Anomalous crustal strain prior to the 1923 Kanto,Japan, earthquake as deduced from analysis of old triangulation data

Horizontal earth's strains preceding the Kanto, Japan, earthquake of 1, September 1923, are deduced from the analysis of the old triangulation data. The anomalous strains that are several times larger than usual tectonic strain are found in the western part of Tokyo Bay, Sagamihara district, Japan for the observational period 1882/91–1898/1910, while any significant strain is not revealed in the other region of the Kanto district. The Kanto district was surveyed twice during the period 1883/85–1890/92 in the west and during the period 1890/92–1897/99 in the east respectively. The polarity of the detected anomalous strains, the directions and the signs of the principal strains, are quite the same as those of the postseismic crustal strains during the period 1924–74, and are reversed as compared to the coseismic one.The Philippine Sea plate thrusts under the South Kanto district with N25°W direction and pulls down the land during the interseismic period. The aseismic reverse faulting would begin several decades before the 1923 Kanto earthquake along the deep interface between the Asian plate and the convergent Philippine Sea plate. The down-going along the locked part of the interface would be accelerated, thus the compressional stress on the earth's surface might be concentrated over the deep fault plane together with the acceleration of the subsidence at the tip of the peninsula close to the Sagami trough.     

A sequence of seismic activity in the Kanto area precursory to the 1923 Kanto earthquake

The Kanto earthquake (M=7.9) that occurred along the Sagami Trough in the Sagami Bay on 1 September 1923 was one of the most disastrous earthquakes in Japanese history. The Kanto area includes Metropolitan Tokyo and Yokohama which are densely populated, and hence it has been a matter of great concern, from the viewpoints of earthquake prediction and disaster prevention, whether or not the 1923 Kanto earthquake was preceded by precursory seismicity. A study using the most complete lists of earthquakes catalogued recently by Utsu and the Japan Meteorological Agency reveals that seismic activity in the Kanto area was appreciably higher before and after the Kanto earthquake, and that the Kanto earthquake was preceded by a sequence of anomalous seismic activity, quiescence, and foreshocks. Such higher activity before and after the Kanto earthquake is contrasted with low seismicity during the recent 30-year period. A model is proposed to explain the precursory seismic activity, subsequent quiescence, and foreshocks for the Kanto earthquake. In the model, the transition from precursory seismic activity to quiescence is ascribed to time-dependent fracture due to stress-aided corrosion. Foreshocks are related to an acceleration of premonitory slip shortly before the mainshock slip.     

Interplate Coupling in the Kanto District, Central Japan, and the Boso Peninsula Silent Earthquake in May 1996

— I studied crustal deformation in the Kanto district, central Japan, based on continuous GPS data. Horizontal as well as vertical displacement rate demonstrate significant interaction between the landward Kanto block and the Philippine Sea plate. Although the subduction effect of the Pacific plate is not apparent, it is reasonable to consider the entire Kanto district is displaced westward due to the interaction with the Pacific plate. The GPS velocity data were inverted to estimate the slip deficit distribution on the Sagami Trough subduction zone. The result delineates a strongly coupled region on the plate interface, part of which corresponds to the 1923 Kanto earthquake. The strongly coupled region is located shallower than 20 km. In addition, the plate interaction is laterally heterogeneous even in the same depth range, implying thermal structure is not the only factor controlling interplate coupling. The GPS data also detected a silent earthquake event on the interface of the Philippine Sea slab east of the Boso Peninsula in the middle of May, 1996. The silent rupture propagated over a 50 km * 50 km wide area during about a week. The maximum slip was approximately 50 mm and the released seismic moment was 4.7*10¹⁸Nm (M _w 6.4). There was a small seismicity triggered by this silent event. The silent slip was located in the peripheral of the strongly coupled area, suggesting that frictional properties and/or stress conditions are inhomogeneous on the plate boundary interface.     

