Interaction impacts of tides,waves and winds on storm surge in a channel-island system: observational and numerical study in Yangshan Harbor

Ocean Dynamics - The Yangshan Deep-Water Harbor (YDH) consists of a northern island chain and a southern island chain, with a deep channel between these two chains. It is frequently impacted by...     

Results of a 36-hour storm surge prediction of the North Sea for 3 January 1976 on the basis of numerical models

Summary To explore the feasibility of forescasting North Sea storm surges by integrating numerically a combined atmospheric-oceanographic physical model, the severe storm and the resulting water levels occurring on 3 January 1976 were simulated as a first step into this direction. For this purpose, the atmospheric model was run with a resolution of 8 levels in the vertical and a horizontal grid spacing of 1.4° in latitude and 2.8° in longitude on the hemisphere. The initial conditions are based upon observations of 2 January 1976, 12 GMT, i.e. about 24 hours before the storm reached its greatest intensity in the southern parts of the North Sea.The surface wind predicted by the atmospheric model was converted into stress values through a bulk formula which then entered the vertically integrated North Sea model, to yield the desired water elevations in a 22 km-grid. Moreover, also the observed wind, stemming from a careful re-analysis of the storm situation, was handled in the same way. The numerically obtained results were compared with gauge measurements at a number of coastal stations.

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Ergebnisse einer 36stündigen Vorhersage der Nordsee-Sturmflut am 3. Januar 1976 aufgrund von numerischen Modellen

Zusammenfassung Zur Untersuchung der Möglichkeiten, Sturmfluten mit physikalischen Modellen der Atmosphäre und der Nordsee vorherzusagen, wurde als erster Schritt in dieser Richtung die schwere Sturmflut an der deutschen Nordseeküste vom 3. Januar 1976 nachgerechnet. Hierzu wurde das im Sonderforschungsbereich 94 entwickelte Atmosphärenmodell auf der Grundlage der hydro- und thermodynamischen Gleichungen mit einer Auflösung von 8 Flächen in der Vertikalen sowie 1,4° in der geographischen Breite und 2,8° in der geographischen Länge auf der gesamten Nordhalbkugel über 36 Stunden numerisch integriert. Als Eingangsdaten dienten die Beobachtungen vom 2. Januar 1976, 12 Uhr. dieser Termin liegt ca. 24 Stunden vor Eintritt des stärksten Sturmes im Bereich der Deutschen Bucht.Die auf diese Weise prognostizierte Windverteilung wurde über der Nordsee in Schubspannungswerte überführt, woraus das Nordseemodell mit den hydrodynamischen Gleichungen die Wasserstandswerte in einem 22-km-Netz berechnete. In entsprechender Weise wurde mit einem aus Beobachtungen während dieses Zeitraums gewonnenen Windfeld verfahren; diesem lag eine besonders sorgfältige, nachträglich angefertigte Analyse des Seewetteramts Hamburg zugrunde. Die so errechneten Wasserstände sind dann mit Pegelmessungen verglichen worden.

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Résultats d'une prédiction d'onde de tempête de 36 heures de la mer du Nord pour le 3 janvier 1976 sur la base de modèles numériques

Résumé Afin d'étudier la possibilité de prévior les ondes de tempête en mer du Nord en intégrant numériquement un modèle physique combiné atmosphère-océan, la forte tempête du 3 janvier 1976 et des niveaux d'eau qui en ont résulté ont été simulés comme premier pas dans cette voie. Dans ce but, on a fait fonctionner le modèle atmosphérique avec une résolution de 8 niveaux dans le plan vertical et un réseau horizontal aux pas de 1,4° en latitude et de 2,8° en longitude sur l'hémisphère. Les conditions initiales sont basées sur les observations du 2 janvier 1976 à 12h GMT, c'est-à-dire environ 24 heures avant que la tempête n'atteignît sa plus forte intensité dans les parties méridionales de la mer du Nord.Le vent en surface prédit par le modèle atmosphérique était converti par l'intermédiaire d'une formule globale en valeurs de tensions qui étaient alors introduites dans le modèle de la mer du Nord intégré verticalement, pour obtenir les hauteurs d'eau désirées, dans un réseau de 22 km de côté. En outre, le vent observé, issu d'une nouvelle analyse soignée de la situation de tempête, était aussi traité de la même manière. Les résultats obtenus numériquement furent comparés aux mesures fournies par les marégraphes en un certain nombre de stations côtières.

