A simplified method for predicting rainfall-induced mobility of active landslides

This paper deals with the landslides that are reactivated by a groundwater level increase owing to rainfall. These landslides are usually characterized by low displacement rate with deformations essentially concentrated within a narrow shear zone above which the unstable soil mass moves like a rigid body (i.e., with a horizontal displacement profile that is essentially constant with depth). In view of this evidence, a new method based on a simple sliding block model is proposed in the present study for a preliminary evaluation of landslide mobility. Unlike other existing methods that provide an evaluation of landslide mobility on the basis of groundwater level measurements, the present method directly relates landslide movements to rain recordings. This possibility constitutes a significant advantage from a practical viewpoint because it allows future displacement scenarios to be predicted from expected rainfall scenarios. In addition, the present method requires a limited number of parameters as input data, many of which can be obtained from conventional geotechnical tests. To evaluate the other parameters involved, an efficient calibration procedure is also proposed. Four case studies documented in the literature are analyzed to assess the capability of the present method to reproduce the main features of the slope response to rainfall. In all these case studies, both groundwater level variations and landslide displacements observed in field are well approximated by the method.     

水在滑坡变形过程中所起作用的探讨

文章以黄腊石滑坡群中的两个相邻滑坡(大石板滑坡和石榴树包滑坡)为例,研究了水在这两个滑坡产生过程中的作用,结论为:长江水位的抬升一方面抬高了滑体中的地下水位,另一方面使石榴树包滑坡约1/3的滑体浸泡在江水中,造成其发生多次滑塌;降水一方面引发坡面泥石流,另一方面使滑体的地下水位出现变化,增加滑体重量,软化滑带;地下水的静水压力和动水压力是促使大石板滑坡产生变形的主要影响因素,却是石榴树包滑坡变形的次要影响因素,地下水在石榴树包滑坡变形中的作用主要表现为软化滑带、降低滑带的抗剪强度。     

硬土软岩滑坡近水平滑移的离心机模型试验研究

中国西北地区存在大量的新近纪硬土软岩滑坡灾害,为研究该类滑坡的变形特征,开展两组离心机模型试验模拟滑带劣化引起滑坡变形破坏的全过程,获取模型坡体土压及位移的实时变化曲线。研究表明,当软弱带强度降低时,硬土软岩滑坡的上部滑体呈块体状滑动,在快速运动滑动过程中,滑体呈现块状平移,不会彻底解体、液化;硬土软岩滑坡中前部出现水平应力集中,导致下伏滑带塑性流动变形,诱发其中前部上覆滑体的水平运动,并向滑坡后缘扩展,最终形成多级水平滑动。     

Three-dimensional numerical simulations of the Downie Slide to test the influence of shear surface geometry and heterogeneous shear zone stiffness

Massive slow-moving landslides often exhibit deformation patterns which vary spatially across the landslide mass and temporally with changing boundary conditions. Understanding the parameters controlling this behaviour, such as heterogeneous material properties, complex landslide geometry and the distribution of groundwater, is fundamental when making informed design and hazard management decisions. This paper demonstrates that significant improvements to the geomechanical analysis of massive landslides can be achieved through rigorous, three-dimensional numerical modelling. Simulations of the Downie Slide incorporate complex shear zone geometries, multiple water tables and spatial variation of shear zone stiffness parameters to adequately reproduce real slope behaviour observed through an ongoing site monitoring program. These three-dimensional models are not hindered by shortfalls typically associated with two-dimensional analysis, for example the ability to accommodate lateral migration of material, and they out-perform more simplified three-dimensional models where bowl-shaped shear geometries are incapable of reasonably reproducing observed deformation patterns.     

