Inner product matrices, kriging, and nonparametric estimation of variogram

Two important problems in the practical implementation of kriging are: (1) estimation of the variogram, and (2) estimation of the prediction error. In this paper, a nonparametric estimator of the variogram to circumvent the problem of the precise choice of a variogram model is proposed. Using orthogonal decomposition of the kriging predictor and the prediction error, a method for selecting, what may be considered, a statistical neighborhood is suggested. The prediction error estimates based on this scheme, in fact, reflects the true prediction error, thus leading to proper coverage for the corresponding prediction interval. By simulations and a reanalysis of published data, it is shown that the proposals made in this paper are useful in practice.     

On the stability of the geostatistical method

A thorough geostatistical analysis of spatial data, observed at given spatial locations, includes exploratory data analysis, spatial-model building, diagnosing the model fit, and inference on unknown model parameters or unobserved values (at known locations). Using results from mathematical analysis, exact and asymptotic distribution theory, and simulation studies, we argue that, when used sensibly, the geostatistical method is reassuringly stable.     

Distance as a predominant factor in the utilisation of health services in the Kumasi metropolis, Ghana

The research primarily aims at testing a model, adapted from existing models, on the influence of distance on the use of health services in the Kumasi metropolis, an expanding urban centre in Ghana. Primary data, collected between August 2000 and February 2001, were used for the study. The data were analysed using a multiple regression model and compound bar graphs. A sample of 250, drawn through systematic random and stratified procedures, was used for the cross-sectional retrospective survey. Data were collected through formal interview schedules, after preliminary observational survey. The survey has established three principal findings. First, distance shows a strong inverse relationship with the utilisation of health services in the metropolis. Second, travel time and transport cost, variables that are related to distance, exhibit a weak negative and positive associations respectively with the use of health services. Third, the vulnerable groups of women, the aged, the sickly, the illiterate and the poor are not affected by distance decay in the utilisation of health services. Finally, independent variables that are statistically significant in influencing utilisation, alongside distance, are education, service cost, quality of service and health status. Recommendations for locational modelling of health services at the deprived periphery, an introduction of an insurance scheme to facilitate health care use, and recommendations for further research have been made.     

尾矿库下游安全距离预测的探讨

鉴于目前尾矿库下游安全距离没有试验数学模型,导致尾矿库下游的安全距离难以确定。借用泥石流预测数学模型,以探索较为合理的安全距离计算,为尾矿库库址选择、安全评价及主管部门监管提供一种具有一定科学依据的预测计算方法。     

青海高原2008-2016年云地闪特征分析

利用2008-2016年青海省云地闪监测网资料,分析了云地闪特征。结果表明：2008-2016年青海高原云地闪次数呈现逐年增加的趋势;各年正云地闪比例在10.1%~19.8%之间,平均正云地闪比例为15.0%,且春季和秋季明显高于夏季;总云地闪平均电流强度为30.3 kA,正云地闪平均电流强度为50.1 kA,负云地闪平均电流强度为27.2 kA;负云地闪月平均峰值电流呈现双峰双谷的分布特征,正云地闪月平均峰值电流呈现单峰单谷的特征;正负云地闪电流强度频次分布均呈现正态分布的特征;云地闪电流强度幅值频次累积概率分布服从IEEE Std 1243-1997推荐的雷电流累积概率分布模型;云地闪平均陡度为7.3 kA·us^-1,正云地闪平均陡度为7.8 kA·us^-1,负云地闪平均陡度为7.2 kA·us^-1;云地闪在夏季（6-8月）发生较为频繁,占总闪电的81.0%,其次是秋季（9-11月）,占总闪电的13.5%,夏季和秋季云地闪电占全年闪电的94.5%;云地闪的日变化呈现单峰单谷的特征;总云地闪年均最大密度达10.4次·km^-2·a^-1,正云地闪年均最大密度达2.1次·km^-2·a^-1,负云地闪年均最大密度达10.3次·km^-2·a^-1,总云地闪和负云地闪的密度高值区在西宁、大通和湟中一带,正云地闪的密度高值区在玛沁和同德一带。     

