Recent Advances in Bolide Entry Modeling:A Bolide Potpourri*

In this paper, we will review recent research on numerous aspects of bolide entry into a planetary atmosphere, including such topics as the entry dynamics, energetics, ablation, deceleration, fragmentation, luminosity, mechanical wave generation processes, a total (panchromatic) power budget including differential and integral efficiencies vs. time, etc. Fragmentation, triggered by stagnation pressures exceeding the bolide breaking strength, has been included with subsequent wake behavior in either a collective or non-collective behavior limit. We have also utilized the differential panchromatic luminous efficiency of ReVelle and Ceplecha (2002c, Proceedings of Asteroids, Comets, Meteors ACM 2002, 29 July–2August, 285–288) to compute bolide luminosity. In addition we also introduce the concept of the differential and integral acoustic/infrasonic efficiency and generalized it to the case of mechanical wave efficiency including internal atmospheric gravity waves generated during entry. Unlike the other efficiencies which are assumed to be a constant multiple of the luminous efficiency, the acoustic efficiency is calculated independently using a 'first principles' approach. All of these topics have been pursued using either a homogeneous or a porous meteoroid model with great success. As a direct result, porosity seems to be a rather good possibility for explaining anomalous meteoroid behavior in the atmosphere.     

Recent Advances in Bolide Entry Modeling: A Bolide Potpourri

In this paper, we will review recent research on numerous aspects of bolide entry into a planetary atmosphere, including such topics as the entry dynamics, energetics, ablation, deceleration, fragmentation, luminosity, mechanical wave generation processes, a total (panchromatic) power budget including differential and integral efficiencies versus time, etc. Fragmentation, triggered by stagnation pressures exceeding the bolide breaking strength, has been subsequently included in either a collective or non-collective wake behavior limit. We have also utilized the differential panchromatic luminous efficiency of ReVelle and Ceplecha (2002) to compute bolide luminosity. In addition we also introduce the concept of the differential and integral acoustic/infrasonic efficiency and generalized it to the case of mechanical wave efficiency including internal atmospheric gravity waves generated during entry. Unlike the other efficiencies which are assumed to be a constant multiple of the luminous efficiency, the acoustic efficiency is calculated independently using a “first principles” approach. All of these topics have been pursued using either a homogeneous or a porous meteoroid model with great success. As a direct result, porosity seems to be a rather good possibility for explaining anomalous meteoroid behavior in the atmosphere. Invited Paper Presented at Meteoroids 2004; Presented at University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada, August 16–20, 2004     

Fireballs: Interpretation of airblast data

Abstract— When a meteoroid passes through the Earth's atmosphere, it may generate acoustic waves in the form of a conical shock front and again in an explosive terminal burst. These acoustic waves reach the ground and their arrival times may be recorded on seismograms. Equations are given (with numerical examples, and for various atmospheric models) to recover the track of the meteoroid, and possibly the meteorite, from times of arrival at the seismographic stations.     

Meteorites from meteor showers: A case study of the Taurids

We propose that the Taurid meteor shower may contain bodies able to survive and be recovered as meteorites. We review the expected properties of meteorite‐producing fireballs, and suggest that end heights below 35 km and terminal speeds below 10 km s^?1 are necessary conditions for fireballs expected to produce meteorites. Applying the meteoroid strength index (PE criteria) of Ceplecha and McCrosky (1976) to a suite of 33 photographically recorded Taurid fireballs, we find a large spread in the apparent meteoroid strengths within the stream, including some very strong meteoroids. We also examine in detail the flight behavior of a Taurid fireball (SOMN 101031) and show that it has the potential to be a (small) meteorite‐producing event. Similarly, photographic observations of a bright, potential Taurid fireball recorded in November of 1995 in Spain show that it also had meteorite‐producing characteristics, despite a very high entry velocity (33 km s^?1). Finally, we note that the recent Maribo meteorite fall may have had a very high entry velocity (28 km s^?1), further suggesting that survival of meteorites at Taurid‐like velocities is possible. Application of a numerical entry model also shows plausible survival of meteorites at Taurid‐like velocities, provided the initial meteoroids are fairly strong and large, both of which are characteristics found in the Taurid stream.     