基于滑带强度参数动态演化的滑坡稳定性研究

基于滑带应力状态分析和室内试验,提出了基于滑带强度参数动态演化的滑坡稳定性评价方法,并将应力状态作为评价滑面力学参数的主要指标,以合理地反映滑面强度状态对滑坡稳定性的影响。通过室内试验,获得了滑面强度参数与工程性状、力学参数之间的量化关系,在该基础上,通过数值计算,对滑面的力学参数和滑坡的稳定性进行三维计算。计算结果表明,利用提出的方法能较好地反映出滑带强度参数的空间分区特征。同时,对工况变动情况下滑带的强度参数进行量化取值,并对滑坡的稳定性进行动态计算,提出的计算方法更能体现出滑坡力学参数与稳定性的动态变化过程。     

矿物成分、特征地球化学组分对水在滑带形成中作用的指示意义:以三峡库区大型滑坡为例

弄清滑坡滑带抗剪强度降低的根本原因是滑坡形成机理研究和滑坡活动趋势预测的主要内容之一。水是滑带形成过程中导致其抗剪强度衰减的最活跃因素之一。三峡库区两个大型滑坡实例分析显示,滑带及其周围岩土矿物成分、地球化学成分的变化特征指示滑带形成与水-岩(土)物理、化学作用的方式及作用程度,从而证实矿物学、地球化学研究方法和理论是揭示滑带抗剪强度降低内在机理的有效途径之一。三峡库区黄土坡滑坡临江I#崩滑体和泄滩滑坡滑带土及其周围岩土矿物学、主量化学元素的含量变化特征指示:前者滑带形成过程中,滑带部位地下水因大气降水补给、地下水的氧化作用活跃,导致滑带土抗剪强度减低,其主要原因是其中泥灰岩碎屑的水解泥化作用、方解石溶解作用和伊利石向伊-蒙混层矿物的转化作用;后者滑带形成过程中,滑带部位地下水与外界水力联系较差、地下水的还原作用强烈,滑带部位长石化学风化、次生粘土矿物增多,可知由伊利石转化的伊-蒙混层矿物增多是导致滑带土抗剪强度衰减的主要原因。     

Site scale modeling of slow-moving landslides,a 3D viscoplastic finite element modeling approach

This paper presents an advanced 3D numerical methodology to reproduce the kinematics of slow active landslides, more precisely, to reproduce the nearly constant strain rate (secondary creep) and the acceleration/deceleration of the moving mass due to hydrological changes. For this purpose, finite element analyses are performed in a large area covering a long time-span (12 years), in order to exhibit different interacting slope movements. First, we perform a stability analysis using the shear strength reduction (SSR) technique with a Mohr-Coulomb failure criteria. It is done in order to compute factors of safety (FS) and to identify two different scenarios, the first one being stable (FS > 1) and the second one being unstable (FS < 1). In the studied test case, the Portalet landslide (Central Spanish Pyrenees), the first scenario corresponds to an initial stable configuration of the slope and the second one to an unstable excavated configuration. Second, taking the first scenario as an initial condition, a time-dependent analysis is performed using a coupled formulation to model solid skeleton and pore fluids interaction, and a simplified ground water model that takes into account daily rainfall intensity. In this case, a viscoplastic constitutive model based on Perzyna’s theory is applied to reproduce soil viscous behavior and the delayed creep deformation due to the excavation. The fluidity parameter is calibrated to reproduce displacements measured by the monitoring systems. Our results demonstrate that 3D analyses are preferable to 2D ones for reproducing in a more realistic way the slide behavior. After calibration, the proposed model is able to simulate successfully short- and medium-term predictions during stages of primary and secondary creep.     

Uncertainty quantification in the calibration of a dynamic viscoplastic model of slow slope movements

Most landslides occurring in Italy consist of shallow-translational movements, which involve fine, essentially clayey material. They are usually characterized by low velocities, typically of few centimeters per year. The main triggering factor is hydrologic, since movements are usually strictly connected to groundwater level fluctuations. This slow and periodical trend can be interpreted by a viscous soil response, and in order to catch the actual kinematics of the soil mass behavior, a dynamic analysis should be adopted. This paper discusses the case of the Alverà mudslide, located in the Northern Alps (Italy), for which a very detailed and almost 9-year-long monitoring database, including displacements and groundwater levels records, is available. A well-defined dynamic viscoplastic model, capable of returning a displacement prediction and a mobilized shear strength angle estimate from a groundwater level input, was considered. A first deterministic calibration proved the ability of the model to reproduce the mudslide overall displacements trend if a suitable reduction of the mobilized angle _0\varphi ^{\prime }_{0} is allowed. Then, an uncertainty quantification analysis was performed by measuring the model parameters variability, and all parameters could be represented using a probability density function and a correlation structure. As a consequence, it was possible to define a degree of uncertainty for model predictions, so that an assessment of the model reliability was obtained. The final outcome is believed to represent an important advancement in relation to hazard assessment and for future landslide risk management.     

