黄土高原地区土地覆盖变化对气候的反馈作用数值模拟

区域尺度土地覆盖变化是自然变化和人类活动共同驱动的结果,同时又对区域气候环境产生反馈。利用欧洲中值数值预报中心（ECMWF） ERA-Interim再分析资料,驱动RegCM4.5区域气候模式,进行了两个时间段（1980-2014、2005-2014）的数值模拟试验。以1：250 000土地利用图为基础,结合植被图、土壤图制作具有高精度、极强现势性的土地覆盖资料,区域模式中陆面过程模式采用BATS,模拟了现实的土地覆盖改变对气候要素的影响,分析了黄土高原地区土地覆盖变化对气候的反馈作用。结果表明：（1） RegCM4.5不但能够较好描述黄土高原气温、降水的时间空间分布特征,也能够模拟土地覆盖变化对黄土高原局地气候变化的反馈。（2）不同土地覆盖变化特征对气候反馈作用不同,荒漠化会引起局部地区气温升高和降水减少,并通过正反馈机制,致使自然植被生长发育受阻;水域旱化会导致夏季气温升高和降水增加,从而加剧干旱洪涝灾害风险;草地覆盖增加会导致春夏季降水量与气温的降低,秋冬季降水量与气温升高。（3）土地覆盖变化对气温与降水的影响在夏季较强。该研究可促进对黄土高原生态治理环境效应的理解,也能深化对土地利用-气候变化之间互馈作用的过程认识,并为区域生态建设对策选择提供参考。     

A Landsat-based evaluation of lake water clarity in Maine lakes

Temporal trends in water clarity and land-use/land-cover (LULC), as well as the relationship between changes in water clarity and LULC, were analyzed using water clarity values extracted from Landsat images from 1986 to 2008, acquired for east-central Maine. Of 40 lakes identified using satellite imagery, our analysis found one lake with a significant decrease in water clarity. In a second data-set, with 99 lakes, we identified two lakes with a significant increase in water clarity. Analyses of the relationship between temporal changes in the water clarity and LULC did not identify any clear, consistent, relationships between changes in the water quality variables and LULC. Overall, the results of this study aid in the identification of the relationship between water clarity and LULC, and identify temporal changes in water clarity. The findings of this study support the previous research that demonstrates the ability of satellite imagery to be used in assessments of water clarity, thus enabling evaluation at broader spatial scales and longer temporal scales than assessments that rely solely on ground-based data.     

近10 a青藏高原干湿状况及其与植被变化的关系研究

植被是陆地生态系统中最重要、同时也是气候变化最敏感的组分,而高原植被系统行为往往比其他地区能更早、更明显地预兆全球变化。探讨青藏高原区域干湿状况及其与植被变化的关系有助于更好地认识和理解陆地生态系统对气候变化的响应和适应机理,对高原生态安全屏障计划的实施以及全球生态建设有重要意义。基于地面气象台站观测数据和MODIS EVI数据集,2001-2010年生长季干湿状况和植被覆盖的时空变化格局,对青藏高原干湿状况与植被覆盖变化的关系进行了分析与探讨。结果表明：（1）高原整体上呈现由东南向西北渐干的趋势,干旱及半干旱区占高原总面积的67%。10 a间高原有25%的区域在逐渐变干,且南北差异明显;（2）高原生长季EVI的空间格局与干湿格局相近,且东西部界线分明。10 a间高原植被活动由东南向西北整体上呈现“退化-增强-变化不大”的规律;（3）区域干湿程度对EVI空间格局差异有显著影响,特别是在占高原面积44%的半干旱区,两者相关性最大。人为干扰对高原EVI变化的作用不明显,但EVI与干湿程度相关性相对偏小的区域人为干扰程度往往较大;（4）从高原96个气象站点生长季[EVI]对干燥度指数变化的敏感性来看,敏感程度较大的气象站点主要集中在高原东北部、高原中部及雅鲁藏布江中上游区域,60%以上的气象站点随着干旱程度的加深植被呈退化趋势。     

Carbon Sequestration Potential of the Forest Ecosystems in the Western Ghats,a Global Biodiversity Hotspot