The Morávka meteorite fall: 3. Meteoroid initial size,history, structure,and composition

Abstract— The properties and history of the parent meteoroid of the Morávka H5–6 ordinary chondrites have been studied by a combination of various methods. The pre‐atmospheric mass of the meteoroid was computed from fireball radiation, infrasound, seismic signal, and the content of noble gases in the meteorites. All methods gave consistent results. The best estimate of the pre‐atmospheric mass is 1500 ± 500 kg. The fireball integral bolometric luminous efficiency was 9%, and the acoustic efficiency was 0.14%. The meteoroid cosmic ray exposure age was determined to be (6.7 ± 1.0) × 10⁶ yr. The meteorite shows a clear deficit of helium, both ³He and ⁴He. This deficit can be explained by solar heating. Numerical backward integration of the meteoroid orbit (determined in a previous paper from video records of the fireball) shows that the perihelion distance was probably lower than 0.5 AU and possibly as low as 0.1 AU 5 Ma ago. The collision which excavated Morávka probably occurred while the parent body was on a near‐Earth orbit, as opposed to being confined entirely to the main asteroid belt. An overview of meteorite macroscopic properties, petrology, mineralogy, and chemical composition is given. The meteorites show all mineralogical features of H chondrites. The shock level is S2. Minor deviations from other H chondrites in abundances of trace elements La, Ce, Cs, and Rb were found. The ablation crust is enriched with siderophile elements.     

Comparing analytical and numerical approaches to meteoroid orbit determination using Hayabusa telemetry

Fireball networks establish the trajectories of meteoritic material passing through Earth's atmosphere, from which they can derive pre‐entry orbits. Triangulated atmospheric trajectory data require different orbit determination methods to those applied to observational data beyond the Earth's sphere of influence, such as telescopic observations of asteroids. Currently, the vast majority of fireball networks determine and publish orbital data using an analytical approach, with little flexibility to include orbital perturbations. Here, we present a novel numerical technique for determining meteoroid orbits from fireball network data and compare it to previously established methods. The re‐entry of the Hayabusa spacecraft, with its known pre‐Earth orbit, provides a unique opportunity to perform this comparison as it was observed by fireball network cameras. As initial sightings of the Hayabusa spacecraft and capsule were made at different altitudes, we are able to quantify the atmosphere's influence on the determined pre‐Earth orbit. Considering these trajectories independently, we found the orbits determined by the novel numerical approach to align closer to JAXA's telemetry in both cases. Using simulations, we determine the atmospheric perturbation to become significant at ~90 km—higher than the first observations of typical meteorite dropping events. Using further simulations, we find the most substantial differences between techniques to occur at both low entry velocities and Moon passing trajectories. These regions of comparative divergence demonstrate the need for perturbation inclusion within the chosen orbit determination algorithm.     

Air penetration enhances fragmentation of entering meteoroids

The entry and subsequent breakup of the ~17–20 m diameter Chelyabinsk meteoroid deposited approximately 500 kT of TNT equivalent energy to the atmosphere, causing extensive damage that underscored the hazard from small asteroid impacts. The breakup of the meteoroid was characterized by intense fragmentation that dispersed most of the original mass. In models of the entry process, the apparent mechanical strength of the meteoroid during fragmentation, ~1–5 MPa, is two orders of magnitude lower than the mechanical strength of the surviving meteorites, ~330 MPa. We implement a two-material computer code that allows us to fully simulate the exchange of energy and momentum between the entering meteoroid and the interacting atmospheric air. Our simulations reveal a previously unrecognized process in which the penetration of high-pressure air into the body of the meteoroid greatly enhances the deformation and facilitates the breakup of meteoroids similar to the size of Chelyabinsk. We discuss the mechanism of air penetration that accounts for the bulk fragmentation of an entering meteoroid under conditions similar to those at Chelyabinsk, to explain the surprisingly low values of the apparent strength of the meteoroid during breakup.     

