Elevated serum vitellogenin levels and gonadal abnormalities in wild male flounder (Pleuronectes yokohamae) from Tokyo Bay, Japan.

Concentrations of vitellogenin (VTG) in serum of wild male flounder (Pleuronectes yokohamae) were investigated, as a biomarker for environmental estrogens in marine waters, from January 1997 to May 1998 in Tokyo Bay, Japan (n = 130) and from a reference site in Hokkaido, Japan, far from urban areas (about 40 km from Hakodate city) from March 1997 to June 1998 (n = 62). Statistically higher concentrations of serum VTG were detected in wild male flounder collected in Tokyo Bay (range: 25-2200 ng ml-1) compared to fish from Hokkaido (range: 31-91 ng ml-1) throughout the entire sampling period. Three out of 20 males collected off Haneda, in the inner part of Tokyo Bay, showed testes containing small numbers of oocytes. This intersex condition was not found among males collected from the reference site. This study suggests that the abnormally high levels of VTG and the presence of oocytes in the testis of male flounder collected from Tokyo Bay could be the effect of environmental estrogens.     

What is an endangered species worth? Threshold costs for protecting imperilled fishes in Canada

The protection of imperilled fish species is increasingly urgent given ongoing fisheries declines and the degradation of aquatic habitats. In Canada, threatened aquatic species were less likely than terrestrial species to be listed under the Species at Risk Act (SARA), the main legal instrument for bestowing protection, in the early years of the Act's implementation. In this paper, the existence of economic thresholds that might have hampered the protection of Canadian marine and freshwater fishes is examined. The analysis of the socio-economic data used to inform listing decisions about threatened fish taxa over the past decade reveals that the likelihood of being listed declines non-linearly with increasing estimated costs of protection but does not vary with proposed threat status. The estimated threshold cost (i.e., the point at which the likelihood of not being listed=0.5) was ∼$5,000,000 (∼$1,400,000 to ∼$31,400,000, 95% CI) per decade for freshwater species but only ∼$90,000 ($∼50,000 to ∼$140,000, 95% CI) per decade for marine fish taxa. In fact, no marine fish species with an anticipated cost of listing greater than zero was listed for protection. The presence of existing management legislation and qualitative statements about negative impacts of listing on exploitation generally led to denying protection to marine but not to freshwater species. These findings highlight both a large and inconsistent emphasis on costs of protection in SARA listing decisions, to the detriment of marine fish species.     

Liver histopathology in Baltic eelpout (Zoarces viviparus) – A baseline study for use in marine environmental monitoring

The use of liver histopathology in various fish species as a biomarker in marine monitoring programmes to assess the biological effect of exposure to anthropogenic contaminants is well established. However, although the eelpout (Zoarces viviparus) has repeatedly been recommended as an appropriate bioindicator for monitoring purposes in the Baltic Sea, information on histopathological liver alterations of this species is scarce. In order to obtain an overview, a total of 1070 eelpout, collected in the period between spring 2001 and winter 2010 from 34 sampling sites distributed over large parts of the Baltic Sea, were histologically analyzed. Liver lesions were recorded and classified according to established liver lesion categories. A high prevalence of non-specific and early toxicopathic non-neoplastic hepatic lesions was recorded. In contrast, pre-neoplastic lesions were observed only in rare cases and neoplastic changes were absent. A comparison with published data on other fish species revealed that the observed alterations may indicate effects of environmental stressors including contaminants. The results of the present study, thus, support the application of eelpout liver histopathology in environmental monitoring.     

Risk of environmental genotoxicity in the Baltic Sea over the period of 2009–2011 assessed by micronuclei frequencies in blood erythrocytes of flounder (Platichthys flesus), herring (Clupea harengus) and eelpout (Zoarces viviparus)

Environmental genotoxicity was investigated at 82 locations encompassing different regions of the Baltic Sea. Micronuclei (MN) analysis was performed in erythrocytes of 1892 specimens of flounder Platichthys flesus, herring Clupea harengus and eelpout Zoarces viviparus, three of the most common native fish species of the Baltic Sea collected in 2009–2011. MN background levels in fish were determined using data obtained in 2001–2011 from 107 Baltic sites. Extremely high genotoxicity risk zones were found for flounder at 11 stations out of 16 in 2009 and 33 stations of 41 in 2010–2011, for herring, at 5 of 18 stations in 2009 and 20 of 43 stations in 2010–2011, in eelpout only at one out of 29 stations. The sampling stations were restricted mainly to the southern and eastern Baltic Sea offshore zones and in most of them, MN frequencies in flounder and herring significantly exceeded the reference and background levels of micronuclei. This is a first attempt to evaluate the background MN responses, as well as low, high and extremely high genotoxicity risk levels for native fish species.     

