Influence of a convective generator on the diurnal behavior of the electric field strength in the near-Earth atmosphere in Kamchatka

Diurnal variations in the electric field strength, electrical conductivity, and temperature in the near-Earth atmosphere under “fair-weather” conditions at the Paratunka observatory (Kamchatka) are considered. It is shown that the morning maximum in the electric field diurnal behavior is caused by air convection in the near-surface layer. The difference in the atmospheric temperatures near the Earth’s surface and at an altitude of 25 m is chosen as a measure of the convective air flow. A high correlation of the values of the temperature difference for these altitudes with the diurnal behavior of the electric field strength is obtained.     

Power spectra of thermal tidal and planetary waves in the near-Earth atmosphere and in the ionospheric D region at Kamchatka

Spectral analysis of the diurnal variations in the quasi-static electric field in the near-Earth atmosphere and VLF atmospheric radio noise at a frequency of 5.3 kHz, simultaneously observed in September–October 1999 at Paratunka observatory of the Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Radiowave Propagation, has been performed. The variations in the intensities of the spectral power density and the period durations of the variations in the T ～ 8–24 h band and higher as functions of geomagnetic and seismic activities have been studied.     

Electromagnetic anomaly before earthquakes measured by electromagnetic experiments

Three experiments are carried out for earthquake monitoring using electromagnetic (EM) methods in recent years. Some earthquakes occurred in chance of the measurement time period for each experiment and the anomalies were recorded before the shocks. The observation at a site 20 km away from the epicenter of Zhangbei MS6.2 earthquake in 1998 shows that the apparent resistivity decreases in the strike direction before and/or during the earthquake and the resistivity increases in the de-cline direction. This a...     

Effects of strong earthquakes in variations of electrical and meteorological parameters of the near-surface atmosphere in Kamchatka region

The diurnal variations in electrical (quasistatic electric field and electrical conductivity) and meteorological (temperature, pressure, relative humidity of the atmosphere, and wind speed) parameters, measured simultaneously before strong earthquakes in Kamchatka region (November 15, 2006, М = 8.3; January 13, 2007, М = 8.1; January 30, 2016, М = 7.2), are studied for the first time in detail. It is found that a successively anomalous increase in temperature, despite the negative regular trend in these winter months, was observed in the period of six–seven days before the occurrences of earthquakes. An anomalous temperature increase led to the formation of “winter thunderstorm” conditions in the near-surface atmosphere of Kamchatka region, which was manifested in the appearance of an anomalous, type 2 electrical signal, the amplification of and intensive variations in electrical conductivity, heavy precipitation (snow showers), high relative humidity of air, storm winds, and pressure changes. With the weak flow of natural heat radiation in this season, the observed dynamics of electric and meteorological processes can likely be explained by the appearance of an additional heat source of seismic nature.     

The spatial and temporal changes inV p /V s before strong earthquakes in Kamchatka

A method was developed to obtain from a signal station the spatial and temporal distribution ofV _p /V _s ratios before earthquakes of magnitude>6. It was shown thatV _p /V _s values strongly depend upon the relative positions of the stations, the future large earthquake and the foci of the smaller earthquakes used forV _p /V _s determination. The appearance of a zone of anomalousV _p /V _s values with linear dimensions of the order of 100 km was noted at least 4 years before a deep earthquake of magnitude 7. Similar size anomalous zones were detected one year before some magnitude 6 earthquakes. V _p /V _s values decreased by a small but distinct amount during this time. Additionally, local short term minima inV _p /V _s ratios were observed some months before the major event. The epicenters of the large earthquakes were located within the 100 km size zone where the gradients of theV _p /V _s field were largest.     

都江堰电磁波震前异常初探

本文对都江堰地震台2类电磁波仪的震前记录进行分析,震前仪器记录到了电磁波异常现象:2006年6月21日甘肃文县5.0级、2006年7月22日和2006年8月25日云南盐津2次5.1级地震,这些说明电磁波监测在地震短临预报中有参考意义。     

Ultra low frequeney electromagnetic wave anomaly and its spectrum characteristics before earthquakes

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Ultra low frequency electromagnetic wave anomaly and its spectrum characteristics before earthquakes

Many observations and researches show that abundant and intense ultra low frequency (ULF) electromagnetic anomalies appeare before local earthquakes. In order to understand this phenomenon systematically, the transmission property and the formation of the seismic-electric dipole are discussed in this paper. The results show that the vertical component of the ULF electric anomaly before earthquake has the properties of better penetration, less disturbance and high signal-to-noise ratio. The signal can be easily extracted and received. The anomaly should be an important way to seek for reliable short-term and imminent earthquake precursors. After the spectrum analysis of the (ULF) electric field anomalies, we found that the periods of the anomaly related to local earthquakes are from a few minutes to a dozens minutes. There is a relation between the spectrum of the anomaly and the epicentral distance. The ULF electric field anomalies strongly rely on the orientation of the seismogenic zone. The percolation electric field anomaly and its spectrum amplitude do not have obvious relation with the size of local earthquakes. Contribution No. 94A0097, Institute of Geophysics, SSB, China. The English version is improved by Prof. Guo-Hua FAN, Institute of Geophysics, State Seismological Bureau.     

