江淮地区布格重力异常与中强地震发生的构造环境分析

通过对布格重力异常等值线的离散化、梯度计算和粗化处理，生成江淮地区布格重力异常梯度分级图。布格重力异常高梯度区与中强地震的空间分布有很好的一致性，与低梯度分布区的弱地震活动性形成鲜明的对比。同时，布格重力异常高梯度区的分布具有线性展布特点，可以划分出两组布格重力异常梯级带，一组走向北东，另一组走向北西西。同方向的条带具有相互平行、间距近似相等的特点，不同方向的构造带相互交切，形成一幅网络状图象。沿着这些梯级带存在断裂构造，它们在晚第三纪至第四纪早期有过构造运动，但晚更新世以来活动不明显。在江淮地区，布格重力异常梯级带、晚第三纪至早第四纪活动断裂和中强地震在空间有比较明显的对应关系。因此，在现今构造活动不太强烈的地区，布格重力异常梯级带可以认为是划分中强地震潜在震源区的一个重要标志。     

河西地区重力变化与2013年门源MS5.1地震研究

基于2010年5月—2013年10月的6期在河西地区流动重力测量资料获得的重力场时空变化结果,分析该区近期重力场变化及与2013年门源MS5.1地震的关系。结果表明：河西地区重力场变化空间分布显示在活动断裂附近重力变化较大,沿祁连山北缘断裂、昌马—门源断裂及庄浪河断裂形成与断裂带走向基本一致的重力变化高梯度带,反映了断裂构造活动引起的重力局部异常变化特征。2013年门源MS5.1地震发生在重力变化的高梯度带附近。     

雅江6.0级地震前后的重力变化异常特征

对川西地区2000～2001年雅江—康定间6．0级地震前后的重力观测资料进行了处理，绘制了重力场变化等值线图和三维曲面图，从动态的观点研究了雅江地震前后重力场的图像变化特征。结果表明：①重力变化与构造环境变化有关，地震前重力场有明显的异常变化。②雅江地震前后重力场空间分布图较好地反映了鲜水河断裂带及北西向的理塘断裂和北东的玉龙西断裂构造活动弓l起的重力变化。③地震发生在重力异常下降区及高梯度带附近。     

2003年民乐MS6.1级地震前的重力变化研究

以河西地区的流动重力监测资料为基础,分析了2003年10月25日民乐Ms6．1级地震前的重力场变化,认为在空间分布上,地震发生前观测区出现了区域性的重力异常变化及与构造活动断裂走向基本一致的重力变化高梯度带,并在震中或邻区产生局部重力变化异常区。在时间序列上,地震发生前,重力段差和重力测点先是增强,然后反向减弱,并在反向过程中发震。     

山西断陷带地热分布的某些特征

利用山西断陷带的大地热流、地温梯度和温泉分布的资料，研究了地热分布与重力场、地壳深部构造和地震分布的关系。认为，区域性重力负异常多反映的是沉积盆地或凹陷；而在温泉附近，由于地壳深部高密度的熔融物质沿断裂上涌而形成重力正异常；在同一深度上，地壳和岩石圈薄的断陷盆地内部，其热流和温度都为高值；指出山西断陷带内的构造活动性、壳幔突变带、重磁力等值线密集带、大地热流和地温梯度高值区以及温泉密集分布带与地震活动之间都有着内在的联系。     

2017年四川九寨沟MS7.0地震前区域重力场变化

利用南北地震带2014-2017年期间的流动重力观测资料,系统分析了区域重力场变化及其与2017年8月8日四川九寨沟7.0级地震发生的关系.结果表明：①区域重力场异常变化与北西西向塔藏断裂和南北向岷江断裂带在空间上关系密切,反映了沿控震断裂在2013-2017年期间发生了引起地表重力变化效应的地壳变形和构造活动.②九寨沟地震前,测区内出现了大空间范围的区域性重力异常,而震源区附近产生了局部重力异常,沿塔藏断裂带形成了重力变化高梯度带,其中,甘肃玛曲、迭部、青海河南蒙古族自治县、四川若尔盖、九寨沟一带重力差异变化达100×10^-8m·s^-2以上;这些可能反映九寨沟地震前,区域及震源区附近均产生与该地震孕育、发生有关的构造运动或应力增强作用.③九寨沟地震震中位于重力差异运动剧烈的鞍部等值线附近,与断裂走向基本一致的重力变化高梯度带零值线上,这一观测事实进一步佐证了重力场动态变化图像对强震地点预测具有重要的指示意义.     