The influence of an extreme drought event in the fish community of a southern Europe temperate estuary

Between 2003 and 2006, a severe drought occurred throughout the Mondego River catchment's area, inducing lower freshwater flows into the estuary. As a consequence, both 2004 and 2005 were considered as extreme drought events. From June 2003 to June 2006, the fish assemblage of the Mondego Estuary was sampled monthly in five stations during the night, using a 2 m beam trawl. Fish abundance was standardized as the number of individuals per 1000 m² per season and the assemblage was analyzed based on ecological guilds: estuarine residents, marine juveniles, marine adventitious, freshwater, catadromous and marine species that use the estuary as a nursery area. A total of 42 species belonging to 23 families were identified, with estuarine residents and nursery species dominating the fish community. Variations in the fish community were assessed using non-metric MDS, being defined as three distinct periods: summer and autumn 2003, 2004/2005 and winter and summer 2006. The main drought-induced effects detected were the depletion of freshwater species and an increase in marine adventitious in 2004/2005, due to an extended intrusion of seawater inside the estuary and a significant reduction in abundance during the driest period of estuarine resident species. Nevertheless, from the management point of view, it could be stated that although some variations occurred due to environmental stress, the main core of the Mondego Estuary fish community remained relatively unchanged.     

Endocrine disruption in a marine amphipod? Field observations of intersexuality and de-masculinisation

Intersexuality has been found in both males and females of the marine/estuarine amphipod, Echinogammarus marinus, at polluted and reference sites in East Scotland. Polluted sites had significantly more intersex specimens than reference sites, however the cause of intersexuality is unclear. Discriminant analysis of morphometric data showed that normal male specimens from the most polluted site resembled pooled intersex males, suggesting that subtle endocrine disruption (ED) maybe occurring in these otherwise apparently normal males. The main discriminating character was gnathopod size, recognised to be under androgenic gland control. The association of distinctive morphometry with intersexuality may provide a new approach to biomarkers of ED in crustaceans. The opportunities for other novel biomarkers, for example biochemical or behavioural markers, may also be explored through study of intersex animals.     

The viviparous blenny (Zoarces viviparus) as a bioindicator of contaminant exposure: application of biomarkers of apoptosis and DNA damage

The viviparous blenny (Zoarces viviparus), also known as eelpout, is considered a suitable biomonitor for use in European estuarine and coastal waters. We have previously shown that Z. viviparus from the industrialised Tyne estuary (UK) display certain histopathologies (e.g., ovotestis and hepatic nuclear and cellular pleomorphism), which are associated with contaminant exposure [Mar. Environ. Res. 55 (2003) 137]. Furthermore, the prevalence of these pathologies was higher than in fish collected from a less contaminated reference site (the Alde estuary, UK). Here, tissue samples were collected from Z. viviparus from the Tyne and Alde estuaries (in the spring and autumn) and analysed for DNA adducts using the (32)P-postlabelling assay and for histopathology. Z. viviparus caught from the Tyne during the spring (56.4+/-18.5 adducts per 10(8) nucleotides) and autumn (63.1+/-7.5 adducts per 10(8) nucleotides) exhibited patterns of DNA adducts which indicated exposure to a complex mixture of genotoxins. In contrast, levels of DNA adducts in Z. viviparus from Alde estuary were significantly lower during both sampling periods. Histopathological changes to the gonads included intersex (ovotestis) and germ cell apoptosis (detected via the TUNEL assay) in male fish captured from the Tyne estuary. Further studies on the use of germ cell apoptotic rate at different estuarine sites are required if it is to be used as a reproductive biomarker of contaminant exposure in male fish.     