     

Comparison of storm surge/tide predictions between a 2-D operational forecast system, the regional tide/storm surge model (RTSM), and the 3-D regional ocean modeling system (ROMS)

In this study, we compare simulated storm surges run on the two-dimensional operational storm surge/tide forecast system (regional tide/storm surge model (RTSM), based on Princeton ocean model) of the Korean Meteorological Administration and the three-dimensional regional ocean modeling system (ROMS), using observational data from 30 coastal tidal stations of three typhoons that struck Korea in 2007. A maximum positive bias of 6.8 cm was found for Typhoon Manyi predicted by ROMS, while a maximum negative bias of −7.4 cm was shown for Typhoon Nari predicted by RTSM. For all three typhoons, the total averaged root mean square error was 10 cm for the two models. Although the statistical results for the storm surge comparison between the observations and RTSM predictions were better than those for ROMS, with the exception of Typhoon Nari, the spatial and temporal variations of ROMS were larger than those of RTSM.     

Radar chain study of the May, 1995 storm

We summarize the main features of the ionospheric F region as observed bythe Sondrestrom, Millstone Hill, Arecibo, and Jicamarca incoherent scatter radars during the 1–5May, 1995 CEDAR Storm Study interval. This paper apparently represents the first study of amajor storm interval using the current incoherent scatter radar chain supported by the U.S.National Science Foundation. We focus most attention on 2–3 May, and include additional datafrom IMP-8, the St. Johns magnetometer, SuperDARN, and global total electron content (TEC)maps from GPS. Three intervals of likely penetration of magnetospheric electric field from high tolow latitude are identified on 2 May. A unique feature of this storm are the strong daytimeequatorward wind surges in the neutral meridional wind observed at Millstone Hill. The first ofthese (at 14 UT on 2 May) is apparently due to a travelling atmospheric disturbance launched byintense frictional and Joule heating as observed at Sondrestrom. An evening enhancement in NmF₂ (the dusk effect) is typically seen only on the first day of a geomagneticstorm. However, during this storm a strong dusk effect is seen at Millstone Hill on 2, 3, and 4May, associated with the equatorward wind surges. A penetrating eastward electric field alsocontributed to the dusk effect on 2 May. A large rise in hmF₂ at Arecibo near0000 UT on 3 May is due to the same eastward electric field, which penetrates to the equator,causing a strong upward plasma drift at Jicamarca. This apparently results in a polewardexpansion of the equatorial anomaly zones as seen in GPS total electron content, and an increasein NmF₂ at Arecibo to the largest value seen at midnight in several years.     

广东佛山EF3级龙卷超级单体风暴高分辨率数值模拟

本文对2015年10月4日发生于广东佛山地区台风"彩虹"登陆后螺旋云带中的一次强龙卷风过程进行高分辨率（148 m,48 m）数值模拟,结果产生了类龙卷涡旋（Tornado-Like Vortex,TLV）,最接近观测到的龙卷风,并对龙卷超级单体及产生龙卷的TLV系统的三维动热力精细化结构进行诊断分析.结果表明,此次龙卷产生于超级单体右侧边缘,钩状回波显著,伴有明显的中气旋活动.模拟的龙卷超级单体与之前观测研究和理想化建模的龙卷超级单体结构相类似,超级单体后部云墙之下低层水成物呈现狭窄的触地漏斗状结构,对应低层的TLV系统;TLV具有中心气流下沉和周围气流上升的动力结构,对应上宽下窄的强烈涡管.与之前的研究相比,本次台风螺旋云带中的超级单体中后部入流较弱,出流较强,其前部气流上升存在水合物聚集.相对螺旋度（Storm Relative Helicity,SRH）的分析表明,超级单体的发展伴随正负SRH的增大,龙卷发生在SRH正负高值区的交界处.     

