暴雨型泥石流预警模型初步研究

2010年8月13日四川都江堰市龙池地区暴发了特大规模的群发性暴雨型泥石流过程,给龙池地区的震后恢复重建带来了巨大的灾难,因此,研究该区泥石流发生机理和预警十分必要。本文在总结前人关于泥石流暴发与降雨条件研究成果基础上,发现泥石流物源含水量及地表径流流深等是导致流域内松散物源启动的主要原因。根据其前期降雨量和有效降雨强度等特征,建立了泥石流流域物源土体颗粒个别启动、局部启动和大量启动的判别式,建立了适合该区域暴雨泥石流预警模型,将可能诱发泥石流暴发的不同降雨条件划分为蓝、黄和红色3个危险等级,为该区泥石流监测预警提供了科学依据。     

暴雨型泥石流预警模型初步研究

2010年8月13日四川都江堰市龙池地区暴发了特大规模的群发性暴雨型泥石流过程,给龙池地区的震后恢复重建带来了巨大的灾难,因此,研究该区泥石流发生机理和预警十分必要。本文在总结前人关于泥石流暴发与降雨条件研究成果基础上,发现泥石流物源含水量及地表径流流深等是导致流域内松散物源启动的主要原因。根据其前期降雨量和有效降雨强度等特征,建立了泥石流流域物源土体颗粒个别启动、局部启动和大量启动的判别式,建立了适合该区域暴雨泥石流预警模型,将可能诱发泥石流暴发的不同降雨条件划分为蓝、黄和红色3个危险等级,为该区泥石流监测预警提供了科学依据。     

兰州市寺儿沟泥石流物源特征及其危险性分析

寺儿沟流域位于甘肃省兰州市西固区, 历史上曾发生过大规模泥石流, 造成重大人员伤亡和财产损失。文章基于野外调查和遥感解译, 结合已有文献成果和室内测试, 研究寺儿沟泥石流物源特征及影响因素, 采用FLO-2D软件模拟分析泥石流的危险性。研究结果表明: 寺儿沟以黏性泥石流为主, 表现为低频活动, 目前处于衰退期; 寺儿沟流域内物源丰富, 可分为坡面型物源、崩滑型物源、沟道型物源和人为型物源共4种, 其中崩滑型、沟道型物源控制了泥石流的暴发规模; 而一次性冲出量的大小主要取决于泥石流起动时崩滑体的发育程度, 崩滑体越发育, 一次性冲出量越大, 泥石流规模越大; 在临界降雨条件下, 寺儿沟将会暴发泥石流, 中—高危险区集中于流通区, 严重威胁冲沟内构筑物如兰西高铁、环城高速等安全运营。当遭遇极端强降雨时, 寺儿沟将暴发更大规模泥石流。因此, 有必要进一步研究极端天气条件下泥石流的危险性, 为区内泥石流的防灾减灾提供地质依据。      

"5·12" 地震后汶川县泥石流特征与演化分析

2008年“5·12”汶川地震极大地改变了震区泥石流的特征,不仅增强了泥石流的活动性,同时也使得震区在相当长的时间内都要面临泥石流的威胁。本文基于前人大量的研究成果,并利用遥感解译结合现场调查等手段,分析了汶川县泥石流沟道纵坡降、沟壑密度、两岸坡度等基本发育特征;进而分析了地震前后汶川县降雨分布及泥石流相关降雨参数变化特征。结果显示,流域内泥石流沟的沟壑密度在0.2~4之间,属于微度土壤侵蚀区域,泥石流的沟床纵坡降偏大,有利于泥石流的发生;泥石流流域内斜坡坡度多为30°~40°,有利于灾害的发生;震后汶川县年均降雨量增加了5.17%,降雨多集中在7~9月份,降雨量由南及北逐渐降低;震后泥石流的降雨阈值在2008~2013年呈现缓慢回升的趋势,但2019年又有所下降,预计恢复到震前水平尚需要一定时间;同时震后汶川县泥石流物源丰富,震后物源量呈现“震荡式衰减”的演化趋势,但体量仍然很大,对泥石流仍需坚持监测预警工作。     