块系岩体间黏弹性性质对摆型波传播的影响

基于深部非连续自应力等级块系岩体构造理论,研究冲击载荷在块系岩体中以摆型波形式传播时岩块间黏弹性性质对摆型波传播的影响。当岩块间具有五种不同黏弹性性质时,通过对块系岩体的始端和末端区域中间岩块加速度响应计算及各岩块加速度正负摆幅幅值分析可知：岩块间黏性变化时,对岩块加速度衰减周期没有影响,但黏性增大时各岩块正负摆幅下降幅度比黏性周期增大时大;岩块间弹性变化时岩块加速度衰减周期均发生变化,但弹性减小时正负摆幅值向平衡位置平移,弹性周期减小时块系岩体的前半部分岩块正负摆幅曲线均出现波动且负摆波动较大,岩块间弹性梯级增大时,岩块加速度迅速衰减,同时各岩块加速度的正负摆幅曲线在初始端区域出现波动。     

利用地震数据预测煤系地层裂隙

煤系地层内的裂隙是煤层气积聚的主要场所，同时也是地下水富集、运移的重要条件。煤炭生产过程中防止瓦斯爆炸和突水淹井需要完成的一项重要任务是煤系地层裂隙带的预测和圈定，但采用传统的纵波地震勘探方法只能识别较大的断层，却难以提取相对微观的裂隙信息，其中的一个重要原因在于单靠纵波区分裂隙层反射和岩性反射存在困难。基于三维三分量（3D3C）反射地震数据预测裂隙带的核心是高裂隙密度带会引起反射转换PS波的振幅异常。初步研究表明，PS波振幅异常有望成为强裂隙探测的有力判据。     

距离加权平均法数学模型在海河流域降雨等值线分析中的应用

将距离加权平均的数学模型算法引进到海河流域降雨等值线的分析计算中，并结合雨量站分布等具体问题对该模型做了一些改进，较好地解决了海河流域计算机自动分析、绘制降雨等值线的问题。     

安徽马头斑岩型钼铜矿床元素富集贫化规律及其找矿意义

本文在安徽马头斑岩型钼铜矿床中元素含量随主成矿元素Mo含量变化的基础上,对元素的富集贫化特征进行了系统研究,筛选出了富集和贫化元素,并对具有代表性的富集和贫化元素的矿化指示意义进行了探讨。结果发现,矿床中元素的富集和贫化在地表岩石中均有明显反映,综合利用富集元素的正异常和贫化元素的负异常能更有效指示出矿化带的产出位置,这无疑对此类隐伏矿床的地球化学勘查具有重要意义,也为其他类型矿床的地球化学勘查提供了思路。     

On the coupling of hydrography,phytoplankton, zooplankton,and settling organic particles offshore in the Arabian Sea

Processes and issues related to the connections between hydrography, plankton, and the flux of organic carbon to great depth are reviewed for the offshore Arabian Sea and compared with observations in similar regimes of other seas. The south-north and west-east gradients and seasonality in the Arabian Sea are emphasized, but generalizations about the area as a whole are shunned. New data include regional differences in seasonality of satellite-observed chlorophyll for two years. The rule for the depth dependence of organic flux is unclear, therefore, this should be the first priority for future investigations. While the data for supply of organic carbon by settling and demand for the depth interval 200–1,000 m in the eastern Arabian Sea are in fair agreement, this is not true for the interval between 300 and 400 m. For advancing the understanding of the generation of flux in the upper layers and the consumption at depth, very much needs to be learned about the biology of the principal species of Zooplankton and nekton. To keep the task manageable, further studies of flux should focus on only one or two subdivisions of the Arabian Sea.     