全新世初期气候的数值模拟研究

本文尝试用一个完全耦合的大气-海洋-植被模式(Atmosphere-Ocean-Vegetation General Circulation Model, AOVGCM)模拟全新世初期的地球气候.模拟结果表明,耦合模式成功地再现了全新世初期复杂气候条件下的基本特征,为研究这一时期的气候状况提供了重要的模型支持.就全球平均而言,11ka BP冬季地表气温比现代约低1.6 K,夏季比现代低约0.3 K;大气温度从低层到高层有不同的表现,高层反映了太阳辐射的重要作用,而低层气候对下垫面（如冰川、植被和海洋等）的影响比较敏感.从区域分布来看,11 ka BP冬季大部地区比现在偏干,但热带太平洋和南半球少部地区降水偏多;夏季大部地区比现在偏湿,亚洲和非洲季风偏强,主要的季风区降水偏多.     

太湖水体的总磷分布及湖流对其影响的数值研究

用数值模拟的方法研究了太湖水体中ＴＰ分布特征及湖流对其影响,推导,建立了包括平流,水平扩散,沉降和底泥释放的浅水湖泊中污染物浓度分布计算的二维迎风有限元数值模式,并在给定若干点源条件下计算各种稳态流场下太湖水体中的ＴＰ分布。     

A study on the impact of climate change on streamflow at the watershed scale in the humid tropics

Abstract

Climate change is recognized to be one of the most serious challenges facing mankind today. Driven by anthropogenic activities, it is known to be a direct threat to our food and water supplies and an indirect threat to world security. Increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will certainly affect hydrological regimes. The consequent global warming is expected to have major implications on water resources management. The objective of this research is to present a general approach for evaluating the impacts of potential climate change on streamflow in a river basin in the humid tropical zone of India. Large-scale global climate models (GCMs) are the best available tools to provide estimates of the effect of rising greenhouse gases on rainfall and temperature. However the spatial resolution of these models (250 km?×?250 km) is not compatible with that of watershed hydrological models. Hence the outputs from GCMs have to be downscaled using regional climate models (RCMs), so as to project the output of a GCM to a finer resolution (50 km?×?50 km). In the present work, the projections of a GCM for two scenarios, A2 and B2 are downscaled by a RCM to project future climate in a watershed. Projections for two important climate variables, viz. rainfall and temperature are made. These are then used as inputs for a physically-based hydrological model, SWAT, in order to evaluate the effect of climate change on streamflow and vegetative growth in a humid tropical watershed.

Citation Raneesh, K. Y. & Santosh, G. T. (2011) A study on the impact of climate change on streamflow at the watershed scale in the humid tropics. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 946–965.     

On the impact of wind on the development of wave field during storm Britta

The observation of extreme waves at FINO 1 during storm Britta on the 1st November 2006 has initiated a series of research studies regarding the mechanisms behind. The roles of stability and the presence of the open cell structures have been previously investigated but not conclusive. To improve our understanding of these processes, which are essential for a good forecast of similarly important events offshore, this study revisits the development of storm Britta using an atmospheric and wave coupled modeling system, wind and wave measurements from ten stations across the North Sea, cloud images and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. It is found here that a standard state-of-the-art model is capable of capturing the important characteristics of a major storm like Britta, including the storm path, storm peak wind speed, the open cells, and peak significant wave height (H _s ) for open sea. It was also demonstrated that the impact of the open cells has negligible contribution to the development of extreme H _s observed at FINO 1. At the same time, stability alone is not sufficient in explaining the development of extreme H _s . The controlling conditions for the development of Britta extreme H _s observed at FINO 1 are the persistent strong winds and a long and undisturbed fetch over a long period.     

A numerical study on the basin edge effect on soil amplification

In this paper a numerical study on the effects of the basin edge on the dynamic behavior of the model basins are investigated. For this purpose a range of bedrock inclinations at the valley sides from slighter $10^{\circ }$ and $20^{\circ }$ to steeper $30^{\circ }$ and $40^{\circ }$ are selected. A numerical study using nonlinear code which utilizes appropriate static and dynamic boundary conditions, and includes hysteresis damping formulation based on user defined degradation curves is conducted utilizing two sandy and clayey materials. Using several different real earthquake motions provide opportunity for the assessment of the site response to the variation of the motion intensity. The analyses results are presented in the form of the acceleration and spectral acceleration amplification curves. Also, by conducting 1D analyses along the valley the aggravation curve for every case are evaluated and discussed. It was seen that variation of the bedrock inclination not only affects the peaks of the spectral amplification curves, but also the position of the maximums of the curves on the valley surface are changed. Also, the frequency domain results show that different parts of the valleys are sensitive to different periods. While the lateral parts are sensitive to lower periods, the maximum amplification of the inner parts takes place at higher periods. Based on results the 2D behavior not only is dominant at the latreal parts of the valley, but also affects the behavior of the inner parts. Also, the use of the 1D analyes for the estimation of the 2D behavior remains insufficient. Finally, the results of this research show the important effect of the motion intensity on the 2D behavior of the valley specially on the increase of the resonance period at higher period.     

