Modeling urban growth with GIS based cellular automata and least squares SVM rules: a case study in Qingpu–Songjiang area of Shanghai,China

A critical issue in urban cellular automata (CA) modeling concerns the identification of transition rules that generate realistic urban land use patterns. Recent studies have demonstrated that linear methods cannot sufficiently delineate the extraordinary complex boundaries between urban and non-urban areas and as most urban CA models simulate transitions across these boundaries, there is an urgent need for good methods to facilitate such delineations. This paper presents a machine learning CA model (termed MachCA) with nonlinear transition rules based on least squares support vector machines (LS-SVM) to simulate such urban growth. By projecting the input dataset into a high dimensional space using the LS-SVM method, an optimal hyper-plane is constructed to separate the complex boundaries between urban and nonurban land, thus enabling the retrieval of nonlinear CA transition rules. In the MachCA model, the transition rules are yes–no decisions on whether a cell changes its state or not, the rules being dynamically updated for each iteration of the model implementation. The application of the MachCA for simulating urban growth in the Shanghai Qingpu–Songjiang area in China reveals that the spatial configurations of rural–urban patterns can be modeled. A comparison of the MachCA model with a conventional CA model fitted by logarithmic regression (termed LogCA) shows that the MachCA model produces more hits and less misses and false alarms due to its capability for capturing the spatial complexity of urban dynamics. This results in improved simulation accuracies, although with only less than 1 % deviation between the overall errors produced by the MachCA and LogCA models. Nevertheless, the way MachCA model use in retrieving the transition rules provides a new method for simulating the dynamic process of urban growth.     

Prospects of interventions to alleviate rural–urban migration in Jiangsu Province,China based on sensitivity and scenario analysis

ABSTRACT

Rural–urban migration is an adaptive response to location-specific environmental or socio-economic stressors. Jiangsu Province, China is witnessing rapid economic growth fuelled by manufacturing and services sector. Rural–urban migration in Jiangsu, which brings higher stress to resource-carrying capacity of urban areas, is driven by rural “push” factors, principally labour surplus and unemployment in agriculture. This study investigates possible policy interventions aimed at relieving the rapid rural–urban migration in Jiangsu based on a sensitivity analysis of driving factors in rural agricultural production. It shows that rural–urban migration is sensitive to input elasticities of precipitation and labour. Two groups of scenario analysis corresponding to possible policy interventions are implemented. The first policy focuses on providing government subsidies to rural non-agricultural industries then compensate for the shrinking agricultural production. Another policy supports education in rural areas to provide more skilled labour resource which can be absorbed by non-agricultural industries. Both two policies are effective in reducing rural unemployment and alleviating rural–urban migration.     

Do model parameters change under changing climate and land use in the upstream of the Lancang River Basin,China?

ABSTRACT

Hydrological model parameters may vary under the impacts of climate and land-use change. This study proposes a hydrological modelling framework based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the variability of model parameters in three different experiments and to assess the impacts of climate and/or land-use change on these parameters in the upstream of the Lancang River Basin, China. In Experiment 1 (E1), most parameters show clear temporal trends under changing climate and land use, implying that model parameters are strongly influenced by their combined effects. Experiments 2 (E2) and 3 (E3) investigate the separate impacts of land-use change and climate change, respectively. Due to the almost invisible changes in land use in E2, there is no change detected in the model parameters. Temporal trends are found in most parameters in E3 and over half of them show consistent trends with E1, which indicates that climate change has greater impacts on model parameter variability. The simulated extreme streamflow and sediment fluxes vary substantially with time-variant parameters, implying that the variations in model parameters do matter for hydrological prediction.     

Annual 30-m land use/land cover maps of China for 1980–2015 from the integration of AVHRR,MODIS and Landsat data using the BFAST algorithm

Annual land use land cover(LULC) change information at medium spatial resolution(i.e. at 30 m) is required in numerous subjects, such as biophysical modelling, land management and global change studies. Annual LULC information,however, is usually not available at continental or national scale due to reasons such as insufficient remote sensing data coverage or lack of computational capabilities. Here we integrate high temporal resolution and coarse spatial resolution satellite images(i.e., Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) and Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies(GIMMS) normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)) with high spatial resolution datasets(China's Land-Use/cover Datasets(CLUDs) derived from 30-meter Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI) to generate reliable annual nominal 30 m LULC maps for the whole of China between 1980 and 2015. We also test the performance of a statistical based change detection algorithm(Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend), originally designed for tracking forest change, in classifying all-type LULC change.As a result, a nominal 30 m annual land use/land cover datasets(CLUD-A) from 1980 to 2015 was developed for the whole China. The mapping results were assessed with a change sample dataset, a regional annual validation sample set and a three-year China sample set. Of the detected change years, 75.61% matched the exact time of conversion within ±1 year. Annual mapping results provided a detail process of urbanization, deforestation, afforestation, water and cropland dynamics over the past 36 years. The consistent characterization of land change dynamics for China can be further used in scientific research and to support land management for policy-makers.     

