Comparison of spatial and aspatial logistic regression models for landmine risk mapping

Landmines continue to affect the lives of millions of people living in war-torn countries. One major challenge in humanitarian mine action (HMA) is finding new and integrated approaches to land release, which remains a slow and costly process. The use of geographic information systems (GIS) in HMA can improve the land release process by efficient mapping and prioritizing of landmine risk areas. This study explores the usage of aspatial and spatial regression techniques to construct a predictive geo-statistical model for landmine risk mapping in a small 160 km² municipality in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and a large 4500 km² region in Colombia. The first application of logistic geographically weighted regression to landmine risk mapping is presented. The results show that in the BiH study area, the effect of local parameters that influence the distribution of landmine risk varies significantly across the study area. Conversely, in the Colombia case study the effect of explanatory variables remains more homogeneous over the study area. We produced two landmine risk maps for each study area, based on aspatial and spatial regression models. Risk maps are classified into five classes, i.e. very low, low, medium, high, and very high risk. The landmine risk maps created through the usage of these innovative methodologies improve the assessment of risk and prioritization of the land release process in mine-contaminated areas, compared to existing approaches.     

Groundwater control on the suspended sediment load in the Na Borges River, Mallorca, Spain

Groundwater dominance has important effects on the hydrological and geomorphological characteristics of river systems. Low suspended sediment concentrations and high water clarity are expected because significant inputs of sediment-free spring water dilute the suspended sediment generated by storms. However, in many Mediterranean rivers, groundwater dominance is characterised by seasonal alternations of influent and effluent discharge involving significant variability on the sediment transport regimes. Such areas are often subject to soil and water conservation practices over the centuries that have reduced the sediment contribution from agricultural fields and favour subsurface flow to rivers. Moreover, urbanisation during the twentieth century has changed the catchment hydrology and altered basic river processes due to its ‘flashy’ regime. In this context, we monitored suspended sediment fluxes during a two-year period in the Na Borges River, a lowland agricultural catchment (319 km²) on the island of Mallorca (Balearic Islands). The suspended sediment concentration (SSC) was lower when the base flow index (i.e., relative proportion of baseflow compared to stormflow, BFI) was higher. Therefore, strong seasonal contrasts explain the high SSC coefficient of variation, which is clearly related to dilution effects associated with different groundwater and surface water seasonal interactions. A lack of correlation in the Q-SSC rating curves shows that factors other than discharge control sediment transport. As a result, at the event scale, multiple regressions illustrate that groundwater and surface water interactions are involved in the sedimentary response of flood events. In the winter, the stability of baseflow driven by groundwater contributions and agricultural and urban spills causes hydraulic variables (i.e., maximum discharge) to exert the most important control on events, whereas in the summer, it is necessary to accumulate important volumes of rainfall, creating a minimum of wet conditions in the catchment to activate hydrological pathways and deliver sediment to the drainage network. The BFI is also related to sediment delivery processes, as the loads are higher with lower BFI, corroborating the fact that most sediment movement is caused by stormflow and its related factors. Overall, suspended sediment yields were very low (i.e., < 1 t km^− 2 yr^− 1) at all measuring sites. Such values are the consequence of the limited sediment delivery attributable to soil conservation practices, low surface runoff coefficients and specific geomorphic features of groundwater-dominated rivers, such as low drainage density, low gradient, steep valley walls and flat valley floors.     

Relationships between sedimentary diatom assemblages and lakewater pH values in the Experimental Lakes Area

Relationships between sedimentary diatom assemblages and lakewater pH values from 36 lakes and experimentally acidified Lake 223, in the Experimental Lakes Area, were analyzed. The relationships were used to assign diatoms in the 36 lakes into pH preference groupings. Based on their regional distribution Cyclotella stelligera and Tabellaria flocculosa strain IIIp were categorized as pH indifferent, in comparison to other areas were they have been categorized as acidophilic. Two models were then applied to calculate transfer coefficients which were used to calculate diatom-inferred pH values for Lake 223. Index B and a multiple linear regression of the pH groupings yielded similar correlations (r² 0.82 and 0.84 respectively, p=0.0001). The multiple linear regression inferred a pH of 5.36 for acidified Lake 223 compared to a measured pH of 5.46.     

