reflect the accumulation of dozens of nuées ardentes, with many subsidiary flow units. The distal deposits are more simply organized, as only a few individual events reached to distances >3.5 km. The stratigraphic relationships north of Turgo hill indicate that the surge deposits are a facies of particularly mobile nuées ardentes that also deposited channeled block-and-ash flow facies. They further suggest that the surge facies beyond the channel margins correlate laterally with a finer-grained sublayer locally developed at the base of the block-and-ash flow facies. Eyewitness reports suggest that the emplacement of the block-and-ash flow facies in the distal part of the Boyong river may have followed, by a short time interval, the destruction and deposition of the surge facies at Turgo village. The stratigraphy is in accord with the eyewitness reports. The surge facies was emplaced by a dilute surge current, detached from the same dome-collapse nuée ardente that, as a separate flow unit, subsequently emplaced the distal block-and-ash deposit in the Boyong valley. The detachment occurred at higher elevations, likely at or above the slope break at about 2000 m elevation. This flow separation enabled the surge current to shortcut over the landscape and to emplace its deposit even as the block-and-ash flow continued its tortuous southward movement in the Boyong channel. Dome-collapse nuée ardente activity formed the bulk of the eruption, which was accompanied by virtually no significant vertical summit explosive activity.  相似文献   

7.
8.
Réunion is a volcanic edifice whose origin is related to a hot spot in the Indian Ocean. Only 3% of its volume is emergent. Many geological and geophysical studies were carried out on Réunion Island during the 1980's but few of them allow study of the internal structure of the edifice. Several gravity surveys have been carried out on the island since 1976 and we have compiled the available data set. The lack of data on the western side of the island led us to conduct a regional survey in 1993 to obtain a more homogeneous distribution of the stations. Computation of Bouguer anomalies for different correction densities accounts for the variable density of the rocks constituting the edifice and provides a distribution of gravity anomalies interpreted as dense bodies of intrusive rocks inside the edifice. Two very large intrusive complexes can be unambiguously recognised: one beneath Piton des Neiges and one beneath the Grand Brûlé area. Both have been penetrated by geothermal exploration drill holes and the first is also known from outcrop observations. 2.5D simple models were constructed to reveal the geometry and extent of the buried intrusives. They are deeply rooted, extending several kilometres below sea level, and extensive (20–25 km long and 10–13 km wide for the Piton des Neiges complex, 12–15 km long and some kilometres wide for the Grand Brûlé complex). The development of such complexes implies that the activity of the two volcanic centres was long lasting and remained stable while the volcanoes were growing. The Grand Brûlé complex has been interpreted as relics of an old volcano named Alizés Volcano. The interpretation of the gravity maps suggests the presence of a ridge of dense rocks to the North of the axis joining the centres of Piton des Neiges and Piton de la Fournaise volcanoes. By analogy with the other structures, 2.5D models show that this structure would culminate between 0 and 1 km below sea level and be 15 km wide. This complex induces a maximum anomaly in Takamaka Valley and we thus propose to name it Takamaka Volcano. No geological evidence of the nature of these dense rocks is available but the ridge coincides with structures revealed by magnetic and seismic data. Interpretation of the Bouguer anomaly maps suggests that the inner gravity structure of Piton de la Fournaise is not characterised by the presence of a voluminous dense body but probably by more restricted concentrations of dense rocks. Some structures can be recognised: along the present NE and SE rift zones and in the previous central part of Piton de la Fournaise to the West of the present summit. The recent eastward migration of the centre of activity of Piton de la Fournaise accounts for the lack of a large positive anomaly beneath the active craters.  相似文献   

9.
This paper presents the first remote measurements of La Soufrière gas emissions since the fumarolic and seismic reactivation in 1992. The chemical composition of the plumes has been measured from May 2003 to September 2004 using an Open Path Fourier Transform InfraRed (OP-FTIR) spectrometer, up to 15 m downwind the South Crater. HCl is clearly detected (concentration between 2.4 and 12 ppmv) whereas SO2 and H2S generally remain below the detection limit of the OP-FTIR. Direct measurements of SO2 and H2S near the South Crater with a Lancom III analyzer show a fast decrease of their concentrations with the distance. Calculated Cl / S mass ratios are high: from 9.4 ± 1.7 at 15 m from the vent to 2.8 ± 0.6 at 140 m. The enrichment in HCl of the gas emitted at La Soufrière, observed since 1998, corresponds to the degassing of a magma enriched in Cl and depleted in S. This result agrees with isotopic measurements which suggest a magmatic origin of the gases. Readjustments inside the volcanic system may have taken place during the seismic activity beginning in 1992 and enhance the transfer of magmatic gases to the summit.  相似文献   

