Tsunamigenic zones in the Mediterranean Sea

A list of 300 tsunamis and similar phenomena known in the Mediterranean is given. Data reliability and wave intensity are estimated; mechanisms of tsunami generation are indicated and data from literature sources on the coordinates and magnitudes of tsunamigenic earthquakes are cited. Eighteen zones of excitation and manifestation of tsunamis are identified which can be integrated into four groups with respect to the recurrence period and maximum intensity of the tsunamis. The strongest tsunamis are excited in the Aegean Sea, and the Hellenic and Calabrian island arcs. The focal depth of the earthquake-generating tsunamis in the Mediterranean is, on average, less than that in the Pacific. Correspondingly, the magnitude of tsunamigenic earthquakes is lower. According to preliminary estimates, the Mediterranean tsunamis attenuate with distance more rapidly than do those in the Pacific Ocean.     

Probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard of dam sites in Jordan

A Probabilistic method is used to evaluate the seismic hazard of nineteen embankment dam sites in Jordan. A line source model developed by McGuire (1978) is used in this study. An updated earthquake catalogue covering the period from 1 A.D. to 1991 A.D. is used for this purpose. This catalogue includes all earthquakes that occurred in Jordan and adjacent areas, more specifically between latitudes 27.0°–35.5° N and longitudes 32.0°–39.0° E.Nine distinct seismic sources of potential seismic activities are identified. The seismic hazard parameters are determined using the method suggested by Kijko and Sellevoll (1989).The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) is selected as a measure of ground motion severity. Esteva (1974) attenuation relationship is used in evaluating PGA values at each dam site. Analysis is carried out for 50%, 90%, and 95% probability that is not being exceeded in a life time of 50, 100, and 200 years.Results of analysis indicate that PGA values are higher for dam sites closer to the Dead Sea Fault. This fault is believed to be responsible for most earthquake activities in Jordan and vicinity. The highest PGA value is found to be for Al-Karama dam site.     

Assessing the threat to Western Australia from tsunami generated by earthquakes along the Sunda Arc

A suite of tsunami spaced evenly along the subduction zone to the south of Indonesia (the Sunda Arc) were numerically modelled in order to make a preliminary estimate of the level of threat faced by Western Australia from tsunami generated along the Arc. Offshore wave heights from these tsunami were predicted to be significantly higher along the northern part of the west Australian coast than for the rest of the coast south of the town of Exmouth. In particular, the area around Exmouth may face a higher tsunami hazard than other areas of the West Australian coast nearby. Large earthquakes offshore of Java and Sumbawa are likely to be a greater hazard to WA than those offshore of Sumatra. Our numerical models indicate that a magnitude 9 or above earthquake along the eastern part of the Sunda Arc has the potential to significantly impact a large part of the West Australian coastline. The Australian government reserves the right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free license in and to any copyright.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard zonation of Syria

Earthquake hazard maps for Syria are presented in this paper. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) on bedrock, both with 90% probability of not being exceeded during a life time of 50, 100 and 200 years, respectively are developed. The probabilistic PGA and MMI values are evaluated assuming linear sources (faults) as potential sources of future earthquakes. A new attenuation relationship for this region is developed. Ten distinctive faults of potential earthquakes are identified in and around Syria. The pertinent parameters of each fault, such as theb-parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter formula, the annual rate ₄ and the upper bound magnitudem ₁ are determined from two sets of seismic data: the historical earthquakes and the instrumentally recorded earthquake data (AD 1900–1992). The seismic hazard maps developed are intended for preliminary analysis of new designs and seismic check of existing civil engineering structures.     

