中东水问题成因、合作与冲突

中东战略位置重要、石油资源丰富但水资源短缺,常常被人们形容为“干旱的宝地”。水问题不仅严重制约着该地区的经济发展和社会进步,而且同该地区错综复杂的民族矛盾、边界纠纷、领土争端和教派分歧等紧紧纠缠在一起,形成一枚随时被引爆的炸弹,时刻威胁着该地区的政治稳定,不断影响着该地区的外交和国际关系,使一触即发的中东局势火上加油。因此,西方国家、尤其是北大西洋公约组织已将中东水问题作为重大军事战略问题来研究。本文初步分析了中东水问题的成因、简要介绍了几种解决措施,并基本澄清了有关问题。     

东亚干旱半干旱区沙漠化与气候变化相互影响研究进展

气候系统主要通过气温、降水及风场等因素影响沙漠化过程,但不同区域其影响机制存在较大差异。目前的研究结果表明,总体上,降水对沙漠化的影响较为明确,降水量增加有利于沙漠化逆转。气温和风场变化对沙漠化的影响存在明显区域差异：在季风带沙漠化区,气温升高及高空盛行西南风有利于沙漠化逆转;在非季风带沙漠化区,一方面气温升高导致蒸发量增加,沙漠化发展;另一方面,其增加了冰川、冰雪融水的补给,沙漠化逆转;在高寒带沙漠化区,旱灾和寒冻灾害是沙漠化的主因。此外,沙漠化过程通过植被、地表及土壤特征等的改变影响气候系统。例如沙漠化过程的发生伴随地表植被覆盖的变化,并通过改变地表反照率、潜热通量、粗糙度等来影响气温、降水等气候因子;还通过沙尘释放量的变化来影响降水的发生。虽然沙漠化与气候系统间存在多种反馈机制,但反照率—气温—降水—植被的正反馈及沙尘—降水—植被的正反馈是其主要反馈机制。     

Sandstone terrain in a semi‐arid littoral environment: the Lower Murchison Valley,Western Australia

Stream and wave erosion have cut spectacular cliffs in the Tumblagooda Sandstone in the Murchison gorge and along the adjacent coast. The sandplain above the cliffs developed between the Late Cretaceous and the Mid Tertiary but whether it formed at low level and was then uplifted or was formed at its present elevation is not known. The upper 30 km of the gorge post‐dates the laterite on the sandplain. As there is little runoff from the sandplain, erosion is limited to the edge of the gorge. Joints have controlled erosion of small tributaries but have had very limited effect on the course of the Murchison proper. Facies changes within the sandstone are reflected in the form of the cliffs. Very extensive cavernous weathering on the cliffs is attributed to crystallisation of salt. Comparisons with sandstone terrains elsewhere suggest that lithology may be just as important as climate in controlling large‐scale spatial variation of landforms.     

亚洲中部干旱区丝绸之路沿线环境演化与东西方文化交流

基于环境记录、考古发现,以及同位素资料,对亚洲中部干旱区丝绸之路沿线的全新世以来的环境变化和东西方文化交流进行了梳理。结果表明,研究区独特的地理环境和环境变化过程,深刻地影响着文化的发展和传播。河西走廊受季风影响,表现出季风—西风过渡带干湿变化的模式,晚全新世气候趋向干旱;从新疆到中亚的丝绸之路沿线的环境变化比较一致：在早全新世（BC 6000以前）主要为干旱环境,植被以荒漠类型占优势;中晚全新世,湿润程度增加,草原植被扩展。新疆和中亚全新世中晚期较为湿润的环境为东西文化交流提供了较适宜的环境基础。得益于环境条件的改善,东西方文化交流融合的进程在BC 2000以后明显加速。在BC 2500-2000期间,东西方农业文化在丝绸之路沿线接触融合,是史前丝绸之路的首次贯通;在BC 2000-1000期间,丝绸之路沿线绿洲地带形成了以小麦—/大麦—粟黍—畜牧为特征的混合型经济特征,并扩散到欧亚草原带,和周围的畜牧业形成鲜明的对照,并持续到历史时期。这种空间分异,是地理环境和东西方文化交流共同作用的结果。在史前时期,东西方农业的相向传播和融合,基本沿着山前地带的绿洲蛙跳式前进。到了历史时期,政治版图的变化是影响丝绸之路的首要因素,但环境变化仍然是不可忽略的因素。     

Response of Sandy Lake in Schirmacher Oasis,East Antarctica to the glacial-interglacial climate shift

