Extreme storm surge modelling in the North Sea

This study shows that storm surge model performance in the North Sea is mostly unaffected by the application of temporal variations of surface drag due to changes in sea state provided the choice of a suitable constant Charnock parameter in the sea-state-independent case. Including essential meteorological features on smaller scales and minimising interpolation errors by increasing forcing data resolution are shown to be more important for the improvement of model performance particularly at the high tail of the probability distribution. This is found in a modelling study using WAQUA/DCSMv5 by evaluating the influence of a realistic air-sea momentum transfer parameterization and comparing it to the influence of changes in the spatial and temporal resolution of the applied forcing fields in an effort to support the improvement of impact and climate analysis studies. Particular attention is given to the representation of extreme water levels over the past decades based on the example of the Netherlands. For this, WAQUA/DCSMv5 is forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Model results are obtained from a set of different forcing fields, which either (i) include a wave-state-dependent Charnock parameter or (ii) apply a constant Charnock parameter (α _{C h} =?0.032) tuned for young sea states in the North Sea, but differ in their spatial and/or temporal resolution. Increasing forcing field resolution from roughly 79 to 12 km through dynamically downscaling can reduce the modelled low bias, depending on coastal station, by up to 0.25 m for the modelled extreme water levels with a 1-year return period and between 0.1 m and 0.5 m for extreme surge heights.     

Simulation of the 1953 storm surge in the North Sea

The 1953 North Sea floods, the Big Flood, was one of the worst natural disasters in Europe in modern times and is probably one of the most studied severe coastal floods. Several factors led to the devastating storm surge along the southern North Sea coast in combination of strong and sustained northerly winds, invert barometric effect, high spring tide, and an accumulation of the large surge in the Strait of Dover. However, the storm waves and their roles during the 1953 North Sea storm surge are not well investigated. Therefore, the effect of wave setup due to breaking waves in the storm surge processes is investigated through numerical experiments. A coupled process-based tide-wave-surge model was used to investigate and simulate the storm surge in the North Sea during January 31–February 1, 1953 and validated by comparing with historical water level records at tide gauges and wave observations at light vessels in the North Sea. Meteorological forcing inputs for the period, January 27–February 3, 1953 are reproduced from ERA-20C reanalysis data with a constant correction factor for winds. From the simulation results, it is found that, in addition to the high water due to wind setup, wave setup due to breaking waves nearshore play a role of approximately 10% of the storm surge peaks with approximately 0.2 m. The resulting modeling system can be used extensively for the preparedness of the storm surge and wave of extreme condition, and usual barotropic forecast.     

Dispersion of surface plumes in the Southern North Sea

Summary Continuous releases of fluorescent dye were made in the southern North Sea and the power law dependence of the plume width, represented by _y , against the diffusion time determined. The spreading was non-Fickian and could be represented in the form _y ² =B ² t whereB was a diffusion velocity of magnitude 1.4×10^–2 m/s. Such spreading was reproduced in both particle tracking and finite difference plume models by allowing the horizontal diffusivity,K _H, to depend linearly on diffusion time. The weakness of this method is that it is not clear how the diffusion parameters can be extrapolated to weather conditions that are different to those prevailing at the time of the experiments. However, comparable spreading rates were obtained by combining a Fickian diffusion model with an advective field that represented the near-surface current shears due to wind and waves. The resulting shear diffusion effect produced realistic simulation of the observed dispersion rates. An advantage of this approach is that it enables predictions to be made over a range of weather conditions provided that the wind and wave shears can be accurately parameterized.