Effects of solar and geomagnetic activities in variations of power spectra of electrical and meteorological parameters in the near-Earth atmosphere in Kamchatka during October 2003 solar events

We perform spectral analysis of records of meteorological (temperature, humidity, pressure of the atmosphere) and electrical (strength of quasi-static electric field and electric conductivity of air) parameters observed simultaneously at the Paratunka observatory during the solar events of October 21–31, 2003. Also, we use simultaneous records of X-ray fluxes of solar radiation, galactic cosmic rays, and the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field. We show that the power spectra of the meteorological parameters under fine weather conditions involve oscillations with a period of thermal tidal waves (T ～ 12 and 24 h) caused by the influx of thermal radiation of the Sun. During strong solar flares and geomagnetic storm of October 29–31 with a prevailing component of T ～ 24 h, their spectra involve an additional component of T ～ 48 h (the period of planetary-scale waves). With the development of solar and geomagnetic activities, the power spectra of atmospheric electric conductivity and electric field stress involve components of both thermal tidal and planetary-scale waves, which vary highly by intensity. In the power spectra of galactic cosmic rays accompanying the strong solar flares, components with T ～ 48 h were dominant with the appearance of additional (weaker by intensity) components with T ～ 24 h. The simultaneous amplification of components with T ～ 48 h in the power spectra of electric conductivity and electric field strength provides evidence of the fact that the lower troposphere is mainly ionized by galactic cosmic rays during strong solar flares and geomagnetic storms. The specified oscillation period with T ～ 48 h in their spectra, as well as in the spectra of X-ray radiation of the sun, is apparently caused by the dynamics of solar and geomagnetic activities with this time scale.     

Hardware complex for recording soil gas concentrations and searching for precursor anomalies before strong earthquakes in South Kamchatka

At the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky geodynamic test site the instrumental complex has operated for the registration of subsurface gas concentration since 2006. In this paper the main components of the complex and their capabilities are described. To illustrate the work of the complex the dynamics of subsurface gas concentrations in the period from February to March 2011 (before and after the earthquake off the coast of Japan, March 11, 2011, M = 9.0) in one of the registration points was analyzed. These data indicate geodynamic processes during this period in the considered area at the point of subsurface gas registration. Selected dynamics anomalies of the subsurface gas concentrations can be regarded as a short-term remote precursor of the earthquake off the coast of Japan.     

Modeling and forecasting the aftershock processes in Kamchatka

The aftershock processes that occurred in 1990–2008 on the Kamchatka Peninsula and in the adjacent water area are numerically modeled with the aim of forecasting the aftershock activity. The aftershocks are identified by the Molchan-Dmitrieva algorithm followed by the analysis of spatiotemporal distribution of the earthquakes, which gives the final aftershock sequences. The simulations are based on the relaxation and triggering models of the aftershock processes. The studied models adequately describe and reliably simulate the temporal behavior of the aftershock sequences. An attempt is made to forecast the aftershock processes in Kamchatka using the ETAS model. It is shown that forecasting based on the data observed during the preceding time intervals is quite accurate. This approach can be applied in the centers of seismological monitoring for estimating the aftershock activity within the first days after a strong earthquake.

     

Modeling and forecasting the aftershock processes in Kamchatka

The aftershock processes that occurred in 1990?C2008 on the Kamchatka Peninsula and in the adjacent water area are numerically modeled with the aim of forecasting the aftershock activity. The aftershocks are identified by the Molchan-Dmitrieva algorithm followed by the analysis of spatiotemporal distribution of the earthquakes, which gives the final aftershock sequences. The simulations are based on the relaxation and triggering models of the aftershock processes. The studied models adequately describe and reliably simulate the temporal behavior of the aftershock sequences. An attempt is made to forecast the aftershock processes in Kamchatka using the ETAS model. It is shown that forecasting based on the data observed during the preceding time intervals is quite accurate. This approach can be applied in the centers of seismological monitoring for estimating the aftershock activity within the first days after a strong earthquake.     