Automated facies identification by Direct Push-based sensing methods (CPT,HPT) and multivariate linear discriminant analysis to decipher geomorphological changes and storm surge impact on a medieval coastal landscape

In ad 1362, a major storm surge drowned wide areas of cultivated medieval marshland along the north-western coast of Germany and turned them into tidal flats. This study presents a new methodological approach for the reconstruction of changing coastal landscapes developed from a study site in the Wadden Sea of North Frisia. Initially, we deciphered long-term as well as event-related short-term geomorphological changes, using a geoscientific standard approach of vibracoring, analyses of sedimentary, geochemical and microfaunal palaeoenvironmental parameters and radiocarbon dating. In a next step, Direct Push (DP)-based Cone Penetration Testing (CPT) and the Hydraulic Profiling Tool (HPT) were applied at vibracore locations to obtain in situ high-resolution stratigraphic data. In a last step, multivariate linear discriminant analysis (LDA) was successfully applied to efficiently identify different sedimentary facies (e.g., fossil marsh or tidal flat deposits) from the CPT and HPT test dataset, to map the facies' lateral distribution, also in comparison to reflection seismic measurements and test their potential to interpolate the borehole and CPT/HPT data. The training dataset acquired for the key site from coring and DP sensing finally allows an automated facies classification of CPT/HPT data obtained elsewhere within the study area. The new methodological approach allowed a detailed reconstruction of the local coastal landscape development in the interplay of natural marsh formation, medieval land reclamation and storm surge-related land losses.     

A numerical study on the influence of geometry on the formation of sandbanks

Applying a two-dimensional, non-linear hydrodynamic numerical model in combination with a semiempirical equation for bedload sediment transport, the influence of geometry on the formation of sandbanks is investigated. In the first experiment, the formation of sandbanks in an ideal rectangular basin, resembling the Taylor’s problem, was calculated. Sandbanks occur in a small area at the closed boundary. Similar experiments were carried out for a range of wavelengths of the incident Kelvin wave. The results reveal that large wavelengths favor the generation of sandbanks. In subsequent calculations, the basin was modified by introducing new geographical features like bays and peninsulas. The numerical experiments show that geometry is a fundamental factor to determine the position where groups of sandbanks appear. The results suggest that in regions where the Kelvin wave is diffracted, the formation of sandbanks occurs. An experiment, in which we applied an ideal geometric configuration representing that of the Southern Bight of the North Sea, generated sandbank patterns resembling those observed in the region.     

A comparison between experimental and numerical investigations of the motion of the water surface in a model surge tank

This paper describes an investigation into the motion of the water surface in a simple model surge tank, and the relevant factors governing its behaviour. The oscillation of the free water surface is an unsteady flow problem, which is amenable to a mathematical solution using a finite difference step-by-step integration procedure. For comparison, two such methods are presented: (i) a simple initial value method and (ii) a predictor-corrector technique. Computer programs have been developed linked to a graph plotter to give a visual presentation of the numerical solutions together with the experimental results of the damped oscillation of the water surface in the model surge tank.     

A numerical study on the 2D behavior of clayey basins

In this numerical study the effects of basin edge on the dynamic behavior of the clayey basins are investigated. For this purpose a range of bedrock inclinations at the valley sides from slighter 10° and 20° to steeper 30° and 40°, and three types of stiff, medium plasticity and soft clay materials are selected. The results of the 2D analyses show that not only the amplification pattern of different clay types is different, but also it differs for each material type under different motion intensities. Also, the frequency domain results show that different parts of the valleys are sensitive to different periods. It was seen that under two-dimensional conditions the amplification of clay types other than soft clay could be higher. Finally, the results of this research show the important effect of motion intensity on the 2D behavior of valleys.