Reservoir induced seismicity in the Koyna–Warna region,India: Overview of the recent results and hypotheses

The state of the art in the geological and geophysical study of the region of Koyna and Warna water reservoirs is reviewed. The probable geodynamical factors of induced seismicity are discussed. The detailed geophysical surveys, satellite geodetic data, and time history of the seismicity in the region reveal a complicated pattern of the structure and recent geodynamics of the region. The existing data suggest that the induced seismicity is here most likely to be caused by the regional (intraplate) stresses driving the displacements along the orthogonal network of the faults whose strength has dropped and continues decreasing due to the reservoir impoundment and operation processes. The evolution of the seismicity which started immediately after the rapid filling of the Koyna reservoir in the region of the dam, then rapidly expanded southwards and eventually became concentrated in the region of the subsequently constructed Warna reservoir shows that seismic events can be initiated by a number of factors whose contributions may vary with time. The key ones among them include reservoir loading and its seasonal variations; water saturation of the faults which guide the propagation of the front of fracture, increased permeability, and, probably, mineral transformations (hydrolysis) under the water level fluctuations in the reservoirs; and displacement of the front of the high pore pressure down to the main source zone of the earthquakes at a depth of 6–8 km. Based on the analysis presented in the paper, we outline the directions of the future research aimed at studying the nature and dynamics of induced seismicity in the region of large water reservoirs.     

Triggered and tectonic driven earthquakes in the Koyna–Warna region,western India

Two strong M?>?5.0 earthquakes within a span of six months occurred in a triggered seismicity environment in the Koyna–Warna region in western India in 2000. The region is experiencing continued seismicity since the last five decades indicating that this region is close to critical stresses and minor perturbations in the stresses due to reservoir loading and unloading can trigger earthquakes. In the present study we applied the technique developed for identification of prognostic anomalies for tectonic earthquakes to the Koyna–Warna catalogue prior to these two earthquakes with an aim to study the process of source preparation for triggered earthquakes. In case of tectonic earthquakes, unstable conditions in a source zone develop gradually leading to a metastable zone which shows variations in certain seismicity parameters known as prognostic anomalies. Our results indicate that the variations in seismicity parameters before the two strong earthquakes in the Koyna region have a pattern of prognostic anomalies typical of tectonic earthquakes. We conclude that initiation of failure in a metastable zone can be caused both, by external impacts, reservoir loading and unloading in our case, and internal processes of avalanche-like failure development.     

Hydromechanics of the Koyna–Warna Region, India

Continuous reservoir-induced seismicity has been observed in the Koyna–Warna region in western India following the beginning of impoundment of Koyna and Warna Reservoirs in 1961 and 1985, respectively. This seismicity includes 19 events with M ≥ 5.0 which occurred in 7 episodes (I–VII) between 1967 and 2005 at non-repeating hypocentral locations. In this study, we examined the first six episodes. The seismicity occurs by diffusion of pore pressures from the reservoirs to hypocentral locations along a saturated, critically stressed network of NE trending faults and NW trending fractures. We used the daily lake levels in the two reservoirs, from impoundment to 2000, to calculate the time history of the diffused pore pressures and their daily rate of change at the hypocentral locations. The results of our analysis indicate that Episodes I and IV are primarily associated with the initial filling of the two reservoirs. The diffused pore pressures are generated by the large (20–45 m) annual fluctuations of lake levels. We interpret that critical excess pore pressures >~300 kPa and >~600 kPa were needed to induce Episodes I–III and Episodes IV–VI, respectively, suggesting the presence of stronger faults in the region. The exceedance of the previous water level maxima (stress memory) was found to be the most important, although not determining factor in inducing the episodes. The annual rise of 40 m or more, rapid filling rates and elevated dp/dt values over a filling cycle, contributed to the rapid increase in pore pressure.     

Temporal migration of earthquakes in Koyna–Warna (India) region by pore-fluid diffusion

Continuous occurrences of several thousands of earthquakes in Koyna–Warna region since the initial impoundment (1962) of the Koyna reservoir has attracted the attention of seismologists all over the world to know the exact earthquake physical processes involved. The area has been a site for reservoir-triggered earthquakes for the last four and half decades. Major bursts of seismic activity occurred during 1967, 1973, 1980, 1993, and 2000 and recently in 2005 with magnitudes exceeding 5.0 in the region. A notable southward migration of seismicity has been observed following the impoundment of another reservoir, the nearby Warna reservoir. All the mainshocks suggest that the significant southward migration might be due to pore-pressure diffusion. We have divided the entire period from 1967 to 2007 in several sequences starting by a mainshock of M >5. Each sequence is critically analyzed in terms of triggering by the diffusion process through the fractured medium. The pore-fluid diffusion tensor D for each sequence is estimated based on Darcy’s law. The direction of temporal migration of seismicity of each sequence except 1980 is correlated well with the eigenvectors of diffusion. The fluid flow eigenvectors are constrained with one of the strike directions of the focal mechanisms. The frequency magnitude distribution shows the b value to vary from 0.5 to 1.2. Spatial distribution of the b value further indicates that the area along the major faults is more prone to future earthquake.     