Freshwater lakes in Antarctica fluctuate from ice-free state (during austral summer) to ice-cover state (during austral winter). Hence the lakes respond instantly to the seasonal climate of the region. The Antarctic seasons respond sharply to the glacial and interglacial climates and these signatures are archived in the lake sediments. A sediment core from Sandy Lake, a periglacial lake located in Schirmacher Oasis of East Antarctica records distinct changes in grain-size, C, N, C/N ratios (atomic), δ¹³C_OM and δ¹⁵N_OM contents during the last 36 ky. The contents of the sedimentary organic matter (OM) proxies (C_org ~ 0.3 ± 0.2%, C/N ratios ~9 ± 5 and δ¹³C_OM ~?18 ± 6‰) indicate that the OM in this lake sediment is a product of mixing of terrestrial and lacustrine biomass. Distinctly lower contents of C_org (~0.2%) and sand (~50%), low C/N ratios (~8) and depleted δ¹³C_OM (~?20‰) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 32–17 ky BP based on Vostok Temperatures) suggest greater internal (autochthonous) provenance of organic matter and limited terrestrial (allochthonous) inputs probably due to long and intense winters in the Antarctic. Such intense winters might have resulted the lake surface to be ice-covered for most part of the year when the temperatures remained consistently colder than the Holocene temperatures. The denitrification within the lake evident by enriched δ¹⁵N_OM (>10‰) during Antarctic LGM might have resulted from oxygen-limitation within the lake environment caused by insulated lake surface. The gradual increases in δ¹³C_OM, C/N and sand content starting at ~11 ky BP and attaining high values (~?11‰, ~10 and ~80% respectively) at ~6 ky BP together suggest a subtle change in the balance of sources of organic matter between algal and macrophyte/bryophyte nearly 8–9 ky later to the beginning of the deglaciation. Thus the seasonal opening-up of the Sandy Lake similar to the modern pattern started with the establishment of the optimum temperature conditions (i.e., 0 °C anomaly) in the Antarctic, prior to which the lake environment might have remained mostly insulated or closed.     

Sensitivity of arid/humid patterns in China to future climate change under a high-emissions scenario

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Changes in regional moisture patterns under the impact of climate change are an important focus for science. Based on the five global climate models (GCMs)...     

Middle to Late Holocene climate,vegetation and sea-level changes in NW Tripura,northeast India,based on palynological and mineral magnetic evidence

Journal of Paleolimnology - The sediment deposits of northwestern Tripura, northeast India, revealed the enhanced proximity to the marginal marine environments, forest cover variations and...     

Water wars in the Middle East: a looming threat

This paper explains how hydropolitical dynamics and spatial variables almost triggered a water war between Israel and Lebanon because the latter was building a pump on the Wazzani Spring, a tributary of the Jordan River. The convergence of a regional drought, history of violent confrontations between the two riparians, distrust, varying development needs and territorial disputes almost culminated in a war between these east Mediterranean neighbours. While most international water disputes in the Middle East will be resolved peacefully, some are likely to trigger violent confrontations threatening political stability in the Middle East in the next few decades.     

1970-2015年中东地区恐怖袭击事件的时空特征分析

中东作为恐怖活动的多发区域,了解其恐怖袭击的时空特征对恐怖活动治理具有重要意义。基于GTD的恐怖袭击事件空间分布数据,运用GIS空间分析方法对中东地区1970—2015年袭击事件的时空特征进行了探索,研究发现：恐怖组织偏好在边境区域活动,超过50%的袭击事件发生在距边界15km的范围内,约80%的袭击事件位于距边界35km范围内;恐怖袭击重心呈现出一定的空间迁移特征,主要分布于伊拉克、叙利亚、黎巴嫩、巴勒斯坦、约旦和以色列等西亚地区,重心的变化与地区之间的武装冲突、战争等具有空间上的关联性;历年的恐怖袭击形成了涉及伊拉克、伊朗、土耳其、以色列、约旦河西岸和加沙地带、黎巴嫩和阿尔及利亚的三处主要集聚区,同时集聚区伴随时间推移发生变化,各时间段的主、次集聚区分布于12个国家与地区,且恐怖主义活动表现出愈发激烈的趋势;恐怖袭击总体上存在显著的空间相关性,在不同时间段内,“高-高”聚类地区具有一定的空间分异性,但恐怖袭击的空间集聚现象愈加明显。     

Changing climate affects vegetation growth in the arid region of the northwestern China

The northwestern China is a typical dry-land region of Inner Asia, where significant climate change has been observed over the past several decades. How the regional vegetation, particularly the grassland-oasis-desert complex, responds to such climatic change is poorly understood. To address this question, we investigated spatio-temporal changes in vegetation growth and their responses to a changing climate by biome and bioregion, using satellite-sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 1982 to 2003, along with corresponding climate data. Over the past 22 years, about 30% of the total vegetated area showed an annual increase of 0.7% in growing season NDVI. This trend occurred in all biomes and all bioregions except Sawuer, a subregion of the study area with no significant climate change. Further analyses indicated that NDVI change was highly correlated with the current precipitation and evapotranspiration in growing season but was not associated with temperature. We also found that NDVI was positively correlated with the preceding winter precipitation. These findings suggest that precipitation may be the key cause of vegetation growth in this area, even for mountain forests and grasslands, whose growth are often regarded to be limited by low temperate in winter and early spring.     

