Seismotectonics of the Papua New Guinea—Solomon Islands region

Earthquakes for the period 1964–1973 are relocated by the method of Joint Hypocenter Determination in order better to resolve the configuration and the structure of the New Guinea—New Britain—Solomon Islands region. Focal mechanism solutions are integrated with the seismicity and interpreted closely with it. A zone of subduction exists beneath New Britain and the Solomon Islands, a zone of left-lateral strike-slip movement extends from New Ireland to New Guinea. The zone of seismicity in northern New Guinea has developed as a result of a continent—island-arc collision in late Oligocene—Miocene times and does not exhibit a well-developed inclined seismic zone. It is proposed that plate tectonics theory does not apply rigorously, but slip-line field theory allows the presentation of a new geodynamic model for this region.     

Static and dynamic fault parameters of the Saitama earthquake of July 1, 1968

The source mechanism of the Saitama earthquake (36.07°N,139.40°E, M_s = 5.4) of July 1, 1968, is studied on the basis of P-wave first motion, aftershock, long-period surface-wave data and low-magnification long-period seismograms recorded in the nearfield. A precise location of the aftershocks is made using P and S—P time data obtained by a micro-earthquake observatory network. The synthetic near-field seismograms based on the Haskell model are directly compared with the observed near-field seismograms for wave form and amplitude to determine the dynamic fault parameters. The results obtained are as follows: source geometry, reverse dip slip with considerable right-lateral strike-slip component; dip direction, N6°E; dip angle 30°; fault dimension, 10 × 6 km²; rupture velocity, 3.4 km/sec in the direction S30°E; average dislocation, 92 cm; average dislocation velocity, 92 cm/sec; seismic moment, 1.9 · 10²⁵ dyn-cm; stress drop, 100 bar. The effective stress is about the same as the stress drop. For major earthquakes in the Japanese Islands, the dislocation velocity, .D, is found to be proportional to the stress drop, σ. This relation can be expressed by .D - (β/μ)σ, where β is the shear velocity and μ is the rigidity. This result has an importance in engineering seismology because the stress drop scales the seismic motion in the vicinity of an earthquake fault.     

Recent plate tectonics of the Arctic Basin and of northeastern Asia

The recent tectonics of the Arctic Basin and northeastern Asia are considered as a result of interaction between three lithospheric plates: North-America, Eurasia and Spitsbergen. Seismic zones (coinciding in the Norway-Greenland basin with the Kolbeinsey, Mohns and Knipovich ridges, and in the Arctic Ocean with the Gakkel Ridge) clearly mark the boundaries between them. In southernmost Svalbard (Spitsbergen), the secondary seismic belt deviates from the major seismic zone. This belt continues into the seismic zone of the Franz Josef Land and then merges into the seismic zone of the Gakkel Ridge at 70°–90°E. The smaller Spitsbergen plate is located between the major seismic zone and its secondary branch.Within northeastern Asia, earthquake epicenters with magnitude over 4.5 are concentrated within a 300-km wide belt crossing the Eurasian continent over a distance of 3000 km from the Lena estuary to the Komandorskye Islands. A single seismic belt crosses the northern sections of the Verkhoyansky Ridge and runs along the Chersky Ridge to the Kolymo-Okhotsk Divide.To compute the poles of relative rotation of the Eurasian, North-American and Spitsbergen plates we use 23 new determinations of focal-mechanism solutions for earthquakes, and 38 azimuths of slip vectors obtained by matching of symmetric mountain pairs on both sides of the Knipovich and Gakkel ridges; we also use 14 azimuths of strike-slip faults within the Chersky Ridge determined by satellite images. The following parameters of plate displacement were obtained: Eurasia/North America: 62.2°N, 140.2°E (from the Knipovich Ridge section south of the triple junction); 61.9°N, 143.1°E (from fault strikes in the Chersky Ridge); 60.42°N, 141.56°C (from the Knipovich section and from fault strikes in the Chersky Ridge); 59.48°N, 140.83°E, α = 1.89 · 10⁻⁷ deg/year (from the Knipovich section, from fault strikes in the Chersky Ridge and from the Gakkel Ridge section east of the triple junction). The rate was calculated by fitting the 2′ magnetic lineations within the Gakkel Ridge).North-America/Spitsbergen: 70.96°N, 121.18°E, α = −2.7 · 10⁻⁷ deg/year from the Knipovich Ridge section north of the triple junction, from earthquakes in the Spitsbergen fracture zone and from the Gakkel Ridge section west of the triple junction). Eurasia/Spitsbergen: 70.7°N, 25.49°E, α = −0.99 · 10⁻⁷ deg/year (from closure of vector triangles).     