Permanent Scatterers for landslide investigations: outcomes from the ESA-SLAM project

Within the SLAM project (Service for Landslide Monitoring), launched in 2003 by the European Space Agency (ESA) the Permanent Scatterers (PS) technique, a multi-image interferometric approach, coupled with the interpretation of aerial-photos and optical satellite images, was carried out for landslide investigations. The PS analysis was applied at a regional scale as support for landslide inventory mapping and at local scale for the monitoring of single well-known slope movements. For the integration of the PS measurements within a landslide inventory the Arno river basin (Italy) was chosen as test site for the presence of a high number of mass movements (to date about 300 areas at high landslide risk and more than 27,000 individual landslides mapped by the institutional authorities). About 350 SAR images have been interferometrically processed by means of the PS technique, with the detection of about 600,000 PS. The use of optical images contributed spatial meaning to the point-wise information provided by the PS, making it easier to identify terrain features related to slope instability and the landslide boundaries. Here we describe the employed methodology and its impact in the updating of a preexisting landslide inventory. 6.8% of the total number of landslides were characterized by ground displacement measurements from the PS: 6.1% of already mapped landslides and 0.8% of new unstable areas detected through the PS analysis. Moreover, most of the PS are located in urban areas, showing that the proposed methodology is suitable for landslide mapping in areas with a quite high density of urbanization, but that over vegetated areas it still suffers from the limitations induced by the current space-borne SAR missions (e.g. temporal de-correlation). On the other hand, the use of InSAR for the monitoring of single slow landslides threatening built-up areas has provided satisfactory results, allowing the measurement of superficial deformations with high accuracy on the landslide sectors characterized by a good radar reflectivity and coherence.     

Permanent Scatterers for landslide investigations: outcomes from the ESA-SLAM project

Within the SLAM project (Service for Landslide Monitoring), launched in 2003 by the European Space Agency (ESA) the Permanent Scatterers (PS) technique, a multi-image interferometric approach, coupled with the interpretation of aerial-photos and optical satellite images, was carried out for landslide investigations. The PS analysis was applied at a regional scale as support for landslide inventory mapping and at local scale for the monitoring of single well-known slope movements. For the integration of the PS measurements within a landslide inventory the Arno river basin (Italy) was chosen as test site for the presence of a high number of mass movements (to date about 300 areas at high landslide risk and more than 27,000 individual landslides mapped by the institutional authorities). About 350 SAR images have been interferometrically processed by means of the PS technique, with the detection of about 600,000 PS. The use of optical images contributed spatial meaning to the point-wise information provided by the PS, making it easier to identify terrain features related to slope instability and the landslide boundaries. Here we describe the employed methodology and its impact in the updating of a preexisting landslide inventory. 6.8% of the total number of landslides were characterized by ground displacement measurements from the PS: 6.1% of already mapped landslides and 0.8% of new unstable areas detected through the PS analysis. Moreover, most of the PS are located in urban areas, showing that the proposed methodology is suitable for landslide mapping in areas with a quite high density of urbanization, but that over vegetated areas it still suffers from the limitations induced by the current space-borne SAR missions (e.g. temporal de-correlation). On the other hand, the use of InSAR for the monitoring of single slow landslides threatening built-up areas has provided satisfactory results, allowing the measurement of superficial deformations with high accuracy on the landslide sectors characterized by a good radar reflectivity and coherence.     

