Estimation of fault-zone conductance by calibration of a regional groundwater flow model: Desert Hot Springs,California

The hydraulic conductance of a large fault zone has been estimated by calibrating a regional groundwater flow model. Drops in groundwater elevations of over 80 m have been observed along a 15-km length of the Mission Creek fault, California, USA. The large drops in elevation are attributed to the reduced hydraulic conductivity of the fault materials. A conceptual and numerical model of the two hydrologic subbasins in Desert Hot Springs, separated by the Mission Creek fault, was developed. The model was used to estimate the hydraulic conductance along the fault. The parameter estimation involved calibrating the model with observed groundwater elevations from over 40 locations over a 60-year period. The fault hydraulic conductances were estimated assuming a linear trend in the fault length, yielding variations in the fault hydraulic conductance of about an order of magnitude along the fault length (2?×?10^?11–4?×?10^?10 1/s). When an average fault thickness of 35 m is assumed, the fault hydraulic conductivity values are estimated to be from three to five orders of magnitude lower than the surrounding materials. A sensitivity analysis indicated that assumptions made in the conceptual model do not significantly affect estimated fault hydraulic conductances.     

Hydrogeological model of the Baltic Artesian Basin

The Baltic Artesian Basin (BAB) is a complex multi-layered hydrogeological system in the south-eastern Baltic covering about 480,000 km². The aim of this study is to develop a closed hydrogeological mathematical model for the BAB. Heterogeneous geological data from different sources were used to build the geometry of the model, i.e. geological maps and stratigraphic information from around 20,000 boreholes. The finite element method was used for the calculation of the steady-state three-dimensional (3D) flow of unconfined groundwater. The 24-layer model was divided into about 1,000,000 finite elements. A simple recharge model was applied to describe the rate of infiltration, and the discharge was set at the water-supply wells. Variable hydraulic conductivities were used for the upper (Quaternary) deposits, while constant hydraulic conductivity values were assumed for the deeper layers. The model was calibrated on the statistically weighted borehole water-level measurements, applying L-BFGS-B (automatic parameter optimization method) for the hydraulic conductivities of each layer. The principal flows inside the BAB and the integral flow parameters were analyzed. The modeling results suggest that deeper aquifers are characterized by strong southeast–northwest groundwater flow, which is altered by the local topography in the upper, active water-exchange aquifers.     

Influence of numerical precision on the calibration of AEM-based groundwater flow models

Groundwater modelers have embraced the use of automated calibration tools based on classical nonlinear regression techniques. While clearly an improvement over trial-and-error calibration, it is not clear to what extent these popular inverse modeling tools yield accurate parameter sets for groundwater flow models. The impact of model configuration and precision upon automated parameter estimation is also unclear. An extensive set of numerical experiments was performed to explore the influence of model configuration on the calibration of a regional groundwater flow model developed using the analytic element method. The results provided insight into the manner in which the specified level of model precision and the location of observation points influence the results of inverse modeling based on nonlinear regression. While the importance of these issues is application-specific, obtaining an accurate model calibration for the case study required both a careful placement of test observations and a greater-than-anticipated level of model precision. The required level of model precision for calibration was more than necessary to produce an acceptable flow solution.     

Analysis of groundwater flow through low-latitude alpine permafrost by model simulation: a case study in the headwater area of Yellow River on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,China

Warming climate and thawing permafrost have profound impacts on groundwater flow regimes in cold regions because of the shrinkage or disappearance of the confining unit formed by the permafrost layers and improving hydraulic connections. Numerical simulations of coupled groundwater flow and heat transfer are often used to characterize the changing permafrost hydrogeology. In this study, a number of scenarios for different hydraulic gradients and lake-water depths have been used to simulate the concordant permafrost evolution and groundwater movement using a two-dimensional cylindrical coordinate model at time scales of decades to centuries in response to a warming climate. The model is applied to a representative headwater catchment in the south-central headwater area of the Yellow River on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. The results show that the presence and movement of groundwater and the deeper subpermafrost aquifer can substantially accelerate permafrost degradation, and the disappearance of residual permafrost at depth can result in the sudden establishment of deep groundwater flow paths. All hydrological impacts will become evident after the stabilization of the hydrothermal and flow fields at 100–200 years. The stable discharge rate of groundwater flow varies from 8.0 to 12.4 m³ s⁻¹, and the stable velocity of groundwater flow varies from 1.6 × 10⁻⁷ to 4.4 × 10⁻⁷ m s⁻¹ under different scenarios within the model domain. The modeling results also demonstrate that flow velocity and discharge rate in local groundwater flow systems can be enhanced by an increased hydraulic conductivity, leading to an accelerated degradation of isolated permafrost bodies.