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Ausbreitung von Tracerwolken an der Oberfläche in der südlichen Nordsee

Zusammenfassung Fluoreszierender Farbstoff wurde in der südlichen Nordsee kontinuierlich freigesetzt und die Breite der Wolke, repräsentiert durch _y , in Abhägigkeit von der Ausbreitungszeit bestimmt. Die Ausbreitung folgte nicht dem Fickschen Ansatz und konnte in der Form _y ² =B ² t dargestellt werden, wobeiB eine Ausbreitungsgeschwindigkeit von der Größenordnung 1.4×10^–2 m/s darstellt. Eine derartige Ausbreitung wurde sowohl mit Modellen des Partikel-Tracking als auch mit Modellen der finiten Differenzen reproduziert, wobei die horizontale AusbreitungsgrößeK _H linear von der Diffusionszeit abhängig war. Die Schwäche dieser Methode ist, daß es nicht klar ist, wie die Diffusions-Parameter für andere Wetterbedingungen als zur Zeit des Experiments zu extrapolieren wären. Vergleichbare Ausbreitungsverhältnisse werden durch die Kombination eines Fickschen Diffusionsmodells mit einem advektiven Feld erreicht, welches die oberflächennahen durch Wind und Wellen verursachten Stromscherungen berücksichtigt. Der so resultierende Scher-Diffusions-Effekt erbrachte ein realistische Simulation der beobachteten Ausbreitung. Ein Vorteil dieses Vorgehens ist, daß es Vorhersagen über einen Bereich von Wetterbedingungen ermöglicht, vorausgesetzt, daß die durch Wind und Wellen verurschte Scherung zutreffend parameterisiert werden kann.

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La dispersion de la panache de surface dans la partie sud de la Mer du Nord

Résumé A partir de déversements continus de produits fluorescents effectués dans la partie sud de la Mer du Nord, on a pu déterminer l'expression de la largeur du panache _y , par son carré en fonction du temps de diffusion. La dispersion n'était pas du type Fickian et était représentée sous la forme _y ² =B ² t aB était une vitesse de diffusion de grandeur égale 1.4×10^–2 m/s. Une telle dispersion peut être reproduite par une modélisation du panache à la fois par suivi de particules et aux différences finies en admettant que le coefficient de diffusion horizontaleK _H dépendait linéairement du temps. L'inconvénient de cette méthode est qu'il n'est pas facile de savoir comment les paramètres de diffusion peuvent être extrapolés à des conditions météorologiques différentes de celles prévalant au moment des expériences. Quoi qu'il en soit, des taux de dispersion comparables ont été obtenus en combinant un modèle de diffusion Fickian avec un champ d'advection qui représentait les cisaillements de courant de surface dus au vent et aux vagues. L'effet de diffusion du cisaillement résultant produisit une simulation réaliste des taux de dispersion observés. Un avantage de cette approche est de rendre possible des prédictions réalisées à travers un éventail de conditions météorologiques à condition que les cisaillements liés au vent et aux vagues puissent être paramétrisés avec précision.

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Tidal flow simulation in the English Channel and Southern North Sea

This paper presents the results of the II Tidal Flow Forum experiment of the English Channel and the southern North Sea. The model applies the FADI (falsified alternating direction implicit) scheme and uses the data base of the Tidal Flow Forum. Discrepancies between the model results and the distributed field data of 11 tide stations and 8 tidal current measurement points are shown graphically and are quantified by calculating the RMS (root mean square) errors and the standard deviations. Sensitivity tests have been carried out by changing some parameters (frictions, Coriolis, …). The results which best fit the reference data were obtained by using the Manning's friction law. By doing so, the model can more appropriately adapt the complex bathymetry. The improvements are shown graphically.     

Investigating the effects of a summer storm on the North Sea stratification using a regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model

