A Royalty Revenue Forecast Model for Louisiana

Louisiana receives royalty revenue when minerals are produced on state-owned lands and water bottoms, federal properties within the state, and offshore fields underlying federal and state jurisdiction within 3–6 nautical miles from the coastline. Royalty revenue on oil and gas production has averaged $465 million per year and has contributed 3–7% of the state general revenue over the past decade. The purpose of this article is to develop a royalty revenue forecast model to assist in state budgeting and planning purposes. Producing fields are evaluated within a probabilistic framework to capture the uncertainty associated with future capital outlays and operational changes, and a discovery model is used to generate production from fields expected to be discovered in the future. The forecasts are combined with commodity price scenarios and royalty rate assumptions to generate a royalty revenue outlook for the state. We estimate that cumulative royalty revenue during 2012–2017 will range from $704 million to $1,408 million for oil production and from $286 million to $1,145 million for gas production for commodity prices of 60–120 $/bbl and 2–8 $/Mcf. At $80/bbl and $4/Mcf, cumulative royalty receipts from 2012 to 2017 are estimated at $1,510 million.     

A Scenario-Based Hydrocarbon Production Forecast for Louisiana

Conventional oil and gas productions in Louisiana has been in decline for four decades, but in recent years, new technology and capital investment have opened up a significant new resource play in the Haynesville shale, reversing Louisiana’s gas production decline. The need for long-term forecasting has become more important for state planning and for facilitating efficient regulatory development and incentive programs, as the largest oil and gas fields diminish in productivity and the promise of unconventional resources are realized. The purpose of this article is to present a hydrocarbon production forecast for Louisiana using disaggregate resource classes and a transparent analytic framework. A field-level evaluation is employed for producing fields categorized by primary product, resource category, geographic area, and production class. Undiscovered fields are classified according to conventional and unconventional categories and are modeled using a probabilistic and scenario-based forecast. The analytic framework is described along with a discussion of the model results and limitations of the analysis. Louisiana is in the early stages of transitioning to a primarily gas-producing state, and the manner in which the Haynesville shale develops will play a critical role in deliverability and economic prospects in the future.     

降雨型滑坡预报中计算前期有效降雨量的一种新方法

在许多地区,前期降雨条件对滑坡的发生有重大影响,前期有效降雨量是滑坡预报的一个重要参数。基于累积滑坡频度-降雨量分形关系导出了一种新的计算前期有效降雨量的方法。在这个方法中,降雨衰减系数是由给定区域内引发滑坡的累积降雨阀值随观测时段天数变化的标度指数所决定,滑坡前每天降雨对总有效雨量的贡献并非是独立的,前i天降雨的衰减过程与前i-1天的降雨相关联。     

基于地价监测信息的地价预测模型研究

实现对地价的全面监测、分析和预测,有助于城市基准地价的快速更新和政府对土地资源的宏观控制。过去的地价预警预报模型研究主要存在两点不足：一是没有建立科学完善的数学模型,也没有用多种数学模型相互验证预测结论;二是没有充分利用现有的信息,如地价监测体系的信息,致使预测地价水平与城市实际地价水平、预测走势与实际变化有偏差。该文利用地价监测体系的信息,建立马尔可夫链地价预测模型,并与时间序列模型、空间分布预测模型的预测结果相比较。马尔可夫链地价预测模型是概率分布式预测模型,适用于对地价变化进行科学的概率预测,预测结果与实际情况吻合较好。     

黑河干流洪水预报模型研究

黑河干流上游区水文站点稀少,区间部分支流洪水过程无法控制,中游区河流沿程大量引水灌溉、取水口甚多用水量无法获得,使得以水量平衡原理为基础的洪水演算方法难以应用。针对上述情况,笔者应用系统水文模型理论并对其进行了改进。通过引入系统存贮变量,建立了一个新的黑河干流洪水预报模型-河道洪水演算模型。经1996年,1998年两次特大洪水试报检验,结果表明该模型的预报精度较高,对黑河干流防洪减灾、水利工程科学管理以及水资源优化配置具有重要的作用。     