     

The importance of alternative conceptual models for simulation of concentrations in a multi-aquifer system

Four different conceptual models based on alternative geological interpretations were formulated for a shallow 600 km² aquifer system in Denmark comprising Quaternary deposits. Each of the four models was calibrated against groundwater heads and discharge measurements through inverse modeling. Subsequently, the transport capabilities of the four models were compared to 32 concentration measurements of environmental tracers (tritium ³H, helium-3 ³He, chlorofluorocarbons CFC11, CFC12 and CFC113). The flow simulations showed only minor differences in spatial head distribution associated with alternative conceptualizations despite the complexity of the aquifer system and the significant differences in geological interpretations. The models, however, showed major differences in predictions of the age of the groundwater and environmental tracer concentrations, differences that are seen as an effect of model structure uncertainty, because no additional calibrations to these data were performed. A single conceptualization may be adequate in characterizing the natural behavior of a field system after calibration, because the calibration procedure is able to compensate for errors in the data or in the conceptual model through biased parameter values. However, once extrapolation beyond the calibration base is attempted, different conceptual model formulations result in significantly different results. Consequently, it is crucial to take model conceptual uncertainty into account when making predictions beyond the calibration base.     

An approach to hydrogeological modeling of a large system of groundwater-fed lakes and wetlands in the Nebraska Sand Hills,USA

The feasibility of a hydrogeological modeling approach to simulate several thousand shallow groundwater-fed lakes and wetlands without explicitly considering their connection with groundwater is investigated at the regional scale (~40,000 km²) through an application in the semi-arid Nebraska Sand Hills (NSH), USA. Hydraulic heads are compared to local land-surface elevations from a digital elevation model (DEM) within a geographic information system to assess locations of lakes and wetlands. The water bodies are inferred where hydraulic heads exceed, or are above a certain depth below, the land surface. Numbers of lakes and/or wetlands are determined via image cluster analysis applied to the same 30-m grid as the DEM after interpolating both simulated and estimated heads. The regional water-table map was used for groundwater model calibration, considering MODIS-based net groundwater recharge data. Resulting values of simulated total baseflow to interior streams are within 1% of observed values. Locations, areas, and numbers of simulated lakes and wetlands are compared with Landsat 2005 survey data and with areas of lakes from a 1979–1980 Landsat survey and the National Hydrography Dataset. This simplified process-based modeling approach avoids the need for field-based morphology or water-budget data from individual lakes or wetlands, or determination of lake-groundwater exchanges, yet it reproduces observed lake-wetland characteristics at regional groundwater management scales. A better understanding of the NSH hydrogeology is attained, and the approach shows promise for use in simulations of groundwater-fed lake and wetland characteristics in other large groundwater systems.     

How can remote sensing contribute in groundwater modeling?

Groundwater resources assessment, modeling and management are hampered considerably by a lack of data, especially in semi-arid and arid environments with a weak observation infrastructure. Usually, only a limited number of point measurements are available, while groundwater models need spatial and temporal distributions of input and calibration data. If such data are not available, models cannot play their proper role in decision support as they are notoriously underdetermined and uncertain. Recent developments in remote sensing have opened new sources for distributed spatial data. As the relevant entities such as water fluxes, heads or transmissivities cannot be observed directly by remote sensing, ways have to be found to link the observable quantities to input data required by the model. An overview of the possibilities for employing remote-sensing observations in groundwater modeling is given, supported by examples in Botswana and China. The main possibilities are: (1) use of remote-sensing data to create some of the spatially distributed input parameter sets for a model, and (2) constraining of models during calibration by spatially distributed data derived from remote sensing. In both, models can be improved conceptually and quantitatively.     