Fish community structure of the St Lucia Estuarine System under prolonged drought conditions and its potential for recovery after mouth breaching

The St Lucia Estuarine System, South Africa, has been under pressure due to recent drought conditions, which have led to closure of the mouth, extremely low lake levels and hypersaline conditions. The estuary mouth closed in June 2002 and remained so for almost 5 years before being breached by Cyclone Gamede in May 2007. After mouth closure in August 2007, salinities in South and North Lake gradually increased to reach highs of 68 at the end of 2008, while salinities in the Narrows gradually declined during the study. Fish were sampled biannually during 2006–2008 with seine and gill-nets at six sites throughout the system. A total of 20,422 fish from 72 species were recorded, with the number of species and CPUE gradually decreasing from the Narrows throughout the system to Hells Gate in the upper parts of the system. The fish community was dominated by the freshwater species Oreochromis mossambicus, and two estuarine species, Ambassis ambassis and Hyporamphus capensis. The fish community was dominated in terms of species numbers by marine spawning species, but in terms of fish abundance by freshwater and estuarine breeding species. Recruitment of post-larvae of 20 marine species into the system occurred following opening of the mouth in March 2007, highlighting the importance of the system as a nursery area for marine species. The fish community was structured by spatial differences between sampling areas and between the three main compartments of the system, and not by temporal changes during the study period.     

Impact of estuary barrage construction on fish assemblages in the lower part of a river and the role of fishways as a passage

The construction of an estuary barrage, an instream structure in the lower reaches of a river, causes significant physical changes in water flow patterns and river morphology, and results in altered environmental conditions. Here, we examined the impact of the Geum River estuary barrage, completed in 1990, on fish assemblages by using a literature search and fresh surveys of fishways in the barrage. We found that fish assemblages upstream and downstream of the barrage were altered following its completion. After construction, more species were found in the freshwater area, with a particularly great increase in freshwater species. Conversely, estuarine and marine species were only consistently caught in the downstream salt-water area, although the number of species increased. In total, 15,829 fish from 47 species and 20 families were identified at the three types (pool and weir, rubble type, and boat passage) of fishways in the barrage. The dominant species were Chelon haematocheilus, an estuarine species, Coilia nasus, a diadromous species, and Erythroculter erythropterus, a freshwater species. The mean total length of fish (101.9 ± 76.0 mm) in the boat passage fishway was approximately 100 mm lesser than those in the pool and weir (207.2 ± 112.8 mm) and rubble type (205.8 ± 112.7 mm) fishways. The boat passage fishway was the most efficient for fish movements. The current fishway system is not sufficient for fish migration, and thus additional ways are required to improve the system such as the boat passage. Few estuarine or diadromous species were found in both freshwater and salt-water areas, but freshwater fishes that accidently moved to salt-water area actively used fishways. Therefore, fishway management in the Geum River estuary barrage has to focus on freshwater fish; however, this may need to change to a focus on migratory fishes depending on ecological life cycles of migratory fish.     

Pathology of the liver, kidney and gonad of flounder (Platichthys flesus) from a UK estuary impacted by endocrine disrupting chemicals.

The Mersey estuary is highly contaminated with xenobiotics compared to the nearby Dee estuary. Male flounder, a migratory flatfish caught in the Mersey frequently contains high blood concentrations of the oestrogen controlled, female protein vitellogenin, suggesting that Mersey flounder have been exposed to endocrine disrupting contaminants. Males caught from the Dee contain lower blood vitellogenin levels. Preliminary histopathological examination of 410 flounder from both estuaries, focuses on the liver, kidney and gonads. Hepatic tubular vacuolation, foci of cellular alteration, and hepatocellular tumours were seen. Renal and gonadal pathology included the presence of two Mersey fish with enlarged and abnormal glomeruli, three phenotypic male Mersey flounder with unilateral intersex gonads and one male with bilateral, abnormal ovarian follicular components in the testis. These initial results provide pathological evidence of xenobiotic exposure in flounder sampled from both estuaries. Preliminary findings from flounder sampled from Millport, an offshore site in Southwest Scotland, showed no histopathological evidence of xenobiotic exposure.     

The Gambia River estuary: A reference point for estuarine fish assemblages studies in West Africa