四川北川地震灾区杨家沟泥石流物源分析与防治方案确定

"5.12"汶川地震后,震灾区滑坡、崩塌等产生的大量松散固体物质为该区泥石流长期活动提供了丰富的物源基础,部分流域地势陡峻,汇水条件较好,部分干流沟道堵塞严重,从而导致震后泥石流活动强度和频率急剧增大,使得泥石流成为对地震区影响最为严重的灾害。通过对杨家沟泥石流形成因素及物源条件分析计算,预测了发展趋势,结合物源的特点,提出了防治方案。     

川南红层地区泥石流形成过程与动力特征研究——以四川省屏山县牛儿包泥石流为例

红层地区泥石流因受典型的地层岩性及气候条件等影响,发育分布数量较少,探索这类特殊孕灾背景条件下的泥石流成因及特征具有一定的减灾意义。文章以四川省屏山县牛儿包沟泥石流为例,通过对该泥石流沟流域的地形条件、水源条件及物源条件特征分析,探索了红层地区泥石流的成因和特征,综合分析了泥石流的动力特征。研究表明:(1)流域地形高差大,沟道狭窄,沟谷较陡,沟道纵比降较大,为泥石流的形成提供了有利地形条件;(2)流域汇水面积较大,降雨集中短时间内为泥石流的形成提供了充足的水源条件;(3)流域内物源集中,短时间内能为泥石流发生提供充足的物源条件。最后通过泥痕法计算了上一次泥石流发生时的流量,并对计算了不同暴雨频率条件下泥石流的流量,提出了针对性的泥石流防治建议,为牛儿包沟泥石流灾害防治提供了可靠的数据。     

平武县石坎河小流域震后泥石流活动特征及工程防治建议

石坎河小流域位于汶川地震发震断裂-映秀—北川断裂带上,强震后流域内滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害显著增强。本文收集整理了震前、震后流域内地质灾害的数据资料,详细分析研究了流域内地质环境条件、震后9a内泥石流活动特征及其治理工程情况,在此基础上讨论其工程防治的最佳时机。通过研究得出:(1)石坎河流域支沟纵坡降大,主沟纵坡降相对较小,暴发多次泥石流灾害后支沟沟道多下切,主河道淤积严重,灾害叠加放大效应明显;(2)石坎河流域暴发多次泥石流灾害后河谷变宽,地形改变较大、物源减少明显,流域内暴发泥石流的规模逐渐减小,未来暴发的泥石流规模一般不会再超过2013年7月9日的泥石流规模;(3)石坎河流域泥石流工程防治最佳时机应为2013年7月9日泥石流灾害后。     

“8·3”鲁甸地震背景下甘沟流域泥石流危险性评价

2014年8月云南省鲁甸县发生6.5级地震,位于震源中心地带的甘沟流域受地震影响,诱发大量次生地质灾害,流域内松散堆积物质增加,泥石流灾害的潜在危险增大,对沟口集镇造成威胁。本文基于对甘沟流域野外实地调查,综合考虑降雨对震后泥石流的影响,选取泥石流规模、流域面积、日最大降雨量、主沟长度、相对高差、流域切割密度、不稳定沟床比等7个评价因子,通过调整分辨系数为0.227 2的灰色关联法确定其客观权重,并在此基础上采用多因素综合评价方法计算泥石流危险度,对其进行危险性定量评价。结果表明,震后甘沟流域泥石流危险性属中度危险,诱发中等规模泥石流的可能性较大。     

安徽省黟县"6.21"型泥石流特征及形成机制

在野外调查的基础上,通过对黟县北部地区(柯村、美溪、宏潭)泥石流灾害产生的特征、分布、危害及形成规律的研究分析,论述了黟县"6 21"型泥石流产生的地质环境条件及主要控制性因素。认为:区内山高坡陡,地势陡竣、河谷狭窄呈"V"字型,人类工程活动强烈,而且降雨集中、强度大,易产生控制面积小、历时短、强度大而且能激发泥石流产生的暴雨量("6 12"型降雨),是安徽省比较典型的泥石流灾害易发区。预测分析表明,黟县北部地区不仅具备泥石流产生的地形、构造及岩性条件,而且16条支沟内松散固体物质储量丰富(沟谷的松散固体物质储量一般均大于1 0×104m3 km2),泥石流的产生具备丰富的固体物源基础。同时,区内也是安徽省强降雨中心之一,暴雨或大暴雨均发生于每年的6月中旬,类似于2002年"6 21"型的大暴雨。产生周期约为10～15年一遇。因此,预测黟县北部地区16条支谷泥石流发生的频率为10～15年一遇。     