Assessing vegetation cover and biomass in restored erosion areas in Iceland using SPOT satellite data

Due to highly erodible volcanic soils and a harsh climate, livestock grazing in Iceland has led to serious soil erosion on about 40% of the country's surface. Over the last 100 years, various revegetation and restoration measures were taken on large areas distributed all over Iceland in an attempt to counteract this problem. The present research aimed to develop models for estimating percent vegetation cover (VC) and aboveground biomass (AGB) based on satellite data, as this would make it possible to assess and monitor the effectiveness of restoration measures over large areas at a fairly low cost. Models were developed based on 203 vegetation cover samples and 114 aboveground biomass samples distributed over five SPOT satellite datasets. All satellite datasets were atmospherically corrected, and digital numbers were converted into ground reflectance. Then a selection of vegetation indices (VIs) was calculated, followed by simple and multiple linear regression analysis of the relations between the field data and the calculated VIs.Best results were achieved using multiple linear regression models for both %VC and AGB. The model calibration and validation results showed that R² and RMSE values for most VIs do not vary very much. For percent VC, R² values range between 0.789 and 0.822, leading to RMSEs ranging between 15.89% and 16.72%. For AGB, R² values for low-biomass areas (AGB < 800 g/m²) range between 0.607 and 0.650, leading to RMSEs ranging between 126.08 g/m² and 136.38 g/m². The AGB model developed for all areas, including those with high biomass coverage (AGB > 800 g/m²), achieved R² values between 0.487 and 0.510, resulting in RMSEs ranging from 234 g/m² to 259.20 g/m². The models predicting percent VC generally overestimate observed low percent VC and slightly underestimate observed high percent VC. The estimation models for AGB behave in a similar way, but over- and underestimation are much more pronounced.These results show that it is possible to estimate percent VC with high accuracy based on various VIs derived from SPOT satellite data. AGB of restoration areas with low-biomass values of up to 800 g/m² can likewise be estimated with high accuracy based on various VIs derived from SPOT satellite data, whereas in the case of high biomass coverage, estimation accuracy decreases with increasing biomass values. Accordingly, percent VC can be estimated with high accuracy anywhere in Iceland, whereas AGB is much more difficult to estimate, particularly for areas with high-AGB variability.     

两种自动基流分割方法在干旱半干旱地区的对比研究

基流是河川径流的重要组成部分。在干旱半干旱地区,基流对于维持水源的稳定性及持续性、确定河流生态需水等方面具有重要作用。因此,基流分割结果的准确性至关重要。本文以黄河流域上游小流域为研究区,分别使用滑动最小值法和数字滤波法对典型年进行基流分割,然后用数字滤波法对1980-2014年日均径流进行基流分割,并分析基流的变化趋势。研究表明,数字滤波法在干旱半干旱地区具有较好的应用效果,滑动最小值法分割的基流结果偏小;在特定研究区的参数难以确定时,应结合两种方法的优点确定最佳的基流分割方案。研究区1980-2014年的平均基流指数为0.69,高于全国平均值0.26、西北诸河区的0.57及黄河区的0.43;趋势分析显示,研究区的年径流、基流、BFI的增长幅度分别为0.086 (m³/s)/10a、0.169 (m³/s)/10a、0.038/10a。MK趋势检验结果显示,年径流未通过10%的显著性检验,增长趋势不明显;基流和BFI分别通过了2.5%和1%的显著性检验,增长趋势显著。     

The use of high-resolution gridded climate data in the development of chironomid-based inference models from remote areas

The development of chironomid-based air temperature inference models in high latitude regions often relies on limited spatial coverage of meteorological data and/or on punctual measurements of water temperature at the time of sampling. The use of simple linear regression to relate air temperature and latitude was until recently the best method to characterize the air temperature gradient along a latitudinal gradient. However, recent studies have used high-resolution gridded climate data to develop new chironomid-based air temperature inference models. This innovative approach has, however, never been further analyzed to test its reliability. This study presents a method using ArcGIS^® to extract air temperatures from a high-resolution global gridded climate data set (New et al. 2002) and to incorporate these new data in a variety of chironomid-based air temperature inference models to test their performance. Results suggest that this method is reliable and produces better estimates of air temperature and will be helpful in the development of further quantitative air temperature inference models in remote areas.     

