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1.
Coastal wetlands are receiving increased consideration as natural defenses for coastal communities from storm surge. However, there are gaps in storm surge measurements collected in marsh areas during extreme events as well as understanding of storm surge processes. The present study evaluates the importance and variation of different processes (i.e., wave, current, and water level dynamics with respect of the marsh topography and vegetation characteristics) involved in a storm surge over a marsh, assesses how these processes contribute to storm surge attenuation, and quantifies the storm surge attenuation in field conditions. During the Fall of 2015, morphology and vegetation surveys were conducted along a marsh transect in a coastal marsh located at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, mainly composed of Spartina alterniflora and Spartina patens. Hydrodynamic surveys were conducted during two storm events. Collected data included wave characteristics, current velocity and direction, and water levels. Data analysis focused on the understanding of the cross-shore evolution of waves, currents and water level, and their influence on the overall storm surge attenuation. Results indicate that the marsh area, despite its short length, attenuates waves and reduces current velocity and water level. Tides have a dominant influence on current direction and velocity, but the presence of vegetation and the marsh morphology contribute to a strong reduction of current velocity over the marsh platform relative to the currents at the marsh front. Wave attenuation varies across the tide cycle which implies a link between wave attenuation and water level and, consequently, storm surge height. Storm surge reduction, here assessed through high water level (HWL) attenuation, is linked to wave attenuation across the front edge of the marsh; this positive trend highlights the reduction of water level height induced by wave setup reduction during wave propagation across the marsh front edge. Water level attenuation rates observed here have a greater range than the rates observed or modeled by other authors, and our results suggest that this is linked to the strong influence of waves in storm surge attenuation over coastal areas.  相似文献   

2.
Storms have long been recognized as agents of geomorphic change to coastal wetlands. A review of recent data on soil elevation dynamics before and after storms revealed that storms affected wetland elevations by storm surge, high winds, and freshwater flushing of the estuary (inferred). The data also indicate that measures of sediment deposition and erosion can often misrepresent the amount and even direction of elevation change because of storm influences on subsurface processes. Simultaneous influence on both surface and subsurface processe by storms means that soil elevation cannot always be accurately estimated from surface process data alone. Eight processes are identified as potentially influencing soil elevation: sediment deposition, sediment erosion, sediment compaction, soil shrinkage, root decomposition (following tree mortality from high winds), root growth (following flushing with freshwater, inferred), soil swelling, and lateral folding of the marsh root mat. Local wetland condition (e.g., marsh health, tide height, groundwater level) and the physical characteristics of the storm (e.g., angle of approach, proximity, amount of rain, wind speed, and storm surge height) were apparently important factors determining the storm's effect on soil elevation. Storm effect on elevation were both permanent (on an ecological time scale) and short-lived, but event short-term changes have potentially important ecological consequences. Shallow soil subsidence or expansion caused by a storm must be considered when calculating local rates of relative sea level rise and evaluating storm effects on wetland stability.  相似文献   

3.
Catastrophe risk models are used to assess and manage the economic and societal impacts of natural perils such as tropical cyclones. Large ensembles of event simulations are required to generate useful model output. For example, to estimate the risk due to wind-driven storm surge and waves in tropical cyclone risk models, computationally efficient parametric representations of the wind forcing are required to enable the generation of large ensembles. This paper presents new results on the impact of including explicit representations of extra-tropical transitioning in parametric wind models used to force storm surge and wave simulations in a catastrophe risk modelling context. Extra-tropical transitioning is particularly important in modelling risk on the Japanese coastline, as roughly 40 % of typhoons hitting the Japanese mainland are transitioning before landfall. Using both a historical and idealized track set, we compare maximum storm surge and wave footprints along the Japanese coastline for models that include, and do not include, explicit representations of extra-tropical transitioning. We find that the inclusion of extra-tropical transitioning leads to lower storm surge (10–20 %) and waves (5–15 %) on the southern Japanese coast, with significantly higher storm surge and waves along the northern coast (25–50 %). The results of this paper demonstrate that useful risk assessment of coastal flood risk in Japan must consider the extra-tropical transitioning process.  相似文献   