Broadband Ground Motion Reconstruction for the Kanto Basin during the 1923 Kanto Earthquake

Ground motions of the 1923 Kanto Earthquake inside the Kanto Basin are numerically simulated in a wide frequency range (0?C10?Hz) based on new knowledge of the earthquake??s source processes, the sedimentary structure of the basin, and techniques for generating broadband source models of great earthquakes. The Kanto Earthquake remains one of the most important exemplars for ground motion prediction in Japan due to its size, faulting geometry, and location beneath the densely populated Kanto sedimentary basin. We reconstruct a broadband source model of the 1923 Kanto Earthquake from inversion results by introducing small-scale heterogeneities. The corresponding ground motions are simulated using a hybrid technique comprising the following four calculations: (1) low-frequency ground motion of the engineering basement, modeled using a finite difference method; (2) high-frequency ground motion of the engineering basement, modeled using a stochastic Green??s function method; (3) total ground motion of the engineering basement (i.e. 1?+?2); and (4) ground motion at the surface in response to the total basement ground motion. We employ a recently developed three-dimensional (3D) velocity structure model of the Kanto Basin that incorporates prospecting data, microtremor observations and measurements derived from strong ground motion records. Our calculations reveal peak ground velocities (PGV) exceeding 50?cm/s in the area above the fault plane: to the south, where the fault plane is shallowest, PGV reaches 150?C200?cm/s at the engineering basement and 200?C250?cm/s at the surface. Intensity 7, the maximum value in the Japan Meteorological Agency??s intensity scale, is calculated to have occurred widely in Sagami Bay, which corresponds well with observed house-collapse rates due to the 1923 event. The modeling reveals a pronounced forward directivity effect for the area lying above the southern, shallow part of the fault plane. The high PGV and intensity seen above the southeastern corner of the fault plane and further east are largely due to this effect. Waveforms above the fault plane contain both short- and long-period components, but the short-period components are not observed further afield. Away from the fault, long-period waves (>2?s) dominate the ground motion, and in areas where the base of the third layer is relatively deep, the predominant period is >5?s. Levels of long-period ground motion in the southern part of the study area, around Sagami Bay and the southern parts of Boso Peninsula and Tokyo Bay, exceed that recorded at Tomakomai during the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, when large oil storage tanks collapsed in response to sloshing generated by strong long-period motions.     

新丰江水库库区形变测量与地震活动关系探讨

广东省新丰江水库地区1962年3月19日发生 Ms=6.1的地震.地震前后,库坝区分别布设了水准测量网和三角测量网.形变测量具有精度高、测期密的特点.本文通过对不动点的处理,得出新的形变场并讨论了它的特点;根据各相邻期的三角测量结果计算了各三角形的主应变;依据地震时的应变对一次5.3级的地震的发震断层作了反演.结果表明,地壳水平形变与新丰江水库地区4级以上地震有明显的关系,垂直形变与这些地震无明显关系.      

Two categories of earthquake precursors,physical and tectonic,and their roles in intermediate-term earthquake prediction

I suggest that earthquake precursors can be divided into two major categories, physical and tectonic. I define physical precursor to be a direct or indirect indication of initiation or progression of an irreversible rupture-generating physical process within the preparation zone of a forthcoming earthquake. Tectonic precursor is defined as a manifestation of tectonic movement which takes place outside the preparation zone of an impending earthquake as a link in a chain of particular local tectonism in each individual area preceding the earthquake.Most intermediate-term, short-term and immediate precursors of various disciplines within the source regions of main shocks are considered physical ones. Some precursory crustal deformations around the source regions are, however, possibly tectonic precursors, because they may be caused by episodic plate motions or resultant block movements in the neighboring regions of the fault segments that will break. A possible example of this phenomena is the anomalous crustal uplift in the Izu Peninsula, Japan, before the 1978 Izu-Oshima earthquake ofM _s 6.8. Some precursory changes in seismicity patterns in wide areas surrounding source regions also seem to be tectonic precursors, because they were probably caused by the particular tectonic setting of each region. A typical example is a so-called doughnut pattern before the 1923 Kanto, Japan, earthquake ofM _s 8.2.Although most studies on earthquake precursors so far seem to regard implicitly all precursory phenomena observed as physical ones, the two categories should be distinguished carefully when statistical analysis or physical modeling is carried out based on reported precursory phenomena. In active plate boundary zones, where a practical strategy for earthquake prediction may well be different from that in intraplate regions, tectonic precursors can be powerful additional tools for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.     