喀斯特地貌演化与喀斯特含水层特性

本文根据喀斯特含水层的结构、喀斯特地貌发育的动力过程,探讨不同的喀斯特地貌演化阶段及其相应的喀斯特含水层特征。     

Empirical models to predict the volumes of debris flows generated by recently burned basins in the western U.S.

Recently burned basins frequently produce debris flows in response to moderate-to-severe rainfall. Post-fire hazard assessments of debris flows are most useful when they predict the volume of material that may flow out of a burned basin. This study develops a set of empirically-based models that predict potential volumes of wildfire-related debris flows in different regions and geologic settings.The models were developed using data from 53 recently burned basins in Colorado, Utah and California. The volumes of debris flows in these basins were determined by either measuring the volume of material eroded from the channels, or by estimating the amount of material removed from debris retention basins. For each basin, independent variables thought to affect the volume of the debris flow were determined. These variables include measures of basin morphology, basin areas burned at different severities, soil material properties, rock type, and rainfall amounts and intensities for storms triggering debris flows. Using these data, multiple regression analyses were used to create separate predictive models for volumes of debris flows generated by burned basins in six separate regions or settings, including the western U.S., southern California, the Rocky Mountain region, and basins underlain by sedimentary, metamorphic and granitic rocks.An evaluation of these models indicated that the best model (the Western U.S. model) explains 83% of the variability in the volumes of the debris flows, and includes variables that describe the basin area with slopes greater than or equal to 30%, the basin area burned at moderate and high severity, and total storm rainfall. This model was independently validated by comparing volumes of debris flows reported in the literature, to volumes estimated using the model. Eighty-seven percent of the reported volumes were within two residual standard errors of the volumes predicted using the model. This model is an improvement over previous models in that it includes a measure of burn severity and an estimate of modeling errors. The application of this model, in conjunction with models for the probability of debris flows, will enable more complete and rapid assessments of debris flow hazards following wildfire.     

A simple method for estimating basin-scale groundwater discharge by vegetation in the basin and range province of Arizona using remote sensing information and geographic information systems

Groundwater is a vital water resource in the arid to semi-arid southwestern United States. Accurate accounting of inflows to and outflows from the groundwater system is necessary to effectively manage this shared resource, including the important outflow component of groundwater discharge by vegetation. A simple method for estimating basin-scale groundwater discharge by vegetation is presented that uses remote sensing data from satellites, geographic information systems (GIS) land cover and stream location information, and a regression equation developed within the Southern Arizona study area relating the Enhanced Vegetation Index from the MODIS sensors on the Terra satellite to measured evapotranspiration. Results computed for 16-day composited satellite passes over the study area during the 2000 through 2007 time period demonstrate a sinusoidal pattern of annual groundwater discharge by vegetation with median values ranging from around 0.3 mm per day in the cooler winter months to around 1.5 mm per day during summer. Maximum estimated annual volume of groundwater discharge by vegetation was between 1.4 and 1.9 billion m³ per year with an annual average of 1.6 billion m³. A simplified accounting of the contribution of precipitation to vegetation greenness was developed whereby monthly precipitation data were subtracted from computed vegetation discharge values, resulting in estimates of minimum groundwater discharge by vegetation. Basin-scale estimates of minimum and maximum groundwater discharge by vegetation produced by this simple method are useful bounding values for groundwater budgets and groundwater flow models, and the method may be applicable to other areas with similar vegetation types.     