Mechanism of volcanic earthquakes of the Sheveluch volcano,Kamchatka

Determinations of the local mechanisms of three volcanic earthquakes are given connected with the eruption of the Sheveluch volcano (November, 1964). As initial material the data on first arrivals of P-waves are used. The local mechanism of all three earthquakes is close to a strike-slip type of faulting and similar to the focal mechanism of tectonic earthquakes of Kamchatka. One nodal surface of all the volcanic earthquakes strikes in the same direction as the outbursts of the directed volcano explosions.     

Diurnal periodicity of weak earthquakes and high-frequency underground noise in Kamchatka

We have analyzed the data on the times and number of weak earthquakes (M = 0–2.5) included in the up-to-date (final version) Catalog of Kamchatka Earthquakes for 1995–2008, and the intensity of highfrequency underground noise measured in the deep borehole near Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy (according to the literature data). We calculated the spectra of the seismic time series within the range of periods from 1 to 48 hours with a step of one minute. It was found that the spectrum of the earthquake data series contains a significant high Q extremum in a period of 24 hours that can be linked with a similar period in the high-frequency underground noise in Kamchatka and in the Russian Platform. There are some grounds to suggest that the weak earthquakes and the underground noise (seismoacoustic emission) have the same nature. In both cases, the shapes of the curve of the diurnal periodicity are found to depend on the duration of light during the day. The probable reasons for the solar impact on the seismic emission processes are discussed.     

Precursors of large Kamchatka earthquakes based on monitoring of seismic noise

This paper presents results from a monitoring study in high frequency seismic noise in Kamchatka during 1992–2006 and reports their use for predicting large regional earthquakes (M ≥ 6.0) in an epicentral distance range Δ within 400 km. The prediction is based on an original method using earth tides as the standard external excitation to study patterns of seismic emission. The method as used at present is described in detail. Guidelines are delineated for future refinement of the prediction method.     

KamIn information system for monitoring wave perturbations in the atmosphere on the Kamchatka Peninsula

The KamIn information system (IS) created at the Kamchatka Branch of GS RAS to collect, store, and preprocess data on the wave perturbations in the atmosphere is described. The KamIn IS observation system and infrastructure are described in detail; they make it possible to select infrasonic signals that occur during volcanic eruptions on Kamchatka and in the northern Kurile Islands both in the operational and regular mode. The results of the IS performance in 2010–2016 are summarized.     

Magnetic perturbations before the strong earthquakes

The search for the magnetic precursors of earthquakes by the method of synchronous detection is described. The data of the Guam Observatory (13.6°N, 144.9°E) located in a seismically active region and the USGS/NEIC catalogue of the National Earthquake Information Center of the U.S. Geological Survey for the period from 1991 to 2009 are used. Earthquakes with magnitudes M ≥ 7 in the range of longitudes from 100° to 170°E are analyzed. The intervals of accumulation cover 40 hours before and 40 hours after an earthquake. The preliminary result reveals an enhancement of fluctuations in the Z-component within 12 hours before the earthquake.     

Atmospheric anomalies and anomalies of electricity in the near-surface atmosphere before the Kamchatka earthquake of January 30, 2016, based on the data from the Paratunka Observatory

The 15-min data of vertical ionosphere sounding and 10-min data from measurements of the vertical component (Ez) of the near-surface quasistatic atmospheric electrical field and the respective values of electrical conductance of near-surface air at the Paratunka complex geophysical observatory in the period from January 28 to January 30, 2016 have been analyzed to reveal the possible anomalies preceding the M = 7.2 earthquake that occurred on January 30, 2016, at 0325 UT. The distance between the observatory and epicenter was 117 km. These anomalies have been revealed, and the majority of them, in our opinion, may be related to the processes of earthquake preparation.     

Correlation of the anomalies in the electric field and electric conductivity of the lithosphere to earthquakes in Kamchatka

The data of long-term electromagnetic monitoring are used for studying the dynamics of electric conductivity of the medium and the electric field of the terrestrial sources. The electric conductivity of the medium is estimated from the magnetotelluric transfer functions (impedance tensor and telluric tensor). The electric field of terrestrial sources is identified by filtering the variations of the observed electric field of the Earth. The magnetotelluric parameters and the electric field of terrestrial sources feature anomalous changes of supposedly earthquake-related origin. The anomalies associated with the same earthquake are not simultaneous. It is shown that these anomalies are generated by processes occurring at different depths. The strong earthquake is preceded by the appearance of surface anomalies several months before the event and accompanied by a deep coseismic anomaly. The probable nature of the recognized anomalies is discussed.