Assessing groundwater storage in the Kairouan plain aquifer using a 3D lithology model (Central Tunisia)

The aquifer of the semi-arid Kairouan plain has been exploited for decades to supply the growing irrigated agriculture and the need of drinking water. In parallel, the major hydraulic works drastically changed the natural groundwater recharge processes. The continuous groundwater level drop observed since the 1970s naturally raises the question of groundwater storage sustainability. To date, hydrogeological studies focused on groundwater fluxes, but the total amount of groundwater stored in the aquifer system has never been fully estimated. This is the purpose of the present paper. A complete database of all available geological, hydrogeological and geophysical data was created to build a 3D lithology model. Then, the lithological units were combined with the hydraulic properties to estimate the groundwater storage. Over the 700 km² of the modelled area, the estimated storage in 2013 was around 18?×?10⁹ m³ (equivalent to 80 times the annual consumption of 2010) with a highly variable spatial distribution. In 45 years (1968–2013), 12% of the amount of groundwater stored in the aquifer has been depleted. According to these results, individual farms will face strong regional disparities for their access to groundwater in the near future.     

Toward reliable calibration of aquifer hydrodynamic parameters: characterizing and optimization of arid groundwater system using swarm intelligence optimization algorithm

Despite advanced development in computational techniques, the issue of how to adequately calibrate and minimize misfit between system properties and corresponding measurements remains a challenging task in groundwater modeling. Two important features of the groundwater regime, hydraulic conductivity (k) and specific yield (S _y), that control aquifer dynamic vary spatially within an aquifer system due to geologic heterogeneity. This paper provides the first attempt in using an advanced swarm-intelligence-based optimization algorithm (cuckoo optimization algorithm, COA) coupled with a distributed hydrogeology model (i.e., MODFLOW) to calibrate aquifer hydrodynamic parameters (S _y and k) over an arid groundwater system in east Iran. Our optimization approach was posed in a single-objective manner by the trade-off between sum of absolute error and the adherent swarm optimization approach. The COA optimization algorithm further yielded both hydraulic conductivity and specific yield parameters with high performance and the least error. Estimation of depth to water table revealed skillful prediction for a set of cells located at the middle of the aquifer system whereas showed unskillful prediction at the headwater due to frequent water storage changes at the inflow boundary. Groundwater depth reduced from east toward west and southwest parts of the aquifer because of extensive pumping activities that caused a smoothening influence on the shape of the simulated head curve. The results demonstrated a clear need to optimize arid aquifer parameters and to compute groundwater response across an arid region.     

Estimation of regional-scale groundwater flow properties in the Bengal Basin of India and Bangladesh

Quantitative evaluation of management strategies for long-term supply of safe groundwater for drinking from the Bengal Basin aquifer (India and Bangladesh) requires estimation of the large-scale hydrogeologic properties that control flow. The Basin consists of a stratified, heterogeneous sequence of sediments with aquitards that may separate aquifers locally, but evidence does not support existence of regional confining units. Considered at a large scale, the Basin may be aptly described as a single aquifer with higher horizontal than vertical hydraulic conductivity. Though data are sparse, estimation of regional-scale aquifer properties is possible from three existing data types: hydraulic heads, ¹⁴C concentrations, and driller logs. Estimation is carried out with inverse groundwater modeling using measured heads, by model calibration using estimated water ages based on ¹⁴C, and by statistical analysis of driller logs. Similar estimates of hydraulic conductivities result from all three data types; a resulting typical value of vertical anisotropy (ratio of horizontal to vertical conductivity) is 10⁴. The vertical anisotropy estimate is supported by simulation of flow through geostatistical fields consistent with driller log data. The high estimated value of vertical anisotropy in hydraulic conductivity indicates that even disconnected aquitards, if numerous, can strongly control the equivalent hydraulic parameters of an aquifer system.     