The Gambia River is one of the last aquatic ecosystems in West Africa that has not yet been affected by strong environmental changes and human disturbances. In contrast to the neighbouring Casamance and Sine Saloum estuaries, the Gambia estuary is free of major climatic perturbation and remains a “normal” estuary, with a salinity range from freshwater to 39. The present paper aims to study the spatial and seasonal variability of fish assemblages in this estuary in terms of bio-ecological categories and of their relation with some environmental variables. Four surveys were conducted, from June 2001 to April 2002, in order to cover the major hydroclimatic events, at 44 sampling sites along the lower, intermediate and upper zones of the Gambia estuary (up to 220 km). Fish assemblages were sampled using a purse seine net, fish were identified to species level and environmental variables such as water depth, transparency, salinity, temperature and percentage oxygen saturation were measured. The main spatial structure of the fish assemblages and its seasonal changes were first studied using the STATIS-CoA multitable method. The combination of fish assemblages and environmental variables was then analysed using the STATICO method, designed for the simultaneous analysis of paired ecological tables. A total of 67 species were observed, belonging to all bio-ecological categories characterizing West African estuaries. The marine component of the community was largely dominant throughout the estuary, while the freshwater component was permanently observed only in the upstream zone. The main spatial structure was a longitudinal gradient contrasting marine and freshwater affinity assemblages, with strong seasonal variations. The most complete gradient was observed in December, at the beginning of the dry and cool season, while in June, at the end of the dry and warm season, there was the least structured gradient. The role of salinity, always correlated with temperature, was emphasized, while turbidity appeared to be another important factor. Oxygen and depth did not play a major role at the estuary scale. The relative importance of the bio-ecological categories varied according to the season and the distance to sea. Stable fish assemblages were observed in the lower zone at the end of the dry season, in the upper zone during the flood and in the middle zone throughout the year. In some situations, a relative inadequacy between fish assemblages and their environment was noticed. The present study contributes to the definition of the functioning of a “normal” West African estuary, the Gambia estuary, with balanced effects of marine and freshwater influences and the presence of all bio-ecological categories. The Gambia estuary can therefore be considered to be a reference ecosystem for further comparisons with other tropical estuarine ecosystems, subjected to natural or artificial perturbations.     

Faecal indicator bacteria in New Zealand freshwater fish: a pilot study

Recent studies have suggested that poikilothermic animals, such as fish, may represent a previously overlooked source of the faecal indicator bacteria (FIB) used for the assessment of water quality. However, quantitative studies of FIB in poikilotherms are scarce. We investigated the presence of FIB in the faeces of five freshwater fish species. E. coli and enterococci were detected in 71 and 76% of faecal samples, respectively. Concentrations were highly variable, with maximum concentrations (2.1?×?10⁴ E. coli and 1.3?×?10⁶ enterococci per gram of faecal material) up to four orders of magnitude higher than present in the water column. FIB were not detected in faecal samples from marine fish. Our findings suggest that FIB ingested from the environment may be capable of replication within the fish gut, making fish a potential source and transport mechanism for FIB in New Zealand freshwaters. This may have implications for water quality monitoring.     

gamma-Glutamyl transpeptidase as a possible marker of Sertoli cells in fish testes for studies of xenoestrogens.

Estrogenic chemicals are known to have marked effects on the reproductive system of male fish. Finding useful markers of reproductive effects are therefore of great importance and interest. gamma-Glutamyl transpeptidase (gamma-GTP) is a possible marker of Sertoli cells in testes of fish. In the present study we have examined the relationship between the activity of gamma-GTP and the histological structure of the Sertoli cells in testes of five fish species (guppy, Poecilia reticulata; platyfish, Xiphophorus maculatus; eelpout, Zoarces viviparus; rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss; flounder, Platichthys flesus). In general we found that the more distinct the Sertoli cells the higher the activity of gamma-GTP.     

Spatio-temporal structure of diatom assemblages in a temperate estuary. A STATICO analysis

This study examines the spatio-temporal structure of diatom assemblages in a temperate estuary (Ria de Aveiro, Western Portugal). Eighteen monthly surveys were conducted, from January 2002 to June 2003, at three sampling sites (at both high and low tide) along the estuarine salinity gradient. The relationship of diatom assemblages and environmental variables was analysed using the STATICO method, which has been designed for the simultaneous analysis of paired ecological tables. This method allowed examination of the stable part of the environment-diatom relationship, and also the variations of this relationship through time. The interstructure factor map showed that the relationship between the 11 environmental variables and the abundance of the 231 diatom species considered was strongest in the months May and September 2002 and January, February and May 2003. The stable part of the species–environment relationships mainly consisted of a combined phosphate, chlorophyll a and salinity gradient linked to a freshwater-marine species gradient. A more pronounced gradient was observed in January, February and May 2003. Diatom assemblages showed clear longitudinal patterns due to the presence of both marine and freshwater components. May and September 2002 had the least structured gradients with marine-estuarine species appearing in the freshwater side of the gradient. The most complete gradient in February 2003 could be considered, in terms of bio-ecological categories, as the most structured period of the year, with a combination of strong marine influence in the lower zone and freshwater influence in the upper. The best-structured gradients were during periods of a diatom bloom. Stable diatom assemblages (with a strong structure and a good fit between the diatoms and environment) are described and characterized. This study shows the efficiency of the STATICO analysis. The inclusion of space-time data analysis tools in ecological studies may therefore improve the knowledge of the dynamics of species–environmental assemblages.     

