用FrontPage制作留言板

随着气象事业的发展,省、市、县气象局,建设了自己的气象农业经济信息网。由于各县局多数都没有专业的网站设计人员,因此兼职人员一般都采用比较简单的Fmnt Page来制作自己的网站。网站建好了,可是和访问客户相互交流的留言板基本都是用Asp制作的,对于有的县站来说,因为缺乏专业人员,只好不做留言板。可是缺少了这个和访问客户沟通的工具,对于农经网的未来发展和点击率都是很不利的。     

浅谈县站农经网的发展

随着信息时代的到来，承载信息的网络愈来愈受到人们的关注。气象部门利用其自身的“网络”优势，黑龙江省气象局与省农办联合于2000年2月制定了以气象网络为主建设农业经济信息网(简称农经网)的方案，并通过了省政府办公会议的审定。     

The impact of agricultural trade approaches on global economic modeling

Researchers explore future economic and climate scenarios using global economic and integrated assessment models to understand long-term interactions between human development and global environmental changes. However, differences in trade modeling approaches are an important source of uncertainty in these types of assessments, particularly for regional projections. In this study, we modified the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to include a novel logit-based Armington trade structure, to examine two approaches to modeling trade: (1) an approach that represents segmented regional markets (SRM), and (2) an approach that represents integrated world markets (IWM). Our results demonstrate that assuming IWM, i.e., homogeneous product modeling and neglecting economic geography, could lead to lower cropland use (i.e., by 115 million hectares globally) and terrestrial carbon fluxes (i.e., by 25%) by the end of the century under the default GCAM scenario, compared with the logit-based Armington SRM structure. The results are highly heterogeneous across regions, with more pronounced regional trade responses driven by global market integration. Our study highlights the critical role that assumptions about future trade paradigms play in global economic and integrated assessment modeling. The results imply that closer harmonization of trade modeling approaches and trade parameter values could increase the convergence of regional results among models in model intercomparison studies.     

Estimating the economic potential for agricultural soil carbon sequestration in the Central United States using an aggregate econometric-process simulation model

The purpose of this paper is to develop and apply a new method to assess economic potential for agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation. This method uses secondary economic data and conventional econometric production models, combined with estimates of soil carbon stocks derived from biophysical simulation models such as Century, to construct economic simulation models that estimate economic potential for carbon sequestration. Using this method, simulations for the central United States show that reduction in fallow and conservation tillage adoption in the wheat-pasture system could generate up to about 1.7 million MgC/yr, whereas increased adoption of conservation tillage in the corn–soy–feed system could generate up to about 6.2 million MgC/yr at a price of $200/MgC. About half of this potential could be achieved at relatively low carbon prices (in the range of $50 per ton). The model used in this analysis produced estimates of economic potential for soil carbon sequestration potential similar to results produced by much more data-intensive, field-scale models, suggesting that this simpler, aggregate modeling approach can produce credible estimates of soil carbon sequestration potential. Carbon rates were found to vary substantially over the region. Using average carbon rates for the region, the model produced carbon sequestration estimates within about 10% of those based on county-specific carbon rates, suggesting that effects of spatial heterogeneity in carbon rates may average out over a large region such as the central United States. However, the average carbon rates produced large prediction errors for individual counties, showing that estimates of carbon rates do need to be matched to the spatial scale of analysis. Transaction costs were found to have a potentially important impact on soil carbon supply at low carbon prices, particularly when carbon rates are low, but this effect diminishes as carbon prices increase. This research was supported in part by the Montana State Agricultural Experiment Station, by the EPA STAR Climate Change program and by the Consortium for the Agricultural Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases. Although the research described in this article has been funded wholly or in part by the United States Environmental Protection Agency through grant R-82874501-0 to Montana State University, it has not been subjected to the Agency’s required peer and policy review and therefore does not necessarily reflect the views of the Agency and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