川滇地区重力场动态变化及其强震危险含义

基于川滇地区2011—2014年的重力复测资料,系统分析了区域重力场时-空动态变化及其与2012年云南彝良MS5.7、2013年四川芦山MS7.0、2014年云南鲁甸MS6.5和四川康定MS6.3地震发生的关系.结合GPS、水准观测成果和区域地质构造动力环境,进一步研究了区域重力场变化的时空分布特征及其机理,讨论了近期区域重力场动态变化的强震危险含义.结果表明:1重力变化与川滇地区断裂构造活动存在密切空间联系,重力变化较好地反映了伴随活动断层的物质迁移和构造变形引起的地表重力变化效应.2重力资料对测区内2012年以来发生的4次MS5.7以上强震均有较好反映,地震前震中区及其附近观测到明显的区域性重力异常及重力变化高梯度带,可能是地震孕育过程中观测到的重力前兆信息.3区域重力场动态演化大体反映了青藏高原物质东流的动态效应,龙门山断裂带地壳受挤压隆起、面压缩率和重力上升变化的特征最为显著.4重力场的空间分布及其随时间变化与地壳垂直与水平运动及地质构造活动等观测结果有一定的对应关系,强震易发生在重力变化四象限分布中心地带或正、负异常区过渡的高梯度带上,研究区的一些重力异常部位仍存在中-长期大震危险背景.     

2016年青海门源MS6.4地震前重力变化

利用青藏高原东北缘2011-2015年期间的流动重力观测资料,系统分析了区域重力场变化及其与2016年1月21日青海门源M_S6.4地震发生的关系,结合GNSS、水准观测成果和区域地质构造动力环境,进一步研究了区域重力场变化的时空分布特征及其机理.结果表明：（1）测区内重力场异常变化与祁连山断裂带在空间上关系密切,反映沿祁连山断裂带（段）在2011-2015年期间发生了引起地表重力变化效应的构造活动或变形.（2）门源M_S6.4地震前,测区内先出现了较大空间范围的区域性重力异常,到临近发震前显示出相对闭锁的现象,且围绕震中区周围出现四象限分布特征的局部重力变化,地震发生在重力反向变化过程中,并出现显著的四象限分布特征的重力异常变化,其中,青海门源与甘肃天祝一带重力差异变化达100×10^-8m·s^-2以上.（3）区域重力场动态演化大体反映了青藏高原东北缘物质北东流的动态效应,门源震中附近区域地壳受挤压变形显著、面压缩率和重力剧烈变化的特征最为显著.（4）重力场的空间分布及其随时间变化与地壳垂直与水平运动及地质构造活动等观测结果有一定的对应关系,强震易发生在重力变化四象限分布中心地带或正、负异常区过渡的高梯度带上.     

2013年甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震前后重力场动态变化

利用青藏高原东北缘2011-2013年期间的流动重力观测资料,系统分析了区域重力场动态变化及其与2013年7月22 H岷县漳县6.6级地震发生的关系.结果表明:1)测区内重力场异常变化与主要断裂带在空间上关系密切,反映沿主要断裂带(段)在2011-2013年期间发生了引起地表重力变化效应的构造活动或变形.2)岷县漳县6.6级地震前,测区内先出现了较大空间范围的区域性重力异常,后在震源区附近产生了局部重力异常及重力变化高梯度带,其中,甘肃临夏与岷县一带重力差异变化达150×10 8ms-2以上;这些可能反映岷县漳县地震前,区域及震源区附近均产生与该地震孕育、发生有关的构造运动或应力增强作用.3)重力场1a尺度动态变化图像和差分动态演化图像均反映岷县漳县6.6级地震孕育过程的最后2a出现较显著的流动重力异常变化,地震发生在NE向重力变化高梯度带上、重力变化零值线附近和等值线的拐弯部位.4)基于流动重力异常变化在岷县漳县6.6级地震前做过一定程度的中期预测,尤其是地点判定.     

青藏高原东北缘近期重力与地壳形变综合分析与研究

利用青藏高原东北缘2011—2014年期间的流动重力与GPS观测资料和1970—2011年水准观测获得的垂直运动背景场资料,结合区域地质构造动力环境和区内发生的强震事件,系统分析了区域重力场变化、地壳三维形变与区域构造环境和强震活动的关系,进一步研究和探讨了区域重力场变化与区域三维地壳运动的时空分布特征及其机理。结果表明:1)测区内重力场变化与GPS观测反映的水平运动和水准观测反映的垂直运动在空间上关系密切,地壳形变总体表现为沿水平运动的方向重力增加,高原山地挤压隆升,地面重力减少;断陷盆地相对伸展下沉,地面重力增加,反映了新构造活动的继承性。2)地壳形变场变化与活动断裂密切相关,重力变化和垂直形变等值线走向总体上与呈NWW向的祁连-海原断裂走向基本一致,水平形变也在祁连-海原断裂附近产生明显的左旋走滑运动。3)强震易发生在具有显著重力变化的活动断裂带上,也易发生在沿活动性断裂的断块垂直差异运动强烈或兼有强走滑运动的地方。2016年门源震中附近区域地壳受挤压变形显著、面压缩率和重力剧烈变化的特征最为显著。2013年岷县漳县6.6级地震发生在重力变化高梯度带拐弯的地区,也是面压缩率变化过渡带和垂直形变过渡带地区。4)文中第一作者等曾基于该区地壳形变资料在岷县、门源地震前做过一定程度的中期预测,尤其是地点预测。基于上述认识,进而强调在研究区形成的一些地壳形变异常部位可能仍存在中长期强震/大震危险背景。     