Hematological analyses of some fish species in the Gulf of Riga

The objective of this work was to detect and compare blood parameters of European flounder (Platichthys flesus), herring (Clupea harertgus membras), eelpout (Zoarces viviparous) and perch (Perca fluviatilis) at the Eastern and Western coast of the Gulf of Riga. The number of erythrocytes in herring of the Gulf of Riga ranges from 1.45 to 2.57 × 10¹²/L. At the same time no statistically significant difference in red blood cells (RBC) count between herring of both coasts was detected. The most common white blood cells in GoR herring blood smear were lymphocytes ranging from 73 to 94%. The number of lymphoblasts was very small (0?C4%), indicating that herring of the GoR is not exposed to chronic stress. The number of erythrocytes in flounder ranged from 0.8 to 2.65 × 10¹²/L, but hemoglobin??from 4.7 to 16.5 g/dL. RBC count and hemoglobin level in European flounder did not differ between coasts however hematocrit was significantly higher at the Eastern coast. White blood cell count in flounder near the Western and Eastern coast was almost equal. Blood indices in eelpouts were slightly higher at the Eastern cost. Slightly higher number of red blood cells and significantly higher hemoglobin level has been observed in perch feeding near the Eastern coast, indicating physiological disturbances of fish. Although hematological analysis pointed at slightly worse living conditions of fish at the Eastern coast, in general hematological picture did not give evidence of fish welfare decline in the Gulf of Riga.     

Fish assemblage structure of Koycegiz Lagoon–Estuary, Turkey: Spatial and temporal distribution patterns in relation to environmental variation

Spatial and temporal variation in fish assemblage structure of Koycegiz Lagoon–Estuarine System (KLES), located on the northwestern Turkish coast of Mediterranean, was investigated along an estuarine gradient where salinity ranged from 5 in upper reaches to 40 in lower reaches during October 1993–September 1994. Throughout the study, 42 species, consisting of marine (25), marine–estuarine-dependent (12), freshwater (3), catadromous (1), and estuarine resident (1) forms, were collected in trammel nets. Although species richness of marine species was greater than that of other groups, numerical contribution by marine species to the total catch was only 16%. Tilapia spp., the most abundant species mostly during summer and early spring at upper reaches, contributed 17% of the total samples. Among the seven species of Mugilidae, which contributed 42% of the total catch, Mugil cephalus, Liza aurata, and Liza salines contributed 10, 13, and 10% of the total catch, respectively. Consistent with findings from other studies, species richness and abundance were highest during late spring and summer and the lowest during winter and early spring. Samples from sites at or near the sea had more marine species. Samples from upper reaches had more freshwater and marine–estuarine-dependent species. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) indicated that salinity and turbidity were the most important environmental parameters affecting fishes. Sites near the sea were associated with high salinity and low turbidity, and sites in upper reaches had low salinity and high turbidity. Thus, the pattern observed in fish assemblage structure appears to be strongly influenced by species' responses to dominant salinity and turbidity gradients.     

The importance of estuary head waters as nursery areas for young estuary- and marine-spawned fishes in temperate South Africa

The restriction of freshwater flow into estuaries, the presence of in-stream barriers and the occurrence of invasive fish species in these habitats are identified as major threats to these young estuary- and marine-spawned fish species. These aspects have been investigated using the distribution and abundance of young estuary- and marine-spawned fish species in the headwater environments of four permanently open estuaries of the Eastern Cape, South Africa. Fishes were collected twice per season over the 2009 and 2010 period, using mixed method sampling with seine net hauls and overnight fyke net deployments. Of the 74,751 fishes collected, 37,444 fishes, 18 families and 34 species were taken in fyke net catches, while 34,308 fishes, 21 families and 38 species were caught in seine nets. In the Great Fish, Kowie, Kariega and Sundays River systems, juveniles of estuarine residents dominated headwater catches, followed by juveniles of estuary-dependent marine species. The prevalence of larval and small juvenile stages of estuary- and marine-spawned fish species highlights the potential importance of these transitional areas for young fish.     

