Susceptibility assessment of earthquake-triggered landslides in El Salvador using logistic regression

This work has evaluated the probability of earthquake-triggered landslide occurrence in the whole of El Salvador, with a Geographic Information System (GIS) and a logistic regression model. Slope gradient, elevation, aspect, mean annual precipitation, lithology, land use, and terrain roughness are the predictor variables used to determine the dependent variable of occurrence or non-occurrence of landslides within an individual grid cell. The results illustrate the importance of terrain roughness and soil type as key factors within the model — using only these two variables the analysis returned a significance level of 89.4%. The results obtained from the model within the GIS were then used to produce a map of relative landslide susceptibility.     

Holocene lake-level changes and their reflection in the paleolimnological records of two lakes in northern Estonia

Sediment cores from two neighbouring lakes (Viitna Linajärv and Viitna Pikkjärv) in northern Estonia were studied to determine lake-level fluctuations during the Holocene and their impact on biogeochemical cycling. Organic matter and pollen records dated by radiocarbon and radiolead indicated a water level rise in both lakes during the early Holocene (c. 10 000–8000 BP). A regression followed around 7500 BP and several transgressions occurred during the latter half of the Holocene, c. 6500 and 3000 BP. Human impact during the last centuries has caused short-term lake-level fluctuations and accelerated sediment accumulation in the lakes. The differences in water depth led to variations in sediment formation. During 10 000–8000 BP (Preboreal and Boreal chronozones) mineral-rich sediments with coloured interlayers deposited in L. Linajärv. These sediments indicate intensive erosion from the catchment and oxygen-rich lake, which favoured precipitation of iron oxides and carbonates. Fluctuations in water depth, leaching of nutrients from catchment soils and climatic changes increased the trophy of L. Linajärv around 6000 BP. The subsequent accumulation of gyttja, the absence of CaCO₃ and the decrease in both the C/N ratio and phosphorus content in the sediments also indicate anoxic conditions in the hypolimnion. The similarity in the development of L. Linajärv and L. Pikkjärv and their proximity made it possible to discern the impact of water depths changes on biogeochemical cycling in lakes.     

Universal and Specific Features of Urbanization in Estonia under Socialism: The Empirical Evidence of the Sources of Urban and Rural Population Growth

Analysts of urbanization in socialist countries have often taken firm positions on the nature of urbanization under this particular social context, defending either universalistic or specific standpoints. It has been a remarkable contribution to the understanding of urbanization under central planning through formulating some of the key arguments. The issues at stake have not been resolved, however, and more empirical work would be welcome. An explorative approach is therefore taken in the current article, with a view to finding additional empirical evidence for or against the diverse set of arguments previously made. It focuses on the sources of urban and rural population growth in Estonia during the Soviet period (1945–1991). The analysis helps us to better understand how different causes intermingled to produce the process of urban and rural population change, which had some common features that hold true in cross–country comparisons and some specific ones that Estonia offers to the mosaic of world urbanization.     

Root tensile strength relationships and their slope stability implications of three shrub species in the Northern Apennines (Italy)

The role of root strength is important in stabilising steep hillslopes which are seasonally affected by storm-induced shallow landslides. In the Italian Apennines, steep (25–40°) slopes underlain by mudstone are generally stable if they are covered by shrubs whose roots anchor into the soil mantle. To quantify the mechanical reinforcement of roots to soil, the root tensile breaking force and the root tensile strength of three autochthonous shrub species commonly growing on stiff clay soils of the Northern Italian Apennines, Rosa canina (L.), Inula viscosa (L.) and Spartium junceum (L.), were measured by means of field and laboratory tests. For each test approximately 150 root specimens were used. The tensile force increases with increasing root diameter following a second-order polynomial regression curve. The tensile strength decreases with increasing root diameter following a power law curve. The field in situ tensile force required to break a root is always smaller than that obtained from laboratory tests for the same root diameter, although their difference becomes negligible if the root diameter is smaller than 5 mm. The influence of root tensile strength on soil shear strength was verified based on the infinite slope stability model. The root reinforcement was calculated using the number and mean diameter of roots. The factor of safety was calculated for three different soil thickness values (0.1, 0.3, and 0.6 m) and topographic slopes between 10° and 45°. The factor of safety for the combination of 0.6 m soil thickness, slopes smaller than 30°, and vegetation of I. viscosa (L.) or S. junceum (L.) is always larger than 1. If a slope is steeper, the factor of safety may be smaller than 1 for I. viscosa (L.), although it is still larger than 1 for S. junceum (L.). In the stiff clayey areas of the Northern Italian Apennines, I. viscosa (L.) mainly colonizes fan/cone/taluses and stabilises these zones up to a topographic gradient < 30° for a soil 0.6 m thick. S. junceum (L.) colonizes not only fan/cone/taluses but also headwalls and cliffs and, for a 0.6 m thick soil, it stabilises these areas up to 45°. The effectiveness of this reinforcement, however, depends strongly on the frequency of soil and seasonal grass vegetation removal due to shallow landsliding before the entrance of the shrub species.     