A review of: “Transport and energy conversion in the heliosphere”

Lectures given at the CNRS Summer School on Solar Astrophysics, Oleron, France, 25-29 May 1998, edited by P.-P. Rozelot, L. Klein and J.-C. Vial, Lecture Notes in Physics: Vol. 553, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York, 2000. VIII+214 pp., DM 104.00, hardbound (ISBN 3-540-67595-7)     

Complexity analysis of precipitation using the Lempel–Ziv algorithm and a multi-scaling approach: a case study in Jilin province,China

Precipitation is an important part of the hydrologic cycle, and its complexity is closely related to surface runoff and changing groundwater dynamics, which in turn influences the accuracy of precipitation forecasts. In this study, we used the Lempel–Ziv algorithm (LZA) and a multi-scaling approach to assess precipitation complexity for 1958–2011 by analyzing time series data from 28 gauging stations located throughout Jilin province, China. The spatial distribution of normalized precipitation complexity was measured by LZA, a symbolic dynamics algorithm, and by a multi-scaling approach, which is described by fractals. In addition, the advantages and limitations of these two methods were investigated. The results indicate that both methods are applicable and consistent for calculating precipitation complexity, and that the degree of relief is a primary factor controlling precipitation complexity in the mountainous area; in the plain terrain, however, the prominent influencing factor is climate.     

Effects of “Grain for Green” reforestation program on rural sustainability in China: an AHP approach to peasant consensus of public land use policies

Climate change will affect the regional ability to achieve the poverty reduction and sustainable development (SD) objectives. Thus, any action plans to achieve these objectives should make climate change policies an integral part of the development planning process. The best practices and measures of climate change policies should be implemented to ensure regional or community sustainability. In this paper, a case study that promotes the integration of carbon sequestration into sustainable forest management and rural development plan with multi-stakeholders participation is introduced. To achieve SD goals, appropriate tools and methods are required to address impacts of alternative forest land uses on carbon sequestration and rural sustainability, and to prioritise land use options. A range of forest land use scenarios that address various aspects of the forest carbon sequestration rate and rural sustainability are evaluated against a SD indicator system. Planting vegetation is one of the practical approaches in mitigating global warming by sequestrating carbon from the atmosphere to plant matter and soil. In order to protect environment, reduce excessive soil erosion, and decrease the propensity and frequency of flooding and other natural disasters, China has initiated nationwide pivotal projects such as “Grain for Green” to mitigate exacerbated environmental deterioration and degradation. Such ecological programs may affect the socio-economic livelihoods of peasants and the economic activities of the whole region. The impact and economic uncertainty associated with such projects urge policy makers to include all stakeholders in the decision making process so that an agreeable solution towards sustainable rural development can be identified. This study uses Liping County in Guizhou province as a case study to identify a consensus among peasants regarding planting selected tree-species. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used as a multicriteria decision making tool to rank sustainability criteria and determine the priority of options. The method helps policy makers to understand what the peasants want to achieve by participating in a Grain for Green program and what their priorities are with respect to particular types of vegetation. The case study finds that economic and financial concerns are the most important drivers of the decision of which trees to plant among the peasants who took part in the implementation of the Grain for Green program. As a result of this, Gingko, redpine, and Chinese chestnut were the predominant trees planted under the program. The integrated assessment based on the AHP method provides an effective tool to help understand how economic, social and environmental factors are related to each other in affecting the nature of rural sustainability.     

Origin of the Yueguang gold deposit in Xinhua,Hunan Province,South China: insights from fluid inclusion and hydrogen–oxygen stable isotope analysis

The Yueguang gold deposit is located in Fengjia, Xinhua County, Hunan Province, South China. It represents a recently discovered small-scale gold deposit situated in the southwestern region of the Jiangnan Orogenic Belt, west of the Baimashan granitic batholith. In order to discern the characteristics of the ore-forming fluids, the underlying mineralization processes, and establish a foundation for the origin of the Yueguang gold deposit fluid inclusion micro-thermometry, as well as quartz hydro...     