Performance-based assessment of earthquake-induced catastrophic landslide hazard in liquefiable soils

This paper outlines a methodology for evaluating the likelihood of catastrophic landslide occurrence on gentle slopes in liquefiable soils during earthquake. The approach is based on a modified Newmark sliding block model of assessing the earthquake-induced undrained landslide displacements for conditions of no shear stress reversals on the sliding surface. By employing the shear resistance-displacement relationship from undrained monotonic ring shear tests, the simulation model incorporates the sensitivity of computed displacements to variations in yield acceleration. The proposed approach involves an examination of undrained seismic slope performance under various horizontal seismic waveforms scaled to different specific values of the peak earthquake acceleration. An example problem illustrates how the proposed methodology may be used to demarcate, based on the magnitude of permanent seismic displacement, the levels of low, moderate and high risk of catastrophic landslide on a gentle slope in a saturated cohesionless soil susceptible to liquefaction during earthquake.     

基于地质灾害危险性的煤层气项目经济评价

煤层气开发项目可能遭受煤矿采空区地面塌陷的威胁,项目不同开发部署方案产生不同的地质灾害危险性评估结果,进而具有不同的经济效益。介绍了在地面塌陷区部署开发井的3种方案,对各方案的地质灾害危险性作了评估和综合分区,计算了各方案、各分区的管输量、现金流量和利润,其中危险性大区和中等区的结果不同,方案1抽采的煤层气多,开发设施受损也多,经济效益不好;方案2开发设施损失少,抽采的煤层气也少,经济效益较好;方案3开发设施受损数量减少,能抽采较多煤层气,经济效益好。采用投资回收期进行危险性分区的方案3优点多,已被开发单位接受。     

基于GIS的万州示范区地质灾害灾情评估系统设计

文章结合地质灾害灾情评估的特点和发展需要，提出运用地理信息系统(GIS)先进技术进行地质灾害灾情评估的框架，讨论以地理信息系统为开发平台的区域地质灾害灾情评估系统的设计。建立系统总体框架、工作流程，以及灾情评估模型的模块功能。该设计结合当前地质灾害管理、评估的需要，为区域地质灾害评估提供了一个应用例证。     

Seismic hazard of Bulgaria

A simplified seismotectonic model is proposed for Bulgaria by introducing generalized seismogenic areas containing systems of complex geometry faults. A tectonic scheme, which considers the main faults only, is then derived from this. The assessment of the regional seismic hazard is done using different approaches: the Gumbel, the Cornell, and the fault rupture model methods. A series of relations among seismological parameters are derived from the available data. The results obtained by the different approaches are similar: the most dangerous area is the Struma zone, located in southwestern Bulgaria.     

Sensitivity analysis of seismic hazard for Western Liguria (North Western Italy): A first attempt towards the understanding and quantification of hazard uncertainty

The use of logic trees in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses often involves a large number of branches that reflect the uncertainty in the selection of different models and in the selection of the parameter values of each model. The sensitivity analysis, as proposed by Rabinowitz and Steinberg [Rabinowitz, N., Steinberg, D.M., 1991. Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: a multi-parameter approach. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 81, 796–817], is an efficient tool that allows the construction of logic trees focusing attention on the parameters that have greater impact on the hazard.In this paper the sensitivity analysis is performed in order to identify the parameters that have the largest influence on the Western Liguria (North Western Italy) seismic hazard. The analysis is conducted for six strategic sites following the multi-parameter approach developed by Rabinowitz and Steinberg [Rabinowitz, N., Steinberg, D.M., 1991. Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: a multi-parameter approach. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 81, 796–817] and accounts for both mean hazard values and hazard values corresponding to different percentiles (e.g., 16%-ile and 84%-ile). The results are assessed in terms of the expected PGA with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock conditions and account for both the contribution from specific source zones using the Cornell approach [Cornell, C.A., 1968. Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 58, 1583–1606] and the spatially smoothed seismicity [Frankel, A., 1995. Mapping seismic hazard in the Central and Eastern United States. Seismol. Res. Lett. 66, 8–21]. The influence of different procedures for calculating seismic hazard, seismic catalogues (epicentral parameters), source zone models, frequency–magnitude parameters, maximum earthquake magnitude values and attenuation relationships is considered. As a result, the sensitivity analysis allows us to identify the parameters with higher influence on the hazard. Only these parameters should be subjected to careful discussion or further research in order to reduce the uncertainty in the hazard while those with little or no effect can be excluded from subsequent logic-tree-based seismic hazard analyses.     