LiDAR-derived DEM evaluation of deep-seated landslides in a steep and rocky region of Japan

In steep and rocky terrains, their rough surfaces make it difficult to create landslide inventories even with detailed maps/images produced from airborne LiDAR data. To provide objective clues in locating deep-seated landslides, the surface textures of a 5 km² steepland area in Japan was investigated using the eigenvalue ratio and slope filters calculated from a very high resolution LiDAR-derived DEM. The range of filter values was determined for each of a number of surface features mapped in the field and these included: cracked bedrock outcrops, coarse colluvial deposits, gently undulating surfaces, and smooth surfaces. Recently active slides commonly contained patches of ground in which deposition and erosion occurred together near the erosion front, or where cracked bedrock outcrops and coarse colluvial deposits coexisted under a gently undulating surface. The characteristic eigenvalue and slope filter values representing this sliding process were applied to maps of the DEM derived filter values to extract potential sites of recent landslide activity. In addition, the relationships between the filter values of deep-seated landslides at various stages of evolution within the field mapped area were extended to the entire study area, to assess the contribution that landslide evolution makes to change in the landscape as a whole. While landslide components made up the steepest as well as the gentlest parts of the landscape depending on their evolutionary stage, landslides were constantly coarsened and steepened by progressive erosion, probably initiated by river bank erosion at the foot of slopes.     

Morphology and geotechnique of active-layer detachment failures in discontinuous and continuous permafrost, northern Canada

Fifty active-layer detachment failures triggered after forest fire in the discontinuous permafrost zone (central Mackenzie Valley, 65° N.) are compared to several hundred others caused by summer meteorological triggers in continuous permafrost (Fosheim Peninsula, Ellesmere Island, 80°N). Most failures fall into compact or elongated morphological categories. The compact type occur next to stream channels and have little internal disturbance of the displaced block, whereas the elongated types can develop on any part of the slope and exhibit greater internal deformation. Frequency distributions of length-to-width and length-to-depth ratios are similar at all sites. Positive pore pressures, expected theoretically, were measured in the field at the base of the thawing layer. Effective stress analysis could predict the instability of slopes in both areas, providing cohesion across the thaw plane was set to zero and/or residual strength parameters were employed. The location of the shear planes or zones in relation to the permafrost table and the degree of post-failure secondary movements (including headwall recession and thermokarst development within the failure track) differed between the localities, reflecting dissimilarity in the environmental triggers and in the degree of ground thermal disturbance.     

Climate change and permafrost stability in the eastern Canada Cordillera: The results of 33 years of measurements

Over the last 33 years,a network of climate stations has been set up at high altitude mountain permafrost sites from Plateau Mountain near Claresholm,Alberta,north to Sheldon Lake on the North Canol Road in the Yukon.Taken together with the data from the US National Weather Service and the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service,the results indicate a cooling of mean annual air temperature south of Calgary,no significant change in Calgary,a slight warming at Jasper,and a major warming at Summit Lake,west of Fort Nelson.In contrast,the south eastern and central Yukon show only a minor warming trend that lies well within the limits of a sixty-year record measured by the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service.Along the Mackenzie valley and on the North Slope of Alaska,the mean annual air temperature is rising.Permafrost is aggrading on Plateau Mountain,degrading at Summit Lake,and appears to be stable in southern Yukon and southern Alaska.This is in contrast to the warming occurring on the Arctic coastal plain and along the Mackenzie valley.It therefore appears that changes in climate vary considera-bly from place to place,and even where warming may occur,it may not continue indefinitely.There has been a northward shift of the arctic front due to a weakening of air pressure in the Yukon and Alaska relative to the continental tropical(cT) and maritime polar(mT) air masses to the south.Any actual changes that may be occurring appear to undergo amplification along the Mackenzie valley and Arctic coastal plain and reduction by buffering in the interior Yukon and Alaskan mountains,a result of mi-cro-environmental factors.Continued,careful monitoring of the climate is required and needs to be expanded in the National Parks in the mountains in order to provide data on the changes that may be taking place.Such measurements can provide a sound basis for interpreting ecological and other climate-related data.The existing climate models are not working satisfactorily because we do not know enough about the causes and proce     