Groundwater drawdown at Nankou site of Beijing Plain: model development and calibration

Water shortage and groundwater pollution have become two primary environmental concerns to Beijing since the 1990s. The local aquifers, as the dominant sources for domestic and agricultural water supply, are depleting due to groundwater abstraction and continuous drought in recent years with rapid urbanization and increasing water consumption. Therefore, understanding the hydrogeological system is fundamental for a sustainable water resources management. In this article, the numerical analysis of a 3-D regional groundwater flow model for the Nankou area is presented. The hydrogeological system is reproduced according to sparsely distributed boreholes data. The numerical analysis is carried out using the scientific software OpenGeoSys, which is based on the finite element method. The model calibration and sensitivity analysis are accomplished with inverse methods by applying a model independent parameter estimation system (PEST). The results of the calibrated model show reasonable agreements with observed water levels. The transient groundwater flow simulations reflect the observed drawdown of the last 9 years and show the formation of a depression cone in an intensively pumped area.     

Large-scale hydraulic conductivity distribution in an unconfined carbonate aquifer using the ocean tidal propagation

The hydraulic conductivity of an unconfined carbonate aquifer at the uplifted atoll of Minami-Daito, Japan, was evaluated by a combination of cross-spectral analysis, analytical solution, and density-dependent groundwater modeling based on observed groundwater levels in 15 wells and at sea level. The island area was divided into 10 subregions based on island morphology and on inland propagation of ocean tides. The hydraulic conductivity was obtained for each subregion using analytical solutions based on phase lags of M₂ constituents of ocean tides at each well by assuming two aquifer thicknesses (300 and 1,800 m) and two effective porosities (0.1 and 0.3). The density-dependent groundwater model evaluated the hydraulic conductivity of the subregions by reproducing observed groundwater levels. The hydraulic conductivity in the subregions was estimated as 3.46?×?10^?3 to 6.35?×?10^?2 m/s for aquifer thickness of 300 m and effective porosity of 0.1, and as 1.73?×?10^?3 to 3.17?×?10^?2 m/s for aquifer thickness of 1,800 m and the effective porosity of 0.3. It was higher in southern and northern areas, and higher in interior lowland than in the western and eastern areas. Fissures and dolomite distributions on the island control differences of the omnidirectional ocean tidal propagation and cause these differences in hydraulic conductivity. The method used for this study may also be applicable to other small islands that have few or no data for hydraulic conductivity.

     

Multi-scale aquifer characterization and groundwater flow model parameterization using direct push technologies

Direct push (DP) technologies are typically used for cost-effective geotechnical characterization of unconsolidated soils and sediments. In more recent developments, DP technologies have been used for efficient hydraulic conductivity (K) characterization along vertical profiles with sampling resolutions of up to a few centimetres. Until date, however, only a limited number of studies document high-resolution in situ DP data for three-dimensional conceptual hydrogeological model development and groundwater flow model parameterization. This study demonstrates how DP technologies improve building of a conceptual hydrogeological model. We further evaluate the degree to which the DP-derived hydrogeological parameter K, measured across different spatial scales, improves performance of a regional groundwater flow model. The study area covers an area of ~60 km² with two overlying, mainly unconsolidated sand aquifers separated by a 5–7 m thick highly heterogeneous clay layer (in north-eastern Belgium). The hydrostratigraphy was obtained from an analysis of cored boreholes and about 265 cone penetration tests (CPTs). The hydrogeological parameter K was derived from a combined analysis of core and CPT data and also from hydraulic direct push tests. A total of 50 three-dimensional realizations of K were generated using a non-stationary multivariate geostatistical approach. To preserve the measured K values in the stochastic realizations, the groundwater model K realizations were conditioned on the borehole and direct push data. Optimization was performed to select the best performing model parameterization out of the 50 realizations. This model outperformed a previously developed reference model with homogeneous K fields for all hydrogeological layers. Comparison of particle tracking simulations, based either on the optimal heterogeneous or reference homogeneous groundwater model flow fields, demonstrate the impact DP-derived subsurface heterogeneity in K can have on groundwater flow and solute transport. We demonstrated that DP technologies, especially when calibrated with site-specific data, provide high-resolution 3D subsurface data for building more reliable conceptual models and increasing groundwater flow model performance.     