Seismotectonics of strike–slip earthquakes within the deep crust of southern Italy: Geometry, kinematics, stress field and crustal rheology of the Potenza 1990–1991 seismic sequences (Mmax 5.7)

We present a revision and a seismotectonic interpretation of deep crust strike–slip earthquake sequences that occurred in 1990–1991 in the Southern Apennines (Potenza area). The revision is motivated by: i) the striking similarity to a seismic sequence that occurred in 2002  140 km NNW, in an analogous tectonic context (Molise area), suggesting a common seismotectonic environment of regional importance; ii) the close proximity of such deep strike–slip seismicity with shallow extensional seismicity (Apennine area); and iii) the lack of knowledge about the mechanical properties of the crust that might justify the observed crustal seismicity. A comparison between the revised 1990–1991 earthquakes and the 2002 earthquakes, as well as the integration of seismological data with a rheological analysis offer new constraints on the regional seismotectonic context of crustal seismicity in the Southern Apennines. The seismological revision consists of a relocation of the aftershock sequences based on newly constrained velocity models. New focal mechanisms of the aftershocks are computed and the active state of stress is constrained via the use of a stress inversion technique. The relationships among the observed seismicity, the crustal structure of the Southern Apennines, and the rheological layering are analysed along a crustal section crossing southern Italy, by computing geotherms and two-mechanism (brittle frictional vs. ductile plastic strength) rheological profiles. The 1990–1991 seismicity is concentrated in a well-defined depth range (mostly between 15 and 23 km depths). This depth range corresponds to the upper pat of the middle crust underlying the Apulian sedimentary cover, in the footwall of the easternmost Apennine thrust system. The 3D distribution of the aftershocks, the fault kinematics, and the stress inversion indicate the activation of a right-lateral strike–slip fault striking N100°E under a stress field characterized by a sub-horizontal N142°-trending σ1 and a sub-horizontal N232°-trending σ3, very similar to the known stress field of the Gargano seismic zone in the Apulian foreland. The apparent anomalous depths of the earthquakes (> 15 km) and the confinement within a relatively narrow depth range are explained by the crustal rheology, which consists of a strong brittle layer at mid crustal depths sandwiched between two plastic horizons. This articulated rheological stratification is typical of the central part of the Southern Apennine crust, where the Apulian crust is overthrusted by Apennine units. Both the Potenza 1990–1991 and the Molise 2002 seismic sequences can be interpreted to be due to crustal E–W fault zones within the Apulian crust inherited from previous tectonic phases and overthrusted by Apennine units during the Late Pliocene–Middle Pleistocene. The present strike–slip tectonic regime reactivated these fault zones and caused them to move with an uneven mechanical behaviour; brittle seismogenic faulting is confined to the strong brittle part of the middle crust. This strong brittle layer might also act as a stress guide able to laterally transmit the deviatoric stresses responsible for the strike–slip regime in the Apulian crust and may explain the close proximity (nearly overlapping) of the strike–slip and normal faulting regimes in the Southern Apennines. From a methodological point of view, it seems that rather simple two-mechanism rheological profiles, though affected by uncertainties, are still a useful tool for estimating the rheological properties and likely seismogenic behaviour of the crust.     

The 1980, 1997 and 1998 Azores earthquakes and some seismo-tectonic implications

We have studied the focal mechanisms of the 1980, 1997 and 1998 earthquakes in the Azores region from body-wave inversion of digital GDSN (Global Digital Seismograph Network) and broadband data. For the 1980 and 1998 shocks, we have obtained strike–slip faulting, with the rupture process made up of two sub-events in both shocks, with total scalar seismic moments of 1.9 × 10¹⁹ Nm (M_w = 6.8) and 1.4 × 10¹⁸ Nm (M_w = 6.0), respectively. For the 1997 shock, we have obtained a normal faulting mechanism, with the rupture process made up of three sub-events, with a total scalar seismic moment of 7.7 × 10¹⁷ Nm (M_w = 5.9). A common characteristic of these three earthquakes was the shallow focal depth, less than 10 km, in agreement with the oceanic-type crust. From the directivity function of Rayleigh (LR) waves, we have identified the NW–SE plane as the rupture plane for the 1980 and 1998 earthquakes with the rupture propagating to the SE. Slow rupture velocity, about of 1.5 km/s, has been estimated from directivity function for the 1980 and 1998 earthquakes. From spectral analysis and body-wave inversion, fault dimensions, stress drop and average slip have been estimated. Focal mechanisms of the three earthquakes we have studied, together with focal mechanisms obtained by other authors, have been used in order to obtain a seismotectonic model for the Azores region. We have found different types of behaviour present along the region. It can be divided into two zones: Zone I, from 30°W to 27°W; Zone II, from 27°W to 23°W, with a change in the seismicity and stress direction from Zone I. In Zone I, the total seismic moment tensor obtained corresponded to left-lateral strike–slip faulting with horizontal pressure and tension axes in the E–W and N–S directions, respectively. In Zone II, the total seismic moment tensor corresponded to normal faulting, with a horizontal tension axis trending NE–SW, normal to the Terceira Ridge. The stress pattern for the whole region corresponds to horizontal extension with an average seismic slip rate of 4.4 mm/yr.     