A case study of coping strategies and landslides in two villages of Central-Eastern Nepal

Landslides are an increasing problem in Nepal’s Middle Hills due to both natural and human phenomena: mainly increasingly intense monsoon rains and a boom in rural road construction. This problem has largely been neglected due to underreporting of losses and the dispersed nature of landslides. Understanding how populations cope with landslides is a first step toward developing more effective landslide risk management programs. The present research focuses on two villages in Central-Eastern Nepal, both affected by active landslides but with different coping strategies. Research methods are interdisciplinary, based on a geological assessment of landslide risk and a socio-economic study of the villages using household questionnaires, focus group discussions and transect walks. Community risk maps are compared with geological landslide risk maps to better understand and communicate community risk perceptions, priorities and coping strategies. A modified typology of coping strategies is presented, based on previous work by Burton, Kates, and White (1993) that is useful for decision-makers for designing more effective programs for landslide mitigation. Main findings underscore that coping strategies, mainly seeking external assistance and outmigration, are closely linked to access to resources, ethnicity/social status and levels of community organization. Conclusions include the importance of investing in organizational skills, while building on local knowledge about landslide mitigation for reducing landslide risk. There is great potential to increase coping strategies by incorporating skills training on landslide mitigation in existing agricultural outreach and community forest user group training.     

西宁盆地黄土区不同草本植物和坡形条件下坡面产流产沙特征

为进一步研究不同草本植物和边坡坡面形态对坡面产流产沙的影响,以西宁盆地毛鸡湾流域长岭绿化区作为试验区,设计了直形和阶梯形2种坡形,选取3种优势草本老芒麦(Elymus sibiricus Linn.)、垂穗披碱草(Elymus nutans Griseb.)和细茎冰草(Agropyron trachycaulum Linn.Gaertn.)作为试验供试种,通过人工模拟降雨试验,探讨了种植不同草本和坡形条件下,边坡坡面的产流、产沙和入渗特征。结果表明,在直形边坡中,裸坡坡面的产流时间小于种植草本植物坡面,且垂穗披碱草坡面和老芒麦坡面的形成产流时间相对较长,为4 min。与直形边坡相比,垂穗披碱草阶梯形坡面产流时间相对最长,为8 min;在直形边坡中,垂穗披碱草坡面和老芒麦坡面累积径流量、累积产沙量和径流系数相对最小,分别为51.42 L/min、160 g、14.98%,51.25 L/min、210 g、14.93%,细茎冰草坡面的累积径流量、累积产沙量和径流系数分别为96.97 L/min, 700 g, 28.25%;垂穗披碱草坡面和老芒麦坡面稳定入渗速率相对最大,其值为0.38～...     

Linking hydrological, infinite slope stability and land-use change models through GIS for assessing the impact of deforestation on slope stability in high Andean watersheds

In the Ecuadorian Andes, episodic slope movements comprising shallow rotational and translational slides and rapid flows of debris and soil material are common. Consequently, not only considerable financial costs are experienced, but also major ecological and environmental problems arise in a larger geographical area. Sediment production by slope movement on hillslopes directly affects sediment transport and deposition in downstream rivers and dams and morphological changes in the stream channels. In developing countries world-wide, slope movement hazards are growing: increasing population pressure and economic development force more people to move to potentially hazardous areas, which are less suitable for agriculture and rangelands.This paper describes the methods used to determine the controlling factors of slope failure and to build upon the results of the statistical analysis a process-based slope stability model, which includes a dynamic soil wetness index using a simple subsurface flow model. The model provides a time-varying estimate of slope movement susceptibility, by linking land-use data with spatially varying hydrologic (soil conductivity, evapotranspiration, soil wetness) and soil strength properties. The slope stability model was applied to a high Andean watershed (Gordeleg Catchment, 250 ha, southern Ecuadorian Andes) and was validated by calculating the association coefficients between the slope movement susceptibility map of 2000 and the spatial pattern of active slope movements, as measured in the field with GPS. The proposed methodology allows assessment of the effects of past and future land-use change on slope stability. A realistic deforestation scenario was presented: past land-use change includes a gradual fragmentation and clear cut of the secondary forests, as observed over the last four decades (1963–2000), future land-use change is simulated based on a binary logistic deforestation model, whereby it was assumed that future land-use change would continue at the same rate and style as over the last 37 years (1963–2000).     