4.
Deltaic landscapes, such as the Mississippi River Delta, are sites of extensive conversion of wetlands to open water, where increased fetch may contribute to erosion of marsh edges, increasing wetland loss. A field experiment conducted during a storm passage tested this process through the observations of wave orbital and current velocities in the fringe zone of a deteriorating saltmarsh in Terrebonne Bay, Louisiana. Incident waves seaward of the marsh edge and wave orbital and current velocities immediate landward of the marsh edge were measured. Through a dimensional analysis, it shows that the current and orbital velocities in the marsh fringe were controlled by the incident waves, inundation depth, submergence ratio, and vegetation density. Similarly, it is shown that the longshore currents in the inundated saltmarsh fringe depended on the local wave-induced momentum flux, vegetation submergence, and vegetation density in the fringe zone. The cross-shore current showed the presence of a return flow in the lower region of the velocity profile. A high correlation between the current direction and the local flow-wave energy ratio as well as the vegetation submergence and density is found, indicating the important role of surface waves in the fringe flow landward of an inundated wetland under storm conditions. The field observations shed light on the potential ecological consequences of increased wave activities in coastal saltmarsh wetlands owing to subsidence, sea level rise, limited sediment supply, increases in wind fetch, and storm intensity.  相似文献   

5.
This study investigates impacts of a wave farm on waves, currents and coastal morphology adjacent to the wave farm, which is located in the Southwest of England (the Wave Hub). In this study, we focus on the interaction between waves and tides due to the presence of the wave farm and its effects on wave radiation stresses, bottom shear stresses and consequently on the sediment transport and the coast adjacent to the wave farm, using an integrated numerical modelling system. The modelling system consists of the near-shore wave model SWAN, the ocean circulation model ROMS and a sediment transport model for morphological evolution. The results show that tidal elevation and tidal currents can have a significant effect on waves and that tidal forcing and waves have a significant effect on bottom shear stresses. Waves can impact on the processes related to the bottom boundary layer and mixing intensity in the water column. The wave farm has an impact on the gradients of radiation shear stresses and bottom shear stresses that modify current speeds and wave heights, which in turn impact on the near-shore sediment transport and the resulting morphological changes. Bed load transport rates show a decrease when the wave farm is present, even during storm conditions. The results highlight the importance of the interactions between waves and tides when modelling coastal morphology with presence of wave energy devices.  相似文献   

6.
Nature-based solutions are rapidly gaining interest in the face of global change and increasing flood risks. While assessments of flood risk mitigation by coastal ecosystems are mainly restricted to local scales, our study assesses the contribution of salt marshes and mangroves to nature-based storm surge mitigation in 11 large deltas around the world. We present a relatively simple GIS model that, based on globally available input data, provides an estimation of the tidal wetland’s capacity of risk mitigation at a regional scale. It shows the high potential of nature-based solutions, as tidal wetlands, to provide storm surge mitigation to more than 80% of the flood-exposed land area for 4 of the 11 deltas and to more than 70% of the flood-exposed population for 3 deltas. The magnitude of the nature-based mitigation, estimated as the length of the storm surge pathway crossing through tidal wetlands, was found to be significantly correlated to the total wetland area within a delta. This highlights the importance of conserving extensive continuous tidal wetlands as a nature-based approach to mitigate flood risks. Our analysis further reveals that deltas with limited historical wetland reclamation and therefore large remaining wetlands, such as the Mississippi, the Niger, and part of the Ganges-Brahmaputra deltas, benefit from investing in the conservation of their vast wetlands, while deltas with extensive historical wetland reclamation, such as the Yangtze and Rhine deltas, may improve the sustainability of flood protection programs by combining existing hard engineering with new nature-based solutions through restoration of former wetlands.  相似文献   