Three-dimensional P-wave velocity image under the Carpathian arc

An inversion of P-wave travel time residuals from selected earthquakes in the distance range 30°–98° to two seismic station networks was used to model P-wave velocity anomalies down to 250 km depth. In the first inversion experiment a region between 43.5°–47.5°N and 21°–29°E was modelled, using 35 seismic stations, while in the second one a region between 44°–47°N and 25°–29°E was modelled, using 19 seismic stations. The 4-layer block model of the first inversion offers 19% reduction in residual variance, while the 5-layer block model of the second one offers 26% reduction, the rest being explained by noise and smaller scale heterogeneities. The obtained velocity anomalies correlate remarkably well with the gravity anomalies and with the tectonic model for the Vrancea region of Fuchs et al. (1979).     

Late Pleistocene and Holocene paleoseismology of an intraplate seismic zone in a large alluvial valley, the New Madrid seismic zone, Central USA

The New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) is an intraplate right-lateral strike-slip and thrust fault system contained mostly within the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. The most recent earthquake sequence in the zone occurred in 1811–1812 and had estimated moment magnitudes of 7–8 (e.g., [Johnston, A.C., 1996. Seismic moment assessment of stable continental earthquakes, Part 3: 1811–1812 New Madrid, 1886 Charleston, and 1755 Lisbon. Geophysical Journal International 126, 314–344; Johnston, A.C., Schweig III, E.S, 1996. The enigma of the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811–1812. Annual Reviews of Earth and Planetary Sciences 24, 339–384; Hough, S.E., Armbruster, J.G., Seeber, L., Hough, J.F., 2000. On the modified Mercalli intensities and magnitudes of the New Madrid earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research 105 (B10), 23,839–23,864; Tuttle, M.P., 2001. The use of liquefaction features in paleoseismology: Lessons learned in the New Madrid seismic zone, central United States. Journal of Seismology 5, 361–380]). Four earlier prehistoric earthquakes or earthquake sequences have been dated A.D. 1450 ± 150, 900 ± 100, 300 ± 200, and 2350 B.C. ± 200 years using paleoliquefaction features, particularly those associated with native American artifacts, and in some cases surface deformation ([Craven, J. A. 1995. Paleoseismology study in the New Madrid seismic zone using geological and archeological features to constrain ages of liquefaction deposits. M.S thesis, University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, U.S.A.; Tuttle, M.P., Lafferty III, R.H., Guccione, M.J., Schweig III, E.S., Lopinot, N., Cande, R., Dyer-Williams, K., Haynes, M., 1996. Use of archaeology to date liquefaction features and seismic events in the New Madrid seismic zone, central United States. Geoarchaeology 11, 451–480; Guccione, M.J., Mueller, K., Champion, J., Shepherd, S., Odhiambo, B., 2002b. Stream response to repeated co-seismic folding, Tiptonville dome, western Tennessee. Geomorphology 43(2002), 313–349; Tuttle, M.P., Schweig, E.S., Sims, J.D., Lafferty, R.H., Wolf, L.W., Haynes, M.L., 2002. The earthquake potential of the New Madrid seismic zone, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v 92, n. 6, p. 2080–2089; Tuttle, M.P., Schweig III, E.S., Campbell, J., Thomas, P.M., Sims, J.D., Lafferty III, R.H., 2005. Evidence for New Madrid earthquakes in A.D. 300 and 2350 B.C. Seismological Research Letters 76, 489–501]). The two most recent prehistoric and the 2350 B.C. events were probably also earthquake sequences with approximately the same magnitude as the historic sequence.Surface deformation (faulting and folding) in an alluvial setting provides many examples of stream response to gradient changes that can also be used to date past earthquake events. Stream responses include changes in channel morphology, deviations in the channel path from the regional gradient, changes in the direction of flow, anomalous longitudinal profiles, and aggradation or incision of the channel ([Merritts, D., Hesterberg, T, 1994. Stream networks and long-term surface uplift in the New Madrid seismic zone. Science 265, 1081–1084.; Guccione, M.J., Mueller, K., Champion, J., Shepherd, S., Odhiambo, B., 2002b. Stream response to repeated co-seismic folding, Tiptonville dome, western Tennessee. Geomorphology 43 (2002), 313–349]). Uplift or depression of the floodplain affects the frequency of flooding and thus the thickness and style of vertical accretion or drowning of a meander scar to form a lake. Vegetation may experience trauma, mortality, and in some cases growth enhancement due to ground failure during the earthquake and hydrologic changes after the earthquake ([VanArdale, R.B., Stahle, D.W., Cleaveland, M.K., Guccione, M.J., 1998. Earthquake signals in tree-ring data from the New Madrid seismic zone and implications for paleoseismicity. Geology 26, 515–518]). Identification and dating these physical and biologic responses allows source areas to be identified and seismic events to be dated.Seven fault segments are recognized by microseismicity and geomorphology. Surface faulting has been recognized at three of these segments, Reelfoot fault, New Madrid North fault, and Bootheel fault. The Reelfoot fault is a compressive stepover along the strike-slip fault and has up to 11 m of surface relief ([Carlson, S.D., 2000. Formation and geomorphic history of Reelfoot Lake: insight into the New Madrid seismic zone. M.S. Thesis, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Arkansas, U.S.A]) deforming abandoned and active Mississippi River channels ([Guccione, M.J., Mueller, K., Champion, J., Shepherd, S., Odhiambo, B., 2002b. Stream response to repeated co-seismic folding, Tiptonville dome, western Tennessee. Geomorphology 43 (2002), 313–349]). The New Madrid North fault apparently has only strike-slip motion and is recognized by modern microseismicity, geomorphic anomalies, and sand cataclasis ([Baldwin, J.N., Barron A.D., Kelson, K.I., Harris, J.B., Cashman, S., 2002. Preliminary paleoseismic and geophysical investigation of the North Farrenburg lineament: primary tectonic deformation associated with the New Madrid North Fault?. Seismological Research Letters 73, 393–413]). The Bootheel fault, which is not identified by the modern microseismicity, is associated with extensive liquefaction and offset channels ([Guccione, M.J., Marple, R., Autin, W.J., 2005, Evidence for Holocene displacements on the Bootheel fault (lineament) in southeastern Missouri: Seismotectonic implications for the New Madrid region. Geological Society of America Bulletin 117, 319–333]). The fault has dominantly strike-slip motion but also has a vertical component of slip. Other recognized surface deformation includes relatively low-relief folding at Big Lake/Manila high ([Guccione, M.J., VanArdale, R.B., Hehr, L.H., 2000. Origin and age of the Manila high and associated Big Lake “Sunklands”, New Madrid seismic zone, northeastern Arkansas. Geological Society of America Bulletin 112, 579–590]) and Lake St. Francis/Marked Tree high ([Guccione, M.J., VanArsdale, R.B., 1995. Origin and age of the St. Francis Sunklands using drainage patterns and sedimentology. Final report submitted to the U. S. Geological Survey, Award Number 1434-93-G-2354, Washington D.C.]), both along the subsurface Blytheville arch. Deformation at each of the fault segments does not occur during each earthquake event, indicating that earthquake sources have varied throughout the Holocene.     