Global warming with the burgeoning anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (400 parts per million from 280 ppm CO₂ emissions of pre-industrial era) has altered climate, eroding the ecosystem productivity and sustenance of water, affecting the livelihood of people. The anthropogenic activities such as burning fossil fuel, power generation, agriculture, industry, polluting water bodies and urban activities are responsible for increasing GHG footprint of which 72% constitute CO₂. GHG footprint needs to be in balance with sequestration of carbon to sustain ecosystem functions. Forests are the major carbon sinks (about 45%) that aid in mitigating global warming. The current research focusses on the carbon budgeting through quantification of emissions and sinks in the forest ecosystems and changes in climatic conditions of Western Ghats. This would help in evolving appropriate mitigation strategies toward sustainable management of forests and mitigate impacts of global warming. The land-use land-cover (LULC) dynamics are the prime driver of climate change due to the loss of carbon sequestration potential as well as emissions. The Western Ghats are one among 36 global biodiversity hotspots and forests in this region sequester atmospheric carbon, which aid in moderating the global climate and sustaining water to ensure water and food security in the peninsular India. Assessment of LULC dynamics using temporal remote sensing data shows the decline of evergreen forest by 5% with an increase in agriculture, plantations and built-up area. The interior or intact forests have declined by 10%, and they are now confined to protected areas. The simulation of likely changes indicates that the region will have only 10% evergreen cover and 17% agriculture, 40% plantations and 5% built-up. Quantification of carbon reveals that the WG forest ecosystem holds 1.23 MGg (million gigagrams or Gt) in vegetation and soils. The annual incremental carbon is about 37,507.3 Gg, (or 37.5 million tons, Mt) and the highest in the forests of Karnataka part of WG. Simulation of the likely changes in carbon content indicates the loss of 0.23 MGg (2018–2031) carbon sequestration potential under business as usual scenario. The conservation scenario depicts an increase in carbon sequestration potential of WG forests with the protection. Sequestered carbon in WG is about INR 100 billion ($1.4 billion) at carbon trading of INR 2142 ($30) per tonne. Large-scale land-cover changes leading to deforestation has contributed to an increase in mean temperature by 0.5°C and decline in rainy days, which necessitates evolving prudent landscape management strategies involving all stakeholders for conservation of ecologically fragile WG. This will enhance the ability of forests to sequester atmospheric carbon and climate moderation, with the sustenance of ecosystem goods and services.

     

Identification of land cover/land use changes in the greater area of the Preveza peninsula in Greece using Landsat satellite data

This study investigates the Land Use & Land Cover (LULC) changes in a coastal area of the southwest part of Epirus region, called Preveza, situated in North-western Greece. Remote sensing imagery coming from the Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) sensor on board at the Landsat 7 satellite platform is used for this purpose. More specifically, we identified LULC changes in this environmentally sensitive coastal area, using Landsat image scenes for the dates of June 19th, 2000 and July 22nd, 2009. During this period, there was an increasing tourist activity and a high growth in the construction sector of the study area. The land-use changes were identified, examining several vegetation indices and band combinations, along with the implementation of different well-known classification techniques. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Brightness Index (BI) have proved to be the most suitable indices to successfully identify discrete land surface classes for this study area. Regarding the classifiers, a series of traditional and modern algorithms were tested. The Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and the Support Vector Machines (SVMs) gave improved results in comparison to other more traditional classification techniques. The best overall accuracy for the study area was achieved with the SVM classifier and reached 96.25% and 97.15% on the dates of June 19th, 2000 and July 22nd, 2009 respectively. The classification results depicted notable urbanization, small deforestation and important LULC changes in the agriculture sector, indicating a rapid coastal environment change in the region of interest.     

Assessment of land-use and land-cover changes from 1965 to 2014 in Tam Giang-Cau Hai Lagoon,central Vietnam