Holocene climate and environmental changes inferred from sediment characteristics and diatom assemblages in a core from Hwajinpo Lagoon,Korea

Hwajinpo is the largest lagoon in Korea and is located along the east coast of the country. It possesses Holocene sediments that provide an important record of past climate change. We studied the evolution of Hwajinpo Lagoon using grain size data and diatom assemblages in an 11.0-m core (HJ02), which was obtained at the mouth of a small river that drains into the lagoon. Core chronology was established with accelerator mass spectrometry ¹⁴C dates and optically stimulated luminescence dates. Diatom assemblages and grain size analysis revealed that estuarine conditions in the inner lagoon area transitioned to an open embayment ca. 8 ka as a result of sea-level rise. Around 7.8 ka, the open bay became a semi-closed bay as a consequence of development of a sand barrier. After the bay was semi-closed, marine water inflow was increasingly restricted as the sand barrier developed, and the semi-closed bay became a completely enclosed, low-salinity, brackish lagoon around 6 ka. There was an erosional hiatus between 5.5 and 1.7 ka (7.0 m depth), likely caused by river flooding and a switch in the location of drainage along the delta. The lagoon became oligohaline around 1.6 ka, likely because of increasing precipitation associated with an intensified Asian summer monsoon. This increase in precipitation resulted in expansion of the sand bar by sediment inflow, driven by agricultural development in the area. About 1000 years ago, the diatom assemblage was similar to the modern assemblage, suggesting the lagoon’s current geomorphic conditions had been established.     

西部干旱区未来气候变化高分辨率预估

利用高分辨率区域气候模式WRF,基于CMIP5计划中MIROC5输出结果,进行了我国高分辨率(30 km)的历史模拟及未来预估。针对我国西部干旱区,在模式验证的基础上分析了该区域未来气温和降水的变化。历史模拟结果显示WRF对我国西部干旱区有较好的模拟能力,模拟结果较MIROC5有明显改进。21世纪西部干旱区将持续增暖,末期的增温幅度明显高于中期。和全国平均相比,西部干旱区21世纪增温幅度高于全国平均水平。空间分布上,年平均气温变化的主要特征是新疆南部增温高于新疆北部,山区的增温高于盆地。气温季节变化主要表现为夏季增温集中在山区,而冬季增温则更多集中在盆地。西部干旱区降水在21世纪总体呈现减少趋势,夏季降水减少更为明显,这和全国平均的降水增加并不一致。空间分布上,降水变化的主要特征是山区降水减少,其中夏季山区降水减少十分明显,而盆地降水则略有增加。     

过去30年气候变化对黄河源区水源涵养量的影响

黄河源区高寒生态系统具有重要的水源涵养功能。基于改进的LPJ动态植被模型,模拟研究1981-2010年中国黄河源区水源涵养量的时空变化特征,进一步探讨气候要素变化的影响。结果表明：近30年来黄河源区水源涵养量整体略呈减少趋势,减少速率为-1.15 mm/a,区域差异特征体现为大部分地区以减少趋势为主,特别是黄河源区东南部。过去30年黄河源区降水量以及大气水分需求能力的变化是影响生态系统水源涵养量增减的主要气候因素。随着干湿条件不同,两者影响程度各异,降水减少和潜在蒸散增加共同导致黄河源区东南部半湿润地区水源涵养量减少,而降水增加则是北部半干旱地区水源涵养量增加的主要原因。     

Response to climate change of different tree species and NDVI variation since 1923 in the middle arid region of Ningxia, China

The normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） is used extensively to describe vegetation cover and ecological environ- ment change. The purpose of this study was to contrast the response of different tree species growing in the same habitat to climate change and retrieve past NDVI using tree-ring width data from tree cores collected from the transitional zone of Pinus tabulaeformis and Picea crassifolia in the Luoshan Mountains in the middle arid region of Ningxia. Correlation analysis indi- cated that radial growth ofP tabulaeJbrmis is more sensitive to precipitation and temperature change than that ofP crassifolia. Natural factors such as water availability and heat at this elevation are more suited to the growth ofP crassifolia, and are more advantageous to its renewal and succession. P. crassifolia is probably the better of the two species for protecting the forest ecosystem and conserving water in the Luoshan desertification area. Ring width of P. crassifolia correlates significantly with average NDVI for April-May （r =0.641, p 〈0.01）, and both of them are influenced positively by precipitation in April-May. The reconstructed NDVI for 1923-2007 shows the relatively low vegetation cover occurred in the 1920s-1930s, the 1960s-1970s, and the early 21 st century. The reconstructed NDVI better reflected the drought climate in the study area.     