Source parameters of the ML 4.1 earthquake of November 08, 2006, southeast Beni-Suef, northern Egypt

In the early morning hours on Wednesday November 08, 2006 at 04:32:10(GMT) a small earthquake of M_L 4.1 has occurred at southeast Beni-Suef, approximately 160 km SEE of Cairo, northern Egypt. The quake has been felt as far as Cairo and its surroundings while no casualties were reported. The instrumental epicentre is located at 28.57°N and 31.55°E. Seismic moment is 1.76 E14 Nm, corresponding to a moment magnitude M_w 3.5. Following a Brune model, the source radius is 0.3 km with an average dislocation of 1.8 cm and a 2.4 MPa stress drop. The source mechanism from a first motion fault plane solution shows a left-lateral strike-slip mechanism with a minor dip-slip component along fault NNW striking at 161°, dipping 52° to the west and rake −5°. Trend and plunging of the maximum and minimum principle axes P/T are 125°, 28°, 21°, and 23°, respectively. A comparison with the mechanism of the October, 1999 event shows similarities in faulting type and orientation of nodal planes.Eight small earthquakes (3.0  M_L < 5.0) were also recorded by the Egyptian National Seismological Network (ENSN) from the same region. We estimate the source parameters and fault mechanism solutions (FMS) for these earthquakes using displacement spectra and P-wave polarities, respectively. The obtained source parameters including seismic moments of 4.9 × 10¹²–5.04 × 10¹⁵ Nm, stress drops of 0.2–4.9 MPa and relative displacement of 0.1–9.1 cm. The azimuths of T-axes determined from FMS are oriented in NNE–SSW direction. This direction is consistent with the present-day stress field in Egypt and the last phase of stress field changes in the Late Pleistocene, as well as with recent GPS measurements.     