基于Alpha Shape算法的分散式乡村聚落形状划分及其形成研究——以米脂县龙镇为例

为了定量划分分散式乡村聚落的形状类型并探究其形成原因,以陕北黄土丘陵沟壑区米脂县龙镇为例,尝试使用Alpha Shape算法对聚落形状进行提取,通过Boyce-Clark指数计算并划分聚落形状类型,最后结合多元线性回归和回归树的方法探究影响聚落形状的因素。结果表明：100 m滚动半径下,Alpha Shape算法能够提取76.1%聚落的精确轮廓;研究区乡村聚落形状类型可以分为块状矩形及其变种、延伸形、哑铃形和串珠形、带状矩形及其组合、线形5种,Boyce-Clark指数依次增加;高程和Boyce-Clark指数呈显著正相关,水资源可获取性与Boyce-Clark指数在高海拔地区呈负相关,聚落面积与Boyce-Clark指数先呈负相关后呈正相关。研究结果可为分散式聚落生活空间边界的划定提供参考,增进对黄土丘陵沟壑区分散式聚落形态的认识。     

Downstream hydrologic and geomorphic effects of large dams on American rivers

The hydrology and geomorphology of large rivers in America reflect the pervasive influence of an extensive water control infrastructure including more than 75,000 dams. One hundred thirty-seven of the very large dams, each storing 1.2 km³ (10⁶ acre feet) of water or more, alter the flows of every large river in the country. The hydrologic effects of these very large dams emerge from an analysis of the stream gage records of 72 river reaches organized into 36 pairs. One member of each pair is an unregulated reach above a dam, whereas the other is a regulated reach downstream from the same structure. Comparison of the regulated and unregulated reaches shows that very large dams, on average, reduce annual peak discharges 67% (in some individual cases up to 90%), decrease the ratio of annual maximum/mean flow 60%, decrease the range of daily discharges 64%, increase the number of reversals in discharge by 34%, and reduce the daily rates of ramping as much as 60%. Dams alter the timing of high and low flows and change the timing of the yearly maximum and minimum flows, in some cases by as much as half a year. Regional variation in rivers, dams, and responses are substantial: rivers in the Great Plains and Ozark/Ouachita regions have annual maximum/mean flow ratios that are 7 times greater than ratios for rivers in the Pacific Northwest. At the same time, the ratio of storage capacity/mean annual water yield for dams is greatest for Interior Western, Ozark/Ouachita and Great Plains rivers and least for Pacific Northwest streams. Thus, in many cases those rivers with the highest annual variability have the greatest potential impact from dams because structures can exert substantial control over downstream hydrology. The hydrologic changes by dams have fostered dramatic geomorphic differences between regulated and unregulated reaches. When compared to similar unregulated reaches, regulated reaches have 32% larger low flow channels, 50% smaller high flow channels, 79% less active flood plain area, and 3.6 times more inactive flood plain area. Dams also affect the area of active areas, the functional surfaces that are functionally connected to the present regime of the river. Regulated reaches have active areas that are 72 smaller than the active areas of similar unregulated reaches. The geomorphic complexity (number of separate functional surfaces per unit of channel length) is 37% less in regulated reaches. Reductions in the size of hydrologically active functional surfaces are greatest in rivers in the Great Plains and least in Eastern streams. The largest differences in geomorphic complexity are in interior western rivers. The shrunken, simplified geomorphology of regulated large rivers has had direct effects on riparian ecology, producing spatially smaller, less diverse riparian ecosystems compared to the larger, more complex ecosystems along unregulated reaches of rivers.     

Modeling urban leaf area index with AISA+ hyperspectral data

This study used simple multiple regression to model urban leaf area index (LAI) in Terre Haute, Indiana, USA as a function of AISA+ hyperspectral radiance and its derivative features. Regression R² values ranging from 0.27 to 0.73 were obtained from the various models. Features appearing most frequently in the models included radiance at 0.727, 0.753, 0.848, 0.870, 0.900 and 0.917 μm. The best single predictor of LAI was the absolute difference in radiance between 0.777 and 0.673 μm. The best models performed well at low and intermediate LAI levels, but were less accurate with LAI values between 5.0 and 8.0.     