7.
Assessments of coupled barrier island-estuary storm response are rare. Hurricane Sandy made landfall during an investigation in Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor estuary that included water quality monitoring, geomorphologic characterization, and numerical modeling; this provided an opportunity to characterize the storm response of the barrier island-estuary system. Barrier island morphologic response was characterized by significant changes in shoreline position, dune elevation, and beach volume; morphologic changes within the estuary were less dramatic with a net gain of only 200,000 m3 of sediment. When observed, estuarine deposition was adjacent to the back-barrier shoreline or collocated with maximum estuary depths. Estuarine sedimentologic changes correlated well with bed shear stresses derived from numerically simulated storm conditions, suggesting that change is linked to winnowing from elevated storm-related wave-current interactions rather than deposition. Rapid storm-related changes in estuarine water level, turbidity, and salinity were coincident with minima in island and estuarine widths, which may have influenced the location of two barrier island breaches. Barrier-estuary connectivity, or the transport of sediment from barrier island to estuary, was influenced by barrier island land use and width. Coupled assessments like this one provide critical information about storm-related coastal and estuarine sediment transport that may not be evident from investigations that consider only one component of the coastal system.  相似文献   

8.
A steady-state subsidence forecast model was developed as a proof of concept to estimate changes in surface elevations of the wetlands and evacuation routes across coastal Louisiana for the years 2015, 2025, 2050, and 2100. Subsidence estimates were derived from an empirical study published by the National Geodetic Survey. Forecasted vertical change was subtracted from current surface elevations. Land and evacuation routes estimated to have surfaces at or below 0 m in elevation, NAVD88, were quantified and classified as vulnerable to inundation hazards. The extent of the coastal zone susceptible to hurricane induced storm surge was also evaluated relative to surge models published by the National Weather Service. The results indicate spatially heterogeneous rates of subsidence that are forecasted to consume nearly 50 % of the existing coastal margin wetlands by 2100. The most significant rate increases are anticipated between 2015 and 2050. Relative to the impact on evacuation routes, subsidence occurring between the 2015 and 2025 forecast years expanded at slower rates when compared to the latter half of the century. Subsidence adjusted storm surge forecasts reveal similar patterns. The methods employed and findings produced demonstrate forecasting capabilities that provide emergency managers and transportation engineers with resources applicable to evacuation modeling, hazard mitigation, environmental sustainability research, costal restoration efforts, and more.  相似文献   

9.
Coastal mangrove–freshwater marsh ecotones of the Everglades represent transitions between marine salt-tolerant halophytic and freshwater salt-intolerant glycophytic communities. It is hypothesized here that a self-reinforcing feedback, termed a “vegetation switch,” between vegetation and soil salinity, helps maintain the sharp mangrove–marsh ecotone. A general theoretical implication of the switch mechanism is that the ecotone will be stable to small disturbances but vulnerable to rapid regime shifts from large disturbances, such as storm surges, which could cause large spatial displacements of the ecotone. We develop a simulation model to describe the vegetation switch mechanism. The model couples vegetation dynamics and hydrologic processes. The key factors in the model are the amount of salt-water intrusion into the freshwater wetland and the passive transport of mangrove (e.g., Rhizophora mangle) viviparous seeds or propagules. Results from the model simulations indicate that a regime shift from freshwater marsh to mangroves is sensitive to the duration of soil salinization through storm surge overwash and to the density of mangrove propagules or seedlings transported into the marsh. We parameterized our model with empirical hydrologic data collected from the period 2000–2010 at one mangrove–marsh ecotone location in southwestern Florida to forecast possible long-term effects of Hurricane Wilma (24 October 2005). The model indicated that the effects of that storm surge were too weak to trigger a regime shift at the sites we studied, 50 km south of the Hurricane Wilma eyewall, but simulations with more severe artificial disturbances were capable of causing substantial regime shifts.  相似文献   