The Gibraltar Arc seismogenic zone (part 2): Constraints on a shallow east dipping fault plane source for the 1755 Lisbon earthquake provided by tsunami modeling and seismic intensity

The Great Lisbon earthquake has the largest documented felt area of any shallow earthquake and an estimated magnitude of 8.5–9.0. The associated tsunami ravaged the coast of SW Portugal and the Gulf of Cadiz, with run-up heights reported to have reached 5–15 m. While several source regions offshore SW Portugal have been proposed (e.g.— Gorringe Bank, Marquis de Pombal fault), no single source appears to be able to account for the great seismic moment as well as all the historical tsunami amplitude and travel time observations. A shallow east dipping fault plane beneath the Gulf of Cadiz associated with active subduction beneath Gibraltar, represents a candidate source for the Lisbon earthquake of 1755.Here we consider the fault parameters implied by this hypothesis, with respect to total slip, seismic moment, and recurrence interval to test the viability of this source. The geometry of the seismogenic zone is obtained from deep crustal studies and can be represented by an east dipping fault plane with mean dimensions of 180 km (N–S) × 210 km (E–W). For 10 m of co-seismic slip an Mw 8.64 event results and for 20 m of slip an Mw 8.8 earthquake is generated. Thus, for convergence rates of about 1 cm/yr, an event of this magnitude could occur every 1000–2000 years. Available kinematic and sedimentological data are in general agreement with such a recurrence interval. Tsunami wave form modeling indicates a subduction source in the Gulf of Cadiz can partly satisfy the historical observations with respect to wave amplitudes and arrival times, though discrepancies remain for some stations. A macroseismic analysis is performed using site effect functions calculated from isoseismals observed during instrumentally recorded strong earthquakes in the region (M7.9 1969 and M6.8 1964). The resulting synthetic isoseismals for the 1755 event suggest a subduction source, possibly in combination with an additional source at the NW corner of the Gulf of Cadiz can satisfactorily explain the historically observed seismic intensities. Further studies are needed to sample the turbidites in the adjacent abyssal plains to better document the source region and more precisely calibrate the chronology of great earthquakes in this region.     

Current accelerating seismic excitation along the northern boundary of the Aegean microplate

According to previous observations [Geophys. Res. Lett. 27 (2000) 3957], the generation of large (M≥7.0) earthquakes in the western part of the north Anatolian fault system (Marmara Sea) is followed by strong earthquakes along the Northern Boundary of the Aegean microplate (NAB: northwestermost Anatolia–northern Aegean–central Greece–Ionian islands). Therefore, it can be hypothesized that a seismic excitation along this boundary should be expected after the occurrence of the Izmit 1999 earthquake (M=7.6). We have applied the method of accelerating seismic crustal deformation, which is based on concepts of critical point dynamics in an attempt to locate more precisely those regions along the NAB where seismic excitation is more likely to occur. For this reason, a detailed parametric grid search of the broader NAB area was performed for the identification of accelerating energy release behavior.Three such elliptical critical regions have been identified with centers along this boundary. The first region, (A), is centered in the eastern part of this boundary (40.2°N, 27.2°E: southwest of Marmara), the second region, (B), has a center in the middle part of the boundary (38.8°N, 23.4°E: East Central Greece) and the third region, (C), in the westernmost part of the boundary (38.2°N, 20.9°E: Ionian Islands). The study of the time variation of the cumulative Benioff strain in two of the three identified regions (A and B) revealed that intense accelerating seismicity is observed especially after the occurrence of the 1999 Izmit mainshock. Therefore, it can be suggested that the seismic excitation, at least in these two regions, has been triggered by the Izmit mainshock.Estimations of the magnitudes and origin times of the expected mainshocks in these three critical regions have also been performed, assuming that the accelerating seismicity in these regions will lead to a critical point, that is, to the generation of mainshocks.     

Microearthquakes and faulting in the southern Okinawa Trough

Southern Okinawa Trough represents an early stage of back-arc rifting and is characterized by normal faulting and microearthquakes. Earthquake distribution and deep structure of fault was investigated to clarify active rifting in the southern Okinawa Trough, where two parallel grabens are located. A network of ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs) that displayed the hypocenters of 105 earthquakes were observed for a period of 4 days in southern-graben (SG). Most of the microearthquakes occurred in a cluster about 7 km wide, which on a cross-section striking N45°E dips 48° to the southwest. Relocated hypocenters, which are recorded by a local seismic network, show scattered distribution around the southern-graben. There are no remarkable surface faults in the southern-graben. On the other hand, the recalculation of hypocenter locations of 1996 earthquakes swarm recorded by a local seismic network suggests that the swarm is associated with normal faulting on the southern side of northern-graben (NG). Thus, the undeveloped southern-graben is located to the south of the developed northern-graben. Southward migration of rifting, which may be caused by migration of volcanism, could thus be occurring in the southern Okinawa Trough. The extension rate computed for the southern Okinawa Trough from the fault model of the northern-graben is 4.6 cm/year, which is 59–102% of the extension rate (GPS measurements). This result indicates that the majority of extensional deformation is concentrated within the center of the northern-graben in the Okinawa Trough.     