The Winchcombe fireball—That lucky survivor

On February 28, 2021, a fireball dropped ∼0.6 kg of recovered CM2 carbonaceous chondrite meteorites in South-West England near the town of Winchcombe. We reconstruct the fireball's atmospheric trajectory, light curve, fragmentation behavior, and pre-atmospheric orbit from optical records contributed by five networks. The progenitor meteoroid was three orders of magnitude less massive (∼13 kg) than any previously observed carbonaceous fall. The Winchcombe meteorite survived entry because it was exposed to a very low peak atmospheric dynamic pressure (∼0.6 MPa) due to a fortuitous combination of entry parameters, notably low velocity (13.9 km s⁻¹). A near-catastrophic fragmentation at ∼0.07 MPa points to the body's fragility. Low entry speeds which cause low peak dynamic pressures are likely necessary conditions for a small carbonaceous meteoroid to survive atmospheric entry, strongly constraining the radiant direction to the general antapex direction. Orbital integrations show that the meteoroid was injected into the near-Earth region ∼0.08 Myr ago and it never had a perihelion distance smaller than ∼0.7 AU, while other CM2 meteorites with known orbits approached the Sun closer (∼0.5 AU) and were heated to at least 100 K higher temperatures.     

Analysis of a “flickering” Geminid fireball

Abstract— In the early morning hours of December 13, 2002, a bright Geminid fireball with an absolute magnitude of ?9.2 ± 0.5 was observed from Southern Saskatchewan, Canada. The fireball displayed distinct small‐scale oscillations in brightness, or flickering, indicative of the parent meteoroid being both non‐spherical and rotating. Using the light curve derived from a calibrated radiometer, we determine a photometric mass of 0.429 ± 0.15 kg for the meteoroid, and we estimate from its initial rotation rate of some 6 Hz that the meteoroid was ejected from the parent body (3200) Phaethon some 2500 ± 500 years ago. We find that 70% of Geminid fireballs brighter than magnitude ?3 display distinct flickering effects, a value that is in stark contrast to the 18% flickering rate exhibited by sporadic fireballs. The high coincidence of flickering and the deep atmospheric penetration of Geminid fireballs are suggestive of Geminid meteoroids having a highly resilient structure, a consequence, we suggest, of their having suffered a high degree of thermal processing. The possibility of Gemind material surviving atmospheric ablation and being sampled is briefly discussed, but the likelihood of collecting and identifying any such material is admittedly very small.     

Matching cometary ejection processes to the Leonids 1998–2001 using a hybrid numerical model

A new scheme for simulating meteor showers is introduced, based on a hybridization of current numerical modelling techniques. It involves an iterative method that generates particles which hit a real-scale Earth, removing the spatial and temporal blurring common to other modelling techniques. The scheme is applied to the activity profile of the Leonids 2001 using three different models of meteoroid ejection velocity and then applied to the Leonids 1998–2000 using the most favourable models. It is shown that to reproduce the observed meteor activity profiles there must be a strong concentration of ejection around perihelion. The modelling also implies that meteoroid density must be towards the higher end of the currently acceptable range, although the derived limits are not independent of the ejection velocity model. We also find that the extreme narrowness of Leonid activity peaks is not easily reproduced with outgassing over the entire day side of the comet but it is fitted well by outgassing in a restricted direction as one would expect from an outgassing jet. In addition, we show that double-peaked features, corresponding to a semihollow meteoroid streamlet, can arise in a meteor shower activity profile from outgassing during a single perihelion passage of the parent comet. It is suggested that this process caused the double-peaked feature in the first maxima of the 2001 Leonids.     