The influence of a summer storm event in 2007 on the North Sea and its effects on the ocean stratification are investigated using a regional coupled ocean (Regional Ocean Modeling System, ROMS)-atmosphere (Weather Research & Forecasting model, WRF) modeling system. An analysis of potential energy anomaly (PEA, Φ) and its temporal development reveals that the loss of stratification due to the storm event is dominated by vertical mixing in almost the entire North Sea. For specific regions, however, a considerable contribution of depth-mean straining is observed. Vertical mixing is highly correlated with wind induced surface stresses. However, peak mixing values are observed in combination with incoming flood currents. Depending on the phase between winds and tides, the loss of stratification differs strongly over the North Sea. To study the effects of interactive ocean-atmosphere exchange, a fully coupled simulation is compared with two uncoupled ones for the same vertical mixing parameters to identify the impact of spatial resolution as well as of SST feedback. While the resulting new mixed layer depth after the storm event in the uncoupled simulation with lower spatial and temporal resolution of the surface forcing data can still be located in the euphotic zone, the coupled simulation is capable to mix the entire water column and the vertical mixing in the uncoupled simulation with higher resolution of the surface forcing data is strongly amplified. These differences might have notable implications for ecosystem modeling since it could determine the development of new phytoplankton blooms after the storm and for sediment modeling in terms of sediment mobilization. An investigation of restratification after the extreme event illustrates the persistent effect of this summer storm.     

Adjoint free four-dimensional variational data assimilation for a storm surge model of the German North Sea

In this paper, a data assimilation scheme based on the adjoint free Four-Dimensional Variational(4DVar) method is applied to an existing storm surge model of the German North Sea. To avoid the need of an adjoint model, an ensemble-like method to explicitly represent the linear tangent equation is adopted. Results of twin experiments have shown that the method is able to recover the contaminated low dimension model parameters to their true values. The data assimilation scheme was applied to a severe storm surge event which occurred in the North Sea in December 5, 2013. By adjusting wind drag coefficient, the predictive ability of the model increased significantly. Preliminary experiments have shown that an increase in the predictive ability is attained by narrowing the data assimilation time window.     

Volatile Organic Compounds in Various Marine Organisms From the Southern North Sea

The concentration levels of 12 priority volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were determined in two species of vertebrates and four species of invertebrates from sampling stations in the southern North Sea, using a modified Tekmar LSC 2000 purge and trap system coupled to gas chromatograph–mass spectrometer (GC–MS). In general, concentration levels of VOCs found in this study were of the same order of magnitude as those previously reported in the literature. The concentrations of the chlorinated hydrocarbons (CHCs), with the exception of chloroform, tended to be lower than those of the monocyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (MAHs). The experimental data were statistically evaluated using both cluster analysis and principal component analysis (PCA). From the results of cluster analysis and PCA, no specific groups could be distinguished on the basis of geographical, temporal or biological parameters. However, based on the cluster analysis and the PCA, the VOCs could be divided into three groups, C₂-substituted benzenes, CHCs and benzene plus toluene. This division could be related to different types of sources. Finally, it was shown that organisms can be used to monitor the presence of VOCs in the marine environment and the observed concentrations levels were compared with proposed safety levels.     

Morphological response of a barrier island system on a catastrophic event: the AD 1634 North Sea storm

The AD 1634 North Sea storm is one of the most catastrophic storms along the Wadden Sea coast of Denmark. In this study we show how pre‐1634 storm morphology exerted a strong control on the resulting post‐storm coastal morphology. Erosional responses associated with the storm were barrier breaching, dune scarping and shoreface erosion and accretionary responses were washover deposition, shoreface healing and barrier‐island formation. Local sediment sources appeared to have a particularly strong influence on post‐storm coastal evolution and allowed a very rapid formation of a barrier shoal which resulted in several kilometres of coastal progradation. Sediment budgets suggest that formation of the barrier shoal was possible, but the sediment transport rates in the decades after the 1634 storm, must have been two to three times higher than present‐day rates. The study demonstrates that catastrophic storms are capable of moving large amounts of sediments over relatively short time‐periods and can create barrier shoals, whereas moderate storms mostly rework the shoal or barrier and create more local erosion and/or landward migration. Catastrophic storms substantially influence long‐term and large‐scale coastal evolution, and storms may positively contribute to the sediment budget and promote coastal progradation in coastal areas with longshore sediment convergence. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identification of extreme storm surges with high-impact potential along the German North Sea coastline