Characteristics of horizontal crustal deformation in Japan as deduced from frequency distribution of maximum shear strain rate

In order to study characteristics of horizontal crustal strains, we divide the Japanese Islands into 14 tectonic provinces consistent with the suggestion given byMatsuda (1990). We calculate frequency distribution of strain rates using the results of the Precise Control Survey initiated by the Geographical Survey Institute in 1973. This survey is a revision of old first- and second-order triangulation networks by trilateration. The principal axes and principal strains inside all the geodetic triangles are deduced from the comparison of the old triangulation and the new trilateration networks. The maximum shear strain rates are calculated by dividing the accumulated strains with the time intervals. The frequency distribution of strain rates is counted for each tectonic province and for the entire Japanese Islands. It is proved that the maximum shear strain rate with highest frequency ranges from 0.10–0.15 microstrain/a for 4409 data in the Japanese Islands. The mean value of the strain rates throughout the Japanese Islands is deduced to be 0.18 microstrain/a. We also calculated a mean value of strain rates for each tectonic province. Comparison is made between mean geodetic strain rates in the provinces and Quaternary strain rates estimated by geomorphic data. It is found that 0.3–0.4 microstrain/a of the highest order strain rate is now prevailing in the Izu province, the south Fossa-Magna collision zone, and some special provinces along the eastern part of the Japan Sea coast.     

GPS观测得到的大地震前兆地壳形变震例

综合介绍2008年汶川大地震以来,GPS观测得到的国内外10多次6—9级,不同构造、不同类型的大地震前兆地壳形变震例:2008年汶川8级大地震、2011年东日本9级巨震、2013年芦山7级,直至2020年6月墨西哥7.4级地震和7月美国阿拉斯加州以南海域7.8级地震等。利用GPS连续观测站区域参考框架水平位移时间序列和水平位移场,特别是水平位移向量时间序列的研究证明,同震水平位移是研究地震前兆形变存在的关键;利用垂直位移和水平位移向量时间序列、同震垂直位移及同震水平位移向量的分解,揭示地震弹性回跳真实方式;提出了符合GPS观测和岩石破裂试验结果的地震压-剪弹性回跳模型;根据已有震例,提出预报不同震级地震的可能性和监测临震前兆形变的GNSS站布设设想。      

Normal and shear stresses acting on arbitrarily oriented faults, earthquake energy, crustal GPE change, and the coefficient of friction

As usual, earthquake energy is defined as the total energy released from an earthquake, which is partitioned into radiated energy, friction energy, and rupture energy regardless of crustal gravitational potential energy (GPE) change. We analyze the energy and stress parameters in earthquake energy budget. For arbitrarily oriented faults, we deduce the formulas for calculating the normal and shear stresses acting on the fault under principal stresses. We show that shear stress is composed of horizontal and vertical shear stresses. Then, we provide the expressions for computing crustal GPE change and the coefficient of friction. The GPE change should be considered, except strike-slip faulting, when investigating earthquakes. Also, for various faulting types, we show that the ratio of differential stresses is related to the fault orientation and the relative magnitudes of stresses. Finally, “12 May, 2008, Wenchuan, Sichuan, China, M_W 7.9 Earthquake” is cited to analyze and calculate various energy/stress parameters and the coefficient of friction. Our result of GPE change coincides with the post-event field observations.     

Pore fluid pressure effects in anisotropic rocks: Mechanisms of induced seismicity and weak faults

Many observations and studies indicate that pore fluid pressure in the crustal rocks plays an important role in deformation, faulting, and earthquake processes. Conventional models of pore pressure effects often assume isotropic porous rocks and yield the nondeviatoric pressure effects which seem insufficient to explain diverse phenomena related to pore pressure variation, such as fluid-extraction induced seismicity and crustal weak faults. We derive the anisotropic effective stress law especially for transversely-isotropic and orthotropic rocks, and propose that the deviatoric effects of pore fluid pressure in anisotropic rocks not only affect rock effective strength but also cause variation of shear stresses. Such shear stress variations induced by either pore pressure buildup or pore pressure decline may lead to faulting instability and trigger earthquakes, and provide mechanisms for the failure of crustal weak faults with low level of shear stresses. We believe that the deviatoric effects of pore fluid pressure in anisotropic rocks are of wide application in studies of earthquake precursors and aftershocks, oil and gas reservoir characterization, enhanced oil recovery, and hydraulic fracturing.     