Chemical denudation in arctic-alpine Latnjavagge (Swedish Lapland) in relation to regolith as assessed by radio magnetotelluric-geophysical profiles

In Latnjavagge, a 9-km² drainage basin with homogeneous lithology in periglacial northern Swedish Lapland, water balance, water chemistry and radio magnetotelluric geophysical investigations along selected profiles were integrated with assessment of regolith thickness as well as of ground frost conditions within the basin. In combination with direct field observations, the geophysical profiles demonstrated presence of relatively thin regolith in most of the investigated area, yet in some parts, the bedrock was located deeper and locally was not detected at 40-m depth. TDS values of the water were generally very low. The areas that contributed with the lowest ion concentrations were cold and had a thin regolith, whereas there were higher concentrations in water that drained radiation exposed slopes with earlier thaw and thicker regolith. The low resistivities found along the profiles in the geophysical investigations in combination with the relatively higher TDS values found in related runoff and subsurface water samples showed that larger volumes of ice-rich frozen ground were not found along the investigated profiles in late August.     

QUADRATIC PLS REGRESSION

We treat here an extension of linear PLS regression to include regression on quadratic PLS components.The quadratic regression can be viewed as a natural extension of linear PLS regression to quadratic PLSaccording to the H-principle of mathematical modelling.The numerical implementation is treated indetail.It is shown that this approach can be used for models with large numbers of variables.Somemodelling strategies are discussed depending on the purpose of the modelling.Applications of thisapproach are treated.     

基于GIS的土壤全氮空间分布估算——以江西省兴国县为例

运用GIS的空间分析技术和DEM,在区域范围内,可以表征基于母岩和地形因子的土壤-景观模型。本次研究根据兴国县151个样点数据,分析TN和地形因子的相关关系,建立回归模型,进行估算。结果表明:表层土壤中TN含量平均值为1.06g/kg,千枚岩发育的土壤中TN的平均含量最高,为1.35g/kg ;砂页岩发育的土壤中TN的平均含量最低,为0.88g/kg 。空间分布上:TN含量在0.5g/kg~1.0g/kg的面积最大,为1580km²,TN含量在2.0g/kg以上的面积最小,为127km²。地形变量中坡向对TN含量影响最大,TN含量和母岩、海拔、坡向存在着正相关关系,坡度和TN含量的相关关系不明显。利用回归分析模型和DEM(30m×30m),估算TN的空间分布,R²为0.637。     

黑河上游多年基流变化及其原因分析

利用递归数字滤波法分割黑河上游主要水文站点的基流量,用移动平均、曼-肯德尔（Mann-Kendall）突变检验,小波分析方法分析研究区多年基流变化特点,并对基流影响因子进行分析。结果显示：黑河上游祁连、扎马什克、莺落峡三站多年平均基流指数均大于0．4;祁连与莺落峡多年基流量呈上升趋势,二者都在1979年发生增加到显著增...     

Changes in glacial lakes and glaciers of post-1986 in the Poiqu River basin, Nyalam, Xizang (Tibet)

Glacial lakes and glaciers are sensitive indicators of recent climate change. In the Poiqu River basin of southern Tibet, 60–100 km NW of Mt. Everest, Landsat imagery defines post-1986 changes in the size and distribution of both glacial lakes and glaciers. Total area of glaciers in the 229-km² drainage area has decreased by 20%. The number of glacial lakes with areas in excess of 0.020 km² has increased by 11%, and the total area of glacial lakes has increased by 47%. The areas of typical large glacial lakes of the area (Galongco, Gangxico, and Cirenmaco) have increased by 104, 118, and 156%, respectively, and these increases are confirmed by field investigations.Comparing the 1986 data, the area of glaciers in the basin headwaters has decreased by 46.18 km² to a present total area of 183.12 km², an annual rate of change of 3.30 km²/year. Trends indicate that the total area of glaciers will continue to decrease and that both the numbers and areas of glacial lakes will continue to increase. Accompanying these trends will be an increased risk of debris flows, formed by entrainment of sediment in glacial-outburst floods and in surges from both failure and avalanche- and landslide-induced overtopping of moraine dams. Based on both the local and world-wide history of catastrophes from flows of these origins, disaster mitigation must be planned and appropriate engineering countermeasures put in place as soon as possible.     