Paleotemperature variations at Lake Caohai,southwestern China,during the past 500 years:Evidence from combined δ~(18)O analysis of cellulose and carbonates

The oxygen isotopic values of aquatic plant cellulose and carbonates in Lake Caohai sediments were measured using a continuous flow isotopic ratio mass spectrometer(CF-IRMS).Because of predictable oxygen isotopic fractionation between cellulose and its source water,the oxygen isotopic composition of paleo-lake water has been established quantitatively.Combined oxygen isotopic values of cellulose and carbonates were used in the‘Craig’equation to determine paleotemperatures and their variation in the lake during the past 500 years.Results show that the paleotemperature trend correlates well with meteorological records from Weining.There are four notable cold intervals at Lake Caohai over the past 500 years,namely 1540–1570AD,1670–1715AD,1780–1870AD and 1900–1930AD,and the former three cold intervals have been observed in the conventional Little Ice Age(LIA).These cold periods at Lake Caohai correspond well with those recorded from tree ring,peat,and ice core data from adjacent regions,particularly temperature those inferred fromδ18O of peat cellulose from Hongyuan Southwestern China.The trend in paleotemperature variations at Lake Caohai are also consistent with both the change of Indian summer monsoon,derived fromδ18O values of a stalagmite in Dongge,and a recorded shift in solar activity.The findings of this study illustrate that coupled analysis ofδ18O values of cellulose and carbonates from lake sediments may be used as a paleotemperature proxy.These results also provide further evidence of the existence of LIA in southwestern China.     

Cenozoic structural deformation and expression of the “Tan-Lu Fault Zone” in the West Sag of Liaohe Depression, Bohaiwan basin province, China

Based on the interpretation of 3D seismic data and structural mapping we analyzed the geometry and kinematics of the fault system and validated the expression of the “Tan-Lu Fracture Zone” in the West Sag of Liaohe Depression, Bohaiwan basin province. The Cenozoic structural deformation within the West Sag of Liaohe Depression can be divided into extensional structure system and dextral structure system. The extensional system is constituted by numerous NNE-NE trending Paleogene normal faults, where the Taian-Dawa fault (F1) is the master boundary fault (MBF) dominating the deposition during Paleogene so that the sag shows a complex half-graben with “boundary fault in the east and overlap in the west”. The dextral system is constituted by 2–3 dextral basement faults in NNE-NE trending (F2, F3, F4) and associated structure, and the time of structural action started in Oligocene and continued to Quarternary so that some associated secondary faults of the dextral system cut off the Neogene and Quaternary. Under the influence of the position and attitude of NNE-NE trending basement strike-slip faults, the central north part and the south part of the West Sag show obviously different structural features. The former appears to be a complex “graben” structure limited by the reversed strike-slip fault in the west and bounded by the inverted normal fault in the east, the latter remains the complex half-graben structure with “boundary fault in the east and overlap in the west”, and the graben was mildly reconstructed by one or two normal strike-slip faults. The dextral system within the West Sag is the element of the west branch fault of the Tan-Lu Fracture Zone, which is a deep fracture zone extending along the east of the Liaodongwan Gulf. The deep fracture zone branches off into two separate faults within the Liaohe Depression. The east branch goes through from northern part of the Liaodongwan Gulf to the East Sag of Liaohe Depression and links with the Denghua-Mishan Fault near Shenyang, and the west branch passes from northern part of the Liaodongwan Gulf to the West Sag and Damintun Sag of Liaohe Depression and links with the Yilan-Yitong Fault. The principal displacement zone of the west branch of the Tan-Lu Fracture Zone cuts off the master extensional fault (F1) within the West Sag of Liaohe Depression and induces many cover faults in EW trending within the Neogene and Quaternary.     

Extreme flows and unusual water levels near a Caribbean coral reef: was this a case of a “perfect storm”?

Observations of currents aimed to study the flow near a spawning aggregation reef, Gladden Spit off the coast of Belize, reveal unusually strong currents on 19–20 October 2009 (the current speed was over 1?m?s^?1, when the mean and standard deviation are 0.2?±?0.12?m?s^?1). During this short time, the water level was raised by 60–70?cm above normal in one place, but lowered by 10–20?cm in another location just 2?km away. The temperature dropped by over 2°C within a few hours. Analyses of local and remote sensing data suggest that a rare combination of an offshore Caribbean cyclonic eddy, a short-lived local tropical storm, and a Spring tide, all occurred at the same time and creating a “perfect storm” condition that resulted in the unusual event. High-resolution simulations and momentum balance analysis demonstrate how the unique shape of the coral reef amplified the coastal current through nonlinear flow–topography interactions. The suggested mechanism for the water level change is different than the classical wind-driven storm surge process. The study has implications for the influence of external forcing on mixing processes and physical–biological interactions near coral reefs.     