Tectonic deformation buildup in folded mountain terrains in the October 23, 2004, Mid-Niigata earthquake

The October 23, 2004, Mid-Niigata Earthquake jolted central Japan, causing serious damage in a mountainous region of Pliocene sedimentary rocks. Though aftershocks distribution showed a diffused pattern, it indicated that a blind-thrust fault having a NE–SW strike and inclined towards NW was the most causative. Tectonic deformation caused by this faulting was considered to be one of the causes of flooding that occurred about 8 months after the earthquake. Precise digital elevation models (DEMs) before and after the earthquake were obtained with stereoscopy for aerial photographs and laser imaging detection and ranging technology (LIDAR), respectively, and then compared to detect elevation changes and translations. Lastly, the changes of landforms due to landslides are excluded from the estimated deformations to obtain only the components of tectonic deformations of the ground surface.     

Mapping three-dimensional co-seismic surface deformations associated with the 2015 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>W</Subscript>7.2 Murghab earthquake based on InSAR and characteristics of crustal strain

Three-dimensional (3D) co-seismic surface deformations are of great importance to interpret the characteristics of coseismic deformations and to understand the geometries and dynamics of seismogenic faults. In this paper, we propose a method for mapping 3D co-seismic deformations based on InSAR observations and crustal strain characteristics. In addition, the search strategy of correlation points is optimized by adaptive correlation distance, which greatly improves the applicability of the proposed method in restoring deformations in decorrelation areas. Results of the simulation experiment reveal that the proposed method is superior to conventional methods in both the accuracy and completeness. The proposed method is then applied to map the 3D co-seismic surface deformations associated with the 2015 M_W7.2 Murghab earthquake using ascending and descending ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 images. The results show that the seismogenic fault is the Sarez-Karakul fault (SKF), which is dominated by NE-SW strike slips with an almost vertical dip angle. The north section and the south segment near the epicentre have obvious subsidence along with a southwestward motion in the northwest wall, and the southeast wall has northeast movement and surface uplift trend along the fault zone. The strain field of the earthquake is also obtained by the proposed method. It is found that the crustal block of the seismic area is obviously affected by dilatation and shear forces, which is in good agreement with the movement character of the sinistral slip.     

鲁中、南应变场和地壳的最新运动

本文通过对两期二等三角网测量结果的计算,分析了沂沭裂谷附近-鲁中鲁南的应变状态,力学性质和最近二十年来地壳的水平运动.结果是:(1)该区水平应变场的平均参数为:主压应变轴是 N51E;最大剪应变的方向为 N6E 和 N84W;从而得出该区应变场的力学模型;(2)该区地壳水平形变的特征是:以灌云-临沂-曲阜为转换带的典型左旋图象.从而讨论了鲁中、南未来可能发震的危险部位.      

Comprehensive study on stability of deep crust and unstable behavior of earthquake source by both failure mechanism and frictional sliding mechanism