10.
Gases, condensates and silica tube precipitates were collected from 400°C (Z2) and 800°C (Z3) fumaroles at Colima volcano, Mexico, in 1996–1998. Volcanic gases at Colima were very oxidized and contain up to 98% air due to mixing with air inside the dome interior, close to the hot magmatic body. An alkaline trap method was used to collect gas samples, therefore only acidic species were analysed. Colima volcanic gases are water-rich (95–98 mol%) and have typical S/C/Cl/F ratios for a subduction type volcano. δD-values for the high-temperature Z3 fumarolic vapour vary from −26 to −57‰. A negative δD–Cl correlation for the Z3 high-temperature fumarole may result from magma degassing: enrichment in D and decrease in the Cl concentration in condensates are likely a consequence of input of “fresh” batches of magma and an increasing of volcanic activity, respectively.The trace element composition of Colima condensates generally does not differ from that of other volcanoes (e.g. Merapi, Kudryavy) except for some enrichment in V, Cu and Zn. Variations in chemical composition of precipitates along the silica tube from the high-temperature fumarole (Colima 1, fumarole Z3), in contrast to other volcanoes, are characterized by high concentrations of Ca and V, low concentration of Mo and a lack of Cd. Mineralogy of precipitates differs significantly from that described for silica tube experiments at other volcanoes with reduced volcanic gas. Thermochemical modelling was used to explain why very oxidized gas at Colima does not precipitate halite, sylvite, and Mo- and Cd-minerals, but does precipitate V-minerals and native gold, which have not been observed before in mineral precipitates from reduced volcanic gases.  相似文献   

11.
We used a 54-year (1950–2003) ice scar chronology constructed from damaged trees to investigate relationships between large scale hydro-climatic conditions and mechanical breakup magnitude in the Necopastic River watershed (James Bay, northern Québec). Our objectives were: (1) to identify hydrologic and climatic variables that explain variations in mechanical breakup magnitude at the watershed scale, (2) to organize these variables in terms of importance and (3) to construct a predictive model for ice-floods in the Necopastic watershed. We used parametric correlation analysis to measure the degree of linear association between variables and classification trees (CT) coupled with a cross-validation approach to construct the predictive model and to organize variables according to their importance. In the Necopastic watershed, the type and magnitude of breakups are determined by an interaction between forces that maintain the ice cover in place and forces that tend to dislodge it. In contrast with lakes, early and rapidly rising floods, rather than abnormally high flood discharge, create conditions that favour intense mechanical breakups. Moreover, cold and snowy spring conditions during high positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) indices delay the thermal degradation of the ice cover and preserve its mechanical properties over longer time periods.  相似文献   

12.
Since the March–April 1982 eruption of El Chichòn volcano, intense hydrothermal activity has characterised the 1-km-wide summit crater. This mainly consists of mud and boiling pools, fumaroles, which are mainly located in the northwestern bank of the crater lake. During the period 1998–2000, hot springs and fumaroles discharging inside the crater and from the southeastern outer flank (Agua Caliente) were collected for chemical analyses. The observed chemical fluctuations suggest that the physico-chemical boundary conditions regulating the thermodynamic equilibria of the deep rock/fluid interactions have changed with time. The chemical composition of the lake water, characterised in the period 1983–1997 by high Na+, Cl, Ca2+ and SO42− contents, experienced a dramatic change in 1998–1999, turning from a Na+–Cl- to a Ca2+–SO42−-rich composition. In June 2000, a relatively sharp increase in Na+ and Cl contents was observed. At the same time, SO2/H2S ratios and H2 and CO contents in most gas discharges increased with respect to the previous two years of observations, suggesting either a new input of deep-seated fluids or local variations of the more surficial hydrothermal system. Migration of gas manifestations, enhanced number of emission spots and variations in both gas discharge flux and outlet temperatures of the main fluid manifestations were also recorded. The magmatic-hydrothermal system of El Chichòn is probably related to interaction processes between a deep magmatic source and a surficial cold aquifer; an important role may also be played by the interaction of the deep fluids with the volcanic rocks and the sedimentary (limestone and evaporites) basement. The chemical and physical changes recorded in 1998–2000 were possibly due to variations in the permeability of the conduit system feeding the fluid discharges at surface, as testified by the migration of gas and water emanations. Two different scenarios can be put forward for the volcanic evolution of El Chichòn: (1) build-up of an infra-crater dome that may imply a future eruption in terms of tens to hundreds of years; (2) minor phreatic–phreatomagmatic events whose prediction and timing is more difficult to constrain. This suggests that, unlike the diminished volcanic activity at El Chichòn after the 1982 paroxistic event, the volcano-hydrothermal fluid discharges need to be more constantly monitored with regular and more frequent geochemical sampling and, at the same time, a permanent network of seismic stations should be installed.  相似文献   