Landslides in Sado Island of Japan: Part I. Case studies, monitoring techniques and environmental considerations

A sufficient knowledge on the kinematics and development of landslides helps to adopt proper measures that can be used to protect slopes and the environment in general. This can be achieved by adequate monitoring programs. This paper presents the findings of intensive monitoring activities carried out on Shiidomari and Katanoo landslides found in Sado Island of Japan. More than one year of observation of the two landslides allowed defining some peculiar futures of their kinematics and style of development. The problem of slope instability in the two areas is generally accredited to various factors. But, both landslides were triggered by heavy rainfalls and snowmelt. Because of the outline of the area and the presence of relict topographic features, the Shiidomari landslide is considered to be a large-scale reactivation of old slope failures. The Katanoo landslide is, however, a first-time case. Geophysical investigations and drilling activities in Shiidomari indicated the presence of two slip planes. The deepest (80–100 m) of these is controlled by existing lineaments. Monitoring data suggests that the body of the landslide has subsided as much as 1.16 m just below the main scarp, but a centimeter in the central region. The toe sector also experienced a significant amount of subsidence, but this was counter-balanced by an uplift on the opposite side of the landslide. Hence, the landslide seems not any more active along the deepest slip surface, although it may extend upward and define a series of shallow shear planes around the crown. In the case of Katanoo, the landform characteristics, differential weathering, the road cut and groundwater fluctuations appeared to contribute much to determine the exact location of the landslide. Extensional cracks that preceded the landslide can be related to heavy rainfalls and the cold and warm cycles thereafter. Subsurface investigations and monitoring works indicated that the landslide has two slide blocks with different slip planes. During the observation period, the upper part of the landslide responded more effectively to rainfall and snowmelt than the middle and lower sections. The corresponding movements, however, appeared to settle about three months after failure. There were also little strain transmissions in boreholes and no significant change in the characteristics of the landslide. The kinematics of deformation of many of the slopes in Sado Island resembles that of Shiidomari landslide. But mass movements along highways and mountain roads are usually similar to Katanoo. Landslides of the type like Shiidomari may not show sudden and drastic failures, but are usually long lasting and can reactivate repeatedly along new, shallow shear planes. Monitoring works and long-term supervisions in these types of landslides are useful to identify impending failures and take the right measures before they brought about large-scale destruction to the environment.     

滑坡防治前后滑带土基质吸力特征研究

降雨使坡内地下水位上升,坡体的基质吸力和暂态孔隙水压力会随着降雨过程和时间呈现不同的变化趋势。采用抗滑桩、挡墙等工程防治后,针对滑坡体滑带土的性质变化以及抗滑结构的设置是否会影响到滑坡体的自然排水通道,导致坡体地下水位的抬升,从而影响滑坡防治效果等问题进行了研究。以鹰厦线K290滑坡为主线,通过开展滑坡饱和-非饱和渗流模型试验与数值分析,探讨了降雨入渗及地下水位变化下滑坡体及滑带土体积含水率与基质吸力的变化规律,以及其对滑坡防治前后坡体渗流场的影响。在此基础上,探讨了滑带土基质吸力对抗剪强度的贡献。研究表明：防治前后滑坡体及滑带土基质吸力受降雨强度等条件影响明显,不同深度处滑带土基质吸力变化呈现不同的变化规律,在土质滑坡的防治中应考虑抗滑桩的布置对滑带土性质的影响。     

Landslide hazards and mitigation measures at Gangtok, Sikkim Himalaya

Landslides and other mass movements are serious geo-environmental hazards in the Himalayas. Massive landslides killing tens of thousands of people with catastrophic damages have occurred in the Eastern Himalayan State of Sikkim, which shares common borders with Tibet, Nepal, and Bhutan. This paper describes the investigations carried out on recent landslides in Gangtok, Sikkim, India, with emphasis on the triggering mechanisms that have contributed to the release and creep of natural slopes in the region. It is believed that the intense rainfall in the region not only contributes to rapid erosion and weathering of the rock mass, but also increases the groundwater level that leads to reduction in the stability of natural slopes. A landslide instrumentation programme that includes placement of settlement pillars and piezometers is underway to predict the behaviour of landslides in the area.     