A regional-scale groundwater flow model for the Leon-Chinandega aquifer,Nicaragua

Groundwater flow in the Leon-Chinandega aquifer was simulated using transient and steady-state numerical models. This unconfined aquifer is located in an agricultural plain in northwest Nicaragua. Previous studies were restricted to determining groundwater availability for irrigation, overlooking the impacts of groundwater development. A sub-basin was selected to study the groundwater flow system and the effects of groundwater development using a numerical groundwater flow model (Visual MODFLOW). Hydrological parameters obtained from pumping tests were related to each hydrostratigraphic unit to assign the distribution of parameter values within each model layer. River discharge measurements were crucial for constraining recharge estimates and reducing the non-uniqueness of the model calibration. Steady-state models have limited usefulness because of the major variation of recharge and agricultural pumping during the wet and dry seasons. Model results indicate that pumping induces a decrease in base flow, depleting river discharge. This becomes critical during dry periods, when irrigation is highest. Transient modeling indicates that the response time of the aquifer is about one hydrologic year, which allows the development of management strategies within short time horizons. Considering further development of irrigated agriculture in the area, the numerical model can be a powerful tool for water resources management.     

Modeling water resources of a highly irrigated alluvial plain (Italy): calibrating soil and groundwater models

Modern and effective water management in large alluvial plains that have intensive agricultural activity requires the integrated modeling of soil and groundwater. The models should be complex enough to properly simulate several, often non-linear, processes, but simple enough to be effectively calibrated with the available data. An operative, practical approach to calibration is proposed, based on three main aspects. First, the coupling of two models built on well-validated algorithms, to simulate (1) the irrigation system and the soil water balance in the unsaturated zone and (2) the groundwater flow. Second, the solution of the inverse problem of groundwater hydrology with the comparison model method to calibrate the model. Third, the use of appropriate criteria and cross-checks (comparison of the calibration results and of the model outputs with hydraulic and hydrogeological data) to choose the final parameter sets that warrant the physical coherence of the model. The approach has been tested by application to a large and intensively irrigated alluvial basin in northern Italy.     

Estimating regional-scale permeability–depth relations in a fractured-rock terrain using groundwater-flow model calibration

The trend of decreasing permeability with depth was estimated in the fractured-rock terrain of the upper Potomac River basin in the eastern USA using model calibration on 200 water-level observations in wells and 12 base-flow observations in subwatersheds. Results indicate that permeability at the 1–10 km scale (for groundwater flowpaths) decreases by several orders of magnitude within the top 100 m of land surface. This depth range represents the transition from the weathered, fractured regolith into unweathered bedrock. This rate of decline is substantially greater than has been observed by previous investigators that have plotted in situ wellbore measurements versus depth. The difference is that regional water levels give information on kilometer-scale connectivity of the regolith and adjacent fracture networks, whereas in situ measurements give information on near-hole fractures and fracture networks. The approach taken was to calibrate model layer-to-layer ratios of hydraulic conductivity (LLKs) for each major rock type. Most rock types gave optimal LLK values of 40–60, where each layer was twice a thick as the one overlying it. Previous estimates of permeability with depth from deeper data showed less of a decline at <300 m than the regional modeling results. There was less certainty in the modeling results deeper than 200 m and for certain rock types where fewer water-level observations were available. The results have implications for improved understanding of watershed-scale groundwater flow and transport, such as for the timing of the migration of pollutants from the water table to streams.     