基于BP神经网络的地震伤亡人数评估体系研究

本文综合考察了地震中影响伤亡人数的各种因素,提出了一个地震伤亡人数的预测模型,可为地震应急工作提供指导与参考。该模型基于BP人工神经网络,需要结合利用地理信息系统（GIS）、人口数据、历史地震数据等,来完成预测每次地震中的伤亡人数。     

中国地区地磁静日变化场Sq（H）时空分布特征

利用中国地震局“十五”数字化地磁观测台网资料,分析了中国地区水平磁场静日变化场Sq（H）的时空分布特征,得出以下结论：Sq焦点的空间运行轨迹为：春秋季大致沿泉州贵阳一西昌一拉萨一狮泉河这样一个略倾斜于地磁赤道的条带运动,冬季倾斜条带北移约5°～10°;Sq（H）变幅由南北两侧向焦点方向递减;此外,相对于春秋季而言,冬季Sq焦点到达时间明显滞后,在中国境内的空间运行时间明显缩短。     

A study of transient variations in the Earth’s electromagnetic field at equatorial electrojet latitudes in western Africa (Mali and the Ivory Coast)

In the framework of the French-Ivorian participation to the IEEY, a network of 10 electromagnetic stations were installed at African longitudes. The aim of this experiment was twofold: firstly, to study the magnetic signature of the equatorial electrojet on the one hand, and secondly, to characterize the induced electric field variations on the other hand. The first results of the magnetic field investigations were presented by Doumouya and coworkers. Those of the electric field experiment will be discussed in this study. The electromagnetic experiment will be described. The analysis of the electromagnetic transient variations was conducted in accordance with the classical distinction between quiet and disturbed magnetic situations. A morphological analysis of the recordings is given, taking into consideration successively quiet and disturbed magnetic situations, with the results interpreted in terms of the characterization of external and internal sources. Particular attention was paid to the effects of the source characteristics on the induced field of internal origin, and to the bias they may consequently cause to the results of electromagnetic probing of the Earth; the source effect in electromagnetic induction studies. During quiet magnetic situations, our results demonstrated the existence of two different sources. One of these, the S_R^E source, was responsible for most of the magnetic diurnal variation and corresponded to the well-known magnetic signature of the equatorial electrojet. The other source (the S_R*^E source) was responsible for most of the electric diurnal variation, and was also likely to be an ionospheric source. Electric and magnetic diurnal variations are therefore related to different ionospheric sources, and interpreting the electric diurnal variation as induced by the magnetic field diurnal variation is not relevant. Furthermore, the magnetotelluric probing of the upper mantle at dip equator latitudes with the electromagnetic diurnal variation is consequently impossible to perform. In the case of irregular variations, the source effect related to the equatorial electrojet is also discussed. A Gaussian model of equatorial electrojet was considered, and apparent resistivities were computed for two models of stratified Earth corresponding to the average resistive structure of the two tectonic provinces crossed by the profile: a sedimentary basin and a cratonic shield. The apparent resistivity curves were found to depend significantly on both the model used and the distance to the center of the electrojet. These numerical results confirm the existence of a daytime source effect related to the equatorial electrojet. Furthermore, we show that the results account for the observed differences between daytime and night-time apparent resistivity curves. In particular, it was shown that electromagnetic probing of the Earth using the classical Cagniard-Tikhonov magnetotelluric method is impossible with daytime recordings made at dip latitude stations.     