农业气象服务效益评估方法研究

科学、准确的对我国农业气象服务效益进行评估和分析,对政府和企业正确决策,提高农业气象防灾减灾能力,具有重要的作用和意义。结合农业气象服务的特点,采用剂量-反应分析和德尔菲法相结合的研究方法,研究提出了农业气象服务效益评估模式。该评估模式以典型单位的气象服务贡献率的实际测定值为参考值,运用专家评估法,由农业专家估测出气象服务在该农业生产中的贡献率,以此为基础分析评估出农业气象服务效益值。应用这一评估模式,对河南省农业气象服务效益进行了实证分析评估。结果表明,种植业气象服务贡献率为6.90 %,而后依次是牧业4.20 %、林业3.93 %、农林牧渔服务业3.36 %和渔业2.90 %。同时,分析研究了2007年以来,河南省农业气象服务效益的动态变化,研究表明,气象服务效益值随着农业产值的增加而不断提高,从2007年128.27亿元攀升至2010年191.65亿元,年均增速达到14.32 %。河南省农业气象服务平均贡献率保持在5.60 %-5.90 %之间,这一比率远高于全国,由此也说明了农业气象服务对河南省农业生产的重要作用。     

运用地理信息系统技术实现农业气候区划

阐述了全国第三次农业气候区划的必要性,介绍了地理信息系统技术,及地理信息系统在全国第三次农业气候区划(试点)工作中的应用及实现。     

黔东南气象信息网站开发、建设与应用技术总结

随着信息技术的迅猛发展，Internet的应用已深入到人们的日常生活中，气象信息网站的建立成为一种必要。基于此我们开发建设了黔东南气象信息网站，该网站现已成为黔东南互联网的重要信息源，对气象部门服务能力和业务水平的提升具有重要意义，本文在剖析了网站开发和建设使用技术的基础上，介绍了该网站的使用情况。     

“农经网”已成为乐山农村信息化服务体系建设的重要内容

四川农村综合经济信息网(以下简称“农经网”)是四川省委、省政府为建设农村市场、科技、信息三大服务体系，推进农业产业化而采取的一项重要举措。也是四川省气象局发挥自身人才技术优势，积极拓展为农服务领域，促农增收的具体行动。自2001年建成以来，已在全省各地的农业、农村工作中发挥了重要的信息服务与科技支撑作用，为各级政府和农民提供市场信息80多万条，访问量超过200万人次。在乐山，已成为农村信息化服务体系建设的重要内容。     

"农经网"已成为乐山农村信息化服务体系建设的重要内容

四川农村综合经济信息网(以下简称"农经网")是四川省委、省政府为建设农村市场、科技、信息三大服务体系,推进农业产业化而采取的一项重要举措.也是四川省气象局发挥自身人才技术优势,积极拓展为农服务领域,促农增收的具体行动.自2001年建成以来,已在全省各地的农业、农村工作中发挥了重要的信息服务与科技支撑作用,为各级政府和农民提供市场信息80多万条,访问量超过200万人次.在乐山,已成为农村信息化服务体系建设的重要内容.     

基于信息扩散理论的四川盆地农业旱灾风险评估

采用四川盆地农业旱灾灾情资料数据,基于信息扩散理论,研究了不同风险水平下的农业旱灾发生的概率及其分布,并对四川盆地的农业旱灾风险进行区划。结果表明:正态信息扩散方法可以较好地拟合农业旱灾受灾率的风险分布。与20世纪末相比,21世纪初四川盆地的眉山、重庆等地区发生受灾率xi≥10%和xi≥40%的农业旱灾风险增加。以受灾率xi≥5%和xi≥40%的超越概率作为农业旱灾风险区划阈值,四川盆地农业旱灾风险表现出区域性差异,农业干旱灾害高风险区位于巴中、中江、泸县等地区;西部地区发生农业干旱灾害的风险较小,与该地区丰富的降水量以及平原地形有关。该风险区划结果较为合理,可为当地政府防范农业旱灾提供决策依据。     

基于相对状态符号信息的分布式优化算法

针对网络化多智能体的分布式优化问题,本文讨论一种只利用邻居相对状态的符号信息的分布式算法.该算法不要求与图相关的权重矩阵是双随机矩阵.首先利用优化理论中的惩罚函数法解释该算法,然后分析算法在静态图上的收敛性以及收敛速度.与现有使用邻居相对状态的完整信息的分布式梯度下降算法相比,所提算法的收敛速度并没有本质上降低.另一方面,将所提算法扩展到确定性和随机性的时变图上,并给出相应的收敛性结论.最后,通过数值仿真实验验证算法的有效性.