Moreton wave, “EIT wave”, and type II radio burst as manifestations of a single wave front

We show that a Moreton wave, an “EIT wave,” and a type II radio burst observed during a solar flare of July 13, 2004, might have been a manifestation of a single front of a decelerating shock wave, which appeared in an active region (AR) during a filament eruption. We propose describing a quasi-spheroidal wave propagating upward and along the solar surface by using relations known from a theory of a point-like explosion in a gas whose density changes along the radius according to a power law. By applying this law to fit the drop in density of the coronal plasma enveloping the solar active region, we first managed to bring the measured positions and velocities of surface Moreton wave and “EIT wave” into correspondence with the observed frequency drift rate of the meter type II radio burst. The exponent of the vertical coronal density falloff is selected by fitting the power law to the Newkirk and Saito empirical distributions in the height range of interest. Formal use of such a dependence in the horizontal direction with a different exponent appears to be reasonable up to distances of less than 200 Mm around the eruption center. It is possible to assume that the near-surface shock wave weakens when leaving this radius and finally the active region, entering the region of the quiet Sun where the coronal plasma density and the fast-mode speed are almost constant along the horizontal.     

Spatial distributions of δ13C, δ15N and C/N ratios in suspended particulate organic matter of a bay under serious anthropogenic influences: Daya Bay,China

Stable isotopic signatures (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) and C/N ratios of suspended particulate organic matter (POM) were investigated from the surface water of Daya Bay during summer and winter of 2015. The relatively high δ¹³C_POM values suggested the input of ¹³C-depleted terrigenous organic matter was low in Daya Bay. There were significant correlations between δ¹³C_POM values and chlorophyll a concentrations both during summer and winter, suggesting the δ¹³C_POM values were mainly controlled by the phytoplankton biomass in the surface water. The distribution of δ¹⁵N_POM values was more complicated than that of δ¹³C_POM and displayed low values in the outer bay and the Dan'ao River estuary. ¹⁵N-depleted ammonia originating from industrial wastewater might have strongly influenced the water quality and stable isotopic signatures of POM near the Dan'ao River estuary. The δ¹³C_POM and δ¹⁵N_POM values strongly reflect the influences of anthropogenic activity and eutrophication in Daya Bay.     

November 13, 1898 earthquake in Western Transbaikalia: a “white spot” in seismic history of East Siberia

The parametric catalogues of historical earthquakes in East Siberia contain large data gaps. Among these is a 15-year period in the late nineteenth century (1886–1901). This period was not covered by any of macroseismic catalogues known; neither acquisition nor systematization of macroseismic data was ever performed for that purpose. However, 15 years is a rather long period in which large seismic events may have occurred. The present paper deals with the previously unknown earthquake that occurred on November 13, 1898. The primary macroseismic data were taken from regional periodicals. On the strength of all the evidence obtained, the earthquake epicenter is localized in Western Transbaikalia, near the western end of the Malkhansky Range; the magnitude is estimated at M?=?5.9. The information about the large earthquake of November 13, 1898 provides filling significant gaps in knowledge for seismicity in Western Transbaikalia and a better understanding of seismic potential of faults therein. The obtained results show that the periods of seismic quiescence in catalogues may be related to insufficient information on seismicity of Eastern Siberia in the historical past rather than to the absence of large earthquakes.     

Unusual types of degassing from melts of peripheral magma chambers of “dormant” El’brus volcano, Russia: Geochemical and mineralogical features

In addition to traditional degassing of the melt in the subsurface magma chambers of the “dormant” El’brus volcano, alsodegassing through pores and microcracks that occur in the top of magma chambers has also been detected. It is proven by studies of compactness, porosity, and permeability of the rocks. The speeds at which gases (H, He, H₂S, CO₂, F, and Cl) pass through gneiss and volcanic rocks were estimated. Magma chambers on the ground surface are expressed in stable thermal anomalies revealed by night-time thermal sounding from an NOAA satellite. The presence of magma chambers at depths of 2–12 km was proven by magnetotelluric sounding [Sobisevich et al., 2003] and gravity studies. In addition to occasional “columns” of bright-white fluorescence above the thermal anomalies, aerosol “clouds” and hydrogen flows were detected by lidar and hydrogen surveying [Alekseev et al., 2007, 2009]. Observation at the same sites detected steam outbursts occurring periodically, the snow-ice cover thaws and the smell of hydrogen sulfide is felt. Geochemical characteristics of degassing were studied by snow sampling from up to 1 m deep pits. They were taken within contours of the thermal anomalies, above active fault zones, in the sites of bright-white fluorescence “columns,” and on a new fumarole locality. It is shown that the degassing of melt was accompanied by the gas transporting many elements (Li, B, Si, P, S, Ca, Zn, Pb, Mo, Ba, W, Hg, Ag, U, Th, I, Au, and Pt) in a fine-grained state (a few microns or possibly nanometers) with an active participation of F and Cl. Native platinum, chalcopyrite, halite, sylvite, barite, gypsum, zircon, opal, chlorinated organics, etc. were for the first time discovered in the Mt. El’brus area using electron microscope studies of solid residue from dehydrated snow samples. “Hidden” ore mineralization genetically related to degassing of melts enriched in ore elements may be supposedly found in paleo- and present-day areas of volcanic activity.