10.
Two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic models are used to simulate the hurricane-induced storm surge and coastal inundation in regions with vegetation. Typically, 2D storm surge models use an enhanced Manning coefficient while 3D storm surge models use a roughness height to represent the effects of coastal vegetation on flow. This paper presents a 3D storm surge model which accurately resolves the effects of vegetation on the flow and turbulence. First, a vegetation-resolving 1DV Turbulent Kinetic Energy model (TKEM) is introduced and validated with laboratory data. This model is both robust enough to accurately model flows in complex canopies, while compact and efficient enough for incorporation into a 3D storm surge-wave modeling system: Curvilinear Hydrodynamics in 3D-Surface WAves Nearshore (CH3D-SWAN). Using the 3D vegetation-resolving model, three numerical experiments are conducted. In the first experiment, comparisons are made between the 2D Manning coefficient approach and the 3D vegetation-resolving approach for simple wind-driven flow. In a second experiment, 2D and 3D representations of vegetation produce similar inundations from the same hurricane forcing, but differences in momentum are found. In a final experiment, varying inundation between seemingly analogous 2D and 3D representations of vegetation are demonstrated, pointing to a significant scientific need for data within wetlands during storm surge events. This study shows that the complex flow structures within vegetation canopies can be accurately simulated using a vegetation-resolving 3D storm surge model, which can be used to assess the feasibility for future wetland restoration projects.  相似文献   

11.
One of the important recent advances in the field of hurricane/storm modelling has been the development of high-fidelity numerical simulation models for reliable and accurate prediction of wave and surge responses. The computational cost associated with these models has simultaneously created an incentive for researchers to investigate surrogate modelling (i.e. metamodeling) and interpolation/regression methodologies to efficiently approximate hurricane/storm responses exploiting existing databases of high-fidelity simulations. Moving least squares (MLS) response surfaces were recently proposed as such an approximation methodology, providing the ability to efficiently describe different responses of interest (such as surge and wave heights) in a large coastal region that may involve thousands of points for which the hurricane impact needs to be estimated. This paper discusses further implementation details and focuses on optimization characteristics of this surrogate modelling approach. The approximation of different response characteristics is considered, and special attention is given to predicting the storm surge for inland locations, for which the possibility of the location remaining dry needs to be additionally addressed. The optimal selection of the basis functions for the response surface and of the parameters of the MLS character of the approximation is discussed in detail, and the impact of the number of high-fidelity simulations informing the surrogate model is also investigated. Different normalizations of the response as well as choices for the objective function for the optimization problem are considered, and their impact on the accuracy of the resultant (under these choices) surrogate model is examined. Details for implementation of the methodology for efficient coastal risk assessment are reviewed, and the influence in the analysis of the model prediction error introduced through the surrogate modelling is discussed. A case study is provided, utilizing a recently developed database of high-fidelity simulations for the Hawaiian Islands.  相似文献   

12.
嫩江流域沼泽湿地景观变化及其水文驱动因素分析   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5       下载免费PDF全文
借助ArcGIS空间分析工具,以嫩江流域1978年、1990年、2000年和2008年4期遥感湿地分布图为基础,采用SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)水文模型将嫩江流域划分为43个子流域,并以沼泽湿地类型为例,将各个子流域内降水和径流信息与湿地退化遥感信息作对比筛选,对全流域以及湿地面积减少严重所在子流域作进一步分析。另外,利用两期土地利用类型数据生成嫩江流域土地利用转移矩阵。结果表明:1978—2008年间嫩江流域沼泽湿地退化严重,尤其以1990—2000年间最为显著。这与流域内降水、径流的变化密切相关,并受到土地利用类型转化以及水利工程建设等人类活动的影响。其中,沼泽湿地面积变化与流域径流系数变化在0.01水平上呈极显著正相关,pearson相关系数为0.90。气候变化和人类活动影响下对湿地水文过程以及水资源的变化,导致湿地日益萎缩,对流域内湿地生态系统平衡产生了负面影响。  相似文献   