基于机载LiDAR技术的泥石流物源侵蚀量定量评价研究

泥石流物源是形成泥石流的三大基本条件之一，物源侵蚀堆积变化量则是衡量泥石流规模和频率的重要指标，然而目前采用常规技术手段仍难以实现对物源侵蚀堆积变化的定量研究。针对这一问题，本文以西昌市邛海水厂后山冲沟泥石流为例，采用机载LiDAR技术建立了该流域雨季前后的高精度数字高程模型(DEM)，并基于此开展了泥石流物源侵蚀量定量评价研究。结果表明：邛海水厂后山冲沟流域总体过火面积达65%，流域内主要发育坡面堆积物源、崩滑堆积物源以及沟道堆积物源；两期次高精度DEM数据差分叠加可实现泥石流物源侵蚀量的估算，该沟雨季前后泥石流物源侵蚀减少量为12 209 m³，物源侵蚀变化呈分布区域广、数量多、散状发育的特点；泥石流物源的启动以坡面堆积物源侵蚀为主，侵蚀厚度多在0.5 m以内；邛海水厂后山冲沟泥石流在今后一段时间内将以高频泥石流为主。     

甘肃舟曲三眼峪沟泥石流的形成条件与发展趋势

2010年8月8日,舟曲县城北侧三眼峪沟和罗家峪沟暴发的特大山洪泥石流,给舟曲县城人民生命财产造成了巨大损失。本文基于现场调查,分析了三眼峪沟泥石流的形成条件和未来泥石流的发展趋势。调查发现,独特的地形条件、极其丰富的固体物质储备和极端降雨条件,导致了"8.8"特大泥石流灾害。崩塌堆积体是三眼峪沟泥石流固体物质的最主要来源,受"8.8"泥石流的影响,沟内堆积物的稳定性进一步降低,一旦有强降雨发生,该沟很可能再次发生泥石流,并且泥石流的规模和活动性可能进一步增强。     

Comparison of debris-flow volume and activity under different formation conditions

Debris flows frequently occurred in Wenchuan earthquake region from 2008 to 2010, resulting in great damage to localities and being a prolonged threat to reconstruction. Forty three events' data including debris-flow volume, sediment volume and watershed area are analyzed and compared with other debris-flow events in Eastern Italian Alps, burned areas in USA and in Taiwan. The analysis reveals that there is a strong empirical relationship between debris-flow volume and loose materials volume in the earthquake region. In addition, the relationship between debris-flow volume and watershed area in the earthquake region has a wider variation range than that in other three regions while the debris volume also appears to be larger than that in the other three regions, which implies the volume of debris flows with strong influence of earthquakes is larger than that with no such influence and it is hard to predict the post-quake volume only by the watershed area. The comparison of the maximal debris-flow erosion modulus in the Wenchuan region and in Taiwan indicates that debris flows will be very active in a short time after strong earthquake.     

帕隆藏布江特大型泥石流的成灾模式及防治对策——以扎木镇-古乡段为例

文章通过对雅鲁藏布江的Ⅰ级支流—帕隆藏布江扎木镇-古乡段辫状水系地貌的研究,认为其与两岸支谷发育的泥石流群有关。通过对位于该河段下游的古乡沟和上游的地质弄巴泥石流特征的重点剖析,发现了特大型泥石流发育的2个重要特征,即支谷上游冰蚀围谷中赋存大量巨厚古今冰碛物和支谷中游峡谷段大型崩塌滑坡坝溃决。提出了特大型泥石流的成灾模式,并以该成灾模式解释了2000年易贡巨型滑坡堵江事件。最后,提出了基于上述成灾模式的帕隆藏布江流域特大型泥石流灾害防治的原则和方法。     