Planning and design of coastal protection rely on information about the probabilities of very severe storm tides and the possible changes that may occur in the course of climate change. So far, this information is mostly provided in the form of high percentiles obtained from frequency distributions or return values. More detailed information and assessments of events that may cause extreme damages or have extreme consequences at the coast are so far still unavailable. We describe and compare two different approaches that may be used to identify highly unlikely but still physically possible and plausible events from model simulations. Firstly, in the case when consistent wind and tide-surge data are available, different metrics such as the height of the storm surge can be derived directly from the simulated water levels. Secondly, in cases where only atmospheric data are available, the so called effective wind may be used. The latter is the projection of the horizontal wind vector on that direction which is most effective in producing surges at the coast. Comparison of events identified by both methods show that they can identify extreme events but that knowledge of the effective wind alone does not provide sufficient information to identify the highest storm surges. Tracks of the low-pressure systems over the North Sea need to be investigated to find those cases, where the duration of the high wind is too short to induce extreme storm tides. On the other hand, factors such as external surges or variability in mean sea level may enhance surge heights and are not accounted for in estimates based on effective winds only. Results from the analysis of an extended data set suggest that unprecedented storm surges at the German North Sea coast are possible even without taking effects from rising mean sea level into account. The work presented is part of the ongoing project “Extreme North Sea Storm Surges and Their Consequences” (EXTREMENESS) and represents the first step towards an impact assessment for very severe storm surges which will serve as a basis for development of adaptation options and evaluation criteria.     

Short and medium term dynamics of the carbon exchange between the Baltic Sea and the North Sea

A detailed analysis of the short and medium term dynamics of the carbon exchange between the Baltic Sea and the North Sea is presented. To quantify the carbon fluxes distinguishing the Baltic and North Sea water masses, the salinity-based End Members (EM) method was successfully applied. The results of 0.63±0.25×10¹² mol C year⁻¹ identify the Baltic Sea as a net source of carbon for the North Sea. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was found to contribute significantly (22%) to the bulk of exported carbon. The levels determined suggest the hydrology-dependence of the carbon fluxes in the Danish Straits, which stimulates the high variability of carbon fluxes at both interseasonal and interannual scales.     

Dissolved copper,zinc and cadmium in the Southern Bight of the North Sea

Concentrations of dissolved copper, zinc and cadmium have been measured in the Dutch and Belgian coastal and offshore regions of the Southern Bight (North Sea), with the aim to compare levels in the central, most saline part of the Bight with those in the coastal region that is under the influence of the rivers Rhine and Scheldt, as well as with those in open ocean surface waters.     

The statistics of wave height and crest elevation during the December 2012 storm in the North Sea

This paper concerns new field measurements of wave height and crest elevation probability distributions as measured in the North Sea during a storm in December 2012. The water surface elevation was recorded by Saab WaveRadar REX instruments mounted on eight fixed-jacket platforms in addition to a Datawell Directional Waverider buoy. The storm generated an easterly sea state which peaked well in excess of the 100-year wave height for that direction in the region. Furthermore, 19 freak waves occurred during the storm according to the definition as reported by Haver (2000). The present study demonstrates that the significant steepness and spectral bandwidth during the storm remain almost constant. Consequently, there is little change in the commonly applied design wave height and crest elevation probability distributions throughout the storm. Whilst the bulk of the recorded data was in good agreement with the theoretical distributions, it was demonstrated that when the wind speed was larger than 25 m/s, the measured crest elevation lies above the second-order Forristall distribution.     

Comparison of numerical hindcasted severe waves with Doppler radar measurements in the North Sea

Severe sea states in the North Sea present a challenge to wave forecasting systems and a threat to offshore installations such as oil and gas platforms and offshore wind farms. Here, we study the ability of a third-generation spectral wave model to reproduce winter sea states in the North Sea. Measured and modeled time series of integral wave parameters and directional wave spectra are compared for a 12-day period in the winter of 2013–2014 when successive severe storms moved across the North Atlantic and the North Sea. Records were obtained from a Doppler radar and wave buoys. The hindcast was performed with the WAVEWATCH III model (Tolman 2014) with high spectral resolution both in frequency and direction. A good general agreement was obtained for integrated parameters, but discrepancies were found to occur in spectral shapes.     