Response to climate change of different tree species and NDVI variation since 1923 in the middle arid region of Ningxia, China

The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is used extensively to describe vegetation cover and ecological environment change. The purpose of this study was to contrast the response of different tree species growing in the same habitat to climate change and retrieve past NDVI using tree-ring width data from tree cores collected from the transitional zone of Pinus tabulaeformis and Picea crassifolia in the Luoshan Mountains in the middle arid region of Ningxia. Correlation analysis indicated that radial growth of P. tabulaeformis is more sensitive to precipitation and temperature change than that of P. crassifolia. Natural factors such as water availability and heat at this elevation are more suited to the growth of P. crassifolia, and are more advantageous to its renewal and succession. P. crassifolia is probably the better of the two species for protecting the forest ecosystem and conserving water in the Luoshan desertification area. Ring width of P. crassifolia correlates significantly with average NDVI for April–May (r =0.641, p <0.01), and both of them are influenced positively by precipitation in April–May. The reconstructed NDVI for 1923–2007 shows the relatively low vegetation cover occurred in the 1920s–1930s, the 1960s–1970s, and the early 21st century. The reconstructed NDVI better reflected the drought climate in the study area.     

Intensified risk to ecosystem productivity under climate change in the arid/humid transition zone in northern China

Assessing the climate change risk faced by the ecosystems in the arid/humid transition zone(AHTZ) in northern China holds scientific significance to climate change adaptation. We simulated the net primary productivity(NPP) for four representative concentration pathways(RCPs) using an improved Lund-Potsdam-Jena model. Then a method was established based on the NPP to identify the climate change risk level. From the midterm period(2041–2070) to the long-term period(2071–2099), the risks indicated by the negative anomaly and the downward trend of the NPP gradually extended and increased. The higher the scenario emissions, the more serious the risk. In particular, under the RCP8.5 scenario, during 2071–2099, the total risk area would be 81.85%, that of the high-risk area would reach 54.71%. In this high-risk area, the NPP anomaly would reach –96.00±46.95 gC·m~(-2)·a~(-1), and the rate of change of the NPP would reach –3.56±3.40 gC·m~(-2)·a~(-1). The eastern plain of the AHTZ and the eastern grasslands of Inner Mongolia are expected to become the main risk concentration areas. Our results indicated that the management of future climate change risks requires the consideration of the synergistic effects of warming and intensified drying on the ecosystem.     

Variability of soils developed on migmatites in a part of the Middle Belt of Nigeria

In an attempt to elucidate the spatial variability of soils as a preliminary to detailed mapping, 100 sites within a single parent material stratum were sampled along a grid of parallel traverses. The data collected have been subjected to statistical analyses, notably determination of coefficient of variation (CV) and principal component analysis (PCA). These analyses indicate that the soils of the area of study display marked variability which does not correspond to the variability in parent material, that the spatial variations of soil chemical properties are mainly due to variations in both the clay and organic matter contents of the soils, and that textural characteristics may be used as differentiators to produce groups with precise edaphological meanings in this environment. Such groupings must, however, take cognizance of the considerable local variations due to anthropogenic factors.     

中国干湿格局对未来高排放情景下气候变化响应的敏感性

气候变化影响下干湿状况的区域分异格局如何变化是一个重要科学问题。基于参与耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的5个全球气候模式(GCM),预估了RCP 8.5情景下未来百年中国干湿区面积的变化趋势,分析了干湿格局变化的敏感地区以及对气候变化响应的敏感性。结果表明:未来干湿格局变化以湿润区显著减少、干湿过渡区显著扩张为主要特征,特别是半湿润区面积在远期(2070-2099年)相对基准期(1981-2010年)增加了28.69%。升温2℃～4℃条件下,全国发生干湿类型转变的面积从10.17%增加至13.72%,尤其在淮河流域南部,这里主要受未来潜在蒸散增加的影响,湿润区向南明显退缩从而转变为半湿润区。总体上,随着未来升温加剧,中国干湿格局对气候变化响应的敏感性将可能增强。