Tsunami hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean: strong earthquakes and tsunamis in Cyprus and the Levantine Sea

A modern tsunami catalogue has been compiled for the region of Cyprus-Levantine Sea in which 24 certain or possible local tsunamis are listed from antiquity up to the present time, while six regional tsunamis, generated in the Hellenic arc, are documented which affected the region. Another set of 13 doubtful events not included in the catalogue are discussed. Tsunami intensities k and K were re-evaluated using the classic 6-grade and the new 12-grade intensity scales, respectively. The strongest tsunamis reported in the region of interest are those of 551 AD, 749, 1068, 1201, 1222, 1546 and 1759, all occurring along the Levantine coast from Gaza northward, with the exception of the 1222 wave which occurred in the Cyprean arc. The causative earthquakes, however, occur on land and are associated with the left-lateral strike-slip Levantine rift and, as such, remain unexplained. In this paper we speculate on the mechanism of these events. A second tsunami zone follows the Cyprean arc, where the situation of subaqueous seismogenic sources favours the generation of tsunamis by co-seismic fault displacements. Submarine or coastal earth slumping, however, may be an additional tsunamigenic component. Based on historical data, the average tsunami recurrence in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea region is roughly estimated to be around 30 years, 120 years and 375 years for moderate (k/K ≥ 2/3), strong (k/K ≥ 3/5) and very strong (k/K ≥ 5/8) events, respectively. The rate of tsunami occurrence equals 0.033, 8.3 × 10⁻³ and 2.7 × 10⁻³ events/year for intensity k/K ≥ 2/3, 3/5 and 5/8, respectively. For a Poissonian (random) process the probabilities of observing at least one moderate, strong or very strong tsunami are 0.28, 0.01 and 3 × 10⁻³ within 1 year, 0.81, 0.34 and 0.13 within 50 years and 0.96, 0.56 and 0.24 within 100 years, respectively. The tsunami potential in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea area is low relative to other Mediterranean tsunamigenic regions. However, the destructiveness of some historical events indicates the need to evaluate tsunami hazard by all available means. In addition, remote tsunamigenic sources, such as those of 1303 and 1481 in the eastern Hellenic arc, are able to threaten the coasts of the Cyprus-Levantine region and, therefore, such regional tsunamis should be taken into account in the evaluation of the tsunami risk of the region.     

Assessment of seismic hazard near faults of uncertain type: Inter-plate versus intra-plate

Maximum magnitude is an important input parameter in seismic hazard analysis, but may be difficult to determine directly on the basis of available seismological data. Moreover, there is evidence that the scaling law relating maximum magnitude to fault length for inter-plate faults may differ from the law for intra-plate faults. Thus uncertainty as to the fault type can complicate the problem of determining maximum magnitude. We present a method for examining the implications for seismic hazard analysis of uncertainty regarding fault type. We apply the method to a simple constructed example and find that the problem of assessing fault type can be far more critical to the hazard assessment than the exact statement of fault geometry, especially for sites that are distant from the fault.The opinions and conditions presented in this paper do not neccessarily reflect the official position of the Licensing Division of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission.     