Landslides in the North of Lisbon Region (Portugal): Conditioning and triggering factors

Detailed geomorphological mapping carried out in 5 sample areas in the North of Lisbon Region allowed us to collect a set of geological and geomorphological data and to correlate them with the spatial occurrence of landslide. A total of 597 slope movements were identified in a total area of 61.7 km², which represents about 10 landslides per km².The main landslide conditioning factors are: lithology and geological structure, slope angle and slope morphology, land use, presence of old landslides, and human activity.The highest landslide density occurs in Cretaceous marls and marly limestones, but the largest movements are in Jurassic clays, marls and limestones.The landslide density is higher on slopes with gradients above 20 °, but the largest unstable area is found on slopes of 10 ° to 15 °, thus reflecting the presence of the biggest slope movements. There is a correlation between landslides and topographical concavities, a fact that can be interpreted as reflecting the significance of the hydrological regime in slope instability.Concerning land use, the highest density of landslides is found on slopes covered with shrub and undergrowth vegetation.About 26% of the total number of landslides are reactivation events. The presence of old landslides is particularly important in the occurrence of translational slides and complex and composite slope movements.20% of the landslide events were conditioned by anthropomorphic activity. Human's intervention manifests itself in ill-consolidated fills, cuts in potentially unstable slopes and, in a few cases, in the changing of river channels.Most slope movements in the study area exhibit a clear climatic signal. The analysis of rainfall distribution in periods of recognised slope instability allows the distinction of three situations: 1) moderate intensity rainfall episodes, responsible for minor slope movements on the bank of rivers and shallow translational slides, particularly in artificial trenches; 2) high intensity rainfall episodes, originating flash floods and most landslides triggered by bank erosion; 3) long-lasting rainfall periods, responsible for the rise of the groundwater table and triggering of landslides with deeper slip surfaces.     

Surface Microtextures of Slipping Zone Soil of Some Landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir District and Their Significance

The mineral assemblage and content and surface microtextures of slipping zone soil of several landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir District have been analyzed using the scanning electron microscope (SEM) and X-ray diffractometer (XRD). All the mineral assemblages are similar in these landslides. The main minerals are montmorillonite, illite, kaolinite, chlorite, quartz and feldspar. There are two kinds of surface microtexture in the slipping zone soil, i.e., linear scratches and arcuate scratches. Based on analyses of the changes of the microtextures, one can obtain information about the number, directions and stages of landslide movements. The authors have also studied the mechanism of landslide formation, evaluated the stability of landslides and revival possibility of ancient landslides and forecasted the activity of similar landslides in different districts. The surface microtexture features of stable landslides and mobile landslides are summarized and it is concluded that the existence of filam     

The landslides threatening Tasova town (Central Anatolia, Turkey) and their environmental impacts

There exist a number of landslides along the north Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) between Tasova and Alparslan in Amasya province in Turkey. These landslides extending over an area of 2.5 × 6.0 km are triggered by steepening of slopes due to undercutting by the Yesilirmak River and groundwater fluctuations. The landslides have affected 30 buildings in the western part of Tasova. In this study, in order to investigate the engineering geological characteristics of the landslides and their environmental impacts, representative samples from geological units were collected and a total of six boreholes were drilled. Plastic pipes were installed into the boreholes to measure the groundwater fluctuations and to determine the position of the sliding surface. For a two-year monitoring period, using a GPS linked to a fixed station system, the magnitude of the movements ranged between 11.7 and 17.6 cm at the toe of landslide. The landslides that occurred in the study area were in the form of retrogressive circular and multiple circular failures. The factor of safety along a number of cross-sections calculated by the limit-equilibrium method of analysis is 0.96 in static condition. After further analyses, construction of a toe buttress with surface drainage may be suggested as a remedial measure to minimize the effects of these landslides.     

土质滑坡运动全过程物质点法模拟及其应用

物质点法（MPM）属于一种无网格数值计算方法,它可导入各种土体本构模型,考虑土体流固耦合行为,能够有效模拟土质滑坡大变形及超大变形。本文介绍了物质点法基本原理、控制方程与求解格式;基于5种物质点法的多孔介质表征模型,简要回顾了土质滑坡运动全过程物质点法模拟的最新研究进展。采用单套单相物质点模型,对深圳“12·20”人工堆填土滑坡全过程进行了物质点法模拟,使用了线性加载方式确定初始应力场,并使用了Drucker-Prager屈服准则弹塑性本构模型、GIMP算法与MUSL求解格式。模拟结果表明,该边坡发生失稳后,最大滑距达510m,滑坡范围纵向间距为1050m,最小滑坡角5.95°,均与观测结果相吻合。土体内部等效塑性应变区的演化趋势显示,滑坡机制为渐进式破坏,具体表现为:坡趾土体首先沿基岩界面发生剪切破坏,随后坡顶出现拉张裂隙,坡趾与坡顶塑性区分别沿基岩界面向坡体内部发育,形成贯通滑动面后滑动加速,超大变形出现。物质点法模拟滑坡运动全过程有助于理解滑坡致灾行为,可为滑坡防治提供参考。     