On the anomalous land uplift and aseismic creep prior to the 1976 Tangshan earthquake

A spatio-temporal analysis based on the data of eleven repeated levellings around the Tangshan region prior to the 1976 earthquake indicates that an uplift lasting for 2 years, from 1968 through 1969. with a magnitude of 50 mm, occurred in the epicentral area.Aseismic creep superimposed on the accumulated strain has been found in the vicinity of Tangshan and Baodi along both the Tangshan and the Jiyunhe faults.Assuming uniform strain accumulation and elastic dislocation, theoretical values of displacement at the various dislocation sites have been calculated and, using the least squares method, the optimal values of strain accumulation and the parameters of the creep faults in different years have been determined.The creep fault under Tangshan, a right-lateral normal fault, strikes N47°E and dips S87°E. and is 8 km long and 6 km wide. The upper boundary of the fault lies 2 km deep. The strike-slip and dip-slip offsets are, respectively, 104 cm and 8cm. The average rate of strain accumulation amounts to 0.9 × 10⁻⁷/yr. Creep at the fault amounted to 18.6 cm/yr and 1.4 cm/yr, respectively, in the strike and dip directions over the period 1969–1975. The Jiyunhe fault, although of smaller dimensions, has experienced a greater rate of creep than the Tangshan fault.A correlation of the above-mentioned uplift and creep with that of the Tangshan earthquake suggests that the uplift might have been a manifestation of the early development of the earthquake and that aseismic creep may be one of the precursory phenomena of shallow earthquakes. The sequence of processes preceding the Tangshan earthquake may be described as: strain accumulation-land upliftaseismic creep-inverse land deformation (or decrease in creep rate)-earthquake.     

Seismotectonics of the Nepal Himalaya from a local seismic network

The National Seismological Network of Nepal consists of 17 short period seismic stations operated since 1994. It provides an exceptional view of the microseismic activity over nearly one third of the Himalayan arc, including the only segment, between longitudes 78°E and 85°E, that has not produced any M>8 earthquakes over the last century. It shows a belt of seismicity that follows approximately the front of the Higher Himalaya with most of the seismic moment being released at depths between 10 and 20 km. This belt of seismicity is interpreted to reflect interseismic stress accumulation in the upper crust associated with creep in the lower crust beneath the Higher Himalaya. The seismic activity is more intense around 82°E in Far-Western Nepal and around 87°E in Eastern Nepal. Western Nepal, between 82.5 and 85°E, is characterized by a particularly low level of seismic activity. We propose that these lateral variations are related to segmentation of the Main Himalayan Thrust Fault. The major junctions between the different segments would thus lie at about 87°E and 82°E with possibly an intermediate one at about 85°E. These junctions seem to coincide with some of the active normal faults in Southern Tibet. Lateral variation of seismic activity is also found to correlate with lateral variations of geological structures suggesting that segmentation is a long-lived feature. We infer four 250–400 km long segments that could produce earthquakes comparable to the M=8.4 Bihar–Nepal earthquake that struck eastern Nepal in 1934. Assuming the model of the characteristic earthquake, the recurrence interval between two such earthquakes on a given segment is between 130 and 260 years.     

Paleoseismology of the Palu–Lake Hazar segment of the East Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey

The East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ) is among the most important active continental transform fault zones in the world as testified by major historical and minor instrumental seismicity. The first paleoseismological exploratory trenching study on the EAFZ was done on the Palu–Lake Hazar segment (PLHS), which is one of the six segments forming the fault zone, in order to determine its past activity and to assess its earthquake hazard.The results of trenching indicate that the latest surface rupturing earthquakes on this segment may be the Ms=7.1+ 1874 and Ms=6.7 1875 events, and there were other destructive earthquakes prior to these events. The recurrence interval for a surface rupturing large (M>7) earthquake is estimated as minimum 100±35 and maximum 360 years. Estimates for the maximum possible paleoearthquake magnitude are (Mw) 7.1–7.7 for the Palu–Lake Hazar segment based on empirical magnitude fault rupture relations.An alluvial fan dated 14,475–15,255 cal years BP as well as another similar age fan with an abandoned stream channel on it are offset in a left-lateral sense 175 and 160.5 m, respectively, indicating an average slip rate of 11 mm/year. Because 127 years have elapsed since the last surface rupturing event, this slip rate suggests that 1.4 m of left-lateral strain has accumulated along the segment, ignoring possible creep effects, folding and other inelastic deformation. A 2.5 Ma age for the start of left-lateral movement on the segment, and in turn the EAFZ, is consistent with a slip rate of 11 mm/year and a previously reported 27 km total left-lateral offset. The cumulative 5–6 mm/year vertical slip rate near Lake Hazar suggests a possible age of 148–178 ka for the lake. Our trenching results indicate also that a significant fraction of the slip across the EAFZ zone is likely to be accommodated seismically. The present seismic quiescence compared with the past activity (paleoseismic and historic) indicate that the EAFZ may be “locked” and accumulating elastic strain energy but could move in the near future.     