Wave climate and long-term changes for the Southern North Sea obtained from a high-resolution hindcast 1958–2002

An analysis of the extreme wave conditions in 1958–2002 in the North Sea as obtained from a regional model hindcast is presented. The model was driven by hourly wind fields obtained from a regional atmosphere model forced with reanalysis data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/NCAR). Furthermore, observed sea ice conditions from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute have been accounted for in the simulation. It is shown that the model is capable of reproducing extreme wave height statistics at a reasonable degree of approximation. The analysis of severe wave height events reveals that for much of the Southern North Sea, their number has increased since the beginning of the simulation period (1958), although the increase has attenuated later and leveled off around about 1985. On the other hand, the intensity and duration of severe wave height events decreased within the last few years of the simulation so that annual 99%-ile wave heights have also reduced since about 1990–1995. For the UK North Sea coast, a different behavior was found characterized by a reduction in severe wave conditions over much of the hindcast period.     

Spatial differences in sand wave dynamics between the Amsterdam and the Rotterdam region in the Southern North Sea

The optimization of the bathymetric resurvey policy of the Netherlands Hydrographic Service requires insight into sea floor dynamics in the Southern North Sea. To study the spatial variations in sea floor dynamics, the bathymetric archives of the Netherlands Hydrographic Service are analyzed using deformation analysis, a statistical and innovative approach for bathymetric data. Based on the uncertainty of the data, our implementation of deformation analysis selects the significant spatial and temporal parameters, and provides estimates and their uncertainties for those parameters. We focus on sand wave areas in the regions of Rotterdam and of Amsterdam. In those areas, dredging takes place to guarantee a minimum depth. The results reveal a difference in sand wave migration between the two regions, over the past two decades. The dominant wavelengths of the sand waves vary within the regions, but we find a similar wavelength distribution for the two regions. We compare our results to earlier studies of the same sand wave areas in the Rotterdam region, showing similar migration rates, but different wavelengths. It is concluded, based on sand wave dynamics alone, that the Amsterdam region should be assigned a higher resurvey frequency than the Rotterdam region.     

Results of a 36-hour storm surge prediction of the North Sea for 3 January 1976 on the basis of numerical models

Summary To explore the feasibility of forescasting North Sea storm surges by integrating numerically a combined atmospheric-oceanographic physical model, the severe storm and the resulting water levels occurring on 3 January 1976 were simulated as a first step into this direction. For this purpose, the atmospheric model was run with a resolution of 8 levels in the vertical and a horizontal grid spacing of 1.4° in latitude and 2.8° in longitude on the hemisphere. The initial conditions are based upon observations of 2 January 1976, 12 GMT, i.e. about 24 hours before the storm reached its greatest intensity in the southern parts of the North Sea.The surface wind predicted by the atmospheric model was converted into stress values through a bulk formula which then entered the vertically integrated North Sea model, to yield the desired water elevations in a 22 km-grid. Moreover, also the observed wind, stemming from a careful re-analysis of the storm situation, was handled in the same way. The numerically obtained results were compared with gauge measurements at a number of coastal stations.