Seasonal Variations in the b-Value of the Reservoir-Triggered Seismicity in the Koyna–Warna Region,Western India

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - Abstract—The analysis of the local earthquake catalog revealed fine features in the behavior of seasonal components of induced seismicity in the...     

On the Dynamics of the Seasonal Components of Induced Seismicity in the Koyna–Warna Region,Western India

The spatial and time dynamics are analyzed for the seasonal components of induced seismicity in the Koyna–Warna region of Western India. The peculiarities of the variations in these components are compared to the changes in the local tectonic regime inferred from the focal mechanism data of the earthquakes. Based on this, the hypotheses about the probable nature of the dynamics in the seasonal components of seismicity are suggested. It is noted that the variations in the seasonal seismic activity after the impoundment of the Koyna reservoir in the north are caused by the spatial migration of the induced seismicity and activation of the normal faults in the south. It is hypothesized that the process of fracture migration from the north to the south at this stage advanced the diffusion of the fluid from the Koyna reservoir, and as the water front reached the southern zone of normal faulting, this caused reactivation of the seasonal seismicity. An explanation is suggested for the stronger response of the seasonal activity in the region of Warna reservoir compared to the Koyna area: in contrast to Koyna, filling the Warna reservoir was geographically close to the area of activated seismicity. It is shown that the localization and sizes of the areas of the instantaneous and delayed components in the seasonal activity of the induced seismicity are determined by the localization and sizes of the areas of high stresses created by the increase in the pore pressure in highly permeable fault zones.     

Erratum to: Seasonal Variations in the b-Value of the Reservoir-Triggered Seismicity in the Koyna–Warna Region,Western India

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - An Erratum to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351322090014     

The seismicity of the Kamchatka region: 1962–2011

This paper reviews the Kamchatka seismicity for a 50-year period of observation. These data were used to carry out a regionalization of Kamchatka’s seismic volume and adjacent areas. In all, ten zones were identified with differing activities and origins of seismicity. A comparative analysis was carried out for the seismicity in the more active zones. We found significant differences between the structures of the southern and the northern segment in the Kamchatka part of the Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone. Seismological data corroborated a relationship between the subduction zone and the underthrusting of the Pacific plate under the Eurasian plate. These data from the 50-year period of observation helped identify a new Koryak seismic belt that encompasses the northwestern coast of the Bering Sea. We provide a brief review of macroseismic effects due to the most significant earthquakes for the 1962–2010 period.     

Enhanced reservoir-induced earthquakes in Koyna region, India, during 1993–95

Reservoir induced earthquakes began to occur in the vicinity of Shivajisagar Lake formed by Koyna Dam in Maharashtra state, western India, soon after its filling started in 1962. Induced earthquakes have continued to occur for the past 34 years in the vicinity of this reservoir, and so far a total of 10 earthquakes of M 5.0, over 100 of M 4 and about 100,000 of M 0.0 have occurred. Every year, following the rainy season, the water level in the reservoir rises and induced earthquakes occur. Seismic activity during 1967–68 was most intense when globally, the largest reservoir induced earthquake occurred on 10 December, 1967. Other years of intense seismic activity are 1973 and 1980. During 1986 another reservoir, Warna, some 20 km south of Koyna, began to be filled. The recent burst of seismic activity in Koyna-Warna region began in August, 1993, and was monitored with a close network of digital and analog seismographs. During August, 1993–December, 1995, 1,272 shocks of magnitude 2 were located, including two earthquakes of M 5.0 and M 5.4 on 8 December, 1993 and 1 February, 1994, respectively. Two parallel epicentral trends in NNE-SSW direction, one passing through Koyna and the other through Warna reservoir are delineated. The 1993 increase in seismicity has followed a loading of 44.15 m in Warna reservoir during 11 June 11, 1993 through August 4, 1993, with a maximum rate of filling being 16 m/week. The larger shocks have been found to be preceded by a precursory nucleation process.     