低碳经济政策对区域发展格局演进的影响——基于动态多区域CGE模型的模拟分析

利用中国动态多区域可计算一般均衡(CGE) 模型,模拟了低碳经济时代实施碳税政策对中国区域发展格局演进的影响。模拟结果显示,如果各地区实施同一碳税政策,对区域经济的影响存在着区域差异,能源富集地区尤其是欠发达地区的经济损失较大,对发达地区则产生正面的影响,因而将扩大区域经济差异。如果实施差别碳税,对能源富集地区和欠发达地区的影响有所减轻,有利于缩小区域经济差异。针对不同区域制定差异化的低碳经济发展政策,有利于兼顾公平和效率,使中国走上低碳发展和区域经济协调的双赢之路。     

中国钾盐资源需求预测及发展远景分析

钾盐主要用于生产钾肥。中国是一个农业大国,但耕地大范围缺钾,严重影响到国家粮食安全及人们的生存发展。概述了当前世界及国内钾盐资源与生产现状,通过借鉴发达国家钾盐消费轨迹,预测了中国未来的钾肥需求。结果表明,中国钾盐消费还处于上升阶期,预计钾肥需求可能在2022~2026年达到峰值,届时钾肥需求将达到1000×104~1100×104t(折K2O)水平。建议钾盐发展与国家农业产业结构调整相适应,根据国家提出的未来化肥用量零增长的目标,优化钾肥品种结构,走差异化道路,提高钾肥利用率,促进产业转型升级,保障工业产品需求和国家粮食安全。     

Coastal morphodynamics and Chenier-Plain evolution in southwestern Louisiana, USA: A geomorphic model

Using 28 topographic profiles, air-photo interpretation, and historical shoreline-change data, coastal processes were evaluated along the Chenier Plain to explain the occurrence, distribution, and geomorphic hierarchy of primary landforms, and existing hypotheses regarding Chenier-Plain evolution were reconsidered. The Chenier Plain of SW Louisiana, classified as a low-profile, microtidal, storm-dominated coast, is located west and downdrift of the Mississippi River deltaic plain. This Late-Holocene, marginal-deltaic environment is 200 km long and up to 30 km wide, and is composed primarily of mud deposits capped by marsh interspersed with thin sand- and shell-rich ridges (“cheniers”) that have elevations of up to 4 m.In this study, the term “ridge” is used as a morphologic term for a narrow, linear or curvilinear topographic high that consists of sand and shelly material accumulated by waves and other physical coastal processes. Thus, most ridges in the Chenier Plain represent relict open-Gulf shorelines. On the basis of past movement trends of individual shorelines, ridges may be further classified as transgressive, regressive, or laterally accreted. Geomorphic zones that contain two or more regressive, transgressive, or laterally accreted ridges are termed complexes. Consequently, we further refine the Chenier-Plain definition by Otvos and Price [Otvos, E.G. and Price, W.A., 1979. Problems of chenier genesis and terminology—an overview. Marine Geology, 31: 251–263] and define Chenier Plain as containing at least two or more chenier complexes. Based on these definitions, a geomorphic hierarchy of landforms was refined relative to dominant process for the Louisiana Chenier Plain. The Chenier Plain is defined as a first-order feature (5000 km²) composed of three second-order features (30 to 300 km²): chenier complex, beach-ridge complex, and spit complex. Individual ridges of each complex type were further separated into third-order features: chenier, beach ridge, and spit.To understand the long-term evolution of a coastal depositional system, primary process–response mechanisms and patterns found along the modern Chenier-Plain coast were first identified, especially tidal-inlet processes associated with the Sabine, Calcasieu, and Mermentau Rivers. Tidal prism (Ω) and quantity of littoral transport (M_total) are the most important factors controlling inlet stability. Greater discharge and/or tidal prism increase the ability of river and estuarine systems to interrupt longshore sediment transport, maintain and naturally stabilize tidal entrances, and promote updrift deposition. Thus, prior to human modification and stabilization efforts, the Mermentau River entrance would be classified as wave-dominated, Sabine Pass as tide-dominated, and Calcasieu Pass as tide-dominated to occasionally mixed.Hoyt [Hoyt, J.H., 1969. Chenier versus barrier, genetic and stratigraphic distinction. Am. Assoc. Petrol. Geol. Bull., 53: 299–306] presented the first detailed depositional model for chenier genesis and mudflat progradation, which he attributed to changes in Mississippi River flow direction (i.e., delta switching) caused by upstream channel avulsion. However, Hoyt's model oversimplifies Chenier-Plain evolution because it omits ridges created by other means. Thus, the geologic evolution of the Chenier Plain is more complicated than channel avulsions of the Mississippi River, and it involved not only chenier ridges (i.e., transgressive), but also ridges that are genetically tied to regression (beach ridges) and lateral accretion (recurved spits).A six-stage geomorphic process-response model was developed to describe Chenier-Plain evolution primarily as a function of: (i) the balance between sediment supply and energy dissipation associated with Mississippi River channel avulsions, (ii) local sediment reworking and lateral transport, (iii) tidal-entrance dynamics, and (iv) possibly higher-than-present stands of Holocene sea level. Consequently, the geneses of three different ridge types (transgressive, regressive, and laterally accreted) typically occur contemporaneously along the same shoreline at different locations.     