舟曲三眼峪沟特大泥石流形成及径流特征分析

本文基于对舟曲三眼峪沟“8·8”特大泥石流灾害现场调查、勘测,对激发泥石流的暴雨范围及特征、流域内松散物质补给特征、泥石流发生过程及流速变化、堆积区冲淤变化等特征的分析认为。激发舟曲特大泥石流的暴雨区域集中于擂鼓山东坡—陡石山—东山一带,局地性强,面积小于50km2。暴雨区距离舟曲县城4.0～4.5km,具有突发性、骤然增强、破坏力大的特征。     

A prototype experiment of debris flow control with energy dissipation structures

Large-volume debris flow events are defined when the volume of solid materials exceeds 1 million m³. Traditional engineering measures, such as check dams, diversion channels, and flumes, are effective for normal debris flow control but are not sufficient to control large-volume debris flows. Experiments were conducted with an artificial step-pool system on the new Wenjiagou Gully to mitigate large-volume debris flows. The old Wenjiagou Gully was buried by 81.6 million m³ of loose solid material created by a landslide that was triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008. The new gully was formed during the scouring process caused by debris flows in 2008. Large-volume debris flows were initiated by rainstorm flood with high kinetic energy. The artificial step-pool system was constructed with huge and big boulders on the new Wenjiagou Gully in 2009. The step-pool system dissipated flow energy in steps and hydraulic jumps. Analysis proved that the step-pool system dissipated two-third of the kinetic energy of flow; thus, the critical discharge for triggering debris flow increased threefold. Due to the step-pool system maximized the flow resistance and protected the bed sediment and banks from erosion, the rainstorm floods in 2009 did not trigger debris flows. In 2010, the step-pool system was replaced with 20 check dams. Huge boulders were broken into small pieces of diameter less than 0.5 m and were used as building materials for the 20 dams. Without the protection of the step-pool system, a rainstorm flood scoured the base of the dams and caused failures for all of the 20 check dams in August 2010. The flow incised the gully bed by 50 m. The loose bank materials slid into the flow mixed with water and formed a large-volume debris flow with a volume of 4.5 million m³. Many houses were buried by the debris flow, and 12 people were killed. Comparison of the two strategies proved that energy dissipation structures are necessary for controlling large-volume debris flows. Check dams, if they are stable, may reduce the potential of bank failures and control debris flows. The step-pool system dissipates flow energy and control gully bed incision and bank failure. A combination of check dams and step-pool systems may be the most effective for mitigating debris flows.     

Transformation of dilative and contractive landslide debris into debris flows—An example from marin County, California

The severe rainstorm of January 3, 4 and 5, 1982, in the San Francisco Bay area, California, produced numerous landslides, many of which transformed into damaging debris flows. The process of transformation was studied in detail at one site where only part of a landslide mobilized into several episodes of debris flow. The focus of our investigation was to learn whether the landslide debris dilated or contracted during the transformation from slide to flow.

The landslide debris consisted of sandy colluvium that was separable into three soil horizons that occupied the axis of a small topographic swale. Failure involved the entire thickness of colluvium; however, over parts of the landslide, the soil A-horizon failed separately from the remainder of the colluvium.

Undisturbed samples were taken for density measurements from outside the landslide, from the failure zone and overlying material from the part of the landslide that did not mobilize into debris flows, and from the debris-flow deposits. The soil A-horizon was contractive and mobilized to flows in a process analogous to liquefaction of loose, granular soils during earthquakes. The soil B- and C-horizons were dilative and underwent 2 to 5% volumetric expansion during landslide movement that permitted mobilization of debris-flow episodes.

Several criteria can be used in the field to differentiate between contractive and dilative behavior including lag time between landsliding and mobilization of flow, episodic mobilization of flows, and partial or complete transformation of the landslide.     