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Ergebnisse einer 36stündigen Vorhersage der Nordsee-Sturmflut am 3. Januar 1976 aufgrund von numerischen Modellen

Zusammenfassung Zur Untersuchung der Möglichkeiten, Sturmfluten mit physikalischen Modellen der Atmosphäre und der Nordsee vorherzusagen, wurde als erster Schritt in dieser Richtung die schwere Sturmflut an der deutschen Nordseeküste vom 3. Januar 1976 nachgerechnet. Hierzu wurde das im Sonderforschungsbereich 94 entwickelte Atmosphärenmodell auf der Grundlage der hydro- und thermodynamischen Gleichungen mit einer Auflösung von 8 Flächen in der Vertikalen sowie 1,4° in der geographischen Breite und 2,8° in der geographischen Länge auf der gesamten Nordhalbkugel über 36 Stunden numerisch integriert. Als Eingangsdaten dienten die Beobachtungen vom 2. Januar 1976, 12 Uhr. dieser Termin liegt ca. 24 Stunden vor Eintritt des stärksten Sturmes im Bereich der Deutschen Bucht.Die auf diese Weise prognostizierte Windverteilung wurde über der Nordsee in Schubspannungswerte überführt, woraus das Nordseemodell mit den hydrodynamischen Gleichungen die Wasserstandswerte in einem 22-km-Netz berechnete. In entsprechender Weise wurde mit einem aus Beobachtungen während dieses Zeitraums gewonnenen Windfeld verfahren; diesem lag eine besonders sorgfältige, nachträglich angefertigte Analyse des Seewetteramts Hamburg zugrunde. Die so errechneten Wasserstände sind dann mit Pegelmessungen verglichen worden.

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Résultats d'une prédiction d'onde de tempête de 36 heures de la mer du Nord pour le 3 janvier 1976 sur la base de modèles numériques

Résumé Afin d'étudier la possibilité de prévior les ondes de tempête en mer du Nord en intégrant numériquement un modèle physique combiné atmosphère-océan, la forte tempête du 3 janvier 1976 et des niveaux d'eau qui en ont résulté ont été simulés comme premier pas dans cette voie. Dans ce but, on a fait fonctionner le modèle atmosphérique avec une résolution de 8 niveaux dans le plan vertical et un réseau horizontal aux pas de 1,4° en latitude et de 2,8° en longitude sur l'hémisphère. Les conditions initiales sont basées sur les observations du 2 janvier 1976 à 12h GMT, c'est-à-dire environ 24 heures avant que la tempête n'atteignît sa plus forte intensité dans les parties méridionales de la mer du Nord.Le vent en surface prédit par le modèle atmosphérique était converti par l'intermédiaire d'une formule globale en valeurs de tensions qui étaient alors introduites dans le modèle de la mer du Nord intégré verticalement, pour obtenir les hauteurs d'eau désirées, dans un réseau de 22 km de côté. En outre, le vent observé, issu d'une nouvelle analyse soignée de la situation de tempête, était aussi traité de la même manière. Les résultats obtenus numériquement furent comparés aux mesures fournies par les marégraphes en un certain nombre de stations côtières.

     

Climate change and North Sea storm surge extremes: an ensemble study of storm surge extremes expected in a changed climate projected by four different regional climate models

The coastal zones are facing the prospect of changing storm surge statistics due to anthropogenic climate change. In the present study, we examine these prospects for the North Sea based on numerical modelling. The main tool is the barotropic tide-surge model TRIMGEO (Tidal Residual and Intertidal Mudflat Model) to derive storm surge climate and extremes from atmospheric conditions. The analysis is carried out by using an ensemble of four 30-year atmospheric regional simulations under present-day and possible future-enhanced greenhouse gas conditions. The atmospheric regional simulations were prepared within the EU project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). The research strategy of PRUDENCE is to compare simulations of different regional models driven by the same global control and climate change simulations. These global conditions, representative for 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 were prepared by the Hadley Center based on the IPCC A2 SRES scenario. The results suggest that under future climatic conditions, storm surge extremes may increase along the North Sea coast towards the end of this century. Based on a comparison between the results of the different ensemble members as well as on the variability estimated from a high-resolution storm surge reconstruction of the recent decades it is found that this increase is significantly different from zero at the 95% confidence level for most of the North Sea coast. An exception represents the East coast of the UK which is not affected by this increase of storm surge extremes.