The Košice meteorite fall: Atmospheric trajectory,fragmentation, and orbit

The Ko?ice meteorite fall occurred in eastern Slovakia on February 28, 2010, 22:25 UT. The very bright bolide was imaged by three security video cameras from Hungary. Detailed bolide light curves were obtained through clouds by radiometers on seven cameras of the European Fireball Network. Records of sonic waves were found on six seismic and four infrasonic stations. An atmospheric dust cloud was observed the next morning before sunrise. After careful calibration, the video records were used to compute the bolide trajectory and velocity. The meteoroid, of estimated mass of 3500 kg, entered the atmosphere with a velocity of 15 km s^?1 on a trajectory with a slope of 60° to the horizontal. The largest fragment ceased to be visible at a height of 17 km, where it was decelerated to 4.5 km s^?1. A maximum brightness of absolute stellar magnitude about ?18 was reached at a height of 36 km. We developed a detailed model of meteoroid atmospheric fragmentation to fit the observed light curve and deceleration. We found that Ko?ice was a weak meteoroid, which started to fragment under the dynamic pressure of only 0.1 MPa and fragmented heavily under 1 MPa. In total, 78 meteorites were recovered in the predicted fall area during official searches. Other meteorites were found by private collectors. Known meteorite masses ranged from 0.56 g to 2.37 kg. The meteorites were classified as ordinary chondrites of type H5 and shock stage S3. The heliocentric orbit had a relatively large semimajor axis of 2.7 AU and aphelion distance of 4.5 ± 0.5 AU. Backward numerical integration of the preimpact orbit indicates possible large variations of the orbital elements in the past due to resonances with Jupiter.     

Sputtering and high altitude meteors

Conventional ablation theory assumes that a meteoroid undergoes intensive heating during atmospheric flight and surface atoms are liberated through thermal processes. Our research has indicated that physical sputtering could play a significant role in meteoroid mass loss. Using a 4th order Runge-Kutta numerical integration technique, we tabulated the mass loss due to the two ablation mechanisms and computed the fraction of total mass lost due to sputtering. We modeled cometary structure meteoroids with masses ranging from 10⁻¹³ to 10⁻³ kg and velocities ranging from 11.2 to 71 km s⁻¹. Our results indicate that a significant fraction of the mass loss for small, fast meteors is due to sputtering, particularly in the early portion of the light curve. In the past 6 years evidence has emerged for meteor luminosity at heights greater than can be explained by conventional ablation theory. We have applied our sputtering model and find excellent agreement with these observations, and therefore suggest that sputtered material accounts for the new type of radiation found at great heights.     

A MODEL OF SINGLE AND FRAGMENTING METEOROID INTERACTION WITH ISOTHERMAL AND NON-ISOTHERMAL ATMOSPHERE

The basic equations of physical theory of meteors are considered without the assumption of atmospheric isothermality. Analytical solutions are found in the case of single and fragmenting meteoroids, the fragmentation process being modeled in terms of the statistical theory of strength (Weibull, 1939). The comparison against a classical solution is made for the single body model. The comparisons against the observations and gross-fragmentation model results are made for a fragmenting meteoroid. An example of parametric investigations based on the obtained solutions is provided.     

The Morávka meteorite fall: 2. Interpretation of infrasonic and seismic data

Abstract— The sound production from the Morávka fireball has been examined in detail making use of infrasound and seismic data. A detailed analysis of the production and propagation of sonic waves during the atmospheric entry of the Morávka meteoroid demonstrates that the acoustic energy was produced both by the hypersonic flight of the meteoroid (producing a cylindrical blast wave) and by individual fragmentation events of the meteoroid, which acted as small explosions (producing quasispherical shock waves). The deviation of the ray normals for the fragmentation events was found to be as much as 30° beyond that expected from a purely cylindrical line source blast. The main fragmentation of the bolide was confined to heights above 30 km with a possible maximum in acoustic energy production near 38 km. Seismic stations recorded both the direct arrival of the airwaves (the strongest signal) as well as air‐coupled P‐waves and Rayleigh waves (earlier signals). In addition, deep underground stations detected the seismic signature of the fireball. The seismic data alone permit reconstruction of the fireball trajectory to a precision on the order of a few degrees. The velocity of the meteoroid is much less well‐determined by these seismic data. The more distant infrasonic station detected 3 distinct signals from the fireball, identified as a thermospheric return, a stratospheric return, and an unusual mode propagating through the stratosphere horizontally and then leaking to the receiver.     