一种基于GIS的预报降雨栅格动态生成方法初探

中国大部分地区的降雨监测点位布设稀少且分布不均,特别是大区域的降雨监测和预报存在着不准确现象。利用GIS技术,以都江堰市为研究区,结合降雨随海拔变化规律与实测降雨数据,初步建立了降雨随海拔高度变化的二次曲线计算公式和等高线对应转折拐点降雨图层,参考对比自定义降雨矩阵点图层生成的预报降雨栅格效果,最后在基于AE开发的山地平原过渡区土地生态安全预警系统中,依据等高线拐点降雨图层动态生成研究区降雨栅格,作为该系统下预警指标动态监测模块的主要指标因子,初步解决了研究区降雨监测点位少的情况下,全区预报降雨可视化程度低和局部预报准确度不高的问题,有效地提高了降雨预报的准确性和直观性。     

A MaxEnt Model for Mineral Prospectivity Mapping

Mineral prospectivity mapping is an important preliminary step for mineral resource exploration. It has been widely applied to distinguish areas of high potential to host mineral deposits and to minimize the financial risks associated with decision making in mineral industry. In the present study, a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was applied to investigate its potential for mineral prospectivity analysis. A case study from the Nanling tungsten polymetallic metallogenic belt, South China, was used to evaluate its performance. In order to deal with model over-fitting, varying levels of β _j -regularization were set to determine suitable β value based on response curves and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, as well as via visual inspections of prospectivity maps. The area under the ROC curve (AUC = 0.863) suggests good performance of the MaxEnt model under the condition of balancing model complexity and generality. The relative importance of ore-controlling factors and their relationships with known deposits were examined by jackknife analysis and response curves. Prediction–area (P–A) curves were used to determine threshold values for demarcating high probability of tungsten polymetallic deposit occurrence within small exploration area. The final predictive map showed that high favorability zones occupy 14.5% of the study area and contain 85.5% of the known tungsten polymetallic deposits. Our study suggests that the MaxEnt model can be efficiently used to integrate multisource geo-spatial information for mineral prospectivity analysis.     

我国海岛型旅游地土地空间形态研究

以国内海岛型旅游地空间利用现状为研究基础,通过文献分析,发现影响我国海岛型旅游地空间形态分布的主要因素是:海岛特殊的地形地貌,高敏感的自然环境,复合型用地需求以及游客行为。将以上因素纳入到土地空间形态的理论体系,构建出海岛型旅游地空间形态模型。该模型主要由山体、农田、海滩、居民点、旅游度假区、交通空间及绿化隔离带7个要素构成。各要素以山体为核心,呈圈状层层向外扩展,形成开发强度从内圆向外、由低到高再到低的类同心圆的空间组织模型。     

宁夏本地化WRF辐射预报订正及光伏发电功率预测方法初探

为了开展西北地区宁夏太阳能光伏发电气象预报服务,基于本地化WRF模式产品及当地光伏电站提供的发电功率资料,提出了EOF分析结合MOS预报的技术方法,进行模式辐射预报的统计订正研究,建立逐时光伏发电功率预测模型,得到较为理想的结果。通过EOF-MOS方法进行辐射预报订正,可使辐照度平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）由原来24%左右降低到15%左右,模型预测发电功率MAPE稳定在22%左右。尤其是对于转折性天气趋势把握,具有较高的参考价值。     