Influence of late Holocene hillslope processes and landforms on modern channel dynamics in upland watersheds of central Nevada

Stratigraphic, geomorphic, and paleoecological data were collected from upland watersheds in the Great Basin of central Nevada to assess the relationships between late Holocene climate change, hillslope processes and landforms, and modern channel dynamics. These data indicate that a shift to drier, warmer climatic conditions from approximately 2500 to 1300 YPB led to a complex set of geomorphic responses. The initial response was massive hillslope erosion and the simultaneous aggradation of both side-valley alluvial fans and the axial valley system. The final response was fan stabilization and axial channel incision as fine-grained sediments were winnowed from the hillslope sediment reservoirs, and sediment yield and runoff processes were altered. The primary geomorphic response to disturbance for approximately the past 1900 years has been channel entrenchment, suggesting that the evolutionary history of hillslopes has produced watersheds that are prone to incision. The magnitude of the most recent phase of channel entrenchment varies along the valley floor as a function of geomorphic position relative to side-valley alluvial fans. Radial fan profiles suggest that during fan building, fan deposits temporarily blocked the flow of sediment down the main stem of the valley, commonly creating a stepped longitudinal valley profile. Stream reaches located immediately upvalley of these fans are characterized by low gradients and alternating episodes of erosion and deposition. In contrast, reaches coincident with or immediately downstream of the fans exhibit higher gradients and limited valley floor deposition. Thus, modern channel dynamics and associated riparian ecosystems are strongly influenced by landforms created by depositional events that occurred approximately 2000 years ago.     

天山北坡城市群空间组织形态的识别研究

 正确认识天山北坡城市群的空间组织结构以及空间发展形态,对于完善绿洲城市群的发展理论和规划具有重要意义。以天山北坡城市群为研究对象,通过资源环境承载力的分析,总结出未来城市群发展面临的客观制约因素;通过中心性分析、断裂点理论修正的Voronoi多边形等方法识别出城市群的中心城市及各自的辐射范围城市;通过引力模型识别出城市之间的社会经济联系强度。据此,利用多维尺度分析的方法,可视化地展现了天山北坡城市群发展的空间组织形态。经调查了解：（1）乌鲁木齐市与克拉玛依市是未来城市群发展的两个中心城市,五家渠市、阜康市、昌吉市、石河子市周边目前属于乌鲁木齐市的辐射范围城市,奎屯市,乌苏市属于克拉玛依市的辐射范围城市;（2）城市群内部的城市之间的联系比较松散,特别是两个中心城市之间联系较弱;（3）城市群的空间发展形态为串珠式,是一种特殊的走廊式空间形态。     

天山北坡城市群点-轴结构分形与干旱区绿洲城市群发展特征

针对中国西北区域的城市群发展问题,从干旱区绿洲空间碎片化结构特征及其对城镇空间的约束性出发,论证天山北坡城市群点-轴结构"多中心组群"式发展的自然客观性特征。通过构建城镇群点-轴结构位序-规模等级维数、空间关联维数和空间聚集维数表征的分形研究模型,解析了以天山北坡城市群13个建制市为样本的点-轴结构分形特征,推证了天山北坡城市群点-轴结构"多中心组群"式发展的绿洲空间结构特征、发展基础与优势,提出了绿洲区域层级性的城镇组群发展对策与建议。     

沙盖黄土丘陵坡地土壤理化特性随地形变化规律研究

在陕西神木县与内蒙古东胜市交界的饮马泉小流域,选择有代表性的坡面进行地形剖面和土壤层垂直方向的系统采样。每个样品进行了粒级、土壤质量含水量、土壤有机质测试。经数据的分析模拟,得以下结论:①土壤粒级构成和物理性粘粒含量特征,可以指示研究区土壤的沙化程度和演化趋向,其具有向西北更干旱粗化方向过渡的倾向。②土壤水分随地貌部位的变化规律比较明显,在峁坡顶部和上部,垂向上具有自上而下增加的趋势,而在峁坡下部和坡脚却正好相反。不论何种地貌部位都存在一个相近的土壤蒸发、渗漏、持水能力相对的平衡深度。③土壤的物理性粘粒含量与土壤的水肥关系密切,物理性粘粒含量相对高的土壤剖面,土壤的水肥组合效果较好。④土壤水肥质地的组合效果,丘陵顶部的最差,依次过渡到坡脚的组合效果最好。其进一步表明,地貌因素在土壤形成后的一系列熟化、退化、被侵蚀和沙化的演化过程中,地貌仍起着至关重要的作用。     