低空遥感无人机影像反演河道流量

河道流量在维持水圈系统稳定性、估算国家水能资源可开发量等方面具有重要作用。卫星遥感受其分辨率限制很难准确反演中小河流流量,近地面遥感流量计算方法及传统水文测流方法技术复杂、设备昂贵、测算效率低,限制了其在无资料区、灾害突发事件非接触式应急监测等方面的广泛应用。为此,在充分吸收国内外遥感反演河道流量方法优点的基础上,基于低空遥感无人机（UAV）影像,提出了一种适用于各类尺度河流的高效、非接触、简易快速反演河道流量的方法。该方法提供了有、无地面实测大断面两类情况下流量反演途径,通过无人机影像生成点云和表面高程（DSM）,基于点云和DSM获取水面宽、糙率、水面比降以及水上大断面信息,采用水力学方法计算河道流量。并根据地面336组野外站点实测数据验证了方法的精度,进一步分析了无地面实测大断面情况下的流量计算误差。结果表明,反演流量在高值区略高于实测流量,可以满足灾害应急监测流量精度需求（R ²= 0.997,RMSE = 4.55 m ³/s）;无地面实测大断面资料而进行概化时,流量计算误差随水位升高、河宽增大而减小,最大累积误差为最大过水流量的8.28%,误差主要来自于水位低、河宽小、流量小的过水断面底部。考虑到研究区大断面多样性受限,而人类活动影响下的河底断面复杂多样,未来尚需进一步研究提高近河底处大断面概化精度,以提高无地面实测大断面情况下的流量反演精度。本文利用无人机遥感影像反演河道流量的思路可为灾害应急监测提供快速流量监测的新途径,也可为无资料地区遥感水文测站的建立提供重要参考依据。     

Spatially constrained clustering of ecological units to facilitate the design of integrated water monitoring networks in the St. Lawrence Basin

Water monitoring networks are generally classified into surface water, precipitation, groundwater or water quality monitoring networks. The design of these networks typically occurs in isolation from each other. We present a regionalization approach to identify homogeneous subregions of large basins that are suitable as areas for the optimization of an integrated water monitoring network. The study area, which comprises a portion of the St. Lawrence Basin, was spatially divided using ecological units. For each ecological unit, 21 attributes were derived including both environmental and hydrological indicators. A spatially constrained regionalization technique was applied to define the final regions. A scree plot was used to determine the number of regions. The sensitivity of the technique to the correlation in the attribute data was removed by utilizing principal component analysis to reduce correlation between attribute data. During regionalization, the component values were weighted by their proportion of the total variance explained. The four regions in the final configuration had areas from 19% to 31% of the total area, 63,597 km². For the St. Lawrence Basin, this approach is effective for defining homogeneous regions that can be used in further research on the optimization of integrated water monitoring networks. The approach is portable to other regions and can incorporate any set of attribute data that is valuable to the regionalization objective.     

基于时序Landsat的油区环境要素时空演变特征分析——以克拉玛依油区为例

戈壁荒漠区生态环境脆弱,工业化进程中的环境风险高,及时获取工业化进程中基础环境要素演变有助于监控潜在的环境风险。以克拉玛依油区为例,通过遥感获取更大区域的植被和陆表水分布时序特征,分析工业化进程中区域环境要素时空变化特征及其对周边区域环境的影响。利用1977-2016年Landsat和MSS数据,基于NDVI和湿度反演陆表植被和水域覆盖,通过回归分析和复现率获取植被和陆表水分布的时序特征,结合区域内月平均陆表温度和降水信息,分析环境要素时空演变趋势。结果表明：城镇工业区植被覆盖总体改善,存在局部的植被覆盖退化区;研究区内大区域植被覆盖呈明显持续改善,陆表水分布环境稳定,区域环境要素的时空演变表现出不同的阶段性特征;区域环境要素时空演变的空间分布格局体现与人类活动的高相关性,人类活动是区域内环境要素改变的重要影响因素。城镇工业化进程中局部的环境要素退化难以避免,合理规划人类活动,可以促进大区域环境与工业化进程的协调发展,遥感技术可以监测工业化进程与区域环境演变的相关性。