Park Forest (L5) and the asteroidal source of shocked L chondrites

The Park Forest (L5) meteorite fell in a suburb of Chicago, Illinois (USA) on March 26, 2003. It is one of the currently 25 meteorites for which photographic documentation of the fireball enabled the reconstruction of the meteoroid orbit. The combination of orbits with pre‐atmospheric sizes, cosmic‐ray exposure (CRE), and radiogenic gas retention ages (“cosmic histories”) is significant because they can be used to constrain the meteoroid's “birth region,” and test models of meteoroid delivery. Using He, Ne, Ar, ¹⁰Be, and ²⁶Al, as well as a dynamical model, we show that the Park Forest meteoroid had a pre‐atmospheric size close to 180 g cm^?2, 0–40% porosity, and a pre‐atmospheric mass range of ~2–6 tons. It has a CRE age of 14 ± 2 Ma, and (U, Th)‐He and K‐Ar ages of 430 ± 90 and 490 ± 70 Ma, respectively. Of the meteorites with photographic orbits, Park Forest is the second (after Novato) that was shocked during the L chondrite parent body (LCPB) break‐up event approximately 470 Ma ago. The suggested association of this event with the formation of the Gefion family of asteroids has recently been challenged and we suggest the Ino family as a potential alternative source for the shocked L chondrites. The location of the LCPB break‐up event close to the 5:2 resonance also allows us to put some constraints on the possible orbital migration paths of the Park Forest meteoroid.     

The Žďár nad Sázavou meteorite fall: Fireball trajectory,photometry, dynamics,fragmentation, orbit,and meteorite recovery

We report a comprehensive analysis of the instrumentally observed meteorite fall ??ár nad Sázavou, which occurred in the Czech Republic on December 9, 2014, at 16:16:45–54 UT. The original meteoroid with an estimated initial mass of 150 kg entered the atmosphere with a speed of 21.89 km s^?1 and began a luminous trajectory at an altitude of 98.06 km. At the maximum, it reached ?15.26 absolute magnitude and terminated after a 9.16 s and 170.5 km long flight at an altitude of 24.71 km with a speed of 4.8 km/s. The average slope of the atmospheric trajectory to the Earth's surface was only 25.66°. Before its collision with Earth, the initial meteoroid orbited the Sun on a moderately eccentric orbit with perihelion near Venus orbit, aphelion in the outer main belt, and low inclination. During the atmospheric entry, the meteoroid severely fragmented at a very low dynamic pressure 0.016 MPa and further multiple fragmentations occurred at 1.4–2.5 MPa. Based on our analysis, so far three small meteorites classified as L3.9 ordinary chondrites totaling 87 g have been found almost exactly in the locations predicted for a given mass. Because of very high quality of photographic and radiometric records, taken by the dedicated instruments of the Czech part of the European Fireball Network, ??ár nad Sázavou belongs to the most reliably, accurately, and thoroughly described meteorite falls in history.     

March 1, 2005 Daylight Fireball Over Galicia (NW of Spain) and Minho (N. Portugal)

A daylight bolide was observed over Galicia (NW Spain) and Minho (N. Portugal) on March 1, 2005 at 15 h10 min ± 3 min UTC. We interviewed 23 eyewitnesses of the event in order to obtain the azimuth, altitude, and slope of the fireball’s trajectory. Reports suggest an atmospheric ending height below 20 km, indicating that meteorite survival was likely. From the reconstructed trajectory and the fireball’s duration, we obtained the approximate heliocentric orbits for the meteoroid. Assuming an entry velocity higher than 20 km s⁻¹ which is consistent with its estimated duration, the meteoroid originated in the asteroid belt.     