Temporal and spatial variations of seismicity scaling behavior in Southern México

R/S analysis is used in this work to investigate the fractal correlations in terms of the Hurst exponent for the 1998–2011 seismicity data in Southern Mexico. This region is the most seismically active area in Mexico, where epicenters for severe earthquakes (e.g., September 19, 1985, M_w = 8.1) causing extensive damage in highly populated areas have been located. By only considering the seismic events that meet the Gutenberg–Ritcher law completeness requirement (b = 0.97, M_GR = 3.6), we found time clustering for scales of about 100 and 135 events. In both cases, a cyclic behavior with dominant spectral components at about one cycle per year is revealed. It is argued that such a one-year cycle could be related to tidal effects in the Pacific coast. Interestingly, it is also found that high-magnitude events (M_w ≥ 6.0) are more likely to occur under increased interevent correlations with Hurst exponent values H > 0.65. This suggests that major earthquakes can occur when the tectonic stress accumulates in preferential directions. In contrast, the high-magnitude seismic risk is reduced when stresses are uniformly distributed in the tectonic shell. Such cointegration between correlations (i.e., Hurst exponent) and macroseismicity is confirmed for spatial variations of the Hurst exponent. In this way, we found that, using the Hurst exponent standpoint, the former presumed Michoacan and the Guerrero seismic gaps are the riskiest seismic zones. To test this empirical finding, two Southern Mexico local regions with large earthquakes were considered. These are the Atoyac de Alvarez, Guerrero (M_w = 6.3), and Union Hidalgo, Oaxaca (M_w = 6.6), events. In addition, we used the Loma Prieta, California, earthquake (October 17, 1989, M_w = 6.9) to show that the high-magnitude earthquakes in the San Andreas Fault region can also be linked to the increments of determinism (quantified in terms of the Hurst exponent) displayed by the stochastic dynamics of the interevent period time series. The results revealed that the analysis of seismic activity by means of R/S analysis could provide further insights in the advent of major earthquakes.     

Temporal variation of b value associated with M ��4 earthquakes in the reservoir-triggered seismic environment of the Koyna�CWarna region, Western India

It is generally found that the b values associated with reservoir-triggered seismicity (RTS) are higher than the regional b values in the frequency magnitude relation of earthquakes. In the present study, temporal and spatial variation of b value is investigated using a catalog of 3,000 earthquakes from August 2005 through December 2010 for the Koyna?CWarna region in Western India, which is a classical site of RTS globally. It is an isolated (30?×?20?km²) zone of seismicity where earthquakes of up to M ??5 are found to occur during phases of loading and unloading of the Koyna and Warna reservoirs situated 25?km apart. For the Warna region, it is found that low b values of 0.6?C0.9 are associated with earthquakes of M ??4 during the loading phase. The percentage correlation of the occurrence of an M????4 earthquake with a low b value outside the 1?? or 2?? level is as high as 78?%. A drastic drop in the b value of about 50?% being reported for an RTS site may be an important precursory parameter for short-term earthquake forecast in the future.     

Field experiment in Soultz-sous-Forêts, 1993: Changes of the pattern of induced seismicity

The data of the known field experiment on water injection in the borehole were analyzed. Parameters of self-similarity of seismicity were estimated in comparison with the changes of water pressure. Changes of seismicity parameters that indicate the redistribution of the failure from lower scales to upper are revealed. The total number of earthquakes per series of the water initiation found to be depended exponentially on the water pressure and seismic activity maximum is delayed gradually relative to beginning of initiation. The growth of induced seismicity zone in time differs from diffusion model for water flow in the porous medium. Analysis carried out from laboratory data indicates that diffusion growth of the failure area may be realized in the dry specimen, without fluid. It could be assumed that both kinetic processes — water and the failure diffusion — can be significant for the development of seismicity induced by the water injection.     

Time–frequency characterization of sub-divisional scale seasonal rainfall in India using the Hilbert–Huang transform

Time–frequency characterization is useful in understanding the nonlinear and non-stationary signals of the hydro-climatic time series. The traditional Fourier transform, and wavelet transform approaches have certain limitations in analyzing non-linear and non-stationary hydro-climatic series. This paper presents an effective approach based on the Hilbert–Huang transform to investigate time–frequency characteristics, and the changing patterns of sub-divisional rainfall series in India, and explored the possible association of monsoon seasonal rainfall with different global climate oscillations. The proposed approach integrates the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise algorithm and normalized Hilbert transform method for analyzing the spectral characteristics of two principal seasonal rainfall series over four meteorological subdivisions namely Assam-Meghalaya, Kerala, Orissa and Telangana subdivisions in India. The Hilbert spectral analysis revealed the dynamic nature of dominant time scales for two principal seasonal rainfall time series. From the trend analysis of instantaneous amplitudes of multiscale components called intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), it is found that both intra and inter decadal modes are responsible for the changes in seasonal rainfall series of different subdivisions and significant changes are noticed in the amplitudes of inter decadal modes of two seasonal rainfalls in the four subdivisions since 1970s. Further, the study investigated the links between monsoon rainfall with the global climate oscillations such as Quasi Bienniel Oscillation (QBO), El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Sunspot Number (SN), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) etc. The study noticed that the multiscale components of rainfall series IMF1, IMF2, IMF3, IMF4 and IMF5 have similar periodic structure of QBO, ENSO, SN, tidal forcing and AMO respectively. As per the seasonal rainfall patterns is concerned, the results of the study indicated that for Assam-Meghalaya subdivision, there is a likelihood of extreme rare events at ~0.2 cycles per year, and both monsoon and pre-monsoon rainfall series have decreasing trends; for Kerala subdivision, extreme events can be expected during monsoon season with shorter periodicity (~2.5 years), and monsoon rainfall has statistically significant decreasing trend and post-monsoon rainfall has a statistically significant increasing trend; and for Orissa subdivision, there are chances of extremes rainfall events in monsoon season and a relatively stable rainfall pattern during post-monsoon period, but both monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall series showed an overall decreasing trend; for Telangana subdivision, there is a likelihood of extreme events during monsoon season with a periodicity of ~4 years, but both monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall series showed increasing trends. The results of correlation analysis of IMF components of monsoon rainfall and five climate indices indicated that the association is expressed well only for low frequency modes with similar evolution of trend components.     