青藏高原大型深层蠕滑型滑坡变形机制研究进展与展望

大型深层蠕滑型滑坡在青藏高原怒江、澜沧江、金沙江、岷江等地形地貌和地质构造复杂区极为发育,具有规模大、滑带深、渐进变形破坏显著等特点,按照滑坡空间结构主要有后缘洼地蠕滑型、顺层基岩蠕滑型和厚层松散堆积物蠕滑型等3种类型,往往表现为长期蠕滑-间歇性复活-整体滑动.通过梳理大型深层蠕滑型滑坡稳定性影响因素、滑带土工程地质力学性质、地下水渗流场特征与降雨诱发滑坡滞后性以及渐进变形破坏机制和动态稳定性等4个方面的研究进展,提出了3个关键科学问题与4个主要研究方向.建议加强深层滑带土在渗流场-应力场等多场耦合作用下的工程地质力学特性研究、加强剖析滑坡岩土体的非均质渗透特性及地下水分布特征分析,研究不同雨强和历时条件下降雨有效入渗机理,研究大型深层蠕滑型滑坡的降水入渗响应过程和降水诱发滑坡变形的滞后性,提出基于渐进变形破坏的滑坡动态稳定性评价方法,为地质灾害早期判识和综合防范提供理论依据.     

白龙江流域坪定-化马断裂带滑坡特征及其形成演化

沿坪定-化马断裂带发育数个大型或巨型滑坡。这些断裂带滑坡特点明显,成因类似,各滑坡一般发育多个次级滑坡体,滑坡岩土体由次生黄土、断裂带强风化带、断裂破碎带组成,具双层或三层结构。滑坡总体顺断裂走向下滑,历史上曾多次活动。近年来变形监测资料表明,断裂带滑坡目前处于匀速蠕变阶段,表现为蠕滑→拉裂（塑流拉裂）→次级滑坡体启动下滑的特征。它是在断裂活动、地震、降雨、人类工程活动等内外动力耦合作用下形成的,坪定-化马断裂的长期活动为滑坡形成提供了前提条件,断裂带的岩土体性质是滑坡长期活动的物质基础,而降雨、地震、坡脚开挖等是滑坡体失稳下滑的主要诱发因素。因而,有必要进一步研究断裂带滑坡在内外动力耦合作用下的成灾机理,为滑坡灾害防治预警提供科学依据。     

The application of an innovative inverse model for understanding and predicting landslide movements (Salazie cirque landslides,Reunion Island)

The prediction of landslide movement acceleration is a complex problem, among others identified for deep-seated landslides, and represents a crucial step for risk assessment. Within the scope of this problem, the objective of this paper is to explore a modelling method that enables the study of landslide function and facilitates displacement predictions based on a limited data set. An inverse modelling approach is proposed for predicting the temporal evolution of landslide movement based on rainfall and displacement velocities. Initially, the hydrogeology of the studied landslides was conceptualised based on correlative analyses. Subsequently, we applied an inverse model with a Gaussian-exponential transfer function to reproduce the displacements. This method was tested on the Grand Ilet (GI) and Mare-à-Poule-d’Eau (HB) landslides on Reunion Island in the Indian Ocean. We show that the behaviour of landslides can be modelled by inverse models with a bimodal transfer function using a Gaussian-exponential impulse response. The cumulative displacements over 7 years of modelling (2 years of calibration period for GI, and 4 years for HB) were reproduced with an RMSE above 0.9. The characteristics of the bimodal transfer function are directly related to the hydrogeological functioning demonstrated by the correlative analyses: the rapid reaction of a landslide can be associated with the effect of a preferential flow path on groundwater level variations. Thus, this study shows that the inverse model using a Gaussian-exponential transfer function is a powerful tool for predicting deep-seated landslide movements and for studying how they function. Beyond modelling displacements, our approach effectively demonstrates its ability to contribute relevant data for conceptualising the sliding mechanisms and hydrogeology of landslides.