This study integrates the use of multi-source and multi-resolution remote sensing, topographic and field-based datasets to quantify land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes along a coastal stretch of Thua Thien Hue Province (central Vietnam). The LULC change analysis involves the Tam Giang-Cau Hai lagoon, the largest lagoon system in Southeast Asia, which is running nearly 70 km along the coast and having about 22,000 ha of water surface.The LULC change analysis was performed by computer-aided visual interpretation for 5 years (1965, 1989, 2000, 2006 and 2014) using satellite imagery from LANDSAT MSS, TM, ETM+ and 8, ASTER and SPOT5. National topographic maps were also used for the 1965 and 2000 years.To adequately represent the LULC features and peculiarities of central Vietnam coastal areas, an adapted CORINE Land Cover nomenclature was used where new 3rd and 4th level classes were adopted. Due to their intrinsic relative high spatial and radiometric resolution, SPOT5 images from 2006 were assumed as a reference for interpretation keys and first delineation. Changes were mapped by editing those vectors representing features which underwent LULC change prior or after 2006. Spatial and temporal changes were analyzed by post-classification approach and validated by ground truth information. High detail object-based classification was finally performed to infer the capability of medium spatial resolution imagery for extracting cadastral scale pond maps. The accuracy of classification was checked by a polygon by polygon comparison with an existing aquaculture facility inventory.Five LULC maps were obtained by applying a legend of 21 classes including two newly defined: “Aquaculture ponds” and “Mangrove forest”. The overall classification accuracy of the LULC map is 85% while the KHAT statistics 0.81 for the year 2006. Accuracy of the object-based aquaculture facilities classification is 84% or better for the SPOT5 imagery and 47.9% for the ASTER imagery. The study provides a synoptic LULC representation for the largest lagoon system of Southeast Asia and delivers quantitative estimates of main changes occurred during the last 50 years. Moreover, it reveals the adaptability of the CORINE Land Cover method outside European environment. Finally, SPOT5 provides good results to map aquaculture features at cadastral scale, even if in some circumstances (e.g. tidal areas), the integration with higher spatial resolution multispectral sensors should be envisaged.     

A disappearing biome? Reconsidering land-cover change in the Brazilian savanna

The Cerrado , the tropical savanna covering 22% of Brazil's territory, or approximately 1.783 million km², has suffered significant human impacts during the past three decades. This paper re-examines estimates of Cerrado vegetation change dynamics using high-resolution satellite remote sensing data from an area of interest extracted from eastern Mato Grosso State. This region has undergone a high degree of typical agricultural development since the early 1970s. Results indicate significant loss of original vegetation as well as high levels of regeneration, suggesting Cerrado vegetation may be more resilient to human impacts than catastrophic estimations suggest. The paper concludes with a critical review of Cerrado land-cover change studies and the implications of evidence for vegetation regeneration, land-cover dynamism and land-use intensification, paying particular attention to spatial scale and research methods. The discussion concludes that Cerrado land-cover change studied at a higher resolution and larger scales (smaller area) is required to represent more effectively the complexity of land conversion for better assessment of human impacts and environmental policy.     

Land desertification and restoration in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is characterized by high population growth, degraded and fragile nat-ural ecosystems, and a limited amount of arable lands. It is one of the most water-sc...     

长江三角洲各自然季节降水趋势

本文按不同自然季节分析长江三角洲各季降水的变化,根据降水异常年出现的规律,对公元2000年前各季的降水变化趋势作了展望。     

Interdecadal fluctuation of dry and wet climate boundaries in China in the past 50 years

Based on the mean yearly precipitation and the total yearly evaporation data of 295 meteorological stations in China in 1951-1999, the aridity index is calculated in this paper. According to the aridity index, the climatic regions in China are classified into three types, namely, arid region, semi-arid region and humid region. Dry and wet climate boundaries in China fluctuate markedly and differentiate greatly in each region in the past 50 years. The fluctuation amplitudes are 20-400 km in Northeast China, 40-400 km in North China, 30-350 km in the eastern part of Northwest China and 40-370 km in Southwest China. Before the 1980s (including 1980), the climate tended to be dry in Northeast China and North China, to be wet in the eastern part of Northwest China and very wet in Southwest China. Since the 1990s there have been dry signs in Southwest China, the eastern part of Northwest China and North China. The climate becomes wetter in Northeast China. Semi-arid region is the transitional zone between humid and arid regions, the monsoon edge belt in China, and the susceptible region of environmental evolution. At the end of the 1960s dry and wet climate in China witnessed abrupt changes, changing wetness into dryness. Dry and wet climate boundaries show the fluctuation characteristics of the whole shifts and the opposite fluctuations of eastward, westward, southward and northward directions. The fluctuations of climatic boundaries and the dry and wet variations of climate have distinctive interdecadal features.     