The prediction for seismicity trends of M≥8 in the world by analysis of seismicity patterns

After completion of a study on predicting risky zones of earthquake of M≥8 for 1-3 years in the mainland of China,which was supported by Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation(D07018 and D08009),a further study was extended to that of greater magnitudes in the world.Based on the historical earthquake cases,we finished the research report,forecasting global earthquakes with magnitude more than 8.0 using the image analysis of seismicity.In this research report,we summarize 11 abnormal seismicity images for predicting earthquake of M≥8.0 around the world.In our research report,we predicted earthquakes of M≥8.0 from June 2009 to June 2014,the medium term predicting within 5 years period.Among these 5 predictive areas,three earthquakes occurred,which is Samoa M8.1 Earthquake on 29 September 2009,Talca M8.5 Earthquake on 27 January 2010,Chile,and Eastern Sendai M9.0 Earthquake on 11 March 2011,Japan respectively.Here we introduce the main items of the image analysis of seismicity and we predict three earthquakes and think that the image analysis of seismicity can be of help.     

Spatial variations of methane distribution in marine environment and its fluxes at the water–atmosphere interface in the western Sea of Okhotsk

Data of integrated gas-geochemical studies in the 45 cruise of the R/V Akademik M.A. Lavrent’ev in July 2008 were used to study the spatial distribution of methane in the surface seawater layer, the distribution and qualitative composition of hydrocarbon gases in bottom sediments of the northwestern continental shelf, northeastern slope of Sakhalin Island, and Deryugin depression in the Sea of Okhotsk. The specific features of the methane anomalies that form in this case are considered. Tectonic faults and the distribution of oil-and-gas-bearing structures are the main factors governing the formation of hydrocarbon gas fluxes in the study area. The surface water in the entire examined area was found to be oversaturated with methane. A developed model was used to calculated methane fluxes at the water–atmosphere interface and to identify areas with maximal fluxes (up to 324 mol/(km² day).     

Role of reservoirs in sustained seismicity of Koyna-Warna region—a statistical analysis

Koyna-Warna region in western India is a globally recognized site of reservoir-triggered seismicity near the Koyna and Warna reservoirs. The region has been reported with several M?>?5 earthquakes in the last five decades including M6.3 Koyna earthquake which is considered as the largest triggered earthquake worldwide. In the present study, a detailed statistical analysis has been done for long period earthquake catalogues during 1968–2004 of MERI and 2005–2012 of CSIR-NGRI to find out the spatio-temporal influence of the Koyna and Warna reservoirs impoundment on the seismicity of the region. Depending upon the earthquake clusters, we divided the region into three different zones and performed power spectrum and singular spectrum analysis (SSA) on them. For the time period 1983–1995, the earthquake zone near the Warna reservoir; for 1996–2004, the earthquake zone near the Koyna reservoir; and for 2005–2012, the earthquake zone near the Warna reservoir found to be influenced by the annual water level variations in the reservoirs that confirm the continuous role of both the reservoirs in the seismicity of the Koyna-Warna region.     

Migration of sources of small earthquakes in the Garm region and variations in velocity of the Earth’s rotation

The spatial-temporal variations in localization of the sources of earthquakes with H ≥ 14 km are reviewed for the Garm region. The uneven distribution of such earthquakes is related to the block structure: their amount is higher in the weakened zones rather than in blocks. Three weakened zones are characterized by higher activity of deepened seismicity, which varies in time and increases before the earthquakes with K ≥ 12.5. The temporal variations in distribution of earthquake sources with depth allow a suggestion of the relation of the velocity of the Earth’s rotation and activity of deepened seismicity.