Investigation of trace metals distribution in water,sediments and wetland plants of K(i)z(i)l(i)rmak Delta,Turkey

In this study,accumulation and distribution of Pb,Cu,Zn,Co,Ni,Mn and Fe in water,bottom sediments and four plant species (Myriophyllum verticillatum,Hydrocharis morsus-ranae,Nymphaea alba and Typha latifolia) were investigated in (C)ernek Lake of Kizihrmak Delta.The Kizdirmak Delta is one of the largest natural wetlands of Turkey and it is protected by the Ramsar convention since 1993.Selected physico-chemical parameters such as pH,conductivity and dissolved oxygen and also trace metal concentrations were monitored in water.All the parameters obtained were found higher than that of the national standards for the protected lakes and reserves.The accumulated amounts of various trace metals in bottom sediments and wetland plants were found in the following order of Fe ＞ Mn ＞ Zn ＞ Ni ＞ Co ＞ Cu ＞ Pb and Fe ＞ Mn ＞ Zn ＞ Ni ＞ Co respectively.The historical trace metal intake of Myriophyllum verticillatum,Hydrocharis morsus-ranae,Typha latifolia and Nymphaea alba were obtained higher than that of the toxic metal levels and these plants may be accepted as accumulators for the detected trace metals and also bioindicators in the historically polluted natural areas.     

Cluster regression model and level fluctuation features of Van Lake, Turkey

Lake water levels change under the influences of natural and/or anthropogenic environmental conditions. Among these influences are the climate change, greenhouse effects and ozone layer depletions which are reflected in the hydrological cycle features over the lake drainage basins. Lake levels are among the most significant hydrological variables that are influenced by different atmospheric and environmental conditions. Consequently, lake level time series in many parts of the world include nonstationarity components such as shifts in the mean value, apparent or hidden periodicities. On the other hand, many lake level modeling techniques have a stationarity assumption. The main purpose of this work is to develop a cluster regression model for dealing with nonstationarity especially in the form of shifting means. The basis of this model is the combination of transition probability and classical regression technique. Both parts of the model are applied to monthly level fluctuations of Lake Van in eastern Turkey. It is observed that the cluster regression procedure does preserve the statistical properties and the transitional probabilities that are indistinguishable from the original data.     

Comparative study of electron density from incoherent scatter measurements at Arecibo with the IRI-95 model during solar maximum

Arecibo (18.4 N, 66.7 W) incoherent scatter (IS) observations of electron density N(h) are compared with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-95) during midday (10/14 h), for summer, winter and equinox, at solar maximum (1981). The N(h) profiles below the F2 peak, are normalized to the peak density NmF2 of the F region and are then compared with the IRI-95 model using both the standard B0 (old option) and the Gulyaeva-B0 thickness (new option). The thickness parameter B0 is obtained from the observed electron density profiles and compared with those obtained from the IRI-95 using both the options. Our studies indicate that during summer and equinox, in general, the values of electron densities at all the heights given by the IRI model (new option), are generally larger than those obtained from IS measurements. However, during winter, the agreement between the IRI and the observed values is reasonably good in the bottom part of the F2 layer but IRI underestimates electron density at F1 layer heights. The IRI profiles obtained with the old option gives much better results than those generated with the new option. Compared to the observations, the IRI profiles are found to be much thicker using Gulyaeva-B0 option than using standard B0.     

第11届国际土动力学和地震工程会议及第13届世界地震工程会议砂土液化研究综述

最近国际上土动力学和岩土地震工程方面召开了两次重大学术会议,即2004年1月在美国Berkeley召开的第11届国际土动力学和地震工程学术会议(11thSDEE)以及和2004年8月在加拿大温哥华召开的第13届世界地震工程大会(13thWCEE),对这两次会议中有关砂土液化方面的研究进行综述,力求反映液化研究方面的最新研究进展和发展趋势。     

The equatorial F-layer: progress and puzzles

This work reviews some aspects of the ionospheric F-layer in the vicinity of the geomagnetic equator. Starting with a historical introduction, brief summaries are given of the physics that makes the equatorial ionosphere so interesting, concentrating on the large-scale structure rather than the smaller-scale instability phenomena. Several individual topics are then discussed, including eclipse effects, the asymmetries of the equatorial trough, variations with longitude, the semiannual variation, the effects of the global thermospheric circulation, and finally the equatorial neutral thermosphere, including superrotation and possible topographic influences.     

Evidence for tidal triggering on the earthquakes of the Hellenic Arc,Greece

In this paper we investigate the tidal triggering evidence on the earthquakes of the seismic area of the Hellenic Arc using the Hist(ogram)Cum(mulation) method. We analyze the series of the earthquakes occurred in the area which is confined by the longitudes 22° and 28°E and latitudes 34° and 36°N in the time period from 1964 to 2012. In this time period 16,137 shallow and of intermediate depth earthquakes with M_L up to 6.0 and 1,482 deep earthquakes with M_L up to 6.2 occurred. The result of the this analysis indicate that the monthly variation of the frequencies of earthquake occurrence is in accordance with the period of the tidal lunar monthly variations, and the same happens with the corresponding daily variations of the frequencies of earthquake occurrence with the diurnal luni-solar (K1) and semidiurnal solar (S2) tidal variations. These results are in favor of a tidal triggering process on earthquakes when the stress in the focal area is near the critical level.