Spatial relationships between natural seismicity and faults, southeastern Ontario and north-central New York state

A statistical analysis was carried out to investigate spatial associations between natural seismicity and faults in southeastern Ontario and north-central New York State (between 73°18′ and 77°00′W and 43°30′ and 45°18′N). The study area is situated to the west of the seismically active St. Lawrence fault zone, and to the east of the Lake Ontario basin where recently documented geological and geophysical evidence points to possible neotectonic faulting. The weights of evidence method was used to judge the spatial associations between seismic events and populations of faults in eight arbitrarily defined orientation groups. Spatial analysis of data sets for seismic events in the periods 1930–1970 and post-1970 suggest stronger spatial associations between earthquake epicentres and faults with strikes that lie in the NW–SE quadrants, and weaker spatial associations of epicentres with faults that have strikes in the NE–SW quadrants. The strongest spatial associations were determined for groups of faults with strikes between 101° and 146°. The results suggest that faults striking broadly NW–SE, at high angles to the regional maximum horizontal compressive stress, are statistically more likely to be spatially associated with seismic events than faults striking broadly NE–SW. If the positive spatial associations can be interpreted as indicating genetic relationships between earthquakes and mapped faults, then the results may suggest that, as a population, NW–SE trending faults are more likely to be seismically active than NE–SW striking faults. Detailed geological studies of faults in the study area would be required to determine possible neotectonic displacements and the kinematics of the displacements.     

Seismic faults in the Aegean area

Reliable fault plane solutions of shallow earthquakes and information on surface fault traces in combination with other seismic, geomorphological and geological information have been used to determine the orientation and other properties of the seismic faults in the Aegean and surrounding area.Thrust faults having an about NW-SE strike occur in the outer seismic zone along western Albania-westernmost part of mainland of Greece-Ionian Sea-south of Crete-south of Rhodes.The inner part of the area is dominated by strike-slip and normal faulting. Strike-slip with an about NE-SW slip direction occurs in the inner part of the Hellenic arc along the line Peloponnesus-Cyclades-Dodecanese-southwest Turkey as well as along a zone which is associated with the northern Aegean trough and the northwesternmost part of Anatolia. All other regions in the inner part of the area are characterized by normal faulting. The slip direction of the normal faults has an about SW-NE direction in Crete (N38°E) and an about E-W direction (N81°E) in a zone which trends N-S in eastern Albania and its extension to western mainland of Greece. In all other regions (central Greece-southern Yugoslavia and Bulgaria, western Turkey) the slip of the normal faults has an about N-S direction.     

Stress fields and fault reactivation angles of the 2000 western Tottori aftershocks and the 2001 northern Hyogo swarm in southwest Japan

We estimated the stress fields of the aftershocks of the 2000 western Tottori earthquake (M_w 6.6) and the northern Hyogo swarm (max M_w 5.2) by a stress tensor inversion of moment tensor solutions reported from the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (Japan). The maximum principal stress direction of the western Tottori sequence was estimated as N107°E with a strike–slip regime. In the northern Hyogo swarm, the orientations of the principal stress directions could not be well constrained by the observed data, but after examining the detailed characteristics of the solution, we obtained a most probable solution of N113°E for the σ₁ direction. These solutions are consistent with the maximum horizontal directions roughly estimated from the strike directions of large earthquakes occurring geographically between these two seismic activities. We measured the angle between each fault–slip direction and maximum principal stress direction to investigate the frictional properties of earthquakes. The distribution of the angles was forward modeled to estimate the coefficient of friction and the stress ratio, assuming uniformly distributed fault orientations. For the western Tottori sequence, a homogeneous stress field with a coefficient of friction less than 0.4 was estimated. A high stress level was also suggested because very little change occurred in the stress field during the mainshock. For the northern Hyogo sequence, the coefficient of friction was estimated to be between 0.5 and 1.0.     