A Synoptic Evaluation of Frequencies and Intensities of Extreme Three-and 24-Hour Rainfall in Louisiana*

This research classifies extreme three-hour and 24-hour rainfall events in Louisiana by synoptic weather types (Frontal, Gulf Tropical Disturbance, and Air Mass). These classes were used to analyze differences in frequencies and intensities of extreme rainfall. Significant differences were found in the storm frequencies by weather type. However, no significant differences were detected in rainfall intensities between weather types during either duration. These findings have a bearing on statistical procedures associated with estimating storm probabilities in the region.     

The Impact of Hurricane Katrina on Reported Crimes in Louisiana: A Spatial and Temporal Analysis

This research assesses the impact that one natural disaster—Hurricane Katrina—and subsequent population movements have had on crime in the state of Louisiana. Using Index Crimes from the Louisiana Commission on Law Enforcement and population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, time series of violent and nonviolent crime rates were first analyzed using autoregressive, integrated, and moving average (ARIMA) models. Cumulative percentile maps were created next to analyze spatial trends of crime hot and cold spots in the study area. Overall, results from this research support theories that suggest that crime rates remain stable or actually decline in regions receiving evacuees from areas hardest hit by the hurricane. In the case of Orleans Parish, results are inconclusive due to unreliable crime rates for the period following Hurricane Katrina until the beginning of 2006. It is suggested that crime rates in Orleans Parish fell drastically after the storm. However, some crime types, including robbery, burglary, and larceny, returned to pre-Katrina levels and murder and aggravated assault even exceeded prestorm averages by the end of December 2007.     

基于地质灾害易发程度分区的滑坡预报模型

利用1980～2006年重庆市山体滑坡个例,根据重庆市国土资源局对重庆市地质灾害易发程度等级区划对滑坡个例进行了分类统计.结果表明,降水对不同滑坡危险等级区域的影响是不同的,越容易产生滑坡的区域其前期降水对其的潜在影响越大.根据前期不同量级降水诱发的滑坡发生概率,拟合出了不同地质易发分区的前期降水对滑坡的贡献率指数方程和山体滑坡有效降水量方程,在此基础上建立起了重庆市不同地质灾害易发程度灾害区内山体滑坡预报指标模型,为开展重庆市精细化山体滑坡气象条件等级预报打下良好的基础.     

一种适用于产权地籍管理的时空数据模型

该文提出了一种可适用城镇产权地籍管理的时空数据模型及一整套完善解决地籍变更和地籍历史档案管理的方案。论述了该模型的基本思想、空间对象的存储结构描述、时空数据的组织方式以及宗地的变更策略等，并通过实际的应用论证了该模型的有效性和实用性。     

宁夏区域性强沙尘暴短期预报系统

通过对产生强沙尘暴天气三大因子的实时诊断,从强冷空气、热力不稳定和近地层环境分析入手,依据宁夏强沙尘暴天气预报着眼点,在较全面地对产生强沙尘暴天气的三维空间物理量结构和动力过程所进行的动力过程相似检验前提下,通过渗入有明确天气学意义并对宁夏强沙尘暴有实际预报能力的综合指标和组合模型,在天气系统自动识别技术的支持下,应用螺旋度修正方案确定强沙尘暴落区,建立自动、客观化的宁夏强沙尘暴天气监测和预报系统。     

泥石流预报中前期有效降水量的确定

前期有效降水量是泥石流预报的重要参数之一,对不同类型泥石流的形成有不同的影响形式,对土力类泥石流的形成主要是影响泥石流形成区土体的土壤含水量.在每次前期降水增加的土壤含水量和其有效降水量遵循相同衰减规律,以及每次前期降水的有效降水量和其增加的土壤含水量衰减过程都是相互独立的假设条件下,通过分析土壤含水量随时间的变化关系,可以得到前期有效降水量与前期降水量随时间的变化关系,从而可以确定前期有效降水量.通过对云南蒋家沟降水和土壤含水量的实际观测,对这个关系进行了分析研究,并利用最小二乘法得出了前期有效降水量的计算公式.