13.
Shlomo P. Neuman 《水文研究》2010,24(15):2056-2067
Many earth and environmental variables appear to be self‐affine (monofractal) or multifractal with spatial (or temporal) increments having exceedance probability tails that decay as powers of − α where 1 < α ≤ 2. The literature considers self‐affine and multifractal modes of scaling to be fundamentally different, the first arising from additive and the second from multiplicative random fields or processes. We demonstrate theoretically that data having finite support, sampled across a finite domain from one or several realizations of an additive Gaussian field constituting fractional Brownian motion (fBm) characterized by α = 2, give rise to positive square (or absolute) increments which behave as if the field was multifractal when in fact it is monofractal. Sampling such data from additive fractional Lévy motions (fLm) with 1 < α < 2 causes them to exhibit spurious multifractality. Deviations from apparent multifractal behaviour at small and large lags are due to nonzero data support and finite domain size, unrelated to noise or undersampling (the causes cited for such deviations in the literature). Our analysis is based on a formal decomposition of anisotropic fLm (fBm when α = 2) into a continuous hierarchy of statistically independent and homogeneous random fields, or modes, which captures the above behaviour in terms of only E + 3 parameters where E is Euclidean dimension. Although the decomposition is consistent with a hydrologic rationale proposed by Neuman (2003), its mathematical validity is independent of such a rationale. Our results suggest that it may be worth checking how closely would variables considered in the literature to be multifractal (e.g. experimental and simulated turbulent velocities, some simulated porous flow velocities, landscape elevations, rain intensities, river network area and width functions, river flow series, soil water storage and physical properties) fit the simpler monofractal model considered in this paper (such an effort would require paying close attention to the support and sampling window scales of the data). Parsimony would suggest associating variables found to fit both models equally well with the latter. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Previous petrological and phase-equilibrium experimental studies on recent silicic andesites from Mount Pelée volcano have evidenced comparable pre-eruptive conditions for plinian and dome-forming (pelean herein) eruptions, implying that differences in eruptive style must be primarily controlled by differences in degassing behaviour of the Mount Pelée magmas during eruption. To further investigate the degassing conditions of plinian and pelean magmas of Mount Pelée, we study here the most recent Mount Pelée's products (P1 at 650 years B.P., 1902, and 1929 eruptions, which cover a range of plinian and pelean lithologies) for bulk-rock vesicularities, glass water contents (glass inclusions in phenocrysts and matrix glasses) and microtextures. Water contents of glass inclusions are scattered in the plinian pumices but on average compare with the experimentally-deduced pre-eruptive melt water content (i.e., 5.3–6.3 wt.%), whereas they are much lower in the dominant pelean lithologies (crystalline, poorly vesicular lithics and dome samples). This indicates that the glass inclusions of the pelean products have undergone strong leakage and do not represent pre-eruptive water contents. The water content of the pyroclast matrix glasses are thought to closely represent the residual water content in the melt at the time of fragmentation. Determination of the water contents of both the pre-eruptive melt and matrix glasses allows the estimation of the amount of water exsolved upon syn-eruptive degassing. We find the amount of water exsolved during the eruptive process to be higher in the pelean products than in the plinian ones, typically 90–100 and 65–70% of the initial water content, respectively. The vesicularities calculated from the amount of exsolved water compare with the measured vesicularities for the plinian pumices, consistent with a closed-system, near-equilibrium degassing up to fragmentation. By contrast, the low residual water contents, low groundmass vesicularities and extensive groundmass crystallization of the pelean products are direct evidence of open-system degassing. Microtextural features, including silica-bearing and silica-free voids in the pelean lithologies may represent a two-stage vesiculation.  相似文献   