13.
Meteorological tsunamis are frequently observed in different tide stations at the southeastern coast of South America. They are associated with the occurrence of atmospheric gravity waves during the passages of cold fronts over the Buenos Aires Province continental shelf. On the other hand, storm surges are also frequent in the region, and they are associated with strong and persistent southerlies, which are also frequent during cold front passages. The impact of meteorological tsunamis in coastal erosion and in the statistics of storm surge trends is discussed in this paper. For this study, fifteen meteorological tsunamis (with maximum wave heights higher than 0.20 m), seven of them simultaneous to the occurrence of storm surge events (with extreme levels higher than |±0.60 m|), are selected from April 2010 to January 2013. The impact of meteorological tsunamis in the storm erosion potential index (SEPI) is evaluated. Not significant differences are obtained between SEPI calculated with and without filtering the meteorological tsunami signal from the storm surge data series. Moreover, several experiments are carried out computing SEPI from synthetic sea level data series, but very low changes (lower than 4 %) are also obtained. It is concluded that the presence of moderate meteorological tsunamis on sea level records would not enhance this index at the Buenos Aires Province coast. On the other hand, taking into account that meteorological tsunamis can reach up the 20–30 % of the storm surge height, it was concluded that the statistics of storm surge trends (and their uncertainties) should be revised for Mar del Plata data series.  相似文献   

14.
Hydrodynamic Response of Northeastern Gulf of Mexico to Hurricanes   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The northeastern Gulf of Mexico in the USA is extremely susceptible to the impacts of tropical cyclones because of its unique geometric and topographic features. Focusing on Hurricanes Ivan (2004) and Katrina (2005), this paper has addressed four scientific questions on this area’s response to hurricanes: (1) How does the shallow, abandoned Mississippi delta contribute to the storm surge? (2) What was the controlling factor that caused the record-high storm surge of Hurricane Katrina? (3) Why are the responses of an estuary to Hurricanes Ivan and Katrina so different from the corresponding surges on the open coast? (4) How would the storm surge differ if Hurricane Katrina had taken a different course? Guided by field observations of winds, waves, water levels, and currents, two state-of-the-art numerical models for storm surges and wind waves have been coupled to hindcast the relevant hydrodynamic conditions, including storm surges, surface waves, and depth-averaged currents. Fairly good agreement between the modeled and measured surge hydrographs was found. The quantitative numerical simulations and simple qualitative analysis have revealed that the record-high storm surge of Hurricane Katrina was caused by the interaction of the surge with the extremely shallow, ancient deltaic lobe of Mississippi River. A hypothetical scenario formed by shifting the path of Hurricane Katrina to the observed path of Hurricane Frederic (1979) resulted in a much smaller surge than that observed in coastal Mississippi and Louisiana. However, this scenario did still result in a high surge near the head of Mobile Bay. One of the important lessons learned from Hurricane Katrina is that the Saffir–Simpson scale should be systematically revised to reflect the topographic and geometric features of a complex, heterogeneous coast, including the possible surge amplification in an estuary or a submerged river delta.  相似文献   

15.
16.
Accurate quantification of hurricane surge probabilities is critically important for coastal planning and design. Recently, the joint probability method has been shown to yield statistically reliable surge probabilities and has quickly become the method of choice for extreme-value surge analysis in the United States. A main disadvantage of the joint probability method is the requirement to have accurate computational surge simulations for a large array of hurricane conditions. Recently, this shortcoming has been overcome by using a variety of interpolation schemes to reduce the number of surge simulations required to an optimal sample for joint probability analysis. One interpolation scheme uses response functions, or physically based dimensionless scaling laws, that consider the relative impact of hurricane landfall position, central pressure, and storm size on surge magnitude at the location of interest. Here, the influence of regional changes in bathymetry on the physically based response function form is investigated. It will be shown that the influence of continental shelf width on surge generation along a continuous coast is coupled with the influence of storm size and that this coupled physical effect can be treated within the response functions via dimensionless scaling. The surge response function model presented here has an algebraic form for rapid calculation. This model performs well for the entire 600-km Texas coast, yielding accurate surge estimates (root-mean-square errors less than 0.22?m and R 2 correlations better than 0.97) with virtually no bias (mean error magnitudes less than 0.03?m).  相似文献   