A novel approach to fireball modeling: The observable and the calculated

Estimating the mass of a meteoroid passing through the Earth's atmosphere is essential to determining potential meteorite fall positions. High‐resolution fireball images from dedicated camera networks provide the position and timing for fireball bright flight trajectories. There are two established mass determination methods: the photometric and the dynamic. A new approach is proposed, based on the dynamic method. A dynamic optimization initially constrains unknown meteoroid characteristics which are then used in a parametric model for an extended Kalman filter. The extended Kalman filter estimates the position, velocity, and mass of the meteoroid body throughout its flight, and quantitatively models uncertainties. Uncertainties have not previously been modeled so explicitly and are essential for determining fall distributions for potential meteorites. This two‐step method aims to automate the process of mass determination for application to any trajectory data set and has been applied to observations of the Bunburra Rockhole fireball. The new method naturally handles noisy raw data. Initial and terminal bright flight mass results are consistent with other works based on the established photometric method and cosmic ray analysis. A full analysis of fragmentation and the variability in the heat‐transfer coefficient will be explored in future versions of the model.     

Analysis of instrumental observations of the Jesenice meteorite fall on April 9, 2009

Abstract– We report an analysis of instrumental observations of a very bright fireball which terminated with a meteorite fall near the town of Jesenice in Slovenia on April 9, 2009, at 0h59m46s UT. The fireball designated EN090409 was recorded photographically and photoelectrically by two southern stations of the Czech part of the European Fireball Network (EN). Simultaneously, a part of the luminous trajectory was also captured by two all‐sky CCD systems and one video camera of the Slovenian meteor network. In addition to these optical recordings, the sonic booms produced by the Jesenice fireball were detected at 16 seismic stations located within 150 km of the trajectory. From all these records, we reconstructed the fireball’s atmospheric trajectory, basic geophysical data, the possible impact area, and the original heliocentric orbit of the meteoroid. Using a detailed fireball light curve, we modeled the atmospheric fragmentation of the meteoroid. Both the atmospheric behavior and the heliocentric orbit proved to be quite normal in comparison with other observed meteorite falls. The Jesenice orbit is markedly different from the P?íbram and Neuschwanstein orbital meteorite pair, which fell on similar dates (April 7, 1959, and April 6, 2002, respectively). Three meteorites with a total weight of 3.6 kg (until April 2010) were found in a high mountain area near the town of Jesenice. They are classified as L6 ordinary chondrites ( Bischoff et al. 2010 ).     

Cosmogenic radionuclides and mineralogical properties of the Chelyabinsk (LL5) meteorite: What do we learn about the meteoroid?

On February 15, 2013, after the observation of a brilliant fireball and a spectacular airburst over the southern Ural region (Russia), thousands of stones fell and were rapidly recovered, bringing some extremely fresh material for scientific investigations. We undertook a multidisciplinary study of a dozen stones of the Chelyabinsk meteorite, including petrographic and microprobe investigations to unravel intrinsic characteristics of this meteorite. We also study the short and long‐lived cosmogenic radionuclides to characterize the initial meteoroid size and exposure age. Petrographic observations, as well as the mineral compositions obtained by electron microprobe analyses, allow us to confirm the classification of the Chelyabinsk meteorite as an LL5 chondrite. The fragments studied, a few of which are impact melt rocks, contain abundant shock melt veins and melt pockets. It is likely that the catastrophic explosion and fragmentation of the Chelyabinsk meteoroid into thousands of stones was in part determined by the initial state of the meteoroid. The radionuclide results obtained show a wide range of concentrations of ¹⁴C, ²²Na, ²⁶Al, ⁵⁴Mn, ⁵⁷Co, ⁵⁸Co, and ⁶⁰Co, which indicate that the pre‐atmospheric object had a radius >5 m, consistent with other size estimates based on the magnitude of the airburst caused by the atmospheric entry and breakup of the Chelyabinsk meteoroid. Considering the observed ²⁶Al activities of the investigated samples, Monte Carlo simulations, and taking into account the ²⁶Al half‐life (0.717 Myr), the cosmic‐ray exposure age of the Chelyabinsk meteorite is estimated to be 1.2 ± 0.2 Myr. In contrast to the other radionuclides, ¹⁴C showed a very large range only consistent with most samples having been exposed to anthropogenic sources of ¹⁴C, which we associate with radioactive contamination of the Chelyabinsk region by past nuclear accidents and waste disposal, which has also been confirmed by elevated levels of anthropogenic ¹³⁷Cs and primordial ⁴⁰K in some of the Chelyabinsk fragments.