In this paper the relation between fault movement and stress state in deep crust is discussed, based on synthetic analysis of the crustal stresses measured over the world and the concerned data of focal mechanism. Using Coulomb criterion for shear failure and frictional slip, analytical expressions for estimating stabilities of intact rock and existing fault in the crust and for identifying the type of faulting (normal, strike-slip or thrust fault) are derived. By defining the Failure FunctionF _m and the Fraction FunctionF _f, which may describe steadiness of crustal rock and existing fault, respectively, a synthetic model is set up to consider both fracturing mechanism and the sliding mechanism. By this model, a method to study stability and unstable behavior of crustal rock and fault at different depths is given. According to the above model, quantitative study on the crustal stability in the North China plain is made in terms of the measured data of hydraulic fracturing stress, pore-fluid pressure, terrestrical heat flow in this region. The functionsF _m andF _f and the shear stresses on faults with different strike angle and dip angle at various depths in this region are calculated. In the calculation the constraint condition of fault movement obeys Byerlee’s Law, and the depth-dependent nonlinear change in the vertical stress due to inhomogeneity of crustal density and the high anomalous pore-fluid pressure in deep crust of this region are considered. The conclusions are: the unstable behavior of the crust in the North China plain is not failure of crustal rock but slip on existing fault; the depth range where stick-slip of fault may happen is about from 8 to 20 km or more; stability of steep fault is lower than that of gentle sloping fault; the shear stresses in the range where may occur stick-slip are nearly horizontal; the steep faults trending from NNE to NE in this region are liable to produce strong earthquakes, whose co-seismic faultings are, for the most part, right lateral slip; the change in pore-fluid pressure in depth remarkably affects the stability of the crust and the increase in pore-fluid pressure, therefore, would be an important factor exciting strong earthquake in this region. The above theoretical inferences are consistent with the data measured in this region. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologia Sinica,13, 450–461, 1991. This work is supported by Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.     

Combination of Precise Leveling and InSAR Data to Constrain Source Parameters of the Mw = 6.5, 26 December 2003 Bam Earthquake

We used new precise leveling data acquired 40 days after the Bam earthquake in combination with radar interferometry observations from both ascending and descending orbits to investigate static deformation associated with the 2003 Bam earthquake. We invert this geodetic data set to gain insight into the fault geometry and slip distribution of the rupture. The best-fitting dislocation model is a steeply east-dipping right-lateral strike-slip fault that has a size of 11 by 8 km and strikes N2°W. We find that such smooth geometry fits available geodetic data better than previously proposed models for this earthquake. Our distributed slip model indicates a maximum strike slip of 3 m occurring about 3 to 5 km deep. The slip magnitude and depth of faulting taper to the north, where the fault approaches the Bam city. Inclusion of crustal layering increases the amount of maximum slip inferred at depth by about 4%.     

Mapping three-dimensional co-seismic surface deformations associated with the 2015 M_W7.2 Murghab earthquake based on InSAR and characteristics of crustal strain

Three-dimensional(3 D) co-seismic surface deformations are of great importance to interpret the characteristics of coseismic deformations and to understand the geometries and dynamics of seismogenic faults. In this paper, we propose a method for mapping 3 D co-seismic deformations based on InSAR observations and crustal strain characteristics. In addition, the search strategy of correlation points is optimized by adaptive correlation distance, which greatly improves the applicability of the proposed method in restoring deformations in decorrelation areas. Results of the simulation experiment reveal that the proposed method is superior to conventional methods in both the accuracy and completeness. The proposed method is then applied to map the 3 D co-seismic surface deformations associated with the 2015 MW7.2 Murghab earthquake using ascending and descending ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 images. The results show that the seismogenic fault is the Sarez-Karakul fault(SKF), which is dominated by NE-SW strike slips with an almost vertical dip angle. The north section and the south segment near the epicentre have obvious subsidence along with a southwestward motion in the northwest wall, and the southeast wall has northeast movement and surface uplift trend along the fault zone. The strain field of the earthquake is also obtained by the proposed method. It is found that the crustal block of the seismic area is obviously affected by dilatation and shear forces, which is in good agreement with the movement character of the sinistral slip.     

Earthquake prediction studies in Japan

A long-term research program on earthquake prediction in Japan, officially launched in 1965, has made progress. Many of the developments achieved in recent years in various disciplines are outlined. Some of the important findings include: detection of land-deformation by intensified levelling and geodimeter surveys, empirical relations between the extent of a premonitory land-deformation and the magnitude and occurrence-time, and the growth and decay of earthquake swarms accompanied by occurrences of large-scale earthquakes. Operations research on selection of survey areas for levelling and the location of crustal deformation observatories has been made.To process data for earthquake predictions, three centers for different disciplines were set up: in the Geographical Survey Institute, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the Earthquake Research Institute (University of Tokyo). A newly established committee, called the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, which consists of about 30 specialists, analyzes the data flowing into these three channels. The committee issues a warning of earthquake danger, whenever possible.A tentative strategy for achieving earthquake prediction is proposed. An attempt is made to evaluate ratings of earthquake threats on the basis of probability theory.An anomalous land-deformation was found in the South Kanto district, an area south of Tokyo, in 1969. following the strategy, an intensive effort, called Operation South Kanto, aiming at a possible prediction of large earthquakes is now under way. Judging from the results of various earthquake prediction elements, the probability of having an earthquake of magnitude 7 or there-abouts within a period of about 10 yr can not be low if anomalous land-deformation is related to the probability of earthquake occurrence.     