土地覆被变化与管理对土壤动物群落演变的耦合效应

以黑河中游人工绿洲边缘天然草地及其转变的人工梭梭灌木林（21 a）、人工杨树林（28 a）、人工樟子松林（33 a）和农田（开垦27 a和100 a）为研究对象,基于6种研究样地中小型土壤动物群落的调查数据,采用多变量排序和通径分析等方法,研究了土地利用/覆被变化与管理措施对中小型土壤动物群落及其主要类群演变的耦合效应。主要结果是:①将天然草地转变为未实施管理措施的人工梭梭灌木林后并未引起土壤动物群落组成、数量和物种多样性的显著变化,而转变为实施管理措施的杨树和樟子松人工林及农田后,导致了土壤动物群落组成、数量和物种多样性的变异,证实了土地覆被变化对中小型土壤动物群落的作用及其效应受管理措施的强烈调控。②土壤动物群落的演变过程受土地覆被变化与灌溉和施肥管理的共同影响,其中灌溉的贡献率最大,是关键驱动因子。③不同土壤动物类群对土地覆被变化和管理耦合作用的响应不同。灌溉对跳虫、甲螨和革螨的个体数量和物种丰富度的直接影响和总效应最大;施肥对辐螨的个体数量和物种丰富度的直接影响和总效应最大;灌溉和施肥对稀有类群的个体数量和物种丰富度的直接影响和总效应均较大,具同等重要的作用。结论是,土地覆被变化与管理耦合作用通过改变土壤水文和生态环境条件驱动了中小型土壤动物群落的演变过程。     

Interdecadal fluctuation of dry and wet climate boundaries in China in the past 50 years

Based on the mean yearly precipitation and the total yearly evaporation data of 295 meteorological stations in China in 1951–1999, the aridity index is calculated in this paper. According to the aridity index, the climatic regions in China are classified into three types, namely, arid region, semi-arid region and humid region. Dry and wet climate boundaries in China fluctuate markedly and differentiate greatly in each region in the past 50 years. The fluctuation amplitudes are 20–400 km in Northeast China, 40–400 km in North China, 30–350 km in the eastern part of Northwest China and 40–370 km in Southwest China. Before the 1980s (including 1980), the climate tended to be dry in Northeast China and North China, to be wet in the eastern part of Northwest China and very wet in Southwest China. Since the 1990s there have been dry signs in Southwest China, the eastern part of Northwest China and North China. The climate becomes wetter in Northeast China. Semi-arid region is the transitional zone between humid and arid regions, the monsoon edge belt in China, and the susceptible region of environmental evolution. At the end of the 1960s dry and wet climate in China witnessed abrupt changes, changing wetness into dryness. Dry and wet climate boundaries show the fluctuation characteristics of the whole shifts and the opposite fluctuations of eastward, westward, southward and northward directions. The fluctuations of climatic boundaries and the dry and wet variations of climate have distinctive interdecadal features.     

Coupled impact of decadal precipitation and evapotranspiration on peatland degradation in the Zoige basin,China

ABSTRACT

This study quantified the temporal properties of precipitation and actual evapotranspiration (ETa) in the Zoige basin of the Yellow River source region, China during the 1967–2011 period, as well as their influence to the area reduction of peatland. We extracted areas of different land-use and land-cover (LULC) types and obtained daily precipitation data. Then, we calculated annual precipitation (AP) and specific cumulative precipitation (SCP), which is the sum of precipitation to the date when an image was taken, and showed that the peatland areas were strongly affected by SCP. Using a modified Penman–Monteith equation, we calculated ETa for each LULC type and the area-weighted ones to show that the area-weighted total ETa was mainly contributed from grassland and peatland, which was between 450 and 550 mm. Temporal trends of the ratio of SCP to evapotranspiration showed that precipitation was generally greater than evapotranspiration rate not only during the summer but also over the 1967–2011 period. This trend failed to completely explain the continuous decrease of peatland area in the Zoige basin in decades. The draining effect of artificial ditches and natural gullies might play an additional role in causing peatland degradation but requires further process-based studies.     

Tourism,forest conversion,and land transformations in the Angkor basin,Cambodia

The Angkor basin of Cambodia, the site of the great Angkor temple complex, has experienced explosive tourism growth since the 1993 onset of national political stability and renewed international investment, which in turn has driven increasing demand for water, wood, and biomass fuel, and rapid and extensive land-use and land-cover change. We use multi-temporal Landsat imagery (1989–2005) to describe the rate and extent of land-cover change throughout the Angkor basin. While 50% of the landscape remained in rice agriculture it is notable that a larger proportion of the area was deforested (23.4%) than experienced forest regrowth (4.9%). Most forest loss occurred between the Angkor temple complex and Phnom Kulen National Park, and was due in part to charcoal production to serve the tourist industry, and also conversion to permanent agriculture. The small area of forest increase was concentrated along the eastern boundary of the main Angkor complex. The interplay among global (tourism, climate), regional (national policies, large-river management), and local (construction and agriculture, energy and water sources to support the tourism industry) factors drives a distinctive but complex pattern of land-use and land-cover change.     