Influence of rock‐pool characteristics on the distribution and abundance of inter‐tidal fishes

Rock pools can be found in inter‐tidal marine environments worldwide; however, there have been few studies exploring what drives their, fish species composition, especially in Australia. The rock‐pool environment is highly dynamic and offers a unique natural laboratory to study the habitat choices, physiological limitations and adaptations of inter‐tidal fish species. In this study rock pools of the Sydney region were sampled to determine how the physical (volume, depth, rock cover and vertical position) and biological (algal cover and predator presence) parameters of pools influence fish distribution and abundance. A total of 27 fish species representing 14 families was observed in tide pools at the four study locations. The five most abundant species were Bathygobius cocosensis, Centropogon australis, Enneapterygius atrogulare, Lepidoblennius haplodactylus and Microcanthus strigatus, which together represented 71% of the total number of fish recorded. Larger rock pools containing more algal and rock ledge cover hosted a larger and more diverse population of fish. Furthermore, certain species were only found in pools with specific characteristics, such as the presence of loose shells, a variety algae or rock cover, suggesting a high degree of habitat specificity. By contrast, some species were ubiquitous and thus can likely tolerate a wide variety of physical conditions.     

Accumulation features of arsenic species in various fishes collected from coastal cities in Korea

In this study, 36 fish species were collected from three coastal cities in Korea to investigate levels and patterns of six arsenicals (arsenite: As (III), arsenate: As (V), arsenocholine: AsC, arsenobetaine: AsB, monomethylarsonic acid: MMA, and dimethylarsinic acid: DMA). The levels of ∑₆ As in the different fish species varied substantially, ranging from 0.02 μg As/g ww (Islaeli carp) to 9.65 μg As/g ww (Skate ray) with a median of 0.40 μg As/g ww. All the arsenicals in marine fishes showed higher levels than those in freshwater fishes due to fish feed living in saline water. Overall, marine carnivorous fishes seem to be more contaminated with arsenic. For all the fish samples, AsB (mean fraction: 90.6%) was dominant among the six arsenicals, indicating biomethylation of inorganic arsenic and accumulation of AsB. Fish species with high water contents showed elevated levels of As (III), but there was no further significant correlations between arsenicals and water/lipid contents. Concentrations of As (V) were significantly lower than those of As (III), which implies that As (V) is reduced during biomethylation of inorganic arsenic. Consequently, we hypothesize that the toxicity of arsenic (mainly derived from As (III)) can be increased by the reduction of As (V), especially for the fish species with higher water contents.     

Comparison of,and the effects of altered freshwater inflow on,fish assemblages of two contrasting South African estuaries: the cool-temperate Olifants and the warm-temperate Breede

This study compares the fish assemblages of the permanently open cool-temperate Olifants and warm-temperate Breede estuaries on the west and south coasts of South Africa respectively, and their responses to altered freshwater flows. Both estuaries have experienced a >35% reduction in mean annual runoff (MAR) from a historical reference condition to the present day with a >60% reduction possible under future flow scenarios. With the exception of species that have both marine and estuarine breeding populations, the Olifants Estuary fish assemblage has experienced an overall 20% decrease in abundance from reference (pristine state) to the present day and will gradually decline to 55% of reference with a predicted future 60% reduction in MAR. Consequently, future reductions in flow are likely to result in the Olifants Estuary progressing towards a low biomass, low diversity, marine-dominated system. In contrast, reduced freshwater flows in the Breede Estuary are likely to experience an overall reduction in the abundance of species that breed only in estuaries, and in freshwater and catadromous species. Collectively, entirely estuarine-dependent fish will increase in abundance, but considered individually some important exploited species such as Argyrosomus japonicus and Pomadasys commersonnii will collapse to 50% of historical numbers once there has been a 64% reduction in MAR. Overall, fish abundance in the estuary has increased by 6% from reference to the present day and is likely to increase to 115% of reference with future reductions in flow. Some species with a preference for fresh and brackish water will be all but lost from the system, but overall diversity is likely to increase with the range expansion of warm-temperate and subtropical marine species westward. In all, the fish assemblage of the Breede Estuary will experience a gradual change from a relatively high-diversity, low-abundance, freshwater rich system under historical flow conditions to a high diversity, high-abundance, marine-dominated system with future reductions in flow.