基于地面运动强度及标准贯入试验的上海地区砂土地震液化评价

上海市地处长江三角洲前缘,黄浦江和苏州河交汇区域,特殊的地理环境与沉积环境导致浅部砂层广泛发育。随着城市建设的不断推进,上海城市区域范围的砂土地震液化风险评价成为亟待研究的课题。文章基于上海市工程钻孔数据,结合地震地面运动加速度分布与标准贯入试验,建立区域性地震液化危险性评价模型,对上海市进行了地震液化危险性评价。研究认为当发生50年超越概率10%的地震条件下,上海市陆域面积的66.0%将不会产生地震砂土液化灾害,21.8%的陆域面积仅发生轻微液化,只有崇明、横沙、长兴三岛,黄浦江及苏州河两岸地震液化等级达到中等甚至严重,占全市陆域面积12.3%;50年超越概率2%的地震条件下,随着峰值地面运动加速度整体升高,全市范围内轻微—严重液化区域明显增多,可能发生地震液化的总面积达到全市陆域面积46.25%。上海市存在砂土地震液化的危险性,但是发生概率较低。研究认为,目前的抗震设计规范中上海市的设防烈度偏高,可能导致不必要的建设成本。同时研究中的不同超越概率下的地震液化危险性评价结果为上海市工程建设相关标准的合理化改进的提供了建议和参考。     

Assessment of the tsunami hazard on the Russian coast based on a new catalogue of tsunamis in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov

We present the results of work on the compilation of a fuller and more comprehensive historical catalogue of earthquakes and tsunamis in the basin of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, an area of primary importance for the Russian Federation. In the 20th century, there were no significant tsunamis in the Black Sea; therefore, its coast was not considered tsunami-prone. A systematic search for new data sources, a revision of earlier ones, and the use of new approaches to the identification of tsunamigenic events resulted in a more than doubling of the number of known tsunamigenic events in this basin, bringing it up to 50. The total length of the new tsunami catalogue reached 3000 years, which makes it the second longest after the Mediterranean tsunami catalogue (about 4000 years). Taking into account the seismotectonic features of the Black Sea region, we processed data on historical tsunamis and analyzed the geographical and temporal distributions of their sources. For all tsunamigenic events we performed a parameterization of available information about their sources and coastal manifestations, evaluated the tsunami intensity based on the Soloviev-Imamura scale, and proposed a classification of tsunami and tsunami-like water wave disturbances based on their genesis. Tsunami run-up heights, inland penetration, and damage were estimated with regard for the newly found data. Among the identified historical events, there are devastating tsunamis with run-ups of 4-5 m, sometimes up to 6-8 m, which resulted in disastrous consequences for several ancient cities (Dioscuria, Sebastopolis, Bizone, and Panticapaeum) and many coastal settlements. Expert assessments of the most tsunami-prone areas of the coasts are given.     

A seismic source zone model for the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory

We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.

We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.

The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.

ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with M_w > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with M_w up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.

Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates.     

滑坡灾害风险评价的关键理论与技术方法

滑坡灾害风险评估主要包括滑坡敏感性分析、危险性评价和风险评估3个不同层次的内容。但是,滑坡地质灾害本身的复杂性和滑坡强度的确定、滑坡发生的时空概率估算、承灾体的易损性时空概率分析等难点问题的存在,无疑阻碍了滑坡风险定量评估的推广和应用。在系统分析国内外滑坡灾害风险评估研究成果的基础上,对滑坡灾害风险评价的技术体系进行了总结,提出了不同层次滑坡灾害的研究内容和相应的评价方法;分析了实现滑坡风险有效评价涉及到的难点问题,并结合降雨和地震诱发的滑坡灾害危险性评价国内外的实践,提出了中国未来滑坡灾害风险评价研究的主要内容和技术方法。     

Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.     