17.
Sea level rise is causing shoreline erosion, increased coastal flooding, and marsh vulnerability to the impact of storms. Coastal marshes provide flood abatement, carbon and nutrient sequestration, water quality maintenance, and habitat for fish, shellfish, and wildlife, including species of concern, such as the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus). We present a climate change adaptation strategy (CCAS) adopted by scientific, management, and policy stakeholders for managing coastal marshes and enhancing system resiliency. A common adaptive management approach previously used for restoration projects was modified to identify climate-related vulnerabilities and plan climate change adaptive actions. As an example of implementation of the CCAS, we describe the stakeholder plans and management actions the US Fish and Wildlife Service and partners developed to build coastal resiliency in the Narrow River Estuary, RI, in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy. When possible, an experimental BACI (before-after, control-impact) design, described as pre- and post-sampling at the impact site and one or more control sites, was incorporated into the climate change adaptation and implementation plans. Specific climate change adaptive actions and monitoring plans are described and include shoreline stabilization, restoring marsh drainage, increasing marsh elevation, and enabling upland marsh migration. The CCAS provides a framework and methodology for successfully managing coastal systems faced with deteriorating habitat, accelerated sea level rise, and changes in precipitation and storm patterns.  相似文献   

18.
Four sand units deposited by tsunamis and one sand unit deposited by storm surge(s) were identified in a muddy marsh succession in a narrow coastal lowland along the Pacific coast of central Japan. Tsunamis in ad 1498, 1605, 1707 and 1854 that were related to large subduction‐zone earthquakes along the Nankai Trough, and storm surges in 1680 and/or 1699 were responsible for the deposition of these sand units. These sand units are distinguished by lithofacies, sedimentary structures, grain‐size and mineral composition, and radiocarbon ages; their ages are supported by events in local historical records. The tsunami deposits in the study area are massive or parallel‐laminated sands, with associated intraclasts, gravels, draping mud layers and, rarely, a return‐flow subunit. The storm surge deposits are devoid of these characteristics, and are composed of groups of thin, current ripple‐laminated sand layers. The differences in sedimentary structures between the tsunami and storm surge deposits are attributed to the different characteristics of tsunami and storm waves.  相似文献   

19.
Wave–current interaction (WCI) is important in modulating hydrodynamics and water mixing in estuaries, and thereby the transport of water-borne materials. However, the effects of WCI on salt transport and salt intrusion in estuaries during storm events have been rarely examined. In the present study, we use a coupled atmosphere–ocean–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system to investigate the effects of WCI on salt intrusion in the highly stratified Modaomen Estuary during Typhoon Hagupit (2008). The model is validated by the measured wave, water elevation, and surface salinity data, and several diagnostic model experiments are conducted. WCI increases the storm surge by 0.8 m at the peak surge (25% of the total surge height). The wave-breaking-induced momentum flux and the Stokes drift increase the magnitude of the landward flow by 0.3 m s?1 (30% of the total landward flow). In addition, the waves increase water mixing by 2–4 times compared with that without waves. Hence, WCI significantly increases the landward advective salt transport and decreases the steady shear transport. The net effect of the WCI is a significant increase of salt import and salt intrusion during the typhoon event. However, in the aftermath of the storm, the imported salt water is rapidly flushed out by the increased river discharge, and the estuary regains its stratification within one day.  相似文献   

20.
The northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are highly vulnerable to the direct threats of climate change, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, and such risks are exacerbated by land subsidence and global sea-level rise. This paper presents an application of a coastal storm surge model to study the coastal inundation process induced by tide and storm surge, and its response to the effects of land subsidence and sea-level rise in the northern Gulf coast. The unstructured-grid finite-volume coastal ocean model was used to simulate tides and hurricane-induced storm surges in the GoM. Simulated distributions of co-amplitude and co-phase lines for semi-diurnal and diurnal tides are in good agreement with previous modeling studies. The storm surges induced by four historical hurricanes (Rita, Katrina, Ivan, and Dolly) were simulated and compared to observed water levels at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tide stations. Effects of coastal subsidence and future global sea-level rise on coastal inundation in the Louisiana coast were evaluated using a “change of inundation depth” parameter through sensitivity simulations that were based on a projected future subsidence scenario and 1-m global sea-level rise by the end of the century. Model results suggested that hurricane-induced storm surge height and coastal inundation could be exacerbated by future global sea-level rise and subsidence, and that responses of storm surge and coastal inundation to the effects of sea-level rise and subsidence are highly nonlinear and vary on temporal and spatial scales.  相似文献   

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