霍林河流域下游地区土地利用变化动态及趋势预测

霍林河流域下游地区为半农半牧区,土地利用的变化对该地区的生态环境会产生重大的影响。采用空间分析测算模型,揭示了1989～2001年期间该地区土地利用的空间变化特征以及土地利用类型三减（草地、水体、湿地）两增（耕地和未利用土地）的变化规律;并通过马尔可夫模型预测出未来24年内该区土地利用类型的演变趋势,得出水田、旱田、林地、城乡用地的继续增加是以草地、水域、湿地的减少为代价的结论,对生态环境的保护和土地资源的合理利用具有参考价值。     

北京顺义地裂缝带的活动特征及减灾措施

本文详细调查了北京顺义地裂缝带的展布和成灾特征,实测了地裂缝灾害最为严重的橡胶二厂内地裂缝的位置和建筑物破坏范围,并综合已有关于顺义地裂缝成因的研究,认为顺义地裂缝带的防治应以控制地下水的开采为根本措施。基于地裂缝的发育程度及成灾特点,在不考虑构造因素的前提下,提出了橡胶二厂建筑用地规划中安全距离的避让方案,即以主破裂带为中心基准线,西北侧建筑安全距离为12m,东南侧建筑安全距离为16m。     

甘肃北山辉铜山铜矿地球化学异常结构研究

以甘肃北山辉铜山铜矿为例,探讨了矽卡岩型铜矿中元素的富集贫化特征以及由富集、贫化元素形成的正、负异常构成的地球化学异常结构.结果表明,在矿床中发生富集的元素,例如成矿元素Cu、矿化伴生元素As、Ag、Mo等、常量组分MgO等在试验区内形成了明显的环带结构,中间为这些元素的正异常,向外经背景带过渡为负异常.这些元素的正异...     

On the estimation of scale of fluctuation in geostatistics

Describing how soil properties vary spatially is of particular importance in stochastic analyses of geotechnical problems, because spatial variability has a significant influence on local material and global geotechnical response. In particular, the scale of fluctuation θ is a key parameter in the correlation model used to represent the spatial variability of a site through a random field. It is, therefore, of fundamental importance to accurately estimate θ in order to best model the actual soil heterogeneity. In this paper, two methodologies are investigated to assess their abilities to estimate the vertical and horizontal scales of fluctuation of a particular site using in situ cone penetration test (CPT) data. The first method belongs to the family of more traditional approaches, which are based on best fitting a theoretical correlation model to available CPT data. The second method involves a new strategy which combines information from conditional random fields with the traditional approach. Both methods are applied to a case study involving the estimation of θ at three two-dimensional sections across a site and the results obtained show general agreement between the two methods, suggesting a similar level of accuracy between the new and traditional approaches. However, in order to further assess the relative accuracy of estimates provided by each method, a second numerical analysis is proposed. The results confirm the general consistency observed in the case study calculations, particularly in the vertical direction where a large amount of data are available. Interestingly, for the horizontal direction, where data are typically scarce, some additional improvement in terms of relative error is obtained with the new approach.     

塔河油田古近系陆相油气地球化学特征及其远距离成藏模式

通过对塔河油田古近系油气藏油气物理性质、饱和烃色谱、分子标志化合物及碳同位素等地球化学特征研究,发现塔河 古近系油气藏油气均表现出陆相油气地球化学特征,与塔河油田海相油气特征形成鲜明对比。结合前人对塔北地区烃源岩研 究成果分析,认为塔河古近系油气来源于库车坳陷三叠系-侏罗系烃源岩。库车坳陷充足的油气源是塔河油田古近系油气成 藏的物质基础。喜马拉雅期塔河中新生界区域北倾构成了油气由北向南运移的构造背景,库车坳陷烃源岩在新近纪康村组沉 积晚期-库车组沉积早期达到高成熟期,其所生油气沿南翼斜坡的输导系统向南运移至古近系圈闭成藏。塔北地区古近系与 白垩系之间的不整合是北部陆相油气远距离侧向运移的重要通道,油气向南侧向运移直线距离超过100 km。塔北地区古近系泥 岩是良好的区域盖层,多种成藏要素相互配合造就了塔河古近系远距离油气聚集模式,该模式较为合理的解释了塔河地区古近 系油气藏分布特征,丰富了对塔河碎屑岩油气成藏规律认识,有助于塔河地区新生界碎屑岩油气勘探领域的进一步拓展。     