Hierarchical approach to hydrological model calibration

Hydrological models have been widely used for water resources management. Successful application of hydrological models depends on careful calibration and uncertainty analysis. Spatial unit of water balance calculations may differ widely in different models from grids to hydrological response units (HRU). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) software uses HRU as the spatial unit. SWAT simulates hydrological processes at sub-basin level by deriving HRUs by thresholding areas of soil type, land use, and slope combinations. This may ignore some important areas, which may have great impact on hydrological processes in the watershed. In this study, a hierarchical HRU approach was developed in order to increase model performance and reduce computational complexity simultaneously. For hierarchical optimization, HRUs are first divided into two-HRU types and are optimized with respect to some relevant influence parameters. Then, each HRU is further divided into two. Each child HRU inherits the optimum parameter values of the parent HRU as its initial value. This approach decreases the total calibration time while obtaining a better result. The performance of the hierarchical methodology is demonstrated on two basins, namely Sarisu-Eylikler and Namazgah Dam Lake Basins in Turkey. In Sarisu-Eylikler, we obtained good results by a combination of curve number (CN2), soil hydraulic conductivity, and slope for generating HRUs, while in Namazgah use of only CN2 gave better results.     

Comparison of a karst groundwater model with and without discrete conduit flow

Karst aquifers exhibit a dual flow system characterized by interacting conduit and matrix domains. This study evaluated the coupled continuum pipe-flow framework for modeling karst groundwater flow in the Madison aquifer of western South Dakota (USA). Coupled conduit and matrix flow was simulated within a regional finite-difference model over a 10-year transient period. An existing equivalent porous medium (EPM) model was modified to include major conduit networks whose locations were constrained by dye-tracing data and environmental tracer analysis. Model calibration data included measured hydraulic heads at observation wells and estimates of discharge at four karst springs. Relative to the EPM model, the match to observation well hydraulic heads was substantially improved with the addition of conduits. The inclusion of conduit flow allowed for a simpler hydraulic conductivity distribution in the matrix continuum. Two of the high-conductivity zones in the EPM model, which were required to indirectly simulate the effects of conduits, were eliminated from the new model. This work demonstrates the utility of the coupled continuum pipe-flow method and illustrates how karst aquifer model parameterization is dependent on the physical processes that are simulated.     

Tidal and Groundwater Fluxes to a Shallow, Microtidal Estuary: Constraining Inputs Through Field Observations and Hydrodynamic Modeling

Increased nutrient loading to estuaries has led to eutrophication, degraded water quality, and ecological transformations. Quantifying nutrient loads in systems with significant groundwater input can be difficult due to the challenge of measuring groundwater fluxes. We quantified tidal and freshwater fluxes over an 8-week period at the entrance of West Falmouth Harbor, Massachusetts, a eutrophic, groundwater-fed estuary. Fluxes were estimated from velocity and salinity measurements and a total exchange flow (TEF) methodology. Intermittent cross-sectional measurements of velocity and salinity were used to convert point measurements to cross-sectionally averaged values over the entire deployment (index relationships). The estimated mean freshwater flux (0.19?m³/s) for the 8-week period was mainly due to groundwater input (0.21?m³/s) with contributions from precipitation to the estuary surface (0.026?m³/s) and removal by evaporation (0.048?m³/s). Spring?Cneap variations in freshwater export that appeared in shorter-term averages were mostly artifacts of the index relationships. Hydrodynamic modeling with steady groundwater input demonstrated that while the TEF methodology resolves the freshwater flux signal, calibration of the index?Csalinity relationships during spring tide conditions only was responsible for most of the spring?Cneap signal. The mean freshwater flux over the entire period estimated from the combination of the index-velocity, index?Csalinity, and TEF calculations were consistent with the model, suggesting that this methodology is a reliable way of estimating freshwater fluxes in the estuary over timescales greater than the spring?Cneap cycle. Combining this type of field campaign with hydrodynamic modeling provides guidance for estimating both magnitude of groundwater input and estuarine storage of freshwater and sets the stage for robust estimation of the nutrient load in groundwater.     

鄂尔多斯白垩系地下水盆地水文地质概念模型

水文地质概念模型是地下水模拟与水资源评价的基础。为了构建地下水数值模拟模型,以鄂尔多斯白垩系地下水盆地为研究对象,以丰富翔实的勘查资料为依据,从白垩系地下水系统边界条件、水文地质结构、水流系统、水文地质参数、源汇项等方面进行概化,联合采用ArcGIS、RS、GMS同位素、基流分割、地质统计学、随机模拟等技术方法,建立了一组水文地质概念模型及其相应的空间离散表达,并讨论了地下水模拟面临的问题与发展趋势。