2005年西藏波密古乡沟泥石流暴发成因分析

青藏高原是我国滑坡泥石流等自然灾害最严重的地区之一,位于西藏波密县的古乡泥石流沟是川藏公路上重大灾害之一.在经过1966-2004年的弱活跃期后,古乡沟于2005年7月30日上午10:00左右、7月30日晚和8月6日上午8:00分别暴发了不同规模的大型冰川泥石流.淤积在公路面上的泥石流堆积物厚度达2 m左右,宽20多米,土方量约2×10⁴m³,多次中断交通运营,对川藏公路的畅通和当地人民的财产造成巨大的损失.通过实地调查研究和分析,发现这3次泥石流暴发的原因与1953年相似,均是由集中降雨和持续高温共同作用的天气所致.     

震后沟道泥石流启动条件——松散堆积体雨中失稳的水力学机制分析

5.12地震导致大规模的松散崩滑物质堆积于沟道,极大的增加了震后降雨型沟道泥石流爆发的概率。然而,灾后特殊的物源条件和成灾环境改变了传统沟道泥石流的形成机制,给震后沟道泥石流的防治工作带来了巨大的困难。为此,以水文学为基础,在构建松散堆积体潜水位变化水文学模型的前提下,借助水力学理论,分析了沟道堆积体内水力随潜水位变化的规律和特征,研究作用在单元条块堆积体上静水压力和动水压力的计算方法。在合理分段沟道松散堆积体的前提下,基于无限边坡理论完成了对各段堆积体下滑力、基底抗滑力及剩余下滑力的表达构建。结合算例解析了震后降雨条件下堆积体失稳的力学机制。分析表明,震后沟道松散堆积体失稳启动并泥石流化是流域降雨作用下堆积体内潜水位不断抬升、水力环境不断劣化的结果。流域大、沟道窄、堆积深、导水系数小、沟床缓的堆积体因较高的潜水位更易在降雨中失稳,且失稳模式因条块间剩余下滑力差异而分为整体推移启动及解体牵引启动两类。     

Numerical simulations of flow motion and deposition characteristics of granular debris flows

Flow motion and deposition characteristics of debris flows are of concern regarding land use planning and management. A simple model for the prediction of mentioned characteristics has been developed, incorporating a friction–collision rheological model. It demonstrated to be able to satisfactorily simulate the two-dimensional behavior of laboratory results and the one-dimensional behavior of two real debris-flow events. The numerical results show that the topography of the channel bed, the yield stress level of the debris flows, and the inflow pattern have significant influence on the simulated flow motion and deposition characteristics of debris flows. In addition, the predicted run-out distance has been compared with analytical solutions and field observations. The model could be employed for the preliminary evaluation of one-dimensional run-out distance of granular debris flows provided that the volume of the debris involved in the initial mobilization is assumed.     

An integrated model to assess critical rainfall thresholds for run-out distances of debris flows

A dramatic increase in debris flows occurred in the years after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in SW China due to the deposition of loose co-seismic landslide material. This paper proposes a preliminary integrated model, which describes the relationship between rain input and debris flow run-out in order to establish critical rain thresholds for mobilizing enough debris volume to reach the basin outlet. The model integrates in a simple way rainfall, surface runoff, and concentrated erosion of the loose material deposited in channels, propagation, and deposition of flow material. The model could be calibrated on total volumes of debris flow materials deposited at the outlet of the Shuida catchment during two successive rain events which occurred in August 2011. The calibrated model was used to construct critical rainfall intensity-duration graphs defining thresholds for a run-out distance until the outlet of the catchment. Model simulations show that threshold values increase after successive rain events due to a decrease in erodible material. The constructed rainfall intensity-duration threshold graphs for the Shuida catchment based on the current situation appeared to have basically the same exponential value as a threshold graph for debris flow occurrences, constructed for the Wenjia catchment on the basis of 5 observed triggering rain events. This may indicate that the triggering mechanism by intensive run-off erosion in channels in this catchment is the same. The model did not account for a supply of extra loose material by landslips transforming into debris flow or reaching the channels for transportation by run-off. In August 2012, two severe rain events were measured in the Shuida catchment, which did not produce debris flows. This could be confirmed by the threshold diagram constructed by the model.