三江并流带环境地质与基础设施建设对策浅析

三江并流带位于印度板块与欧亚板块的缝合线部位，新构造运动强烈，构造发育，岩石破碎，地势陡峻，地质环境异常脆弱，地震、滑坡、崩塌、泥石流等地质灾害频繁。区内旅游资源、生物资源、水利资源、矿产资源、人资源极为丰富，是西部大开发中极有前景的地域，亟需加强基础设施建设。为了保护三江并流带的自然环境、生态环境、地质环境，在公路、水电等基础设施的建设中，应该采取开发与保护并重的对策。本针对该区新构造运动发育、岩石强烈破碎的特点，分析在公路、水电等基础设施建设中给区域环境地质带来的不良影响，并提出处治措施与对策建议。     

On the Use of Changes in Dihedral Angle to Decode Late-stage Textural Evolution in Cumulates

The melt-filled pore structure in the final stages of solidificationof cumulates must lie somewhere between the two end-membersof impingement (in which pore topology is controlled entirelyby the juxtaposition of growth faces of adjacent grains) andtextural equilibrium (in which pore topology is controlled bythe minimization of internal energies). The exact position betweenthese two end-members is controlled by the relative rates ofcrystal growth and textural equilibration. For samples in whichgrowth has stopped, or is very slow, textural equilibrium willprevail. A close examination of dihedral angles in natural examplesdemonstrates that these two end-member textures can be distinguished.The impingement end-member results in a population of apparentsolid–melt dihedral angles with a median of 60° anda standard deviation of 25–30°, whereas the texturallyequilibrated end-member population has a median of 28° anda standard deviation of 14°. For the specific case of cumulatesin the Rum Layered Intrusion, residual porosity in troctoliticcumulates was close to the impingement end-member, whereas thatin peridotites was close to melt-bearing textural equilibrium.Suites of glass-bearing samples from small, or frequently disturbed,magma systems show modification of initial impingement textures.These modifications may be a consequence of textural equilibrationor of diffusion-limited growth during quenching. Distinctioncan be made between these two processes by a consideration ofgrain shape. The geometry of interstitial phases in suites offully solidified cumulates from the Rum Layered Intrusion showsvariable approach to sub-solidus textural equilibrium from aninitial state inherited by pseudmorphing of the last melt. Texturalequilibration at pore corners occurs as a continuous process,with a gradual movement of the entire dihedral angle populationtowards the equilibrium final state. If the initial, pseudomorphedstate is one of disequilibrium (i.e. a melt-present impingementtexture) this change is accompanied by a reduction in the spreadof the population. If it is one of equilibrium, the change isaccompanied by an initial increase in the spread of the population,followed by a decrease. These observations demonstrate thatpreviously published models of dihedral angle change involvingthe instantaneous establishment of the equilibrium angle inthe immediate vicinity of the pore corner are incorrect. KEY WORDS: cumulate; dihedral angle; textural evolution; Rum intrusion; Kula; Santorini     

论太湖平原防治地面沉降的根本途径

本文在地下水开采－水位降落漏斗－地面沉降相关分析的基础上,认为防治太湖平原地面沉降的根本途径在加于强水资源统一规划和管理,加速引用长江水,大力治理水污染,最大限度地压缩地下水开采量。认为以“警戒水位”和“危险水位”作为控制指标,用时空信息系统进行动态管理,是有效的方法。     

高填土地基强夯夯击能的使用研究

结合广东某电厂高填土地基强夯的实践，对夯击能的使用问题提出几点看法，并根据现场孔隙水压力和变形监测及夯后检测等资料。说明如何正确选用夯击能以达到更好的加固效果。     

矿脉“线性递变不等距”分布规律与构造关系研究——以广西都庞岭地区南竹河锡矿床为例

广西都庞岭地区南竹河锡矿床产于花岗岩体的内外接触带,以脉状为主,受断裂构造控制.通过地表与深部构造相结合的研究,发现该矿床矿脉在时空分布上具有"线性递变不等距"分布规律,即矿脉在横向分布和纵向分布上分别表现为矿脉组间距、矿脉组内脉间距及矿脉段间距均具有线性递增规律.这种规律在南岭地区的九毛-六秀、芙蓉等锡矿田(床)也有表现.另外,对这种规律产生的构造原因也进行了初步探讨.