Source parameters controlling the generation and propagation of potential local tsunamis along the Cascadia margin

The largest uncertainty in assessing hazards from local tsunamis along the Cascadia margin is estimating the possible earthquake source parameters. We investigate which source parameters exert the largest influence on tsunami generation and determine how each parameter affects the amplitude of the local tsunami. The following source parameters were analyzed: (1) type of faulting characteristic of the Cascadia subduction zone, (2) amount of slip during rupture, (3) slip orientation, (4) duration of rupture, (5) physical properties of the accretionary wedge, and (6) influence of secondary faulting. The effect of each of these source parameters on the quasi-static displacement of the ocean floor is determined by using elastic three-dimensional, finite-element models. The propagation of the resulting tsunami is modeled both near the coastline using the two-dimensional (x-t) Peregrine equations that includes the effects of dispersion and near the source using the three-dimensional (x-y-t) linear long-wave equations. The source parameters that have the largest influence on local tsunami excitation are the shallowness of rupture and the amount of slip. In addition, the orientation of slip has a large effect on the directivity of the tsunami, especially for shallow dipping faults, which consequently has a direct influence on the length of coastline inundated by the tsunami. Duration of rupture, physical properties of the accretionary wedge, and secondary faulting all affect the excitation of tsunamis but to a lesser extent than the shallowness of rupture and the amount and orientation of slip. Assessment of the severity of the local tsunami hazard should take into account that relatively large tsunamis can be generated from anomalous tsunami earthquakes that rupture within the accretionary wedge in comparison to interplate thrust earthquakes of similar magnitude.     

Seismic hazard assessment under complex source size distribution of mining-induced seismicity

It is well-documented that a variety of factors controlling the rockmass fracturing process in mines often results in a complexity of mining event size distribution. In such cases, the estimation of the probability functions of source size parameterizations, with the use of presently known distribution models, brings about an unacceptable and systematic over- or underestimation of the seismic hazard parameters. It is, therefore, recommended that the non-parametric, kernel estimators of the event size distribution functions, be applied to stationary hazard studies in mining seismicity.These data-driven estimators, adapted to seismic source size characterization, accurately fit all kinds of data underlying distributions, regardless of their complexity. Recently, the non-parametric approach to size characterization was supported by a special method of uncertainty analysis based on resampling techniques. At present, it is a fully developed method, which provides point and interval estimates of size distribution functions and related hazard parameters. Two examples of its use in studying mining seismic data are presented and discussed in this paper. The analyzed data sets were recorded in two different copper mines in Poland. The smoothed bootstrap test for multimodality, which is a specialized tool for investigating the shapes of probability densities, provided highly significant proof that in both cases the probability densities of source size parameterization were complex thus implied the superiority of the non-parametric estimation to the classic, model-based approach in the studied cases. The data were then used to construct non-parametric, kernel estimates of the source size cumulative distribution function (CDF), the exceedance probability and the mean return period. Furthermore, confidence intervals for these quantities were also estimated. The intervals for CDF were narrow, showing that the procedures of non-parametric estimation and resampling based uncertainty analysis were precise. Due to the fact that the mean return period is very sensitive to values of the CDF, in particular for larger events sizes, the uncertainty of the return period estimates was not insignificant but remained manageable. The point and interval estimates of source size CDF and hazard parameters so obtained were compared with the respective point estimates achieved from the inappropriate in the case of complex magnitude distributions, model-based approach.     

Seismic hazard maps for Jordan and vicinity

Probabilistic methods are used to quantify the seismic hazard in Jordan and neighbouring regions. The hazard model incorporates the uncertainties associated with the seismicity parameters and the attenuation equation. Seven seismic sources are identified in the region and the seismicity parameters of these sources are estimated by making use of all the available information. Seismic hazard computations and the selection of peak ground acceleration and modified Mercalli intensity values at the nodes of a 25 × 25 km mesh covering the region under study are carried out by two different computer programs.The results of the study are presented through a set of seismic hazard maps displaying iso-acceleration and iso-intensity contours corresponding to specified return periods. The first set of maps is derived based on the seismicity data assessed in this study and display our best estimate of the seismic hazard for Jordan and the neighbouring areas. The second set of maps which shows the alternative estimate of seismic hazard is based solely on the seismicity parameters reported by other researchers. The third set of maps, called the Bayesian estimate of seismic hazard, reflects the influence of expert opinion involving more conservative assumptions regarding the Red Sea and Araba faults.