The opening of the Woodlark Basin, subduction of the Woodlark spreading system, and the evolution of Northern Melanesia since mid-pliocene time

Magnetic anomaly and seismological data define segments of active seafloor spreading and associated magnetic lineations trending ENE in the Woodlark Basin. The total opening rate has been approximately 6 cm/yr for the last 1 m.y. Spreading rates diminish by over 10% from east to west along the Woodlark spreading system implying a pole of current opening 15°–20° to the west. Commencement of seafloor spreading in the basin has apparently been time-transgressive, beginning prior to 3.5 m.y. in the east, and at successively later times to the west. Earthquake focal mechanisms and geological evidence suggest that the land areas bounding the western end of the Woodlark Basin are undergoing tensional deformation. We believe that eventually the Woodlark Basin plate boundary will propagate westward through the d'Entrecasteaux Islands into the Papuan peninsula. Hitherto unreported shallow seismicity associated with the northern margin of the NE-trending section of the Woodlark Rise probably reflects partial decoupling of the Woodlark and Solomon basins, possibly due to mechanical difficulties in subducting the young Woodlark lithosphere.Analysis of the relative motions between the Solomon, Indo-Australian, and Pacific plates shows that the Woodlark spreading system has been subducted at high rates (> 10 cm/yr) beneath the Solomon Islands during the opening of the Woodlark Basin. Several tectonic and geological features limited to the region of interaction of the Woodlark Basin with the Solomon Trench and arc may be symptomatic of ridge subduction. These features include high heat flow in the Solomon Trench, which shoals to 4 km; low levels of seismicity and only shallow hypocenters; and voluminous eruptions of high olivine basalts and basaltic andesites extremely close to the trench axis. This close association in space and time of an unusual volcanic suite with ridge subduction implies a strong dependence of the petrogenesis on the tectonic regime.A combination of this study of the Woodlark Basin and the previous study of the Bismarck Basin (Taylor, 1979) provides a reconstruction of the positions of the continents, ocean basins, and island chains in northern Melanesia for mid-Pliocene time. In accepting the existence of a Solomon plate, we can explain the trench-like structure off the Trobriand margin of New Guinea, the occurrence of Late Cenozoic calc-alkaline volcanism along the Papuan peninsula, and the presence of intermediate depth seismicity beneath the north Papuan peninsula. The rapid changes in relative motions along or across the New Ireland-Solomons chain over the past 3.5 m.y. may explain the spatial and temporal changes in igneous activity observed on these islands.     

Precursory accelerating seismic crustal deformation in the Northwestern Anatolia Fault Zone

We present the results of a systematic search for the identification of accelerating seismic crustal deformation in the broader northern Aegean area and in northwestern Turkey. We found that accelerating seismic deformation release, expressed by the generation of intermediate magnitude earthquakes, is currently observed in NW Turkey. On the basis of the critical earthquake model and by applying certain constraints which hold between the basic quantities involved in this phenomenon, it can be expected that this accelerating seismic activity may culminate in the generation of two strong earthquakes in this area during the next few years.The estimated epicenter coordinates of the larger of these probably impending earthquakes are 39.7°N–28.8°E, its magnitude is 7.0 and its occurrence time t_c=2003.5. The second strong event is expected to occur at t_c=2002.5 with a magnitude equal to 6.4 and epicenter coordinates 40.0°N–27.4°E. The uncertainties in the calculated focal parameters for these expected events are of the order of 100 km for the epicenter, ±0.5 for their magnitude and ±1.5 years for their occurrence time.     

Thessaloniki–Gerakarou Fault Zone (TGFZ): the western extension of the 1978 Thessaloniki earthquake fault (Northern Greece) and seismic hazard assessment

Active faulting and seismic properties are re-investigated in the eastern precinct of the city of Thessaloniki (Northern Greece), which was seriously affected by two large earthquakes during the 20th century and severe damage was done by the 1759 event. It is suggested that the earthquake fault associated with the occurrence of the latest destructive 1978 Thessaloniki earthquake continues westwards to the 20-km-long Thessaloniki–Gerakarou Fault Zone (TGFZ), which extends from the Gerakarou village to the city of Thessaloniki. This fault zone exhibits a constant dip to the N and is characterised by a complicated geometry comprised of inherited 100°-trending faults that form multi-level branching (tree-like fault geometry) along with NNE- to NE-trending faults. The TGFZ is compatible with the contemporary regional N–S extensional stress field that tends to modify the pre-existing NW–SE tectonic fabric prevailing in the mountainous region of Thessaloniki. Both the 1978 earthquake fault and TGFZ belong to a ca. 65-km-long E–W-trending rupture fault system that runs through the southern part of the Mygdonia graben from the Strymonikos gulf to Thessaloniki. This fault system, here called Thessaloniki–Rentina Fault System (TRFS), consists of two 17–20-km-long left-stepping 100°-trending main fault strands that form underlapping steps bridged by 8–10-km-long ENE–WSW faults. The occurrence of large (M6.0) historical earthquakes (in 620, 677 and 700 A.D.) demonstrates repeated activation, and therefore the possible reactivation of the westernmost segment, the TGFZ, could be a major threat to the city of Thessaloniki. Changes in the Coulomb failure function (ΔCFF) due to the occurrence of the 1978 earthquake calculated out in this paper indicate that the TGFZ has been brought closer to failure, a convincing argument for future seismic hazard along the TGFZ.