15.
Despite the presence of numerous dams in Québec, no study has yet been devoted to their impacts on flood levels. To compensate for this deficiency, we have compared the impacts of dams on the five characteristics (magnitude and its interannual variability, timing and its interannual variability, and asymmetry) of the maximum annual flows between natural rivers and regulated rivers by means of several statistical approaches (analysis of variance, chi‐square test, nonparametric tests, etc.). In the course of this study, we analysed 88 stations on pristine rivers and 60 stations on regulated rivers. The latter group was subdivided into three regulated hydrologic regimes, i.e. inversed flow regimes (25 stations), homogenization flow regimes (15 stations) and natural‐type flow regimes (20 stations). The following observations emerge from this study. (1) In inversed and homogenization flow regimes, generally associated with reservoirs, all the flow characteristics are modified. These modifications notably entrain a decrease in magnitude, a significant reduction in the frequency of the maximum annual spring flows when the snow is melting and an increase in skewness of the distribution and interannual variability of the magnitude and dates of occurrence of the annual maximum flows. We also observed the disappearance of most flows with a recurrence of over 10 years. All these changes particularly affect watersheds larger than 10 000 km2. (2) In natural‐type flow regimes, often associated with run‐of‐river dams, very few changes were observed compared with pristine rivers. These changes primarily affected watersheds smaller than 1000 km2. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
The Grande Découverte Volcanic Complex (GDVC), active since at least 0.2 Ma, is the most recent volcanic complex of the Basse-Terre Island (Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles Arc). A detailed geochronological study using the K–Ar Cassignol–Gillot technique has been undertaken in order to reconstruct the history of effusive activity of this long-lived volcanic system. Twenty new ages permit to suggest that the GDVC experienced at least six main effusive stages, from 200 ka to present time. To the north of the GDVC, the GDS (Grande Découverte–Soufrière volcano) has been active since at least 200 ka, and to the south, the TRMF (Trois-Rivières–Madeleine Field), started to be emplaced 100 ka. Morphological investigations suggest that the whole TRMF volcanism was emitted from vents distinct from the GDS, most probably a large E–W fissure network linked to the Marie-Galante rift. The mean age of 62 ± 5 ka, obtained for the E–W Madeleine–Le Palmiste alignment suggests that a fissure-opening event occurred at that time. However, whole-rock major and trace element signatures are similar for both systems, suggesting that a common complex magma-plumbing system has fed the overall GDVC. We report very young ages for lava flows from the TRMF, which implies that < 10 ka volcanic activity is now identified for both massifs. Although hazards associated with such effusive volcanism are much lower than those associated with potential flank-collapse of the Soufrière lava dome or a magmatic dome eruption with explosive phases within the GDS, the emplacement of relatively large Holocene age lava flows (3–1 × 108 m3) suggests that a revised integrated volcanic hazard assessment for Southern Basse-Terre should now consider the potential for renewed future activity from two Holocene volcanic centers including the TRMF.  相似文献   

17.
Basaltic rocks with low K, U and Th contents dominate the entire Volcanic Complex of the Doupovské hory Mts. Significant potassium anomaly exceeding 1.5 atomic wt.% of potassium over an area of 4 × 8 km and 2 atomic wt.% of potassium over an area of 2 × 6 km was defined by airborne gamma-ray spectrometry above the central part of the Doupovské hory Volcanic Complex. The following detailed field study, supported by field and laboratory gamma-spectrometry measurements and geochemical analyses of rock samples, resulted in discovery of a swarm of potassium-rich trachytic dykes. The existence of such highly-differentiated rocks in the volcanic complex was unknown till present. These dykes are commonly less than 1 m wide, but their potassium content varies between 4 and 8 atomic wt.%. Owing to this high-K composition and relative abundance of dykes, the dyke rocks significantly modify the regional pattern of gamma-spectrometry data. The potassium anomaly cannot be explained by the presence of Flurbühl intrusive body dominated by ijolites and essexites, as all these rocks are poor in K, with potassium typically not exceeding 1.5 wt.%. On the other hand, much more extensive intermediate trachybasaltic lavas with K content varying within the range 1.8–3 wt.% cause only minor or undetectable anomalies.  相似文献   

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