地壳深部稳定性——震源体破裂机制和摩擦滑动机制的综合研究

本文通过地壳应力测量结果和地震资料的综合分析,对深部应力状态与断层运动的关系作了讨论:进而应用库仑准则,推导了三维应力作用下完整岩体和已有的任意空间方向断层面的失稳条件及其滑动方式的解析表达式.通过建立描述岩体和已有断层稳定性的两个函数————破裂函数 Fm 和摩擦函数 Ff,给出了应用破裂机制和摩擦滑动机制综合分析地壳稳定性和失稳性态的方法:根据这种分析方法并结合华北平原区的水压致裂应力测量资料,以及孔隙压力、大地热流等观测结果,定量研究了本区地壳的稳定问题,计算并图示了地壳内破裂函数沿深度的分布,以及各种走向和倾向断层面上的摩擦函数和剪应力分布;计算中以 Byerlee 定律作为断层运动的约束条件,并考虑了地壳密度纵向非均匀性导致的垂直应力沿深度的非线性增长以及深部超静水压力的异常孔隙压力作用.结果表明,华北平原区地壳失稳性态主要表现为已有断层的滑动;伴有高剪应力降的断层运动的深度范围在8至2.0多公里之间:陡断层稳定性低于缓断层,其运动方式以走滑为主;本区 NNE-NE 走向的陡断层是一组易震断层,其震时错动为右旋走滑;孔隙压力的增长对地壳稳定性有显著的影响;华北平原区深部高异常孔隙压力是地震活动的一种重要背景.      

Paleoseismic events and the 1596 Keicho-Fushimi large earthquake produced by a slip on the Gosukebashi fault at the eastern Rokko Mountains,Japan

Field surveys and trench excavation investigations revealed that there were at least four large seismic events produced by slips on the Gosukebashi fault in the Holocene in the southeastern Rokko Mountains of Japan. The characteristics of deformed topographies and three-dimensionally excavated exposures show that this fault is a right-lateral strike–slip fault having an average slip rate of 1.0 mm/year, with a reverse displacement component. The principle indicators of past faulting events are: (i) termination of secondary faults; (ii) sedimentary deposits related to faulting; and (iii) injection veins of fault gouge related to seismic faulting in the fractured zone. Radiocarbon dates indicate that the events occurred pre-1660 BC , 1660 BC –220 AD , from ～ 30–220 to 600 AD and 15th century AD . The youngest event is probably associated with the large 1596 AD Keicho-Fushimi earthquake which occurred in the area around Kyoto and Kobe Cities. The second younger event is probably correlated with the 416 AD Yamato earthquake, which is the oldest historic earthquake in Japanese historic records. The results of trench surveys show that the horizontal displacement produced by an individual event is ～ 1.5 m, and the recurrence of seismic event intervals is ～ 1200 years in the Gosukebashi fault.     

The relationship between earthquake swarms and magma transport: Kilauea volcano,Hawaii

A detailed investigation of earthquake locations and focal mechanisms for swarms associated with intrusive events at Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, further illuminates the relationships among stress state, faulting, and magma transport. We determine the earthquake locations and mechanisms using a three-dimensional crustal model to improve their accuracy and consistency. Swarms in Kilauea's upper east and southwest rift zones, from the years 1980 through 1982, provide clear evidence for the propagation and/or dilation of dikes. Focal mechanisms are predominantly strike-slip, and the faulting and inferred dike orientations can be interpreted quite consistently in terms of the model ofHill (1977). Stresses induced by the summit magma reservoir system strongly control faulting and magma transport in the rift zones close to the summit.