天山北坡经济带固定资产投资特征及其对城镇集聚的影响

 在研究天山北坡经济带2000-2009年固定资产投资和城镇集聚基本特征基础之上,采用主成分分析法和面板数据回归模型,定量分析了固定资产投资对该地区城镇集聚的影响和作用机制。结果表明：（1）天山北坡经济带全社会固定资产投资在各县市分布相对集中于区域中心城市,呈现明显的“序位-规模”分布,具有行政区经济的特点,政府主导度与投资集中度成反向关系;（2）天山北坡经济带的城镇集聚过程首先以经济集聚和土地的非农化过程为主,其次是城镇人口的集聚,最后是社会生活水平的提高;（3）以固定资产投资为代表的政府行政力是推动天山北坡经济带城镇集聚的重要力量之一,其对行政级别越高,工业化水平越高城镇的集聚作用更强;（4）不同时期天山北坡经济带固定资产投资对城镇集聚的作用效应并不相同,初期投资主要促进城镇人口和空间规模的扩大,对城镇经济集聚作用较小;末期投资对城镇经济集聚、人口与空间规模均具有明显的促进作用,对社会人均基础设施及生活水平有较小的负作用。     

开垦对科尔沁沙地土壤团聚体分布及稳定性的影响

选取科尔沁地区不同开垦年限玉米田,以沙质草地为对照,采用湿筛法测定了 0-40 cm土壤各粒径团聚体分布状况,以大于0.25 mm水稳性团聚体的含量(W0.25)、平均重量直径(MWD)、几何平均直径(GMD)、分形维数(D)和土壤可蚀性因子(K)为稳定性评价指标,研究随着开垦年限和土层深度变化下土壤水稳性团聚体的含量...     

Spatial characteristics of the stability of mangrove ecosystems in freshwater and seawater floods in Southeast Asia

Journal of Geographical Sciences - In tropical regions, mangrove forests are located in the inter-tidal areas between land and sea, and are at risk from both freshwater and seawater floods. Using...     

黑河下游尾闾区植物群落物种多样性与稳定性格局

黑河下游尾闾区作为西北干旱区典型的脆弱生态系统,其植物群落物种多样性与稳定性对维持该地区生态安全和可持续发展具有重要意义.以黑河下游尾闾区荒漠植被为研究对象,采用K-Means聚类,基于距河道距离及其对应的土壤含水量数据,将黑河下游尾闾区垂直于河道0-4 km区域可分为距河0-0.3 km(T0-03)、0.3-1.7...     

乌鲁木齐大气混合层厚度和稳定度与大气污染的关系

利用乌鲁木齐市4座10层100 m梯度气象塔2013年6月~2014年4月气象观测资料和7个环境监测站[WTBX]AQI[WTBZ]资料,计算并分析了大气混合层厚度和稳定度特征,探讨了大气混合层厚度和稳定度与污染的关系。结果表明：乌鲁木齐市混合层厚度夏季郊区高、城区低,冬季从南郊—城区—北郊随地势降低依次降低;夏季和冬季分别在1 559～1 772 m和526～1 156 m之间。地面至2 km以上每500 m高度间隔统计混合层厚度,500～1 000 m出现频率最多;月变化为6～9月基本在500 m以上,且每个高度区间其概率均超过10%,10月～次年2月1 500 m以上区间概率明显减小;日变化为中午13:00～16:00达到最高值,下午和傍晚迅速下降。白天较大的感热输送提供充足的热力条件,这也体现出白天以不稳定层结为主,夜间则以稳定层结为主。大气稳定度分类结果,夏季郊区和城区不稳定（A～C类）所占比例差不多,冬季北郊稳定（E、F类）所占比较最大、城区最弱。[WTBX]AQI指数冬季最大,从南郊—城区—北郊依次增大,这与采暖期污染物多、南郊比北郊地势高有利于扩散输送有关。总体来看,乌鲁木齐大气混合层厚度空间分布与气象要素、大气稳定度、地形等密切相关,对AQI[WTBZ]指数分布有重要影响,这对近地层大气污染状况预报有着重要的指导意义。