Start, end and dry spells of the growing season in semi-arid southern Zimbabwe

Smallholder agriculture in semi-arid Zimbabwe is dependent on the seasonal characteristics of rainfall. The determination of start, end and length of the growing season, and the pattern of dry spells during the season is useful information for planning land preparation and planting activities. This study was designed to assess whether there has been any changes in the start, end and length of growing season and the pattern of 14 and 21 day dry spells during the season. Daily rainfall data were collected from five meteorological stations located in southern Zimbabwe. Results indicated that no significant changes in the start, end and subsequent length of growing season occurred over the past 50-74 years. There was no significant change in the number of wet days per season over the period reviewed. There is a high probability of 14 and 21 day dry spells during the peak rainfall months. The relationship between start and end of growing season is stronger as aridity increases. We conclude that growing seasons have not changed significantly over the past 50-74 years in southern Zimbabwe. As smallholder agriculture continues to be affected by dry spells and droughts, there is scope in exploring rainwater management technologies in rainfed cropping systems.     

自然干燥度和实际干燥度及其在气候工作中的应用

本文提出了“自然干燥度”和“实际干燥度”的概念,并将两者应用于甘肃黄土高原和河西走廓绿洲的气候植被类型划分,结果表明:后者确定的上述两个地区的气候植被带,与各自的自然景观大致相符合。     

1981-2010年气候变化和人类活动对内蒙古地区植被动态影响的定量研究

基于GIMMS NDVI以及MODIS NDVI数据,分析内蒙古地区1981-2010年的植被变化趋势,并结合气候、社会经济数据,以旗县为单位定量分析气候变化和人类活动对植被变化的影响,结果表明：①1981-2010年间,内蒙古地区植被变化具有典型的空间异质性,其中植被显著增加区域主要集中在西南部的阿拉善盟、鄂尔多斯市以及东部通辽市等地区,显著减少区域主要集中在北部的锡林郭勒盟以及东北部的呼伦贝尔市的部分地区;②对于植被显著增加区域,人类活动作用的影响面积最大,其次为气候因素,气候与人类活动的耦合作用也对植被增加有一定显著影响;内蒙古西部降雨量的增加、围封禁牧政策的实施以及农作物播种面积的增加为驱动植被增加的主要因素;③对于植被显著减少区域,人类活动的作用略大于气候因素;内蒙古中东部地区降雨减少以及近10年来部分旗县风速的增加是导致植被显著减少的重要气候因素;虽然人工造林、农作物播种面积会增加局部植被盖度,但在县域尺度不足以抵消干旱对植被生长的不利影响,反而会导致区域植被退化。     

新疆于田绿洲荒漠交错带土地利用变化的社会驱动力研究

 以新疆于田绿洲为例,在遥感手段对图形分析的基础之上，从景观特征上为于田绿洲土地利用变化的具体表现提供空间分析功能。结合多年的调查数据和统计资料，通过研究区遥感分类影像获得的不同土地利用类型的面积变化和转移趋势，运用SPSS软件获得于田绿洲荒漠交错带土地利用变化的综合驱动力方程，包括经济发展、人口增长、和政治经济政策等个方面。获得了影响该研究区土地利用变化的社会影响因子。结果表明，20世纪90年代以来于田地区人口的增长是土地利用/覆盖变化最主要驱动力因素，其次是牲畜头数的增长以及采樵量的变化。     

Whose knowledge matters in climate change adaptation? Perceived and measured rainfall trends during the last half century in south‐western Tanzania

Parts of eastern Africa have experienced substantial climatic variability and extremes during the last few decades. Here we explore the extent to which local place‐based knowledge is used and is relevant to understanding and appropriately responding to place‐based climate variability and change (specifically rainfall) in an area of considerable rainfall variability in south‐western Tanzania. Primary data were collected using focus group discussions and household questionnaire surveys, and secondary data obtained from government institutions. Various changes associated with the frequency, intensity and consistency of rainfall during the period 1960 to 2014 are explored. Findings indicate that knowledge and perceptions associated with climate operate at a local level, and that these are not necessarily applicable to neighbouring regions. Smallholder farmers in the Great Ruaha River Sub‐Basin rely on incremental adaptations of agricultural practices, in response to climatic stresses which have long‐term implications. We argue that incremental adaptations ought to be supplemented by more transformative changes of existing agricultural practices, such as using more climate‐adapted crops and livestock. Moreover, caution is required when examining human perceptions and responses to climate variability and change at the site‐specific scale, as such findings may not necessarily be applicable to broader regions in all cases.